April 2016 LucidTalk Monthly Tracker Poll (Northern Ireland) Results
NI Party Leader Ratings, NI Political Party Ratings,
Ratings, NI Assembly Seat
Predictor, and UK EU Referendum poll results.
results
POLL QUESTIONS RESULTS - SUMMARY REPORT:
REPORT
3rd May 2016
CONTENTS
LUCIDTALK MONTHLY TRACKER POLLS - Introduction and Background........................................
................................
2
Methodology: ................................................................................................
................................
.................................................................... 2
LucidTalk – Professional Credentials................................................................
................................................................ 2
REPORT and COMMENTARY ................................................................................................
................................
............................................ 3
NI POLITICAL PARTY LEADER RATINGS ................................................................
......................................................... 3
NI Party Leader Ratings - Leader Satisfaction Scores................................................................
...................................... 4
POLITICAL PARTY RATINGS ................................................................................................
................................
............................................. 5
LucidTalk NI Assembly Seat Predictor................................................................
.............................................................. 6
How to interpret the results ................................................................................................
................................
............................................... 7
EU - NORTHERN IRELAND IS TRENDING BACK TOWARDS 'LEAVE' ............................................
................................
8
EU Referendum - Reasons for voting decision ................................................................
............................................... 12
Subject
Media Polling Projects
Issue
29 April Opinion Panel Poll-Project: Final Results
esults
Date
3rd MAY 2016
Author(s)
Bill White – LucidTalk
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LUCIDTALK
UCIDTALK MONTHLY TRACKER POLLS - Introduction and Background
LucidTalk are running regular 'Monthly Tracker' polls of their established 1,800
1, 00 member Northern Ireland
Opinion Panel during the build-up
up to the NI Assembly elections on 5th May, and the UK EU Referendum on
June 23rd. The LucidTalk
Talk Opinion Panel (1,800
(1,
members) consists of Northern Ireland residents (age 18+) and
is balanced by gender, age-group,
group, area of residence, and community background, in order to be
demographically representative of Northern Ireland.
The objective of these scheduled and regular monthly 'Tracker' polls is to research opinion on key issues at
key points in time during this critical pre-election
pre election period + track changes in trends and opinions about key
topics and issues on a monthly basis. These key issues include: Political Party popularity, Party Leader ratings,
Key election issues, and EU referendum opinion.
For this 'April Tracker' poll-project
project our 1,800
1, 00 member NI Opinion Panel was targeted, and invited to
participate, and after data auditing 1,082 full responses were recorded in terms of the final results.
Methodology:
Polling was carried out by Belfast based polling and market research company LucidTalk. The project was
carried out online for a period of 60 Hours from 10am 26th April to 10pm 28th April
Apri 2016 (60 Hours). The
project targeted the established LucidTalk Opinion Panel (1,800
(1,
members) which is balanced by gender, agegroup, area of residence, and community background, in order to be demographically representative of
Northern Ireland. 1,168 full responses were received,
received and a data auditing process was carried out to ensure all
completed poll-surveys were genuine 'one-person,
'one
one-vote' responses, resulting in 1,082 responses being
considered in terms of the final results.
All data results have been weighted by gender and community background to reflect the demographic
composition of Northern Ireland. All data results produced are accurate to a margin of error of +/-3.0%,
+/
at
95% confidence.
All surveys and polls may be subject to sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error, coverage
error, and measurement error. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for
weighting. NB In addition to sampling
ng error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys
can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
LucidTalk – Professional
rofessional Credentials
LucidTalk is a member of all recognised professional Polling and Market Research organisations,
including the UK Market Research Society (UK-MRS),
(UK MRS), the British Polling Council (BPC), and
ESOMAR (European Society of Market Research organisations). The BPC are the primary UK
professional body ensuring professional Polling and Market
Market Research standards. All polling,
research, sampling, methodologies used, market research projects and results and reports
production are, and have been, carried out to the professional standards laid down by the BPC.
