Ecosystems (2005) 8: 301–317 DOI: 10.1007/s10021-002-0270-x Landscape-scale Variation in Taxonomic Diversity in Four Groups of Aquatic Organisms: The Influence of Physical, Chemical, and Biological Properties Thomas R. Hrabik,* Ben K. Greenfield, David B. Lewis, Amina I. Pollard, Karen A. Wilson, and Timothy K. Kratz Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin–Madison, 680 N. Park St., Madison, Wisconsin, 53706, USA ABSTRACT of organisms showed stronger and steeper species– area relationships in low-conductivity lakes. Further, after variance owing to specific conductance was removed, the presence of stream connections was positively related to species richness for fish, snails, and macrophytes as well as familial richness in benthic invertebrates. Our results indicate that lakes with relatively more groundwater input have lower extinction rates for all four groups of taxa and that lakes with stream inlets and outlets have enhanced immigration rates for fish, snails, benthic invertebrate families, and macrophytes. These findings link processes of immigration and extinction of four groups of organisms of varying vagility to landscape-level hydrologic characteristics related to the glacial history of the region. We evaluated several factors influencing the taxonomic richness of macrophytes, benthic invertebrates, snails, and fish in a series of northern Wisconsin lakes. We chose the study lakes to decouple the potential effects of ionic strength of lake water and stream connection, two factors that are usually highly correlated and therefore have been confounded in previous studies. In addition, our study lakes covered a wide range in a variety of characteristics, including residential development, abundance of exotic species, nutrient concentrations, predator abundance, and lake size. Species richness within each of the four taxonomic groups was significantly positively related to ionic strength (as measured by specific conductance); we also found secondary associations with other variables, depending on the specific group of organisms. The relationship between richness and lake area was dependent on the specific conductance of the lake and the vagility of the organisms; less vagile groups Key words: landscape; groundwater; species richness; aquatic diversity; vagility; northern Wisconsin lakes. INTRODUCTION Defining the factors that influence the taxonomic diversity of an area is a standing goal of ecology. Island biogeography theory suggests that the diversity of an insular environment, such as a lake, island, or mountaintop, is determined by a balance Received 9 December 2002; accepted 8 December 2003; published online 31 May 2005. *Corresponding author; e-mail: [email protected] Present address: T.R. Hrabik, Department of Biology, University of Minnesota, 211 Life Science Building, 10 University Drive, Duluth, Minnesota, 55812-2496, USA 301 302 T. R. Hrabik and others of regional dispersal processes and local extinction processes (MacArthur and Wilson 1967; Barbour and Brown 1974; Magnuson and others 1998). Determining how these two forces interact to influence the diversity of particular assemblages represents an important challenge to ecologists (Ricklefs 1990; Shurin and others 2000). Lake districts provide excellent laboratories for determining the relative influence of regional dispersal versus local extinction as drivers of diversity. Lakes are islands of water in a terrestrial sea (Magnuson 1976), and they offer a diverse set of habitats that are likely to differ in immigration and extinction rates for particular groups of organisms. Immigration rates are most dependent on the ease with which organisms can move from lake to lake; thus, the dispersal characteristics of the organisms, the relative proximity and size of lakes, and the presence/absence of stream connections between lakes are likely to be important factors. Extinction rates in lakes are likely influenced by lake-specific characteristics, such as predator abundance, water chemistry, and habitat availability, that determine the relative suitability for particular organisms. In glaciated areas, the value of a lake district as a laboratory extends beyond examining how taxonomic diversity responds to dispersal versus extinction processes. Lakes in glaciated regions vary in both connectivity, or the potential for dispersal through streams, and in local environment, and both factors are influenced by the position of the lake in the landscape. A lake’s location in the landscape is not a mechanism immediately affecting species richness. Rather, lake location is a master variable that governs other factors that are more directly responsible for establishing the balance between immigration and extinction. Thus, lake location may sit atop a hierarchy or causal sequence that produces patterns in taxonomic diversity. The arrangement of lakes in the landscape is a template that constrains or ‘‘guides’’ the patterns that manifest in both the direct drivers of taxonomic diversity as well as taxonomic diversity itself. In northern Wisconsin lakes, it is useful to define lake landscape position as the location of a lake relative to the regional hydrologic flow regime (Kratz and others 1997; Riera and others 2000). Lakes relatively high in the flow system receive most of their water inputs from precipitation, whereas lakes lower in the flow system receive a substantial input of water from surface and groundwater sources. A variety of limnological characteristics are associated with a lake’s landscape position (Riera and others 2000). Lakes high in the flow system are often small, have low ionic strength, and lack stream connections to other lakes. Conversely, lakes relatively low in the flow system receive a greater proportion of their input from ion-rich groundwater and are often larger, have greater ion concentrations, and are interconnected by stream corridors (Kratz and others 1997; Magnuson and Kratz 2000; Riera and others 2000). In addition to limnological characteristics, the diversity of predators (fish and crayfish), the magnitude of human activity, and the abundance of macrophyte habitat all tend to increase from highland to lowland lakes (Kratz and others 1997; Reed-Anderson and others 2001; Lewis and Magnuson 2000). Previous research has shown landscape-level patterns in the taxonomic richness in lakes (Kratz and others 1997; Lewis and Magnuson 2000; Riera and others 2000). In particular, species richness of fish and snails increases from highland to lowland lakes. Although this pattern is well established, the mechanisms underlying it remain unknown. Given that lake landscape position largely dictates both regional dispersal (stream corridors) and local extinction (water chemistry, diversity of predators, habitat availability), it is difficult to assess the relative influence of these two suites of factors on species richness or diversity (Tonn and others 1990; Magnuson and others 1998). In this study, we evaluated the relative influence of dispersal versus extinction factors on taxonomic richness and diversity across a spatially structured landscape. Thus, we simultaneously determined the most likely mechanism underlying the relationship between lake order and taxonomic diversity (sensu Kratz and others 1997; Lewis and