Research Policy 31 (2002) 509–526 Science dependence of technologies: evidence from inventions and their inventors Robert J.W. Tijssen Centre for Science and Technology Studies (CWTS), Leiden University, P.O. Box 9555, 2300 RB Leiden, The Netherlands Received 26 November 2000; received in revised form 14 December 2000; accepted 19 March 2001 Abstract Articulating a compelling economic rationale to justify investments in research—by definition furthest removed from direct, immediate economic benefit—is perhaps one of chief challenges of R&D managers, policy makers and science analysts in the years ahead. Although several innovation studies and surveys have provided some convincing empirical evidence of impacts and benefits of research to technical progress, there is still an urgent need for comprehensive models, reliable data and analytical tools to describe and monitor links between R&D and industrial innovation in more detail. As for the role of scientific and engineering research in the innovation process, this paper reports on the findings of a novel methodology to increase our understanding of the contribution of research efforts to successful technical inventions. The approach is based on a nation-wide mail survey amongst inventors working in the corporate sector and the public research sector in The Netherlands. The inventors’ inside information regarding their patented inventions—and related technological innovations on the market—provided a range of quantitative data on the importance of the underpinning research activities. Statistical models attempting to explain the degree of “science dependence” of the inventions identify a range of relevant variables, covering the inventor’s own capabilities and previous R&D achievements, external information sources, as well as the inventor’s R&D environment in general. Some 20% of the private sector innovations turned out to be (partially) based on public sector research. Furthermore, citations in patents referring to basic research literature were found to be invalid indictors of a technology’s science dependence. © 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. Keywords: Science base of industrial innovation; Patents; Patent citations; Inventors 1. Introduction Newly emerging R&D-intensive industrial sectors will increasingly be built on a combination of leading-edge scientific knowledge and sophisticated technical know-how. The scientific and engineering research that we conduct today will have an impact on the economic success of corporations and countries in 5, 10, and even 15 years into the future. However, despite living in such an increasingly knowledge-based E-mail address: [email protected] (R.J.W. Tijssen). society, the processes by which scientific and technical knowledge drive industrial competitiveness and economic impact remain one of the most difficult areas to assess and understand. Little is known about the quantitative impact of research activities and outputs on industrial innovations. This lack of detailed understanding not only undermines the economic rationale for public and private investments in research—especially the expenditure for risky exploratory academic research with long-term objectives and uncertain payoffs—but also the public confidence in the societal benefits and rates of returns of academic research. 0048-7333/02/$ – see front matter © 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. PII: S 0 0 4 8 - 7 3 3 3 ( 0 1 ) 0 0 1 2 4 - X 510 R.J.W. Tijssen / Research Policy 31 (2002) 509–526 Usually, it is taken for granted that in-house corporate research—basic research included (Rosenberg, 1990)—is a decisive factor in technical change and innovative industrial applications. Less agreement is found as to the relative contribution of universities, public research institutes and government laboratories as a source of knowledge, discoveries and technical problem solving. Contributions from external research (academic or otherwise) are often considered far more questionable. One of the reasons is the multivaried way in which the results of scientific research come to us. Few scientific breakthroughs do find immediate applications and the yields on basic research are typically realised far into the future. Frequently, the greatest benefits are the least anticipated and surface many years later. Clearly, scores of technological advances have their origins in basic or applied scientific research, in many cases based on research efforts that could indeed not have been predicted to have those outcomes. Only a few of the ‘science dependent’ technologies reach the stage of full maturity and become adopted technological innovations that are applied in more efficient manufacturing processes or introduced into the marketplace embodied in new or improved products. The surge of science-dependent technologies that conquered the market over the past 30 years have resulted in large numbers of new commercial enterprises that now constitute a major fraction of the global economy. Lasers, semiconductors, fibre optics, mobile phones, medical imaging, and biotechnology all have resulted from fundamental discoveries from basic research. Many examples exist of outcomes of government-funded research labs that are (eventually) further developed into new inventions and technologies, the Internet being the latest high-profile example. The role and contribution of public science to technological innovation has been a major concern of S&T policy since the late 1960s when retrospective studies such as TRACES (Illinois Institute of Technology Research Institute, 1969; Batelle Columbus Laboratory, 1973) and project hindsight (Sherwin and Isenson, 1967) were carried out in the US. Subsequent studies in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s focused on scientific and technical knowledge used in the course of the innovation processes in companies, attempting to identify, categorise and quantify the contributions of the main institutional sources of ideas, instrumentation and technical inputs (e.g. Gibbons and Johnston, 1974; Jaffe, 1988; Brooks, 1994; Mansfield, 1995). The findings share the conclusion that absorption and utilisation of new knowledge into new artefacts and industrial innovations is an extremely complex social process involving a range of corporate sources and external knowledge and skills where most relationships and two-way interactions between research and technological development are neither direct nor obvious. The EU’s Community Innovation Surveys (CIS) conducted in the 1990s have provided comparable numerical data on the role of research as an information source at the aggregate level of entire industrial sectors and countries. Some R&D-intensive sectors were found to be distinctly science-based, others depend mainly on engineering research and technical development. The results of the PACE survey by Arundel et al. (1995) amongst large European firms show that public sector research is only slightly less important than other external sources of knowledge. But again there are significant sectoral differences, varying between sectors such as plastics and fabricate metals where only 15% of the respondents cases find public research very important, to R&D-intensive sectors such as pharmaceuticals and aerospace with scores of 30% or more. Clearly, significant progress has been made in determining the extent to which technical development within private businesses benefits from various knowledge inputs, including publicly-funded research. Obtaining comparative measurements on how many technological innovations were actually made possible by industrial R&D or external research is still an entirely different matter. Here the old cliché certainly holds true, what is easy to measure is hard to correlate and what is easy to correlate is hard to measure. So far, only Mansfield (1991, 1998) and Beise and Stahl (1999) have tackled this difficult question. They asked R&D executives and support staffs of a large number of companies about the share of product and process innovations that would have not been developed (without substantial delay) in the absence of public research. However, the actual contribution of research to technical inventions and associated innovations is still largely unresolved. Which factors are determining R.J.W. Tijssen / Research Policy 31 (2002) 509–526 this knowledge creation and transfer process? Are there indeed significant cross-sectoral differences in “science dependency” of inventions and innovations, i.e. the extent to which in-house or external scientific and engineering research is perceived as a significant contribution to the development of inventions and innovations? To what extent is an organisation’s internal R&D environment indicative of that science dependency? How important is the individual “knowledge-base” of R&D personnel working on technical inventions? This paper sets out to address these fundamental questions concerning the research-related inputs of technical inventions based on empirical data gathered at the working bench level of inventors and their patents, in particular the research base of patented technical inventions. Clearly, all technical inventions are based to some extent on research, in the least on (applied) engineering research of some sort, but sometimes also on inputs from scientific and engineering research of a more fundamental nature. The inventors were queried specifically about the role of scientific research in the development of those patents. The study covers patented technologies developed in the private sector as well as in the public sector, including technical inventions that have already reached the stage of technological innovations. An explanatory model of science dependency is developed, incorporating both structural and individual factors. Furthermore, new empirical data is supplied dealing with the critical analytical issue whether or not the references on patents to the research literature are indeed valid indicators of a patent’s science dependence. The next sections of this paper report on the methodology and present the main findings. The final section discusses methodological and policy implications of this approach. 