ACTA SOCIOLOGICA 2000 How Inter-firm Co-operation Depends on Social Embeddedness: A Vignette Study Gerrit Rooks, Werner Raub, Robert Selten and Frits Tazelaar Department of Sociology/ICS, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands ABSTRACT This paper examines the effects of the social context of economic exchange on the governance of transactions in buyer–supplier relations between rms. We distinguish three dimensions of social embeddedness of transactions, namely, repeated exchange between the partners (temporal embeddedness), relations with third parties such as other rms (network embeddedness) and social institutions that allow for credible agreements and commitments (institutional embeddedness). Together with transaction characteristics, social embeddedness shapes trust problems in economic exchange and how rms mitigate such trust problems through contractual planning. More precisely, we analyse how transaction characteristics and social embeddedness affect effort invested in contractual planning. We argue that social embeddedness provides alternatives for costly contractual planning, such as reciprocity and conditional co-operation. Forty purchase managers participated in a factorial survey. Virtual transactions were presented. Each transaction was represented by a vignette composed of eight characteristics, the levels of which were varied randomly. Three characteristics represented ‘economic’ features of transactions, namely, transaction-speci c investments, monitoring problems and volume of the transaction. Five vignette characteristics represented social embeddedness: the history of previous transactions between the partners, expected future transactions, voice and exit networks and a rough indicator of institutional embeddedness. The purchase managers had to judge how much time negotiations would take, and also how many departments would be involved. Results show that social embeddedness leads a purchase manager to put less effort into the management of the transaction. While one-sided speci c investments, monitoring problems and the volume of a transaction induce more negotiation efforts, such efforts decrease if transactions are embedded ‘better’ in a temporal or network sense, or if buyer and supplier can rely on more institutional embeddedness. Werner Raub, Department of Sociology/ICS, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 1, 3584 CS Utrecht, The Netherlands Ó Scandinavian Sociological Association 2000 1. Introduction The governance of contractual relations between rms is a classic topic of organization studies. In his seminal study, Macaulay (1963:58) observed that rms often avoid contractual planning: ‘businessmen often prefer to rely on ‘a man’s word’ in a brief letter, a handshake, or ‘common honesty and decency’ – even when the transaction involves exposure to serious risks.’ It may be assumed that rms are concerned mainly with their own interests. Hence, why do they trust one another by relying on ‘a man’s word’, a handshake and ‘common honesty and decency’ when transactions involve risks? Why do rms use contractual planning to such a low degree? Macaulay 124 ACTA SOCIOLOGICA 2000 (1963) suggests alternatives for contracts. Selecting rms with an established reputation can diminish risk. Firms can also use extra-legal sanctions. In many cases, buyers and sellers have often known each other for a long time. They help each other by exchanging information about other rms and markets; they send each other presents and dine together in the hope of making good deals. Firms usually want to continue existing relationships, and for this reason non-co-operative behaviour is avoided. While Macaulay’s study received much attention (e.g., Ellickson 1991; Grif ths 1996), relatively little quantitative empirical research has emerged that systematically addresses his intuitive explanations. Neo-classical economic models assume that transactions involve negligible costs. This assumption is relaxed in transaction cost theory (Williamson 1985). Firms risk being exploited by other rms. This induces them to incur costs in the processes of searching for trustworthy business partners, negotiating, drawing contracts and enforcing contracts (Eggertsson 1990). These transaction costs explain why markets are not always the most ef cient governance structures. Some transactions are more ef ciently organized in a hierarchy; for example, ‘making’ is sometimes cheaper than ‘buying’. Hybrid forms, like franchises and subcontracting, can be identi ed between markets (buying) and hierarchy (making). Transaction cost theory largely omits the social context from the explanation of the organization of transactions (Granovetter 1985; Raub & Weesie 1991, forthcoming; Gulati 1995; Blumberg 1998). Williamson acknowledges the signi cance of the social context of transactions (1994:166): ‘Although the main predictive of transaction cost economics turns on the attributes of transactions, this is not to say that context is unimportant’. Raub and Weesie (1991, forthcoming) propose to include core features of the social context into a rational choice model for the ‘management’ of transactions. The social context can be represented by two types of embeddedness of transactions, namely structural and institutional embeddedness. Structural embeddedness refers to the embeddedness of transactions in social relations. First, a transaction is often embedded in a sequence of transactions between the same rms: transactions are temporally embedded. Second, transactions are often embedded in networks of relations between rms. A rm often knows and has access to other partners of VOLUME 43 a given business partner and sometimes does business with these third parties. For example, a buyer may be in touch with other buyers from his supplier. Transactions are likewise embedded in social institutions. Social institutions can be seen as informal (for example, norms) and formal (for example, laws) rules that allow for credible agreements and commitments (North 1990). Embeddedness of transactions provides rms with extra opportunities for managing these transactions. For example, structural embeddedness of transactions enables conditional co-operation. This is the possibility of sanctioning co-operative behaviour in today’s transaction positively and sanctioning unco-operative behaviour negatively in future transactions. By applying management mechanisms made possible by the social embeddedness of transactions, rms are able to organize transactions more ef ciently (Weesie et al. 1998). However, systematic empirical research into the effects of social embeddedness on the management of transactions is scarce. In this study, we focus on the effects of social embeddedness on the management of transactions. We do not focus on the