Door to Door Collection and Disposal Alternatives in Italy: Analysis of an Average Cost Function Abstract This paper analyses empirically the impact of the collection method and of the disposal characteristics of residual waste average costs per inhabitant, in a sample of 534 Italian municipalities from 2004 to 2010. The purpose of this work is to provide answers to very actual questions as: is the door to door collection more expensive? Is it better to bury residual waste or to incinerate it? Given a certain amount of garbage, is there an optimal quantity to be incinerated? Moreover, given that many communities use different dumpsites at the same time, which is the ideal number of disposal sites for unsorted waste? In order to answer these questions, I consider an average cost function, with cost per inhabitant as a dependent variable, using a translogarithmic specification and I estimate it with the SUR method. The results indicate that cities should use the door to door system in order to collect waste and to increase recycling, bring the residual rubbish in only one disposal site, which has to be preferably a WTE plant, located as close as possible to the place where garbage is produced. The law requirement of 65% of differentiation does not bring about an increase in the service costs; this target can be reached by all municipalities, no matter the size, while higher levels of sorting are affordable only for cities with less than 50,000 inhabitants. If door-to-door collection is implemented, the set-up cost is amortized only if the recycling share increases. Moreover, the gap between the North and the South of the country for what concerns incineration should be filled and policy makers should provide a Waste to Energy plant development on a national scale, especially nearby large cities of the South. At the regional level, instead, disposal should be planned accordance with the European principles of proximity in order to ensure self-sufficiency of disposal sites. 1 1. Introduction Differentiated collection is a system of waste collection that groups garbage based on the type of material and it represents the first step in order to recycle. Whether waste is collected using street bins or it is divided within homes and recovered through the domestic collection, paper, glass, plastic, aluminum and iron materials collected separately allow one to have clean material fractions that, once purified by the presence of other materials, can be used in industrial production as secondary raw material. Separate collection, therefore, responds to two problems related to the exponential increase of the production of waste: the consumption of raw materials (decreased precisely through recycling) and the reduction in the amount of mixed waste to be disposed of in landfills or incinerators. The European Community took charge of these issues in the last two decades and has been the driving force for a better waste management in member countries and the Italian legislator has complied to the principles ratified by the European Union. Thus, on the one hand, the national legislation, implementing the main European Directive, the Waste Framework Directive 2008/98/EC, identifies specific objectives to be achieved regarding the recyclables collection, with a minimum of 35% in 2006, 45% to be reached by 2008 and 65% by 20121. On the other hand, the Italian legislator, inspired by the European directive on the reduction of the use of landfills 1999/31/EC, imposes strict limits on the reduction of biodegradable waste going to landfill. Finally, the Directive on packaging and packaging waste, 1994/62/EC, aims at recovering materials and energy by at least 60% by weight of packaging waste and to the recycling of 55% of these materials within 2008. Despite this ambitious objectives established by law, the country is traveling at three speeds: the North is close to the target, the Center only in very few areas is close to the Northern standard and the South in which, with few exceptions, the separate collection and the reduction of landfill disposal is a chimera. In Italy, the method of collection is able to heavily influence the recycling share, as it might be seen in Table 4 and 5 at the end of this paper. Municipalities use two main collection 1 Nowadays, the new deadline for the achievement of the 65% of RS is 31 December 2020, as established by the article 18 of the draft the law decree entitled "Provisions on environmental measures to promote green economy and for containment of the overuse of natural resources”. “The shift of the terms - may be read in this decree - it is necessary to adapt the legislative data to real data and to prevent municipalities to incur into penalties related to the failure to achieve these goals in the current terms of the law." The article then introduces a measure in order to penalize the municipalities that do not achieve the minimum targets for collection in time, given by an additional special tribute to the landfill, the proceeds of which will be fully used by the regions to support financially "incentives aimed at encouraging the market of recycling and recycled products". 2 procedures: big garbage bins and, where available, also recyclables bins placed on the public soil, usually on the pavement (in what follows “street bins”), and door to door (dtd) collection of both recyclables and unsorted waste. The use of the term “door to door” is an Italian particularity and, in recent years, borrowed by other European countries. In the UK and US, the closest thing to this kind of collection is the kerbside collection, with or without differentiation of waste (see Hirsch, 1965; Stevens, 1978; Domberger, 1986; Dubin and Navarro, 1988; Reeves and Barrow, 2000 and Bohm et al., 2010). The alternative to kerbside in the literature is the backyard collection, which is a more labour intensive method (see Domberger, 1986 for definition). The Italian use of big waste bins, instead, needs a much lower use of labour than door-to-door. The latter method, which is considered normal in other countries, was introduced in Italy for the first time during the Nineties with the only target to collect differentiated waste and to increase the sorting of recyclable materials and has become widespread in the last decade in order to respect the recycling shares established by law 152/2006. The transition from the street bins collection system (with or without recyclable collection) to dtd collection is made with the sole purpose of collecting higher amounts of separated waste to be sent for recycling2. Unlike what happens in other countries, in Italy there is no kerbside collection of only mixed waste. There are other collection methods that increase the differentiated share (for example, the use of locking mechanisms on the bins, which are accessed with a key associated with each user) but nowadays they are very rarely used or are in an experimental stage and thus not worthy to be taken into account. Another advantage of dtd is the MSW reduction and this will be clear throughout the paper. Indeed, the change in the collection system ensures that the waste illegally conferred on the road bins freely accessible find the right destination (flows from commercial activities dropped illicitly in the first available dumpster in order to avoid paying garbage fee disappear, as well as waste imported from commuters). Moreover, when the collection system is changed, also the assimilated waste norms are regulated and quantitative and qualitative limits are introduced, therefore contributing in reducing the waste collected within the urban waste. It is important to highlight that the overall waste quantity produced at a province level do not vary. Citizens are induced to be more responsible in buying products with less packaging, especially when introducing waste reducing policies as the pay as you throw tariff, but this 2 In Anglo- Saxon countries, however, the transition to dtd from the backdoor collectionis done with the sole objective of reducing the cost of labour, offering service which is considered inferior. In Italy happens the opposite: a system of low use of labor is abandoned against a more labor intensive one. The goals that the two methods, in fact, are different. 3 occurs in a small variation in quantity. The more plausible explanation for the waste reduction is the shift of the garbage from the circuit of municipal waste to the special waste one. In short, waste do not disappear but it finds another disposable solution and it’s accounted separately from the municipal one. Given that other countries use kerbside collection since many decades, which does not automatically imply differentiation, scholars use both the collection method and the percentage of collection of certain waste fractions as explanatory variables in the cost of service when dealing with the estimation of cost functions. Domberger et al. (1986), Szymanski and Wilkins (1993), Szymanski (1996) introduced in the model a dummy for the amount of paper and bottles collected and their impact on costs is positive. Dijkgraaf and Gradus (2003, 2007) take into account the percentage of glass, paper and organic fraction while only Bel and Costas (2006) and Bel and Fageda (2009) use the percentage of recycling in their research. In this chapter, instead, I use the door-to-door collection in order to assess the impact on costs of this method of collection which, as already stated, is the main instrument that Italian municipalities have in order to increase the recycling share and at the same time to reduce the use of landfills. Indirectly we have the impact on service costs of increasing the recycling share. This variable is used here for the first time. Italian studies estimating MSW cost functions in Italy are few (Antonioli et al., 2002; Abrate et al., 2012,2014) and, compared to them, I make an important step forward in filling the gap with the existing literature by using a different specification of the cost function and new independent varibles. The dtd system requires more resources than the street bins usage (and therefore one might expect an increase in the garbage service cost) but at the same time it diverts waste from landfill disposal so costs are reduced. It is therefore very interesting to assess the overall effect on costs of this compulsory choice for municipalities in order to adequate to the law limits. But not all the waste can be recycled thus it has to be burned or buried. In this paper I also want to evaluate how disposal characteristics affect the costs paid by citizens. Most papers measure the effect of the presence of a landfill (or an incinerator) in the municipality in order to take into account the impact of transportation on the garbage fees. Here I make an important step forward. I first introduce in my cost model the dummies used in the previous literature, showing that other variables might be more adequate in describing disposal features and the possibilities that a municipalities has in order get rid of residual waste. Thus, given that many communities use more than one dumpsite, I use the number of alternative destinations for unsorted rubbish as a dependent variable. Moreover, the km driven by trucks 4 in order to dispose waste and finally the percentage of incineration will be part of the model. Notice that the use of these variables represents an innovation in formulating the characteristics of the service as they have never been used, especially together, in the literature reviewed here. The estimation results allow me to make some general considerations on the policies to be taken at regional or national level on the organization of waste disposal. Furthermore, with regard to the use of door-to-door, I investigate if the fears that often managers and mayors have are founded. In fact, the most widespread critique in introducing this collection method that internalizes the costs of waste separation and optimizes the quality of the various fractions, is an increase in service costs (and hence in rates) which upsets consumers and induces a loss of electoral support. From a methodological point of view, I first estimate an average cost function with a translogarithmic specification and using SUR introduced by Zellner (1962). I bring a substantial innovation with respect to previous studies as I use the average cost per capita as dependent variable in order to better estimate the impact of door-to-door collection. The work is organized as follows. In the next section I show the literature regarding the main topics of this work (the method of collection and the disposal characteristics) while in the third section I go into the details of the cost model used in this analysis. In the fourth paragraph I describe the data set constructed for the purpose of this research and I present some descriptive statistics. Finally, in the fifth and sixth section I go respectively through the estimation procedure and the results while the seventh paragraph summarizes the main findings of this research. 