2016:International
Year of Pulses
A look at the Roots, Recent Times and Prospects
of Pulses
Chris Ferris
Senior Grains Analyst, Canada
Outline
‣ Roots
‣ Recent: Global Trade
‣ Recent: Canada
‣ Pulse Organizations
‣ Prospects
2
Informa Economics IEG | Agribusiness Intelligence
Roots
3
Informa Economics IEG | Agribusiness Intelligence
Brief History of Pulses
‣While wheat, coarse grains have been dominant food crops in the
West for thousands of years, and
‣Wheat, coarse grains and oilseeds have dominated the seeded
area in many of the major exporters for the last 100 years,
‣Many forget that pulses have been part of the human diet for
thousands of years too.
‣Some estimate that that humans have been growing and eating
pulses for more than 11,000 years.
‣Pulses have a rich and colorful history of nourishing cultures all
over the world.
‣Some examples follow
Source: http://pulses.org/what-are-pulses/a-brief-history-of-pulses
4
Informa Economics IEG | Agribusiness Intelligence
Selected Ancient Examples
‣8th Century BC:
• Beans and chickpeas were mentioned in Homer’s Iliad
‣7th Century BC:
• Evidence exists of cultivation of lentils, chickpeas, broad/faba
beans and peas in the Fertile Crescent
‣…
‣1st Century AD:
• black-eyed beans/peas spread from West Africa to the
Mediterranean, Asia and India
Source: http://pulses.org/what-are-pulses/a-brief-history-of-pulses
5
Informa Economics IEG | Agribusiness Intelligence
More recent examples
‣17th & 18th Centuries AD:
• Fur traders were fuelled by yellow peas soup in Canada and the
USA
‣…
‣20th/21st Century AD:
• global pulse production reached nearly 70 MMT in 2010,
doubling in about 30 years.
Source: http://pulses.org/what-are-pulses/a-brief-history-of-pulses
6
Informa Economics IEG | Agribusiness Intelligence
Recent:
Global Trade
7
Informa Economics IEG | Agribusiness Intelligence
Global Trade Matrix for Peas
3,000,000
‣ Over the last
three years,
‣ India and China
are the main
destinations
‣ Canada is the
dominant
exporter
2,000,000
Pea Trade Tonnage
‣ the vast
majority of
peas are being
imported into
Asia, with the
key origin being
North America.
2,500,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
Canada 2013-14
ROW 2013-14
Asia
8
Informa Economics IEG | Agribusiness Intelligence
Canada 2014-15
Europe & FSU
HS Code 071310
ROW 2014-15
Africa & ME
Canada 2015-16
WH & Oceania
ROW 2015-16
Global Trade Matrix for Lentils
1,800,000
1,600,000
‣ Lentil trade is more
spread out, with
1,400,000
 the Middle East,
 South America, and
 Africa having
significant imports.