content of management, but on management effort. In this study, management effort refers to the total time spent on negotiating and concluding a contract. The focus on management effort implies that we are seeking to explain the amount of transaction cost associated with a transaction instead of the choice of governance structures for transactions, the core explanandum of transaction cost theory. From the perspective of the robustness of our predictions, an advantage of choosing management effort as our dependent variable is that we do not need to employ assumptions on differences in (relative) costs of different governance structures for deriving hypotheses (see Batenburg et al. 1999). We focus on transactions between buyers and suppliers. These transactions can be considered trust problems (see Dasgupta 1988; Kreps 1990; Coleman 1990: Chapter 5). In reality, these trust problems are mostly doublesided: both buyer and seller have incentives for breaking agreements. The buyer can postpone payment; the seller can delay delivery or sell a ‘lemon’. Here, we look at transactions from the perspective of the buyer. For the sake of simplicity, we assume that the problem of trust is one-sided: the buyer has to trust the seller. Buyers can solve the problem by making contracts as complete as possible, but this is Inter-firm Co-operation and Social Embeddedness 125 costly and often inef cient. More ef cient solutions to the trust problem are feasible via the social embeddedness of transactions. The central question of this study can be formulated in the following way: What are the effects of temporal embeddedness, network embeddedness and institutional embeddedness, next to ‘economic’ characteristics of a transaction, on management effort? Theory and hypotheses on management effort are provided in section 2. To test hypotheses, we conducted a vignette experiment. Forty buyers judged virtual transactions (vignettes). The exact procedure followed in this experiment is explained in section 3. Each buyer judged multiple vignettes; therefore our data are characterized by a nested structure. This induced us to use the Hierarchical Linear Model to analyse the data. This model and the results are discussed in section 4. A discussion of the results concludes the paper. 2. Theory and hypotheses The performance of a supplier is not always satisfactory. Possible ex post problems include delayed deliveries and inferior quality of products. Such problems are the result of opportunism, force majeure or misunderstandings. Williamson (1985:47) de ned opportunism as ‘self-interest seeking with guile’. He subsumes blatant forms of lying and cheating under opportunism, but underlines the importance of ‘soft’ forms (1985:47): ‘Opportunism more often involves subtle forms of deceit’. A second source of problems may be force majeure. A seller is willing to ful l the contract, but is not able to do so due to unforeseen contingencies. These can include uctuations in prices of raw materials or delayed delivery due to a temporal shortage in personnel because of a u epidemic. Misunderstandings are an additional source of problems: both buyer and seller intended to cooperate, but did not plan the transaction properly or suffered from coordination problems. The management of a transaction aims at diminishing the likelihood of such problems and reducing damage should problems arise. Here we focus on the buyer’s effort involved in the contractual planning of a transaction. By contractual planning of a transaction, we mean negotiations and results of negotiations surrounding the following four issues (Macaulay 1963): (1) de ning performance, (2) de ning duties when unforeseen circumstances arise, (3) de ning sanctions and (4) planning the enforceability of the agreement. Management effort is a choice variable. More effort will be invested when the likelihood that problems will occur, or that damage will ensue from possible problems, is high. In addition, the degree of effort put into management will be determined by the cost of planning. The optimal amount of management effort depends on costs and bene ts (Blumberg 1998; Batenburg et al. 1999). Thus, in a sense, we conceive of contractual planning and trust as alternative arrangements for transactions. Contractual planning provides safeguards against problems such as opportunism, but is costly. Therefore, trust will be an attractive substitute for costly contractual planning if the likelihood of problems or of damage from problems is small, or if social embeddedness provides non-contractual safeguards. More effort invested in contractual planning thus indicates a ‘lack of trust’ (see also Buskens 1999: Chapter 5). Hence, by analysing effort, we likewise highlight the behavioural implications of trust. Based on transaction cost theory, three transaction characteristics can be identi ed that in uence the likelihood of problems and the amount of possible damage. Hence, these transaction characteristics can be expected to affect management effort. Transaction-specific investments The value of transaction-speci c investments decreases when they have to be redeployed for other transactions. An example of such investments is a mould that is used for the production of components for a certain type of car. A mould cannot be used for the production of components for other types of cars, and is therefore highly speci c. If for any reason the buyer of the components chooses to build a new type of car, then the seller is left with moulds that have only scrap value. Because of transaction-speci c investments, switching to an alternative partner becomes costly. This explains why rms, when making such investments, become vulnerable to opportunism. An example of empirical research into the effects of transaction-speci c investments on the management of transactions is Monteverde and Teece (1982). They found that rms in the automobile industry in the United States were more inclined to make components themselves than to procure them from a supplier if they had to make larger speci c investments. 