2. Empirical background The empirical literature that studies the cost functions of the waste sector takes its roots 50 years ago, in 1965, when Hirsch publishes a first important contribution to the study of the costs of municipal waste. This pioneering model opened the way to a long series of research on the topic with different aims and methods. Regardless of the goal each paper, all the studies look for methods to improve the efficiency in waste management in order to reduce the costs borne by citizens. In what follows, I present the main outcomes of the empirical studies that deal with service characteristics such as the collection method and disposal alternatives. A major – although far from surprising – conclusion of these studies is 5 that a higher level of service (i.e., more frequent collection, pickup location more distant from the curb) is more costly than a lower level of service. 2.1. Literature on method of collection Since the seminal research of Hirsch (1965) the location of the collection point has been considered as a factor that can substantially influence the service cost. Stevens (1978), Domberger et al. (1986), Dubin and Navarro (1988), Szymanski and Wilkins (1993), Szymanski (1996) have considered different aspects of the kerbside system, with or without the collection of separated waste, which are distinguished by the level of service provided. In particular they contrast kerbside collection (in which the household brings itself on the pavement the garbage bins to be emptied) to the rear of house collection3 (in which the bins are left inside the yard and the operator provides to their movement and emptying). Since the collection methods considered in the literature are different from those existing in Italy, it is difficult to make comparisons with previous work for the impact of this variable. A clear result in the literature is that the higher the level of service the higher the cost. Surely, dtd collection corresponds to a better service, but at the same time it typically brings about an increase of the differentiated fractions, that will be recycled, so the costs of landfilling decreases. Hirsch (1965) makes a cross section analysis of the 1960 data for 24 cities in St. Louis and uses pick-up location as a cost determinant. He uses the kerbside collection as alternative to the rear of house one, without taking into account the possibility to collect different materials. He finds that picking up garbage from the rear doubles the costs with respect to the curb. Collins and Downes (1977), in order to analyse on one hand the cost advantages of cooperating with neighbouring communities and on the other the costs effects of providing garbage collection directly through a municipally operated system, consider two main alternative locations for the actual pickup of garbage at each residence. They are the street kerb, requiring the residents to carry the garbage out from the house each pickup day, or at the building line, assuming that that the latter is more expensive than kerb pickup because of the additional crew time required. Their findings highlight that the third most important characteristic influencing collection costs per month in an upward direction is, indeed, building line pickup. 3 This option, also called backdoor or point of storage collection requires to the operatives to collect rubbish from the residents normal storage point and return the container back to the storage point. This is arguably a higher level of service as the residents play little or no part in the collection process. 6 Also Stevens (1978), while addressing the topic of impact of market structure on costs using data of 340 US enterprises for the years 1974 and 1975, includes the collection method among the explanatory variables. She uses the percentage of households serviced by the firm at backyard collection points in the model and finds that an increase in this percentage, on average, resulted in a cost increase of 29%-34%, arguing that this result is reasonable, as backyard pickup requires more additional time. The study of Domberger et al. (1986) is much more complete than the ones seen above as it specifies five different collection alternatives while analysing the effect of the tendering process on refuse collection costs. The essential difference between the various methods lies in whether the customer has to carry his dustbin to and from the kerbside or whether this is done by employees. As previously in the literature, they show that backdoor method of collection is the most expensive method. The effect of a change from backdoor collection to kerbside collection is to reduce total cost by 23 per cent. In line with the previous paper, Szymansi and Wilkins (1993), Szymanski (1996) and Bello and Szymanski (1996) use the same model and dataset of Domberger et al. (1986) in order to analyse competitive tendering in sanitation services in the UK. To do this they have assembled data on refuse collection services over the 10 years period 1984-93. The authors identify three main options regarding designated pick-up points: kerbside, front of property and point of storage (backdoor). As in Domberger et al. (1986), kerbside collection significantly reduces costs and this explains the secular decline in back-door collection and the increase in kerbside/front of property collection, which allow for a 15% savings in citizens fees. 2.2. Studies on the method of disposal While early studies broadly focus on the collection method, the more recent ones take into consideration some disposal characteristics. The transportation cost between the municipality where collection takes place and the disposal site represents an important part of the service’s cost. To analyse this aspect, most scholars in the last two decades consider a dummy variable in order to show the existence of a landfill in the municipality or an incineration plant in the community. The presence of a disposal facility within the municipal district, in fact, may enable the cost of transporting waste from collection points to the disposal site to be reduced. These dummies are used in the absence of precise measurements 7 of the distance traveled by trucks and therefore the presence of a dump site in the city becomes the best approximation of transportation costs. Domberger et al. (1986), Szymanski (1996), Szymanski and Wilkins (1996) use a distance variable among the explanatory variables of their cost model finding that the greater is the distance to the disposal point where the collection vehicle is emptied the higher the cost. Callan and Thomas (2001) model the relationship between recycling and disposal activity and investigate the extent of product-specific scale economies and overall scope economies in this market for 110 of the 351 Massachusetts cities for year 1997. They include a landfill variable in the disposal cost function, since the presence of a landfill in the town should result in lower MSW transportation costs. The landfill parameter is negative, as expected, and this implies that communities that have their own local landfill incur lower disposal costs. Bel and Costas (2006) include the landfill in the municipality dummy in the cost function which has the main purpose to verify if the private production bring savings in the MSW collection. They argue that the transportation cost between the municipality where collection takes place and the disposal site represents an important part of the service’s cost and, indeed, they demonstrate that having a landfill within the municipality has cost-reducing effects. Bel and Fageda (2009) take into consideration the WTE plants. Their paper analyses the factors that determine solid waste service costs, using information derived from a survey conducted in a sample of Galician municipalities and they use a dummy variable approach to state the impact of an incineration plant within the municipal district. Authors say that this event may enable the cost of transporting waste from collection points to the incineration site to be lower and they expect the coefficient associated with this variable to be negative. As previously seen in the literature, the presence of a WTE plant within the municipal district leads to significant savings. Finally, it is worth remembering Bae (2010). His paper examines the effects of different institutional arrangements and characteristics on cost savings, efficiency gains and productivity of delivering municipal solid waste services for North Carolina municipalities. Among the control variables, he includes in the estimation whether a sanitary landfill facility is operated by the municipality, private company, county or regional entity. The author concludes that when the municipality collects residential solid waste, implements a recycling and reuse program, and operates a sanitary landfill facility, it may be able to reduce costs of solid waste collection, recycling, and disposal through economies of scope. Moreover, he uses the distance to a landfill site, but this variable seems to have no effect on cost. 8 The present model considers new and unique disposal characteristics. Instead of the presence of a landfill or incinerator in the municipality, a measure of distance is preferred as it gives more accurate information. Moreover, I consider how costs change with the WTE plant usage. Some municipalities bury all the unsorted garbage, others send it to an incinerator while a third category use both solutions. If a municipality choses to incinerate residual waste, I investigate how cost changes with the quantity of incinerated waste. Finally, I consider the impact of the number of disposal sites on the cost of service delivering. Both the percentage of incineration and the number of dump-sites are here used for the very first time. 3. Average cost function For the specification of the cost model I considered a municipality which collects, recycles and disposes solid waste, using three inputs, labour (L), capital (K) and energy (E). Output of solid waste management reflects both the annual collection of recycling and disposables materials (measured in kg per year). If it is assumed that the municipality minimizes cost and that the isoquants are convex, cost function can be written as4: 𝐶 = 𝑔((𝑄; 𝑧1 , 𝑧2 , … , 𝑧𝑚 ); 𝑃𝐿 , 𝑃𝐾 , 𝑃𝐹 ) [1] where: 𝐶 = gross cost of waste collection and disposal for the municipality 𝑄 = total amount of recyclable and disposable waste waste 𝑧𝑖 = service characteristics, local factors etc. 𝑃𝐿 = price of labour 𝑃𝐾 = price of capital 𝑃𝐹 = price of fuel In this paper I estimate an average cost function and cost per inhabitant5 (€/inh) is taken as the explained variable. The choice of expressing the cost data on the inhabitants (or on any other measure of population) instead of the tons of waste collected is made in order to avoid biased assessments related to different per capita production of waste in the various municipalities. Expressing average cost in terms of €/ton creates distortions because it does 4 See the previous chapter for derivation. According to Bel and Warner (2008), among the 18 empirical studies on solid waste collection that they reviewed, nine studies employed different measures of average cost as dependent variable, while 8 studies employed total costs. Different measures of average cost include cost per ton collected (Hirsch, 1965; Ohlsson, 2003), cost per collection unit and cost per employee (Szymanski and Wilkins, 1993), cost per household (Szymanski, 1996), and cost per yard of garbage collected (Dubin and Navarro, 1988). 