LucidTalk Limited | The Innovation Centre | NI Science Park I Queen's Road | Queen’s Island | Belfast BT3 9DT
Telephone: 028 9073 7800 (Switchboard) | 028 9040 9980 (Direct) | 07711 450545 (Mobile)
Fax: 028 9073 7801 | Email: [email protected]
REPORT and COMMENTARY
NI POLITICAL
OLITICAL PARTY LEADER RATINGS:
We can see that Arlene Foster continues to have a good impact as the new DUP leader, with 45%
4 of
respondents thinking she is putting in a Very Good, or Good performance as DUP party leader - approximately
the same as last month. Unlike in March when Martin McGuinness came top in the Very Good/Good score,
Mrs Foster pips Martin McGuinness this time this time with 43%
4 % of respondents thinking he is doing a Very
Good, or Good job. However the scores are very close and well within
in the bounds of error. But the big
improver over the last month has been Mike Nesbitt of the UUP with 55% of respondents thinking he is doing
a Very Good, or Good, job.
TUV Leader Jim Allister once again puts in a strong score with 46%, along with Steven Agnew on 41%, in terms
of their 'Very Good, or Good' scores.
Colum Eastwood is sort of 'even' with a near similar No. thinking he is doing a good job, and approx. the same
No. thinking he is doing a bad job! He also continues to have a high No. of 'neutrals' (the green column)
indicating that perhaps the jury is still out on his leadership, with our poll respondents perhaps wanting more
evidence about his leadership before making a decision one way or the other. Alliance leader David Ford
scores 2nd bottom with his Very Good/Good score, and like Colum Eastwood he also has a high No. of
neutrals. David McNarry NI UKIP Leader scores very badly with only 3-4%
3 4% thinking he is doing a 'Very
good/Good' job.
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NI Party Leader Ratings - Leader Satisfaction Scores:
Scores: A useful way to look at Leader rating results is by 'Leader
satisfaction' scores - this is calculated by adding the combined 'Very Good/Good' scores, and subtracting the
combined 'Poor/Very Bad' scores, ignoring the neutral (green column) scores. If calculated this way the Leader
ratings come out as (in order of scores from high to low):
low)
MIKE NESBITT (UUP) +33.2, MARTIN
N MCGUINNESS (Sinn Fein) +19.3,, JIM ALLISTER (TUV) +17.9, ARLENE
FOSTER (DUP) +17.1, STEVEN AGNEW (Green Party) +14.5, COLUM EASTWOOD (SDLP) +4.4, DAVID FORD
(Alliance) -13.4, DAVID MCNARRY (UKIP) -78.4.
So this has changed since the March Opinion Panel Poll. Mike Nesbitt is now in the lead,
lead continuing the recent
trend with our polls on this issue.. Maybe his media performances during the election campaign have had
some effect, as it's viewed he's performed very well.
Martin McGuinness, Jim Allister, and Arlene Foster come in 2nd, 3rd, and 4th respectively. Arlene Foster was
third in our March poll but has now dropped back to 4th place, although still with a very respectable leader
rating score of +17.1 which is much better than the previous DUP
DUP leaders score on this question! In close 5th
place comes Steven Agnew +14.5.
14.5. Relatively speaking all the top 5 have good positive scores which is the
important thing as the difference between the scores shouldn't be analysed too deeply. Colum Eastwood can
c
be pleased that he's trending the right way with a now positive score of +4.4, compared to a negative score of
-2.5
2.5 in March, maybe indicating perhaps that as a newly elected leader he is beginning to make an impact.
Taking into account Jim Allister leads
ads one of the smaller parties, he's performing very well in these leader
ratings polls, and this April poll is no exception. Mr Allister is consistently scoring in the top 3 or 4, and this is
noteworthy as its usually the bigger parties who get the lion's share of the media coverage. Regardless of
whether our respondents vote TUV or not there seems to be a regard and respect for Jim Allister.
NB Wee did ask our Opinion Panel respondents to answer this question neutrally, disregarding their own
political views.
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POLITICAL PARTY RATINGS: Alliance and the TUV poll ratings continue to Rise!