511 comparable analysis units suitable for a systematic investigation through comparative analysis of cross-case findings. The dominant approach is that of reporting by R&D management at industrial enterprises via a comprehensive postal questionnaire. The mail survey methodology is relatively cheap and produces representative volumes of quantifiable information enabling statistical analysis and quantitative indicators. Patents provide an alternative approach to help shine a light inside this black box. They are concrete evidence of technical progress and constitute identifiable and measurable units of inventiveness. 1 Patents are considered important intermediate outcomes of innovation-driven R&D processes in many technology-intensive manufacturing sectors and across a range of R&D performing organisations in both the public and private sector. These public documents provide a large body of information and adequate quantities of comparable units suitable for detailed statistical analysis. Patent data also have their share of inherent weaknesses for studying technological developments: not all innovations are patented (e.g. Arundel and Kabla, 1998), nor are patents equivalent to innovations. 2 Basically, inventions and patents represent the brilliant ideas; innovations get those ideas out into the market. Moreover, many patented inventions are never fully developed or adjusted to market requirements. The knowledge codified and protected in a single broad “generic” patent may be used in several innovations, whereas a complex technical system may cover a range of interrelated and incremental patents. In addition, a single R&D project or trajectory may result in several interrelated patents covering a spectrum of interrelated strategic and commercial objectives. For the sake of analytical simplicity, we henceforth assume that each patent defines a valuable intermediate concrete outcome of a specific R&D trajectory where the (tacit) knowledge embodied in the patented invention can be 2. Method and information sources 2.1. Data collection Only a look inside the “black box” of R&D trajectories enables further identification of factors contributing to successful inventions and innovation processes. However, traditional case studies are too specific and fail to provide an adequate quantity of 1 Inventions are defined as “any patentable product, process, machine, manufacture or composition of matter, or any new and useful improvement of any of these, such as new uses of known compounds”. 2 Industrial patenting is obviously only one way of seeking to ensure firms’ ability to appropriate returns to innovation and patenting decisions thus reflect, in part, corporate IPR strategies and tactical considerations which can be defensive or forward-looking, or can lay the groundwork for cross-licensing arrangements. 512 R.J.W. Tijssen / Research Policy 31 (2002) 509–526 developed and used for various further applications and technological innovations. The inventors listed on patents are the key information source on the history of the R&D process related to the technical invention. By using recent patents and addressing their key inventors one can directly tap into inside information at the project level relevant to the (sometimes, still on-going) R&D processes aimed at developing industrial innovations. Furthermore, their views and detailed empirical data of lab bench activities, interactions and knowledge flows are unknown to R&D management who usually tend to deal with external questionnaires concerning innovation activities and outcomes (e.g. Jaffe et al., 2000). As such, this particular patent and invention-oriented methodology fits into the “object approach” within innovation studies were (quantitative) data is collected directly at the level of individual inventions and innovations through more detailed and tailored surveys and/or using expert opinion (e.g. Palmberg et al., 1999). 3 This analytical approach enables a more exact comparison of the different types of inventions and innovations, their scientific and technical origins and development trajectories. Obtaining detailed data on the inventions and innovation is of course context sensitive and usually of commercial or strategic value. So non-response can become quite a problem. For example, a recent US survey dealing directly with inventors barely achieved a 20% response rate (Erickson, 1999). Moreover, the response can be subject to positive or negative biases reflecting the respondents’ appreciation of the resources and underpinning R&D as well as views on the impact and value of the patent. To address these potential drawbacks, the inventors were guaranteed absolute confidentiality and were notified in advance that findings of the survey would be disseminated only in aggregate form at the level of main institutional categories corresponding to the 3 In contrast, the “subject approach” deals with the various aspects of innovation activity at the institutional level by identifying innovating firms and institutions and using large-scale mail surveys to gather data. Typically, these surveys—such as CIS—tend to use indirect proxies for the measurement of technical innovation, such as patents and R&D expenditure. The most advanced and thorough methodologies for quantitative innovation studies are now combining the object and subject approach (e.g. Palmberg et al., 1999). inventors’ affiliations. 4 There were no prior contacts with the inventors, patent attorneys or examiners, and/or the firms and institutions that were granted the patents. This patent-inventor survey methodology has two key strengths compared to the traditional innovation surveys like CIS: (1) in-depth data on processes, outputs and outcomes; (2) data on invention-related research at universities and other public research institutes. The downside of using to patented innovations is of course the limited scope for analysis and comparison which is restricted to industrial sectors and organisations where patenting is used as a means for protection of intellectual property. Patent-based innovation indicators therefore tend to over-emphasise the technologies developed within the larger firms active in high-tech industries such as pharmaceutics, chemistry, electronics and instrumentation. They are less appropriate for measuring research-related technical progress within SMEs and in sectors such as aerospace or information technology (especially software development) that rely on other means such as secrecy or lead times to secure competitive advantages. 2.2. Patent sampling and questionnaire A stratified sample was drawn from all Dutchinvented patents on technical inventions (“utility patents”) filed through international patent offices in 1998 or 1999, either applied for (EPO, PCT) or granted (USPTO) in 1998 or 1999. Each of these patents lists at least one inventor based in The Netherlands. Some of these patents are held by foreign assignees at the time of application. Structuring the survey requires an adequate sampling procedure that guarantees representative sub-samples. In view of the dominance of 4 Confidentiality pledges may often have perverse effects which cannot be assumed to be related to either increasing or decreasing sample size. However, in this small-scale low-profile academic exploratory study there are no obvious personal, commercial or strategic reasons, or (conflicts of) interests related to either the subject matter, research topics, or the survey methodology, which are likely to trigger inventors into deliberately misleading responses or biased views of the actual events and determinants related to the science base of the patent. A series of 12 follow-up interviews with a sample of respondents provided no evidence of such response biases. R.J.W. Tijssen / Research Policy 31 (2002) 509–526 some large multinational corporations in the population of Dutch-invented patents (Philips alone accounts for some 40%), the patents and associated applicants and assignees were not chosen at random to generate a statistically representative sample of the total population. Rather, a stratified sampling basis was designed to include a sufficiently wide range of main R&D-organisations and institutional sectors involved in patenting in The Netherlands. The sample includes a wide variety of main technical areas, including all R&D-intensive industries (pharmaceutics, chemistry and materials, instruments, electronics). It also contains equal shares of the three main institutional categories of R&D performing organisations (i.e. large multinational enterprises, other private businesses, and the public sector). In addition each of the above sub-samples contain approximately 50% patents that include at least one reference to research paper in their list of relevant documents describing the contents and background of the invention (see Section 2.3). The latter sampling criterion ensures a sufficiently large sample of patents to explore the statistical relationship between the presence of these citations on patents and the science dependence of the corresponding invention (see Section 3.4). The questionnaire was mailed directly to the scientists, engineers, analysts and technicians that were listed as (co)inventor of the patent, in most cases the “primary inventor” first on the list of inventors in the patent application. 