When Frontrunners Emerge
By Lydia Saad
Between 1952 and 1996 seventeen open races were waged for
the presidential nomination of the two major parties. Nine of
these were on the Democratic side, eight on the Republican
side. This year adds two such contests to the list.
for president, it will be one of the rare times in which both
open-seat candidates emerged as national frontrunners well in
advance of the election year. In each previous election where
there was an open race in both parties—1960, 1968 and
1988—at least one side ran a competitive campaign to select
its nominee.
If George Bush is upset by John McCain it will be the first time
in modern polling history that the GOP’s early choice did not
proceed to victory at the convention. If Al Gore is upset by Bill
Bradley, it won’t be the first time that a strong Democratic
frontrunner succumbed late in the game, but it would be the
most dramatic example of such a loss.
A review of Gallup primary election polls from 1952 through
1996 finds that the most common scenario has been for the
eventual Republican nominee to solidify his leading position
early, and for the Democratic nominee to emerge relatively
late, usually through the primary process.
One thing is clear from Gallup’s last half-century of primary
polling: If Gore and Bush ultimately become the nominees
Lydia Saad is managing editor, the Gallup Poll.
The Democratic Primary Races
Only a few times in modern election history has a clear
Democratic frontrunner emerged prior to the start of the
primary season. The two exceptions were Adlai Stevenson,
running for his second consecutive election in 1956, and
Walter Mondale, running in 1984 four years after having
served as Jimmy Carter’s vice president. In each of the other
seven cases of an open Democratic race, the eventual nominee
was hardly obvious entering the year of the election. Although Stevenson was nominated by the Democratic convention in 1952, he never did particularly well among Democrats
nationally in Gallup’s pre-convention polls that year. In the
1960 election, Senator John F. Kennedy did not emerge from
the Democratic pack until February. Similarly, Hubert
Humphrey in 1968, George McGovern in 1972, Jimmy
Carter in 1976, Michael Dukakis in 1988 and Bill Clinton in
1992 were all late bloomers, not leading the field until
somewhere between January and June of the election year.
Beginning with 1960, and with the 1964, 1980 and 1996
Democratic incumbent years excluded, here is an overview of
when the eventual Democratic nominee in each election
emerged as a party frontrunner.
1960
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
41%
29%
25%
10%
7%
1/59
Democratic Primary Candidates
John Kennedy
25%
Adlai Stevenson
16%
Estes Kefauver
10%
Lyndon Johnson
2/60
7/60
From January 1959 through the end of that year, Gallup polls recorded John Kennedy and Adlai Stevenson in a tight race for the Democratic
nomination, running within four points of each other. In February 1960, Kennedy finally pulled ahead, steadily expanding his lead through the
primary season.
10 Public Perspective, March/April 2000
1968
60%
50%
53%
43%
40%
30%
37%
34%
Eugene McCarthy
20%
23%
Lyndon Johnson
8%
10%
0%
39%
31%
Democratic Primary Candidates
Hubert Humphrey
Robert Kennedy
4/68
1/67
7/68
Hubert Humphrey ran in single digits behind President Lyndon Johnson and Robert Kennedy in Gallup polls conducted in 1967. By April 1968,
Gallup recorded a close three-way race between Humphrey, Kennedy, and Eugene McCarthy, with Kennedy slightly ahead. It wasn’t until May
that Humphrey took the lead for good.
1972
60%
Democratic Primary Candidates
George McGovern
50%
40%
30%
26%
25%
32%
29%
27%
22%
20%
10%
15%
21%
5%
17%
Hubert Humphrey
Edward Kennedy
Edmund Muskie
George Wallace
0%
1/71
7/72
Gallup polls throughout 1971 showed George McGovern in single digits behind Edmund Muskie, Edward Kennedy and Hubert Humphrey, with
Muskie the presumed frontrunner. McGovern did not become a national force in the Democratic field until the primaries were well underway,
and he did not take the lead until June.
1976
60%
53%
50%
Democratic Primary Candidates
36%
40%
30%
22%
Jimmy Carter
29%
Hubert Humphrey
20%
14%
16%
10%
4%
0%
1/75
1/76
6%
Edward Kennedy
George Wallace
7/76
Carter was non-existent in Gallup’s 1975 pre-primary polls of Democrats. When Carter entered the fray in January 1976, he garnered 4% of the
vote, behind Humphrey, who was in the lead with 29%. Carter’s “peanut brigade” in Iowa earned him national attention and a jump to 16% by
February, but he did not take the lead in Gallup’s polls of Democrats until June.
