VUELCO 2nd WORKSHOP “Scientific advice, decision-making, risk communication” on Nov. 7th –8th, 2013 Volcanic Disaster Mitigation System in Japan - Volcanic Disaster Management Council, Volcanic Alert Levels and Evacuation Plan - Fujisan Tomoyuki KANNO Volcano Division, Earthquake and Volcano Department, Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Contents • Introduction – Volcano Monitoring by JMA – Outline of disaster measures • Volcanic Disaster Mitigation System in Japan – Promotion of Volcanic Disaster Mitigation System – Guidelines for evacuation in case of volcanic eruption • Volcanic Disaster Management Council • Volcanic Alert Levels • Specific and practical Evacuation Plan • Asamayama eruption in 2009 and Shinmoedake Eruption in 2011 as case studies • Conclusion – Large eruptions will occur in 21st century in Japan 1 Contents • Introduction – Volcano Monitoring by JMA – Outline of disaster measures • Volcanic Disaster Mitigation System in Japan – Promotion of Volcanic Disaster Mitigation System – Guidelines for evacuation in case of volcanic eruption • Volcanic Disaster Management Council • Volcanic Alert Levels • Specific and practical Evacuation Plan • Asamayama eruption in 2009 and Shinmoedake Eruption in 2011 as case studies • Conclusion – Large eruptions will occur in 21st century in Japan 2 Distribution of Active Volcanoes in Japan and Volcanic Observations and Information Centers • 110 active volcanoes in Japan. (Active volcanoes in Japan are defined as ‘volcanoes that have erupted in approximately the last 10,000 years’ and/or ‘volcanoes with vigorous fumarolic activity at present’) Ryukyu Islands E140° E144° Pacific Plate Ogasawara Islands N32° N28° active volcano Philippine Sea Plate N24° 3 Distribution of Active Volcanoes in Japan and Volcanic Observations and Information Centers • 110 active volcanoes in Japan. • 4 Volcanic Observations and Information Centers in JMA. Sapporo VOIC Ryukyu Islands Sendai VOIC E140° Fukuoka VOIC E144° Ogasawara Islands N32° Tokyo VOIC N28° active volcano N24° VOIC 4 Volcano monitoring by JMA Infrasonic microphone GPS tiltmeter seismometer 100m depth borehole An example of a volcanic observation facility. Distribution of active volcanoes in Japan. The names of 47 volcanoes that are continuously monitored by JMA are indicated in the figure. 5 Volcano monitoring by JMA Tiltmeter Real-time telemeter 傾斜計 Volcano Observation and Information Centers (Sapporo, Sendai, Tokyo, Fukuoka) GPS Infrasonic Seismometer High-sensitive Microphone Visual Camera Mobile Observation (Thermal, Geodetic, Geomagnetic etc.) 6 Volcanic Observations and Information center’s System (VOIS) • Monitoring, processing data and issuing volcanic information. • Renewed in 2010. • 2 core processing systems at Tokyo & Fukuoka. Sapporo VOIC Ryukyu Islands Sendai VOIC E140° Fukuoka VOIC E144° Ogasawara Islands N32° Tokyo VOIC Tokyo VOIS Fukuoka VOIS active volcano VOIC VOIS(Volcano Observation and Information center’s System) N28° N24° 7 Dissemination of Volcanic Warnings • Volcanic Warnings are issued to residents through the media, prefectural offices and local municipalities. 8 Coordinating Committee for Prediction of Volcanic Eruption (CCPVE) 1974~ Regular meeting: 3 times/year Working groups: Volcanic activity evaluation working group Selection of active volcanoes Selection of 47 volcanoes etc. Volcano observation system working group Members : Volcanologists and public offices Universities Research Institutes (NIED, GSJ, PWRI) Geological Survey Institute Cabinet Office Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport Ministry of Education Japan Coast Guard Japan Meteorological Agency (Secretariat) 9 Central Disaster Management Council - Promoting comprehensive countermeasures against disasters - Established in the Cabinet Office Prime Minister, Minister of State for Disaster Management Inquiry Report, Offer