Student Geospatial Lesson
Lesson Title: Comparing Presidential Elections 1896 vs. 2000
Designer: Mike Rudibaugh
Lesson Summary: Students will review concepts of web-based mapping tools relating to layers, attributes,
classification, data queries (filters) and symbology. They will use and examine data sets associated with
presidential election results at a state level for the 1896 and 2000 presidential elections. History and political
science students will use a database developed by information technology professionals and GIS analyst to
assist in evaluating how regional voting patterns and population shifts have occurred across the United
States. Students will use GIS tools and data to evaluate how political patterns relating to republican and
democratic regionalism have evolved over time and the natural consequences on presidential outcomes.
Outcomes of this lab are to identify which regions over time have shifted in their political alignments within
geo-political frameworks and natural population shifts in reshaping how presidential campaigns reach the
needed electoral votes to win elections over time.
Step 1 of this exercise should involved making sure students are aware of geospatial technologies relating to
GPS, GIS, and Remote Sensing. Students should review the following video series, Geospatial Revolution,
from Penn State University in developing the needed awareness to complete this exercise.
Students
Geospatial Revolution - http://geospatialrevolution.psu.edu/episode1
Please watch at least episode 1.
Faculty
Before you begin using this module, you will need to know about using the ArcGIS Online Web-based GIS
viewer and implications on how this tools and rich display impacts curriculum, student engagement, and
potential pedagogical approaches with students. Please watch the following video series relating to how
ArcGIS Online tools can be leveraged to engage students across disciplines:
Video 1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DvKnwec6Dlk&list=PL08EA76F7871A7204
(This is a seven part video series)
Prior Skills: For this activity, you will need to know how to turn on and off layers, query layers, use of the
zoom tool, and use of the ID tool.
Please review the following video series in developing these skills
Tutorial in progress
Remember that computer steps are indicated by a
symbol. Questions you need to answer are numbered.
Please record your answers on a separate sheet of paper.
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Connect to the webpage at: http://bit.ly/1jQb536
When the page loads, you should see the map above. The map above displays the states with no specific
information relating to voting patterns associated with each state.
LAB MODIFICATION
NEW UPDATES WITH THE SOFTWARE, ARCGIS ONLINE, HAVE RESULTED IN SOME MODIFICATIONS TO
THE INSTRUCTIONS. SOME OF THE TOOLS, FUNCTIONS, AND OVERALL LAYOUT WERE MODIFIED WITH
THIS LAST UPDATE. MANY OF THE INSTRUCTIONS BELOW REFER YOU TO ACCESSING TOOLS LIKE
CHANGE STYLE, OPEN TABLES AND FILTERS. THESE TOOLS USE TO BE ACCESSED DIRECTLY FROM
DRODOWN LIST LIKE THE ONE BELOW:
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THESE TOOLS NOW ARE ACCESSED DIRECTLY UNDER THE DATA SET LAYER LIKE SEEN BELOW UNDER
THE CONTENT VIEW
:
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SEE THE KEY BELOW:
OPEN LEGEND VIEW
OPEN ATTRIBUTE TABLE
OPEN CHANGE SYLE BOX TO MODIFY SYMBOLS AND CLASSIFICATION SYSTEM FOR DATA
OPEN FILTER DIALOG BOX TO RUN DATABASE QUERIES TO PRODUCE TARGETED SUB-SETS OF DATA
OPEN MORE OPTIONS TO ACCESS TO MORE TOOLS (THIS TOOL REPLACES THE DROPDOWN
REFERENCE TO NUMEROUS STEPS BELOW)
PLEASE MAKE SURE TO NOTE THESE CHANGES WHEN THE STEPS BELOW REFER YOU TO ACCESS
TOOLS LIKE THE OPEN TABLE, CHANGE SYTLE, FILTERS AND REFER TO ACCESSING NEW TOOLS IN THE
MORE OPTIONS BUTTON.