Public Perspective, March/April 2000 11
1984
60%
50%
48%
40%
37%
35%
30%
20%
20%
10%
7%
2%
0%
1/83
Democratic Primary Candidates
Walter Mondale
Gary Hart
Jesse Jackson
7%
1/84
6%
John Glenn
7/84
Walter Mondale began the 1984 election year as the clear frontrunner, holding a 17-point lead over John Glenn in January. By March, Gary Hart
was besting Mondale, but Mondale managed to hold on and emerged from the primaries in June with a 13-point lead over Hart.
60%
1988
53%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
Democratic Primary Candidates
Michael Dukakis
32%
21%
23%
3%
1%
12%
10%
Jesse Jackson
Gary Hart
Richard Gephardt
0%
2/88
1/87
7/88
Michael Dukakis trailed frontrunner Gary Hart through the first half of 1987, until Hart’s campaign came to an end over the “Monkey Business”
affair. At that point Dukakis rose to the middle of the pack and finally took the lead from his chief rival, Jesse Jackson, in February 1988.
1992
60%
54%
50%
40%
30%
33%
24%
20%
10%
0%
Democratic Primary Candidates
Bill Clinton
Lloyd Bentsen
23%
18%
18%
4%
11%
1/91
Paul Tsongas
Al Gore
Mario Cuomo
Jesse Jackson
Jerry Brown
1/92
7/92
Bill Clinton proved to be a single-digit wonder, emerging in January 1992 in second place behind Jerry Brown, after a year of holding last or nearly
last place among potential candidates Mario Cuomo, Jesse Jackson, Lloyd Bentsen, and Al Gore. Clinton became the frontrunner in February
1992.
12 Public Perspective, March/April 2000
The Republican Party Races
In all eight competitive Republican races, the eventual nominee emerged early, and in most cases held that position
consistently through the pre-primary and primary months.
This included Dwight Eisenhower in 1952, Richard Nixon in
1960, Nixon again in 1968, Gerald Ford in 1976, Ronald
Reagan in 1980, George Bush in 1988, and Robert Dole in
1996. It also included Barry Goldwater in the 1964 election,
as he led rivals Nelson Rockefeller and George Romney for
most of 1963. However, Goldwater languished in the national
polls during the turbulent 1964 Republican primary season
and had to fight for the nomination all the way to the
convention.
nomination on the first ballot at the 1968 convention.
Similarly, few in March 2000 would say that George W. Bush
doesn’t face a potential upset from John McCain with his
double-digit victory in New Hampshire. But the fact remains
that in every election since 1952, the Republican presidential
nominee was a leading contender almost a full year before the
start of the primary season.
The historical record may have little predictive value, but if
George W. Bush is not the Republican Party’s nominee in
2000, it will be the first time since at least 1952 that someone
other than an early election frontrunner did not capture the
GOP nomination. Beginning with 1960 and excluding the
Republican presidential re-election years of 1972, 1984 and
1992, here is an overview of when Republican frontrunners
emerged.
None of this is to say that significant challenges or even
dramatic upsets weren’t real possibilities. In particular, Reagan
and Bush both had to stave off strong challenges in the early
primary states, and Nixon came very close to losing his
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1960
75%
56%
Republican Primary Candidates
Richard Nixon
27%
Henry Cabot Lodge
6%
6%
1/59
12%
Nelson Rockefeller
7/60
When Richard Nixon ran for the Republican nomination in 1960, he did so as the sitting vice president. Nelson Rockefeller and Henry Cabot
Lodge (who never announced candidacies) proved to be weak rivals, and Nixon maintained a double-digit lead throughout the campaign.
1964
60%
Republican Primary Candidates
Henry Cabot Lodge
49%
50%
Richard Nixon
40%
29%
30%
17%
20%
10%
0%
19%
13%
1/63
16%
5/63
26%
25%
21%
10%
Nelson Rockefeller
Barry Goldwater
George Romney
7/64
Barry Goldwater had a tumultuous candidacy through the primary season and into the Republican National Convention. While Goldwater was
the Republican frontrunner starting as early as May 1963, his lead slid significantly in 1964 when Lodge scored a stunning write-in win in New
Hampshire. But he continued to lead his chief rival Nelson Rockefeller through the late primary months leading up to the 1964 convention.