5 9 not take into account the different total waste intercepted by the alternative collection systems. This parameter, in fact, increases as the amount of waste collected decreases. This effect does not make it obvious, but on the contrary reverses, the benefit resulting from the reduction in total waste intercepted in the application of policies to reduce waste or in the transition from a street bins collection system to the door-to-door one6. Surely the estimation of AC in €/inh per year is more fair and effective. This takes automatically into account the benefits resulting from the reduction of overall waste production, and is also better suited to the cost of the service paid by the citizen with the waste tariff (especially if there are in force variable tariff schemes that take into account, for example, the number of family members). The translog average cost function is written and estimated in the same manner as the total cost function used in the previous chapter except that: average cost replaces total cost as the dependent variable; the two outputs of the cost function (undifferentiated and differentiated waste) become a single output: the garbage per capita produced by citizens. The normalization on population reduces multicollinearity as population and total waste both exhibit a very high correlation and this might lead to inconsistent estimates; the municipality population enters in the cost function as a control variable. First of all, it is necessary to select the appropriate function g in equation [1]. It is necessary to select a suitable expression, which imposes the minimum set of limitations to the characteristics of the production function. There are a number of functions with these characteristics available today, such as the transcendental logarithmic function (TLF), the Leontief generalized function, the generalized quadratic function and others. A common characteristic of all these functions is that they can provide a certain approach to the formulation of a cost function. For this empirical analysis, I rely on a version of the translog cost function, which is based on the functional form initially proposed by Christensen et al. [1973]. The transcendental logarithmic cost function I intend to use for the present work can be written as follows: 𝐴𝐶 ∗ 𝑃 𝑃 𝑃 𝑃 ln (𝑃 ) = β0 + β𝑄 ln 𝑄𝑝𝑐 + β𝐿 ln (𝑃 𝐿 ) + β𝐾 ln ( 𝑃𝐾) + β𝐿𝐾 ln (𝑃 𝐿 ) ln ( 𝑃𝐾 ) + 𝐹 𝐹 𝑃𝐿 𝑃𝐾 1 𝐹 𝐹 2 β𝑄𝐿 ln 𝑄𝑝𝑐 ln (𝑃 ) + β𝑄𝐾 ln 𝑄𝑝𝑐 ln ( 𝑃 ) + 6 𝐹 𝐹 2 𝐹 2 1 𝑃𝐿 β𝑄𝑄 (ln 𝑄𝑝𝑐 ) + 2 β𝐿𝐿 (ln (𝑃 )) + 𝐹 Lombardy Regional Program of Waste Management approved by DGR n. X of 20/06/2014. 10 1 2 𝑃 2 β𝐾𝐾 (ln ( 𝐾)) + β1 (𝑑𝑡𝑑) + β2 (ln 𝑟𝑠_𝑑𝑡𝑑) + β3 (ln 𝑝𝑜𝑝) + β4 (𝑛_𝑑𝑒𝑠𝑡) + β5 (%_𝑖𝑛𝑐) + 𝑃𝐹 β6 (𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡) + β7 (𝑡𝑜𝑢𝑟) + β8 (𝑠𝑜𝑐𝑖𝑎𝑙_𝑐𝑜𝑜𝑝) + β9 (ln 𝑎𝑙𝑡) + β10 (𝑛𝑜𝑟𝑡ℎ) + β11 (𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟) + β12 (𝑠𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑙) + β13 (𝑚𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑢𝑚) + β𝑖 (𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑖 ) [2] where dtd is a dummy variable indicating whether the municipality has a door to door collection system, rs_dtd is an interaction between recycling share and dtd dummy that shows how dtd costs change with the recycling share. N_dest indicates the number of disposal sites for undifferentiated waste, %_inc represents the percentage of residual waste disposed in a WTE plant while the dist variable specifies the distance trucks have to travel in order to dispose the unsorted garbage. Also local factors are used in order to better understand costs. In fact, tour is an index of the presence of tourists, alt indicates the altitude of a city while social_coop is a dummy showing the presence of a social cooperative in the province. Finally, yearly (yeari), macro-regional (north, center) and dimensional dummies (small, medium) are employed in order to control for unexplained variations across years and different parts of Italy. Note that by normalizing total cost and input prices by one of the input prices, I impose the theoretical condition that the cost function is linearly homogeneous in input prices. One way of estimating the parameters in the total cost function is to estimate the cost function directly using ordinary least squares. This approach generates consistent and unbiased estimates. However, the efficiency of the estimates can be improved by using a system of seemingly unrelated equations. The system consists of the average cost function [2], as well as n equations, each associated with the demand for a factor of production, which are derived by applying Shephard’s lemma to the cost function. Thanks to this joint estimation, new statistical information is introduced without increasing the number of coefficients of the system, improving the efficiency of the estimation procedure. 𝜕 ln 𝑇𝐶 𝜕𝑇𝐶 𝑃𝑖 𝑃𝑖 = = 𝑋𝑖 = 𝑆𝑖 , (𝑖 = 𝐿, 𝐾, 𝐹) 𝜕 ln 𝑃𝑖 𝜕𝑃𝑖 𝑇𝐶 𝑇𝐶 [3] where Xi is the optimal factor demand and Si is the relative share. Hence, from equation [2] the following shares are derived: 𝑆𝐿 = 𝜕 ln 𝑇𝐶 𝑃𝐾 𝑃𝐿 = β𝐿 + β𝐿𝐾 ln ( ) + β𝐿𝐿 ln ( ) + β𝐷𝐿 ln(𝑌𝐷 ) + β𝑅𝐿 ln(𝑌𝑅 ) 𝜕 ln 𝑃𝐿 𝑃𝐹 𝑃𝐹 [4] 𝑆𝐾 = 𝜕 ln 𝑇𝐶 𝑃𝐿 𝑃𝐾 = β𝐾 + β𝐾𝐿 ln ( ) + β𝐾𝐾 ln ( ) + β𝐷𝐾 ln(𝑌𝐷 ) + β𝑅𝐾 ln(𝑌𝑅 ) 𝜕 ln 𝑃𝐾 𝑃𝐹 𝑃𝐹 [5] 11 Because the cost shares add up to one, error terms are correlated across the cost share equations and the covariance matrix is singular, it is necessary to delete one share equation. In this paper, the share equation of fuel7 was deleted8 (Bae, 2010). Our system, therefore, has three equations: the translog cost function [2] and the share equations of labour [4] and capital [5] and I estimate it using Zellner’s seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) method, to increase efficiency (Zellner, 1962). 4. Data and variables This paragraph describes the variables used, paying particular attention to door-todoor collection and to disposal characteristics. More information on the overall dataset construction can be found in the previous chapter of this dissertation. I here analyse 534 Italian Municipalities providing waste disposal and recycling services over a period of seven years, from 2004 to 2010. The total number of this balanced panel consists of 3,738 pooled observations. 4.1. Data sources As already mentioned, this database was constructed ad hoc and to the best of our knowledge is the largest one used to estimate the phenomena we consider. Abrate et al. (2012, 2014) used data of 529 Italian municipalities for a period of three years (2004-2006) and their work is an important step forward in the cost function estimation. I have updated and expanded their dataset with other variables that could better describe the characteristics of the waste management which have a strong impact on cost. These are: the presence of door-todoor collection, the method of waste disposal, the distance covered in order to reach the site of the final disposal, tourism information and other local factors as the presence of social cooperatives in a given area. Data on costs and output were obtained from the annul declarations concerning MSW collection, transportation, treatment, preparation for recycling and disposal, which firms must submit yearly to the local Chamber of commerce. Information on input prices were drawn 7 The input whose share equation we drop from the estimating system is the same of the price by which we normalize. 8 When either the share equation capital or the share equation of labour is deleted, there is no difference in empirical results. 12 from institutional websites of the municipalities, telephone interviews made afterwards in order to complete the missing data and from the Aida – Bureau van Dijk database containing the restated financial statements of more than 700,000 Italian corporations. Finally, demographical and service characteristics were obtained from a variety of sources, presented below. In what follows I describe all the sources and the variables in a detailed manner and I conclude with a summarizing table with all the data. 4.1.1. Main Sources The most important source of data for this paper in the Modello Unico di Dichiarazione Ambientale, (MUD), a document that municipalities submit annually to Ecocerved, a company of the Italian Chambers of Commerce operating in the field of information systems for the environment. It contains information on the quality and quantity of waste produced, stored, transported, prepared for recycling and disposed during the previous year. This model also contains indications regarding the subjects to which waste has been given in order to be disposed of or recovered and allows the traceability of all waste produced in Italy. Municipalities have to fill it for what concerns the MSW produced on their territory by residents, tourists, workers or for non-hazardous commercial waste assimilated to urban. The following data9 were extracted from the MUD: Year; Municipality; Total municipal waste collected; Quantity of waste, divided by EWC code 200301 (residual municipal waste nondifferentiable further), code 200303 (street sweeping waste) and code 200307 (bulky waste)10; Costs and revenues; Municipality of destination of undifferentiated waste; Number of disposal sites; From the National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT11), which carries out every ten years the census of population and housing for each of the 8,057 Italian municipalities, I extracted 9 Please refer to the previous chapter for the data cleaning procedure. As we will see in the description of the variables used for the estimation, these three categories, along with the cemetery waste, form the class of undifferentiated waste. The amount of recyclable waste was obtained by difference with the total amount collected. 10 13 information on the number of inhabitants for the 534 municipalities in the dataset. Also geographical data regarding surface and altitude were obtained from Istat. As for factor prices, I first contacted the technical offices of municipalities or used the institutional websites of the city hall in order identify the company in charge of waste collection. Once I found the name of the main company responsible of the service, both municipal and private utilities, I carried out a search on AIDA12 and downloaded their financial statements from which it was possible to trace the average cost of labour and capital used in production. These companies carry out the collection and disposal of waste in many other cities, or they take care of other services related to the environment. I have assumed that the input costs are the same across services and across areas. Moreover, the same municipality can have more than one supplier but for simplicity, for what concerns this paper I only considered the factor prices of the main contractor of the service. Similarly, if the reference company has contracted out the service, I only considered its costs and not those of the contractors. Given that contracts should be regulated by national agreements, this does not seem to entail a major distortion. 4.1.2. Other sources Data on fuel prices were taken from the websites of the local Chambers of Commerce. In few regions the price of automotive fuel is available only upon payment and in those cases, in order to overcome the problem, I used the available data of the closest region. The same problem arose for some provinces, especially in the South of the country, where I substituted the missing information with the average price of the provinces in the same region. Another interesting variable that I surveyed is the destination of residual waste. As highlighted previously, Ecocerved provided the names of the municipalities where garbage was buried or burned. It was not possible to distinguish between the two alternatives from the Ecocerved data. Therefore, the first step in order to calculate the distances to reach the disposal site of undifferentiated waste was the identification of the WTE plants and the starting date of their activity, through the website of Federambiente13. I therefore assumed 11 Unlike Ecocerved data, the census is available for free at www.istat.it. https://aida.bvdinfo.com 13 Federambiente is an association that brings together companies, corporations and consortia providing services to the environment or applying the national collective labour contract in the industry. Federambiente is a trade union that works to ensure member companies the services and the support necessary for an integrated 12 14 that the destination of residual waste is a WTE plant if in the destination municipality there is an incinerator as it is reasonable to take advantage of the presence of a WTE where it exists14. By exclusion, all other destinations have been considered landfills. Through Google maps15 I then calculated the distances between the garbage collection point and its final disposal destination, taking the city centre as a proxy both for the departure and the arrival, except for incinerators where the exact location of a plant was available. For distances under 50 km I considered likely the use of secondary roads while if the distance from a municipality to the disposal site exceeded 50 km I considered reasonable the