Magnuson 2000) and addressed the more general ‘‘dispersal versus extinction’’ debate (sensu Ricklefs 1990; Magnuson and others 1998; Shurin and others 2000). In particular, we determined what factors influence taxonomic richness and diversity in fish, snails, macroinvertebrates, and macrophytes in a series of northern Wisconsin lakes. Our goal was to investigate the mechanisms underlying the established correlation between species richness and landscape position. Our hypothesis set therefore derived from the factors correlated with landscape position that are expected to influence immigration and extinction rates. Thus, we expected that taxonomic richness and diversity (evenness) in these lakes would be driven by (a) dispersal opportunity; (b) limnological features, such as ionic strength and transparency; (c) predator abundance; and (d) habitat diversity. Typically, the effects of these factors are difficult to Landscape-scale Variation in Taxonomic Diversity distinguish because they covary among a set of lakes selected at random (Magnuson and Kratz 2000). By selecting study lakes along relatively independent gradients, we were able to identify the influence of different factors that are ordinarily correlated in any random sample of lakes. Because we examined lakes in a natural setting, however, we could not control for each independent variable of interest. We developed a series of nonmutually exclusive hypotheses based on each of these four factors: Dispersal Opportunity Hypothesis 1a. Lakes with stream connections will have greater taxonomic richness and diversity than isolated lakes because streams allow for higher immigration rates. Hypothesis 1b. Given similar limnological features, lakes with only outflowing streams will have lower taxonomic richness and diversity than lakes with inflowing streams. Hypothesis 1c. Because vagile taxa can more easily recolonize extinction conducive lakes, slopes of the log-log species–area relationships will be steeper for less vagile groups of organisms (for example, snails and fish) than those that can fly or have airborne propagule dispersal (for example, invertebrates and macrophytes). Limnological Features Hypothesis 2a. Lakes with higher ionic strength will have greater taxonomic richness and diversity than more dilute lakes owing to lower extinction or higher colonization rates in lakes with high ionic strength water. Hypothesis 2b. Lakes with greater nutrient concentrations will have greater taxonomic richness and diversity than lakes with lower nutrient concentrations. Predator Abundance Hypothesis 3a. Lakes with more intense predation will have lower taxonomic richness and diversity. Hypothesis 3b. Lakes with higher predator abundance will have higher richness and diversity resulting from keystone predator–prey responses. Habitat Availability Hypothesis 4a. Larger lakes, within the small range of sizes that we sampled, will have greater taxonomic richness and diversity than smaller lakes because increased habitat complexity and higher surface area for colonization of larger lakes results in lower extinction rates. 303 Hypothesis 4b. Lakes with higher disturbance resulting from lakeside cabin development, which alters littoral zone habitat (Christensen and others 1996), will have lower taxonomic richness and diversity because of reduced habitat availability. Hypothesis 4c. Lakes with a greater abundance of crayfish, which denude vegetated habitats, will have lower diversity. (For snails and macrophytes, this prediction also fits hypothesis 3 because crayfish feed on each.) MATERIALS AND METHODS The Region and Landscape Characteristics Our study lakes were located in the Bear River, Manitowish River, and Tomahawk River catchments of the Northern Highland Lake District in western Vilas and Oneida Counties, Wisconsin, USA. This area contains over 700 lakes greater than 0.75 ha and has a maximum difference in elevation among lakes of approximately 72 m (North Temperate Lakes Long-Term Ecological Research project [NTL-LTER] database). Of these lakes, approximately 30% have stream outlets and or inlets (NTLLTER database). The Laurentian ice sheet retreated from this area 10,000–13,000 years ago and left a landscape characterized by many lakes embedded in noncalcareous, sandy tills and outwash (Attig 1985). Study Site Selection We selected lakes with the primary objective of contrasting the relative importance of hydrologic isolation versus water chemistry in influencing taxonomic diversity. We used the presence or absence of stream inlets or outlets as a measure of isolation and specific conductance as an indicator of groundwater input and ionic strength. Both the presence of stream connections and higher-conductivity water are associated with lakes positioned low in the flow system in northern Wisconsin lakes. To separate these variables we specifically searched for and sampled four groups of lakes: (a) low conductivity, streams absent; (b) high conductivity, streams present; (c) low conductivity, streams present; and (d) high conductivity, streams absent. Lakes in categories (a) and (b) are common, but lakes in categories (c) and (d) are rare. We used a threshold of 50 lS to divide low- and high-conductivity lakes. Summary statistics for a number of lake characteristics are given in Table 1. We did not sample lakes with low pH (less than 6) to avoid confounding effects of species loss owing to this variable (see, for example, Rahel and Magnuson 1983). 304 Table 1. T. R. Hrabik and others Range of Variables Used in the Multivariate Analyses of Aquatic Species Diversity Water chemistry variables Conductivity (lS/cm) Total P (lg/L) Total N (lg/L) Chlorophyll-a (lg/L) Water clarity Secchi depth (m) Color (absorbance at 440 nm) Lake morphology Surface area (ha) Littoral area (ha) Max. depth (m) Lake connectivity Lake order Total no. of streams Macrobiota O. rusticus (#/trap) Total crayfish (#/trap) L. gibbosus (#/d) Benthic omnivorous fish (#/d) Predatory fish (#/d) Human influence Cabinsa Minimum Maximum Mean SD Fish Snails Plants Inverts 12 2.3 95.3 1.93 169 23.5 834.0 14.25 73.6 11.3 334.6 4.80 44.9 5.8 172.0 2.63 X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X 1.5 0.218 9.8 2.642 3.9 1.104 1.8 0.617 X X X X 4.4 520.4 128.7 128.9 X X X X 4.9 30.6 14.1 7.4 X X X X )3 0 4 4 0.62 1.2 1.84 1.1 X X X X X X X X 0 0 0 0 0 56.8 56.8 212 1,311 248 7.2 8.8 27.1 397.9 62.2 13.9 13.8 50.5 377.9 52.9 X X X X X 0 0.73 0.15 0.20 X X X X X X a Number of dwellings around the lake shore divided by the area of the lake Fish Sampling Fish sampling was conducted on 35 lakes during the summer period at least 1 month after thermal stratification in 1998, 1999, and 2000. This period was selected in an effort to standardize the sampling effectiveness and catch rates for all fish species across lakes. Several types of gear were used to estimate fish diversity in each lake; each gear was effective at catching a different set of fishes. Vertical gill nets were used to sample populations of pelagic fishes. A spectrum of mesh sizes (19-, 32-, 51-, 64-, and 89mm stretch mesh) was used, with each mesh size effectively catching a different size range of fish. The nets were fished in the deepest basin of each lake for one diel cycle; they were hung from foam rollers and stretched from