opinion Central Disaster Management Council Chairman Prime Minister Members of the Council Minister of State for Disaster Management and all Cabinet Ministers Chief of Designated Public Corporations - Governor of the Bank of Japan - President of the Japanese Red Cross Society - President of NHK - President of NTT Academic experts (4) Organizations for Technical Investigation 10 Administrative system for disaster reduction - National, Prefectural and Municipal level Disaster Countermeasures Basic Act (enacted in 1961) 11 Main responsibilities of municipalities in the field of disaster reduction Responsible for protecting lives and properties of people in its administrative area from natural disasters Establish its own disaster management system - Establish and manage disaster reduction organizations such as municipal disaster management council comprised of relevant stakeholders in the municipalities, as well as fire-brigade and other community-based disaster reduction groups - Formulate and review plans and strategies such as municipal disaster management plan, and securing necessary budget - Conduct disaster reduction drills and exercises with wider participation of residents, and enhance public awareness including through providing hazard maps - Secure stockpiles of emergency relief goods and other resources 12 Main responsibilities of municipalities in the field of disaster reduction (cont.) First responder at the occurrence of natural disasters - Collect disaster situation information and transmit it to prefectural government - Communicate early warning information issued by Japan Meteorological Agency or other organizations to residents - Mobilize fire-brigade and other resources - Issue evacuation order/advisory - Conduct emergency relief operations - Establish emergency response headquarters - Request necessary support from other municipalities an prefectural government Ownership of recovery and rehabilitation in a smooth and strategic manner - Secure early recovery of public facilities and debris removal - Seek strategic reconstruction and rehabilitation with comprehensive planning in cooperation with relevant stakeholders - Provide necessary support to rebuild livelihood of affected people 13 Contents • Introduction – Volcano Monitoring by JMA – Outline of disaster measures • Volcanic Disaster Mitigation System in Japan – Promotion of Volcanic Disaster Mitigation System – Guidelines for evacuation in case of volcanic eruption • Volcanic Disaster Management Council • Volcanic Alert Levels • Specific and practical Evacuation Plan • Asamayama eruption in 2009 and Shinmoedake Eruption in 2011 as case studies • Conclusion – Large eruptions will occur in 21st century in Japan 14 Chronology of promotion of Volcanic Disaster Mitigation System in Japan Usuzan Eruption 2000 Deep low-frequency earthquakes beneath Fujisan Making Fujisan Hazard map 2001 -06 Consideration Countermeasure against Fujisan eruption Basic principle for wide-area disaster prevention system in Fujisan 2006 Consideration applying the system of Fujisan to other volcanoes -08 Volcanic Warnings and Volcanic Alert Levels started Guideline for evacuation in case of volcanic eruption Shinmoedake Eruption 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake (M9.0) and Tsunamis The Guideline was reflected in the Basic Disaster Management Plan 15 Fujisan Hazard map Zone with possibility that crater appears Zone that people should evacuate immediately Pyroclastic flow Volcanic cinders Zone with possibility that lava flow reaches within 3 hours Zone with possibility that lava flow reaches within 24 hours Zone with volcanic mud flow by melting snow (Volcanic Disaster Management Council of Fujisan, 2004) 16 Evacuation zone before eruption in non-snow season Zone2 Zone with possibility that pyroclastic flow, volcanic cinders, lava flow reaches within 3 hours Zone1 Zone with