use of highways. An initial research of the starting date of the door-to-door was performed on municipality institutional websites, where in some cases there are special sections with references to the waste related services. Secondly, I placed direct enquiries with the city hall. Finally, for those municipalities who didn’t reply, I used less formal research and the starting year of the door-to-door collection has been inferred from articles in local newspapers found on the internet. In a few cases, corresponding to approximately 5% of the sample, it was not possible to find out the way garbage was collected. I assumed that cities use the traditional garbage bin when the percentage of differentiated collection was stable over time while, in those municipalities that from year to year showed a sudden increase in the share of recyclables collection, the year of increase was considered as the starting date of door-to-door. Data on tourism have been taken from the National Observatory of Tourism (ONT)16 and in particular I considered an indicator of the density of accommodation in terms in terms of number of beds per square km. I considered all the facilities in the area, not only hotels: camps and villages, hostels, holiday homes, cottages, lodges and bed and breakfast. The accommodation capacity is certainly not an indication of successful touristic flow for a given municipality in a given year but, in the absence of other data, it is a good approximation of the impact of tourism on an area and allows a comparison between the various territories. The ONT contains data up to 2008 and thus for the years 2009 and 2010 I used in the 2008 data. management of the waste cycle and comparison with a competitive market-oriented quality. (www.federambiente.it) 14 The European Union defines a hierarchy of priorities according to which each country should focus on the prevention of waste, then on the recycling and eventually on other forms of indirect exploitation of waste, while landfill becomes a residual solution (Directives No. 91/156/EEC and 2008/98/EEC). 15 https://www.google.it/maps 16 http://www.ontit.it 15 The last variable I considered in my dataset is the presence of Social Cooperatives17 that deal with the collection of municipal solid waste. I obtained data about their presence in a given area from the database of LegaCoop18, the main association that deals with representation, protection, assistance and supervision of the member cooperatives. The cost of labour in social cooperatives, established by National Collective Bargaining Agreement, is lower than other contracts, resulting in significant savings for the clients19. 4.2. Variables description It may be useful to organize variables in five categories: output data, factor prices, local factors, collection method and disposal characteristics. 4.2.1. The dependent variable The dependent variable I consider is the average cost per inhabitant, equal to the total cost of the service20 divided the population in the municipality. In the first model, however, I show the estimation of AC in €/ton (or any quantity unit), an exercise that is often misleading because in the transition from street bins to the dtd system it gives the false impression that the costs will increase considerably. In fact, when a municipality switches to dtd collection, the volume of waste often decreases due to the concurrence of the following factors: flows illicitly conferred by commercial activities (in order to avoid paying garbage fee) that find a large dumpster available on road, disappear; waste imported from commuters who come from areas where there is already in place a system of curbside collection (and bins were removed from the road), disappear; 17 Social cooperatives are a special type of cooperatives who manage health, education and social services or a variety of other activities (agricultural, industrial, commercial, trade, services) by allocating a portion of the jobs created, at least 30%, to people who have difficulty in entering the world of work as physically or mentally disabled, drug addicted, alcoholics, people under psychiatric treatment. (Law 381/91). 18 www.lagacoop.coop 19 http://fpcgil.it/ 20 Total cost is the sum of labour, capital and fuel cost borne by the municipalities. As mentioned previously, it includes both not differentiated waste cycle costs (sweeping and cleaning of public roads, collection and transportation, treatment and disposal) and recyclables costs (collection, treatment and preparation for recycling) in addition to the aforementioned common and capital cost. 16 the collection of assimilated waste is regulated and quantitative and qualitative limits are introduced; citizens are induced to be more responsible because of waste reducing policies in the presence of a pay as you throw tariff. For these reasons, in order to better estimate the impact of door-to-door collection, I decided to use the average cost per capita. This variable too presents some biases as the calculation only considers resident population which is not always linearly related to the number of users served by the collection service (eg. touristic flows, non-domestic users, etc.). The parameter €/inh (which consider only residents), in fact, penalizes municipalities with more touristic arrivals and those with many non-domestic users, for whom, however, the municipality provides a service. An improvement of the parameter can be obtained by dividing the total cost by the number of households but it was impossible to calculate the number of domestic and non-domestic users since it is not compulsory to declare them in the Mud and at the same time, the rules of assimilation are not the same across municipalities. For what concerns touristic presence, a touristic index was introduced in order to obtain more homogeneous and comparable results. 4.2.2. Independent variables Waste quantity The output I consider is the per capita quantity of waste (QPC). This is given by the sum of unsorted and residual waste, which represents the garbage sent to a disposal site, and differentiated waste (mainly paper, glass, plastic, aluminium) which will be sent to recycling. I will therefore divide total waste by the number of residents in each municipality and obtain a per capita annual production, expressed in kilograms. I expect to find a positive relationship between the volume of waste generated and total costs. Therefore, the coefficient associated with this variable should be positive. Factor prices The productive factors considered are: labour, capital and fuel: 17 Pl: average labour price in the company that manages the waste services in the municipality represented by the ratio of the total salary expenses to the number of employees; Pk: average capital price in the company that manages the waste services in the municipality determined as depreciation cost divided by the capital cost; Pf: average fuel price during the year. I obviously expect positive coefficients for all factor prices. In order to estimate a translog cost function, it is also necessary to consider the cost share of labour and capital, obtained respectively from expenditures on solid waste salaries and capital divided by total solid waste expenditures. Local Factors There are many factors that differentiate one city from another and which affect the MSW cost. The most important is certainly the population (POP) of the municipality as residents are the main producers of waste. As an explanatory element of variability between municipalities I have also considered the altitude (ALT) measured in meters above sea level because I expect a greater difficulty for the trucks to reach and collect waste in those municipalities situated on a hill or in the mountain. In fact, some areas located at high altitude don’t have a widespread road network or are more difficult to be reached. As introduced above, also the level of touristic activity in the municipality is potentially very important. There are only few examples of the use of this variable into waste management cost function estimation (Bel and Costas, 2006; Bel and Fageda, 2009). However, the importance of this activity in the Italian geographical context makes its inclusion advisable in this empirical analysis for several reasons. First of all, the volumes produced in terms of kg per resident inhabitant are greater in areas with high touristic flows. Moreover peak seasons require additional efforts, i.e. changes in frequency, using more inputs, etc. Thus, tourism intensity should bring about higher costs. I take as a measure for tourism (TOUR) the supply of accommodation facilities in terms of beds/km2, including all the facilities in the area, not only hotels: camps and villages, hostels, holiday homes, cottages, lodges and bed and breakfast. This does not accurately indicates the actual number of tourists in a given municipality for a particular year but captures the trend of tourists in previous years. In fact, the supply of beds in touristic facilities varies annually according to the flows 18 of previous years and reflects what managers of accommodations expect for the current season. I suppose a positive influence of this variable on the cost. Another Italian feature is the presence, in some provinces, of social cooperatives dealing with waste collection. These cooperatives can either compete with other operators for a waste management tender, or manage the collection of garbage in subcontracting for the main manager. Moreover, they certainly have a lower labour cost and in the areas where they operate I expect competition to reduce costs. The variable SOCIAL_COOP, in fact, is a dummy that takes the value 1 when in the province there are more than three social cooperatives operating in the field and 0 otherwise. In order to take into account regional differences, I considere here the geographical distribution commonly used in Italy between North, Center and South. The dummy NORTH, then, takes the value of 1 if the municipality considered belongs to one of the eight northern regions (Emilia-Romagna, Friuli-Venezia Giulia, Liguria, Lombardy, Piedmont, Trentino Alto Adige, Valle d'Aosta and Veneto) and zero otherwise. The dummy CENTER takes the value 1 if the municipality belongs to one of the regions of central Italy (Lazio, Marche, Tuscany and Umbria). The reference area is considered the SOUTH, including the islands, with 8 regions (Abruzzo, Basilicata, Calabria, Campania, Molise, Puglia, Sardinia and Sicily). In addition to the areas of belonging, I have also taken into consideration size dummies. A city is SMALL if it has a population of less than 12,000 inhabitants, it is MEDIUM if the number of residents are between 12000 and 50000 and while it is considered BIG if the resident population is greater than 50000. As it will be clear soon after, the dimensional categories are chosen in such a way to reflect cities with similar features with respect to recycling share and disposal characteristics. Collection method The collection method is a very important variable in determining both the cost of the service and the performance of recycling. As it has been mentioned several times in this work, the collection through road bins permit the achievement of very low rates of recycling so many municipalities introduce door to door collection to comply with national legislation. Although this type of collection has reached high diffusion, many municipalities are still reluctant to adopt it because they fear an increase in costs. The dtd, in fact, is a laborintensive method of collection. It is therefore very interesting to see its impact on the 19 economic costs of the service. DTD is a dummy variable that takes the value 1 if the municipality makes the dtd collection and 0 if street bins are used. A clear result in the literature is that the higher the level of service the more cost increases. Surely, the dtd collection corresponds to a higher service but at the same time results in an increase of the differentiated fractions, that will be recycled, so the costs of landfilling decreases. It is difficult to predict the net effect on costs. I also consider the interaction between the collection method and the recycling share (RS_DTD) as an explanatory variable as is interesting to verify the impact on dtd when the recycling share increases. For reasons that will be clear below, I expect dtd costs to decrease when the quantity of separated waste grows. Disposal characteristics Once the waste is collected separately and prepared for recycling, Conai withdraws the various fractions upon the payment of a fee in order