Public Perspective, March/April 2000 13
1968
60%
60%
50%
40%
30%
Republican Primary Candidates
Richard Nixon
39%
28%
23%
20%
10%
Nelson Rockefeller
11%
8%
0%
George Romney
11%
13%
Ronald Reagan
7/68
1/67
When Richard Nixon returned from political retirement in 1967 to seek the Republican nomination, he immediately became the frontrunner.
Gallup polls taken in January 1967, 22 months before the general election, showed Nixon beating George Romney and Nelson Rockefeller by solid
margins.
1976
60%
50%
50%
40%
43%
34%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Republican Primary Candidates
Gerald Ford
Ronald Reagan
22%
17%
10%
Barry Goldwater
9%
5%
Nelson Rockefeller
1/75
7/76
Although Gerald Ford ran in 1976 as the sitting president, the unique circumstances which put him there and the serious challenge he faced from
Ronald Reagan made this presidential incumbent year a truly competitive one. Nevertheless, Ford was the odds-on favorite from the earliest Gallup
primary polls, and led Reagan in nearly every Republican trial heat thereafter.
1980
60%
Republican Primary Candidates
Ronald Reagan
50%
40%
44%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Gerald Ford
31%
26%
12%
8%
2/79
9%
25%
Howard Baker
16%
John Connally
7%
George Bush
7/80
Ronald Reagan’s 1976 campaign efforts paid dividends in 1979 as he emerged as the frontrunner for the 1980 Republican nomination. Reagan
led the field in Gallup’s first primary trial heat, conducted in February 1979. Although Bush came the closest to actually toppling Reagan in the
early primaries, Reagan’s closest competition in national polls came from Gerald Ford, who never actually entered the race.
14 Public Perspective, March/April 2000
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Republican Primary Candidates
George Bush
1988
69%
Bob Dole
49%
Jack Kemp
27%
13%
22%
Alexander Haig
5%
Pat Robertson
7/88
1/87
Not unlike Al Gore today, vice president George Bush enjoyed frontrunner status for his party’s nomination throughout 1987 and 1988. Similarly,
Bush was also dogged by a strong second-place showing—Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole.
1996
60%
50%
40%
Republican Primary Candidates
Bob Dole
57%
38%
Steve Forbes
30%
Pat Buchanan
20%
18%
7%
10%
0%
Phil Gramm
13%
Lamar Alexander
1/95
7/96
Bob Dole emerged in February 1995 as the Republican frontrunner. At the time he ran well ahead of rivals Phil Gramm, Lamar Alexander and
Pat Buchanan, and he continued to do so throughout the year. Except for the Buchanan upset in New Hampshire, Dole ran into little trouble
on his way to the Republican convention.
Some context and caveats are worth mentioning with respect
to the data presented here. One is the electoral transformation in the 1970s which increased the influence of party
primaries. The national primary polls taken in earlier years
may not be as indicative of candidate strength or have the
same political import as those conducted more recently.
Secondly, trends based on public opinion at the national level
occasionally obscure political battles that were occurring
behind the scenes or at the state level. Many an Iowa caucus
or New Hampshire primary has thrown a curve ball at
frontrunners over the years and created more lively contests
than the relatively flat line graphs may indicate. Thirdly, not
all candidates for all years are shown in the summary trends
here. In some cases an editorial judgement was made to
exclude a particular candidate because his or her support level
was low, or because the measurements for the candidate were
infrequent. In a few cases—such as Hubert Humphrey in
1960— there is no record in Gallup polls of an important
candidate’s name being included in primary trial heats. Thus,
the picture we have for some years may be incomplete.
Despite these limitations, many useful insights are gleaned
from this compilation. At the most basic level, it clarifies the
various patterns of public support candidates have garnered
on the way to winning their party’s nomination. It helps
confirm our understanding of when particular nominees
emerged as serious candidates. And it simplifies the process of
bringing historical data to bear on such questions as, “Can
John McCain beat George Bush?” “Can Al Gore lose to Bill
Bradley?”, which pollsters are flooded with at this time of year.
Answering such questions may not be wise, but the foolhardy
should at least be armed with data.
Public Perspective, March/April 2000 15