126 ACTA SOCIOLOGICA 2000 Hypothesis 1: The larger the transaction-speci c investments, the more effort will be invested into the management of the transaction.1 Uncertainty Uncertainty refers to unforeseen circumstances that might arise in the course of a transaction, as well as the fact that one of the partners may have private information which the other lacks and which can be used strategically. Monitoring problems are a special kind of private information. For example, these problems arise when it is dif cult and costly for a potential buyer to determine the quality of a good or service. Good examples of monitoring problems are the questions that arise when buying a second hand car. How good is the car? How well did the previous owner look after it? Monitoring problems provide sellers with the possibility and incentive to behave opportunistically (sell a ‘lemon’). Buyers will know this and, hence, have an incentive to put more effort into management. Hypothesis 2: The greater the uncertainty that surrounds a transaction, the more effort will be invested into the management of the transaction. Volume Macaulay (1963) observed that important, unusual transactions are regulated by very detailed contracts. As an – extreme – example he mentioned the sale of the Empire State Building in the early 1960s: more than 100 lawyers produced a contract consisting of 400 pages. Williamson (1985:60) likewise addresses the volume of a transaction: ‘The cost of specialized governance structures will be easier to recover for larger transactions of a recurring kind’. If problems occur, the damage will be larger as the volume of a transaction increases. Therefore, the expected bene ts of management to prevent the problems increase. In addition, the need to coordinate activities will be higher. Therefore, when the volume of a transaction is greater, buyers have an incentive to put more effort into management. Hypothesis 3: The greater the volume of a transaction, the more effort will be invested into the management of the transaction. Embeddedness In addition to ‘economic’ characteristics, transactions have ‘social’ characteristics. Transactions take place in a social context. The social context of a transaction can be represented by VOLUME 43 two types of embeddedness, namely, structural embeddedness of transactions in social relations (Granovetter 1985) and the embeddedness of transactions in institutions (Raub & Weesie 1991, forthcoming; Weesie & Raub 1996). Structural embeddedness of a transaction refers to connections between transactions. First, transactions can be connected by repetition between two rms, so-called ‘temporal embeddedness’. Second, transactions can be connected via relations with third parties, so-called ‘network embeddedness’. In this section, we focus rst on the effects of temporal embeddedness on management and second on the effects of network embeddedness on management. We close the section with the effects of institutional embeddedness on management. Temporal embeddedness 2 The shadow of the past. The shadow of the past refers to the duration, frequency, volume and success of previous transactions between buyer and supplier. Systematic (empirical) knowledge about the effects of the past on the management of transactions is scarce. Gulati (1995) nds an association between the number of times two rms have formed an alliance previously and the type of contract used for a new alliance between them. The more previous alliances they have had, the less likely it is that new contracts will be equitybased, indicating a decreased need to deter opportunism. We discuss two possible effects of a shared past on the management of a transaction. First, a buyer can collect information about the behaviour of a supplier. Lorenz (1988) considers this rst-hand experience to be the best indication of trustworthiness. Granovetter (1985) suggests something similar: rst-hand information is cheap, reliable, detailed and accurate. The behaviour of a supplier becomes more predictable. This means that, given that the past was successful, a common past reduces potential problems that may arise because of opportunism and misunderstandings. Second, a common past often implies that mutual speci c investments have been made. Repeated interactions enable rms to develop a close co-operative relationship. Palay (1984) calls this ‘transactional capital’. Before, we suggested one-sided investments to be a possible reason for opportunism problems. We do not expect this to happen when mutual speci c investments have been made. After all, opportunistic behaviour would lead to a loss in own ‘transaction capital’. Inter-firm Co-operation and Social Embeddedness 127 Hypothesis 4: The longer and more successful the past association, the less effort will be invested into the management of the transaction. The shadow of the future. Firms often intend to continue to do business with each other (see Weber 1976:192–193). This expectation of future business casts its shadow on the present management. Expectations of future business accordingly are often called the ‘shadow of the future’ (Axelrod 1984). Empirical research into the effects of the ‘shadow of the future’ on the management of transactions is scarce. Heide and Miner (1992) report an effect of ‘the shadow of the future’ (expectations of the frequency and length of future business) on four co-operation indicators, namely exibility, shared problem solving, information exchange and reluctance to use power. Parkhe (1993) found a positive association between the performance of an alliance and the length of the ‘shadow of the future’. Expectations of future business create the possibility of conditional co-operation (Axelrod 1984), for example, by accepting an occasional delivery of somewhat lesser quality from an appreciated supplier. Co-operation can be positively sanctioned in the future. Opportunistic behaviour, conversely, can be sanctioned negatively in the future, for example, by not accepting deliveries of a somewhat lesser quality, but returning them immediately. In an extreme situation, a buyer can exit the relationship. Conditional co-operation requires, however, that the future is suf ciently important. If the long-term costs of opportunism outweigh the short-term bene ts, then a rational supplier will not act opportunistically. The co-operationpromoting role of reciprocity was studied empirically by Kogut (1989). He found that the more bonds exist between two rms – multiple bonds create the possibility of reciprocity – the more stable joint ventures are. In addition to reciprocity effects, expectations of future business can also have an opposite effect. The management of today’s transaction is likewise an investment for future transactions. Tangible examples of such investments are contracts that are used for the current transaction, but can be re-deployed for later transactions. Less tangible are investments for building up a good working relationship and enlarging ‘transactional capital’. Besides the incentive to safeguard against possible opportunism in today’s transaction, an incentive exists to put more effort into the management of the transaction with an eye on future transactions. What is invested in the management of the current transaction can be earned back with pro t later if future transactions are to be expected (see Williamson 1985:60–61 for a related argument on how ‘frequency’ of transactions makes ‘specialized governance structures’ more attractive). A priori we cannot say what the