Compared
ompared to our March Opinion Panel Poll, the changes are as follows:
DUP +0.3%, Sinn Fein +0.4%, SDLP -0.3%
0.3%, UUP -0.1%, Alliance +0.2%, TUV +0.2%, UKIP -0.4%, Green Party
+0.1%, NI Conservatives -0.1%, PUP nc, PBP +0.1%, Others -0.4%. nc = No Change
So the big two parties have consolidated again with the DUP showing a gain of +0.3%, after a hefty drop in our
March Poll of 1/2 point (0.5%) i.e. compared to our February poll, and Sinn Fein have also advanced 0.3%
compared to the February Tracker Poll. This perhaps shows that the Big Two parties, with their substantial
election machines are consolidating their core supporters.
However, it's the trends
ends that should be noted when following polls over a period of time - Hence our name of
'Tracker' polls. Therefore it's noteworthy that the Alliance party and the TUV have been continually advancing
in all our polls over recent months, albeit by small amounts,
amounts, but that trend is there and should be noted.
noted The
Alliance party is now up at 8.3%,
3%, and the TUV advancing again to 4.3%. Once again
gain Jim Allister put in a strong
performance in our Leaders ratings poll (see above),
above) and undoubtedly it's Mr Allister who is the TUV's biggest
election asset,, and is the main reason for the TUV's poll-score
poll score advance. The TUV certainly seem to know this
with Jim Allister appearing on every TUV election poster!
The SDLP and the UUP have dropped back a bit. Perhaps that Nolan show
show performance from one of the SDLP
representatives didn't help them.. Looking at the comments from our poll respondents (we note all comments)
there seems to be a lot of empathy with the UUP, but against this a lot of people are attracted to support the
DUP because of their new leader Arlene Foster. Like Jim Alister for the TUV, Arlene Foster seems to be the
DUP's biggest election asset at the moment. Indeed if you look at the DUP campaign it's hard not to draw the
conclusion that they have been following our
our Political Leaders ratings polls over the past few months, in which
the new DUP Leader has performed strongly,
strongly as the whole DUP campaign seems to be based around Mrs
Foster! Independents/Others have dropped back a bit - this isn't unusual coming up to the
th decision time of
election day as a lot of the 'Others' vote tends to go back to the mainstream parties as voting day approaches.
LucidTalk Limited | The Innovation Centre | NI Science Park I Queen's Road | Queen’s Island | Belfast BT3 9DT
Telephone: 028 9073 7800 (Switchboard) | 028 9040 9980 (Direct) | 07711 450545 (Mobile)
Fax: 028 9073 7801 | Email: [email protected]
LucidTalk NI Assembly Seat Predictor::
How it works:: Our NI Assembly seat predictor model takes into account the last four most recent LucidTalk
polls on NI Political Party support i.e. February 2016 (BIG100 poll), and our February 2016 to April 2016 (i.e.
this current poll) monthly NI Opinion Panel Tracker Polls.
We also incorporate previous
revious election results including NI Assembly,
Assembly, Westminster, and the Euro election in
2014, including vote transfer patterns. These individual poll results have been included in the modelling,
along with the trends. The trends show how political party support has been growing, declining, or remaining
rem
the same over the 2010 to 2016 period.
We also apply a weighting factor in terms of our 'Wisdom of Crowds' poll question which asks each
respondent their views as to how each political party will perform at the May NI Assembly election regardless of their own political views and preferences. Various additional weighting factors have also been
applied to all the polling data and research to reflect the structure of the forthcoming NI Assembly election
e.g. Alliance support concentration in key east NI constituencies, which is a benefit in terms of gaining seats.
seats
NB The
he model does not take into account:
account (a) Candidate 'name recognition', (b) Party
P
campaign machine
strengths, (c) Party
arty election tactics in terms of e.g. No's
No of candidates
andidates in each constituency (which could be
wrong!), (d) Different
ifferent election turnouts in various constituencies,
constituencies (e) The
he progress and flow of the election
campaign which could change right up to election day.