5 Each inventor was asked to complete a six page standardised questionnaire consisting mostly of semi-structured questions with minimal use of prompts for open-ended questions. The questionnaire covers a range of questions dealing mostly with key aspects of the underpinning R&D, the R&D environment of the inventor, and the current development phase and commercial value of the patented inventions. The inventors were queried specifically about the extent to which “recent scientific 5 The mail survey was sent to the person highest on the list of inventors that could be tracked down and presumably able to read a questionnaire written in Dutch. In five cases, the questionnaire was sent to either the second or third inventor. The first inventor is not necessarily the chief inventor or the person most knowledgeable about the specifics of the invention and its development. In fact, in two cases, the addressee forwarded the questionnaire to another co-inventor. 513 research” 6 played a significant role in the development of the selected invention. 2.3. Patent citation data Patent applicants and patent examiners are obliged to cite relevant “prior art” that contributes materially to the device, substance, product or process to be patented or upon which it improves. Given the accumulate development of technologies, most of these citations refer to other patents. The patent examiner-given selection of the key citations is listed on a patent’s front page (“data sheet”) or search report. However, a significant share of the bibliographic information on patents contains non-patent literature citations (NPCs) to scientific and technical publications. These citations provide some indication of the potential contributions of published research results to patentable inventions. In this study, the NPCs are used that were listed on patents granted by the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO). US patent law requires the USPTO patent examiners to establish the novelty and uniqueness of an invention claimed by the patent application. References to other patents and non-patent literature are added to restrict or substantiate each claim, or to describe the invention’s scientific and technical background. Patents containing more than an average number of references are often more complex and tend to cover more legal claims and possible commercial applications. The examiner searches for all related publicly available documents that are relevant to the invention but not to bar the patent from being granted. Patent applicants are subject to “duty of disclosure”, which obliges them to inform USPTO, as long as the application is under examination, of any relevant documents known to him which (might) have a bearing on the patent claims. This legal requirement, and the fact that in the late 1980s, USPTO has become more 6 The questionnaire contained the following definition of “recent scientific research”: “all exploratory, strategic and/or applied scientific research—and directly related engineering research— that was carried out at the earliest 10 years prior to the patent application”. This broad definition was used in order to include all obvious types of scientific research which allows for various (firm- or field-dependent) definitions—some perhaps idiosyncratic views—amongst inventors about what scientific research actually constitutes. 514 R.J.W. Tijssen / Research Policy 31 (2002) 509–526 rigorous in enforcing disclosure of prior art, are considered the main reasons why USPTO patents tend to contain an order of magnitude more NPCs than comparable EPO/PCT patents (see e.g. Michel and Bettels, 2001). The latter patents are not bound to duty of disclosure and tend to deal with a smaller number of “umbrella” claims per patent focusing on the examination of the most relevant technical information thus producing a far less NPCs. As in other large-scale NPC studies, the analysis will deal with the examiner-given ‘front page’ references NPCs only, primarily because the applicant/ inventor-given references are not available in a machine-readable format. It should also be noted that the choice of NPCs by the examiner might involve some measure of arbitrariness due to accessibility of documents, level of expertise, and features of the technological area (e.g. Collins and Wyatt, 1988). These caveats notwithstanding, examiner-given NPCs to the scientific and technical literature constitute valid empirical evidence of linkages (causal or otherwise) between research outputs and innovative applications, which is specifically suitable for aggregate level quantitative studies of science–technology interaction patterns (Schmoch, 1993; Narin, 1994; Tijssen et al., 2000; Tijssen, 2001). In absence of further data on the motives and selection mechanisms of examiners these front page NPCs are considered to be either significant contributions of scientific and technical research to the patented invention, or relevant for the description of the state-of-art in corresponding fields of science or engineering. 3. Findings 3.1. Patent sample The postal survey comprised of a total of 171 questionnaires, of which 93 were returned with partial or complete responses (55% response rate). 7 The institutional distribution of the respondents covers the five major R&D-intensive multinational enterprises (MNEs) in The Netherlands (Philips, Akzo Nobel, Unilever, DSM-Gist, and Shell), a total of 42 7 One patent was deleted from the final statistical analysis due to insufficient data. other business enterprises including several small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), five universities, and six public research laboratories. When looking at more than one or two technical areas and types of institutions, one obviously has to deal with the great variety of patents, and environments in which R&D activities and patenting take place. An appropriate nation-wide innovation survey should therefore cover this variety as much as possible in the patent sample. Table 1 provides a general overview of this diversity with the present sample broken down by the main institutional sector of the inventor. It concerns the three background variables of the patents: (1) technical area of invention; (2) stage of development of the invention (has it evolved into a ‘technological innovation’?), and (3) the patent’s commercial value. The findings illustrate the heterogeneity of this patent sample, where each main institutional sector seems to have its own distinctive innovation profile. Chi-squares analyses indicate very significant differences in terms of the patent distributions of institutional sectors across technical areas (χ 2 -value = 22.5, d.f. = 10, P = 0.01). The five large multinational corporations tend to concentrate their R&D efforts in three main technical areas, whereas the patents of other smaller firms are more equally distributed, reflecting the wide variety of SMEs in the sample. More than 50% of the patents held by universities and public research labs are assigned to the pharmaceutics and medicine sector, which is well known for its relatively large input from academic research in the life sciences (e.g. Tijssen et al., 2000). In contrast, no significant differences were found between sectors with regard to the invention’s stage of development (χ 2 -value = 3.87, d.f. = 6, P = 0.69). Some 20% of the technical inventions were not (yet) developed any further, 40–50% are under further development, and 25–35% had in effect become technological innovations. This outcome for the public sector may come as a surprise given their emphasis on research rather than technical development, let alone commercial exploitation of their inventions. The main explanation lies in the fact that several of these public sector patents were actually transferred to external parties for further development and commercialisation in return for additional funding of follow-up academic research. R.J.W. Tijssen / Research Policy 31 (2002) 509–526 515 Table 1 Key characteristics of the patents (% distribution, and number of cases per main institutional sector, n) Institutional sector of patent assignee/applicant MNEs % Other firms n Public sector % n % n 10 6 8 7 8 3 12 8 54 19 8 3 2 14 5 2 assignee/applicanta Main technical area of the patent Chemistry and materials Electronics and information technology