Predicting a 2 hour marathon 2012
Abstract
I model the Marathon world records, fastest yearly times and average of top 10 yearly
running times using various model functions for progression of Running Records. After
comparing all the models and working out which model is the best suited to predict future
running times for marathon ,I use those model functions to predict if a 2 hour marathon is
possible and if it is when we can expect to see it. Next, I compare men and women and
conclude that the women will not outrun men in the long run and the difference in record
times between men and women is growing wider.
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Predicting a 2 hour marathon 2012
Acknowledgments
I would like to thank my supervisor, Dr Michael McCabe for all his help and support and also
for providing me with the marathon running data and the model functions. It would have
been next to impossible to write this project without his help and guidance.
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Predicting a 2 hour marathon 2012
Contents
Acknowledgments ............................................................................................................................. 1
Abstract ............................................................................................................................................ 1
Chapter 1- Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 4
Chapter 2- Statistical Forecasting of a 2 hour Marathon .................................................................... 5
Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 5
Analysis on the Models Functions for Progression of Running Records .......................................... 6
1.
Linear model ...................................................................................................................... 6
2.
Piecewise linear .............................................................................................................. 12
3.
Exponential model ........................................................................................................... 16
4.
Reciprocal model ............................................................................................................. 22
5.
Logistic model .................................................................................................................. 26
6.
Harmonic model .............................................................................................................. 29
Chapter 3 -Men Vs Women ............................................................................................................. 37
Chapter 4-Conclusion ...................................................................................................................... 39
Appendices...................................................................................................................................... 41
Appendix 1 .................................................................................................................................. 41
Appendix 2 .................................................................................................................................. 61
Bibliography .................................................................................................................................... 62
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Predicting a 2 hour marathon 2012
Chapter 1- Introduction
There is an ongoing debate in the world of athletics especially in the long distance running
about whether an athlete can run under 1.40s for 800m, sub 9 seconds for 100m and break
the sub 2-hour barrier in a marathon.
The most recent record for 800m outdoor was set by David Lekuta Rudisha from Kenya at
1.41.01 in Rieti when he broke his own record of 1.41.09 set in the same month in Berlin.
Similarly for the men’s 100m outdoor Jamaican athlete Usain Bolt set a new world record of
9.58s when he broke the previous record set by himself and American athlete Tyson Gay of
9.69s.For the marathon, the world record is currently set by Kenyan athlete Patrick Makau
Musyoki at 2:03:38 on 25/09/2011.
All this evidence suggests that the world record for running continues to be broken again
and again. Every time someone breaks the world record many believe that the record is
unbreakable. But along come the elite athletes and break the “unbreakable” record
The first under 2 hours 4 minutes marathon was ran by Haile Gebrselassie, arguably the
greatest distant runner ever on 28/09/2008. As it is typical after a world record is broken,
the world begins looking to the next barrier. The next barrier for now is sub-2-hour
marathon.
This leads us to the “big” question whether there is a limit for human running performance.
Can human running performance continue to improve indefinitely? Olympic gold medal
winning swimmer Michael Phelps famously once said, “You can’t put a limit on anything.
The more you dream, the farther you get”. But does this still hold when it comes to human
limits?
For this project I will be analysing the marathon world records running time and look into
the research that has already been done on this subject. Then I will forecast my version of
if/when the sub-2-hour marathon will be possible. Since records began the world records
has progressed at almost linearly. When will the runners reach the limit of human
endurance? What are the factors that keep runners from achieving the currently
unachievable in the world of marathon running i.e. the sub-2-hour marathon?
I will also look in the long run of marathon and find out how physiological changes
associated with aging has an effect in running capability of a marathon runner.
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Predicting a 2 hour marathon 2012
Chapter 2- Statistical Forecasting of a 2 hour Marathon
Introduction
There has been a numerous study done over the last 50 years to model the Marathon world
records and equal amount of time has been invested by various sports scientists Statisticians
to predict if or when a sub 2 hour marathon will be run.
Scatter graphs of the running times against the year can be plotted and a line of best fit for
each models can be fitted, this line of best fit then can be used to predict when a sub two
hour marathon will be run. I will then compare the predictions given by each model and
work out what the suitable/likely prediction is.
If we look closely at the men’s world records, fastest running times for every year, average
of 10 fastest running times for every year for marathon, we can see that there is a linear
piecewise pattern. In this chapter I will look at various Model functions for progression of
Running Records.
World Record
165
World records 1913-2012
160
Running time(minutes)
155
150
145
140
World records 1913-2012
135
130
125
120
1913
1933
1953
1973
1993
2013
Year
F IGURE 1.1: S CATTER PLO T OF WORLD RECORDS FRO M 1913 TO 2012
Figure 1.1 shows the progression of world records since 1913-2012. Year is on the x-axis and
time(minutes) is in the y axis. From this scatter plot we can see that the time decreases
rapidly up to 1970 and there is a linear pattern from 1970-2012.
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Predicting a 2 hour marathon 2012
“In the early phase of the development of running events, competition is not fierce, and
amateurism dominates. At the infliction point the rate of progress is large, because more
sportsmen get involved, more professional help is available, rewards become more visible,
etc. After this rapid development phase there is a phase of saturation. It is hard to improve
the record and only at a few instances a highly talented individual is able to break it.”
(Kuper and Sterken 2007)
This saying fits perfectly with our world records data. As we can see the world records time
up until the early 50’s is very high compared to the world records of recent years this is
because that was the early phase of the development for marathon. This was during the
World War 1 and World War 2. People were too busy fighting for their countries or trying to
make a living, as the rewards were very low people didn’t think running marathon was a
way of making their living, as a result there were very few professionals and hence
amateurism dominates. After the World War 2 was over in 1945 we can see that there is a
steep decrease in the world records, this could be partly due to more professionals getting
involved and rewards becoming higher and higher . During late 60’s the world records are
broken but not by much, and so a phase of saturation occurs and it is hard to improve the
records.
As time goes by more training facilities are available, people started getting interested in
marathon and more research has been done in this field and as a result there has been a
huge improvement in the design of the running shoes and clothes. This helps elite athletes
to break the world records at few instances as described by Kuper and Sterken(2007)
Analysis on the Models Functions for Progression of Running Records
(All the graphs have the running times on the y-axis and the year on the x-axis)
1. Linear model
where y is the running time and t is the year of that running time. a is the intercept and b is
the slope,
. (McCabe, 2012)
Linear model is probably the most used model for analysis of any sort of running
performance, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that this is the best model to do so. Linear
model of the form
clearly suggests that as
,
. This is impossible
as y is the running time and it is impossible to run a distance in negative time
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Predicting a 2 hour marathon 2012
1.1 Linear model analysis of the world record
a=153.454, b=0.344
165
Running time(minutes)
160
155
150
145
World records 1913-2012
140
linear fit
135
130
125
120
1913
1933
1953
1973
1993
2013
Year
F IGURE 2 L INEAR FIT OF
THE WO RLD RECORDS FROM
1913-2012
Figure 2: above shows linear fit of the world records from 1913 to 2012. Year is on the xaxis and, Time (minutes) is on the y- axis. We can see that data is not very linear, the R^2
value of the linear fit is 0.9311. The linear trend isn’t accurate as the data isn’t very linear.
The predicted time for the 120 minutes mark is 2012.
When we look at the graph we can see that there are two linear patterns. So, I am going to
do a linear fit through 1913-1967 and another linear fit through 1967-2012
165
Running time(minutes)
160
155
150
145
world records 1913-1967
140
Linear
135
130
125
120
1900
1920
F IGURE 3:L INEA R FIT THROU GH
1940
1960
Year
THE WORL D RECORDS FROM
1980
1913
2000
TO
1967
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Predicting a 2 hour marathon 2012
Figure 3 above is the Linear fit for World record in marathon from 1913-1967. Year is on the
x- axis and, Time (minutes) is on the y- axis. The running times from 1913-1967 is not very
linear. R^2=0.8742 for the linear fit doesn’t show much linearity.
The prediction for a 120(minutes) marathon is 1992. But obviously this hasn’t happened so
this tells us that maybe linear models are not the right models to use for progression of
running records.
Figure 4 below shows Linear fit for world records in marathon from 1967-2012, We can see
that the data is almost linear.
R2 =0.9715. The R2 value is closer to 1 than for the linear fit for 1913-1967. This shows a
better linearity.
The equation of the linear fit is
The prediction for sub 2 hours marathon from this linear fit is the year 2034.
Running time(minutes)
135
130
World records 1967-2012
linear fit
125
120
1967
1987
2007 Year 2027
2047
2067
F IGURE 4:L INEA R FIT FO R THE WO RLD RECORD FRO M 1967 TO 2012
Year is in the x-axis and time in minutes is in the y-axis. Series 1 shows the marathon world
records 1967-2012 and series 2 shows the linear fit.
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Predicting a 2 hour marathon 2012
1.2 Linear model analysis of the fastest yearly times
160.00
155.00
150.00
145.00
140.00
fastest yearly times 19452012
135.00
Linear
130.00
125.00
120.00
0
20
40
F IGURE 5: L INEAR FI T FOR THE FA S TEST YEA RLY
60
TIMES F ROM
80
100
1945 TO 2012, 0 CORRES PONDS TO 1945
Figure 5 above shows linear fit for the fastest yearly marathon times from 1945-2012. Years
in on the x-axis and running time(minutes) is on the y-axis. The equation for this linear fit is
R^2=0.7535 shows that the data is not very linear. The sub 2 hour date for using linear fit for
the fastest yearly times is 68 which corresponds to ( 1945+68)=2013.
160.00
Running time(minutes)
155.00
150.00
145.00
140.00
fastest running times 19451969
135.00
linear fit
130.00
125.00
120.00
0
10
20
30
40
Year
F IGURE 6: YEAR IN X - AXIS , AND MARATHON TI ME ( MI NUTES ) IN Y- AXIS , 0 IN THE X - AXIS CORRESPONDS TO
THE YEAR
1945
Figure 6 above shows the linear fit for the fastest yearly time for men’s marathon from 1945
to 1969. R^2 value is 0.883, which tells that the data is not linear. The sub 2-hour running
time has been predicted for 33, this corresponds to the year (1945+33)= 1978. This suggests
that the 120 minutes mark should have been achieved by 1978, but as we all know that
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Predicting a 2 hour marathon 2012
hasn’t happened. This suggestion that using the running times of the early years doesn’t
provide us with good prediction for the future.
Running time (minutes)
135.00
130.00
fastest times 1969-2012
Linear
125.00
120.00
25
45
65
85
105
125
145
Year
F IGURE 7: L INEAR FI T FOR THE FA S TEST YEA RLY
MARATHO N RUNNING TIMES FRO M
1969 TO 2012
Figure 7 above shows the linear fit of the yearly fastest times for men’s marathon since 1969
to present. As we can see the trend is very linear. The prediction for 120 minutes mark using
this data is 96, which corresponds to the year 2041. So if this pattern continues we expect to
see a sub 2- hour marathon in the next 29 years
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Predicting a 2 hour marathon 2012
1.3 Linear model analysis of the average of the top10 fastest yearly times
165.00
Running time (minutes)
160.00
155.00
150.00
145.00
average times 1945-2012
140.00
Linear
135.00
130.00
125.00
120.00
0
20
40
60
80
Year
F IGURE 8 A VERA GE OF TOP 10 FAS TEST YEA RLY
TIMES
1945-2012
Using the average of the top 10 fastest yearly times from 1945-2012 we get the linear fit
above in the figure 8. This looks similar to the linear fit for the fastest yearly times, that’s
because the average of the top 10 fastest running times is very similar to the fastest running
time for that year. The predicted date for the sub 2 hour marathon given by this data is, 69,
which corresponds to 1945+69=2014. According to this we can expect to see a 120 minutes
mark in the next 2 years which is very unlikely.
Linear
Data
Sub 2-hour marathon
prediction date
World records 1913-2012
2012
World records 1913-1967
1992
World records 1967-2012
2034
Fastest yearly times 1945-2012
2013
Fastest yearly times 1945-1969
1977
Fastest yearly times 1970-2012
2041
Average of the top 10 fastest
yearly times 1945-2012
2014
(y=a-b*t)
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Predicting a 2 hour marathon 2012
Although the linear model is not true as the time increases, but this means there is no limit.
In conclusion using the linear fit method we can see that the using running times up till the
late 60’s for the linear fit do not provide a good trend to predict the future times as the
prediction for the sub 2-hour marathon predicted are in the past. And as of yet no one has
yet been able to run the 120 minutes mark marathon.
This means that the running times are slightly linear after the year 1967. There seems to be
2 different sets of linearity exist within the same data as it is clear from the graphs above.
So I am going to do a piecewise linear fit on the running times to see the two different linear
models in for the running times from the beginning to now.
2. Piecewise linear
When analyzing a relationship between the marathon running time, y, and their respective
years, t, it is clear that marathon running times, world records over the years since the
records started there isn’t a linear relationship for different ranges of year. In fact the linear
relationship is quite apparent for the running times up to or around 1970, and similarly a
different linear relationship occurs for the running times after the 70’s to present day.
So, a single linear model is not appropriate because it doesn’t provide proper description as
the running times including the earlier years are so scattered.
A segmented linear regression or the piecewise linear regression is appropriate to analyse
relationship between different clustered data. For my marathon running time data doing a
piecewise linear fit for the running times up till 1970 and 1970-2012 provides two different
linear model fit to the whole data across the x axis.
The linear regression fit that I am using is
, but instead of using a 1 ,a2 and b1 ,
b2 I will be using two different linear models
and
To have a continuous piecewise linear model I need an intersection point P, this is a break
point between the two linear regression lines. Also the function should be continuous at all
points including P. To do this I need two linear equations I mentioned above
(1) for t < P (P is the breakpoint year)
(2) for t > P (P is the breakpoint year)
Where t is the time in the x-axis
For the function to be continuous at P the two linear functions should be equal. So, at the
intersection point P
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Predicting a 2 hour marathon 2012
for t ≤ P
for t > P
Excel command {
, where
(Sandra E.Ryan, Laurie S.Porth, 2007)
2.1 Piecewise Linear model analysis of the world record
a= 1059.413, b= 0.472, c=444.976, d= 0.160, P=1970
165
Running time (minutes)
160
155
150
145
piecewise linear fit
140
world records 1913-2012
135
130
125
120
1913
1963
2013
2063
Year
F IGURE 9:P IECEWIS E LINEAR FI T THROU GH T HE WO RLD
RECO RDS IN MA RATHON FROM THE Y EAR
1913 TO 2012
The years are on the x axis and the running time (minutes) are on the y axis.
Figure 9 above shows a piecewise linear fit for the marathon world records time since 19132012.From the graph it is easier to see why this method is much better and reliant than the
linear fit. We can see the two different linear trends. Predicted date for the sub 2 hours
marathon 2035.The break point I used was 1970 because pre 1970 and post 1970 two very
different trends occur.
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Predicting a 2 hour marathon 2012
2.2 Piecewise Linear model analysis of the average of the top 10 fastest running
times
a=156.298, b=1.146, c=0.176, breakpoint P=20 which corresponds to the year 1955.
165
Running time (minutes)
160
155
150
145
piecewise linear fit
140
average running times 19452012
135
130
125
120
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Year
F IGURE 10: P IECEWISE L INEA R FIT F OR
THE AVERAGE OF TH E
10 FASTEST YEARLY TIMES 1945-2012
Figure 10 shows the piecewise linear fit for the average times of the 10 ten fastest running
times since 1945-2012. The predicted date for the 120 minutes mark is 96 which
corresponds to the year 2041. The two different linear trends are clearly visible in the graph
above. Predicted time for the sub 2 hour marathon is 2041.
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Predicting a 2 hour marathon 2012
2.3 Piecewise Linear model analysis of the fastest running times
a=152.308, b=1.054, c= a-P*(b-d)= 134.055, d=0.142 , Breakpoint P =20 which corresponds
to the year 1965
Running time (minutes)
160
155
150
piecewise linear
fit
145
140
135
fastest running
times 19452012
130
125
120
0
20
F IGURE 11:P IECEWISE LINEAR
40
60
Year
80
FIT THROU GH THE FASTEST YEA RLY TI MES
100
120
1945 TO 2012
Figure 11 is a piecewise linear for the average fastest times since 1945-2012, the breakpoint
is when t=20 which is year 1965.