So here is our 29th April 2016 NI Assembly seat prediction forr the May 2016 NI Assembly election - Figures in
brackets show the change since our March NI Opinion Panel Tracker Poll:
NI ASSEMBLY ELECTION
EL
- MAY 2016
- LUCIDTALK SEAT PREDICTOR MODEL
POLITICAL PARTY
Seat
Prediction 29th April
Change
ge
from
March
DUP
33.6
+0.8
SINN FEIN
27.4
+0.5
SDLP
14.2
-0.5
UUP
17.3
-0.6
ALLIANCE
8.9
No change
TUV
1.9
No change
UKIP
0.4
-0.4
GREEN PARTY
1.3
+0.3
NI CONSERVATIVES
0.2
-0.1
PUP
0.9
+0.1
PEOPLE
EOPLE BEFORE PROFIT
1.3
No change
OTHERS/INDEPENDENTS
0.6
-0.1
TOTAL SEATS
108
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Telephone: 028 9073 7800 (Switchboard) | 028 9040 9980 (Direct) | 07711 450545 (Mobile)
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How to interpret the results:: The results are presented to one decimal point to allow us to show trends up
and down on a monthly basis with our monthly Tracker Opinion panel polls. The changes since our last
Opinion Panel Poll (March)) are indicated in the right-hand column. The way to interpret the results is e.g.
Alliance score 8.9 which means they are predicted for 8 seats with a 90%
0% chance of gaining a ninth seat, the
TUV are also predicted for 1.9 seats meaning
meaning probably Jim Allister is certain to hold his seat, with a very good
90% chance of a second seat - maybe Henry Reilly in South Down?,
Down?, although it could be somewhere else. UKIP
were at 0.8 seats in our March seat predictor meaning they had a good chance
chance of winning a seat (i.e.
( an 80%
chance) but that has now dropped to 0.4 indicating that their chances of winning a seat are fading - i.e. that's
according to our seat predictor model which can of course be proved wrong! The
he other scores can be
interpreted in a similar way.
So the big changes since our March poll have been the DUP consolidating around the 33 to 34 seats mark,
which means they would be down approximately 4 seats on their 2011 NI Assembly election performance.
The UUP are hovering around the 17 seat mark with the Alliance party trending towards 9 seats and the TUV
towards 2 seats. As noted from our March Tracker
racker poll the Alliance party and the TUV
TU have been trending
upwards in all our polls over the past several months,
months and this has fed through
h into our seat predictor model.
model
The SDLP are sort of treading water at around 14 seats.
seats
All the other changes are minimal. Looking at our modelling,
modelling a factor maybe impacting these changes has
been our 'Wisdom of Crowds' poll which shows that a significant view from all respondents is that the UUP
will make some gains at the election whilst the DUP will have some losses. This pattern was again confirmed in
our March tracker poll. As we said last month it seems that a large No. of e.g. Alliance,
Alliance DUP, and other voters,
have a positive view of the UUP's election prospects,
prospects and also NB a positive view of Mike Nesbitt's leadership However, they themselves are seemingly still voting for their respective parties! The challenge for the UUP is
to change these voterss around, and turn these sorts of sentiments into actual votes. But of course the UUP
should be able to pick-up
up a large No. of transfers from these voters if their candidates can stay in the count
game long enough.
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EU - NORTHERN IRELAND IS TRENDING BACK TOWARDS 'LEAVE'
and OBAMA HAS HAD AN IMPACT WITH UNIONISTS - BUT NOT THE WAY HE INTENDED!:
INTENDED!
Well the UK European Union In/Out Referendum campaign is well underway, and with the date of the UK EU
Referendum being Thursday June 23rd,
23rd we'll be polling on this issue on a regular basis right up to Referendum
day. The benefit of this regular scheduled polling is that it will allow us to see changes in trends and opinions
as we approach EU referendum day. This is our third monthly tracker poll (April 2016) of the election season
so we now have a good comparison to our previous polls i.e. our February and March 'Tracker' polls, and also
our January/February BIG100 Poll (2,886 responses). So we can see what way the argument is trending.