Pharmaceutics, medicine and biotechnology Instruments and controls Machines and transport Other 39 26 26 4 9 6 6 1 4 1 23 14 19 16 19 7 Development stage of the technical No development (so far) or discontinued Further development in progress Commercial application, market introduction Other, unknown 20 48 24 8 5 12 6 2 19 40 36 5 8 17 15 2 24 52 24 6 13 6 Current economic value of patentc New product and/or process Improved product and/or process Sales of patent rights Licenses or cross-licenses Other, unknown 39 26 4 4 26 9 6 1 1 6 43 23 5 16 14 19 10 2 7 6 19 22 13 19 28 6 7 4 6 9 inventionb a The main technical areas are aggregates of areas derived from the FhG-ISI/OST classification scheme which is based on the International Patent Classification codes and used by the French Observatoire des Science et des Techniques (OST, 2000). Two of the responses from the MNEs remained anonymous as for the company identity and therefore its main technical area. b Development or application of the invention was performed either by the assignee listed on the patent and/or externally. c Includes cases with multiple economic benefits derived by the same patent. The benefits are not necessarily accrued by the patent assignee/applicant but may also involve external parties. All three institutional groupings show a range of economic benefits associated with the patented technologies, although some distinctive differences occur between the institution sectors (χ 2 -value = 12.0, d.f. = 8, P = 0.15). The major value of the patents held by companies resides in their contributions to technological innovations, with a 40% share related to new products/processes and an additional 25% share for improved products/processes. The universities and research institutes show a comparatively uniform distribution, covering economic value in terms of product and process innovations but also monetary gain through licensing or sales of patent rights. This is what one would expect given the lack of high-priority or strong incentives in The Netherlands for in-house exploitation of public sector patents. Patent right transfers is occurred in five patents assigned to public sector organisations—but also for six patents of the smaller firms, as well as two owned by an MNE. 3.2. Research as input for innovation The large innovation surveys conducted amongst large European firms in the mid-1990s (PACE, CIS) have provided ample evidence that in-house research of business enterprises are often a key information source for the development of their technological inventions (Arundel et al., 1995). External R&D is generally considered less significant, especially academic research. The results from the most recent Community Innovation Survey (CIS 2) conducted amongst manufacturing firms in The Netherlands indicate that 91% of the respondents considered external information sources to be (very) relevant input to technological innovation processes, whereas external sources are appreciated by only 54% (CBS, 1998). Only 22% of the respondents considered academic research of significance. The corresponding findings on the science-based firms indicate a stronger reliance on 516 R.J.W. Tijssen / Research Policy 31 (2002) 509–526 Table 2 Information sources and science dependence of inventions (% share of scores per main institutional sector) Institutional sector of patent assignee/applicant MNEs Other firms Public sector Important source of idea(s) for invention Internal knowledge, skills and R&D External R&D Other information sources 96 8 24 93 19 29 100 20 32 Dependence of invention on recent researcha Research was essential Substantially delayed without research No direct contribution from research Contribution of research unknown 33 42 25 0 44 5 49 3 72 0 12 16 a Research conducted less than 10 years prior to the priority date of the patent. external R&D: 62% confirm the relevance of external sources, and 34% consider inputs from academic research to be of value for their innovation processes. So clearly, research efforts are important for technological innovations, but exactly how significant are they? Following the categories introduced by Mansfield, the inventors rated the science dependence of their patents according to three categories: (1) the invention would have been impossible without contributions of “recent” research, i.e. research completed less than 10 year prior to the development of the invention; (2) the development of the invention would have been significantly delayed without recent research, or (3) no direct contribution from recent research. Inventions belonging to the first two categories are referred to as “science dependent inventions” (SD inventions) from now on. A broad definition of the term “scientific research” was adopted in the questionnaire, encompassing both in-house industrial research and external scientific research of either an exploratory, strategic or application-oriented nature (see Footnote 6). Moreover, no distinction was made between research that was deemed essential a further the development process (e.g. theoretical findings, measurements) or research that was considered crucial for elements of the invention itself (e.g. technical devices). Additional questions probed for details about the nature of contributions made by scientific research to the R&D process leading to the patent. A distinction was made between three general types of inputs: (a) internal R&D by the inventor(s) or by others within the organisation; (b) external R&D performed primarily outside the organisation, and (c) other information sources. Table 2 presents the data from the inventor survey confirming the PACE findings: the large majority of the inventors rely heavily on their own knowledge and skills and/or in-house R&D as information sources. Inventors at the smaller firms and in the public sector are somewhat more inclined to incorporate results from external R&D, although only 20% of the inventors consider this source relevant. Other information sources are considered to be of somewhat more importance with shares ranging from 24 to 32%. The figures on the relevance of in-house R&D and external R&D also fit in quite well with the findings of the CIS survey in The Netherlands (CBS, 1998). However, with respect to other information sources, CIS data indicate that no less than 80% of the Dutch firms consider publicly available external sources important for innovation. The reasons for significant discrepancy between inventor-given data and CIS data are not quite clear (the scope of these ‘other information sources’ is similar in both cases). The most likely explanation is the marked difference between inventors’ assessment, based on the relevance of those sources in day-to-day R&D practice, versus the overall importance of such in-house facilities as perceived by R&D management staff who usually fill in CIS questionnaires. Clearly, the inventors’ in-house R&D capabilities (i.e. knowledge and skills) represent the essential knowledge base for industrial R&D and innovation. As far as working bench research itself is concerned, 78% of the inventors consider their own engineering research and/or scientific research a (very) important source of input, whereas external research is R.J.W. Tijssen / Research Policy 31 (2002) 509–526 considered (very) important by only 16% of the inventors. So, being engaged in research activity is an important element in building, maintaining and exploiting that knowledge base. In the case of these selected patents, 49% of them could not have been developed without (recent) scientific or engineering research. A further 14% of the patents could not have been developed without considerable delay in the absence of recent research. 8 As for the scores in the sub-set of ‘technological innovations’, i.e. the inventions that lead to concrete applications and/or were introduced into the market embodied in products or processes, similar fractions are found (46 and 10%). On the whole, recent research was considered essential 33% of the patents held by the five largest R&D-intensive multinationals (where research fulfilled an important ancillary role in an additional 42%); 44% of the patents owned by other companies, and for 72% of the university’-assigned patents. Interestingly, 16% of the inventors working in the public sector could not indicate the relevance of recent research, most likely because its precise contribution could not be identified or disentangled from other inputs and information sources. On the subject of academic research, it is important to note that 21% of the patents held by Dutch firms that eventually became technological innovations are based on research (partially) carried out in Dutch public research system. In nearly half of the cases this involved research done in collaboration with Dutch universities. The one-fifth fraction is slightly higher than results derived from large-scale surveys amongst firms that were held in the USA (Mansfield, 1998), indicating a 10–15% share of product innovations or process innovations that would not have been developed without recent public research. However, the 21% share is likely to be upward biased owing to the sampling procedure (see Section 2.2) and will probably drop to similar levels when a larger and more representative set of Dutch-invented patents is examined. 