main effect of the shadow of the future on the management of a transaction will be. First, we expect the shadow of the future to create the possibility of reciprocity. Because of this possibility, less management is needed to safeguard transactions. This implies that the effect of the shadow of the future will be negative. Second, we expect an investment effect. This implies that more effort will be put into management, because investments can be earned back pro tably in the future. So, the investment effect will be positive. This leaves us with two opposing effects of the shadow of the future. Without further assumptions, we cannot identify the stronger of the two effects. However, we do expect that the effect of the shadow of the future depends on the degree to which a shared past exists between buyer and supplier. To describe this conditional hypothesis, we distinguish between two situations. We rst consider the situation where a buyer and supplier expect to do business in the future, but have no common past. In the second situation, the buyer and supplier have a common past and they expect to keep on doing business with one another. We focus on a past that has been successful, assuming that rms tend to exit from a relation with a partner who turns out to be incompetent or unreliable (see below). The shadow of the future without a common past. On the one hand, the shadow of the future implies that the incentive to put effort into management of a transaction is reduced. Firms can use conditional co-operation for safeguarding the transactions. On the other hand, the shadow of the future creates an incentive to invest in the current transaction and, hence, to put more effort into management. We cannot predict the net effect. The shadow of the future combined with a common past. If a common past exists, the feasibility of conditional co-operation still has an effect on the management of a transaction. On the other 128 ACTA SOCIOLOGICA 2000 hand, investments have already been made in earlier transactions, a good working relationship has been developed and contracts have been written. The incentive to invest in this situation is less than in a situation where no past exists. Hence, the investment effect will decrease. This yields a hypothesis on an interaction effect between a shared past and the shadow of the future. Hypothesis 5: If a shared past exists, the effort invested into the management of the transaction will be smaller if the shadow of the future is larger. Network embeddedness In this section we consider two types of network embeddedness by distinguishing the ‘voice’ and ‘exit’ networks (Hirschman 1970; Blumberg 1998). Voice network. The buyer’s voice network includes other partners, for example, other buyers or suppliers of the supplier, his bank or his lawyer, with whom the buyer can exchange information about the supplier. Social networks connect transactions; they enable rms to collect and spread information about business partners (Raub & Weesie 1990; Buskens 1999). This implies that conditional co-operation is facilitated (Kreps 1990). Co-operation can be sanctioned positively, for example, by recommending the supplier to other buyers. Also, opportunism can be sanctioned negatively, for example, by warning other buyers not to buy from the supplier. This implies that opportunism becomes more costly: the (valuable) reputation of a supplier can be damaged if he behaves opportunistically. Obviously, voice can be used not only in contacts with other buyers of the supplier, but also in contacts with his further business partners, such as his own suppliers, his bank or his lawyer. Thus, the buyer’s voice network offers sanction opportunities analogous to the shadow of the future: reciprocity causes a reputation to become valuable, and so opportunism becomes less attractive. Reputation effects are possible both in dyads and in networks (Raub & Weesie 1990 distinguish between reputation in narrow and broad senses). Hypothesis 6: The more a transaction is embedded in a voice network, the less effort will be invested into the management of the transaction. VOLUME 43 Exit network. The buyer’s exit network refers to options for buying a product or service of the same kind from an alternative supplier. A smaller exit network increases the cost to the buyer of switching suppliers. Hence, the buyer becomes more dependent on a supplier. Fewer and less attractive exit options of the buyer provide a supplier with more incentives to behave opportunistically, for example, by somewhat reducing the quality of delivered goods. Consequently, the buyer will put more effort into the management of a transaction if he has fewer and less attractive exit options. Hypothesis 7: The more a transaction is embedded in an exit network, the less effort will be invested into the management of the transaction. Earlier, we discussed the effects of transactionspeci c investments on management effort. Transaction-speci c investments have lock-in effects. A situation where multiple suppliers are available ex ante transforms into a bilateral monopoly ex post (Williamson 1985). This implies that when speci c investments are made, the effect of the exit network will be smaller. This leads us to the following conditional hypothesis: Hypothesis 8: The more speci c investments, the smaller the effect of the exit network on the management of the transaction. Institutional embeddedness The existence of institutions like the law creates the possibility of sanctioning opportunistic behaviour. Agreements and commitments can be made legally enforceable. Consequently, institutional embeddedness makes agreements and commitments credible: transactions take place under the shadow of the law. Countries with less ef cient legal systems make it harder for buyer and supplier to make agreements legally enforceable. If buyer and supplier come from different countries, the enforcement of agreements via the law is more dif cult, e.g., rms know the other system less well than their own. The buyer’s access to the institutions is more dif cult. The use of institutions has become more expensive. To get the same level of safeguarding against possible opportunism, the buyer must make a greater effort. In addition, more effort has to be made to safeguard the transaction, because the supplier knows it is dif cult for the buyer to make use of the institutions. So, the supplier has an extra Inter-firm Co-operation and Social Embeddedness 129 incentive to behave opportunistically. This leads to the following hypothesis: Hypothesis 9: The less well a transaction is embedded institutionally, the more effort will be invested into the management of the transaction. Expertise of the buyer In this last section of the theoretical part of this paper, we focus on a characteristic of the purchase manager instead of a characteristic of the transaction. The costs of management of a transaction depend on the expertise and experience – the human capital (see Becker 1993) – of the purchase manager who manages the transaction. The lower the costs of management – more human capital being available – the more bene t one unit of effort of management will have. Then again, the time spent on management will be more expensive. A purchase manager with more human capital will be able to regulate more in one time unit and, hence, compared to a purchase manager with a smaller amount of human capital, he or she will put less effort into the management of a transaction. Hypothesis 10: The more human capital a purchase manager possesses, the less effort he or she will invest into the management of the transaction. 