PAGE 8
Friday, August 26, 2005
DAILY RACING FORM
Daily Racing Form Online: www.drf.com
Beyer figs get human touch
Dick
JERARDI
PHILADELPHIA – When Western Playboy
won the 19 8 9 Pennsylvania Derby by 17
lengths and ran the 1 1/8 miles in 1:47.60, the
Beyer Speed Figure computed to something
like a 135. Going into that year’s now legendary Breeders’ Cup Classic, featuring the
showdown between Sunday Silence and Easy
Goer, Western Playboy was going to have the
top Beyer.
But something simply was wrong with that.
The time and the subsequent figure made no
sense. It simply could not be. One computergenerated service had Western Playboy with
the top figure.
The Beyer Fig team tried to make sense of it
and “projected” the figure to something that
seemed more in touch with reality. Easy Goer
regularly ran in the 120 range. Sunday Silence
did that only when it was necessary for him to
win. My memory is that Western Playboy’s
projected figure was something like 110. Did
we know that was right? No. It just seemed to
make the most sense.
As Sunday Silence and Easy Goer staged
their epic stretch run, Western Playboy, sent
off at 16-1, was passing Mi Selecto to finish seventh, almost 15 lengths behind the top two.
One of the strengths of the Beyers is that
there is a human being who examines every
one of them. Some days are perfectly straightforward. Every race falls into line and there
are no questions. Then, there was June 17 at
Belmont Park.
The day was what we call 13 Beyer points
fast or –13. To get the proper figure for each
race, the figure-maker had to subtract 13 points
from the raw number (which equates to the
actual time of each race).
Each race seemed to fit nicely into line –
except the third. It was a race for 2-year-old New
York-bred maidens. The time (57.23 seconds for
five furlongs) equated to a 110 raw number on
the scale. After subtracting the 13 points, the
actual figure was 97. First-time starter Classic
Pack had defeated fellow firster Mr. Sam I Am
by a head, so both horses earned a 97.
Was it possible for two New York-bred maidens to get such a big figure? Yes. Was it likely
that these two horses could earn a figure that
would make them among the fastest 2-year-olds
in the country? Not really, but you could not
truly know because there was no context.
In the Western Playboy example, he had a
context. These horses did not.
So Mark Hopkins, who does the New York
figures, entered the 97 into the database and
put a question mark next to the figure. Absent
any compelling evidence, Hopkins went with
the data.
“When it’s not certain, we try to put a number down that has the best chance of being
right,” Hopkins said.
When Mr. Sam I Am ran back in a statebred
maiden race on Aug. 1 at Saratoga, his 97 towered over the field. He was an odds-on favorite.
He dueled for the lead and finished fifth, earning a 47.
Hopkins adjusted the original figure downward to an 83. When Classic Pack appeared in
an open allowance at the Spa on Aug. 7, he
went off at 22-1 and finished last, getting a 62
Beyer.
Clearly, the first number turned out to be
incorrect, but there simply was no way to
know that at the time. Perhaps, the two dueling
maidens knocked each other out. Thus, their
subsequently poor races were a result of that.
Perhaps the timer malfunctioned. Perhaps
there is simply no explanation.
One of the strengths of the figures is that a
human being puts a red flag next to a questionable number and, as soon as a horse from the
race in question runs back, that number is
reviewed. When the original figure proves to
be wrong, it is changed. It does not happen
often, but it does happen.
Consider that thousands and thousands of
figures are put into the database every year.
The percentage of figures that need to be
changed is tiny, but figure-making is art based
on mathematics. It is very rare that a figure
has to be changed by 14 points. Usually, the
change is a few points, up or down. Most of the
time, the math is straightforward. Then, there
are races like the third at Belmont on June 17.
When Lost in the Fog ran out of the TV picture in his second lifetime start, the day after
Christmas at Turf Paradise, the data strongly
indicated the colt had earned a 109 Beyer. Was
it possible that the fastest 2-year-old in America
was a son of Lost Soldier training in northern
California? Sure. Was it likely? Not really.