Although better than the linear model we used earlier Piecewise linear is not a very good
model to measure the progression of marathon running distance because,
this means the running time is eventually going to end up negative and it is impossible to
have a negative running time .
In conclusion it is easy to see that the piecewise continuous linear model for progression of
the world record is better than doing just a linear fit for the same data.
Piecewise linear fit
Data
Prediction for 2 hour
marathon (year)
(
World record 1913-2012
2035
Fastest yearly times 19452012
2044
Average of the 10 fastest
yearly times 1945-2012
2041
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Predicting a 2 hour marathon 2012
3. Exponential model
Where, y is the running time and t is the year. (McCabe, 2012)
The
, already we can see that exponential better model to model the
progression of marathon running data simply because the limit as years go by isn’t negative
running time. A linear model will always diverge but exponential model will converge to a
certain value of a, because exponential model is asymptotic.
3.1 Exponential model analysis for the world records time in marathon
Running time (minutes)
170
160
150
140
exponential fit
world records 1913-2012
130
120
110
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Year
F IGURE 12: E XPONENTIAL FI T THROUGH THE WORLD RECO RDS
FRO M
1913 TO 2012
a=110.781, b=47.094, c=0.014
Figure 12 shows the exponential fit through the world records since 1913 to 2012. The
graph shows that the exponential model is converging towards a which is 110.8 (1dp) which
is the lower bound. This suggests that it is impossible for humans to run a marathon in less
than 110.8 minutes. From the exponential fit I found that this model crosses the 120
minutes mark at 98 which corresponds to the year 1913+98 = 2011. This suggests that this
model is inaccurate because as of yet (2012) no one has broken the sub 2 hour barrier. The
R^2 value for this is 0.869345.
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Predicting a 2 hour marathon 2012
I think including the running times of before 1970 is affecting the exponential fit for the
world record since 1913 to present as the prediction date made for the 120 minutes mark is
in the past.
Therefore I am going to do an exponential fit for the world records excluding pre 1970 and
see what it looks like.
132
Running time (minutes)
130
128
126
exponential fit
world records 1970-2012
124
122
120
57
77
97
117
137
Year
F IGURE 13 SHOWS THE EX PONENTIAL FIT THROU GH THE
WORLD RECORDS OF
1970-2012
The running times are in the y axis and the years are in the x axis. 57 corresponds to the
year 1970. No world record was set between 1967 and 1970.
a=-621.923, b=760.336, c=0.000197
The exponential fit in figure 13 looks almost linear but it converges at a=-621.9 minutes. The
R square value 0.999989 is which is closer to the linear fit which suggests that this model is
not much better than the linear models but at least it converges. The predicted time for 120
minutes mark is 124 which corresponds to the year 1913+124= 2037
Exponential model
Data
Prediction for 120 minutes
World record 1913-2012
2011
World record 1970-2012
2037
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Predicting a 2 hour marathon 2012
3.2 Exponential model analysis fastest yearly times in marathon
Fastest yearly times from 1945-2012, a=125.756, b=29.338, c=0.069
160.00
Running time (minutes)
155.00
150.00
145.00
140.00
fastest times
135.00
Exponential fit
130.00
125.00
120.00
0
20
40
60
80
100
Year
F IGURE 14: EXPONENTIAL FIT THROU GH
THE FA STEST Y EARLY TIMES SINCE
1945.
Fastest yearly times from 1945-1970,
a=125.949, b=29.777, c=0.0746
160.00
Running time (minutes)
155.00
150.00
145.00
140.00
fastest times
135.00
Exponential fit
130.00
125.00
120.00
0
20
40
60
Year
F IGURE 15: E XPONENTIAL FI T
THRO U GH
F ASTEST YEARLY
TIMES
1945-1970
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80
100
Predicting a 2 hour marathon 2012
Fastest yearly times after 1970 till present
a=0, b=134.614, c=0.0012
Running time (minutes)
132
130
128
126
exponential fit
fastest time 1970-2012
124
122
120
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
95
Year
F IGURE 16:E XPONENTIAL
FIT THROU GH THE FASTEST YEA RLY TI MES FROM
1970-2012
Figure14, Figure15 and Figure 16 all have the running times in the y axis and their
respective years in the x axis.
Figure 14 above shows exponential fit for the fastest yearly times form 1945 up until
2012, it converges to 125.76 (2dp). So, this suggests that the fastest running times humans
can achieve in a marathon is 125.76 minutes. Also, the exponential fit never crosses the 120
minutes mark. This suggests that a sub 2 hour marathon is not achievable. This obviously is
not true because in 25/09/2011 Patrick Makau Musyoki (KEN) did the marathon in
02:03:38 which is 123.63(min). (IAAF)
Figure 15 shows the exponential fit through the fastest yearly times before 1970. It
converges to 125.95(2dp) minutes suggesting that it is not possible to run a marathon faster
than that time but as discussed above that cannot be true. This set of data also suggests
that 120 minutes marathon is not possible.
Figure 16 shows exponential fit through the fastest yearly times after 1970. The a
value for this is 0, which suggests that there is no limit for human running performance in
marathon. The fit looks very similar to that of the linear models we saw before. The
predicted date for the 2 hour mark is 98 which corresponds to the year 2043. It is clear by
now that by now it is clear that it will be necessary to focus mainly on the data since 1970,
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Predicting a 2 hour marathon 2012
the entire data set or the set up until 1969 will not give a reasonable upper limit or
necessarily the right predicted future dates.
Exponential model
Data
Predicted year for a 2 hour
marathon
Fastest yearly times 1945-2012
N/A
Fastest yearly times 1945-1970
N/A
Fastest yearly times 1970-2012
2043
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Predicting a 2 hour marathon 2012
3.3 Exponential model analysis of the average of the top 10 fastest yearly times
in marathon
A=126.302, b=32.594, c=0.0634
165
Running time (minutes)
160
155
150
145
exponential fit
140
average times
135
130
125
120
0
20
40
60
80
100
Year
F IGURE 17: E XPONENTIAL FI T FOR T HE AVERAGE OF TO P 10 FASTES T YEARLY TI MES
FRO M
1945-2012
Figure 17 shows the exponential fit for the average of the top 10 fastest yearly times from
1945-2012. This converges at 126.30 (minutes), but using the same arguments as for Figure
14 and figure 15 this has already been achieved so this further proves that using the data
from before the 1970’s gives a inaccurate estimate. The R squared value for this is 0.783964.
This tells us how likely the future predictions are going to be by using the model. The R
square value is not very close to 1 so this also tells us that the future prediction is not going
to be close.
Exponential fit
Data
Prediction for 2 hour marathon
Average fastest times 1945-2012
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N/A
Predicting a 2 hour marathon 2012
4. Reciprocal model
where y is the running times in minutes and t is the year. This is a better model than
linear because
. This converges to a as time progresses but the linear
model diverges. (McCabe, 2012)
4.1 Analysis of the world records for men from 1967-2012 using the Reciprocal
model
a=115.68, b=842.94
Running time (minutes)
135
130
125
world records 1967-2012
Reciprocal fit
120
115
54
74
94
114
134
154
174
Year
F IGURE 18: R ECIPROCAL FI T FOR WO RLD RECORDS FO R MEN ’ S MA RATHON TIMES 1967-2012, 54 CORRESPONDS
1964.
TO THE YEAR
I chose to ignore the world records from before 1970. No world records were broken from
1967 to 1970. This converges to 115.68 minutes. The predicted time for a 2 hours marathon
is 2108. The R square value is 0.934481, this is close to 1 this tells us that the future
prediction of sub two hour marathon of 2108 according to this model is likely.
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Predicting a 2 hour marathon 2012
4.2 Reciprocal model analysis of the fastest yearly times
a=129.0214, b=38.288, R2=0.055
200.00
Running time (minutes)
190.00
180.00
170.00
160.00
fastest times 1945-2012
150.00
Reciprocal
140.00
130.00
120.00
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Year
F IGURE 19: R ECIPROCAL FI T FOR THE FASTEST YEA RLY TI MES FROM 1945 TO 2012, R UNNING
AND Y EARS ARE IN THE X AXIS . 0 CORRESPONDS TO THE Y EAR 1945
a=121.658, b=251.230, R2=0.934481
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TIMES ( MI NUTES ) ARE IN THE Y AXIS
Predicting a 2 hour marathon 2012
Running time (minutes)
134.00
132.00
130.00
128.00
fastest times 1970-2012
126.00
Reciprocal
124.00
122.00
120.00
25
45
65
85
105
125
145
Year
F IGURE 20: R ECIPROCAL FI T FOR THE FASTEST YEA RLY TI MES FROM 1970 TO 2012, R UNNING
AND Y EARS ARE IN THE X AXIS . 25 CORRESPONDS TO THE Y EAR 1970
TIMES ( MI NUTES ) ARE IN THE Y AXIS
Figure 19 , the reciprocal fit converges at 129 minutes and R2 value is 0.055 meaning that
the predictions made by this model based on the running times from 1945 to 2012 is not
going to be very likely at all. The R2 value is very close to 0. It also suggests that that the 120
minutes marathon will never be achieved but we can ignore that as the R2 value is close to
0.
Figure 20 shows that using the reciprocal fit for the fastest running times from 1970 to 2012
the fastest possible running time to complete a marathon is 121.65(minutes) . R 2 = 0.934481
suggests that by excluding the running times from before the 1970 and using the running
times from 1970 to 2012 the future prediction made by using the reciprocal model is much
more likely.
Page
24
Predicting a 2 hour marathon 2012
4.3 Reciprocal model analysis of the average of the 10 fastest yearly times
a=121.699, b=300.151, R2=0.934
Running time (minutes)
135.00
130.00
average times 1970-2012
Reciprocal fit
125.00
120.00
25
75
125
175
Year
F IGURE 21: RECIPROCAL
FIT THROU GH THE AVERAGE RUNNI NG TI MES FROM
1970-2012. 25 CORRES PONDS TO THE YEAR 1970
Reciprocal fit through the average running times of the top 10 yearly running times
converges to 121 suggesting that sub 2 hour marathon is not possible
Reciprocal model
Data
2 hours marathon prediction
date
World records 1970-2012
2108
Fastest yearly times 1945-2012
N/A
Fastest yearly times 1970-2012
N/A
Average fastest running times 1970-2012
N/A
Page
25
Predicting a 2 hour marathon 2012
5. Logistic model
where y is the running times in minutes , t is the year, b and c are the shape parameters
(McCabe, 2012)
5.1 Logistic model analysis of the world records
World records logistic fit 1913-2012
a=104.305, b=0.34, c=0.0083
R2=0.963296 Prediction 115 which corresponds to 2028
170
Running time (minutes)
160
150
140
logistic fit
130
world records 1913-2012
120
110
100
0
50
100
150
200
Year
F IGURE 22: L OGISTI C FIT FO R THE
MARATHON WO RLD RECO RDS FROM
Page
26
1913-2012
250
Predicting a 2 hour marathon 2012
a=17.011, b=0.878, c=0.00018, R2=0.999839
132
Running time (minutes)
130
128
126
logistic fit
124
world records 1967-1912
122
120
55
75
95
115
135
155
175
Year
F IGURE 23: L OGISTI C FIT FO R THE
MARATHON WO RLD RECO RD RU NNING TIMES FROM
1967-1912, 55 CORRES PONDS TO 1967
Figure 22 above shows the logistic fit for the world records from 1913 to 2012. The value of
a=104.306, which is also the upper limit. This suggests that it is possible to run a marathon
in 104.31 minutes .The date for the sub 2 hour marathon predicted by this model fit is 2028
which is 16 years from now. R2=0.963296 suggests that if this trend carries on it is possible
for this prediction to be real because R2 is close to 1. The formula for this logistic fit is
Figure 23 According to this logistic fit for the world records from 1967 to 2012 the upper
limit is 17 minutes which is impossible to achieve. This fit shows that the sub 2 hours
marathon will be achieved in 2040. R2=0.999839 which is very close to 1 which means that if
this trend carries on the possibility of the prediction being likely is very real. The formula for
this logistic fit is
Page
27
Predicting a 2 hour marathon 2012
5.2 Logistic model analysis of the fastest yearly times
Logistic fit for the fastest yearly times since 1945
A=125.45, b=0.193, c=0.0604
160
Running time (minutes)
155
150
145
140
logistic fit
135
fastest yearly time 1945-2012
130
125
120
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100
Year
F IGURE 24: L OGISTIC
FIT FOR THE FASTEST YEARLY TIMES FROM
1945
TO
2012
Fastest yearly times 1970-2012,
a=39.851, b=0.704, c=0.00053,
Running time (minutes)
132
130
128
logistic fit
126
fastest yearly times
1970-2012
124
122
120
0
50
100
150
Year
F IGURE 25: L OGISTI C FIT FO R THE FASTES T YEARLY TIMES
CORRESPONDS TO THE YEAR 1970
FRO M
1970 TO 2012, 0 CORRES PONDS TO 1945, AND 25
Page
28
Predicting a 2 hour marathon 2012
In Figure 24 above applying the logistic fit through the fastest running times for marathon
from 1945 to 2012 shows that the upper limit 125.45 minutes. But as this barrier has
already been broken this prediction is not realistic. This also suggests that it is not possible
to run a sub 2 hour marathon.
In Figure 25 above applying the logistic fit through the fastest yearly times for marathon
from 1970 to 2012. The predicted date for the sub 2 hours marathon is 101 which
corresponds to 2046. R2=0.999749 is very close to 1 which means that the likely hood of this
prediction coming true is very high based on the data provided.
Applying the logistic fit for the average running times shows that the fastest running time a
marathon can be done in is 124.42 minutes , as this barrier has also been broken I chose not
to include the graph of logistic fit for this. This also means that a sub 2 hours marathon is
not possible.
Logistic model
Data
Prediction for a sub 2 hour
marathon
World records 1913-2012
2028
World Records 1967-2012
2040
Fastest yearly times 1945-2012
N/A
Fastest yearly times 1970-2012
2046
Average yearly times 1945-2012
N/A
6. Harmonic model
where y is the running times (minutes) and t is the year of the running times. is the where
is the Euler-Mascheroni constant whose approximate value is 0.57721. The divergence of
the harmonic series makes it certain that this world record will go on reducing beyond any
limit — although it will take an age to do it. (Crilly, 2011)
To predict the a 2 hours marathon for time t , set y=120(minutes)
Page
29
Predicting a 2 hour marathon 2012
6.1 World record analysis using the harmonic model fit for progression
a= 160.947, b= 7.1578, Prediction=304.5
170
Running time (minutes)
165
160
155
150
145
world records 1913-2012
140
harmonic fit
135
130
125
120
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Year
F IGURE 26: HARMONIC
1913
FIT FOR THE WORLD RECORDS IN MARATHON FROM
a= 176.451, b= 11.414, prediction =140.029
Page
30
1913 TO 2012, 0 IN THE X - AXIS CORRES PONDS TO
Predicting a 2 hour marathon 2012
Running time (minutes)
135
130
world records 1967-2012
harmonic fit
125
120
67
87
107
127
147
167
187
Year
F IGURE 27: HARMONIC
FIT FOR THE WORLD RECORDS IN MARATHON FROM
1967 TO 2012
Figure 26 above shows the harmonic fit through the world records in marathon from 1913
to 2012. Because of the nature of Harmonic series no limit exists. As t tends to , y tends to
- . Because the model diverges this is not a best model to predict the future running times
but for a short term this model works perfectly. The predicted time for a 2 hours marathon
using this model for the world records 1913-2012 is 304 which corresponds to the year
2217.
Figure 27 shows the harmonic fit through the world records from 1967 to 2012. I have
chosen to exclude the running times from 1913 to 1967 because as we found earlier from
the other models using those times doesn’t give a realistic answer. We can see that the
trend for world records from 1967-2012 is linear. The predicted date for the 2 hour
marathon is 2053.