the surface to the bottom of the lake. Fyke nets were used to sample fishes in the shallow nearshore area of each lake. These nets were constructed with 7-mm delta mesh, had a mouth opening 0.75 m high · 1.25 m wide, with a 1 m · 5 m single lead, and were set so the lead net ran perpendicular from shore with the mouth in water approximately 1 m deep. We set three fyke nets in each lake, one each in areas dominated by muck, sand, and cobble, for one diel cycle. We set three funnel-style minnow traps baited with 100 g of beef liver alongside each fyke net. Night electrofishing was performed in the near shore area between 0.3 and 2.0 m in depth. Two 30 min transects were performed such that a variety of substrate and habitat types were sampled. The dipnets used to net fish had 4-mm delta mesh and were capable of retaining small fishes (down to around 25 mm). Our objective with electrofishing was to cover a maximum number of habitat types and to capture and identify as many species as possible during each run while maintaining a constant effort across lakes. Fish collected using all gears were identified using the taxonomic key found in Becker (1983). The suite of gears used and effort was consistent across lakes. As such, the number of each species caught was summed across all gear in each lake to obtain a relative abundance of fish of each species in each lake and an estimate of species richness. Snail Sampling In August 1995–99, we surveyed 31 lakes once for snails and several variables that potentially influence snail distribution. Prior to sampling, lake habitat (sand, cobble, woody debris, and macrophytes) was determined by qualitatively mapping the entire shoreline of a lake at approxi- Landscape-scale Variation in Taxonomic Diversity mately 30-m intervals or by consulting habitat maps (Petrie and others 1993) that were confirmed for accuracy. Sample sites were chosen randomly, stratifying by habitat type. Snails were sampled from the following four habitat types in each lake: sand, cobble, woody debris, and macrophytes. The first three categories were sampled at each of three to five locations in each lake; the number of sites was dependent on the identification of a new species at each additional site (also see Lewis and Magnuson 2000; Lewis 2001). Sand and cobble sites were usually free of structure such as coarse woody debris and macrophytes. Preliminary sampling indicated that haphazardly located quadrats resulted in a gross underestimation of species richness. We sought to ensure that the search area for these patchily distributed organisms was appropriately scaled, depending on local snail density. Therefore, we used search time as the standard for effort, and each site was searched using SCUBA gear over a depth range of 0.5–4 m for 8 min. Timed search has been successfully applied to snail sampling in other physically complex habitats (Tattersfield 1996; Lewis and Magnuson 2000; Lewis 2001). For the macrophyte habitat, we sampled up to five sites in each lake, if available, by sweeping a D-net through 1.5 m2 (bottom surface area) of submerged macrophytes per site. Fewer sites were sampled from lakes that had only one or two habitat types per lake and in which only one patch of a particular habitat could be found. Snails were identified to species according to Burch (1982), with supplemental information from Clarke (1973). Benthic Invertebrate Sampling We used modified Hester-Dendy colonization substrates to sample benthic invertebrate communities in 32 lakes from 1998 to 2000. Colonization substrates sample selectively (Turner and Trexler 1997) and thus provide a biased estimate of benthic invertebrate assemblages. However, colonization substrates allow standardized sampling effort in a variety of habitat types within a lake, and they are suitable for detecting differences among habitats (Richards and others 1996). Two Hester-Dendy samplers were set at a depth of 1 m on each of three substrate types (cobble, sand, and silt) within each lake for 4 weeks in July and August. Different substrates were sampled to account for invertebrate associations with specific substrate characteristics. All benthic invertebrates were removed from the colonization samplers, preserved in 70% ethanol, identified, and enumerated. Aquatic insects were 305 identified to family; other invertebrates were classified to order (Thorp and Covich 1991). Macrophyte Sampling Macrophyte surveys were conducted in 29 lakes in mid- to late July, near peak biomass for macrophytes, from 1998 to 1999. Macrophytes were surveyed along a transect running perpendicular to shore at two sampling sites per lake, one dominated by sand and one dominated by muck substrate. Transects were set to 100 m in length or until a depth of 4 m was reached, whichever came first. SCUBA divers counted species within a 0.25-m2 circular quadrat at 1-m intervals along each transect, noting depth range and distance along transect. If less than 10 quadrats fell between depth ranges (0–1 m, 1-2 m, 2–3 m, 3–4 m), we sampled additional quadrats an arm’s throw off the transect. Percent cover for each plant species was determined for each quadrat. In 1998, cover was estimated on a 1–5 scale, where 1 was rare and 5 was abundant. In 1998 and 2000, cover was estimated as percent area covered (0%–100%). To join these two data sets, we categorized the data into five abundance categories, where 0%–20% equaled 1 on the 1–5 scale, 21%–40% equaled 2, and so on. To calculate absolute abundance for each lake, we totaled the abundance for all 10 replicates in the lake and divided by the total number of quadrats sampled (total absolute abundance). Uncommon or unknown species were sampled for identification and voucher specimens were identified using the taxonomic keys in Gleason and Cronquist (1991). Sampling of Lake Attributes Study lakes were sampled between 1 June and 1 September for the following water chemistry parameters: dissolved oxygen at depth (1-m intervals), temperature at depth (1-m intervals), vertically integrated chlorophyll, alkalinity, pH, conductivity, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, color (absorbance at 440 nm), and secchi depth. Samples were collected on each lake on a minimum of two sampling dates; most lakes were sampled on three dates, with a minimum of 3 weeks between each sampling. All water chemistry parameters except chlorophyll, temperature, dissolved oxygen, and secchi depth were estimated at 1 m below the surface and 2 m above the bottom, with the bottom sample collected only when the study lake was stratified. Water from these two depths were collected using a peristaltic pump and flexible tygon tubing. Color (absorbance at 440 nm) and samples for total ion 306 T. R. Hrabik and others concentration were filtered using 0.44-l Nuclepore filters. Temperature and oxygen profiles were performed using a YSI model 58 temperature/oxygen meter or a YSI Sonde 600 · 1 field meter on each limnological sampling date on each lake. Secchi transparency was estimated using a black-andwhite disk that was 20 cm in diameter. Chlorophyll samples were collected by pumping a measured volume of water from the epilimnion, metalimnion, and hypolimnion through a glass fiber filter. The location of the epi-, meta-, and hypolimnion was determined from