possibility that crater appears Zone 1 Zone 2 Top Zone 3 Zone 3 Zone with possibility that lava flow reaches within 24 hours 10km 10km 17 Establishment of wide-area disaster prevention system in Fujisan At the time of normal condition Discovery system of abnormal phenomena System of information sharing Cooperation system with volcano specialist Promotion of cooperation across wide-area and setting of agreement At the time of volcanic information announcement from JMA. (Before eruption) Volcanic Advisory (drawing attention): Strengthening of observation and reporting system. Volcanic Advisory (possibility with eruption): Holding of Coordinating Committee for Prediction of Volcanic Eruption Volcanic Alert: Establishment of combination on-site precaution headquarters At the time of eruption Establishment of major disaster management headquarters etc. Establishment of combination on-site management headquarters. Group organization with each function Decision making on-site Integrating and sharing of information Prediction of influence range 18 Emergency and restoration measures in Fujisan Measures of traffic( Road traffic restriction, Railway operation restriction and Securing of safe operation of aircraft ) Measures of ash fall ( Grasping of condition, Removing ash ) Rescue activities Medical measures for wide-area Securing of house ( Emergency temporary housing, Permanent housing ) Economic support ( Payment of support money, money loaning at a low rate of interest ) Prevention of damage expansion by lava flow and debris flow and so on 19 Guidelines for evacuation in case of volcanic eruption Consideration applying the system of Fujisan to other volcanoes (2006 - 2008) ( Secretariat: Cabinet Office, Fire and Disaster Management Agency, Erosion and Sediment Control Department of MLIT and JMA) Problem 1: Construction of cooperative consideration Volcanic Disaster Management Council Problem 2 : Improvement on Volcanic information of JMA Volcanic Alert Levels Problem 3: Clarify the commencing time of refuge, the refuge region, means of escape, etc. Specific and practical evacuation plan 20 Guidelines for evacuation in case of volcanic eruption Development of evacuation scheme Council (Preparedness) ・Establish council for consisting of municipalities, prefectures, regional brunches of central government etc. ・Establish wide-area disaster management in preparation for evacuation beyond municipal borders. ・Core group leads conference activities. ・Make a Hazard map of volcanic disaster, concrete and practical evacuation plan, training etc. Headquarter (in emergency) ・Establish headquarters composed of government staff and prefecture/city staff. ・Implement evacuation procedure, establishing shelters, receiving evacuees, ensuring transportation and regulating traffic. Specific and practical evacuation plan ・Based on hazard map, they consider relationship between the volcanic alert levels and evacuation area, time, route, place, the area of control for climbing. Then they make a concrete plan which has evacuation rules. Assumption of Scenario and countermeasures for eruption When? 駒ケ岳火山 噴火シナリオと防災対応の想定(バスによる集団避難) 経過時間 2日間 1時間 2時間 3時間 4時間 5時間 (1/17 0:30) 噴火シナリオ1 異常現象を観測 小 噴 火 火山性微動 を観測 ※昭和4年の噴火史実に基づ き、経過時間を設定している (時間軸の日時は史実に基づく) 6時間 7時間 8時間 9時間 噴火 噴火拡大 1 2 拡大 ◆10分以上継続 ◆微動・空振がさらに増大 ◆断続的に噴火 ◆地殻変動を観測 ◆微動・空振が増大傾向 ◆大噴火の可能性ありと判断 (中噴火) ◆水蒸気爆発 ◆山麓で微量の降灰 噴火警戒 レベル 11時間 12時間 (09:53) (11:00) 9時間 小噴火継続 10時間 13時間 14時間 15時間 (12:30) 16時間 17時間 18時間 19時間 20時間 21時間 22時間 23時間 24時間 14時間 ・ 噴 火 急 に 衰 え る 大噴火発生 ◆プリニー式の噴火開始 ◆噴煙は火口直上で数千m以上 ◆山麓市街地で軽石が降下し始める ◆火砕流・火砕サージが発生(全方位に拡がる) ◆積雪期には融雪型泥流の発生 Which area? ◆規模の大きな水蒸気爆発~マグマ水蒸気爆発 ◆火砕サージの発生 ◆山麓で降灰(数㎝) ◆微動・空振が急激に増大 3 4 5 2 <第一次避難区域・第二次避難区域(同時避難)> 一般住民 避難 避難準備広報 避難広報 一時 集合 *災害時要援護者対応も含めて、災害対策本部体制の確立が 必要な時期 避難準備 バス出 動と集 結 *避難広報は巡回と周知にかかる時間として約2時間とした 避難 *仮に第二次避難区域について、噴火拡大(中噴火)を見極めてからの避難開始と想定した場合、 火砕流・火砕サージが発生(全方位に拡がる)するまでの避難が間に合わないことになり、第一次 避難区域との同時期避難が必要となる *避難広報を受けてから、一時集合を開始するまでの避難準備時間を約30分と想定した 避難 広報 一時 集合 *バスについては、事前に出動準備が完了しているものとしてレベル5になった段階で出動・集結にかか る 時間を約1時間と想定した 避難準備 *バスの繰り返し輸送(ピストン輸送)による集団避難で最も時間のかかる地区の時間を設定(約2時間20分) 災害時 要援護者 避難 避難準 備広報 避難 広報 避難準備 バス 避難 Which route? *災害時要援護者の歩行速度を考慮し、一時集合への時間を想定(一般住民より時間がかかる) 一時集合 *バスについては、事前の準備ができていないと想定して、レベルが4になった 時点で要請を受け出動を開始し集結するものとして約1時間30分と想定 規制等 バス要請 と出動・ 集結 警戒区域の設定検討 (火口から2km) 警戒区域の設定検討(火口から4km) 災害情報連絡室 災害対策本部 避難 *バスの繰り返し輸送(ピストン輸送)による集団避難で最も時間のかかる地区の時間設定(約1時間) 第二次避難区域内警戒区域の設定(この時期に第二次避難区域の避難を開始するとした場合) 2 本部体制 Which refuge? 