But the math was the math. That was the figure. It was entered into the database.
Days later, I wrote a column extolling the
virtues of Lost in the Fog, explaining why the
Beyer certainly seemed real. So, before even
serious racing fans had heard of this colt, Daily
Racing Form readers had a hint that a horse of
rare speed and talent was emerging onto the
scene.
Cherokee’s Boy seeks three-peat
By MIKE FARRELL
OCEANPORT, N.J. – Cherokee’s Boy goes for
a Monmouth Park hat trick – three consecutive
stakes victories here – in the Grade 3, $250,000
Philip H. Iselin Breeders’ Cup Handicap on
Sunday.
That string of success has earned him the
role of likely starting highweight at 118 pounds
for the 1 1/8 miles stakes.
Cherokee’s Boy is in the
midst of an outstanding season with 4 wins in 6 starts,
including three consecutive
stakes victories.
“He has stepped up to the
challenge,” said trainer Gary Capuano. “Now
he gets one more.”
The streak started with the Brandywine
Handicap at Delaware Park before shifting to
Monmouth for the Skip Away Stakes and the
Grade 3 Salvator Mile.
“He’s pretty adaptable,” said Capuano. “He’s
run well on every track. He’s got speed, which
really helps at Monmouth. He’s run two big
races there.”
In all three starts, Cherokee’s Boy used his
early speed to excellent tactical advantage, running no worse than second at any call.
That speed is also evident in the morning
when Cherokee’s Boy usually earns the bullet
work when he breezes.
He has had two works at Delaware Park
since the Salvator win on July 24 and both
were fastest at the distance on that morning.
He went four furlongs in 4 7 seconds on
Aug. 7 and followed that with a five-furlong
drill in 59.20 seconds on Aug. 14.
“He does it well within himself,” Capuano
BILL DENVER/HORSEPHOTOS
Cherokee’s Boy wins the Salvator Mile, his
second consecutive stakes win at Monmouth.
said. “He’s pretty much a push-button horse.
You just get him running and from there he
does everything on his own.”
Other probable Iselin runners include
Presidentialaffair, last year’s Iselin runner-up;
the Irish-bred Billy Allen; and Cointreau.
Trainers Todd Pletcher and Nick Zito have
multiple nominees in the race. Pletcher can
pick from Purge, Navesink River, Colita, West
Virginia, and Shaniko.
Zito nominated Commentator, winner of the
Grade 1 Whitney Handicap at Saratoga, along
with Sir Shackleton, Royal Assault, Go Now,
Confirmed, and Dwango.
French-raced River Bride adds intrigue
River Bride makes her U.S. debut Friday in
the $39,000 allowance feature for fillies and
mares. The mile and 70-yard allowance drew
nine entrants with River Bride the most
intriguing. The 3-year-old filly has a record of
1-2-0 in 7 starts, all turf races in France.
She switches to the main track and adds
Lasix for trainer Christophe Clement.
Chasing Yield is another 3-year-old in the
race. She won her maiden last time out at
Monmouth going six furlongs and will try to
show that same ability around two turns for
trainer Mark Hennig.
Turf course adjustments
Monmouth will offer turf racing only on the
weekends for the short time the course
remains open.
The chewed-up course will be torn up and
replaced after Labor Day in preparation for the
2007 Breeders’ Cup.
Until then, the track will try to eke out a few
more grass races. The race office will card two
on both Saturdays and Sundays.
In an effort to find better ground, the temporary turf rail has been moved 30 feet out from
the hedge. That position narrows the course
considerably and forces management to limit
grass fields to eight horses.
All five-furlong turf sprints, including the
$55,000 Incredible Revenge Stakes for fillies
and mares on Saturday, will move to the main
track at the same distance.
❏ Jockey Alan Garcia will return Saturday,
agent Bruce Golub said. Garcia has been sidelined with a fractured clavicle suffered in a
spill on July 24 at Monmouth.