8 The three categories of the “science dependence” variable do not present gradations on a single scale because the intermediate category “substantially delayed without research” introduces the time dimension that is not present in the other categories. For further analytical purposes, this category was merged with “research was essential” into a composite category “direct contribution of research” versus “no direct contribution of research”. 517 3.3. Modelling the science dependence of inventions and innovations The inventor’s stock of knowledge and know-how are obviously essential elements of an inventor’s “R&D knowledge base” 9 when developing successful research-based inventions. Also, being directly engaged in scientific or engineering research is more than likely to be of some significance. However, is research merely one of many useful sources of background information, or is it truly essential for those patented discoveries and inventions? Is the inventor’s knowledge base directly associated with the science dependence of his or her inventions? How large is the contribution of this knowledge base? And to what extent do macro level (“structural”) factors, such as the industrial sector or R&D missions of the organisation, impact on the science dependence? These individual and organisational factors clearly determine the nature and scope of technical inventions, but do they provide for an adequate explanatory model of a technology’s science dependence? As indicated above, the industrial sector matters. Several of the above mentioned innovation studies indicate significant sectoral differences in terms of science dependence. Moreover, recent patent citation studies have shown that the science relatedness of patented innovations is not randomly distributed across industrial sectors but tends to concentrate quite strongly in science-based industrial sectors such as pharmaceutics and biotechnology (e.g. Knoll et al., 1998; Malo and Geuna, 2000). Furthermore, patents assigned to public research institutes and universities are by definition bound to be more science dependent compared to those originating from business companies, especially from the SME’s in the traditional manufacturing sectors. The analytical question is to what extent these structural factors, like technological domain and institutional sector, may help explain the science dependence of inventions. Or are they 9 This concept “R&D knowledge base” consists of two main categories: (1) information sources and (2) the institutional environment in which the R&D is conducted. The former category encompasses all tacit and codified knowledge with a direct or indirect bearing on research activities and technical development that are accessible to the inventor. The latter refers to the corporate R&D unit, university department, or other organisational entity in which the inventor operates during R&D activities. 518 R.J.W. Tijssen / Research Policy 31 (2002) 509–526 Table 3 Factors contributing to the science dependence of technical inventions, multiple regression analysis on the ‘science dependence’ scores provided by the inventors (n = 81) Independent variables Beta coefficients (S.E.) Model 1 Model 2 Information sources Inventor(s) knowledge and skills Technical inventions or research by the inventor(s) Bibliographic information sources (patents, research papers, etc.) External technical inventions (outside the organisation) External research (outside the organisation) Internal interaction (co-workers, colleagues, clients, suppliers, etc.) External interaction (conferences, workshops, trade fairs, etc.) −0.29 0.28 0.22 −0.18 0.15 0.13 −0.05 (0.12) (0.12) (0.14) (0.12) (0.14) (0.11) (0.17) −0.25 0.24 0.10 −0.09 0.09 0.12 −0.08 (0.12) (0.12) (0.15) (0.13) (0.14) (0.12) (0.13) Research environment Outsourcing of basic research Resources for basic research International R&D cooperation Public/private domestic R&D cooperation Resources for applied research −0.19 0.17 0.12 0.08 −0.05 (0.19) (0.17) (0.17) (0.19) (0.17) −0.11 0.12 0.06 0.09 −0.06 (0.20) (0.18) (0.17) (0.19) (0.17) Main institutional sector (of the patent assignee/applicant) Main technical area (of the technical invention) Fit of regression model Multiple r r2 simply underlying variables that are already covered by general characteristics, the R&D environment at the organisational level? Two formal models were defined to examine these issues and test these hypotheses. The first model incorporates the two main factors underlying the inventor’s knowledge base: (1) ‘information sources’ and (2) ‘R&D environment’. The second model examines the possible added value of structural factors. This extended model includes two factors defining the general R&D background, i.e. ‘main technical area’ and ‘main institutional sector’. These four factors are captured by a list of 13 variables presented in Table 3. In this analysis, the set of institutional sectors was extended to five categories: (1) MNEs; (2) SMEs; (3) large enterprises and private R&D labs (LEs); (4) universities, and (5) publicly-funded research institutes. As for information sources, each inventor was asked to indicate the different types of input relevant to the development process leading to the patented invention. With regard to the research environment, respondents identified the research-related main features in their working environment (i.e. within their research unit/department), 0.23 (0.12) 0.15 (0.12) 0.55 0.30 0.60 0.36 more specifically whether of not these aspects had become less/more important in previous years. The original three categories of the dependent variable “science dependence” listed in Table 2 are reduced to two categories: (1) no direct contribution from scientific research, and (2) direct contribution from scientific research—where this research is regarded either “essential” for the invention, or instrumental in preventing “substantially delay” in the technical development. 10 Each quantitative variable defines a nominal measurement scale (i.e. an arbitrary categorical value). The explanatory power of the two specified models is determined by executing a regression analysis model. Multiple regression analysis was performed with the CATREG procedure supported by the SPSS Statistics Package (Windows version 8.0), allowing for variables with categories based on nominal measurement levels. Each regression analysis yields a weighting of the relative importance of the various variables incorporated in the model. Table 3 contains the 10 The 11 cases with “contribution of research unknown” were deleted from the analysis leaving a total of 81 valid cases. R.J.W. Tijssen / Research Policy 31 (2002) 509–526 goodness-of-fit of both models along with list of standardised beta coefficients and standard deviations of each variable. No direct causality can be derived from these coefficients; they simple indicate that the extent to which science dependence of patents relates to each of these key variables taking into account the other variables. Positive coefficients relate to SD inventions. The results of the first “knowledge-base” model suggest that inventor’s information sources are much more important than the research environment in explaining the science dependence of inventions. The highest positive coefficient relates to the information source ‘related inventions and research’ (0.28), which is to be expected. Moreover, the inventor’s own knowledge and skills shows a significant negative coefficient (−0.29). In other words, inventions tend to be more science dependent if the required knowledge and competences are outside the immediate reach of the inventor and hence requires additional (external) research. Furthermore, external knowledge sources such as ‘bibliographic information sources’ (0.22) and ‘external technical inventions’ (−0.18) also appears relatively important. Hence, SD inventions tend to be characterised by R&D activities of inventor and the use of bibliographic information sources. The highest coefficients within the group of variables describing the research environment concern the negative coefficient for ‘outsourcing of basic research’ (−0.19) and its counterpart ‘resources for basic research’ (0.17). Although most of the coefficients are fairly weak, overall it seems fair to conclude that SD inventions tend to correlate with the presence of previous R&D and inventions produced by the inventor, the use of bibliographic data as an information source, and access to resources for basic research. In other words, a typical (private sector) research environment in which inventors are using modern information technology facilities to keep abreast of developments world-wide and retrieve information that is of considerable use for their own R&D activities. As indicated, the fit of the regression model accounts for only 30% of the relational information in the data. Incorporating the two macro level variables (‘main technical area’ and “main institutional sector”) into the “knowledge-base and R&D environment” model may provide a better fit and hence a clearer view of the relative contributions of these variables within the broader context in which the invention 519 was developed. The science dependence of inventions is indeed explained somewhat better by