Harmonic model
Data
Prediction for 2 hour marathon
World records in marathon 1913-2012
2217
World records in marathon 1967-2012
2053
6.2 Analysis of the fastest yearly time using the harmonic model for progression
Page
31
Predicting a 2 hour marathon 2012
a= 157.388, b= 7.818, Prediction =118
165.00
Running time(minutes)
160.00
155.00
150.00
fastest times
1945-2012
145.00
140.00
harmonic fit
135.00
130.00
125.00
120.00
0
50
100
150
Year
F IGURE 28: THIS SHOWS THE HARMO NIC FI T THROUGH THE
AXIS CORRESPONDS TO THE YEAR 1945
WORLD RECORDS FOR MA RATHON FROM
1945
TO
2012, 0 IN THE X
(a= 152.218, b= 6.479, prediction=143.878)
Running time (minutes)
135.00
130.00
fastest times 19702012
harmonic fit
125.00
120.00
25
45
65
85
105
125
Year
F IGURE 29: H ARMONI C FIT FO R THE
FASTES T YEARLY TIMES FRO M
1970 TO 2012.
Page
32
145
165
Predicting a 2 hour marathon 2012
Figure 28 above shows the harmonic fit for the fastest yearly times from 1945 to 2012.
The prediction for the 2 hours marathon is 118 which correspond to the year 2063.
The model diverges ultimately but it takes very long time to do so. Therefore the
changes in the world records according to this model will be very minute in the future.
It is very hard to better the running times as they get close to 2 hours.
Figure 29 shows the harmonic fit for the fastest yearly running times from 1970
onwards. I didn’t do any analysis on the times before 1970 because the prediction based
on that data seems to be very unrealistic. Using just the running times from 1970
onwards, the predicted date for the 2 hours marathon is 2088.
Harmonic model
Data
2 hours marathon prediction
Fastest yearly times 1945-2012
2063
Fastest yearly times 1970-2012
2088
6.3 Analysis of the average of the 10 fastest yearly time using the harmonic
model for progression
a= 162.424, b= 8.798, Prediction =123
170.00
Running times (minutes)
165.00
160.00
155.00
150.00
145.00
average times 1945-2012
140.00
harmonic fit
135.00
130.00
125.00
120.00
0
50
100
150
200
Year
F IGURE 30: H ARMONI C FIT FO R THE
AVERA GE RU NNING TIMES OF THE
Page
33
10 FASTEST YEA RLY TI MES
FROM
1945-2012
Predicting a 2 hour marathon 2012
a= 157.722, b= 7.612, Prediction=141.396
Running time (minutes)
135.00
130.00
average running times
1970-2012
harmonic fit
125.00
120.00
25
45
65
85
105
125
145
165
Year
F IGURE 31: H ARMONI C FIT FO R THE
AVERA GE OF
10 FASTES T YEARLY TIMES
FRO M
1970-2012
Figure 30 and figure 31 above show the harmonic fit for the average of the 10 fastest
running times from 1945 to 2012 and 1970 to 2012 respectively. Both model diverge and
suggest that there is no limit for human running performance. Figure 30 gives the predicted
year for 2 hours marathon as 2068 and Figure 31 gives the prediction for the year 2086.
Harmonic model
Data
2 hours marathon prediction
Average times 1945-2012
2068
Average times 1970-2012
2086
Page
34
Predicting a 2 hour marathon 2012
Models
Data
Sub 2hour
marathon
prediction
date
Linear
World records 1913-2012
2012
(y=a-b*t)
World records 1913-1967
1992
World records 1967-2012
2034
Fastest yearly times 1945-2012
2013
Fastest yearly times 1945-1969
1977
Fastest yearly times 1970-2012
2041
Average of the top 10 fastest yearly times
1945-2012
2014
Piecewise linear fit
World record 1913-2012
(
Fastest yearly times 1945-2012
2035
Average of the 10 fastest yearly times
1945-2012
2044
World record 1913-2012
2011
World record 1970-2012
2037
Fastest yearly times 1945-2012
N/A
Fastest yearly times 1945-1970
N/A
Fastest yearly times 1970-2012
2043
Average fastest times 1945-2012
N/A
World records 1970-2012
2108
Fastest yearly times 1945-2012
N/A
Fastest yearly times 1970-2012
N/A
Average fastest running times 1970-2012
N/A
Exponential model
Reciprocal model
y(0)
Rank
5
4
Page
35
2041
2
3
Predicting a 2 hour marathon 2012
1
Logistic model
Harmonic model
World records 1913-2012
2028
World Records 1967-2012
2040
Fastest yearly times 1945-2012
N/A
Fastest yearly times 1970-2012
2046
Average yearly times 1945-2012
N/A
World records in marathon 1913-2012
2217
World records in marathon 1967-2012
2053
Fastest yearly times 1945-2012
2063
Fastest yearly times 1970-2012
2088
Average times 1945-2012
2068
Average times 1970-2012
2086
Page
36
6
Predicting a 2 hour marathon 2012
Chapter 3 -Men Vs Women
Since Paula Radcliffe broke the world record for the women’s marathon at 2:15:25
i.e.135.42 (IAAF), there have been many comparisons made between men’s and women’s
marathon.
When Paula Radcliffe broke the world record in 2003 the fastest time for men’s marathon
for that year was held by Paul Tergat(KEN) at 2:04:55 i.e. 124.92 minutes. (IAAF)
That year the difference in the fastest marathon running time for men and women was 10.5
minutes.
Today, the women’s record in marathon is still 2:15:25 i.e.135.42 minutes and the record for
men is 2:03:42 i.e. 135.42 minutes. (IAAF)
In 2012 the world record for men has gone down to 123.7 minutes but the world record for
women still stays the same. The difference now has gone up to 11.72 minutes. Although this
may not seem like a much of a change in the difference but for marathon this is a very
significant difference. The change suggests that while men keep improving the world
records, women haven’t been able to break the world records since 2003. So have women
reached the fastest time they can run a marathon?
The graph below was used from (Dugas, 2007)
F IGURE 32 :M EN AND
W OMEN MARATHON WORLD RECORD OVER TIME
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37
Predicting a 2 hour marathon 2012
Men’s world records over time shows more linearity that women’s running time .We can
see that the women marathon runners were knocking minutes off from the previous
women’s world records. The improvement in time was significant up until 1985. After 1985
the women’s world records have been improving but at a much slower rate than before
1985. Men’s records also have been improving but the rate of change is much smaller than
that of women until 2003 when Paula Radcliffe broke the world record. Since then men’s
world record have continued on improving but women’s record hasn’t changed.
142.00
140.00
138.00
136.00
134.00
Womens top 10 world
records
132.00
Mens top 10 world
records
130.00
128.00
126.00
124.00
122.00
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
F IGURE 33: CO MPARISON OF THE TO P 10 WORLD RECORDS FOR MEN AND WOMEN
Figure 33 shows the visual representation for the difference between men and women’s top
10 world records to date. The world records for women are in the range of 134 to 140
minutes. Apart from Paula Radcliffe’s record of 135.42 minutes we can see that all the other
records lie in the region of 138-140 minutes. But Men are mostly in the range of 126-123
minutes and the world records have improved mostly in the recent years.
Women are relatively new to the sport of marathon than men are. This doesn’t explain why
women are slower than men in the long run especially now all the women athletes are
doing the same training regime as men. Both sexes are getting the same quality of
professional training and support. Maybe this is due to the physiological factor between the
sexes. A lot of further work needs to be done in this area before we come to any sort of
conclusion. But as things are now and using the historic data so far we can tell that no
woman is ever likely to run a 2 hour marathon.
Page
38
Predicting a 2 hour marathon 2012
Chapter 4-Conclusion
The purpose of my research was to predict the possibility and date of a 2 hours marathon
using various statistical models for progression of running records.
My predictions are all based on historic mathematical trends and don’t take into account
any physiological or scientific evidences. This means that the predictions made are not going
to be 100% accurate. They simply provide an insight to future outcomes could be expected
and are based on the current trend.
From the study done in chapter 2 I found that linear model is very good for studying a trend
for a short period of time but as the time progresses the model starts giving unrealistic
predictions because of its divergence nature. There seems to be multiple trends for the
running times with different ranges of the x. For example the runnings times before 1970
decrease rapidly and have a very different trend but the running times after 1970 decrease
in a much slower rate and has a different trend to that of the pre 1970 running times. This
was made visible by the piecewise linear fit.
Exponential and logistic models gave the best long time estimate simply because they
converge to a positive value when using the whole set of data. When using just the data
from before 1970 these models converged to a negative value making it unrealistic. This
suggests that we get a better estimate for the future if we ignore the running times before
1970.
All the predictions made were simply based on the current trend. In chapter 3 I did
statistical study on whether women will eventually outrun men. Based on the current trend
that is very unlikely. Of course this doesn’t include any physiological factors which could give
us a different answer. The gap between the fastest marathon running time for men and the
fastest running time for women has widened rather than decreasing.
Various factors determine the running time of a marathon and my study is purely statistical.
According to a research done by Dr JO Corbett “whenever you do exercise you are likely to
think how much am I willing to hurt myself? And there is usually a point which holds you
back. But when racing someone head to head the athlete’s brain can manipulate this signal
and keep going” (Corbett, 2011)
If the reward is large, that will persuade more people to take this sport and be a
professional runner. That could certainly bring people from all around the world and more
professional runner means more chance of someone breaking the current world record. And
the bigger cash incentive could make the athletes go beyond the hold back point described
above. After all it’s all in the mind.
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39
Predicting a 2 hour marathon 2012