❏ James Musto, 75, died Monday after a long
illness. He owned Jimmy’s Turf Clothes &
Accessories on the Monmouth backstretch
since 1975. His son, Mike Musto, is the executive director of the New Jersey Thoroughbred
Horsemen’s Association.
Purse boost
for fall meet
By CHUCK DYBDAL
SAN MATEO, Calif. – The Bay Meadows
fall meeting opens Friday with higher
purses for the track’s meat-and-potatoes
races, the $4,000 to $16,000 claimers. The
33-day meeting runs through Oct. 16.
The purses for open races at the $4,000
level will be $10,500; for $6,250 claimers,
$12,000; for $12,500 claimers, $16,000; and for
$16,000 claimers, $20,000. Maiden and
allowance races also received purse bumps.
Average daily purses for the meet will be
$140,000 for cards of eight or nine races.
Bay Meadows racing secretary Tom
Doutrich is hoping the higher purses will
prompt new owners to race horses at Bay
Meadows and established owners to expand
their string. “We want to keep the people
who stable here – who run here week to
week, day to day – in business,” he said.
“I think this is the best-balanced purse
structure we’ve had here.”
Doutrich also thinks field size will be up
over last year, and there’s reason to
believe he’s right. The meet is shorter this
year by 16 days, there are 200 more horses
on the grounds, and there is no State Fair
overlap and a minimum overlap with
Fresno in October.
The minimum purse for stakes has been
increased, from $55,000 to a $60,000. Three
$100,000 stakes are among the 11 stakes on
the schedule, including three stakes on the
Labor Day weekend.
The meet’s lone graded race, the Grade
3, $125,000 Bay Meadows Breeders’ Cup
Handicap, will be run Saturday, Oct. 1.
Two $100,000 Cal-bred turf stakes are
scheduled, the California Turf Championship at one mile on Labor Day and the fivefurlong California Turf Sprint Championship on Sept. 24.
Continuing a popular program initiated
at the winter-spring meeting, a three-race
starter allowance series will be run on the
turf. To be eligible for the series, a horse
must have run for $6,250 or less for the
current owner. The base purse for each
race is $12,500 and there will be $20,000 in
bonus money awarded at the end of the
series: $10,000 for first, $5,000 for second,
$3,000 for third and $2,000 for fourth. The
bonus money will be distributed according
to a point system based on a horse’s finish
in each race. The races are scheduled for
Sept. 4 (one mile), Sept. 21 (1 1/8 miles), and
Oct. 10 (1 3/8 miles).
At a glance: Bay Meadows
❏ RACING SCHEDULE: 33 days – Aug. 26-Oct. 16:
Dark Tuesdays; dark Mondays except for Sept. 5 and Oct.
10; dark the first Wednesday and Thursday of the meet
(Aug. 31 and Sept. 1) and the last two Wednesdays and
Thursdays (Oct. 5-6 and 12-13); dark Thursday, Sept. 8.
❏ POST TIME: 1:45 p.m. (Aug. 26-Sept. 7), 1:15 p.m.
(Sept. 10-25), 12:45 p.m. (Sept. 28-Oct. 16), 7 p.m. Fridays
(Sept. 9, 16, 23, 30, Oct. 7, 14)
❏ HIGHLIGHTS: Sept. 5 $100,000 California Turf
Championship; Sept. 24 California Turf Sprint Championship;
Oct. 2 $125,000 Grade 3 Bay Meadows B.C. Handicap
❏ ADMISSIONS: Grandstand $3; Clubhouse $6; Turf Club
$10 weekdays, $15 weekends (including Friday) and holidays
❏ PARKING: $4 general, $7 valet
❏ LOCATION: 2600 S. Delaware St. San Mateo, CA
❏ SIMULCASTING: Daily except Tuesday.
❏ PHONE: (650) 574-7223
❏ INTERNET: www.baymeadows.com