the temperature profile of each lake on each sampling date, where strata layers were identified based on temperature changes greater than 0.99C per meter. Chlorophyll samples were collected by raising and lowering the opening of the sampling tubing within each depth strata until the filter clogged (that is, 15 psi on a pressure gauge) or 3 L of water had been filtered. The sample represented an integrated sample for each layer of the water column. Assumptions of Species Richness Data Our objective in performing the biological surveys was to apply standard sampling methodologies to facilitate interlake comparisons, not to create exhaustive species lists for each lake. We do not suggest that our estimates of species richness for each of the groups of aquatic organisms are actual counts of all the species present in any given lake ecosystem. However, we applied a similar amount of sampling effort, using consistent methods on lakes sampled for each group of organisms, and we assume that our estimates of species richness are comparable across each of the lakes sampled. Furthermore, our considerations of species diversity include the evenness of the assemblage. We adopted this consideration largely because an assemblage may be considered more diverse if it contains many species at relatively equal abundance when compared to an assemblage with equal number of species that is dominated by rare taxa. We computed two indices of diversity that incorporate abundance using the richness and abundance data for each group of organisms: the Shannon-Weaver index and Hurlbert’s pie. The two diversity indices were strongly correlated for each group of organisms (R > 0.90 for all groups) so we included analyses using only the Shannon-Weaver index of diversity. Statistical Analyses We first compared species richness among the four major categories of lakes (combinations of high or low conductivity and streams present or absent). We then compared the strength and slope of species–area curves for each group of organisms across all lakes. Finally, we use classification and regression tree (tree) analyses to assess the relative importance of each of 10 (nine for macrophytes) independent variables in explaining the taxonomic richness and diversity for each group of organisms. For each taxonomic group, we used the split value for the first variable selected by the tree model to examine log-log species–area relationships for subsets of lakes. We chose tree models because they are nonparametric, valid for detecting nonlinear effects, and enable analysis of both categorical and continuous variables (Clark and Pregibon 1992). Tree analyses split the data set by recursive partitioning into smaller and successively less variable portions until the variability within each subset is less than a user-defined level (Clark and Pregibon 1992). The algorithm chooses the split, from all options of all independent variables, that minimizes unexplained variation in the dependent variable. Our criteria for variable inclusion were that the proportional reduction in error (PRE) (which is analogous to r2) owing to any independent variable included in the model was more than 5% of the total variation in the data and that each new split used a minimum of 10 data points. We used the tree model analysis software offered by S-plus (v. 4.5) with leastsquares minimization to discriminate groupings of the data based on the aforementioned levels of variation reduction. This procedure enables the model to initially fit a large tree that meets the selection criteria. However, some of the ‘‘nodes’’ in the tree may not contribute significantly to the variation explained by the model. To eliminate nodes and associated selected variables that provided no significant additional explanatory power to the model, we used node deviance to facilitate the identification of a model of the appropriate size (Clark and Pregibon 1992). We also tested for variable covariation by computing a correlation matrix for all variables included in the analysis (Table 2). If two variables that were significantly correlated were included in the same tree model, we excluded the variable that came in after the initially selected variable. The variable representing predator abundance differed depending on the group of organisms being analyzed. The abundance of pumpkinseed (where abundance equals the number caught in a lake in all sampling gears) (Lepomis gibbosus) was used as the predator variable for snails (Lewis and Magnuson 2000). For the fishes, the predator variable was Landscape-scale Variation in Taxonomic Diversity Table 2. 307 Spearman-Rank Correlations for Independent Variables Included in Tree Model Analyses Lake Area Lake area Lake order Maximum depth Phosphorus Color Chlorophyll Specific conductance Cabin density O. rusticus abundance Littoral area Lake Order Maximum Depth P value Color Specific Cabin O. rusticus Chlorophyll-a Conductance Density Abundance 0.326 )0.002 )0.290 0.072 )0.063 0.135 0.254 0.401 0.287 0.499 0.690 )0.745 )0.506 )0.559 )0.134 0.680 0.538 0.286 0.474 )0.050 0.327 0.147 0.225 0.188 0.403 )0.178 )0.143 0.186 0.205 )0.135 0.044 0.156 0.050 0.301 0.231 0.071 0.941 0.387 0.033 )0.025 )0.083 0.130 0.241 0.142 represented in each lake by the abundance of fish greater than 275 mm that were known to be piscivorous. The predatory fish species included walleye (Stizostedion vitreum), northern pike (Esox lucius), muskellunge (Esox masquinongy), smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomeiu), and largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) (Becker 1983). For benthic invertebrates, the predator variable included the abundance of fish greater than 70 mm that were known to eat benthic invertebrates (Becker 1983). Benthivorous fish included Iowa darter (Etheostoma nigrum), johnny darter (Etheostoma exile), logperch (Percina caproides), troutperch (Percopsis omiscomycus), mottled sculpin (Cottus bairdi), slimy sculpin (Cottus cognatus), bluegill (Lepomis macrochirus), black crappie (Pomoxis nigromaculatum), pumpkinseed (Lepomis gibbosus), rockbass (Ambloplites rupestris), yellow perch (Perca flavescens), warmouth (Lepomis gulosus), and any hybrids thereof. We used the abundance of the exotic crayfish (Orconectes rustics) as the predator variable for macrophytes. The abundance of this organism was considered a disturbance variable for other groups of organisms owing to its deleterious effect on macrophytes (Olsen and others 1991). RESULTS Connectedness, Specific Conductance, and Aquatic Diversity There was a strong positive relationship between lake conductivity and species richness (Figure 1). Within isolated lakes, one way Kruskal-Wallis tests indicated significantly higher richness in high conductivity lakes for fish, snails, invertebrates, and aquatic plants (P < 0.05). The same test showed 0.205 that, within the low-conductivity lake category, lakes with streams had greater taxonomic richness for fish (P < 0.01) and possibly for snails (P < 0.10). For high-conductivity lakes, those with streams had significantly higher species richness of fish and invertebrates (P < 0.05). Species diversity was related to specific conductance within the study lakes. There was a positive correlation between lake conductivity and species diversity for