3. Method To test the hypotheses (see Blumberg 1998; Batenburg et al. 1999; Buskens 1999 for related research using survey data), we conducted a vignette experiment, also known as the ‘factorial survey approach’ (Rossi & Anderson 1982). In a vignette experiment, vignettes are used to elicit judgements. A vignette is a short description of a person or a situation that contains information that is considered relevant and that is presented to respondents to obtain a judgment about that person or situation. Here, vignettes were used to describe virtual transactions. Purchase managers from the business community judged the vignettes. Each purchase manager had to judge several vignettes, all different. The purchase manager then had to judge how much effort he or she would in fact invest into the management of a transaction represented by each of these vignettes if confronted with such a transaction in his or her business. Obviously, a vignette design creates the potential problem that respondents have to make hypothetical decisions and do not necessarily behave as they would if the transactions were real. Note, however, that a vignette design also has at least one major advantage in the present context: namely, our hypotheses assume transaction and embeddedness characteristics as given and exogenous. In fact, this will often be a problematic assumption. In particular (see Buskens 1999: Chapter 5), network embeddedness will be endogenous because buyers search for competent, reliable and trustworthy suppliers, certainly so if transactions are associated with serious risks. Searching, however, affects network embeddedness, since it yields information on and access to other buyers from the supplier as well as to alternative suppliers. Much more than, for example, a survey on real transactions, a vignette design allows us to abstract from problems due to the endogeneity of transaction and embeddedness characteristics. Operationalization of transaction characteristics and social embeddedness The virtual transactions are represented by eight characteristics. These vignette characteristics operationalize the variables we expect theoretically to have an effect on management effort. Figure 1 describes the vignette characteristics by the chosen categories. While operationalizing institutional embeddedness, we assumed a higher number to mean that a Dutch purchase manager is more familiar with the institutions of the supplier’s country. The vignette characteristic that operationalizes the shadow of the past consists of three categories. Every category indicates whether or not a relationship exists. In addition, two of the categories refer to the success of the relationship. According to a study by Batenburg et al. (1999), transactions with an unsuccessful past are very scarce. Vignettes should be realistic (Faia 1980); for this reason we omitted unsuccessful pasts. However, we varied the degree of success of the relationship. One category presented a successful past; the second presented a somewhat less successful past, where minor problems sometimes occurred. We operationalized the shadow of the past as the length of the relationship and the success of the relationship. Considering the validity and reliability of the judgements, we chose to represent a limited amount of information in a vignette, to prevent cognitively overloading respondents. By varying the categories of the vignette characteristics, multiple vignettes can be created. One value (category) of each vignette 130 ACTA SOCIOLOGICA 2000 VOLUME 43 Fig. 1. Description of vignette characteristics. characteristic is put on the vignette. The population of vignettes, the total number of unique vignettes, thus consists of all possible combinations of the different categories of the different characteristics. The total number is 7,290 vignettes. Figure 2 shows one vignette from this population. Operationalization: effort Each respondent was asked to provide an estimate of the effort he or she would put into the management of a transaction in reality. We distinguish two aspects of effort: time and involvement of departments. ‘Time investments’ refers to the total time spent on negotiations for the management of a transaction. This was measured on a ve-point scale. ‘Involvement of departments’ refers to the number of depart- ments involved in negotiations for the management of the transaction. In addition to the purchase department, the following departments of a buyer are distinguished: the production department, development department, quality service, legal department and general management. The correlation between the number of departments involved and time investments is reasonably high (r = 0.45; p = 0.000). To get an indication of the total number of man-hours spent on the management of the transaction, management effort is operationalized as the product of invested time and the number of departments involved in management. Operationalization: human capital The human capital of a purchase manager is Inter-firm Co-operation and Social Embeddedness 131 Fig. 2. Example of a vignette. measured as the number of years of operational and strategic buying experience of that purchase manager. Control variable: practical experience with vignette According to Faia (1980), efforts should be made to ensure that the vignettes being judged are realistic. To control this, we asked respondents to state how far the vignette resembles their own practice. This was measured on a vepoint scale. Control variable: course Our respondents are participants on a course for Dutch purchase managers; data were collected from participants in an earlier course as well as an ongoing course (see below). To control for possible differences between ex-participants and participants in the ongoing course, we included a dummy variable in our analyses. Data collection Our respondents are 40 participants and exparticipants on a management course on ‘strategic purchase’. This course is