Click on the contents and legend tabs to review these views.
Click on the contents tab to review the active layers
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Skill Sets: Learning drawing order, layering, accessing attributes, and scale
DRAWING ORDER AND LAYERING
Check each layer to draw the data and observe the patterns on the map.
1. How many layers are currently added to this project and what are the names of each layer?
Two layers were added to the map.
Click on the checkbox for the presidential layers and pay close attention to the map.
2. What impact does clicking on the checkbox do relative to displaying your data on the map?
Click on the checkbox activates a layer to display or not display.
Please click on the zoom tool out to pull out of the map to view all of the lower 48 states. .
MAP SCALE
Click on the zoom tool in the top left to change the scale of through zooming into and out of the map and target
some specific regions around the Unites States (i.e., Midwest, South, and Northeast). Pan around the map by
dragging your cursor within United States. Try to finish by having your map centered over the Midwest and
displaying the lower 48 states (Continental United States).
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3. What impact does zooming into the map and out of the map have on the graphic scale at the bottom
of the screen (i.e., Do the numbers get smaller or larger as you zoom into the map for analysis)?
Zooming into the map causes the numbers on the scale to decrease (large scale) and zooming out of
the map (small scale) results in larger numbers on the graphic scale.
Please reset your view to the contents view in your table of contents.
ACCESSING ATTRIBUTES
Click on the presidential elections layer to examine the attributes.
Click down on the drop down arrow to view your options to access analysis tools. Click on the option, Show
Table, and open the attribute table with this database. .
When the table loads into the map, you should see the associated attribute table at the bottom of the map
demonstrating the linked data to the map.
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The following information profiles the associated keys with outlining the codes used in the election database:
a. Elect_1896 (Political Party that won the election) = 1 (Democrat), 2 (Republican), 3 (No State)
b. Elec_2000 (Political Party that won the election) = 1(Democratic), 2 (Republican)
c. Votes_1896 = Number of electoral votes by state in 1896
d. Votes_2000 = Number of electoral votes by state in 2000
e. Difference = Change in electoral votes from 1896 to 2000 (Great indicator of population, growth, and decline
in proportions to other states over this 104 year period).
Left-click on the Votes_1896 column and select the statistics option.
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Review the summary statistics option for this attribute field in the database.
4. What are the following descriptive statistics for the sum, maximum, and average electoral votes by states in
1896? 447, 36, 8
5. What are the following descriptive statistics for the sum, maximum, and average electoral votes by states in
Votes_2000 column? 538, 54, 10
6. What general trends can you summarize relating to these changes in electoral numbers by the 1896 and 2000
elections relating to changes in the United States?
The nation’s population grew as indicated by both the sum and state average electoral votes. In addition, the
largest state’s electoral vote total moved from 36 to 54.
Close the table by clicking the X on the top right region of the attribute table.
Reset your screen to the original scale and original drawing order for the next phase of the assignment. Please see
the image below in replicating your screen to match the map below. This analysis will target the display and view
of the states and how the political parties performed at a state-level in two different elections separated by more
than 100-years. (Make sure to select your Contents Tab in your table of contents on the left hand side of the
screen)
Skill Sets: Database management, working with attributes data symbology and data classification
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Click on the American Presidential Elections Layer and select the Change Symbols option.
Click on the schools layers dropdown and select the Change Symbols option.
Within the change symbols dialog box please apply a classification demonstrating the performance of the
republican candidate in 1896 (William McKinley) and Democratic Populist (William Jennings Bryan). You
might need to refer the codes referencing the election results in an earlier section of the assignment (See Page 5).
Within the change symbol option please select the following parameter
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You change the color by double clicking the shape and selecting a new color. In modern presidential elections the
color red displays republican wins; whereas, the color blue indicates geographic areas won by democratic
candidates.
Double click the number one under the options field and re-label the number one to display Democrat.
Repeat the following process to produce the following classification:
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Click the done changing symbols button to produce your classification system to display the election results.