21 Volcanic Disaster Management Council Members of the Council Prefectural and municipal Governments Meteorological Observatories of JMA Regional development bureaus (SABO) Volcanologists and experts (Core Group) Forest offices, Survey departments, Environment offices, Coastguard, Self-Defense Force, Polices, Fire services, JR, Red Cross, NTT, etc. Volcano Disaster Mitigation Council for Fuji volcano (June 2012) Core Group of the Council for Sakurajima Kagoshima Prefecture Kagoshima City Sakurajima Volcano Research Center of Kyoto University Core group of Volcano Disaster Osumi Office of River and National Highway (MLIT) Mitigation Council Kagoshima Local Meteorological Observatory (JMA) for Sakurajima (July 2014) 22 Volcanic Disaster Management Council and Core Group based on a Basic Plan for Disaster Prevention Volcanic Disaster Management Council Core Group Prefectural government Advice is mainly about a setup of the refuge region, expansion, reduction and release. Advice Police Fire Department Self-Defense Forces Japan Coast Guard Advice Municipality Meteorological Observatory Regional development bureau Forestry management Environmental office District survey part Advice Erosion and Sediment Control Bureau (Sabo) Advice Road department office Volcanologist Other public offices (CCPVE Members) Red Cross Society The member who participates in decision of refuge time and the refuge region deeply and so on Organization which works on volcano disaster measures such as refuge together. 23 Core Group members need to establish face-to-face relationships each other Prefectural government Municipality Meteorological Observatory Volcanologist Erosion and Sediment Control Bureau 24 Three phenomena “Large volcanic blocks, Pyroclastic flow and Snowmelt Lahar" are attached importance in Evacuation plan 1991.6.3 出典:NPO法人砂防広報センター副読本 上富良野町提供 Large volcanic blocks Pyroclastic flow Snowmelt Lahar (2000 Usuzan) (1991 Unzendake) (1926 Tokachidake) 1986.11.19 東京都提供 1984.8.25 国土交通省大隅河川国道事務所提供 Lava flow Debris flow Volcanic gas (1986 Izu-Oshima) (Sakurajima) (2000 Miyakejima) 25 Eruption Scenario of Hokkaido-Komagatake Volcanic Alert Levels General definition of Volcanic Alert Level. (depending on areas and responses) * * * Designated area is described in literature as regional disaster prevention plan. (Operated from December 1, 2007) 27 Volcanoes where Volcanic Alert Levels are applied • Volcanic Alert Levels are applied to 30 volcanoes (as of Oct. 2013). • Volcanic Alert Levels will be applied to other volcanoes when coordination with local municipalities and other related organizations is completed. Meakandake Tokachidake Usuzan Hokkaido-Komagatake Akita-Komagatake Bandaisan Kusatsu-Shiranesan Niigata-Yakeyama Yakedake Ontakesan Kujusan Kuchinoerabujima Suwanosejima Akita-Yakeyama Iwatesan Azumayama Adatarayama Nasudake Asamayama Izu-Tobu Volcanoes Unzendake Kirishimayama (Ohachi, Shinmoedake) Tarumaesan Fujisan Asosan Izu-Oshima Miyakejima Hakoneyama Sakurajima Satsuma-Iojima Level.3 Level.2 Level.1 (Oct. 25, 2013) 28 Contents • Introduction – Volcano Monitoring by JMA – Outline of disaster measures • Volcanic Disaster Mitigation System in Japan – Promotion of Volcanic Disaster Mitigation System – Guidelines for evacuation in case of volcanic eruption • Volcanic Disaster Management Council • Volcanic Alert Levels • Specific and practical Evacuation Plan • Asamayama eruption in 2009 and Shinmoedake Eruption in 2011 as case studies • Conclusion – Large eruptions will occur in 21st century in Japan 29 Volcanic activity at Asamayama Eruption JMA GSJ SO2 flux N/day Volcanic quakes GPS baseline Level 2 3 2 ↑ 3.11 1 2 3 2 ↑ Replace sensor 1 Volcanic Activity Level←|→Volcanic Alert Level 30 Tilt change before an eruption at Asamayama Tiltmeters of JMA (red circles) Tilt change and seismicity just before an eruption at Asama Level Restricted area 1 < 0.5km 2 < 2km 3 < 4km < 4km + more (in tilt change) 31 Prohibition corresponding levels Eruption at Asama volcano, 2004 Level 2 Level 3 Level 3 (during tilt change) Prohibition rules corresponding alert levels determined by Volcano Disaster Mitigation Council of Asama. 32 Role of Volcanic Disaster Management Councils based on the Basic Plan for Disaster Prevention Criteria for evacuations etc. 33 Cooperative consideration of an evacuation plan Cooperative consideration of volcanic disaster management council 1. Figure out an inhabitable area 2. Figure out the extent of the hazard 6. Fix the contact person, method of connection and the procedure of a request 3. Making eruption scenario 7. Reflection to a local plan for disaster prevention and operation of volcanic alert levels 4. Cooperative consideration of disaster prevention 8. Public relations to residents Enforcement 5. Setup of volcanic alert levels Reexamination and training are conducted continuously. 34 Moderate-Large Eruption occurred at Shinmoedake for the first time in 300 years in 2011 Shinmoedake Tokyo Subplinian Eruption (Jan. 26, 2011) Before the eruption Newly appeared Lave in the crater(Feb. 1, 2011) 35 Problems at the Shinmoedake eruption Volcanic Alert Level We couldn’t update the level before the subplinian eruption. Very much ash fell but the alert level doesn’t link to ash fall. Evacuation Plans Local governments had no specific and practical evacuation plans. Support for establishment of a disaster management system by the government assistance team Development of quantitative ash fall forecast (JMA) Advancement of real-time monitoring techniques of eruption (CCPVE) Ash fall simulation by MRI,JMA 36 Activity at Shinmoedake before 2011 eruptions 2005-2007 (left) Small inflation beneath the summit crater 気象庁 2008-2010 (right) Small phreatic eruptions December 2009 Inflation of a deep magma chamber Volcanic Alert Level 2007/12/1 Level 1 (normal) 2008/8/22 Level 2 (Don’t approach the crater) Off-limits within1km from the crater 2008/10/29 Level 1 (normal) 2010/3/30 Level 2 (Don’t approach the crater) 2010/4/16 Level 1 (normal) 2010/5/6 Level 2 (Don’t approach the crater) 37 Eruption at Shinmoedake, 2011 2013/10 Level2(1km) 38 Mismatching between the Volcanic Warnings and the Evacuation Advisory Volcanic Warnings Ebino Kobayashi Evacuation Advisory ‘Refuge Region’ Jan. 30: 1,158 persons ‘Dangerous Zone’ 湧水町 Feb. 5: 73 persons Jan. 26: 2km 2/15: canceled Jan 31: 3km Feb. 1 : 4km 花堂 北狭野 Mar. 22: 3km 南狭野 Tkaharu Kirishima Miyakonojo 39 Consistency of Volcanic Warnings and the Evacuation Area in an evacuation plan 1.For Large Volcanic Blocks JMA Warnings 2.For Pyroclastic flow JMA Warnings Dangerous Zone of a Pyroclastic flow Level避難・ 5 避難準備 Evacuate Level 5 Evacuate Kirishima City Kirishima City Evacuation Plan Evacuation Area Takaharu Town Dangerous Zone of Large Volcanic Blocks Takaharu Town Evacuation Plan Evacuation Area 40 40 Volcanic Disaster Management Council and Core Group based on a Basic Plan for Disaster Prevention Volcanic Disaster Management Council for Shinmoedake Core Group Prefectural government Advice Government Assistance Team Advice Police Fire Department Self-Defense Forces Japan Coast Guard Advice Municipality Meteorological Observatory Regional development bureau Forestry management Environmental office District survey part Advice Erosion and Sediment Control Bureau (Sabo) Advice Road department office Volcanologist Other public offices (CCPVE Members) Red Cross Society The member who participates in decision of refuge time and the refuge region deeply and so on Organization which works on volcano disaster measures such as refuge together. 