to sell them to companies as secondary raw materials. The different material fractions, therefore, are resources and become a return to the town. The unsorted garbage, however, is under the responsibility of municipality until disposal, which entails the payment of a fee that varies depending on the method of disposal (landfill or incineration) and on the location of the site. European laws set the goal to minimize the use of landfills, placing this disposal solution at the bottom in the waste hierarchy. All the countries, in fact, have to favor – in order – reuse, recovery, recycling, and finally the energy recovery through incineration. Despite this, many municipalities still use landfills, where prices have continuously risen in recent years due to lack of space, especially in urban areas with high population density. This increase in the price of landfilling has reversed the past trend and made incinerators more competitive. Unfortunately, many areas still lack these facilities. Thus, it becomes interesting to understand the impact of the disposal method on the total cost of the management of municipal solid waste. The variables I introduce are the following. INC is a dummy variable that takes the value of 1 if a city disposes its undifferentiated rubbish in an incinerator, with or without energy recovery, and 0 if it uses a landfill. Given that WTE plants are still not widespread, it is equally important to understand how total costs vary with the percentage of incineration (%_INC), which is a purely empirical question. None of the studies mentioned above have analyzed this phenomenon so that I do not have a precise idea of result to expect. Another variable, which appears here for the first time, is the number of disposal sites used on average to dispose the garbage (N_DEST). In principle, one might expect that 20 each municipality uses a single disposal facility, but this is not what one observes in the Italian case. Yet many of the municipalities in our dataset use regularly more than one alternative destination - possibly to diversify the risk that a specific landfill may be unable to receive more waste – so it seems relevant to analyze how this choice affects the cost of the service. Last but not least, the transportation cost between the collection point and the disposal site represents an important part of the service’s costs. In the existing literature various dummies are used in the absence of precise measurements of the distance traveled by trucks and therefore the presence of a dump site in the city becomes the best approximation of the distance to disposal. In this work, however, I calculate the actual kilometers traveled by vehicles (DIST) that collect the waste to the nearest disposal site. I expect the cost to increase with the distance. In one of the models estimated, I also consider the presence of a disposal site within the municipality (MUN_DISP) as a control variable because scholars used it in previous studies. For reasons that will be clear in a while, this variable was dropped as it is an approximation of the distance. Obviously, the presence of a WTE plant or of a landfill within the city perimeter should lower transportation cost. Thus, the precise number of km made by trucks to reach the closest disposal site is a more precise measure and it was preferred in the cost function estimation. Finally, six yearly dummies (Y_2005 to Y_2010) are included to control for possible unexplained changes over time. 4.3. Descriptive statistics The dataset we have used refers to a balanced panel of 534 Italian Municipalities providing waste disposal and recycling services. Data are representative of the 20 Italian regions over a period of 7 years for a total number of 3,738 pooled observations. The sample covers 35% of the Italian population, equally distributed between North, Center and South, and 37% of the total municipal solid waste produced by citizens. It includes 67% of those municipalities with a population over 250,000 and 51% of municipalities with a population between 60,000 and 250,000. It also comprehends 41% of the municipalities which have a population between 20,000 and 60,000 inhabitants. Finally, the sample has only 4.5% of Italian towns with less than 20,000 inhabitants, as they are the majority in our country (85%). Although in percentage terms it seems that municipalities with fewer than 20,000 inhabitants are under-represented, in absolute value the number of observations in this category are many. 21 Table 2 summarizes the characteristics of our average municipality while Table 3 presents the sample composition for different size categories. The average municipality of the sample has 39,197 inhabitants, that live in an area of 85 km2 with a density of 900 inh/ km2 and produces 22,460 tons of waste. Each inhabitant produces 574 kg per year of which 415 kilos are undifferentiated and disposable garbage while 159 kg are differentiated, the recycling share on a national level being almost 31%. The unsorted rubbish is incinerated only for 21.5% of the total amount. Trucks drive, on average, 25 km in order to reach the closest dumpsite and bring the waste in 1.7 alternative sites. Turning now towards the geographical breakdown of the dataset, 44% of observations refer to municipalities localized in Northern Italy and 56% in the Center and South of the country. Municipalities can be aggregated also on a dimensional basis in order for cities with similar characteristics in terms of recycling share and disposal features to be analysed together. We can identify three subsamples. I label as small municipalities the ones that have less than 12,000 inhabitants and they represent 28.6% of the sample. What distinguishes this category in a quite low recycling share (26%) and dtd collection (introduced in 25% of cities), always higher in the North than in the rest of the country, and a very reduced use of the WTE plants, with a striking 2.3% in the Central and Southern Italy compared to the 28.3% reached by the Northern communities. Another particular feature of this subsample is the low population density, about 349 inh/km2, and a distance to reach the dumpsite 10 km above the average. Finally, only 10.3% of the residual garbage is burned. Medium size communities, which account for the 58.8% of the data, have between 12,000 and 50,000 residents and both the highest RS and dtd implementation share. In fact, overall, cities in this category recycle 34% of waste and use the domestic collection in 36.6% of cases. The North has the primacy in virtuosity as it reaches 59% of differentiation and almost 50% of dtd collection. About 50% of unsorted waste goes to an incineration plant in the North while landfills are intensively used in the rest of the country. This subsample has the highest presence of social cooperatives (62.3%), trucks drive on average 23 km to reach 1.7 disposal sites. The population density is three times higher than in the small cities wile waste per capita is still below the sample average. Large municipalities, with more than 50,000 residents, comprehend the metropolitan areas of Milan and Rome with 1.3 and 2.7 millions of inhabitants respectively. It might seem a very broad class but cities in this subsample, 12.6% of the total, share very similar features for what concern the variables of interest in this research. Differentiated collection drops to the small ones level while only one fifth of this group uses dtd collection. WTE plants use 22 also decreases to 18.8% as well as the disposal distance (17 km). Cities use two alternative dumpsites. The average municipality of this category has 185,133 residents, a very high population density (1514 inh/km2) and a substantial production of waste per capita, reaching 585 kg. Looking now to Table 4, we can see the different capacity in waste interception of the two alternative systems of collection and the different performances in terms of separate collection. When a municipality introduces door to door collection, the recycling share goes beyond 53.3% compared to the 21% of the street bins collection. This is still below the limit of 65% - set by the law – but notice that in this sample we have cities where the dtd is only at the beginning (therefore sorting is still very low) and communities with more than one decade of experience and very high performances. Moreover, when introducing this method of collection, the North of the country has almost always better results than other regions. Turning our attention to the MSW production, when street bins are present on the public soil, the quantity collected by the municipalities is 18% higher than under the dtd method. As already mentioned, this does not mean that citizens produce suddenly less garbage but many other factors occur. Finally, Table 5 show how the dtd collection and the RS varied from 2004 to 2010 in the 534 cities of this sample. In 2004, only 20% of municipalities used dtd while half of the sample introduced it by 2010. Obviously, the separated collection too is increasing, going from 25.3% in 2004 to 38% in 2010. 5. Estimation procedure In this paper I discuss seven models using cross-section data. The coefficients are obtained from the estimation of seven translog average cost functions, along with their share equations for capital and labour, using Zellner’s SUR estimation method. In order to ensure the cost functions to be linearly homogeneous in input prices, I normalize total cost and input prices by the price of fuel. Moreover, before the estimation, I standardize all the right-hand side variables on their respective sample average values. Below a brief presentation of the models described in the next section. a) Average cost per ton estimation: in order to show continuity with part of the waste literature, Model 1 in Table 6 estimates the average cost per ton of waste, using total quantity of garbage collected as the output. Since the focus of this paper is on both the collection method and the disposal features, I have enriched the very parsimonious models of 23 the previous chapter with many control variables, including among them local factors and service characteristics to better contextualize the environment in which each municipality operates. This model presents an inaccurate impact of the door to door collection because, as already seen, when this system is introduced the quantity of waste collected diminishes while cost are constant or vary for the combination of many other factors. The net effect is a distorted outcome for this method of collection as the quantity of waste is not endogenous. b) Average cost function estimation: the second set of models (from 2 to 4, Table 6) presents an original contribution to the literature, considering the average cost per inhabitant as the dependent variable and estimating the cost function as a system together with the capital and labour price share equations. In order not to introduce discontinuities, model 2 has the same control variables as model 1, but has average cost per inhabitant instead of the average cost per ton on the left hand side of the function while the quantity of waste is now expressed in per capita terms. As it will be clear in a moment, the DTD coefficient changes considerably and allows for a striking interpretation. Model 3 introduces the percentage of incineration (%_INC) and the km made by trucks in order to reach the disposal site (DIST) among explanatory variables while model 2 uses dummy variables for the presence of a dump site in the municipality (MUN_DISP) and for the use of WTE plants (INC). Model 3 is preferred as it uses measures that are more precise. Model 4, which I consider the best choice and will allow further analysis, enriches the previous ones with one more variable, in order to better understand the impact of the collection method costs depending on the level of separate collection reached (RS_DTD). c) Average cost function estimation for dimensional subsamples: for robustness check and in order to contribute to the ongoing debate, I undertake a third set of regressions (Table 7). I compare the results of the selected model, which pools together municipalities of different sizes, with other 3 models (5 to 7), estimating different cost functions for small, medium and big municipalities. Geographical subsamples were also considered but the results are not reported here as there were not big differences in the coefficients. Since the Seventies, thanks to Stevens (1978), the issue of estimating a single model for all the sample, possibly with size dummies, rather than different models for various class sizes is considered. Several previous studies have shown that the estimation should be made for subsamples of municipalities according to population bands, since the differences between large and small municipalities may be relevant (Bel, 2006; Bel & Costas, 2006; Dubin & Navarro, 1988; 24 Stevens, 1978). In this study, as for the method of collection, the estimation of different cost function on dimensional basis it is more relevant than pooling data in a unique sample and the same holds for the disposal characteristics. Comparing the results of the Small, Medium and Big subsamples, interesting results emerge. 