designed for purchase managers of medium-sized and large rms in The Netherlands. The purchase managers were mostly senior buyers, heads of purchasing departments or strategic purchase managers. The data were collected in February 1995 during two meetings. The rst meeting was a reunion attended by a group of 16 exparticipants in the course; the second meeting was attended by a group of 24 participants in an ongoing course. Each participant was given a set of 10 vignettes. Eight of the 10 vignettes were part of a random sample (no duplicates were allowed) from the total number of unique vignettes (n = 7,290). To increase variance in transaction characteristics, we added two vignettes to each of the eight randomly selected vignettes, one with a relatively ‘problematic’ transaction and one with a relatively ‘unproblematic’ transaction. A transaction is considered to be problematic if we expect that on the basis of the ‘economic’ characteristics, a considerable amount of effort will be invested into the management of the transaction. The two vignettes were drawn from a subpopulation of vignettes that are made up of, respectively, problematic or unproblematic scores on the economic characteristics and random scores on embeddedness characteristics. The rst group of 16 participants judged all 10 vignettes, for a total of 160 vignettes. The second group had to work with a time limit. As a result, not every participant judged all 10 vignettes. The total number of vignettes in the second group came to 190. The total number of vignettes was 350, 40 of which were ‘problematic’ and 35 ‘unproblematic’ transactions. Two vignette judgements contained too many missing values and were removed from the data set. Hence, our analyses are based on 348 vignettes. Analytical strategy One purchase manager judged multiple vignettes. Therefore, our data are characterized by a hierarchical structure (vignettes ‘nested’ in purchase managers). Ordinary least square estimation on nested data involves some wellknown problems (see, for example, Bryk & Raudenbush 1992). Standard errors are under- 132 ACTA SOCIOLOGICA 2000 VOLUME 43 Table 1. Multi-level regression analysis of the effort invested in the management of transactions (unstandardized regression coef cients, standard errors in brackets, n = 348, 40 purchase managers). Hypothesis Constant Transaction characteristics Speci c investments Uncertainty Volume Embeddedness of transaction Past Future (dummy, future = 1) Voice network Exit network Institutional embeddedness Interaction effects Future past Exit network investments Respondent characteristic Human capital Control variables Practical experience with transaction Course (dummy, reunion = 1) Model t Difference in deviance Signi cance difference + + + Model A Model B Model C Model D - 0.006 0.016 0.021 0.023 0.202*** (0.043) 0.182*** (0.046) 0.639*** (0.044) ? 0.157*** (0.043) 0.149*** (0.047) 0.626*** (0.043) 0.144*** (0.043) 0.158*** (0.046) 0.633*** (0.043) - 0.099** (0.040) - 0.033 (0.068) - 0.037 (0.067) 0.048 (0.062) 0.139*** (0.043) 0.154*** (0.046) 0.627*** (0.043) 0.056 (0.062) - 0.032 (0.067) - - 0.061* (0.042) - 0.068* (0.039) - 0.070* (0.042) - 0.051* (0.045) - 0.057* (0.045) - 0.064* (0.045) - 0.106*** (0.026) - 0.110*** (0.025) - 0.102*** (0.026) - - 0.269*** (0.084) - 0.280*** (0.084) - - 0.003** (0.001) 0.013 (0.049) 0.018 (0.049) - 0.063 (0.043) - 0.022 (0.131) 250.70 (3df) p = 0.000 26.74 (5df) p = 0.000 10.23 (2df) p = 0.006 6.28 (3df) p = 0.099 * p < 0.05; ** p < 0.01; *** p < 0.001. estimated (or in some cases overestimated) because residuals are not independent. The Hierarchical Linear Model (HLM) or Multi-Level Model offers a solution to these statistical problems. Conceptually, HLM can be seen as a hierarchical system of regression equations: a regression equation at the level of transactions and a regression equation at the level of purchasing managers. By adding a regression equation at the level of purchase managers, it is possible to model systematic differences in management between purchase managers and to explain these differences, e.g., via differences in human capital. We made use of the program ML3 (Prosser et al. 1991) for this estimation. It estimates the coef cients on both levels simultaneously. 4. Results Table 1 presents the results of the test of our hypotheses. Four models are presented. In each model, variables are added to the regression equation. The ‘deviance’, which is presented at the bottom of the table, indicates the degree to which the model ts the data. The lower the deviance, the better the t. If two models are nested – one model is a special case of the other – then the difference in deviance has a Chisquare distribution. The degrees of freedom are then equal to the difference in the number of estimated parameters in the two models (Hox 1995). The hierarchical linear model enables us to model differences in management between purchase managers. To do this, the intercept or regression coef cients are allowed to vary. This results in estimations on the level of vignettes and the level of the purchase managers. These so-called ‘variance components’ are presented in Table 2. We do not present the proportion of explained variance. In regression models, it is only meaningful to present explained variance if the design is observational (Snijders & Bosker 1994). Experimental Inter-firm Co-operation and Social Embeddedness 133 Table 2. Differences in judgment among purchase managers: variance components of three models. Variance on level purchase managers Intercept Slope volume Slope transaction-speci c investments (t.s.i.) Covariance Intercept, slope t.s.i. Intercept, slope volume Slope t.s.i., slope volume Variance on level vignettes Error variance Empty model Model E Model F 0.096 (0.046) 0.127 (0.036) 0.069 (0.027) 0.045 (0.022) 0.112 (0.034) 0.060 (0.025) 0.040 (0.020) 0.072 (0.023) 0.046 (0.023) - 0.009 (0.017) 0.064 (0.021) 0.034 (0.021) - 0.015 (0.016) 0.284 (0.026) 0.282 (0.026) 0.901 (0.072) research is characterized by the fact that the researcher determines the stimuli, and therefore also the variance of the independent variables. This variance, partly, in uences the amount of explained variance. Therefore the explained variance depends on the construction of the vignette characteristics. Rossi and Anderson (1982) interpret the amount of explained variance as a measure for ‘social consensus’. They reason as follows: if there is perfect agreement about the ‘right’ response to a vignette, then the regression model will predict every vignette judgment perfectly. However, they themselves give a number of reasons (including measurement errors) why this measure is a dubious one. Hypotheses testing Model A in Table 1 gives the coef cients of the ‘economic’ vignette characteristics. All