So here is the way our NI representative Opinion Panel is currently intending
in ending to vote in the EU referendum here are the results from the total poll, balanced and weighted to be reflective of Northern Ireland as a whole.
UK EU Referendum - Total Results - NI April Tracker Poll:
So compared to our March 'Tracker' poll
p 'Remain' is down 6.5%
5% points, 'Leave' is up about 1
% point, and the Undecideds (but intending to vote) has grown back again to 11.8%
11
- up a
very large 5% since our March Poll.
These are fairly big changes from our last March Tracker poll, and with changes like these we often get
comments like the polls are 'all over the place'. Our answer to that is Yes they are! - and Why? - It's because
the people are all over the place on this issue as well. With this EU referendum there is constant movement
from Undecided to Remain, then perhaps to Leave, and then back again perhaps to Undecided (but still
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intending to vote). I'm sure we all know people
p
in Northern Ireland who are going through all these sorts of
changing of minds over their decision on this issue.
However, the vast majority of these poll shifts have been caused by the Unionists - proportionally it's the
Unionists that have hardened
d again towards 'Leave',
'Leave' and the major cause of the 5% growth in the Undecideds
has again been 90% from the Unionist camp. Re. the Unionists, and judging
judging from the comments made by
Unionist poll respondents, this mainly seems to be because of Obama's intervention.
ention. Maybe this goes back to
the days of the Troubles - Unionists have always been suspicious of US intervention in NI political affairs and
maybe Obama's intervention in the UK EU referendum has
ha indirectly reminded Unionists
Unionist of this old US
'interference'
e' as they would see it. This has resulted in a lot of former Unionist Undecideds
ndecideds trending towards
'Leave' and some of the Unionist 'Remains'
emains' now going towards 'Undecided' as well.
As expected Nationalist/Republican voters and Alliance/Green voters are still 80-90%
80 90% solidly for 'Remain', as
per previous polls.
So the above follows the same pattern as
a our February and March 'Tracker' Polls,, and our January/February
BIG100 poll, i.e. there
here is a large (very large!) difference of opinion between the traditional NI Unionist and
Nationalist communities on this issue:
LucidTalk April Opinion Panel 'Tracker' Poll:
Unionist Voters - See Graph below:
So within the Unionist
nionist family 'Remain' has dropped nearly 4 % points, with 'Leave' also dropping by about 5 %
points,, but the big change with Unionists since our March poll has been the large 8% point rise in the
Undecideds (from 9% up to around 17.5%).
17.5%) This seems to show
w that a lot of Unionists who were either 'Leave'
or 'Remain' are now thinking again. In terms of the drop in the 'Remain' vote and the growth in the
Undecideds, a lot of this seems to be,, as mentioned above, a reaction to Obama's comments during his recent
recen
visit.. Unionists didn't seem to like being 'talked down to' like that - as one poll respondent termed it!
All our polling is showing that Unionist
nionists are having much more difficulty making up their minds on this issue
when compared to Nationalist/Republica
ationalist/Republican
n voters and Alliance/Green voters! No doubt there'll be plenty of
more mind changing again among Unionists before June 23rd.
23rd
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Nationalist/Republican Voters - See Graph below:
So no major changes from our March poll with Nationalists/Republicans very much
much supporting 'Remain'. The
only change from March has been a increase in the Undecideds from 1.4% to 6.9% i.e. a similar jump to the
Unionists in terms of the Undecideds.
NB It is noteworthy that, on principal,, a small No. of Nationalist/Republican voters said they weren't intending
to vote at all in the UK EU Referendum stating that as this was a UK-wide
UK wide referendum, and they didn't
consider themselves British, they would therefore not be taking part! You can appreciate their point,
point as unlike
the NI Assembly
ly election the UK EU Referendum is very much a sort of all-UK, all-British
British affair!
On the Nationalist/Republican side there has been in previous polls, and there still is, overwhelming support
for 'Remain', - and that support is still there with Tracker poll
poll with 86% of Nationalist/Republican voters
planning to vote 'Remain' i.e. heading towards 9 out of 10 Nationalists/Republicans voting 'Remain'.