6. Results 6.1. Average cost per ton estimation The estimated coefficients in Table 1 are all statistically significant (at a 1% level) but the sign taken by coefficients is in some cases not consistent with expectations. Total cost increases with output and input cost shares, implying that the cost function grows monotonically in input prices. The explanatory power of the model is not very high but remains in line with studies taking average cost per ton as dependent variable. The cost elasticity with respect to output is negative. A 1% increase in collected waste brings, not surprisingly, a decrease in average cost by approximately 0.28%. Keeping total costs fixed, the more we increase output the higher the denominator and the lower average cost per ton. Turning to the characteristics of the service, the DTD coefficient is positive: the introduction of the door-to-door collection method, all the other factors fixed, brings a 5.9% of increase in costs. This might seem obvious because, as already pointed out, this system needs more additional labour. As for disposal, increasing the number of destination for the residual waste above the average value of the sample (1.7) increases cost. This is in line with expectations as usually all municipality have one dumpsite which is closer than others and it seems desirable to dispose garbage as close as possible to the point of production. At the same time, if the entrance fees of the neighbouring landfill or WTE plant are high, one might think it is useful to have more disposal opportunities near the city where waste is collected. N_DEST, indeed, bring a 2% increase in service costs, meaning that transportation costs more than compensate the differences in the entry price between various dumpsites. Related to N_DEST, the DIST variable supports the previous conclusions: the more kilometres trucks travel in order to dispose waste, the more costs grow. Each extra km above the average (25) increases average cost per ton by 0.17%. It might seem a reasonable amount but consider that some municipalities make even 100 km to reach a landfill and this would mean a 17% increase in their costs. Another interesting characteristic is role of the percentage 25 of incineration of each municipality. Overall, cities bring to a WTE plant 21.5% of their unsorted and residual rubbish, with huge differences between regions. Quite unexpectedly, %_INC is negative and accounts for 0.05% of cost variation. The more disposable waste is incinerated, the more municipality save. The alternative way to get rid of undifferentiated waste is to bury it. Therefore, the negative sign in front of the incineration coefficient may be explained by the fact that at the moment, in Italy, WTE plants have more competitive fees compared to landfills. Moreover, this is particularly true for the North of Italy as this macro region it the one who incinerates more, while the rest of the country uses only marginally this way of disposal. Other local factors considered here are the tourism index and the presence of social cooperatives in the province. The impact on the TOUR variable on costs is very low, despite expectations. This could be because the index used here if not an effective measure of the touristic presence on a given territory. The supply in terms of beds/km2 might be very different and not correlated to the number of visitors in the touristic cities. I suppose that owners of accommodation do not vary the beds offer as soon as touristic presence varies unless this new positive or negative variation become stable and confirmed with year passing. Very important, instead, is the impact of SOCIAL_COOP. If in the province where a city is located there are more than three social cooperatives, the average cost per ton of collected, recycled and disposed waste will be lower by 5.5%. This particular form of cooperatives, present in half of the Italian provinces, benefits of a privileged taxation regime because it employs 30% of disadvantaged workforce. The labour cost is, therefore, lower than in other firms (and labour accounts for 43% of the total cost of the service) and they can make lower offers when participating in a tender. The benefit of strengthening their presence on a territory becomes twofold: on the one hand, they provide jobs to people who otherwise would have difficulty in finding one, and on the other one they are excellent competitors and bring about a reduction in the cost of the waste collection service. he NORTH and the CENTER dummy have negative coefficients. A city of the North has a cost which is about 14% lower than the South while the Center part of the country saves 4% with respect to the reference area. On the other hand, the municipalities on the Center Italy spend around 10% more than the Northern ones. For what concerns the dimension of the cities, it can be observed that small and medium municipalities have lower costs that the bigger ones. SMALL dummy is not significant while MEDIUM communities indeed, save 4.5% with respect to the South. Being a small city in the Center allow big cost advantages, especially at high altitudes. Finally, the time dummies’ coefficients tell us that from in 2005 26 and 2006 costs were lower than in 2004, between 5.2% and 7.7%. No significant deviation occurred in 2007 and 2008. Since 2009, conversely, there is a positive variation in contract prices with respect to 2004, which is higher in 2009 (around 11%) than in 2010 (7%). This is a surprising result and it substantially says that cost increased a lot after the beginning of the economic crisis, while the waste produced remained stable. 6.2. Average cost per inhabitant estimation In Table 6, from model 2 to 4, I consider the cost per inhabitant as a dependent variable. Most of the variables considered are significant at 1% level. The explanatory power of the cost function is higher than in model 1 and varies between 0.43% (model 2) and 0.45%, when the interaction RS_DTD is added among the control variables (model 5). This result for R-squared in average cost function is similar to that of Dubin and Navarro (1988) and higher than the one in Ohlsson (2003) and Bel and Costas (2006). The cost elasticity with respect to quantity per capita, which measures the percentage increase in cost due to a 1% increase produced waste, is positive: the Qpc coefficient is around 0.09. Factor prices too have a positive impact on cost. We will now turn our attention to the other explanatory variables. For what concerns the DTD variable, this is found to be negative, just the opposite of the previous estimations, meaning that the introduction of this collection method decreases cost. This result is striking as it seems to reject the fears of service managers that a more demanding system in terms of labour costs will be a burden on the bills of citizens. It is clear from Table 4 that where door to door collection is in use, the recycling share is considerably higher (53.3% compared to 28% on the overall sample). Even though the revenues from the sale of differentiated materials are not incorporated, when recycling collection increases, unsorted garbage is subtracted to landfill or incinerators, so that the reduction observed in costs can be easily explained in terms of lower disposal fees incurred. On the other hand, a more intensive separate collection requires the adoption of more demanding methods, which involve a high use of labour and this reduces the resources that are saved from the nondisposal. Given labour cost, cities who want to increase the RS save more money if the disposal fees are very high with respect to those municipalities that previously paid less for WTE plants and landfills. The net effect of those two forces is the negative coefficient that we observe in Table 6 and this confirms that disposal fees are becoming so high that reducing the undifferentiated waste saves resources. 27 A very interesting result, instead, is presented in model 5. Apparently, when introducing the coefficient of the interaction between recycling share and door-to-door collection (RS_DTD), the cost of door-to-door becomes positive and very high. Now RS_DTD and DTD have to be read and interpreted together. The DTD coefficient tells us the impact of this system if recycling share would not vary. If we change collection method without any benefit in terms of separate collection, a municipality spends as previously in disposal and it has higher costs, both for capital and labour. The new system increases average cost by 10.8%. But if the share of recycling increases, the cost of having a dtd system decreases by 0.32% per each percentage point of differentiation growth. Therefore, if the average municipality in our sample, which has 39,107 inhabitants, passes from 31% of RS to the law requirements, won’t have any change in costs and this result stays valid even without the revenues from recyclables selling. For this extra piece of information model 4 is preferred to all the others. As for disposal characteristics, we notice that the variation of the dependent variable used in the model didn’t change the signs of the associated coefficients. There are, instead, little differences in the magnitude of betas between cost functions. In model 2 and 3 I consider two alternative specifications of disposal features. Model 2 uses MUN_DISP as alterative to the punctual distance to the disposal site. If a city hosts a landfill or a WTE plant, costs decrease by 2.5%. This result is in line with expectations because having a city dumpsite implies having lower transportation costs. In literature, this was argued with the presence of scope economies for the municipality if the same firm or public subject ran both waste collection and disposal. This is not our case because the property of disposal sites is usually different from the company managing the collection. Vertically integrated companies are very rare in Italy and they operate in the North of the country. The DIST variable was preferred to MUN_DISP because it is more accurate and it gives a precise dimension of cost variation with the change in distance. When using both variables in the same estimation, MUN_DISP becomes not significant as all the variation is caught by DIST, which has the same magnitude as in the first model. Again, model 3 presents an alternative specification of the incineration variable as INC indicates the use of a WTE plant for residual waste. The negative coefficient states that using an incinerator (rather than a landfill) lowers costs by 5.4%. As previously, when both variables were used in the same cost function only %_INC was found significant and the dummy was dropped. N_DEST now becomes slightly higher, with an impact of 2% on costs when increasing the number of destinations of undifferentiated garbage. The TOUR 28 coefficient remains very small, the ALT impact is still negative while the social cooperatives in the province, other factors being equal, bring lower savings to citizens as SOCIAL_COOP accounts now by 4%. Also the geographical dummies’ impact decrease consistently: the NORTH coefficient diminishes to 0.028 while the CENTER municipalities show higher fees per inhabitant with respect to the South ones. The size dummies remain significant and indicate differences between the categories considered. For this reasons, in the next paragraph I make separate estimations for the small, medium and big cities in order to check the robustness of these results. While the results shown above are robust across models, except for the collection method, in the next paragraph I concentrate on model 4. 