fish, snails, and macrophytes (Figure 2). However, there was no relationship between lake-specific conductance and invertebrate diversity among all lakes. Within isolated lakes, one-way Kruskal-Wallis tests showed significantly higher diversity in high-conductivity lakes for fish, invertebrates, and aquatic plants (P < 0.05) but not snails (P = 0.65). The same test showed that within the low-conductivity lake category, lakes with streams did not have significantly greater diversity for fish, snails, invertebrates, or macrophytes (P > 0.10). Furthermore, high-conductivity lakes with streams did not have significantly higher diversity (for any group of organisms) than those without stream connections (P > 0.14). Direction of stream flow may influence the immigration of new species into lakes. Furthermore, we could not eliminate all covariation between specific conductance and the extent of connectedness to other lakes during the lake selection process. To address the possibility that lakes with outlets but no inlets have lower immigration rates than lakes with both inlets and outlets, we compared species richness and diversity among lakes with similar specific conductance that had either outlets alone or inlets as well as outlets. We found no significant differences in either species richness or diversity when lakes of order zero 308 T. R. Hrabik and others Figure 1. Species richness for four groups of organisms segregated by levels of lake conductivity and the presence or absence of stream connections to other lakes. Filled boxes indicate values for low-conductivity lakes; open boxes indicate values for high-conductivity lakes. Figure 2. Species diversity for four groups of organisms segregated by levels of lake conductivity and the presence or absence of stream connections to other lakes. Filled boxes indicate values for low-conductivity lakes; open boxes indicate values for high-conductivity lakes. (outlets alone) were compared to lakes of order 1–4 (inlets and outlets) (Kruskal-Wallis tests, P > 0.10) (Figure 3). The significance and strength of species–area relationships varied among the four taxonomic groups (Figure 4 and Table 3). For the fishes, species richness was significantly positively correlated to the area of the lake, and area explained approximately 46% of the variability in fish richness (Table 3). Snail richness was also positively related to lake area; however, the trend was only marginally significant (P = 0.09) (Table 3). Lake area did not correlate significantly with species richness of either benthic invertebrates or macrophytes (Table 3). Output from tree-based models indicated a significant effect of specific conductance on species richness and Shannon-Weaver diversity of fish, snails, and macrophytes. Lake conductivity was the most consistent initial variable selected by the tree models among all independent variables considered in the analysis of individual groups of organisms. The presence of streams and predator abundance also were each selected as the initial variable. Variables included after the initially selected variable included the abundance of predatory species, maximum depth, the density of cabins, phosphorus concentration, and lake area. In the following sections, we discuss the results of tree analyses in more detail for each of the different taxa. Fish Richness and Diversity Tree model analysis indicated that specific conductance was the most significant source of variation in fish species richness within our study lakes. Lakes with conductivity greater than 36 lS had significantly more species than lakes with lower conductivity (Figure 5 A). In the lakes with conductance lower than 36 lS, piscivorous fish abundance was positively correlated with fish species richness. Lakes with specific conductance higher than 93 lS contained significantly more species than lakes with conductivity between 36 and 92 lS (Figure 5A). The total variation in fish richness explained by conductivity and predator abundance was approximately 77% and 5%, respectively. The PRE by the tree model of fish richness was 82.6% (Figure 5A). Variability in fish diversity was related to lake conductivity and lake maximum depth. Fish diversity was higher in lakes with conductivity greater than 50 lS (Figure 5B). Of lakes with conductivity greater than 50 lS, those with maximum depth greater than 11 Landscape-scale Variation in Taxonomic Diversity 309 Figure 3. Species richness and Shannon-Weaver diversity for aquatic organisms in high specific conductance lakes with outlets but no inlets and lakes with both inlets and outlets. Figure 4. Species–area relationships for four groups of aquatic organisms found in northern Wisconsin lakes. m had higher fish diversity than shallower lakes (Figure 5B). The PRE in the diversity of fishes owing to conductivity and maximum depth was 20.7% and 14.7%, respectively. The total variation in fish diversity reduced by the tree model was 35.4%. 310 T. R. Hrabik and others Table 3. Results of a Linear Regression Analysis of Log-Species versus Log–Lake Areaa for four Groups of Organisms Group of Organisms No. of Lakes Parameter Coefficient SE t P P (Total) R2 36 Intercept (a) Log–Lake Area (z) 0.35 0.33 0.149 0.065 2.37 4.98 < 0.024 < 0.000 < 0.00 0.44 31 Intercept (a) Log–Lake Area (z) 0.594 0.226 0.324 0.130 1.834 1.739 0.078 0.094 0.094 0.10 29 Intercept (a) Log–Lake Area (z) 0.985 0.048 0.124 0.053 7.933 0.900 0.000 0.376 0.376 0.03 28 Intercept (a) Log–Lake Area (z) 1.213 )0.011 0.227 0.097 5.334 )0.108 0.000 0.915 0.915 0.00 Fish Snails Invertebrates Macrophytes a Log-species = a+z Log-area. Snail Richness and Diversity Variation in snail species richness in the tree model was associated with lake conductivity and the abundance of L. gibbosus, a fish species identified as a major predator of snails. In lakes with conductivity less than 36 lS, significantly fewer snail species were found. Among lakes with conductivity greater than 36 lS, those with an L. gibbosus abundance greater than or equal to 10.5 fish caught per day contained more snail species than lakes of that conductance category with fewer L. gibbosus (Figure 5C). Variation in Shannon-Weaver diversity of snails was explained by conductivity alone. In lakes with conductivity less than 50 lS, there was a significantly less diverse snail community than in lakes with conductivity higher than 50 lS (Figure 5C). The total variation in snail richness reduced by the tree model was approximately 79% (Figure 5C), with conductivity and predator (L. gibbosus) abundance representing 70.7% and 8.1%, of the variance reduced, respectively (Figure 5C). Conductivity was the only significant variable in the tree model for snail diversity, explaining 32.6% of the total variation (Figure 5D). Benthic Invertebrate Familial Richness and Diversity Variability in the richness of benthic invertebrate families was associated with the presence or absence of streams, specific conductance, and area. The tree model of invertebrate families indicated that familial richness was significantly higher in lakes with stream connections (Figure 6A). Of lakes that had stream connections to other lakes, lakes with specific conductance higher than 76 lS, contained more families of benthic invertebrates than those with lower specific conductance (Figure 6A). In addition, in lakes within the highest specific conductance category identified by the model, lake area had a significant positive influence on species richness. The PRE for the tree model of benthic invertebrate familial richness was approximately 38%. Variability in the diversity of benthic invertebrate families was associated with the abundance of omnivorous fish (number of fish caught per day) (Figure 6B). In each of two categories of lakes defined by the initial split in omnivorous fish abundance, the number of benthic invertebrate families was further associated with an abundance of omnivorous fishes. Over all lakes sampled for invertebrate familial diversity, lakes with more than 221 omnivorous fish caught per sample day had higher diversity (Figure 6B). However, in lakes where the abundances of omnivorous fish were less than 221 per sample day, the correlation between fish and benthic invertebrate familial diversity was negative (Figure 6B). This general pattern suggests a U-shaped pattern such that benthic invertebrate familial diversity was lowest at intermediate abundances of benthivorous fishes. The total variation in diversity of benthic invertebrate families reduced by the tree model was approximately 31% (Figure 6B). Plant Richness and Diversity The tree-based model of plant species richness identified lake conductivity as the most influential variable, followed by density of cabins. Plant species richness was higher in lakes with conductivity greater than 50 lS than in lakes with lower conductivity (Figure 6C). Among the lakes with Landscape-scale Variation in Taxonomic Diversity 311 Figure 5. Dendograms of classification and regression trees derived from species richness and ShannonWeaver diversity index values found for fish and snails and data on independent variables collected from each study lake. Levels of each variable where splits in the data occurred, proportional reduction in error reduced by each variable, and total proportional reduction in error are shown within each dendogram. Figure 6. Dendograms of classification and regression trees fit to species richness and Shannon-Weaver diversity index values found for benthic invertebrates and macrophytes and data on independent variables collected from each study lake. Levels of each variable where splits in the data occurred, proportional reduction in error reduced by each variable, and total proportional reduction in error are shown within each individual dendogram. conductance higher than 50 lS, lakes with conductivity higher than 117 lS had significantly more plant species than lakes with lower conductivity. In lakes with conductance between 50 and 117 lS, lakes with a cabin density greater than 0.054 cabins/ha contained significantly fewer species than lakes with a higher cabin density (Figure 6C). The tree model of Shannon-Weaver index of plant diversity initially selected lake conductivity, abundance of the exotic crayfish Orconectes rusticus, and concentration of phosphorus. Plant diversity was greater in lakes with a conductivity higher than 50 lS (Figure 6D). Of lakes with conductivity greater than 50 lS, lakes with an abundance of O. rusticus 312 T. R. Hrabik and others Figure 7. Species–area relationships for four groups of aquatic organisms found in highconductivity and low-conductivity lakes identified by the initial split in the tree models. Filled circles indicate species richness values for low-conductivity lakes; open circles indicate species richness values for high-conductivity lakes. less than 5.0 (number per trap) had a greater diversity of plants than lakes of that category with higher crayfish abundance (Figure 6D). Furthermore, lakes with a crayfish abundance lower than 5.0 (number per trap) and a phosphorus concentration higher than 11 lg/L had greater plant diversity. Analyses of Subgroups of Data Defined by Tree Models Subsets of data delineated by tree models indicated that the explanatory power of lake area was dependent on the edaphic conditions within the lakes. Categories of lakes defined by the initial variable selected by the tree models showed different species–area relationships for each group of organisms (Figure 7). The slope of the log-log species–area relationship (z) was higher for the low-conductivity lake category for all groups of organisms, although there were significant differences in the slope for fish and snails only (Tables 4 and 5). DISCUSSION The Diversity of Lake Organisms within a Landscape Context The geomorphic and hydrologic template strongly influences the characteristics of lakes and associated aquatic species diversity in northern Wiscon- sin. In randomly selected lakes, lake position relative to hydrology is correlated with lake size, conductance, and connectedness to other lakes (Riera and others 2000). Our aim in this study was to decouple these correlated variables (particularly conductance and connectedness to other lakes), which have equal potential to influence lake biotic communities. Our analyses indicate that lake conductivity is strongly linked to the richness and diversity of aquatic organisms. Our results from lakes along a broad gradient in specific conductance indicate a significant positive relationship between conductivity and species richness and diversity that was likely the result of our study lakes being within the low range of productivity as compared to the range found in other geological provinces (Dodson and others 2000; Mittlebach and others 2001). The presence of stream connections, which represent immigration and colonization routes, also positively influenced fish, snail, and benthic invertebrate richness, but did not significantly influence the richness of macrophyte communities. These results fit into the context of island biogeography (MacArthur and Wilson 1967; MacArthur 1972) and provide supporting evidence for three of our hypotheses: (a) that specific conductance (a correlate of groundwater flow rates relative to direct precipitation inputs) has a positive influence on aquatic diversity in these systems that is likely linked to extinction rates; (b) that stream connections are important for immigration routes, partic- Landscape-scale Variation in Taxonomic Diversity Table 4. Models 313 Results of Homogeneity of Slope Analysis of Log-Richness in Groups of Lakes Identified by Tree Group of Organisms No. of Lakes Parameter Coefficient SE t P P (Total) R2 36 Intercept (a) Group Log-area (z) Log-area * Group )0.170 1.283 0.516 )0.479 0.124 0.163 0.063 0.077 )1.37 7.86 8.16 )6.27 0.180 < 0.001 < 0.001 < 0.001 < 0.001 0.873 31 Intercept (a) Group Log-area (z) Log-area * Group )0.202 1.569 0.434 )0.490 0.374 0.544 0.148 0.218 )0.54 2.86 2.93 )2.23 0.593 <0.01 <0.01 0.035 < 0.01 0.418 29 Intercept (a) Group Log-area (z) Log-area * Group 1.154 0.419 )0.064 )0.063 0.316 0.416 0.148 0.183 3.65 1.02 )0.43 )0.34 < 0.001 0.317 0.668 0.734 0.018 0.336 28 Intercept (a) Group Log-area (z) Log-area * Group 0.964 0.704 0.038 )0.213 0.400 0.482 0.197 0.225 2.41 1.46 0.19 0.94 0.024 0.157 0.847 0.354 0.056 0.266 Fish Snails Invertebrates Macrophytes Groups of lakes were identified according to the level of conductivity for fish, snails, and macrophytes and the presence or absence of streams for invertebrates. Table 5. Results of a Linear