Click the legends tab in helping you understand the color and regional patterns with the election results.
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7.
What parts of the country did the political parties do well in relation to winning state-wide elections for their
prospective candidates?
a. Democrat (Bryan) – South, High Plains, and Rocky Mountain States
b. Republican (McKinley)- Northeast, Midwest, and West coast
Repeat the process for the 2000 Presidential Election between the republican, George Bush, and the Democrat, Al
Gore, in profiling the regional patterns with election results. Use the following steps in developing this map in
developing your classification for the 2000 election:
Click the contents button
Select the drop down menu and select change symbols for American Presidential Elections Layer.
Set the symbol classification to use the following approach in developing your map display:
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This approach assigns the color blue to states won by the democrat, Al Gore, and assigns the color red to
states won by the republican, George Bush, for the 2000 President Election.
Double click on the number 1 and 2 to assign a more descriptive reference to the election results in
helping evaluate the map.
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Click Done Changing Symbols Button
Evaluate pattern from the classification and colors produced for spatial analysis.
8. What parts of the country did the political parties do well in relation to winning state-wide elections for their
prospective candidates?
a. Democrat (Gore) – Northeast, Upper-Midwest, and West coast
b. Republican (Bush)- South, High Plains, and Rocky Mountains
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9.
What conclusion can be proposed from comparing the 1896 and 2000 presidential election results in relation
to voter behavior (i.e., Do regions and their loyalties to political parties change over time?)
Yes, the maps indicate over time regional political alliances and affiliations can change. In the case of the 1896
and 2000 elections, that many regions literally flipped in their political preferences for the Democratic and
Republican Party candidates.
WORKING WITH DATABASE QUERIES AND DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS
You need to evaluate the elections results for the two elections to confirm which candidate won the elections.
Running queries will allow you to evaluate how each candidate performed at a state level, and in addition, assess
basic descriptive statistics to evaluate which candidate won more electoral votes and did they reach minimum
votes needs to win the presidency.
Click on the drop down list for the Presidential Elections Layer and select the filter function.
Within the filters dialog box focus your analysis on the filter for the 1896 election. Set your query using the
following parameters targeting the states won by the democrat, William Jennings Bryan, for the 1896 electoral
vote count.
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Click apply filter button to display the states won by the democrat (William Jennings Bryan).
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You have now isolated the states won by the democrat (William Jennings Bryan).
Click on the following tool to access the attribute table to calculate basic descriptive statistics.
Examine the results table and find how many states William Jennings Bryan won.
10. How many states did William Jennings Bryan win in 1896? 22
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Reviews the attribute table and explore the more detailed statistics for the elections results for the states
won by the democratic candidate?
Reviews the attribute table and explore the more detailed statistics for the elections results for the states
won by the democratic candidate?
Click on the Votes_1896 results and select the Statistics Option from the dropdown list.
11. What was the sum and average for the states won by Democratic Candidate, William Jennings
Bryan, for the 1896 election relative to electoral votes? 174 and 7
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. Repeat this process to isolate the states won by Republican, William McKinley, for the 1896 election.
Access the filter function from the contents tab.
Click on the edit option for modifying your query.
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Within the edit option reset your parameters to the following setting to target the republican states, Code
2, for targeting the states won by William McKinley.
Click apply filter.
You should see the following states selected.
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Open the attribute table to access the electoral statistics associated with these states.
Select from the Votes_1896 column the statistics option.
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12. What was the sum and average for the states won by Republican Candidate, William McKinley, for
the 1896 election? 273 and 11
Please repeat the steps for the Votes_2000 attribute. Close at the attribute table
Open the filter dialog box to change the election results for states voting for Al Gore, Democrat, in the
2000 presidential election.
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Click the apply filter option to display only the Al Gore, Democrat, states from the 2000 presidential
election. The map should look the one below.