From my results a 2 hour marathon is possible but it might take a large financial reward,
perfect running conditions, perfect wind speed etc. Scientifically speaking it will always
depend on three crucial physiological elements.
1. Maximal rate of oxygen consumption- VO2max
2. Running efficiency- how quickly they can cover the ground
3. The endurance capability- what percentage of their VO2max they can sustain
(Wilkins, 2011)
Page
40
Predicting a 2 hour marathon 2012
Appendices
(Data provided by my Supervisor Dr Michael McCabe)
Appendix 1
2012 2:04:23
2:04:50
2:04:54
2:04:56
2:05:10
2:05:37
2:05:41
2:05:42
2:05:42
2:06:03
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(1)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(2)
Ayele Abshero (ETH)
28/12/1990 27/01/2012 Dubai
Dino Sefir (ETH)
28/05/1988 27/01/2012 Dubai
Markos Geneti (ETH)
07/06/1984 27/01/2012 Dubai
Jonathan Kiplimo Maiyo (KEN) 1988 27/01/2012 Dubai
Tadese Tola (ETH)
31/10/1987 27/01/2012 Dubai
Wilson Loyanae Ekupe (KEN)
1986 18/03/2012 Seoul
Dadi Yami (ETH)
27/01/2012 Dubai
Abdullah Dawit (ETH)
16/07/1974 7 27/01/2012 Dubai
Deressa Chimsa (ETH)
21/11/1976 27/01/2012 Dubai
James Kipsang Kwambai (KEN) 28/02/1983 18/03/2012 Seoul
2011 2:03:38
2:03:42
2:04:40
2:05:05
2:05:16
2:05:25
2:05:27
2:05:33
2:05:37
2:05:45
(1) Patrick Makau Musyoki (KEN) 02/03/1985 25/09/2011 Berlin
(1) Wilson Kipsang Kiprotich (KEN) 15/03/1982 30/10/2011 Frankfurt
(1) Emmanuel Kipchirchir Mutai (KEN)12/10/1984 17/04/2011 London
(1) Geoffrey Kiprono Mutai (KEN) 07/10/1981 1 06/11/2011 New York City
(2) Levy Matebo Omari (KEN)
03/11/1989 2 30/10/2011 frankfurt
(2) Albert Kiplagat Matebor (KEN) 20/12/1980 3 30/10/2011 Frankfurt
(1) Wilson Kwambai Chebet (KEN) 12/07/1985 10/04/2011 Rotterdam
(2) Vincent Kipruto (KEN)
13/09/1987 10/04/2011 Rotterdam
(1) Moses Cheruiyot Mosop (KEN) 07/07/1985 09/10/2011 Chicago
(2) Martin Lel (KEN)
29/10/1978 17/04/2011 London
2010 2:04:48
2:04:55
2:04:57
2:05:08
2:05:10
2:05:13
2:05:19
2:05:23
2:05:25
2:05:39
(1) Patrick Makau Musyoki (KEN) 02/03/1985 11/04/2010 Rotterdam
(2) Geoffrey Kiprono Mutai (KEN) 07/10/1981 11/04/2010 Rotterdam
(1) Wilson Kipsang Kiprotich (KEN) 15/03/1982 1 31/10/2010 Frankfurt
(1) Patrick Makau Musyoki (KEN) 02/03/1985 26/09/2010 Berlin
(2) Geoffrey Kiprono Mutai (KEN) 07/10/1981 26/09/2010 Berlin
(3) Vincent Kipruto (KEN)
13/09/1987 3 11/04/2010 Rotterdam
(1) Tsegay Kebede (ETH)
15/01/1987 25/04/2010 London
(4) Feyisa Lilesa (ETH)
01/02/1990 11/04/2010 Rotterdam
(3) Bazu Worku (ETH )
15/09/1990 26/09/2010 Berlin
(1) Eliud Kiptanui (KEN)
06/06/1989 1 09/05/2010 Praha
Page
41
Predicting a 2 hour marathon 2012
2009 2:04:27
2:04:27
2:05:04
2:05:10
2:05:18
2:05:20
2:05:27
2:05:29
2:05:41
2:05:47
(1)
(2)
(3)
(1)
(1)
(2)
(3)
(1)
(1)
(1)
Duncan Kibet Kirong (KEN)
25/04/1978 05/04/2009 Rotterdam
James Kipsang Kwambai (KEN)
28/02/1983 2 05/04/2009 Rotterdam
Abel Kirui (KEN)
04/06/1982 05/04/2009 Rotterdam
Samuel Kamau Wanjiru (KEN)
10/11/1986 26/04/2009 London
Tsegay Kebede (ETH)
15/01/1987 06/12/2009 Fukuoka
Tsegay Kebede (ETH)
15/01/1987 26/04/2009 London
Jaouad Gharib (MAR)
22/05/1972 26/04/2009 London
Haile Gebrselassie (ETH)
18/04/1973 16/01/2009 Dubai
Samuel Kamau Wanjiru (IL)
10/11/1986 11/10/2009 Chicago
Vincent Kipruto (KEN)
13/09/1987 05/04/2009 Paris
2008
2:03:58.2
2:04:53
2:05:15
2:05:24
2:05:30
2:05:35.2
2:05:49.0
2:06:10
2:06:15
2:06:17
( 1) Haile Gebreselasie (ETH)
18 Apr 1973 28 Sep 2008 Berlin GER
( 1) Haile Gebreselasie- 2
18 Apr 1973 18 Jan 2008 Dubai UAE
( 1) Martin Lel (KEN)
28 Oct 1978 13 Apr 2008 London ENG
( 2) Samuel Wanjiru (KEN)
10 Nov 1986 13 Apr 2008 London ENG
( 3) Abderrahim Goumri (MAR)
21 May 1976 13 Apr 2008 London ENG
( 2) James Kwambai (KEN)
28 Feb 1983 28 Sep 2008 Berlin GER
( 1) William Kipsang (KEN)
26 Jun 1977 13 Apr 2008 Rotterdam NED
( 1) Tsegay Kebede (ETH)
15 Jan 1987 07 Dec 2008 Fukuoka JPN
( 4) Emanuel Mutai (KEN)
01 Apr 1978 13 Apr 2008 London ENG
( 5) Ryan Hall (CA/USA)
14 Oct 1982 13 Apr 2008 London ENG
2007
2:04:26 (1) Haile Gebreselasie (ETH)
2:06:28.6 (1) Emanuel Mutai (KEN)
2:06:39 (1) Samuel Wanjiru (KEN)
2:06:44.5 (2) Richard Limo (KEN)
2:06:50 (2) Deribe Mergia (ETH)
2:06:51 (2) Abel Kirui (KEN)
2:07:11.8 (3) Paul Kirui (KEN)
18 Apr 1973 30 Sep 2007 Berlin GER
01 Apr 1978 21 Oct 2007 Amsterdam NED
10 Nov 1986 02 Dec 2007 Fukuoka JPN
18 Nov 1980 21 Oct 2007 Amsterdam NED
26 Oct 1980 02 Dec 2007 Fukuoka JPN
04 Jun 1982 30 Sep 2007 Berlin GER
05 Feb 1980 21 Oct 2007 Amsterdam NED
2:07:11.9 (4) James Rotich (KEN)
22 Dec 1978 21 Oct 2007 Amsterdam NED
2:07:13 (3) Atsushi Sato (JPN)
08 May 1978 02 Dec 2007 Fukuoka JPN
2:07:19 (1) Hassan Mubarak Shami (QAT)
02 Dec 1980 15 Apr 2007 Paris FRA
2006
2:05:56 (1) Haile Gebreselasie (ETH)
2:06:37.7 (1) Sammy Korir (KEN)
2:06:39 (1) Felix Limo (KEN)
2:06:41 (2) Martin Lel (KEN)
Page
42
18 Apr 1973 24 Sep 2006 Berlin GER
12 Dec 1971 09 Apr 2006 Rotterdam NED
22 Aug 1980 23 Apr 2006 London ENG
28 Oct 1978 23 Apr 2006 London ENG
Predicting a 2 hour marathon 2012
2:06:43.6 (2) Paul Kirui (KEN)
05 Feb 1980 09 Apr 2006 Rotterdam NED
2:06:51.4 (3) Charles Kibiwott (KEN)
1974 09 Apr 2006 Rotterdam NED
2:06:52 (1) Julio Rey (ESP)
13 Jan 1972 23 Apr 2006 Hamburg GER
2:06:52 (1) Haile Gebreselasie- 2
18 Apr 1973 03 Dec 2006 Fukuoka JPN
2:06:55 (3) Hendrick Ramaala (RSA)
02 Feb 1972 23 Apr 2006 London ENG
2:07:04 (4) Khalid Khannouchi (NY/USA)
22 Dec 1971 23 Apr 2006 London ENG
2005
2:06:19.5
2:07:02
2:07:09
2:07:14
2:07:26
2:07:28
2:07:38
2:07:41
2:07:41
2:07:46
( 1)
( 1)
( 2)
( 3)
( 1)
( 4)
( 1)
( 1)
( 1)
( 5)
Haile Gebreselasie (ETH)
18 Apr 1973 16 Oct 2005 Amsterdam NED
Felix Limo (KEN)
22 Aug 1980 09 Oct 2005 Chicago IL USA
Benjamin Maiyo (KEN)
06 Oct 1978 09 Oct 2005 Chicago IL USA
Daniel Njenga (KEN)
07 May 1976 09 Oct 2005 Chicago IL USA
Martin Lel (KEN)
28 Oct 1978 17 Apr 2005 London ENG
Evans Rutto (KEN)
08 Apr 1978 09 Oct 2005 Chicago IL USA
Julio Rey (ESP)
13 Jan 1972 24 Apr 2005 Hamburg GER
Toshinari Takaoka (JPN)
24 Sep 1970 13 Feb 2005 Tokyo JPN
Philip Manyim (KEN)
24 Mar 1978 25 Sep 2005 Berlin GER
Patrick Ivuti (KEN)
30 Jun 1978 09 Oct 2005 Chicago IL USA
2:06:16
2:06:18
2:06:22.4
2:06:44
2:06:48
2:06:49
2:07:05
2:07:06
2:07:12
2:07:42
( 1) Evans Rutto (KEN)
( 1) Evans Rutto- 2
( 1) Robert Cheboror (KEN)
( 1) Felix Limo (KEN)
( 2) Sammy Korir (KEN)
( 2) Joseph Riri (KEN)
( 3) Joshua Chelanga (KEN)
( 1) Gert Thys (RSA)
( 3) Jaouad Gharib (MAR)
( 1) Jose Rios (ESP)
2:04:55
2:04:56
2:05:50
2:06:15
2:06:33
2:06:36
2:06:38.2
2:06:41.5
2:06:47
2:06:48
( 1) Paul Tergat (KEN)
17 Jun 1969 28 Sep 2003 Berlin GER
( 2) Sammy Korir (KEN)
12 Dec 1971 28 Sep 2003 Berlin GER
( 1) Evans Rutto (KEN)
08 Apr 1978 12 Oct 2003 Chicago IL USA
( 3) Titus Munji (KEN)
1978 28 Sep 2003 Berlin GER
( 1) Michael Rotich (KEN)
29 Oct 1982 06 Apr 2003 Paris FRA
( 2) Benoît Zwierzchiewski (FRA) 19 Aug 1976 06 Apr 2003 Paris FRA
( 1) William Kipsang (KEN)
1977 19 Oct 2003 Amsterdam NED
( 2) Felix Limo (KEN)
22 Aug 1980 19 Oct 2003 Amsterdam NED
( 3) Wilson Onsare (KEN)
15 Jun 1976 06 Apr 2003 Paris FRA
( 4) Driss El Himer (FRA)
04 Apr 1974 06 Apr 2003 Paris FRA
2004
08 Apr 1978 10 Oct 2004 Chicago IL USA
08 Apr 1978 18 Apr 2004 London ENG
1978 17 Oct 2004 Amsterdam NED
22 Aug 1980 26 Sep 2004 Berlin GER
12 Dec 1971 18 Apr 2004 London ENG
27 Mar 1981 26 Sep 2004 Berlin GER
07 Apr 1973 26 Sep 2004 Berlin GER
12 Nov 1971 14 Mar 2004 Seoul KOR
22 May 1972 18 Apr 2004 London ENG
15 Mar 1974 07 Mar 2004 Otsu JPN
2003
Page
43
Predicting a 2 hour marathon 2012
2002
2:05:37.8
2:05:48
2:05:56
2:06:16
2:06:16
2:06:18
2:06:35
2:06:46
2:06:47
2:06:49
( 1) Khalid Khannouchi (NY/USA)
22 Dec 1971 14 Apr 2002 London ENG
( 2) Paul Tergat (KEN)
17 Jun 1969 14 Apr 2002 London ENG
( 1) Khalid Khannouchi- 2
22 Dec 1971 13 Oct 2002 Chicago IL USA
( 2) Daniel Njenga (KEN)
07 May 1976 13 Oct 2002 Chicago IL USA
( 3) Toshinari Takaoka (JPN)
24 Sep 1970 13 Oct 2002 Chicago IL USA
( 4) Paul Tergat- 2
17 Jun 1969 13 Oct 2002 Chicago IL USA
( 3) Haile Gebreselasie (ETH)
18 Apr 1973 14 Apr 2002 London ENG
( 5) Abdelkader El Mouaziz (MAR) 01 Jan 1969 13 Oct 2002 Chicago IL USA
( 1) Raymond Kipkoech (KEN)
1978 29 Sep 2002 Berlin GER
( 2) Simon Biwott (KEN)
03 Mar 1970 29 Sep 2002 Berlin GER
2001
2:06:50 (1) Josephat Kiprono (KEN)
12 Dec 1973 22 Apr 2001 Rotterdam NED
2:07:02 (1) Driss El Himer (FRA)
04 Apr 1974 21 Oct 2001 Amsterdam NED
2:07:06 (2) Josephat Kiprono- 2
12 Dec 1973 21 Oct 2001 Amsterdam NED
2:07:11 (1) Abdelkader El Mouaziz (MAR)
01 Jan 1969 22 Apr 2001 London ENG
2:07:18 (2) Kenneth Cheruiyot (KEN)
02 Aug 1974 22 Apr 2001 Rotterdam NED
2:07:34 (1) Antonio Peña (ESP)
26 Aug 1970 04 Mar 2001 Otsu JPN
2:07:43a (1) Tesfaye Jifar (ETH)
23 Apr 1976 04 Nov 2001 New York NY USA
2:07:45 (1) Semretu Assefa (ETH)
18 Oct 1970 01 Apr 2001 Turin ITA
2:07:46 (1) Julio Rey (ESP)
13 Jan 1972 22 Apr 2001 Hamburg GER
2:07:48 (2) Francisco Javier Cortes (ESP)
25 Oct 1971 22 Apr 2001 Hamburg GER
2000
2:06:36
2:06:51
2:07:01
2:07:15
2:07:20
2:07:29
2:07:33
2:07:42
2:07:47
2:07:47
(1) Antonio Pinto (POR)
(1) Atsushi Fujita (JPN)
(1) Khalid Khannouchi (NY/USA)
(1) Japhet Kosgei (KEN)
(2) Bong-Ju Lee (KOR)
(2) Josephat Kiprono (KEN)
(2) Abdelkader El Mouaziz (MAR)
(1) Simon Biwott (KEN)
(2) Antonio Peña (ESP)
(3) Moses Tanui (KEN)
22 Mar 1966 16 Apr 2000 London ENG
06 Nov 1976 03 Dec 2000 Fukuoka JPN
22 Dec 1971 22 Oct 2000 Chicago IL USA
20 Dec 1968 13 Feb 2000 Tokyo JPN
11 Oct 1970 13 Feb 2000 Tokyo JPN
12 Dec 1973 22 Oct 2000 Chicago IL USA
01 Jan 1969 16 Apr 2000 London ENG
03 Mar 1970 10 Sep 2000 Berlin GER
26 Aug 1970 10 Sep 2000 Berlin GER
20 Aug 1965 22 Oct 2000 Chicago IL USA
1999
2:05:42 (1) Khalid Khannouchi (NY/MAR)
22 Dec 1971 24 Oct 1999 Chicago IL USA
2:06:16 (2) Moses Tanui (KEN)
20 Aug 1965 24 Oct 1999 Chicago IL USA
2:06:33 (1) Gert Thys (RSA)
12 Nov 1971 14 Feb 1999 Tokyo JPN
2:06:44 (1) Josephat Kiprono (KEN)
12 Dec 1973 26 Sep 1999 Berlin GER
2:06:46.1 (1) Fred Kiprop (KEN)
03 Jun 1974 17 Oct 1999 Amsterdam NED
2:06:48.1 (2) Tesfaye Jifar (ETH)
23 Apr 1976 17 Oct 1999 Amsterdam NED
Page
44
Predicting a 2 hour marathon 2012
2:06:49.1 (3) William Kiplagat (KEN)