Regression Analysis of Log-Species versus Log-Lake Area in Lake Classes Group of Organisms No. of Lakes Cond. Log–Lake Area Coe. (z) P r2 11 23 Low High 0.52 0.04 < 0.00 0.368 0.85 0.37 5a 22 Low High 0.397 )0.06 0.050 0.681 0.05 0.01 15 14 Low High 0.008 )0.07 0.890 0.513 0.00 0.04 9 19 Low High )0.064 )1.27 0.742 0.191 0.01 0.10 Fish Snails Invertebrates Macrophytes a Lakes with zero species detected were omitted from the regression. The coecient for log–lake area is equal to z. The first value in each column is the value for lakes classified in the lower level of the edaphic variable conductivity; the second value is for the lakes classified at the higher level of the variable. Each conductivity class was identified by the tree models. ularly in lakes with low groundwater input; and (c) that predators may have a keystone effect on benthic organisms within small lakes. Specific Conductance as a Source of Variability Specific conductance, which is associated with groundwater input, was the most consistent factor associated with variability in aquatic richness and diversity identified by our analyses. Our results from analyses of broad categories of lakes defined by specific conductance indicated a significant effect on richness for each group and for species diversity in fish, snails, and macrophytes as well as invertebrates found in lakes without streams. It is unclear how specific conductance is mechanistically linked to increased taxonomic richness in the 314 T. R. Hrabik and others lakes studied. However, specific conductance and chlorophyll level are positively correlated (Table 2) and lakes with higher specific conductance have larger more structurally complex plant species (K. Wilson unpublished). Increases in groundwater flow in lake districts dominated by glacial till substrate enable increased productivity in the littoral zone of lakes (Lodge and others 1989; Hagerthey and Kerfoot 1998). The increased benthic primary production and associated increases in littoral habitat complexity in lakes with higher groundwater input likely result in the observed increases in macrophyte richness and diversity. Increases in littoral zone complexity linked to conductivity may decrease extinction rates of other groups of organisms such as invertebrates, snails, and fish by providing refugia, thereby reducing the intensity of biotic interactions. Furthermore, increases in groundwater flow rates may lead to direct increases in productivity throughout the lake by bringing in trace elements such as phosphorus or others that are required for algal production and increase total primary productivity. Changes in primary productivity may influence the number of species, with the extent and direction of the relationship varying according to the level of productivity (Rosenzweig and Abramski 1993; Pastor and others 1996; Weiher 1999; Mittelbach and others 2001). Where the effect of productivity is positive, more productive systems may have higher potential to support larger species pools (Lassen 1975; Rosenzweig 1995; Dodson and others 2000). Therefore, groundwater input rates appear to be an important determinant of diversity in northern Wisconsin lakes not only through straightforward increases in productivity, but also by adding plant species that increase littoral zone habitat complexity. The lack of a relationship between phosphorus, the limiting nutrient in lakes (Schindler 1977), and biotic richness may be related to high variability in measurements. On the other hand, it may indicate that phosphorus is only partially responsible for the patterns observed. Variability in phosphorus is high in studies where measurements are taken at a few points throughout a season (as in this study) owing to rapid uptake by phytoplankton and periphyton (Gerloff and Skoog 1954; Klemer and Barko 1991). Furthermore, phosphorus concentration is relatively low within the lakes studied here and is often near the limit of detection, resulting in a low signalto-variance ratio. Thus, conductivity, which is more consistent across time scales and more easily measured, may offer a stronger, more consistent indication of edaphic conditions that are linked to variability in aquatic species richness and diversity. Low groundwater flow rates in lakes may also lead to stress for organisms that require a minimum level of calcium for the construction of exoskeletons. Snails represent a taxonomic group experiencing this limitation in low-conductivity lakes (Lodge and others 1987), and the increased diversity observed in high-conductivity lakes may be a manifestation of a limitation in the lowest-conductivity lakes for this group of organisms. Stream Connections and Immigration Lakes with stream connections had higher species richness of fish, snails, and invertebrates than lakes with no inlets or outlets, indicating that immigration via streams is important for these groups of organisms. However, the presence or absence of streams did not appear to influence the evenness of the assemblages. For fishes and snails, groups that lack life history characteristics that allow effective transport overland or through the air, our results are consistent with the expectation that stream corridors enhance immigration rates and lead to higher richness, particularly in lakes with low specific conductance. Many aquatic insects have adult stages capable of flying, and we would expect that stream corridors would be less important as immigration corridors for these taxa. Nevertheless, lakes connected to other lakes had higher taxonomic richness of invertebrates. We speculate that streams represent sources for invertebrate species that colonize lake ecosystems. Many types of benthic invertebrates thrive in stream environments, and the observed increase in benthic invertebrate richness might be a manifestation of additional invertebrate taxa in streams adjoining lakes. However, we were unable to determine whether these differences resulted from the additional organisms in streams at the familial level. Macrophyte species richness and diversity did not increase significantly in response to the presence/ absence of stream connections. The most likely mechanisms for the lack of an effect are related to (a) decreases in water clarity associated with stream connections, (b) high overland immigration rates for this group that greatly exceed the immigration via stream connections, or (c) the presence of seed banks that greatly decrease extinction rates in this group. We found a negative correlation between water transparency and plant species richness in our study lakes (plant richness versus secchi, Pearson correlation, )0.331, P = 0.084); this suggests that as transparency increased, plant richness decreased, thus discounting the first possibility. It is more plausible that airborne transport of seeds and Landscape-scale Variation in Taxonomic Diversity spores, via wind or waterfowl, provides an adequate source of immigration to lakes and that the movement of plant fragments or reproductive propagules via streams is less important for this group of organisms. Also, long-term storage of seeds in lake sediments likely decreases the rate of extinction for this group of organisms relative to others considered in this study. Thus, it is likely that the positive influence of