this model (6%-points more variance is accounted for). Both structural variables account for a significant share of the variance in the data, in particular the institutional sector of the patent assignee/application, which proves to be an additional decisive factor in explaining science dependence in addition to the inventor’s own basic knowledge and skills, and previous inventions and research activities. The role of specific elements in the R&D environment is now much less pronounced, suggesting that science dependence of inventions is basically a derivative of institutional sector and the inventor’s R&D capacities and previous achievements. Other internal and external factors do impact on the outcome of R&D processes but seem to exert only a subtle effect. Considering the large amount of unexplained variance this extended model is still at best a crude proxy of the various inputs and background variables in this process. Other, unknown factors seem to play a major role in explaining the science dependence of the inventions. The residual variance might be explained in part by inaccurate measurements and conceptual ambiguities, but it seems more likely that the model fails to account for the role of specific social, cognitive and organisational factor (e.g. teamwork or not, the specific research topic involved, or the presence of adequate technical facilities and instruments) that affect the inventor’s R&D-possibilities and the direction of invention trajectories. Moreover, comparatively little is known about the micro level interaction between the various inputs and constraints shaping the intricate R&D process leading to a discovery or invention, especially with regard the contribution and “lock-in” effects related to the R&D-environment or to “network knowledge” (i.e. information and advise derived from informal interactions with people in the inventor’s personal R&D network). In the main, these findings confirm the generally accepted notion that the R&D intensity for an industrial sector is a common determinant of an invention’s science dependence. SD inventions tend to be found in relatively high numbers in certain R&D-intensive technical areas in conjunction with certain types of science-based assignees. Patents of public research institutes or universities in the pharmaceutics area obviously come to mind as the prime example of such 520 R.J.W. Tijssen / Research Policy 31 (2002) 509–526 Table 4 Institutional and technical sectors of science-dependent inventions in The Netherlands (% of all research-dependent patents)a Main institutional sector (main technical area) Pharmaceutics, medicine, biotechnology Chemistry and materials Electronics and information technology Instruments and controls Machines and transport Other Total MNEs (%) LEs (%) SMEs (%) Research institute (%) University (%) 9 4 2 2 4 9 13 8 2 2 15 8 4 2 4 2 2 2 2 6 21 32 13 21 13 Total (%) 43 17 15 13 9 2 a Patented inventions where recent scientific research was crucial, or where the invention could not have been developed without substantial delay in the absence of that research. cases, as illustrated in Table 4 where these patents account for 21% of all SD inventions. The contribution of the universities also includes a few patents dealing with (medical) instrumentation. The second largest concentration of SD inventions concerns the 13% share of other large enterprises (LEs) in the chemicals area, followed by a 9%-share of these firms in the pharmaceutics area (biotechnology firms mainly) and a 9%-share of the large multinationals in that same area (DSM Gist and Akzo Nobel). Although this patent distribution is partially specific for the situation in The Netherlands (especially with regard to the MNEs), it will also reflect general characteristics of industrial sectors in terms of their R&D intensity, notably in the science-based sector Pharmaceutics, medicine and biotechnology. Fig. 1 displays a map of the underlying co-occurrence pattern of the categories defining the four key Fig. 1. Graphical overview of interrelationships between the research dependence of inventions and key background variables. R.J.W. Tijssen / Research Policy 31 (2002) 509–526 contributing variables. This display is derived from the analysis of interrelationships between these variables based on a descriptive statistical analysis technique HOMALS (supported by the SPSS Statistics Package, Windows version 8.0). The distance between the spatial co-ordinates of each pair of categories in the two-dimensional space is linearly related to their degree of co-occurrence in the data. 11 Visual inspection of this graph reveals a complex relational structure amongst the variables. The upper left-hand quadrant contains the SD inventions in conjunction with two science-related categories: the institutional sector ‘research institutes’, and the science-intensive technical area ‘pharmaceutics, medicine, and biotechnology’. Not surprisingly, we find the other science-related categories ‘basic research’ and ‘applied research’, ‘universities’ in close vicinity in the lower left quadrant. The top of the graph features the technical area ‘ICT and electronics’ accompanied by the institutional sector ‘large enterprises’. On the lower right-hand side of the graph represents the group of research independent patents, which are mainly granted to SMEs active in ‘machines and transport’, ‘instruments and controls’ and ‘other technical areas’. Between these two extremes, we find the MNEs. It is interesting to see that the imaginary axis defined by the science dependence of patents is almost orthogonal to the axis representing the absence/presence of (applied/basic) research, confirming the results in Table 3 that the presence of research activities within organisations is certainly not the most discriminative indicator of patents’ science dependence. The technical area ‘chemistry and materials’ occupies a central position in this graph at the intersection of the imaginary and geometrical axes, thus indicating a relatively large degree of heterogeneity of this particular technical area in terms of its dependence on scientific and engineering research. 11 The HOMALS technique is based on the mathematical decomposition of the relational information (‘variance’) within a data array according to the eigenfactor–eigenvalue method. The first dimension of the graph corresponds to the statistically most important factor, accounting for the largest share of the variance. The second factor—mathematically independent of the first factor— accounts for the second largest share, etc. The first factor accounts for 46% of the variance, the second factor 30%. In total, the two-dimensional space and the corresponding location of the categories account for 76% of all relational information in the table. 521 The models described above incorporate a range of variables related to the R&D process and its organisational and technical environment. Note that the actual outcome of this process in terms of the immediate applicability of the invention or the patent’s commercial value was not included in the model due to lack of sufficient data on factors describing systemic features of the commercialisation process. Modelling these processes and economic pay-offs of research is usually quite difficult, even though a range of valuation methods have been applied to that affect in the 1980s and 1990s (e.g. Averch, 1994). Valuation of patents in this study, in terms of their short-term return on investment, may prove equally difficult since the actual gains may take several years to fully materialise. The data from this survey do at least seem to confirm the notion that research effort and pay-offs in terms of valuable patents seem unrelated. Returning to the background data on the patent briefly described in Table 1, additional correlation analysis reveals that the science dependence of these patented inventions is indeed not correlated with the perceived economic value of the patent (r = −0.03), nor with the current development state of the invention (r = 0.02). Judging by these tentative empirical findings, the science dependence of a technology is indeed no guarantee for a commercially successful innovation. 