2:06:56.1 (4) Tesfaye Tola (ETH)
2:06:57 (2) Takayuki Inubushi (JPN)
2:07:09 (1) Japhet Kosgei (KEN)
21 Jun 1972 17 Oct 1999 Amsterdam NED
19 Jun 1974 17 Oct 1999 Amsterdam NED
11 Aug 1972 26 Sep 1999 Berlin GER
20 Dec 1968 18 Apr 1999 Rotterdam NED
1998
2:06:05 (1) Ronaldo daCosta (BRA)
07 Jun 1970 20 Sep 1998 Berlin GER
2:06:53.3 (1) Ondoro Osoro (KEN)
03 Dec 1967 11 Oct 1998 Chicago IL USA
2:07:19 (2) Khalid Khannouchi (NY/MAR)
22 Dec 1971 11 Oct 1998 Chicago IL USA
2:07:26 (1) Fabian Roncero (ESP)
19 Oct 1970 19 Apr 1998 Rotterdam NED
2:07:27 (2) Josephat Kiprono (KEN)
12 Dec 1973 20 Sep 1998 Berlin GER
2:07:34a (1) Moses Tanui (KEN)
20 Aug 1965 20 Apr 1998 Boston MA USA
2:07:37a (2) Joseph Chebet (KEN)
23 Aug 1970 20 Apr 1998 Boston MA USA
2:07:44 (2) Bong-Ju Lee (KOR)
11 Oct 1970 19 Apr 1998 Rotterdam NED
2:07:45 (3) Gert Thys (RSA)
12 Nov 1971 11 Oct 1998 Chicago IL USA
2:07:52a (3) Gert Thys- 2
12 Nov 1971 20 Apr 1998 Boston MA USA
1997
2:07:10
2:07:28
2:07:41
2:07:43
2:07:51
2:07:54
2:07:55
2:07:57
2:08:00
2:08:02
(1) Khalid Khannouchi (NY/MAR)
22 Dec 1971 19 Oct 1997 Chicago IL USA
(1) Josiah Thugwane (RSA)
15 Apr 1971 07 Dec 1997 Fukuoka JPN
(1) Elijah Lagat (KEN)
19 Jun 1966 28 Sep 1997 Berlin GER
(2) Eric Kimaiyo (KEN)
08 Jul 1969 28 Sep 1997 Berlin GER
(1) Domingos Castro (POR)
22 Nov 1963 20 Apr 1997 Rotterdam NED
(2) Alejandro Gomez (ESP)
11 Apr 1967 20 Apr 1997 Rotterdam NED
(1) Antonio Pinto (POR)
22 Mar 1966 13 Apr 1997 London ENG
(2) Stefano Baldini (ITA)
25 May 1971 13 Apr 1997 London ENG
(3) Sammy Lelei (KEN)
14 Aug 1964 28 Sep 1997 Berlin GER
(3) Sammy Korir (KEN)
12 Dec 1971 20 Apr 1997 Rotterdam NED
2:08:25
2:08:26
2:08:30
2:08:38
2:08:38
2:08:46
2:08:50
2:08:52
2:09:08
2:09:15
(1) Martin Fiz (ESP)
(2) Bong-Ju Lee (KOR)
(1) Gert Thys (RSA)
(1) Vanderlei deLima (BRA)
(2) Antonio Pinto (POR)
(3) Alberto Juzdado (ESP)
(4) Kenjiro Jitsui (JPN)
(1) Paul Evans (ENG)
(3) Manuel Matias (POR)
(1) Abel Anton (ESP)
1996
03 Mar 1963 24 Mar 1996 Kyong-Ju KOR
11 Oct 1970 24 Mar 1996 Kyong-Ju KOR
12 Nov 1971 04 Feb 1996 Beppu JPN
11 Aug 1969 12 Feb 1996 Tokyo JPN
22 Mar 1966 12 Feb 1996 Tokyo JPN
20 Aug 1966 12 Feb 1996 Tokyo JPN
16 Dec 1968 12 Feb 1996 Tokyo JPN
13 Apr 1961 20 Oct 1996 Chicago IL USA
30 Mar 1962 24 Mar 1996 Kyong-Ju KOR
24 Oct 1962 29 Sep 1996 Berlin GER
1995
2:07:02 (1) Sammy Lelei (KEN)
14 Aug 1964 24 Sep 1995 Berlin GER
Page
45
Predicting a 2 hour marathon 2012
2:07:20
2:08:30
2:08:33
2:08:48
2:08:57
2:08:57
2:09:22a
2:09:30
2:09:32
(2) Vincent Rousseau (BEL)
29 Jul 1962 24 Sep 1995 Berlin GER
(1) Dionicio Ceron (MEX)
09 Oct 1965 02 Apr 1995 London ENG
(2) Stephen Moneghetti (AUS)
26 Sep 1962 02 Apr 1995 London ENG
(3) Antonio Pinto (POR)
22 Mar 1966 02 Apr 1995 London ENG
(1) Martin Fiz (ESP)
03 Mar 1963 23 Apr 1995 Rotterdam NED
(3) Antonio Pinto- 2
22 Mar 1966 24 Sep 1995 Berlin GER
(1) Cosmas Ndeti (KEN)
24 Nov 1971 17 Apr 1995 Boston MA USA
(1) Luiz Antonio dosSantos (BRA)
06 Sep 1964 03 Dec 1995 Fukuoka JPN
(2) Antonio Serrano (ESP)
08 Mar 1965 03 Dec 1995 Fukuoka JPN
2:07:15a
2:07:19a
2:07:51
2:08:08a
2:08:09a
2:08:28a
2:08:31
2:08:33
2:08:34
2:08:35a
(1) Cosmas Ndeti (KEN)
(2) Andres Espinosa (MEX)
(1) Vincent Rousseau (BEL)
(3) Jackson Kipngok (KEN)
(4) Young-Cho Hwang (KOR)
(5) Arturo Barrios (CO/MEX)
(1) Antonio Pinto (POR)
(1) Manuel Matias (POR)
(2) Wan-Ki Kim (KOR)
(6) Boay Akonaay (TAN)
24 Nov 1971 18 Apr 1994 Boston MA USA
04 Feb 1963 18 Apr 1994 Boston MA USA
29 Jul 1962 17 Apr 1994 Rotterdam NED
16 Aug 1960 18 Apr 1994 Boston MA USA
22 Mar 1970 18 Apr 1994 Boston MA USA
12 Dec 1963 18 Apr 1994 Boston MA USA
22 Mar 1966 25 Sep 1994 Berlin GER
30 Mar 1962 20 Mar 1994 Kyong-Ju KOR
07 Aug 1968 20 Mar 1994 Kyong-Ju KOR
01 Mar 1970 18 Apr 1994 Boston MA USA
2:08:51
2:09:13
2:09:25
2:09:31
2:09:33a
2:09:43a
2:09:57a
2:10:03
2:10:04a
2:10:06a
(1) Dionicio Ceron (MEX)
(1) Vincent Rousseau (BEL)
(1) Wan-Ki Kim (KOR)
(2) Gert Thys (RSA)
(1) Cosmas Ndeti (KEN)
(2) Jae-Ryong Kim (KOR)
(3) Luketz Swartbooi (NAM)
(1) Richard Nerurkar (ENG)
(1) Andres Espinosa (MEX)
(1) Artur Castro (BRA)
09 Oct 1965 05 Dec 1993 Fukuoka JPN
29 Jul 1962 17 Oct 1993 Reims FRA
07 Aug 1968 21 Mar 1993 Kyong-Ju KOR
12 Nov 1971 05 Dec 1993 Fukuoka JPN
24 Nov 1971 19 Apr 1993 Boston MA USA
25 Apr 1966 19 Apr 1993 Boston MA USA
06 Feb 1966 19 Apr 1993 Boston MA USA
06 Jan 1964 31 Oct 1993 San Sebastian ESP
04 Feb 1963 14 Nov 1993 New York NY USA
12 Nov 1967 10 Oct 1993 Venice ITA
1994
1993
1992
2:08:07 (1) David Tsebe (RSA)
2:08:14a (1) Ibrahim Hussein (KEN)
2:08:36 (1) Dionicio Ceron (MEX)
2:08:38 (2) Manuel Matias (POR)
2:08:47 (2) Young-Cho Hwang (KOR)
2:09:04 (1) Tena Negere (ETH)
2:09:16 (1) Salvador Garcia (MEX)
2:09:28 (2) Isidro Rico (MEX)
Page
46
09 Nov 1966 27 Sep 1992 Berlin GER
03 Jun 1958 20 Apr 1992 Boston MA USA
09 Oct 1965 02 Feb 1992 Beppu JPN
30 Mar 1962 27 Sep 1992 Berlin GER
22 Mar 1970 02 Feb 1992 Beppu JPN
05 Oct 1972 06 Dec 1992 Fukuoka JPN
01 Nov 1962 05 Apr 1992 Rotterdam NED
15 May 1961 05 Apr 1992 Rotterdam NED
Predicting a 2 hour marathon 2012
2:09:29a (1) Willie Mtolo (RSA)
2:09:30 (1) Jae-Ryong Kim (KOR)
05 May 1964 01 Nov 1992 New York NY USA
25 Apr 1966 22 Mar 1992 Chunchon KOR
2:08:53 (1) Koichi Morishita (JPN)
2:09:12 (2) Takeyuki Nakayama (JPN)
2:09:17 (1) Yakov Tolstikov (RUS)
2:09:23 (3) Toru Mimura (JPN)
2:09:28a (1) Salvador Garcia (MEX)
2:09:42 (1) Rob deCastella (AUS)
2:09:55 (1) Osmiro daSilva (BRA)
2:10:00a (2) Andres Espinosa (MEX)
2:10:02 (2) Dionicio Ceron (MEX)
2:10:08 (3) Tesfaye Dadi (ETH)
05 Sep 1967 03 Feb 1991 Oita JPN
20 Dec 1959 03 Feb 1991 Oita JPN
20 May 1959 21 Apr 1991 London ENG
01 Dec 1962 03 Feb 1991 Oita JPN
01 Nov 1962 03 Nov 1991 New York NY USA
27 Feb 1957 21 Apr 1991 Rotterdam NED
09 Oct 1961 13 Jan 1991 Marrakech MAR
04 Feb 1963 03 Nov 1991 New York NY USA
09 Oct 1965 21 Apr 1991 Rotterdam NED
19 Mar 1969 21 Apr 1991 Rotterdam NED
1991
1990
2:08:16 (1) Stephen Moneghetti (AUS)
26 Sep 1962 30 Sep 1990 Berlin GER
2:08:19a (1) Gelindo Bordin (ITA)
02 Apr 1959 16 Apr 1990 Boston MA USA
2:08:32 (2) Gidamis Shahanga (TX/TAN)
04 Sep 1957 30 Sep 1990 Berlin GER
2:09:23 (3) Jörg Peter (GER)
23 Oct 1955 30 Sep 1990 Berlin GER
2:09:28 (1) Gidamis Shahanga- 2
04 Sep 1957 22 Apr 1990 Vienna AUT
2:09:41 (1) Martin Pitayo (MEX)
10 Jan 1960 28 Oct 1990 Chicago IL USA
2:09:41 (2) Antoni Niemczak (NM/POL)
17 Nov 1955 28 Oct 1990 Chicago IL USA
2:09:45 (4) Stephan Freigang (GER)
27 Sep 1967 30 Sep 1990 Berlin GER
2:09:50 (1) David Tsebe (RSA)
09 Nov 1966 24 Feb 1990 Port Elizabeth RSA
2:09:52a (2) Juma Ikangaa (TAN)
19 Jul 1957 16 Apr 1990 Boston MA USA
1989
2:08:01a
2:08:40
2:09:03
2:09:06a
2:09:06
2:09:09
2:09:25
2:09:34
2:09:38a
2:09:40a
(1) Juma Ikangaa (TAN)
(1) Belayneh Dinsamo (ETH)
(1) Douglas Wakiihuri (KEN)
(1) Abebe Mekonnen (ETH)
(2) Stephen Moneghetti (AUS)
(3) Ahmed Saleh (DJI)
(2) Alejandro Cruz (MEX)
(1) Hiromi Taniguchi (JPN)
(2) Ken Martin (CO/USA)
(3) Gelindo Bordin (ITA)
19 Jul 1957 05 Nov 1989 New York NY USA
28 Jun 1965 16 Apr 1989 Rotterdam NED
26 Sep 1963 23 Apr 1989 London ENG
09 Jan 1964 17 Apr 1989 Boston MA USA
26 Sep 1962 23 Apr 1989 London ENG
1956 23 Apr 1989 London ENG
10 Feb 1968 16 Apr 1989 Rotterdam NED
05 Apr 1960 19 Mar 1989 Tokyo JPN
10 Sep 1958 05 Nov 1989 New York NY USA
02 Apr 1959 05 Nov 1989 New York NY USA
1988
2:06:50 (1) Belayneh Dinsamo (ETH)
2:07:07 (2) Ahmed Saleh (DJI)
2:07:35 (1) Abebe Mekonnen (ETH)
Page
47
28 Jun 1965 17 Apr 1988 Rotterdam NED
1956 17 Apr 1988 Rotterdam NED
09 Jan 1964 16 Oct 1988 Beijing CHN
Predicting a 2 hour marathon 2012
2:07:40
2:08:20a
2:08:33
2:08:42
2:08:43a
2:08:44
2:08:44a
(2) Hiromi Taniguchi (JPN)
(1) Stephen Jones (WAL)
(1) Abebe Mekonnen- 2
(2) Juma Ikangaa (TAN)
(1) Ibrahim Hussein (KEN)
(3) Wodajo Bulti (ETH)
(2) Juma Ikangaa- 2
05 Apr 1960 16 Oct 1988 Beijing CHN
04 Aug 1955 06 Nov 1988 New York NY USA
09 Jan 1964 14 Feb 1988 Tokyo JPN
19 Jul 1957 14 Feb 1988 Tokyo JPN
03 Jun 1958 18 Apr 1988 Boston MA USA
11 Mar 1957 17 Apr 1988 Rotterdam NED
19 Jul 1957 18 Apr 1988 Boston MA USA
2:08:18
2:09:50
2:10:06
2:10:09
2:10:11
2:10:15
2:10:17
2:10:25
2:10:26
2:10:32
(1) Takeyuki Nakayama (JPN)
20 Dec 1959 06 Dec 1987 Fukuoka JPN
(1) Hiromi Taniguchi (JPN)
05 Apr 1960 10 May 1987 London ENG
(1) Hiromi Taniguchi- 2
05 Apr 1960 08 Feb 1987 Tokyo JPN
(2) El Mostafa Nechchadi (MAR)
15 Nov 1962 10 May 1987 London ENG
(3) Hugh Jones (ENG)
01 Nov 1955 10 May 1987 London ENG
(4) Gianni Poli (ITA)
05 Nov 1957 10 May 1987 London ENG
(5) Geir Kvernmo (NOR)
29 Oct 1955 10 May 1987 London ENG
(6) Mehmet Terzi (TUR)
05 May 1955 10 May 1987 London ENG
(7) Boguslaw Psujek (POL)
22 Nov 1956 10 May 1987 London ENG
(8) Charles Spedding (ENG)
19 May 1952 10 May 1987 London ENG
2:07:51a
2:08:04a
2:08:10
2:08:15a
2:08:21
2:08:27
2:08:29
2:08:39
2:08:43
2:09:08
(1) Rob deCastella (AUS)
(1) Zithulele Sinqe (RSA)
(1) Juma Ikangaa (TAN)
(2) Willie Mtolo (RSA)
(1) Takeyuki Nakayama (JPN)
(1) Toshihiko Seko (JPN)
(2) Belayneh Dinsamo (ETH)
(3) Abebe Mekonnen (ETH)
(4) Takeyuki Nakayama- 2
(1) Abebe Mekonnen- 2
1987
1986
27 Feb 1957 21 Apr 1986 Boston MA USA
09 Jun 1963 03 May 1986 Port Elizabeth RSA
19 Jul 1957 09 Feb 1986 Tokyo JPN
05 May 1964 03 May 1986 Port Elizabeth RSA
20 Dec 1959 05 Oct 1986 Seoul KOR
15 Jul 1956 26 Oct 1986 Chicago IL USA
28 Jun 1965 09 Feb 1986 Tokyo JPN
09 Jan 1964 09 Feb 1986 Tokyo JPN
20 Dec 1959 09 Feb 1986 Tokyo JPN
09 Jan 1964 19 Apr 1986 Rotterdam NED
1985
2:07:12 (1) Carlos Lopes (POR)
2:07:13 (1) Stephen Jones (WAL)
2:08:08 (2) Djama Robleh (DJI)
2:08:09 (1) Ahmed Saleh (DJI)
2:08:15 (2) Takeyuki Nakayama (JPN)
2:08:16 (1) Stephen Jones- 2
2:08:26 (3) Djama Robleh- 2
2:08:33 (2) Charles Spedding (ENG)
2:08:48 (3) Rob deCastella (AUS)
2:08:58a (1) Mark Plaatges (CO/RSA)
Page
48
18 Feb 1947 20 Apr 1985 Rotterdam NED
04 Aug 1955 20 Oct 1985 Chicago IL USA
1958 20 Oct 1985 Chicago IL USA
1956 14 Apr 1985 Hiroshima JPN
20 Dec 1959 14 Apr 1985 Hiroshima JPN
04 Aug 1955 21 Apr 1985 London ENG
1958 14 Apr 1985 Hiroshima JPN
19 May 1952 21 Apr 1985 London ENG
27 Feb 1957 20 Oct 1985 Chicago IL USA
01 Jun 1961 04 May 1985 Port Elizabeth RSA
Predicting a 2 hour marathon 2012