 Canada again
dominates the trade
in lentils
Lentil Trade Tonnage
 Asia,
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
Canada 2013-14 ROW 2013-14 Canada 2014-15 ROW 2014-15 Canada 2015-16 ROW 2015-16
Asia
9
Informa Economics IEG | Agribusiness Intelligence
Middle East
South America
HS Code 071340
Africa
NA & CA & Antilles
Other
Recent:
Canada
10 Informa Economics IEG | Agribusiness Intelligence
Canadian Pulse Growing Regions
Source: http://www.pulsecanada.com/canadas-growing-regions
11
Informa Economics IEG | Agribusiness Intelligence
16%
30,000
14%
12%
25,000
10%
20,000
8%
15,000
6%
10,000
4%
12 Informa Economics IEG | Agribusiness Intelligence
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
0%
2003
0
2002
2%
2001
5,000
Share Seeded to Pulses
35,000
2000
Seeded Area (KHA) by crop category
Canada’s Seeded Area (KHA) and Pulse Share (%)
Specialty Crops
Pulses
Coarse Grains
Oilseeds
Wheat
Pulse Share
Seeded Area of Pulses (KHA)
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
13 Informa Economics IEG | Agribusiness Intelligence
Fababeans
Chick peas
Edible Beans
Lentils
Peas, dry
Make up of Pulse Seeded area by crop type
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
14 Informa Economics IEG | Agribusiness Intelligence
Fababeans
Chick peas
Edible Beans
Lentils
Peas, dry
Pea Seeded Area to Last Year’s SK Avg Yellow Pea Price
correlation is 51%
12
1800
10
Pea Seeded Area
1600
1400
8
1200
1000
6
800
4
600
400
2
200
0
0
Seed Area peas
15 Informa Economics IEG | Agribusiness Intelligence
P(t-1) yellow Peas
SK SK Yellow Pea Price (CAD/bu)
2000
Lentil Seeded Area to Last Year’s SK Avg Red Lentil Price
correlation is 75 percent
45.0
Lentil Seeded Area
40.0
2000
35.0
30.0
1500
25.0
20.0
1000
15.0
10.0
500
5.0
0
0.0
Seed Area Lentils
16 Informa Economics IEG | Agribusiness Intelligence
P(t-1) red lentils
SK Red Lentil Price (CAD/cwt)
2500
Pulse
Organizations
17 Informa Economics IEG | Agribusiness Intelligence
It did not happen by accident
• Canada’s growth as a producer and exporter of pulses was not just a
happy accident.
• Like many other crops, producers and merchants and others in the pulse
industry increasingly got together to invest in
•
•
•
•
•
•
better seeds and Agronomic practices (grower organizations)
Expanding market demand (Pulse Canada)
Opening up markets (Pulse Canada)
Expanding use of pulses (CIGI in partnership with pulse industry)
And Working with international pulse organizations
Along with improving grain logistics
18 Informa Economics IEG | Agribusiness Intelligence
Main Canadian Pulse Organizations
19 Informa Economics IEG | Agribusiness Intelligence
Prospects
20 Informa Economics IEG | Agribusiness Intelligence
Future of Pulses: Supply Side
Crop breeders:
‣continue to work with farmers and others in the supply chain to develop
better crop varieties with better yields, resist diseases better, and with better
quality specs.
Farmers:
‣So long as strong relative price signals are given and the crop yields well
with good quality, export oriented farmers will maintain/expand their seeded
area of pulses and production will grow with yield expansion.
Grain Merchants:
‣Pulse merchants continue to grow in sophistication and reach, able to
deliver all over the world, via containers or bulk vessels.
21 Informa Economics IEG | Agribusiness Intelligence
Future of Pulses: Demand Side
Pulse Processors:
‣Pulse processors continue to grow in their reach, sophistication with some
international firms and alliances forming and deepening. They represent a
major exporting force as well, with much of their product moving by
container.
Food/Feed processors:
‣Are rapidly expanding beyond the traditional pulse products and are
including various pulse products in their animal and human food products.
‣Major food processors have bought into pulses in a big way, and are now
offering pulse products on a larger scale, with great inclusion of a variety of
pulse fractions that used to be reserved for soybeans, wheat or corn.
22 Informa Economics IEG | Agribusiness Intelligence
Future of Pulses: Demand Side
Food Demand:
‣The growth in human populations continues to increase the demand for
protein.
‣Pulses are also being consumed by people who traditionally would not eat
as much pulses in their diets.
‣Hundreds, if not thousands, of new products are now including pulses
where they would not have been before.
23 Informa Economics IEG | Agribusiness Intelligence
2016: International Year of the Pulses
http://www.cicilsiptic.org/index.php
http://www.pulsecanada.com/
http://iyp2016.org/
Via the Global Pulse Confederation, Canada and
many other countries launched the bid to get 2016
declared the IYOP by the UN.
24 Informa Economics IEG | Agribusiness Intelligence
25 Informa Economics IEG | Agribusiness Intelligence
Questions?
Informa Economics IEG
775 Ridge Lake Blvd
Suite 400
Memphis, TN 38120
T
E
W
+1 901 202 4600
[email protected]
www.agribusinessintelligence.com