Follow the process and steps from the 1896 election results to capture the following findings from the
2000 presidential elections.
13. What was the sum and average for the electoral votes by states won by Republican Candidate,
George Bush, for the 2000 election? 271 and 9
14. What was the sum and average for the electoral votes by states won by Democrat Candidate, Al
Gore, for the 2000 election? 267 and 12
15. What implications do these findings indicate relating to each candidate’s pull relative to state-level
trends? Al Gore, Democrat, was pulling from the larger population states in the Northeast, Industrial
Midwest, and West Coast in relation to George Bush, Republican, electoral success in the more rural
states in the South, Upper Midwest, and Rock Mountains Regions.
Remove the filter to reset your original view by selecting filter from the dropdown list.
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Click the remove filter option to reset your map.
Your map should now look like the reset map below:
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.
Spatial analysis tools and using database queries to evaluate regional population shifts
and resulting impacts on American presidential elections from 1896 to 2000
This phase of the exercise will demonstrate how regional population shifts has impacts presidential
elections. Using a set of queries to extract statistical data relating to electoral votes, which are based on
population counts, and shifting patterns across the country in how a given region’s importance in
presidential elections can shift over time. Specific references will target the northeast and western
United States in demonstrating these themes within presidential elections from 1896 to 2000.
Calculate to the total number of electoral votes for both elections by accessing the attribute table for the
Presidential Layer.
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You need to locate the attribute columns for reporting electoral votes for the 1896 and 2000 elections.
Click on the Statistics Votes_1896 and Votes_2000
16. What was the total or sum of the electoral votes for the 1896 and 2000 elections? 447 and 538
Close attribute table to access your filter and database query tools by clicking the X next to the table
options dropdown menu.
Run a query or filter to select just the states in the northeast region of the United States
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Set the following parameters to isolate the northeast states.
This step will isolate the New England and Mid-Atlantic States for electoral analysis. Click apply filter
to run the database query.
The map should now look like the following image below relating to active states displayed on the map.
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Now access the attribute table to calculate the northeast regions electoral vote base. .
When the table loads access the statistics tool from the table attribute table for the 1896_Votes column.
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Review the statistics output table for results.
17). What are the total electoral votes for these states in 1896? 117
18). What percentage of the Electoral College did these states represent in 1896 (You will need to take
the total electoral votes for this region and divide by the total national electoral vote calculated in an
earlier question)? 26.17%
19. What are the total electoral votes for these states for the 2000 election? 106
20. What percentage of the Electoral College did these states represent in 2000 (You will need to take
the total electoral votes for this region and divide by the total national electoral vote calculated in an
earlier question)? 19.7%
Bonus: What can you extract from this data in detailing why Al Gore, Democrat, lost the 2000 election;
whereas; William McKinley, Republican, won the 1896 election by winning the same states over 104-years
apart in time.
The Northeast Region, in 1896, simply represented a higher percentage of the nation’s population and
ultimately electoral votes in 1896. By winning these states in 1896, McKinley, benefits from the nation’s
population focusing in the Northeast; whereas, by 2000 outward migration from the region and faster
population growth in other regions diluted the impact of the Northeast Region with electing presidents. The
net impact in 2000 for Democrat, Al Gore, led to a small electoral defeat, which was in contrast to his
winning of the popular vote, and demonstrates how population shifts or movements can ultimately shape
presidential elections.
Repeat this process to evaluate the western United States. Calculate how the western states, Pacific, have
changed over time between the 1896 and 2000 presidential elections. How has the western states shifted
and what political party is currently benefitting from these shifts.
Career Extension Optional Assignment
Go to the website: http://www.esri.com/industries.html
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Find a career that might be of interest to you. For example, in the Natural Resources list there is a link to
Forestry. In the forestry link there are several job descriptions in the Industry Focus.
Prepare a half-page summary of the types of things that someone would do in this career using GIS.
Search the Internet and look for job possibilities, salary, and locations.
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