3.4. Science dependence and non-patent literature citations Some of the crucial research contributions to inventions are bound to be captured by the inventor’s or the patent office examiner’s list of references, especially in those cases where basic scientific research and prior research papers contributed directly to the inventive steps. Several analysts studying the relationships between science and technology have used these citations as an external indicator of contributions made by scientific research. Citation studies of patents have shown that industrial researchers in some fields make extensive use of the current scientific journal literature, especially in science-based industries such as biotechnology and pharmaceuticals when new knowledge and techniques emerge (Narin and Noma, 1985). Narin and co-workers have used these particular citations, listed on the title page of patents issued by the US Patent Office (USPTO), as a proxy 522 R.J.W. Tijssen / Research Policy 31 (2002) 509–526 measure to determine the dependence of technologies on government-funded academic research (e.g. Narin et al., 1997). Others are less convinced that these ‘non-patent citations’ (NPCs) indicate such causal links and prefer to view them in terms of partial indicators of “science relatedness” or “science–technology interaction” (e.g. Schmoch, 1993; Tijssen et al., 2000). Recent studies have indeed raised critical questions concerning the validity of these citations to describe this sequential process of knowledge flows and causality of science–technology linkages (e.g. Meyer, 2000a). Having both the inventors’ ratings and data on NPCs at our disposal provides a unique opportunity to test those citations in terms of their value as an indicator of an invention’s science dependence. Low correlation measures would invalidate the simplistic ‘linear model’ and suggest more complex interactive models of science–technology relationships (e.g. Rip, 1992; Meyer, 2000b). Note that these particular citations reflect only some of the contributions of science to technology, notably the codified part of the knowledge transfer reflecting inputs of (basic) research as a source of ideas, analytical methods and data. Other important sources such as skills, techniques, and instrumentation are usually more embedded in the research process and therefore not very visible through the scientific literature and citation links (Le Pair, 1988). Ideally one would expect to find at least one citation referring to a research paper if the patent has benefited noticeably from scientific research efforts. However, only 17 of the 49 patented RD inventions listed NPCs. Apparently, the science dependence of a technical invention does not automatically lead to large numbers of NPCs on the front page of the patent. At this point it should be taken into account that large differences occur between USPTO patents and EPO/PCT patents with regard to the propensity for including these citations to research papers on the patent examiner reports (see Section 2.3). Nevertheless, SD inventions and science-based patents in either patenting system are likely to contain more NPCs than non-SD inventions. The scores on the NPC variable were therefore split into four categories (i.e. 0; 1 or 2; 3–9; and 10 or more citations). Once again, the variable ‘science dependence’ was reduced to two categories. The Chi-square test indicates no statistically significant differences between NPC distributions between the two RD categories (χ 2 -value = 3.23, d.f. = 3, P = 0.36, n = 75). Clearly, the presence of one or more NPCs on patents is not a good indicator of the invention’s science dependence as perceived by the inventors themselves, thus confirming the questionable validity of these citations as causal measures of knowledge flows from the science base to the technology domain. As noted, this outcome may still mask differences between technical areas and the patent examination objectives and procedures of USPTO and EPO. With regard to EPO patents, the results of the Chi-square test yield a very insignificant χ 2 -value of 0.88 (d.f. = 2, P = 0.65, n = 20), whereas USPTO patents show the expected slightly better, but still statistically insignificant, correspondence between both variables (Chi-square value = 2.91, d.f. = 3, P = 0.41, n = 75). Not surprisingly, we find a very significant relationship between the NPC variable and the main technical areas (χ 2 -value = 48.8, d.f. = 15, P = 0.000, n = 82), where the technical area “pharmaceutics, medicine and biotechnology” accounts for 7 of the 8 patents listing 10 or more NPCs. In conclusion, the presence of NPCs on patents is not related to the science dependence of a invention itself, but should rather be seen as a reflection of the main technical area involved and the common practice amongst USPTO patent applicants (enforced by USPTO regulations) to add such references to either substantiate or restrict the knowledge claims related to the science-based invention. In those cases where NPCs are included, one would at least expect to find a positive correlation with the “science relatedness” of an inventor’s knowledge base and research environment. This is indeed borne out by the findings: the presence of these citations in patents is significantly correlated with the contributions from external research (ρ = 0.35), and the presence of resources for basic research (ρ = 0.32). Not surprisingly, the highest positive correlation (ρ = 0.54) goes to the use of databases for searching papers and patents, a key source for retrieving information on research articles dealing with new developments and associated knowledge domains. Concluding, these findings reject the strong hypothesis of these NPCs as indicators of causal relationships. However, the weaker hypotheses of “science relatedness” and “USPTO enforced citation practices” both seem to hold. R.J.W. Tijssen / Research Policy 31 (2002) 509–526 4. Discussion and conclusions 4.1. Inventor survey methodology The inventor’s perspective was sought to obtain a more accurate micro level “working bench” view of the development process leading to patented inventions. The prime aim was to examine what actually happens in innovation practice, rather than eliciting general information provided by senior R&D management. As such, patents appear to provide a fruitful entry-point on specificities of the technical inventions, and a rich source of insider information on the background and context of their innovation-related R&D efforts. While this analytical method does not associate itself with particular class of patents, or with specific types of innovative products of processes, nor yield a precise measure of science dependence of innovations, it does provide a more systematic and detailed account of the knowledge base and science dependence of technical inventions. The success of this first exploratory study in terms of response rate amongst inventors and the quality of their information presents an encouraging vindication of the research design and methodology adopted. Note that this first study deals only with patented inventions and discoveries, thus discarding those innovations that are not protected by patents. However, using one of their patents as a point of entry, inventors could also be queried about their other important but ‘hidden’ non-patented inventions and innovations. Any assessment of the impacts of R&D on the innovation process is affected by the methodological limits of known methods. Some final critical comments are therefore in order with respect to this particular case study, which is also inevitably restricted in its scope and explanatory power, not least because the complex and interrelated nature of causal and intermediate factors determining science dependence which defies any sort of simplistic ‘one-method one-model’ approach. A general methodological problem is the fact that this kind of expert opinion based ‘object approach’ will always contain organisational-, sectorand nation-specific characteristics. Moreover, this particular small-scale study applies a stratified sampling approach designed to cast a wide net across research performing organisations, firms and industrial sectors in The Netherlands, but does not provide a detailed 523 picture of science dependence across wide range of modern technologies that were (co)developed by Dutch inventors. Consequently, the relatively small sample size is an impediment to a comprehensive understanding of the diversity of science–technology relationships within The Netherlands, let alone for generalisation to other comparable countries. Mail surveys amongst inventors can provide a nuanced understanding and quantitative analysis simultaneously, but one cannot rely on them to capture the complexity of the inventive process and all relevant impacts of related R&D. Clearly, further understanding is required of both the knowledge creation processes and the information sources underlying technical inventions in relation to the variables incorporated in this study. Ideally, one needs a substantial sample of follow-up interviews to verify the questionnaire responses and fully understand results within the context of the case study. When querying inventors one has to keep in mind that these insider accounts also have inherent limitations with regard to the reliability and time-dependence. Expert opinions always contain a subjective element and need verification and objectification. Moreover, confidentiality issues and corporate policies regarding participation in such surveys may affect responses. Also, scientists and engineers do not tend to view their daily activities in terms of distinctive categories derived from innovation surveys and micro-studies of science and technology. Many of the skills, competencies and other inputs to technical inventions are likely to be taken for granted to the practitioner. In addition, the inventor’s views of relevant inputs and the technical and commercial success of an invention may be filtered by the extent of his/her contribution, as well as limited perception of its further development into an innovation and subsequent utilisation and market introduction. Ambiguities in definitions of concepts describing interactions, knowledge flows, or properties of tangible and tacit knowledge inputs, may also lead to misunderstandings and unintended biases in the answers. In this particular case, both key concepts—‘research’ and ‘science dependence’—can be quite slippery notions. It is relatively easy to capture the use of codified research results through the formal scientific and technical literature and for researchers to recall their use of this kind of input into the development of technologies, but the use of tacit “embedded” research knowledge, 524 R.J.W. Tijssen / Research Policy 31 (2002) 509–526 either from the inventors own background and experience (graduate training, attending conferences, etc.) or “network knowledge” provided by a colleague, is less likely to be remembered and show up as a significant research contribution in such a survey. As a result, the construct ‘recent scientific research’ that was used in this study probably defines a too conservative conceptual framework to capture all relevant research-based inputs into the development process. 