6.3. The role of city size All models presented in the Table 7 show a moderate explanatory power that varies between 30% for the Big subsample to 47% for the Small one and most of the coefficients are significant. For what concerns the main variable of interest of this paper, the door-to-door collection, the impact on average cost per inhabitant of the DTD coefficient changes considerably for municipalities having different dimensions. When municipalities with less than 12,000 inhabitants (model 5) change the collection method, keeping fixed the separate collection, they have a 23.55% increase on average costs, compared to 6.43% in the medium ones (model 6) while large cities, with more than 50,000 residents, have negative variation of costs with the dtd introduction: -12.65% (model 7). We observe the same differences in the RS_DTD coefficient, negative and larger for small communities, becoming then positive in big cities. For less than 50,000 residents, increasing the RS decreases the dtd cost while in the big subsample the opposite occurs. It is interesting to turn our attention at Tables 8a and 8b, which translate the beta coefficients in percentage and per capita changes of cost per inhabitant and allows us to better understand the monetary impact of this collection method. Passing from the average differentiation share of 26% to the 65% level that has to be reached by law, small municipalities have a slight cost reduction of about 1.2€. The same holds for medium and large cities, where a 65% level of differentiation bring even slight savings in costs. Once this level is exceeded, the average cost per inhabitant decreases consistently for small and medium group and rises in big communities. These substantial differences may be easily understood if we think at the different characteristics of those cities. In fact, the small cities have, on average, a very low housing 29 and population density, with 349 inhabitants per km2 and the organization of this method of waste collection it is much easier and straightforward. There are more single-family homes, spread on a bigger territory, with larger streets, less congestion problems. Transportation costs are low, the crew employed in the collection of different materials is more efficient, allowing for the reduction of the downtime. At the same time, if sorting would not vary, the morphology of these cities would result in a higher starting cost for the domestic collection. When population grows and we move to the next dimensional band, density becomes tree times higher. Even though the number of medium municipalities using the door-to-door collection is higher (36%) with respect to small cities (25%), the average cost reduction when introducing this system decreases, indicating more difficulties in organizing the service, quantity per capita being almost the same. Large municipalities, instead, behave very differently. Even without any variation in the RS, the reorganization of the service, which helps in the disappearance of both illegal dumping and waste tourism, brings high savings which account for 19€ for each citizen. The higher the share of differentiated waste, on the other hand, the lower the savings. In fact, our average municipality of this sample, having 185,133 inhabitants and a density of 1,513 inhabitants per km2, is very affected by congestion problems and many other difficulties in organizing the dtd as the high presence of condominiums, a higher area, a higher waste production. Thus, reaching 65% of differentiation would have a null impact on garbage costs while going above that RS has big disadvantages. The disposal characteristics, too, show some variation on a dimensional basis. Small cities, on average, dispose the undifferentiated waste in a lower number of sites (1.5 with respect to 1.7 for medium ones and 2 for big cities) and in fact, for them, costs would rise by 2.1% for every extra destination. Table 19a quantifies in 2.4€/inh the increase in costs for passing from 1.5 to 2.5 destinations. Medium communities have a similar cost variation while the N_DEST variable is negative and not significant for the big subsample suggesting that the higher the alternative sites, the lower the cost for citizens. On the other hand, the distance of a dumpsite becomes a problem in municipalities with more than 50,000 inhabitants as the cost variation is 0.4% per kilometer. Driving 10 more km with respect of the sample average of 17 km, rises average cost by 4.2€/inh. The average distance made by trucks in order to dispose residual garbage rises in smaller municipalities, as it might be seen from Table 3, and the DIST coefficient turns out to be lower for less than 12,000 inhabitants (0.15€/inh/km). The %_INC coefficient has a similar impact on costs in the big and medium subsamples, respectively -0.09 €/inh and -0.08€/inh per each percentage point of incineration 30 increase, while it is higher in small cities. Thus, if we increase the use of WTE plants from the sample average of 10% to 100%, cities up to 12,000 inhabitants would lower costs by 11.7€. 7. Concluding remarks Article 205 of Legislative Decree 152/2006 determines the minimum targets of separate collection that must be guaranteed within each Optimal Territorial Area (ATO). By 2008 all municipalities had to reach 45% of differentiation while by 2012 the level of sorting should have been 65%. Very few areas have complied with the provisions of law, especially in the North of the country. The majority of Italian municipalities tied to close the gap with respect to the most virtuous ones and to implement best practices in order to increase the sorting of municipal waste. The most common method has been the adoption of the door-todoor collection. Although this system has achieved broad diffusion, many mayors fear the transition from the street bins collection to the domestic one because of a possible increase in waste fees and a subsequent loss of electoral support. In this article I wanted to verify if this critique was founded thus I assessed the effective impact of the dtd on the service costs. The second purpose of this research was to evaluate the effect of the various characteristics of disposal. If the fractions collected separately take the path of recycling and become revenues for municipalities, the unsorted garbage or the residuals from recycling must be disposed, therefore the managers have to pay in order to bring rubbish in a landfill or a WTE plant. I here replied to questions as: it is better to burry residual waste or to incinerate it? Given a certain amount of garbage, is there an optimal quantity to be incinerated? Moreover, given that many communities use contemporaneously different dumpsites, which is the ideal number of disposal sites? In order to reply to the previous questions, I estimated several average cost functions with a translogarithmic specification and using the SUR method introduced by Zellner. The dataset is a representative sample of 534 Italian municipalities providing waste disposal and recycling services over a period of seven years, from 2004 to 2010, having a total number of 3,738 pooled observations. For a better estimation of the impact of door-to-door collection, I decided to use the average cost per capita as the dependent variable. On the right hand side of the model, among the service characteristics, I used the collection method, the number of alternative destinations for unsorted rubbish, the km drove by trucks in order to dispose waste and finally the percentage of incineration for each municipality. All these variables represent 31 a huge innovation in formulating the characteristics of the service and they have never been used, especially together, in the revised works. As for the estimation of the impact of the door-to-door collection, I find it is more correct the analysis for dimensional subsamples. The results present striking differences between cities of different sizes. When small and medium municipalities change the collection method, without varying the share of differentiate collection, they have a 23.55% and 6.43% increase on average costs respectively, while large cities, with more than 50,000 residents, benefit from cost savings which account for 19€ for each citizen, even if separate collection is fixed. Thus, in cities with less than 50,000 inhabitants, the starting cost of separate collection is high but decreases quickly if the recycling share increases. In big municipalities, on the other hand, even without the variation of the RS, the reorganization of the collection method and the disappearance of illegal dumping and waste tourism that follows the dtd introduction, bring high advantages in terms of citizens’ fees, but the higher the differentiation, the higher the cost incurred. Passing from the average differentiation share of each subsample to the 65% level that has to be reached by law, brings slight savings in service costs, regardless the size of the city. Once this level is exceeded, average cost per inhabitant reduces consistently for the small and the medium group (allowing savings up to 12€/inh for an 80% level of separate collection) and rises consistently in big communities. Our average big municipality, having 185,133 residents and a density of 1,513 inh/km2, is very affected by congestion problems and many other difficulties in organizing the dtd as the high presence of condominiums, a higher area, and a higher waste production. Thus, reaching 65% of differentiation would have a null impact on garbage fees while going above that RS has big disadvantages in terms of waste tariffs. Even though the revenues from the sale of differentiated materials are not incorporated, when recycling collection increases, unsorted garbage is subtracted to landfill or incinerators therefore the reduction observed in costs for cities with less than 50,000 inhabitants can be explained in terms of lower disposal fees incurred, that more than compensates the rise in labour costs. Keeping fixed the labour cost, cities who want to increase the RS save more money if the disposal fees are very high with respect to those municipalities that previously paid less for WTE plants and landfills. The net effect of those two forces confirms that disposal fees are increasing so much that reducing the undifferentiated waste brigs high benefits in saving resources for small and medium cities 32 while large cities suffer from big difficulties in organizing the dtd collection, no matter the savings reached lowering the quantity disposed. Also for what concerns disposal characteristics we observe interesting variations on a dimensional basis. Small and medium cities have to spend 2.4€/inh for any extra destination with respect to the average, while big communities don’t have a significant difference with the variation of the number of dumpsites. On the other side, the distance becomes a problem in municipalities with more than 50,000 inhabitants, as the cost variation is 0.4% per kilometer. Driving 10 more km with respect of the sample average of 17 km, rises their average cost by 4.2€/inh. For municipalities with a population lower than 50,000 residents, the average distance make by trucks in order to dispose residual garbage can rise as the impact of transportation costs is halved with respect to big ones. Finally, the more disposable waste is incinerated, the more municipalities save, especially if they have less than 12,000 inhabitants, meaning that at the moment, in Italy, WTE plants have more competitive fees compared to landfills. Thus, if we increase the use of WTE plants from the sample average of 10% to 100%, small cities would lower costs by 11.7€. Summarizing, the optimal city uses the door to door system in order to collect waste and to increase recycling, brings the residual rubbish in only one disposal site, which has to be preferably a WTE plant, located as close as possible to the place where garbage is produced. The law requirement of 65% of differentiation do not involve an increase in the service costs and it can be reached by all the municipalities, no matter the size, while higher levels of sorting are affordable only for cities with less than 50,000 inhabitants. If dtd collection is implemented, the starting cost is amortized only if the recycling share increases. Disposal however, has very different features if we consider that in the Northern Italy and Tuscany are concentrated 75.5% of incinerators while in the rest of the country there is a small number of WTE plants, making it necessary the use of landfills. The gap between the North and the South of the country should be filled and policy makers should provide a WTE plant development on a national scale, especially nearby large cities. At the regional level, instead, disposal should be planned in accordance with the European principles of proximity in order to ensure self-sufficiency of disposal sites. This paper makes an important step forward in the waste literature and tries to provide answers to very actual questions. Despite this, there is plenty of room for improvements in the estimation. First, it would be interesting to introduce the revenues from the sale of materials collected separately and from the energy obtained by incinerating waste. Secondly, the characteristics of the service should be better articulated adding information such as 33 frequency of dtd collection, the number of non-domestic users served and the actual presence of tourists in a municipality. Also the years of use of this method of collection would allow to understand the effect of the organizational know-how, acquired with experience. Finally, expressing the average cost per inhabitant presents some biases due to the calculation of the only permanent residents which are not always linearly related to the number of users served by the collection service (eg. touristic flows, non-domestic users, etc.). The parameter €/inh (which consider only residents), in fact, penalizes municipalities with more touristic arrivals and those with many non-domestic users, for whom, however, the municipality provides a service. An improvement of the parameter can be obtained by dividing the total cost by the number of households. 