41 Face-to-Face Relationship and Image sharing Basic Plan for Disaster Prevention 1. Volcanic Disaster Management Council 2. Volcanic Alert Levels 3. Specific and practical Evacuation Plan may be more important Between the persons concerned engaged in volcano disaster prevention Establish a face-to-face relationship Image sharing about disaster and countermeasures 42 Contents • Introduction – Volcano Monitoring by JMA – Outline of disaster measures • Volcanic Disaster Mitigation System in Japan – Promotion of Volcanic Disaster Mitigation System – Guidelines for evacuation in case of volcanic eruption • Volcanic Disaster Management Council • Volcanic Alert Levels • Specific and practical Evacuation Plan • Asamayama eruption in 2009 and Shinmoedake Eruption in 2011 as case studies • Conclusion – Large eruptions will occur in 21st century in Japan 43 Largest Earthquakes in the World Since 1900 Hypocentral distribution in the world 1957 Andreanof Islands, Alaska (M9.1) 1952 Kamchatka (M9.0) 2011 Near the East Coast of Honshu, Japan (M9.0) 1964 Prince William Sound, Alaska (M9.2) 2004 Off the West Coast of Northern Sumatra (M9.2) 2010 Chile (M8.8) 1960 Chile (M9.5) Magnitudes are based on the Science Chronology (Maruzen publication) 44 M9 earthquakes induced volcanic eruptions • 1952 Kamchatka (M9.0) – Karpinsky Group (the next day), other 2 volcanoes (within 3 months) – Bezymianny (3 years after, for the first time in 1000 years) • 1957 Andreanof Islands, Alaska (M9.1) – Vsevidof (4 days after) • 1960 Chile (M9.5) – Puyehue-Cordón Caulle(2 days after), other 3 volcanoes (within 1 year) • 1964 Prince William Sound, Alaska (M9.2) – Trident (2 months after), Redoubt (2 years after) • 2004 Off the West Coast of Northern Sumatra (M9.2) – Talang (4 months after), Merapi (1 year and 3 months after), Kelut (3 years after) • 2010 Chile (M8.8) – Puyehue-Cordón Caulle (1 year and 3 months after) 45 Large Eruptions after 17th Century in Japan Quantity of an ejecta more than 1 km3 17th C. 18th C. 19th C. 20th C. 21st C. 0.3-1 km3 0.1-0.3 km3 HokkaidoKomagatake (1640) Usuzan(1663) Tarumaesan(1667) HokkaidoKomagatake(1694) Tarumaesan(1739) Sakurajima(1779-82) Fujisan(1707) Izu-Oshima(1777-79) Asamayama(1783) Unzendake(1782) Usuzan(1769) Bandaisan (1888) Usuzan(1822) Usuzan(1853) HokkaidoKomagatake(1856) Suwanosejima(1813) HokkaidoKomagatake(1929) Satsuma-Iojima (1934-35) Usuzan(1943-45) Sakurajima(1946) Usuzan(1977-78) Unzendake(1990-95) Sakurajima(1914) ? ? ? 46 Proposals for mitigation of large-scale volcanic disasters Compared with local countermeasures for volcanic disasters, Japan has not yet well prepared for large-scale volcanic disasters (LSVD) that may affect wide area of the country. The government held ‘Study meetings for volcanic disaster mitigation for wide area’ (Co-secretariat : the Cabinet Office, the Fire and Disaster Management Agency, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism and the Japan Meteorological Agency) and publicized ‘Proposals for mitigation of large-scale volcanic disasters’ (16 May, 2013). Main topics of the proposals 1. Need for countermeasures against large-scale lava flows, pyroclastic flows and mudflows 2. Need for countermeasures against large-scale tephra fall 3. Role of the nation and municipalities when LSVD 4. Need for experts advice and enhancement of monitoring when LSVD 5. Enhancement of observation, research and human resources for LSVD 47 Thank you for your attention ! ‘Ukiyoe’ picture by KATSUSHIKA Hokusai Japan Meteorological Agency
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