4.2. Implications for modelling science–technology relationships What then are the overall implications of the results emerging from the models and analyses used in this particular study? The outcome confirms that several, more or less equally influential factors seem to be determining the knowledge creation and transfer processes leading to successful technical inventions. The type of organisation and internal R&D environment are clearly the most significant determinants in the science dependence of its patented inventions. Internal sources are being used heavily for the development of invention ideas, where inventors often cite their own research and previous patents as important elements in the inventive process. Both in-house research and external knowledge sources (science included) appear to be essential assets for securing strategic positions in leading-edge technologies, where the individual knowledge base of R&D personnel seems to be particularly important in the materialisation of creativity, suggesting that the research activity of the staff is important for building up and maintaining innovation power. As for the contribution of external research vis-à-vis in-house research underpinning these Dutch inventions, the results of this study seem to correspond with the outcomes of the Community Innovation Survey held amongst firms in The Netherlands. However, a host of interdependent country-specific factors related to innovative capacity may all impact on how, when and why internal and external research is used in the development of technical inventions. 12 The 12 Notably, industrial structure, firm sizes and the presence of large R&D-intensive multinational corporations, the quality and utility of academic research, university/industry relationships, domestic policies and programmes concerning private R&D, and the commercialisation of public research. outcome of the Communication Innovation Surveys held amongst many thousands of companies in the EU Member States suggests significant differences between the various countries in terms of the main sources of information used for innovation processes (e.g. Bosworth et al., 1996; Eurostat, 2000). Hence, caution is warranted in straightforward generalisation of the findings of this study to other countries. Although the statistical model of the various inputs and background variables explicitly includes the inventor’s R&D environment, it obviously cannot provide a good account of all relevant in-house factors in terms of innovation-related functions of the organisation (research, technical, commerce), nor of the intricate interactions between the external and internal environments (e.g. Forrest, 1991). There is neither a single set of motivating factors characterising groups or individuals that produce technical inventions and technological innovations, nor a single organisational pattern of R&D teams, nor a typical R&D trajectory within an organisation or industrial sector. Moreover, research efforts may serve a variety of purposes, where the resulting learning process and outcomes may or may not prove to be relevant or even crucial for the development of a technical invention. As a result, science–technology interactions are a complex phenomenon where plausible theory and convincing explanatory models are lacking, and the measurement of relevant dimensions is still at an early stage. Despite the many admirable efforts in recent years, such as the renowned Kline and Rosenberg’s chain-link model (Kline and Rosenberg, 1986), we still have no comprehensive conceptual framework nor theoretical scheme capable of determining all relevant (non)causal interrelationships between science and technology. The problem is even more complicated by the fact that science–technology relationships are changing fast in many countries and industrial sectors. The possibilities for statistically modelling and measuring of science–technology relationships and knowledge flows is therefore severely limited by the lack of the satisfactory understanding of the working of the whole mechanism and the availability of relevant empirical data. Not surprisingly then, the fit of the models used in this study leaves the majority of the variance in the data unexplained. However, in view of the above inherent constraints, this outcome should not be seen as insurmountable R.J.W. Tijssen / Research Policy 31 (2002) 509–526 obstacle for further advances in modelling techniques and development of valid indicators. In contrast, their shortcomings should stimulate efforts to seek new information sources and develop an appropriate mix of quantitative and qualitative indicators and improve modelling of science–technology linkages. Fortunately, an abundance of empirical data does exist in the form of patent citations to the research literature, especially on USPTO patents, although one should keep in mind that the citations examined in this study refer only to papers in international science journals that tend to publish basic research findings. One may assume that patents listing these citations are indeed likely to be more basic-research related compared to those without these citations. However, patent documents lacking such citations cannot be regarded as significantly less science-dependent, especially in terms of (in)direct benefits derived from applied scientific research or engineering research. Unfortunately, the results of this study strongly suggest that these citations are invalid micro level measures of causal links between science and technology and should therefore be used with extreme care in innovation studies, especially as proxies of science dependence. The survey-based approach used in this study seems to hold some promise as a way forward. Although these first findings are subject to several restrictions owing to the fact that direct science–technology relationships are hard to identify and quantify, the data from the inventors do shed more light on some relevant features of knowledge bases underpinning the contributions made by scientific and engineering research. The conceptual framework and statistical model used in this study identifies certain general features of these science–technology relations, although it tends to focus only those elements that are relatively easy to identify, categorise and quantify. Clearly, many relevant aspects of the science dependence of modern technologies have yet to be clarified and taken into account. Nevertheless, the (weak) exploratory model and patent-based indicators provide a useful entry-point for highlighting various substantial issues of relevance that deserve further attention and address questions and issues raised by analysts and policy makers. The final overall conclusion to be drawn is that the present scope for interpretation and generalisation from this study on Dutch inventions and inventors to a wider view of science–technology linkages and a 525 broader R&D-innovation linkage theory is obviously still quite limited. The ability of the approach in terms of its robustness to generate and support trustworthy micro narratives, and its scalability and exportability, is therefore an open question. As a consequence, this study should primarily be understood as an exploratory effort contributing to a better modelling and understanding of the tangible linkages between technology and science. As such, it should been seen as step in an on-going knowledge-creation process towards a more comprehensive quantitative model of science-based technical change and innovation that has produced significant empirical results in the 1980s and 1990s which are now shaping debate and measures in domestic and international S&T policy (e.g. OECD, 2000). Acknowledgements The author would like to thank Ton Nederhof, Renald Buter, Erik van Wijk, Suze van de Luijt, and Christine Alkemade for their assistance during various stages of the research project. This undertaking of course would have been impossible without the support and data kindly supplied by all the Dutch inventors participating in the mail survey. The helpful comments of the three anonymous referees, and comments by Barry Bozeman (Georgia Tech) and his PhD students, on an earlier version of this paper, are all gratefully acknowledged. This work was funded by The Netherlands Ministry of Education, Culture and Science. 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