three weights are in the expected direction and are highly signi cant. Hypotheses 1, 2 and 3 are thus con rmed by the results. The purchase managers take the volume of a transaction very much into consideration: the coef cient of volume is more than three times as large as the coef cient of uncertainty and speci c investments. In Model B, the main effects of embeddedness characteristics are added. The coef cient of the shadow of the past is signi cant and in the expected direction. The more a buyer and supplier share a past, the less effort a buyer puts into the management of a transaction. This result supports Hypothesis 4. An analysis (not reported here) omitting the category with a somewhat less successful past did not change the results. Theoretically, we were not able to predict a main effect for the shadow of the future, because we expect the shadow of the future to have two opposite effects: a reciprocity effect and an investment effect. The results of the analysis do not give a clear clue as to which of these effects is stronger: the coef cient of the shadow of the future is small and insigni cant. Turning to network effects, the results support Hypothesis 6: the larger the voice network, the less effort will be invested in the management of a transaction. Purchase managers take the size of the exit network into consideration when judging a vignette: the more alternative suppliers there are, the less effort will be put into the management. Thus, the data support Hypothesis 7. Hypothesis 9 on institutional embeddedness is also supported: the purchase managers strongly take into account the country of a supplier. When institutional embeddedness is stronger, buyers will put less effort into the management of transactions. In Model C, we add the interaction effects. Hypothesis 5 receives support: there is a strong and signi cant interaction between the shadow of the future and a common past. Buyers will put less effort into a transaction when a common past is combined with the shadow of the future. This effect disappears when there is no common past, and the shadow of the future exists. Another interaction effect was included in Hypothesis 8, stating that transactionspeci c investments will interact with the exit network. This hypothesis is not supported by the data. In Model D we add the human capital variable and the two control variables. Hypothesis 10 is supported. The amount of human capital of a purchase manager has a signi cant and negative effect on the effort that will be put into the management of a transaction. The coef cients of the two control variables are not signi cant. First, it does not matter if a purchase 134 ACTA SOCIOLOGICA 2000 manager recently participated in the course. This result implies that the likelihood that judgements will be guided by social desirability motives is low. We would expect the group that judged the vignettes while participating in the course to be more prone to judge the vignettes in a socially desirable way. Our second control variable refers to practical experience with the transaction described at the vignette. It turns out that such practical experience does not matter for the judgment of a vignette. Note that our dependent variable, management effort, is a product of the time that a purchase manager would invest in the management of a transaction and the number of departments that would be involved. In analyses not reported here, we checked to see if results differ for different operationalizations of the dependent variable, such as, e.g., the sum of time invested and the departments involved. It turns out that results are robust relative to such variations in constructing the dependent variable. Differences between purchase managers Table 2 presents the variance components of different models. The rst model is the empty model. Only the intercept is included as explanatory variable. The empty model gives us estimates of the variance in the effort for management on the level of vignettes, and it also gives us estimates on the level of purchase managers. This makes it possible to calculate an intra-class coef cient (dividing the variance on the level of agents by the total variance). The intra-class coef cient gives an indication of the dependence between observations within purchase managers, and here it amounts to 0.096. This means that about 10 percent of the variance in management effort can be attributed to systematic differences between purchase managers. The explanatory variables of Model D, the ‘economic’, ‘embeddedness’, interaction, respondent and control variables, are also included in Model E. Besides the intercept, the coef cients of volume and transaction-speci c investments vary in this model. Purchase managers vary in the degree to which they take volume and speci c investments into account. The mean slope (coef cient) of volume is 0.625. The standard deviation of that coef cient is Ö 0.069 = 0.262. This means that about 95 percent of the purchase managers have a coef cient between 0.101 and 1.149. The differences in the degree to which volume is VOLUME 43 taken into account are considerable. The mean slope for transaction-speci c investments is 0.129. The standard deviation of this slope is Ö 0.045 = 0.212. This means that about 95 percent of the judgements of purchase managers have a slope between - 0.295 and 0.552. Again, differences between purchase managers are considerable. In addition to the variances of the intercept and slopes, covariances between the intercept and slopes can be estimated. These covariances are also presented in Table 2. It is now possible to calculate correlations. The correlation between the slope of volume and the intercept is 0.046/Ö (0.127 0.069) = 0.502. The correlation between the slope of transactionspeci c investments and the intercept is 0.072/ Ö (0.127 0.045) = 0.951. Purchase managers who, on average, will invest great effort into a transaction, take the volume of a transaction and the amount of speci c investment strongly into account in their judgements. The variance in the slopes can be explained by adding a cross-level interaction (interaction between a purchase manager characteristic and a vignette characteristic) to the model (see, for example, Bryk & Raudenbush 1992). In Model F, the interaction between human capital and volume is added, as is the interaction between human capital and transaction-speci c investments. The rst mentioned interaction (volume human capital) is signi cant (b = - 0.002, p < 0.01). By adding the cross-level interaction, the residual variance in the slope of volume decreases. This interaction shows that the more human capital a purchase manager possesses, the less he or she will take the volume of a transaction into account. The second cross-level interaction (transaction-speci c investments human capital) is not signi cant. Results for randomly sampled vignettes We have mentioned that our sample of vignettes somewhat overrepresents ‘problematic’ as well as ‘unproblematic’ transactions. In analyses not reported here (see Selten 1996), we checked for the robustness of the results when deleting the additional ‘problematic’ and ‘unproblematic’ transactions from our sample. It turns out that the results remain stable when using a purely random sample of vignettes. 