Alliance/Green/Other Voters - See Graph below:
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Similar to the Nationalists/Republicans,
Nationalists/Republicans the Alliance/Green/Others
lliance/Green/Others political family are very solid and
unchangeable in their EU Referendum views, with between 8 to 9 out of 10 supporting 'Remain'. + All the poll
figures for this group have changed less than 1% either way from our March Opinion Panel Tracker
T
poll.
Bigg difference between Males and Females on this issue - See Graphs below:
'
- majority are now either for
Key point - Now only a minority of Males in Northern Ireland support 'Remain'
'Leave' or are 'Undecided' - though in effect these two groups split 50/50.
When we do a Male - Female analysis we find that Males are proportionally more for Leave than Females and this applies across all communities, and incidentally also across all of the UK. NB If we look at this within
the Unionist community we find that over 70% of Male Unionist voters are intending to currently vote 'Leave'.
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Key point - It's the females (across all communities) in NI who seemingly are going to be the main reason for
NI voting overall for 'Remain' - if that, in the end,
end is the final result.
EU Referendum - Reasons for voting decision:
decision
We also again asked about what were the factors that people were considering in terms of making up their
minds about the EU referendum.
The main reasons for people voting 'Remain' were:
(1) NI specifically gains from the EU - business, agriculture, social programs etc.
(2) UK & NI are net beneficiaries from the EU i.e. the UK gets more out than it puts in.
in
(3) To remain in same trading block
ock as Republic of Ireland,
Ireland
As before, and interestingly 'To maintain
aintain cohesion of UK i.e. avoid Scotland leaving UK'
UK figured a bit as a
reason, but not that high up in terms of frequency of mentions.
Again, most of the voluntary comments that came from the
the SDLP and Sinn Fein voters all stressed the
attractiveness of the all-Ireland
Ireland economy and country, in the context of the UK staying in the EU.
In terms of those who said they were going to vote to 'Leave' here are the main factors stated in order of how
popular they were indicated:
borders
(1) Immigration - UK & NI needs more control of its borders.
(2) The EU is becoming an super-state
state not a trading block & not democratically accountable for decisions.
decisions
(3) UK is a net contributor to the EU & NI would gain from the
t saving.
Like our March Opinion Panel Tracker poll the No. 1 reason for voting 'Leave' is Immigration,
mmigration, and lack of
border controls. However, in this April poll this reason was even further ahead of Reason No. (2), showing that
Immigration/Border Controls, and controlling immigration,
immigration is now becoming the overwhelming reason for NI
people voting 'Leave'.
Again, perhaps surprisingly, the reason: 'UK
UK would fully control who it pays benefits to'
to came in way down the
list of reasons in terms of the frequency of mentions etc. This again shows that the 'Leave ' supporters seem
to be more concerned about border and immigration controls, than controlling benefits to immigrants once
they are in the UK?
In addition, the 'Undecideds' showed that the following two factors were uppermost in their minds in terms of
deciding what way to vote in the referendum:
(a) NI specifically gains from the EU - business, agriculture,
agriculture, social programs etc. (reason to remain)
(b) Immigration - UK & NI needs more control of its borders.
borders (reason to leave)
It's key to note, that even among the 'Undecideds', immigration and border controls is an
a increasing concern,
and is in a battle
tle with the gains that NI obtains from EU membership, i.e. in terms of the Undecideds
eventually deciding which way to vote. Again, it's important to note that the majority of the 'Undecideds'
come from the Unionist community.
So it looks as if NI is tending towards a close result with 'Remain' having the edge at the moment. Again its
important to note that nearly two out of three Unionist voters are currently intending to vote Leave! Plus
remember, and as we said before, the result in Great Britain could
co
be very close,, and there is a possibility that
the NI result could end up deciding the overall UK decision. So there's still a lot to play for.
NEXT OPINION PANEL POLL REPORT - Mid May - Re. EU REFERENDUM & other issues
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