1984
2:08:05 (1) Stephen Jones (WAL)
2:09:06 (2) Carlos Lopes (POR)
2:09:09 (3) Rob deCastella (AUS)
2:09:14 (1) Jörg Peter (GER)
2:09:20.5a (1) Carlos Lopes- 2
2:09:30 (2) Michael Heilmann (GER)
2:09:41a (1) Ernest Seleke (RSA)
2:09:56a (2) John Treacy (IRL)
2:09:57 (1) Charles Spedding (ENG)
2:09:58a (3) Charles Spedding- 2
04 Aug 1955 21 Oct 1984 Chicago IL USA
18 Feb 1947 21 Oct 1984 Chicago IL USA
27 Feb 1957 21 Oct 1984 Chicago IL USA
23 Oct 1955 21 Jul 1984 East Berlin GER
18 Feb 1947 12 Aug 1984 Los Angeles CA USA
26 Oct 1961 21 Jul 1984 East Berlin GER
12 Jun 1959 31 Mar 1984 Port Elizabeth RSA
04 Jun 1957 12 Aug 1984 Los Angeles CA USA
19 May 1952 13 May 1984 London ENG
19 May 1952 12 Aug 1984 Los Angeles CA USA
2:08:37 (1) Rob deCastella (AUS)
2:08:38 (1) Toshihiko Seko (JPN)
2:08:39 (2) Carlos Lopes (POR)
2:08:52 (1) Toshihiko Seko- 2
2:08:55 (2) Takeshi So (JPN)
2:08:55 (2) Juma Ikangaa (TAN)
2:08:59a (1) Rod Dixon (NZL)
2:09:01a (1) Greg Meyer (MI/USA)
2:09:08a (2) Geoffrey Smith (ENG)
2:09:11 (3) Shigeru So (JPN)
27 Feb 1957 09 Apr 1983 Rotterdam NED
15 Jul 1956 13 Feb 1983 Tokyo JPN
18 Feb 1947 09 Apr 1983 Rotterdam NED
15 Jul 1956 04 Dec 1983 Fukuoka JPN
09 Jan 1953 13 Feb 1983 Tokyo JPN
19 Jul 1957 04 Dec 1983 Fukuoka JPN
13 Jul 1950 23 Oct 1983 New York NY USA
18 Sep 1955 18 Apr 1983 Boston MA USA
24 Oct 1953 23 Oct 1983 New York NY USA
09 Jan 1953 04 Dec 1983 Fukuoka JPN
2:08:52a
2:08:54a
2:09:18
2:09:24
2:09:29a
2:09:30
2:09:33a
2:10:15
2:10:33
2:10:41
07 Aug 1958 19 Apr 1982 Boston MA USA
21 Mar 1956 19 Apr 1982 Boston MA USA
27 Feb 1957 08 Oct 1982 Brisbane AUS
01 Nov 1955 09 May 1982 London ENG
07 Aug 1958 24 Oct 1982 New York NY USA
19 Jul 1957 08 Oct 1982 Brisbane AUS
30 Oct 1950 24 Oct 1982 New York NY USA
25 Mar 1953 05 Dec 1982 Fukuoka JPN
11 Apr 1959 31 Jan 1982 Tokyo JPN
01 Nov 1955 31 Jan 1982 Tokyo JPN
1983
1982
(1) Alberto Salazar (OR/USA)
(2) Dick Beardsley (MN/USA)
(1) Rob deCastella (AUS)
(1) Hugh Jones (ENG)
(1) Alberto Salazar- 2
(2) Juma Ikangaa (TAN)
(2) Rodolfo Gomez (MEX)
(1) Paul Ballinger (NZL)
(1) Vadim Sidorov (RUS)
(2) Hugh Jones- 2
1981
2:08:18 (1) Rob deCastella (AUS)
2:09:27a (1) Toshihiko Seko (JPN)
2:09:28 (1) John Graham (SCO)
2:09:36.2a (1) Dick Beardsley (MN/USA)
2:09:37 (2) Kunimitsu Ito (JPN)
Page
49
27 Feb 1957 06 Dec 1981 Fukuoka JPN
15 Jul 1956 20 Apr 1981 Boston MA USA
18 Jun 1956 23 May 1981 Rotterdam NED
21 Mar 1956 20 Jun 1981 Duluth MN USA
06 Jan 1955 06 Dec 1981 Fukuoka JPN
Predicting a 2 hour marathon 2012
2:10:19 (3) Shigeru So (JPN)
2:10:27a (2) Craig Virgin (IL/USA)
2:10:35a (3) Bill Rodgers (MA/USA)
2:11:00 (1) Rodolfo Gomez (MEX)
2:11:10.4 (1) Kebede Balcha (ETH)
09 Jan 1953 06 Dec 1981 Fukuoka JPN
02 Aug 1955 20 Apr 1981 Boston MA USA
23 Dec 1947 20 Apr 1981 Boston MA USA
30 Oct 1950 01 Mar 1981 Tokyo JPN
07 Sep 1951 13 Sep 1981 Montreal CAN
1980
2:09:01 (1) Gerard Nijboer (NED)
18 Aug 1955 26 Apr 1980 Amsterdam NED
2:09:45 (1) Toshihiko Seko (JPN)
15 Jul 1956 07 Dec 1980 Fukuoka JPN
2:09:49 (2) Takeshi So (JPN)
09 Jan 1953 07 Dec 1980 Fukuoka JPN
2:10:05 (3) Kunimitsu Ito (JPN)
06 Jan 1955 07 Dec 1980 Fukuoka JPN
2:10:09 (4) Garry Henry (AUS)
17 May 1955 07 Dec 1980 Fukuoka JPN
2:10:18.6a (1) Tony Sandoval (NM/USA)
19 May 1954 24 May 1980 Buffalo NY USA
2:10:19.9a (1) Garry Bjorklund (MN/USA)
22 Apr 1951 21 Jun 1980 Duluth MN USA
2:10:23 (5) Shigeru So (JPN)
09 Jan 1953 07 Dec 1980 Fukuoka JPN
2:10:24 (6) Waldemar Cierpinski (GER)
03 Aug 1950 07 Dec 1980 Fukuoka JPN
2:10:29 (7) Kirk Pfeffer (CO/USA)
30 Jul 1956 07 Dec 1980 Fukuoka JPN
1979
2:09:28a (1) Bill Rodgers (MA/USA)
2:10:13a (2) Toshihiko Seko (JPN)
2:10:20 (1) Tony Sandoval (NM/USA)
23 Dec 1947 16 Apr 1979 Boston MA USA
15 Jul 1956 16 Apr 1979 Boston MA USA
19 May 1954 09 Sep 1979 Eugene OR USA
2:10:20 (1) Jeff Wells (TX/USA)
25 May 1954 09 Sep 1979 Eugene OR USA
2:10:35 (1) Toshihiko Seko- 2
15 Jul 1956 02 Dec 1979 Fukuoka JPN
2:10:37 (2) Shigeru So (JPN)
09 Jan 1953 02 Dec 1979 Fukuoka JPN
2:10:40 (3) Takeshi So (JPN)
09 Jan 1953 02 Dec 1979 Fukuoka JPN
2:10:51 (4) Bernard Ford (ENG)
03 Aug 1952 02 Dec 1979 Fukuoka JPN
2:10:54 (3) John Lodwick (OR/USA)
2:11:13 (4) Dick Quax (NZL)
16 Mar 1954 09 Sep 1979 Eugene OR USA
01 Jan 1948 09 Sep 1979 Eugene OR USA
1978
2:09:05.6 (1) Shigeru So (JPN)
2:10:14a (1) Bill Rodgers (MA/USA)
2:10:16a (2) Jeff Wells (TX/USA)
2:10:21.0 (1) Toshihiko Seko (JPN)
2:11:05.0 (2) Hideki Kita (JPN)
2:11:16a (3) Esa Tikkanen (FIN)
2:11:18a (4) Jack Fultz (MA/USA)
2:11:26a (5) Randy Thomas (MA/USA)
2:11:41.2 (3) Shigeru So- 2
2:11:44a (6) Kevin B Ryan (NZL)
Page
50
09 Jan 1953 05 Feb 1978 Beppu JPN
23 Dec 1947 17 Apr 1978 Boston MA USA
25 May 1954 17 Apr 1978 Boston MA USA
15 Jul 1956 03 Dec 1978 Fukuoka JPN
28 Sep 1952 03 Dec 1978 Fukuoka JPN
01 Aug 1953 17 Apr 1978 Boston MA USA
27 Aug 1948 17 Apr 1978 Boston MA USA
28 Jul 1953 17 Apr 1978 Boston MA USA
09 Jan 1953 03 Dec 1978 Fukuoka JPN
22 Jul 1949 17 Apr 1978 Boston MA USA
Predicting a 2 hour marathon 2012
1977
2:10:55.3 (1) Bill Rodgers (MA/USA)
2:11:57.0 (2) Leonid Moseyev (RUS)
2:12:46.6 (1) Bill Rodgers- 2
2:13:04.0 (3) Massimo Magnani (ITA)
2:13:15 (1) Jeff Wells (TX/USA)
2:13:32.4 (1) Pekka Paivarinta (FIN)
2:13:43.8 (1) Kazimierz Orzel (POL)
2:13:47 (1) Garry Bjorklund (MN/USA)
2:13:57.0 (1) Yasunori Hamada (JPN)
2:14:08 (1) Karel Lismont (BEL)
23 Dec 1947 04 Dec 1977 Fukuoka JPN
21 Oct 1952 04 Dec 1977 Fukuoka JPN
23 Dec 1947 21 May 1977 Amsterdam NED
04 Oct 1951 04 Dec 1977 Fukuoka JPN
25 May 1954 11 Sep 1977 Eugene OR USA
04 May 1949 30 Apr 1977 Chemnitz GER
26 Aug 1943 26 Jun 1977 Dêbno POL
22 Apr 1951 04 Dec 1977 Baltimore MD USA
25 Mar 1946 06 Feb 1977 Beppu JPN
08 Mar 1949 17 Apr 1977 Otsu JPN
2:09:55.0 (1) Waldemar Cierpinski (GER)
2:10:45.8 (2) Frank Shorter (CO/USA)
2:11:12.6 (3) Karel Lismont (BEL)
2:11:15.8 (4) Don Kardong (WA/USA)
2:11:50.6 (1) Giuseppe Cindolo (ITA)
2:11:51 (1) Frank Shorter- 2
2:11:58 (2) Bill Rodgers (MA/USA)
2:11:59 (1) Chang-Sop Cho (PRK)
2:12:19.8 (1) Leonid Moseyev (RUS)
2:12:21.2 (1) Waldemar Cierpinski- 2
03 Aug 1950 31 Jul 1976 Montreal CAN
31 Oct 1947 31 Jul 1976 Montreal CAN
08 Mar 1949 31 Jul 1976 Montreal CAN
22 Dec 1948 31 Jul 1976 Montreal CAN
05 Aug 1945 25 Apr 1976 Reggio Emilia ITA
31 Oct 1947 22 May 1976 Eugene OR USA
23 Dec 1947 22 May 1976 Eugene OR USA
18 Jul 1955
1976 Pyongyang PRK
21 Oct 1952 16 May 1976 Dêbno POL
03 Aug 1950 30 May 1976 Wittenberg GER
1976
1975
2:09:56a (1) Bill Rodgers (MA/USA)
23 Dec 1947 21 Apr 1975 Boston MA USA
2:10:08.4 (1) Jerome Drayton (ON/CAN)
10 Jan 1945 07 Dec 1975 Fukuoka JPN
2:10:20.0 (2) David Chettle (AUS)
14 Sep 1951 07 Dec 1975 Fukuoka JPN
2:11:26.4 (3) Bill Rodgers- 2
23 Dec 1947 07 Dec 1975 Fukuoka JPN
2:11:45.0 (4) Giuseppe Cindolo (ITA)
05 Aug 1945 07 Dec 1975 Fukuoka JPN
2:11:55a (2) Steve Hoag (MN/USA)
02 Apr 1947 21 Apr 1975 Boston MA USA
2:12:06a (3) Tom Fleming (NJ/USA)
23 Jul 1951 21 Apr 1975 Boston MA USA
2:12:34.2 (1) Ronald Hill (ENG)
25 Sep 1938 15 Jun 1975 Dêbno POL
2:12:40 (1) Akio Usami (JPN)
31 May 1943 20 Apr 1975 Otsu JPN
2:12:42.6 (5) Eckhard Lesse (GER)
01 Dec 1948 07 Dec 1975 Fukuoka JPN
1974
2:09:12.0 (1) Ian Thompson (ENG)
2:11:13.2 (1) Karel Lismont (BEL)
2:11:18.6 (2) Jack Foster (NZL)
2:11:31.2 (1) Frank Shorter (CO/USA)
2:12:02.4 (2) Eckhard Lesse (GER)
2:12:10.6 (1) Pekka Paivarinta (FIN)
Page
51
16 Oct 1949 31 Jan 1974 Christchurch NZL
08 Mar 1949 14 Jul 1974 Kortemark BEL
23 May 1932 31 Jan 1974 Christchurch NZL
31 Oct 1947 08 Dec 1974 Fukuoka JPN
01 Dec 1948 08 Dec 1974 Fukuoka JPN
04 May 1949 29 Sep 1974 Turku FIN
Predicting a 2 hour marathon 2012
2:12:47.4
2:12:54.4
2:12:58.6
2:13:04.2
(1) Ferdinand leGrange (RSA)
(3) Richard Mabuza (SWZ)
(4) Terry Manners (NZL)
(1) Yasunori Hamada (JPN)
26 Aug 1948 23 Apr 1974 Port Elizabeth RSA
03 Mar 1946 31 Jan 1974 Christchurch NZL
19 Oct 1939 31 Jan 1974 Christchurch NZL
25 Mar 1946 03 Feb 1974 Beppu JPN
1973
2:11:12.6 (1) John Farrington (AUS)
2:11:45.0 (1) Frank Shorter (CO/USA)
2:12:03 (1) Frank Shorter- 2
2:12:07.6 (1) Derek Clayton (AUS)
2:12:24 (1) Eckhard Lesse (GER)
2:12:40 (1) Ian Thompson (ENG)
2:13:22 (2) Ronald Hill (ENG)
2:13:24 (2) Yoshinobu Kitayama (JPN)
2:13:26.7 (1) Jerome Drayton (ON/CAN)
2:13:29 (2) Yoshinobu Kitayama- 2
02 Jul 1942 14 Jul 1973 Sydney AUS
31 Oct 1947 02 Dec 1973 Fukuoka JPN
31 Oct 1947 18 Mar 1973 Otsu JPN
17 Nov 1942 08 Sep 1973 Perth AUS
01 Dec 1948 03 Jun 1973 Manchester ENG
16 Oct 1949 27 Oct 1973 Harlow ENG
25 Sep 1938 27 Oct 1973 Harlow ENG
21 Jul 1948 18 Mar 1973 Otsu JPN
10 Jan 1945 15 Sep 1973 St John's CAN
21 Jul 1948 03 Jun 1973 Manchester ENG
2:10:30 (1) Frank Shorter (CO/USA)
2:12:00.4 (2) John Farrington (AUS)
2:12:19.8 (1) Frank Shorter- 2
2:12:50 (1) Lutz Philipp (GER)
2:12:51 (2) Ronald Hill (ENG)
2:13:16.2 (1) Igor Shcherbak (RUS)
2:13:19.4 (1) Eckhard Lesse (GER)
2:13:59 (2) Vladimir Moiseyev (RUS)
2:14:00.6 (3) Kenichi Otsuki (JPN)
2:14:02.8 (4) Seppo Nikkari (FIN)
31 Oct 1947 03 Dec 1972 Fukuoka JPN
02 Jul 1942 03 Dec 1972 Fukuoka JPN
31 Oct 1947 10 Sep 1972 Munich GER
14 Oct 1940 04 Jun 1972 Manchester ENG
25 Sep 1938 04 Jun 1972 Manchester ENG
09 Jun 1943 28 Apr 1972 Uzhgorod UKR
01 Dec 1948 29 Apr 1972 Chemnitz GER
16 Apr 1941 28 Apr 1972 Uzhgorod UKR
15 Apr 1945 03 Dec 1972 Fukuoka JPN
06 Feb 1948 03 Dec 1972 Fukuoka JPN
2:11:08.8 (1) Derek Clayton (AUS)
2:12:14 (2) John Farrington (AUS)
2:12:39a (1) Ronald Hill (ENG)
2:12:50.4 (1) Frank Shorter (CO/USA)
2:13:09.0 (1) Karel Lismont (BEL)
2:13:22.8 (2) Akio Usami (JPN)
2:13:27a (2) Trevor Wright (ENG)
2:13:42.4 (3) Jack Foster (NZL)
2:13:45.2 (1) Hayami Tanimura (JPN)
2:13:59.6 (2) Trevor Wright- 2
17 Nov 1942 25 Sep 1971 Hobart AUS
02 Jul 1942 25 Sep 1971 Hobart AUS
25 Sep 1938 13 Jun 1971 Manchester ENG
31 Oct 1947 05 Dec 1971 Fukuoka JPN
08 Mar 1949 15 Aug 1971 Helsinki FIN
31 May 1943 05 Dec 1971 Fukuoka JPN
23 Sep 1946 13 Jun 1971 Manchester ENG
23 May 1932 05 Dec 1971 Fukuoka JPN
07 Aug 1944 07 Feb 1971 Kyoto JPN
23 Sep 1946 15 Aug 1971 Helsinki FIN
1972
1971
1970
2:09:28 (1) Ronald Hill (ENG)
25 Sep 1938 23 Jul 1970 Edinburgh SCO
Page
52
Predicting a 2 hour marathon 2012