increased invasion rate and reduced extinction rates resulting from life history traits may mask the influence of streams on macrophyte richness and diversity. Predation Intensity and Species Richness and Diversity The abundance of predators, although of secondary importance to lake characteristics, was associated with variability in species richness and diversity. Species richness in snails was significantly higher in lakes with a greater abundance of L. gibbosus, a fish species that is known to feed heavily on snails. Also, invertebrate evenness appeared to be higher in the lakes with the highest abundance of omnivorous fishes. In each case, the relationship was positive, suggesting that predators may operate as keystone species for benthic organisms in lake islands. Species–Area, Vagility, and Hydrologic Connections The species–area relationships found in our study suggest differential responses among taxa and groups of lakes that may be dependent on habitat availability, the vagility of the aquatic organisms, and the relative groundwater flow rates. Species richness in fish and snails was correlated to lake area, particularly when segregated into classes of lakes with high and low conductivity. Lakes with low specific conductance had steeper slopes of species–area relationships than lakes with high specific conductance for each group of organisms. However, familial richness of benthic invertebrates and species richness of aquatic plants were not related to lake area in either class of lakes. The lack of a species–area relationship for macrophytes and benthic invertebrates—groups that are known to be highly associated with the littoral zone—may indicate that littoral area does not increase proportionately with lake area. Within our study lakes, however, littoral area is strongly correlated to lake area (Table 2), suggesting that other variables were associated with the observed variability in the number of species in each group. 315 Ecosystems with a greater proportionate increase in habitat with area may have a higher slope (z) of the log-log species–area relationship (Rosenzweig 1995). Accordingly, the z term for the low-conductivity subgroup of the lakes was significant (P < 0.05) for fish and snails. This general pattern in z for fish and snails suggests that the influence of area for fish and snails is stronger for lakes with low specific conductance and is consistent with the hypothesis that habitat complexity and extinction rates are lower in larger lake ecosystems, given similar chemical conditions. Although we did not measure habitat diversity or heterogeneity, it is possible that increases in lake area provide greater habitat heterogeneity or diversity in low-conductivity lakes. We observed higher species richness and diversity for organisms in lakes with higher specific conductance with or without stream connections, suggesting that habitat heterogeneity may be enhanced in these lakes as well. The effect of increasing lake area was much stronger for fish and snails than for benthic invertebrates and macrophytes in lakes with low specific conductance, suggesting that the vagility of the organisms plays a role in determining species richness. The latter two groups have life stages that can exist for extended periods of time out of water or have life stages capable of extended overland travel. Higher immigration rates for these vagile groups may reduce the importance of lake size on species richness. Disturbance variables, including exotic crayfish abundance and cabin density, had secondary effects on species richness and diversity relative to other variables measured in this study. The abundance of exotic crayfish strongly influences the abundance and diversity of aquatic plants in many ecosystems (Lorman 1980; Lodge and Lorman 1987) and had a negative effect on plant diversity in this study. Furthermore, the removal of macrophytes by cabin owners can have a negative effect on macrophyte abundance and diversity (Radomski and Gorman 2001), and cabin density was negatively associated with plant species richness in a subset of our study lakes. However, in this analysis, the effect of disturbance variables appeared to be of secondary importance to lake characteristics (specific conductance and the presence of stream connections). Possible explanations for this pattern include: (a) that species richness and diversity are not good indicators of disturbance, (b) none of our study systems were heavily impacted by development, and (c) that lake characteristics mediate the signal of disturbance. Disturbance influences species richness in many taxa (Rosenzwieg 1995), and the level 316 T. R. Hrabik and others of lakeside development on several of the lakes in our data set approaches those observed in urban areas. Thus, it is more likely that lake characteristics, such as specific conductance, mediate the influence of rusty crayfish or littoral zone manipulation by lakeside cabin owners. However, the negative effects of lakeside development may be operating presently and may be counteracted by the resilience of these communities to disturbance that dampen losses in diversity over short time scales. In summary, a lake’s relative position in the hydrologic flow system is an important determinant of taxonomic richness of fishes, snails, invertebrates, and macrophytes in northern Wisconsin lakes. Local lake characteristics appear to be more important than isolation variables. Our findings are consistent with those identified by Magnuson and others (1998), who found strong linkages between lake characteristics and fish assemblages. The influence of isolation and extinction on species richness, within the context of island biogeography, appears to be tempered by life history characteristics; organisms with high vagility may have immigration rates that greatly exceed extinction processes in lakes with a higher association with groundwater. Disturbance variables such as cabin density and the abundance of exotic crayfish had a secondary, negative effect on the diversity and richness of macrophytes. Taken together, our results show that the geologic and hydrologic characteristics of the landscape are directly associated with the processes shaping aquatic biodiversity on local and landscape scales. The overall characteristics of biotic communities appear to be set initially by the hydrologic template; this biotic assemblage may then be acted on by anthropogenic sources of variability, such as cabin development and the addition of exotics. Lakeside development within the study region is relatively recent, and biotic communities may be responding to these influences presently. As such, we think that there may be a lag between development and its cumulative effects on species diversity in aquatic systems. Cabin development on lakeshores and the continued spread of exotic crayfish in north temperate regions may have negative effects on aquatic biodiversity over longer time scales because these factors reduce species richness and diversity in macrophyte communities that likely provide habitat for other groups of aquatic organisms. (NSF) Graduate Research Traineeship on the integration of lake and stream ecology, and the LongTerm Ecological Research Program (NSF). 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