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(1965), “Cost Functions of Urban Government Service Refuse Collection”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 47, 87-92. Ohlsson, H. (2003), “Ownership and Production Costs. Choosing Between Public Production and Contracting-out in the Case of Swedish Refuse Collection”, Fiscal Studies, 24 (4), 451-476. Reeves, E. and Barrow, M. (2000) “The Impact of Contracting-out on the Costs of Refuse Collection Services. The Case of Ireland”, Economic and Social Review, 31 (2), 129150. Stevens, B. J. (1978), “Scale, Market Structure and the Cost of Refuse Collection”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 6 (3), 438-448. 36 Szymanski, S. (1996), “The Impact of Compulsory Competitive Tendering on Refuse Collection Services”, Fiscal Studies, 17 (3), 1–19. Szymanski, S. and Wilkins, S. (1993), “Cheap Rubbish? Competitive Tendering and Contracting Out in Refuse Collection 1981–1988”, Fiscal Studies, 14 (3), 109–130. Zellner, A. (1962), “An Efficient Method of Estimating Seemingly Unrelated Regression and Test for Aggregation Bias”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 58, 348-368. Websites https://aida.bdvinfo.com www.isprambiente.gov.it www.istat.it http://www.mudcomuni.it Abbreviations DTD = door to door collection; ISTAT = National Institute of Statistics; MSW = Municipal Solid Waste; MUD = Modello Unico di Dichiarazione Ambientale (annual declaration concerning the MSW collection); RS = Recycling Share; WTE = Waste to Energy plant. 37 Tables and Figures Table 1: Variables description and sources Variable Unit Log or level Description Source Cost TC € Log AC/t €/ton Log Total gross cost of waste collected and disposed. Includes both not differentiated waste costs (sweeping, cleaning, collection and transportation, treatment and disposal) and recyclables costs (collection, treatment and preparation for recycling). Average cost of waste collected and disposed per ton. AC/inh €/inh Log Average cost of waste collected and disposed per inhabitant. MUD YR Tons Log MUD YD Tons Log Qpc Kg Log Differentiated waste collected in order to be sent to recycling. Unsorted and residual waste sent to disposal (landfill or WTE). Total waste collected in the municipality. Pl € Log Average wage. AIDA Pk € Log Average capital price. AIDA Pf € Log Average fuel price. Chambers of commerce Alt Meters Log Municipality altitude above the sea level. ISTAT Tour Beds/km2 Level The offer of accommodation facilities of the municipality (hotels, camps, villages, hostels, holiday homes, B&B). Observatory of Tourism Social_coop Dummy Level Dummy variable: 1= more than 3 social cooperatives in the province; =0 otherwise. LegaCoop North Dummy Level Center Dummy Level Dummy variable: 1= northern area municipality; =0 otherwise. Dummy variable: 1= central area municipality; =0 otherwise. Small Dummy Level Dummy variable: 1= below 12000 inhabitats; =0 otherwise. Medium Dummy Level Dummy variable: 1= 12000 <inhabitants<50000; =0 otherwise. MUD MUD Quantity MUD MUD Factor prices Local factors ISTAT ISTAT Collection method Dtd Dummy Rs_dtd Level Dummy variable: 1= door to door collection method; =0 street bins. Interaction between dtd collection and recycling share. Level Mixed Mixed Disposal characteristics Inc Dummy Level Dummy variable: 1= waste incinerated; =0 landfill disposal. MUD %_inc Percentage Level Percentage of waste sent to WTE plants MUD N_dest Number Level Number of final disposal destinations for each municipality MUD Mun_disp Dummy Level Dummy variable: 1= municipality disposal; =0 outside. MUD Dist Km Level Distance made by trucks in order to reach the disposal site, MUD/ 38 weighted by the quantity disposed Google Maps Table 2: Summary statistics Variable name Mean Std. Dev Min Max Total Cost (thousands) 5787.61 27300.00 65.63 659000.00 16251.11 6208.44 71618.54 19795.26 225.29 0.00 1497029.00 394446.20 0.10 37209.34 0.02 6011.46 0.02 19200.00 0.17 62613.00 0.06 0.43 0.04 0.13 0.00 0.08 0.18 0.73 39106.99 183.60 85.03 900.79 30.90 25.34 21.51 1.70 40.58 139611.70 176.97 248.09 1226.95 21.31 26.89 39.92 1.25 222.41 1042.00 0.00 248.09 2.34 0.00 2.26 0.00 1.00 0.00 2711491.00 1154.00 5325.00 9441.50 88.95 274.00 100.00 16.00 4763.91 Output Waste disposed (tons): YD Waste recycled (tons): YR Input prices Capital: PK Labour (euro): PL Cost shares Capital (%) Labour (%) Other variables Population Altitude Area (Km2) Density (inh/km2) Recycling Share (%) Distance to disposal site (Km) Incineration (%) N° of disposal sites Tourism index (beds/km2) 39 Table 3a: Sample breakdown by dimensional subsamples and area Municipality dimension Small Medium Big N C/S Tot N C/S Tot N C/S Tot 47 106 153 160 154 314 27 40 67 43.9% 18.0% 26.1% 49.6% 18.1% 33.9% 40.0% 20.1% 27.8% 40.5% 18.0% 25.0% 59.0% 13.3% 36.6% 32.3% 11.4% 19.7% 28.3% 2.3% 10.3% 48.2% 6.0% 27.5% 35.4% 7.8% 18.8% 23.6 39.0 34.3 19.2 26.6 22.8 11.0 20.6 16.8 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.9 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.1 Area N. of municipalities Recycling Share Dtd collection Incineration Disposal (km) N° of disposal sites Table 3b: Sample breakdown by dimensional subsamples Municipality dimension N. of municipalities Inhabitants Surface Density (inh/km2) Waste per capita (kg) Social cooperatives Small Medium Big <12,000 inh 153 8348 50 349 514 40.5% 12,000-50,000 inh 314 23116 83 1038 529 62.3% >50,000 inh 67 185133 175 1514 585 49.8% Table 4: Variation of RS and waste per capita with door-to-door collection Recycling Share Waste/per capita (kg) Collection method Small Medium Big Tot Small Medium Big Tot Door-to-door Street bins 53.0% 17.1% 54.5% 22.0% 43.5% 24.0% 53.3% 20.8% 407 550 473 561 545 595 464 562 Table 5: Variation in differentiate collection and dtd collection from2004 to 2010 Year RS DTD 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 25.3% 26.5% 27.4% 30.0% 33.2% 36.0% 38.0% 20.2% 22.5% 25.1% 29.6% 34.5% 39.9% 47.4% 40 Table 6: Translog estimation of Average Cost Functions 1 2 3 4 AC per ton AC per inhabitant AC per inhabitant AC per inhabitant All sample All sample All sample All sample Model n. Regressors Estimates SE Estimates SE Estimates SE Estimates SE Constant -0.7880*** 0.103 -0.6598*** 0.103 -0.5723*** 0.030 -0.6598*** 0.103 dtd 0.0573*** 0.011 -0.0616*** 0.010 -0.0638*** 0.010 0.1022*** 0.027 rs_dtd - - - - - - -0.0032*** 0.001 mun_disp - - - - -0.0250** 0.013 - - inc - - - - -0.0527*** 0.011 - - n_dest 0.0199*** 0.003 0.0200*** 0.003 0.0253*** 0.003 0.0191*** 0.003 %_inc -0.0005*** 0.000 -0.0006*** 0.000 - - -0.0005*** 0.000 dist 0.0017*** 0.000 0.0017*** 0.000 - - 0.0017*** 0.000 tour 0.0002*** 0.000 0.0003*** 0.000 0.0003*** 0.000 0.0003*** 0.000 social_coop -0.0532*** 0.008 -0.0440*** 0.008 -0.0456*** 0.008 -0.0400*** 0.008 -0.0057* 0.003 -0.0383*** 0.003 -0.0386*** 0.003 -0.0389*** 0.003 lnpop 0.0863*** 0.009 0.0850*** 0.009 0.0810*** 0.009 0.0825*** 0.009 north -0.1308*** 0.011 -0.0426*** 0.011 -0.0597*** 0.011 -0.0282*** 0.011 center -0.0378*** 0.011 0.0547*** 0.011 0.0429*** 0.011 0.0542*** 0.011 small -0.0162 0.024 -0.0802*** 0.024 -0.0726*** 0.027 -0.0800*** 0.024 medium -0.0447** 0.018 -0.0676*** 0.018 -0.0702*** 0.019 -0.0656*** 0.018 y_2005 -0.0507*** 0.014 -0.0393*** 0.014 -0.0358** 0.015 -0.0374*** 0.014 y_2006 -0.0747*** 0.014 -0.0503*** 0.015 -0.0463*** 0.015 -0.0488*** 0.015 y_2007 -0.0446 0.014 -0.0114 0.015 -0.0034 0.015 -0.0105 0.015 y_2008 -0.0657 0.014 -0.0220 0.015 -0.0177 0.015 -0.0202*** 0.015 y_2009 0.1039*** 0.014 0.1506*** 0.015 0.1554*** 0.015 0.1534*** 0.015 y_2010 0.0677*** 0.014 0.1310*** 0.015 0.1369*** 0.015 0.1333*** 0.015 lnQpc/tot -0.2832*** 0.018 0.0896*** 0.004 0.0901*** 0.004 0.0860*** 0.004 lnQpc2 lnPL 0.1430** 0.057 0.2563** 0.059 0.27354*** 0.060 0.2684** 0.059 0.4278*** 0.002 0.4283*** 0.002 0.4280*** 0.002 0.4281*** 0.002 lnPK 0.0593*** 0.001 0.0591*** 0.001 0.0590*** 0.001 0.0591*** 0.001 lnPL2 -0.1956*** 0.010 -0.1896*** 0.010 -0.1886*** 0.010 -0.1896*** 0.010 lnPK2 0.0163*** 0.002 0.0180*** 0.005 0.0178*** 0.005 0.0180*** 0.005 lnPLlnPK 0.0444*** 0.003 0.0286*** 0.005 0.0283*** 0.005 0.0291*** 0.005 lnQpclnPL -0.0492*** 0.007 -0.0576* 0.007 -0.0591*** 0.007 -0.0581*** 0.007 lnQpclnPK 0.0230*** 0.002 0.0968*** 0.054 0.0534 0.055 0.1065** 0.054 lnalt Obs 3738 3738 3738 3738 R2 0.31 0.43 0.43 0.45 *** Significant at 1% level in a two tailed test. ** Significant at 5 percent level. *Significant at 10 % level. All regressors are normalized on their sample mean values. 41 Table 7: Translog estimates of Model 4 for dimensional subsamples 5 6 7 Small Medium Big Model n. Regressors Estimates SE Estimates SE Estimates SE -0.3083 0.215 -1.0111*** 0.131 -0.2323 0.155 dtd 0.2167*** 0.054 0.0650* 0.054 -0.1392** 0.063 rs_dtd -0.0065*** 0.001 -0.0029*** 0.001 0.0035*** 0.001 n_dest 0.0210** 0.010 0.0210*** 0.004 -0.0024 0.010 %_inc -0.0012*** 0.000 -0.0007*** 0.000 -0.0006** 0.000 dist 0.0013*** 0.000 0.0018*** 0.000 0.0040*** 0.000 tour 0.0001*** 0.000 0.0001*** 0.000 0.0009*** 0.000 -0.0237 0.018 -0.0543*** 0.010 0.0958*** 0.020 lnalt -0.0847** 0.007 -0.0254*** 0.004 -0.0130** 0.006 lnpop 0.0680*** 0.023 0.1095*** 0.013 0.0131 0.013 y_2005 -0.0145 0.030 -0.0411** 0.018 -0.0457 0.033 y_2006 -0.0330 0.030 -0.0516*** 0.018 -0.0496 0.033 y_2007 0.0220 0.031 -0.0211 0.018 -0.0091 0.033 y_2008 0.0225 0.031 -0.0322* 0.018 -0.0166 0.034 y_2009 0.2272*** 0.031 0.1341*** 0.018 0.1058*** 0.034 y_2010 0.2053*** 0.031 0.1182*** 0.018 0.1061*** 0.034 lnQpc 0.0769*** 0.007 0.0735*** 0.005 0.0800*** 0.012 lnQpc2 0.5344*** 0.109 0.5962*** 0.080 -1.5900*** 0.442 lnPL 0.4475*** 0.004 0.4200*** 0.003 0.4213*** 0.005 lnPK 0.0550*** 0.003 0.0600*** 0.001 0.0643*** 0.002 lnPL2 -0.2064*** 0.018 -0.1683*** 0.013 -0.2395*** 0.027 Constant social_coop lnPK2 0.0160 0.012 0.0213*** 0.005 -0.0043 0.008 lnPLlnPK 0.0369*** 0.011 0.0197*** 0.005 0.0777*** 0.010 lnQpclnPL -0.0330*** 0.010 -0.0682*** 0.010 -0.1039*** 0.030 lnQpclnPK -0.1133 0.101 -0.2532*** 0.101 -0.3553 0.233 Obs 1071 2198 469 R2 0.47 0.40 0.30 42 Table 8a: Percentage variation in costs with door-to-door collection Recycling share 26% 28% 30% 34% 40% 50% 60% 65% 70% 80% 90% Small Medium Big 23.55 - -12.65 21.61 -12.30 6.43 - 14.48 4.98 -8.80 8.65 2.09 -5.30 2.17 -50.46 -1.80 -1.08 -2.24 -0.04 -4.32 -3.69 1.71 -10.80 -6.58 5.21 -17.28 -9.47 8.71 Table 8b: Variation in average cost per inhabitant with door-to-door collection (euro) Recycling share 26% 28% 30% 34% 40% 50% 60% 65% 70% 80% 90% Small Medium Big €26.4 - -€19.1 €24.2 -€18.6 €7.5 - €16.2 €5.8 -€13.3 €9.7 €2.5 -€8.0 €2.4 -€59.1 -€2.7 -€1.2 -€2.6 -€0.1 -€4.8 -€4.3 €2.6 -€12.1 -€7.7 €7.9 -€19.3 -€11.1 € 13.2 Table 9a: Results disposal small municipalities Variable Waste to energy share (%) Distance to disposal site (km) Number of disposal destinations β % Variation €/inh/year -0.0012 0.0013 0.021 -0.12 0.13 2.12 -0.13 0.15 2.38 β % Variation €/inh/year -0.0007 0.0018 0.021 -0.07 0.18 2.12 -0.08 0.21 2.49 β % Variation €/inh/year -0.0006 0.0028 -0.0024 -0.06 0.28 -0.24 -0.09 0.42 -0.36 Table 9b: Results disposal medium municipalities Variable Waste to energy share (%) Distance to disposal site (km) Number of disposal destinations Table 9c: Results disposal big municipalities Variable Waste to energy share (%) Distance to disposal site (km) Number of disposal destinations 43 44
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