2:10:31a (1) Ronald Hill- 2
2:10:37.8 (1) Akio Usami (JPN)
2:11:13a (2) Eamon O'Reilly (DC/USA)
2:11:35.8 (2) Ken Moore (OR/USA)
2:12:04 (2) James Alder (SCO)
2:12:12.0 (3) Yoshiaki Unetani (JPN)
2:12:17.8 (4) Jack Foster (NZL)
2:12:19 (3) Donald Faircloth (ENG)
2:12:58.4 (5) John Farrington (AUS)
25 Sep 1938 20 Apr 1970 Boston MA USA
31 May 1943 06 Dec 1970 Fukuoka JPN
02 Jun 1942 20 Apr 1970 Boston MA USA
01 Dec 1943 06 Dec 1970 Fukuoka JPN
10 Jun 1940 23 Jul 1970 Edinburgh SCO
06 Oct 1944 06 Dec 1970 Fukuoka JPN
23 May 1932 06 Dec 1970 Fukuoka JPN
26 Nov 1948 23 Jul 1970 Edinburgh SCO
02 Jul 1942 06 Dec 1970 Fukuoka JPN
2:11:07.2a (1) William Adcocks (ENG)
2:11:12.8 (1) Jerome Drayton (ON/CAN)
2:11:54.4 (2) Ronald Hill (ENG)
2:12:00 (1) Jerome Drayton- 2
2:12:03.4 (3) Hayami Tanimura (JPN)
2:12:52.8 (4) Pablo Garrido (MEX)
2:13:06.4 (5) Toshiharu Sasaki (JPN)
2:13:21.0 (6) Akio Yoshida (JPN)
2:13:25.8a (2) Kenji Kimihara (JPN)
2:13:27.8 (7) Ken Moore (OR/USA)
11 Nov 1941 06 Apr 1969 Athens GRE
10 Jan 1945 07 Dec 1969 Fukuoka JPN
25 Sep 1938 07 Dec 1969 Fukuoka JPN
10 Jan 1945 19 Oct 1969 Detroit MI USA
07 Aug 1944 07 Dec 1969 Fukuoka JPN
22 Jun 1938 07 Dec 1969 Fukuoka JPN
10 Apr 1946 07 Dec 1969 Fukuoka JPN
30 Oct 1944 07 Dec 1969 Fukuoka JPN
20 Mar 1941 06 Apr 1969 Athens GRE
01 Dec 1943 07 Dec 1969 Fukuoka JPN
1969
1968
2:10:47.8 (1) William Adcocks (ENG)
2:12:16.8 (1) William Adcocks- 2
2:12:40.6 (2) Yoshiaki Unetani (JPN)
2:13:23.8 (1) Seiichiro Sasaki (JPN)
2:13:26.2 (2) Nicolae Mustata (ROM)
2:13:37.6 (3) Tadaaki Ueoka (JPN)
2:13:43.6 (4) Ismail Akcay (TUR)
2:13:45.2 (3) Jürgen Busch (GER)
2:13:49 (1) Akio Usami (JPN)
2:13:51.8 (5) Akio Usami- 2
11 Nov 1941 08 Dec 1968 Fukuoka JPN
11 Nov 1941 19 May 1968 Chemnitz GER
06 Oct 1944 08 Dec 1968 Fukuoka JPN
02 Sep 1945 04 Feb 1968 Beppu JPN
24 Feb 1941 19 May 1968 Chemnitz GER
27 Nov 1942 08 Dec 1968 Fukuoka JPN
09 Jul 1942 08 Dec 1968 Fukuoka JPN
24 Dec 1942 19 May 1968 Chemnitz GER
31 May 1943 14 Apr 1968 Otsu JPN
31 May 1943 08 Dec 1968 Fukuoka JPN
2:09:36.4 (1) Derek Clayton (AUS)
2:11:17.0 (2) Seiichiro Sasaki (JPN)
2:12:25.8 (3) David C McKenzie (NZL)
2:13:33.4 (1) Kenji Kimihara (JPN)
2:13:38.6 (2) Seiichiro Sasaki- 2
2:14:40.0 (4) Masatsugu Futsuhara (JPN)
2:14:44.8 (5) James Alder (SCO)
2:14:49.6 (6) Yoshiaki Unetani (JPN)
17 Nov 1942 03 Dec 1967 Fukuoka JPN
02 Sep 1945 03 Dec 1967 Fukuoka JPN
16 Mar 1943 03 Dec 1967 Fukuoka JPN
20 Mar 1941 05 Feb 1967 Beppu JPN
02 Sep 1945 05 Feb 1967 Beppu JPN
17 May 1938 03 Dec 1967 Fukuoka JPN
10 Jun 1940 03 Dec 1967 Fukuoka JPN
06 Oct 1944 03 Dec 1967 Fukuoka JPN
1967
Page
53
Predicting a 2 hour marathon 2012
2:14:50.2 (3) Akio Usami (JPN)
2:15:16 (7) Hidekuni Hiroshima (JPN)
31 May 1943 05 Feb 1967 Beppu JPN
18 Nov 1937 03 Dec 1967 Fukuoka JPN
2:14:04.6 (1) Michael R Ryan (NZL)
2:14:05.2 (2) Hidekuni Hiroshima (JPN)
2:14:35 (1) Toru Terasawa (JPN)
2:14:52 (2) Hirokazu Okabe (JPN)
2:15:09.2 (3) Hirokazu Okabe- 2
2:15:28 (3) Kenji Kimihara (JPN)
2:15:32 (4) Seiichiro Sasaki (JPN)
2:15:35 (5) Isamu Sugihara (JPN)
2:15:36.2 (4) Masatsugu Futsuhara (JPN)
2:15:44 (6) Kazuo Matsubara (JPN)
26 Dec 1941 27 Nov 1966 Fukuoka JPN
18 Nov 1937 27 Nov 1966 Fukuoka JPN
04 Jan 1935 13 Feb 1966 Beppu JPN
04 Aug 1941 13 Feb 1966 Beppu JPN
04 Aug 1941 27 Nov 1966 Fukuoka JPN
20 Mar 1941 13 Feb 1966 Beppu JPN
02 Sep 1945 13 Feb 1966 Beppu JPN
07 Sep 1940 13 Feb 1966 Beppu JPN
17 May 1938 27 Nov 1966 Fukuoka JPN
30 Mar 1939 13 Feb 1966 Beppu JPN
2:12:00a (1) Morio Shigematsu (JPN)
2:13:41a (2) Toru Terasawa (JPN)
2:14:34a (3) Leonard Edelen (USA)
2:14:38 (1) Toru Terasawa- 2
2:15:37 (2) Takayuki Nakao (JPN)
2:16:07.8 (3) Hideaki Shishido (JPN)
2:16:15 (4) Morio Shigematsu- 2
2:16:26 (5) Yoshikazu Funasako (JPN)
2:16:33a (1) Morio Shigematsu- 3
2:16:47a (4) Hirokazu Okabe (JPN)
21 Jun 1940 12 Jun 1965 Chiswick ENG
04 Jan 1935 12 Jun 1965 Chiswick ENG
22 Sep 1937 12 Jun 1965 Chiswick ENG
04 Jan 1935 07 Feb 1965 Beppu JPN
27 Feb 1939 07 Feb 1965 Beppu JPN
25 May 1938 07 Feb 1965 Beppu JPN
21 Jun 1940 07 Feb 1965 Beppu JPN
18 Mar 1938 07 Feb 1965 Beppu JPN
21 Jun 1940 19 Apr 1965 Boston MA USA
04 Aug 1941 12 Jun 1965 Chiswick ENG
1966
1965
1964
2:12:11.2 (1) Abebe Bikila (ETH)
07 Aug 1932 21 Oct 1964 Tokyo JPN
2:13:55a (1) Benjamin Basil Heatley (ENG)
25 Dec 1933 13 Jun 1964 Chiswick ENG
2:14:12a (2) Ronald Hill (ENG)
25 Sep 1938 13 Jun 1964 Chiswick ENG
2:14:48.2 (1) Toru Terasawa (JPN)
04 Jan 1935 06 Dec 1964 Fukuoka JPN
2:15:26.0a (3) Vaclav Chudomel (CZE)
27 Sep 1932 13 Jun 1964 Chiswick ENG
2:15:37 (1) Juan Edward Taylor (ENG)
30 Oct 1937 27 Jun 1964 Port Talbot WAL
2:15:42 (2) Takayuki Nakao (JPN)
27 Feb 1939 06 Dec 1964 Fukuoka JPN
2:16:18.8 (1) Abebe Bikila- 2
07 Aug 1932 03 Aug 1964 Addis Ababa ETH
2:16:19.2 (2) Mamo Wolde (ETH)
12 Jun 1932 03 Aug 1964 Addis Ababa ETH
2:16:19.2 (2) Benjamin Basil Heatley- 2
25 Dec 1933 21 Oct 1964 Tokyo JPN
1963
2:14:28a (1) Leonard Edelen (USA)
2:14:43 (1) Brian Kilby (GBR)
2:15:09.6 (1) Leonard Edelen-2
Page
54
22 Sep 1937 15 Jun 1963 Chiswick ENG
26 Feb 1938 06 Jul 1963 Port Talbot WAL
22 Sep 1937 13 Oct 1963 Kosice SVK
Predicting a 2 hour marathon 2012
2:15:15.8
2:15:39.4
2:15:57
2:16:19.0
2:16:33.8
2:16:45
2:17:32
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(1)
(6)
Toru Terasawa (JPN)
04 Jan 1935 17 Feb 1963 Beppu JPN
Kazumi Watanabe (JPN)
25 Dec 1935 17 Feb 1963 Beppu JPN
Haruo Otani (JPN)
04 Jan 1938 17 Feb 1963 Beppu JPN
Kenji Kimihara (JPN)
20 Mar 1941 17 Feb 1963 Beppu JPN
Hisakazu Sato (JPN)
07 Oct 1940 17 Feb 1963 Beppu JPN
Brian Kilby-2
26 Feb 1938 17 Aug 1963 Coventry ENG
Hidekuni Hiroshima (JPN)
18 Nov 1937 17 Feb 1963 Beppu JPN
2:16:09.6
2:16:18.4
2:16:53.4
2:18:01.8
2:18:52
2:18:56.8
2:18:57.4
2:19:09.2
2:19:15
2:19:17.8
(1)
(1)
(2)
(3)
(1)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(2)
(1)
Mang-Hyang Yu (PRK)
08 Jan 1942 24 Oct 1962 Pyongyang PRK
Toru Terasawa (JPN)
04 Jan 1935 02 Dec 1962 Fukuoka JPN
Takayuki Nakao (JPN)
27 Feb 1939 02 Dec 1962 Fukuoka JPN
Kenji Kimihara (JPN)
20 Mar 1941 02 Dec 1962 Fukuoka JPN
Takayuki Nakao-2
27 Feb 1939 20 Oct 1962 Auckland NZL
Leonard Edelen (SD/USA)
22 Sep 1937 02 Dec 1962 Fukuoka JPN
Pavel Kantorek (CZE)
08 Feb 1930 02 Dec 1962 Fukuoka JPN
Makoto Nakajima (JPN)
25 Nov 1937 02 Dec 1962 Fukuoka JPN
Toru Terasawa-2
04 Jan 1935 20 Oct 1962 Auckland NZL
Viktor Baykov (RUS)
09 Feb 1935 11 Aug 1962 Moscow RUS
2:18:54.2
2:18:54
2:19:15.8
2:20:12
2:20:25
2:20:58
2:22:05
2:22:18
2:22:19
2:22:45
(1)
(1)
(1)
(1)
(1)
(2)
(1)
(2)
(3)
(2)
Barry Magee (NZL)
06 Feb 1934 04 Mar 1961 Christchurch NZL
Takayuki Nakao (JPN)
27 Feb 1939 21 Mar 1961 Nagoya JPN
Vaclav Chudomel (CZE)
27 Sep 1932 20 Aug 1961 Upice CZE
Abebe Bikila (ETH)
07 Aug 1932 08 Oct 1961 Kosice SVK
Peter Wilkinson (ENG)
27 Jun 1933 10 Jun 1961 Chiswick ENG
Sam Hardicker (GBR)
04 May 1929 10 Jun 1961 Chiswick ENG
Pavel Kantorek (CZE)
08 Feb 1930 03 Dec 1961 Fukuoka JPN
Eino Oksanen (FIN)
07 May 1931 03 Dec 1961 Fukuoka JPN
Nobuyoshi Sadanaga (JPN)
07 Feb 1929 03 Dec 1961 Fukuoka JPN
Kazumi Watanabe (JPN)
25 Dec 1935 21 Mar 1961 Nagoya JPN
2:15:16.2
2:15:41.6
2:17:18.2
2:18:15.6
2:19:04
2:19:06.0
2:19:08.0
2:19:09.6
2:19:18.8
2:19:21
(1)
(2)
(3)
(1)
(1)
(1)
(2)
(4)
(5)
(2)
Abebe Bikila (ETH)
07 Aug 1932 10 Sep 1960 Rome ITA
Abdesselem ben Rhadi (MOR)
28 Feb 1929 10 Sep 1960 Rome ITA
Barry Magee (NZL)
06 Feb 1934 10 Sep 1960 Rome ITA
Dennis O'Gorman (GBR)
22 May 1928 30 Jul 1960 Liverpool ENG
Barry Magee-2
06 Dec 1934 04 Dec 1960 Fukuoka JPN
Arthur Keily (GBR)
18 Mar 1921 11 Jun 1960 Chiswick ENG
Frederick Norris (ENG)
04 Sep 1921 30 Jul 1960 Liverpool ENG
Konstantin Vorobiev (RUS)
30 Oct 1930 10 Sep 1960 Rome ITA
Sergey Popov (RUS)
21 Sep 1930 10 Sep 1960 Rome ITA
Paavo Kotila (FIN)
26 Jul 1927 04 Dec 1960 Fukuoka JPN
1962
1961
1960
Page
55
Predicting a 2 hour marathon 2012
1959
2:17:45.2
2:19:06.0
2:20:13
2:20:37
2:21:54.2
2:21:54.4
2:22:09.8
2:22:42a
2:23:08
2:23:40
( 1) Sergey Popov (RUS)
21 Sep 1930 11 Oct 1959 Košice SVK
( 1) Pavel Kantorek (CZE)
08 Feb 1930 13 Sep 1959 Ostrava CZE
( 1) William Baillie (NZL)
28 May 1934 22 Aug 1959 Owairaka NZL
( 2) Jeff Julian (NZL)
09 Oct 1935 22 Aug 1959 Owairaka NZL
( 1) Sergey Popov-2
21 Sep 1930 14 Aug 1959 Moscow RUS
( 1) John J Kelley (CT/USA)
24 Dec 1930 24 May 1959 Yonkers NY USA
( 2) Miroslav Ciboch (CZE)
25 Dec 1928 13 Sep 1959 Ostrava CZE
( 1) Eino Oksanen (FIN)
07 May 1931 20 Apr 1959 Boston MA USA
( 2) Denis O'Gorman (GBR)
22 May 1928 11 Oct 1959 Košice SVK
( 1) Yoshitaka Tsuiji (JPN)
08 Feb 1959 Beppu JPN
2:15:17.6
2:19:55.6
2:20:06.6
2:20:09
2:20:50.6
2:20:55.6
2:21:15.0
2:21:15.8
2:21:29
2:21:40.0
( 1) Sergey Popov (RUS)
21 Sep 1930 24 Aug 1958 Stockholm SWE
( 1) Tun-Yung Li (CHN)
21 Dec 1958 Tsinan CHN
( 1) Nikolay Rumyantsev (RUS)
31 May 1930 02 Nov 1958 Tbilisi GEO
( 1) Sergey Popov-2
21 Sep 1930 19 Jul 1958 Tallinn EST
( 2) Ivan Filin (RUS)
10 Mar 1926 24 Aug 1958 Stockholm SWE
( 1) Johnny J Kelley (MA/USA)
24 Dec 1930 11 Oct 1958 Jersey City NJ USA
( 3) Frederick Norris (GBR)
04 Sep 1921 24 Aug 1958 Stockholm SWE
( 2) Ivan Filin-2
10 Mar 1926 19 Jul 1958 Tallinn EST
( 1) Chao-hsin Cheng (CHN)
02 Nov 1958 Beijing CHN
( 4) Peter Wilkinson (GBR)
27 Jun 1933 24 Aug 1958 Stockholm SWE
2:19:50
2:20:05a
2:21:23.4
2:21:39
2:21:40
2:22:00
2:22:07.2
2:22:27.8
2:22:29
2:22:30
( 1) Sergey Popov (RUS)
21 Sep 1930 01 Sep 1957 Moscow RUS
( 1) John J Kelley (USA)
24 Dec 1930 20 Apr 1957 Boston MA USA
( 1) Franjo Mihalic (YUG)
09 Mar 1920 04 Aug 1957 Moscow RUS
( 2) Ivan Filin (RUS)
10 Mar 1926 01 Sep 1957 Moscow RUS
( 1) Kurao Hiroshima (JPN)
05 Dec 1928 01 Dec 1957 Fukuoka JPN
( 3) Albert Ivanov (RUS)
01 Sep 1931 01 Sep 1957 Moscow RUS
( 1) Olavi Manninen (FIN)
20 Jul 1928 16 Jun 1957 Vaasa FIN
( 1) Ernest Kirkup (GBR)
12 Jul 1929 10 Aug 1957 Watford ENG
( 2) Paavo Kotila (FIN)
26 Aug 1927 01 Dec 1957 Fukuoka JPN
( 2) Albert Ivanov-2
01 Sep 1931 04 Aug 1957 Moscow RUS
1958
1957
1956
2:18:04.8
2:18:51.0
2:18:56.4
2:19:27.0
2:20:05.2
( 1) Paavo Kotila (FIN)
26 Aug 1927 12 Aug 1956 Pieksämäki FIN
( 2) Eino Oksanen (FIN)
07 May 1931 12 Aug 1956 Pieksämäki FIN
( 3) Veikko Karvonen (FIN)
05 Jan 1926 12 Aug 1956 Pieksämäki FIN
