How Global Weather Patterns
Affect Consumer Energy Demand
Northern Hemisphere Weather Pattern
ENSO
(El Niño Southern Oscillation)
El Niño
(Warm)
La Niña
(Cool)
PDO
(Pacific Decadal Oscillation)
WARM
COOL
Pacific Indices
• PDO - Pacific Decadal Oscillation
– “monthly SST anomalies in the North Pacific Ocean, poleward of 20N.
The monthly mean global average SST anomalies are removed to
separate this pattern of variability from any "global warming" signal
that may be present in the data.”
• ONI – Oceanic Niño Index
– “3 month running mean of SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region (5oN5oS, 120o-170oW), based on centered 30-year base periods updated
every 5 years”
• MEI - Multivariate ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) Index
– “the six main observed variables over the tropical Pacific. These six
variables are: sea-level pressure (P), zonal (U) and meridional (V)
components of the surface wind, sea surface temperature (S), surface
air temperature (A), and total cloudiness fraction of the sky (C).”
PDO and ENSO
Strong El Niño
El Niño vs. La Niña
El Niño vs. La Niña
Slight Temp.
Disagreement
ENSO
(El Niño Southern Oscillation)
El Niño
(Warm)
La Niña
(Cool)
Make sense?
1950-Current
Winter 1995-2014
Summer 1994-2013
1950-Current
1950-1969
PDO and ENSO
1970-1989
1990-2009
2010-Current
2010-Current
2010-Current
PDO(++), MEI(+), ONI(neutral)
Winter of 58-59
Winters of 93-94 & 03-04
2010-Current
2010-Current
Summary
• Strong positive Pacific Indices = Cooler Midwest Temps.
– El Niño
• Strong negative Pacific Indices = Warmer Midwest Temps.
– La Niña
Special Thanks
• Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean
– http://jisao.washington.edu
• Earth System Research Laboratory
– http://www.esrl.noaa.gov
• Climate Prediction Center
– http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
• Denzil L Welsh, AEP
– MWh data
• Images: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu;
http://www.intellicast.com; http://www.meted.ucar.edu