DEMOGRAPHIC
TRANSITION
PROFESSOR RODDY FOX
[email protected]
[email protected]
1
BIRTH RATES AND DEATH RATES
2011
CRUDE BIRTH
RATE (/000)
CRUDE DEATH
RATE (/000)
UGANDA
47.38
11.54
BOTSWANA
22.02
12
SOUTH AFRICA
19.23
17.23 #
SWEDEN
10.24
10.21
#
HIGHEST IN THE WORLD IN 2011
Source: CIA World Factbook
BIRTH RATES AND DEATH RATES
2011
UGANDA
50
40
Birth and Death 30
Rates (/000)
20
10
0
BOTSWANA
SOUTH AFRICA
SWEDEN
Example of a country in Stage 4
Demographic Transition Model
•
•
Life Expectancy in Sweden 2004 (CBR and CDR approx. 10)
•
At birth: 78.35 (male), 82.68 (female)
•
At age 50: 30.19 (male), 33.92 (female)
•
At age 65: 17.39 (male), 20.56 (female)
Life expectancy in Sweden 1751-1790 (CBR and CDR approx.
30)
•
At birth: 33.72 (male), 36.64 (female)
•
At age 50: 18.16 (male), 19.59 (female)
•
At age 65: 10.02 (male), 10.51 (female)
DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL FOR
INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES
SWEDEN
•
Key authors: American Demographers, Warren S. Thompson
1929, Frank W. Notestein and Kingsley Davis 1945.
•
Application and development after 1945 by Notestein and
Davis’s colleagues ‘the Princeton School’.
•
Generalized model based on the idea of a sequence of stages
through which society passes.
Simon Stretzer. 1993. The Idea of Demographic Transition and the Study of Fertility Change.
Population and Development Review 19(4): 659-701
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE IN SWEDEN
10.2 in 2011
SWEDEN
•
Early Period: 1750 1.5 million people, a typical agricultural
society, hierarchical, no family planning, short life expectancy
with regular epidemics of infectious diseases (eg smallpox) and
periodic famines.
•
Transition to Stage 2 1750-1850: life expectancy increased (c40
years at birth) population doubled to 3.5 million.
•
Stage 3 after 1850: medical improvements (eg vaccines) and
sanitation improvements, population growth placed great
pressure on the agricultural systems: emigration mostly to the
USA (20% of the total population).
•
By 1930 fertility rates had dropped, life expectancy improved,
marked contrasts between low and high income families (IMR
49/000 and 14/000), start of social security system 1930-1940.
6.4 million people by 1940.
•
Stage 4: Decreasing population growth rates, immigration
leading to population reaching 8.3 million in 1985. Fertility rates
at sub replacement (1.55 in 1985). 1982 government survey:
why do women have such small families?
improvements in food supply, public health
In rural areas, child survival improves,
Urbanization affects values, female literacy and employment
Fertility declines, population falls below replacement, elderly
•
Criticized theoretically: how can it apply to countries which are
not or cannot be industrializing?
•
Compare, for example, Sweden with Mauritius.
Different processes at different
speeds
•
University of Michigan’s Global Change Curriculum argues that there have
been a Past and a Present Transition: http://www.globalchange.umich.edu/
globalchange2/current/lectures/pop_socio/pop_socio.html#intro
•
Have there been two transitions, are post-industrial societies in
their second transition?
•
Technological advances and changes in the market have altered
the costs and rewards of marriage and having children.
•
Increased economic certainty and social changes lead to
greater opportunities for women in the economy.
•
Increased affluence leads to a focus on independent
development and realization of your own goals.
•
Post-industrial western cultures strongly promote the
importance of self-expression and secular-rational values.
Post industrial
western cultures
+
0.65
JPN
0.60
Secular-Rational Values
0.55
0.50
MON
0.35
0.30
0.20
0.15
BLR
CZE
BUL
ISR
LTH
SER
BOS
FIN
GRC
CRO
SLO
FRA
0.20
_
0.25
0.30
0.35
LXM
AUT
URU
0.40
0.45
0.50
Self-Expression Values
SWI
NTH
ICE
BEL
UKR
SLV
RUS HUN
CYP
ALB
MAC
KYR
ARM
ARG ESP
r = .50***
ITL
MOL
SIN
ALG INDO
CHI DOM
VTN
AZR
ROM
SAU
MEX
IND
IRE
GEO
POR BRZ
TUR
SAF
PHI
1 SD
POL
GUA
VEN
EGP
COL
ELS
BAN
PER
MAL
JRD UGA
PAK
MOR
TNZ
NIG
ZMB
0.10
0.15
GER (W.)
DEN
EST
LTV
0.40
GER (E.)
NOR
CHN
0.45
0.25
_
SKR
SWE
HNK
NWZ
GB
AUS
CAN
USA
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.70
+