( 4) Eino Pulkkinen (FIN)
07 Nov 1925 12 Aug 1956 Pieksämäki FIN
( 1) Ivan Filin (RUS)
10 Mar 1926 12 Aug 1956 Moscow RUS
Page
56
Predicting a 2 hour marathon 2012
2:20:15.8a ( 1) Ronald Clark (ENG)
2:21:17.8 ( 1) Olavi Manninen (FIN)
2:21:37.2 ( 1) Jan Barnard (RSA)
2:21:44.8 ( 5) Lothar Beckert (GER)
2:21:48.6a ( 2) Frederick Norris (ENG)
09 Mar 1930 16 Jun 1956 Chiswick ENG
20 Jul 1928 17 Jun 1956 Vaasa FIN
21 Oct 1929 06 Oct 1956 Port Elizabeth RSA
26 Jul 1931 12 Aug 1956 Pieksämäki FIN
04 Sep 1921 16 Jun 1956 Chiswick ENG
1955
2:21:21.6
2:21:23.8
2:22:05
2:22:12
2:23:03.4
2:23:09.6
2:23:14
2:23:16
2:23:51
2:24:08
( 1) Veikko Karvonen (FIN)
05 Jan 1926 04 Sep 1955 Copenhagen DEN
( 1) Symen Kuznetsov (RUS)
1928 13 Nov 1955 Tbilisi GEO
( 2) Mikhail Galaktionov (RUS)
1926 13 Nov 1955 Tbilisi GEO
( 1) Keith Ollerenshaw (AUS)
28 Sep 1928 24 Sep 1955 Sydney AUS
( 3) Aleksandr Agrytshkin (RUS)
1927 13 Nov 1955 Tbilisi GEO
( 1) Ivan Filin (RUS)
10 Mar 1926 10 Jul 1955 Moscow RUS
( 4) Ivan Semyonov (RUS)
02 Mar 1924 13 Nov 1955 Tbilisi GEO
( 1) Veikko Karvonen-2
05 Jan 1926 11 Dec 1955 Fukuoka JPN
( 2) Kurao Hiroshima (JPN)
05 Dec 1928 11 Dec 1955 Fukuoka JPN
( 2) Boris Grishayev (RUS)
21 Jun 1930 10 Jul 1955 Moscow RUS
1954
2:17:39.4a ( 1) James Peters (ENG)
24 Oct 1918 26 Jun 1954 Chiswick ENG
2:23:08a ( 2) Stanley Cox (GBR)
15 Jul 1918 26 Jun 1954 Chiswick ENG
2:24:51.6 ( 1) Veikko Karvonen (FIN)
05 Jan 1926 25 Aug 1954 Berne SUI
2:24:55 ( 1) Reinaldo Gorno (ARG)
18 Jun 1918 05 Dec 1954 Kamakura JPN
2:24:55.6 ( 2) Boris Grishayev (RUS)
21 Jun 1930 25 Aug 1954 Berne SUI
2:25:26.6 ( 3) Ivan Filin (RUS)
10 Mar 1926 25 Aug 1954 Berne SUI
2:25:31.8 ( 1) Johannes Barnard (RSA)
21 Oct 1929 11 Apr 1954 Port Elizabeth RSA
2:26:10 ( 2) Veikko Karvonen-2
05 Jan 1926 05 Dec 1954 Kamakura JPN
2:26:41.6 ( 1) Veikko Karvonen-3
05 Jan 1926 03 Oct 1954 Turku FIN
2:26:45.6 ( 4) Erkki Puolakka (FIN)
27 May 1925 25 Aug 1954 Berne SUI
1953
2:18:34.8a ( 1) James Peters (GBR)
24 Oct 1918 04 Oct 1953 Turku FIN
2:18:40.4a ( 1) James Peters-2
24 Oct 1918 13 Jun 1953 Chiswick ENG
2:19:22 ( 1) James Peters-3
24 Oct 1918 12 Sep 1953 Enschede NED
2:22:29 ( 1) James Peters-4
24 Oct 1918 25 Jul 1953 Cardiff WAL
2:24:38 ( 2) Stanley Cox (GBR)
15 Jul 1918 12 Sep 1953 Enschede NED
2:24:48 ( 1) Roland Guy (AUS)
1919 26 Sep 1953 Sydney AUS
2:25:47.0 ( 2) Veikko Karvonen (FIN)
05 Jan 1926 04 Oct 1953 Turku FIN
2:26:00 ( 2) Keith Ollerenshaw (AUS)
28 Sep 1928 26 Sep 1953 Sydney AUS
2:26:19 ( 2) Stanley Cox-2
15 Jul 1918 13 Jun 1953 Chiswick ENG
2:26:39 ( 3) Geoffrey Iden (GBR)
08 Oct 1914 13 Jun 1953 Chiswick ENG
1952
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Predicting a 2 hour marathon 2012
2:20:42.2a ( 1) James Peters (GBR)
24 Oct 1918 14 Jun 1952 Chiswick ENG
2:21:42a ( 2) Stanley Cox (GBR)
15 Jul 1918 14 Jun 1952 Chiswick ENG
2:23:03.2 ( 1) Emil Zatopek (CZE)
19 Sep 1922 27 Jul 1952 Helsinki FIN
2:23:59 ( 1) Vasiliy Davidov (UKR)
25 Aug 1952 Moscow RUS
2:24:15.8 ( 2) Aleksandr Kolupayev (BLR)
25 Aug 1952 Moscow RUS
2:25:19.2 ( 1) Veikko Karvonen (FIN)
05 Jan 1926 05 Oct 1952 Turku FIN
2:25:35 ( 2) Reinaldo Gorno (ARG)
18 Jun 1918 27 Jul 1952 Helsinki FIN
2:26:07 ( 1) Yoon-Chil Choi (KOR)
19 Jul 1928 16 Mar 1952 Pusan KOR
2:26:07 ( 3) Gustaf Jansson (SWE)
05 Jan 1922 27 Jul 1952 Helsinki FIN
2:26:33.8 ( 3) Boris Grishayev (RUS)
21 Jun 1930 25 Aug 1952 Moscow RUS
1951
2:28:07.4
2:28:16
2:28:46.6
2:29:02.0
2:29:19.0
2:29:24a
2:30:13
2:30:21
2:30:40
2:30:43
( 1) Veikko Karvonen (FIN)
( 1) Shigeki Tanaka (JPN)
( 1) Veikko Karvonen-2
( 1) Veikko Karvonen-3
( 2) Gustaf Jansson (SWE)
( 1) James Peters (GBR)
( 1) Hiromi Haigo (JPN)
( 2) Giichi Noda (JPN)
( 3) Yoshitaka Uchikawa (JPN)
( 2) Tadashi Asai (JPN)
05 Oct 1926 03 Aug 1951 Tampere FIN
1932? 04 Feb 1951 Ube JPN
05 Oct 1926 01 Jul 1951 Hameenlinna FIN
05 Oct 1926 01 Sep 1951 Enschede NED
05 Jan 1922 03 Aug 1951 Tampere FIN
24 Oct 1918 16 Jun 1951 Chiswick ENG
1929 09 Dec 1951 Fukuoka JPN
04 Feb 1951 Ube JPN
04 Apr 1931 04 Feb 1951 Ube JPN
09 Dec 1951 Fukuoka JPN
2:29:09.4
2:29:20.8
2:30:47
2:30:47
2:30:50
2:31:00
2:31:03.4
2:31:20.2
2:31:26.0
2:32:13.2
( 1) Feodosiy Vanin (RUS)
25 Feb 1914 15 Jul 1950 Moscow RUS
( 2) Vasily Gordiyenko (UKR)
14 May 1914 15 Jul 1950 Moscow RUS
( 1) Veikko Timonen (FIN)
1915 10 Sep 1950 Vaasa FIN
( 1) Shunji Koyanagi (JPN)
1925 10 Dec 1950 Hiroshima JPN
( 2) Katsuo Nishida (JPN)
24 Jan 1929 10 Dec 1950 Hiroshima JPN
( 3) Hiromi Haigo (JPN)
1929 10 Dec 1950 HiroshimaJPN
( 1) Jack Holden (GBR)
13 Mar 1907 22 Jul 1950 Reading ENG
( 1) Gösta Leandersson (SWE)
22 Apr 1918 29 Oct 1950 Košice SVK
( 3) Yakov Moskachenkov (RUS)
07 Aug 1916 15 Jul 1950 Moscow RUS
( 1) Jack Holden-2
13 Mar 1907 23 Aug 1950 Brussels BEL
2:28:39.4
2:30:46.8
2:31:04.0
2:32:18
2:33:44.2
2:33:45.6
2:33:55
( 1) Salomon Könönen (FIN)
05 Jan 1926 02 Oct 1949 Turku FIN
( 2) Paavo Laine (FIN)
07 Nov 1906 02 Oct 1949 Turku FIN
( 3) Vilho Partanen (FIN)
21 Dec 1919 02 Oct 1949 Turku FIN
( 1) Martti Urpalainen (FIN)
15 Aug 1918 11 Sep 1949 Stockholm SWE
( 4) Aarne Jung (FIN)
13 Nov 1912 02 Oct 1949 Turku FIN
( 1) Martti Urpalainen-2
15 Aug 1918 23 Oct 1949 Košice SVK
( 2) Gösta Leandersson (SWE)
22 Apr 1918 11 Sep 1949 Stockholm SWE
1950
1949
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Predicting a 2 hour marathon 2012
2:34:10.6 ( 1) Jack Holden (GBR)
13 Mar 1907 30 Jul 1949 Birmingham ENG
2:34:16.5 ( 1) Sydney Luyt (RSA)
11 Dec 1925 16 Apr 1949 Queenstown RSA
2:34:49.4 ( 1) Vasiliy Gordiyenko (URS)
1914 19 Jul 1949 Moscow RUS
1948
2:31:02
( 1) Mikko Hietanen (FIN)
2:31:12
( 1) Gösta Leandersson (SWE)
2:31:55
( 1) Feodosiy Vanin (RUS)
2:32:24
( 2) Vasily Gordienko (RUS)
2:32:30
( 1) Johannes Coleman (RSA)
2:33:42
( 2) Gustav Östling (SWE)
2:34:36
( 3) Olle Larsson (SWE)
22 Sep 1911 11 Jul 1948 Vuoksenniska FIN
22 Apr 1918 05 Sep 1948 Karlskoga SWE
25 Feb 1914 26 Jul 1948 Moscow RUS
1914 26 Jul 1948 Moscow RUS
05 Jun 1910 27 Mar 1948 Port Elizabeth RSA
17 Dec 1914 05 Sep 1948 Karlskoga SWE
1914 05 Sep 1948 Karlskoga SWE
2:34:46.4 ( 1) Gösta Leandersson-2
22 Apr 1918 28 Oct 1948 Kosice SVK
2:34:51.6 ( 1) Delfo Cabrera (ARG)
12 Nov 1919 07 Aug 1948 London ENG
2:35:01
22 Mar 1919 25 Sep 1948 Melbourne AUS
( 1) Gordon Stanley (AUS)
1947
2:30:58 ( 1) Mikko Hietanen (FIN)
2:33:20.2 ( 1) Jack Holden (GBR)
2:34:29.4 ( 1) Mustafa Kaplan (TUR)
2:34:47 ( 1) Yoon-Chil Choi (KOR)
2:34:52 ( 1) Risto Vesterlund (FIN)
2:35:26.2 ( 1) Mikko Hietanen-2
2:36:06.6 ( 1) Charles Heirendt (LUX)
2:36:07 ( 2) Thomas Richards (WAL)
2:36:08 ( 2) Olle Larsson (SWE)
2:36:30 ( 1) Roland Guy (AUS)
2:36:33 ( 1) Shinzo Koga (JPN)
22 Sep 1911 07 Sep 1947 Stockholm SWE
13 Mar 1907 23 Aug 1947 Loughborough ENG
1921 13 Apr 1947 Istanbul TUR
19 Jul 1928 18 Oct 1947 KOR
15 Mar 1915 05 Oct 1947 Helsinki FIN
22 Sep 1911 10 Aug 1947 Riihimäki FIN
08 Oct 1911 28 Oct 1947 Kosice SVK
15 Mar 1910 23 Aug 1947 Loughborough ENG
1914 07 Sep 1947 Stockholm SWE
1919 23 Aug 1947 Sydney AUS
02 Nov 1947 Kanazawa JPN
1946
2:31:37 ( 1) Mikko Hietanen (FIN)
22 Sep 1911 21 Jul 1946 Vuoksenniska FIN
2:31:39 ( 1) Mikko Hietanen - 2
22 Sep 1911 21 Aug 1946 Helsinki FIN
2:33:03 ( 2) Väinö Viktor Muinonen (FIN) 30 Dec 1899 21 Jul 1946 Vuoksenniska FIN
2:34:47 ( 3) Jussi Kurikkala (FIN)
12 Aug 1912 21 Jul 1946 Vuoksenniska FIN
2:35:02.4 ( 1) Mikko Hietanen-3
22 Sep 1911 28 Oct 1946 Kosice SVK
2:36:39.4+t ( 1) Jack Holden (ENG)
13 Mar 1907 26 Oct 1946 (White City) London ENG
2:37:00.4 ( 2) Karl Gösta Leandersson (SWE) 22 Apr 1918 28 Oct 1946 Kosice SVK
2:37:35 ( 4) Aarne Jung (FIN)
13 Nov 1912 21 Jul 1946 Vuoksenniska FIN
2:37:40 ( 5) Risto Vesterlund (FIN)
15 Mar 1915 21 Jul 1946 Vuoksenniska FIN
2:38:12a ( 1) Horace Oliver (WAL)
13 Sep 1914 15 Jun 1946 Chiswick ENG
1945
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Predicting a 2 hour marathon 2012
2:36:37.6
2:37:14
2:40:27.8
2:41:21
2:41:25.5
2:43:07
2:43:21
2:45:22
2:45:55
2:46:03
( 1) Sven Hakansson (SWE)
( 1) Charles Robbins (USA)
( 2) Johnny A Kelley (USA)
( 1) Onni Kuivalainen (FIN)
( 3) Robert Rankine (CAN)
( 2) Enver Bedredin (FIN)
( 1) Mikko Hietanen (FIN)
( 2) Paavo Laine (FIN)
( 1) Brendan Doyle (AUS)
( 2) Shoore Johnson (SWE)
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14 Nov 1909 28 Oct 1945 Göteborg SWE
13 Sep 1920 11 Nov 1945 Yonkers NY USA
06 Sep 1907 11 Nov 1945 Yonkers NY USA
31 Jan 1916 26 Aug 1945 Helsinki FIN
06 Jan 1909 11 Nov 1945 Yonkers NY USA
13 Nov 1914 26 Aug 1945 Helsinki FIN
22 Sep 1911 12 Aug 1945 Turku FIN
07 Nov 1906 12 Aug 1945 Turku FIN
01 Sep 1945 Botany AUS
21 Nov 1902 28 Oct 1945 Göteborg SWE
Predicting a 2 hour marathon 2012
Appendix 2
(Wikepedia)
Men’s all time top 10 fastest marathon time
Time
Time(decimal) Athlete
02:03:38
123.63 Patrick Makau
02:03:42
123.70 Wilson Kipsang
Haile
02:03:59
123.98 Gebrselassie
02:04:23
124.38 Ayele Abshero
02:04:27
124.45 Duncan Kibet
James
02:04:27
124.45 Kwambai
Emmanuel
02:04:40
124.67 Mutai
Dino Sefir
02:04:50
124.83 Kemal
02:04:54
124.90 Markos Geneti
02:04:55
124.92 Paul Tergat
Country
Kenya
Kenya
Date
Location
25-Sep-11 Berlin
30-Oct-11 Frankfurt
year
2011
2011
Ethiopia 28-Sep-08 Berlin
Ethiopia 27-Jan-12 Dubai
Kenya
05-Apr-09 Rotterdam
2012
2009
2009
Kenya
05-Apr-09 Rotterdam
2011
Kenya
17-Apr-11 London
2012
Ethiopia 27-Jan-12 Dubai
Ethiopia 27-Jan-12 Dubai
Kenya
28-Sep-03 Berlin
2012
2012
2003
Women’s all time top 10 fastest marathon time
Time
02:15:25
Time(Decimal)
Athlete
Country
United
Kingdom
Date
Location
13-Apr03 London
Russia
09-Oct-11
Chicago
2011
Kenya
07-Oct-01
25-Sep05
17-Apr11
28-Sep08
Chicago
2001
Berlin
2005
London
2011
Berlin
2008
27-Jan-12
27-Jan-12
23-Apr06
19-Oct-03
Dubai
Dubai
2012
2012
London
Beijing
2006
2003
02:18:47
135.42 Paula Radcliffe
Liliya
138.33 Shobukhova
Catherine
138.78 Ndereba
02:19:12
139.20 Mizuki Noguchi
Japan
02:19:19
139.32 Mary Keitany
Kenya
02:19:19
Germany
02:19:31
02:19:34
139.32 Irina Mikitenko
Aselefech
139.52 Mergia
139.57 Lucy Kabuu
02:19:36
02:19:39
139.60 Deena Kastor
139.65 Sun Yingjie
United States
China
02:18:20
Ethiopia
Kenya
Page
61
year
2003
Predicting a 2 hour marathon 2012
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