5. Conclusion and discussion Social embeddedness of transactions makes Inter-firm Co-operation and Social Embeddedness 135 other management mechanisms than contractual planning feasible. The results of the vignette experiment reported here support the notion that while managing a transaction, purchase managers take not only ‘economic’ characteristics into account, but also the ‘social’ characteristics of a transaction. In this study, two types of social embeddedness have been distinguished. Structural embeddedness in social relations covers temporal and network embeddedness, and can be distinguished from institutional embeddedness. In general, the more a transaction is embedded, the less effort will be invested into the management of that transaction. Compared to earlier research on ‘embeddedness effects’, we rst contribute to new theory and research on the effects of temporal embeddedness by disentangling the prior history of transactions between a buyer and supplier from expected future business between the partners. We predict that a history of successful earlier transactions between the partners will reduce efforts invested into the management of today’s transaction. We nd empirical support for this prediction. The main effect of the ‘shadow of the future’ on management efforts is problematic. Expected future business allows for conditional co-operation, and this reciprocity effect of the shadow of the future should reduce management effort. On the other hand, efforts invested into the management of today’s transaction are, at least to some degree, likewise investments in the management of future business with the partner. This investment effect should increase management efforts so that the net effect of the shadow of the future on management effort remains undecided. However, we were able to predict that the effect of future business depends on whether or not rms share a common past. Investments have already been made when buyer and supplier share a common past; hence, the incentive to invest is diminished. The reciprocity effect of ‘the shadow of the future’ is thus larger in that situation. Our prediction that the shadow of the past and the shadow of the future will interact was supported. This interaction effect was also found in the recent and related empirical study of Batenburg et al. (1999). They report on a comprehensive survey into the purchase of information technology (hardware and software). About 800 rms in The Netherlands participated in the study. These ndings suggest that the effects of the shadow of the future and the past can be fruitfully studied together. Our second contribution to research on embeddedness effects follows from the distinction between ‘voice’ and ‘exit’ networks. Both types of networks allow for conditional cooperation via future sanctions of opportunism in today’s transaction. Our results indicate that both types of networks do indeed reduce investments in transaction management. However, compared to the ‘shadow of the past’, purchase managers take less account of the size of voice and exit networks while judging vignettes. A methodological reason for this nding may be found in the construction of the vignettes. The vignette characteristic ‘shared past’ is, for a purchase manager, more informative than the vignette characteristic ‘voice network’, where the only thing mentioned is whether or not there are shared business partners. A second and theoretical reason may be that diffusion of information is costly and information gathered from third parties may be less accurate or even strategically distorted (Lorenz 1988; Raub & Weesie 1990, 1991; Williamson 1991; Blumberg 1998; Buskens 1999). A reputation in a network, then, will be less effective than a reputation in a dyad. Information from ‘own’ transactions is more accurate and also cheaper. Note a major advantage of vignette design for research on effects of network embeddedness: presumably, network embeddedness is endogenous in the sense that buyers search for competent, reliable and trustworthy suppliers. In that search, they establish ties with other buyers and also with other suppliers. A vignette design allows abstraction from such endogenous network characteristics. Institutional embeddedness is the third feature we highlight in this paper. We nd a strong effect of the nationality of a supplier on the effort put into the management of a transaction. Next to institutional embeddedness, the nationality of a supplier may, however, also measure the degree to which opportunism occurs in that country. This notion is supported by the ‘corruption perceptions index’ (von Lambsdorff 1998). This index measures perceptions of corruption in 85 countries. Our ranking of countries (see Figure 1) correlates perfectly with the ranking of the countries in the corruption perception index. Thus, it seems plausible that the nationality of the supplier not only measures institutional embeddedness, but also the degree to which opportunism is likely to occur. Furthermore, we may measure the effects of cultural difference on the effort invested into 136 ACTA SOCIOLOGICA 2000 management. A transaction with a German rm will cost a Dutch rm less than a comparable transaction with a Japanese rm. Japanese language and habits are less related to the Dutch culture than German language and habits. First version received February 1999 Final version accepted April 1999 Acknowledgements The authors thank Tom Snijders, Jeroen Weesie, Piet Hermkens, and their colleagues from the research program ‘The Management of Matches’ of Utrecht University for their valuable remarks. This research was made possible through funds of the NEVI Research Foundation (NRS) of the Dutch Association for Purchase Management (NEVI) for the projects ‘Co-operation between Buyer and Supplier’ and ‘Purchase of IT Products’, as well as by The Netherlands Organization for Scienti c Research NWO (PGS 50-370) for the PIONIER program ‘The Management of Matches’. The article is a thoroughly revised and improved version of an earlier paper in Dutch (Rooks et al. 1997). Notes 1 Note that here, as well as in the subsequent hypotheses, ‘effort’ refers to the effort of the buyer. 2 This part is based on Raub (1996) and Raub (1998). 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