e> World Development, Vol. 23, No.5, pp. 819-831,1995 Elsevier Science Ltd Printed in Great Britain 0305-750Xl95 $9.50 + 0.00 Pergamon 030S-750X(95)OOO13-S "Maize is Life": Malawi's Delayed Green Revolution MELINDA SMALE* International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center, Mexico Summary. - The pattern of maize seed development in Malawi demonstrates the importance of farmers' capacity to articulate their interests through collective action and institutions. Despite the vital significance of maize as a wage good in Malawi, limited effective demand for maize seed research prolonged the period of technical stagnation. Analysis of the institutional factors shaping the demand for maize seed research complements previous work on Malawi's political economy. the supply of seed technology and adoption, with implications for current political changes in that nation, the importance of farmers' organizations, and state commitment to agricultural research in sub-Saharan Africa. I. INTRODUCTION When technology is generated by public research institutions, the rate and direction of technological change is affected not only by relative factor prices and the response of the national research system in supplying profitable new technologies, but by the capacity of key interest groups to articulate their demand for innovations through collective action (de Janvry, Sadoulet and Fafchamps, 1989). Pineiro and Trigo (1983) have found that innovations tend to occur when either the producers of a commodity are few, homogeneous and economically powerful (case 1), or when a commodity is of national significance as a wage good or source of foreign exchange (case 2). In case 2, when producers are numerous and unorganized, the state may act in their behalf. Hayami and Ruttan have also underscored the critical role of farmer organizations and political expression in the induced innovation model of technical change (Hayami and Ruttan, 1985, p. 88). This paper argues that although maize in Malawi is of vital significance as a wage good (case 2) and relative factor endowments have long favored changes in maize seed technology, the period of technical stagnation was prolonged, in part, because interest groups could not articulate their demand through collective action. Further, state interventions on the behalf of smallholder maize producers were curtailed by Malawi's estate-based development strategy. Difficulties in obtaining suitable germplasm to use in developing inbred Jines also affected the availability of new technology. By contrast, technology development in the Zimbabwe case presented by Eicher (1994) is consistent with case I, as well as with case 2. The evidence assembled here supports the foHowing hypotheses about the factors that shaped the supply and demand for maize technology in Malawi. First, until recently, the effective demand for maize seed innovations was limited in Malawi. Unlike Zimbabwe, Malawi never developed a community of settler farmers who demanded high-yielding maize varieties and had the political clout to ensure that a public research system was established to develop them. After independence in 1964, the policy emphasis on estate-based economic development gradually marginalized smaHholder agriculture. Malawi's burgeoning tobacco estates had no interest in breeding a maize variety that satisfies the grain texture preferences of smallholders who consume their own maize. Second, as has been documented elsewhere (Kydd, 1989; Smale and Heisey, 1994) the scientific development of a high-yielding maize cultivar with suitable grain texture was delayed principally because the maize research program was constrained by the lack of suitable germplasm, by staffing, funding discontinuities, and development fads!. A number of factors converged during the late 1980s to dramatically alter the rate and direction of technical change in Malawi's maize production. Several of these factors are of particular relevance to the opening themes of this paper. First, in place of the state (Pineiro and Trigo's case 2), donors encouraged the development, on behalf of the interests of small *The author wishes to acknowledge the helpful comments of seminar participants at the Yale Program in Agrarian Studies, C. K. Eicher, P. W. Heisey, J. Rusike, and three anonymous reviewers in the development of this manuscript. Final revision accepted: September 6, 1994. 819 820 WORLD DEVELOPMENT farmers, of high-yielding maize hybrids with the grain texture preferred by farmers who consume and store their own grain. Donor involvement in place of the state reflected the general lack of interest in smallholder agriculture throughout the public sector - a characteristic of what was then a fundamentally undemocratic regime. Second, international collaboration between Malawian and CIMMYT scientists relieved the germplasm constraint, reducing the time-torelease and the cost to the Malawi maize research program of developing new hybrids that meet acceptable grain texture and yield criteria. The ability of the international agricultural research centers to work across national borders is an important modification within the Pineiro and Trigo paradigm. The remainder of the paper is divided into four parts. Section 2 summarizes briefly why technical change in Malawi's maize production is of national significance (Pineiro and Trigo's case 2). Section 3 assembles historical evidence about why the collective action to support changes in maize technology could not evolve in Malawi (as it did in Zimbabwe) and why the actions of the government after independence on behalf of the interests of smallholder maize producers were limited. Section 4 summarizes previous and forthcoming work in explaining how germplasm constraints, grain texture, and other factors affected the supply of maize varietal releases over time. Section 5 draws on other current work to outline recent changes in maize technology among Malawi's smallholders are described. The contribution of the paper lies principally in complementing previous and current work on the supply of maize technology and technology adoption with a perspective that illuminates the role of institutional factors in shaping the demand for maize seed research. 2. MAIZE IN MALAWI Key features of Malawi's agrarian economy illustrate why a yield-increasing technical change in maize production is of national significance. The white, flinty maize produced by Malawi's farmers in the preferred dietary staple for them as well as for urban dwellers. Maize replaced sorghum and millet as the staple food grain only after the tum of this century (Williamson, 1956), but Malawi's per capita consumption of maize as food is today the highest in the world (CIMMYT, 1990). Despite the dominance of maize in the diet, however, the majority of family farms now fail to produce enough maize to meet the requirements of subsistence (Centre for Social Research, 1988)2. Further, most of the maize in Malawi is both produced and consumed in villages. Since official maize markets are often unreliable during stress periods, much of the maize harvest is consumed directly by producers or circulates in village markets or nonmarket exchanges. "Chimanga ndi moyo" (maize is life), and the ideal of producing enough maize to meet household food needs "informs everyone's actions and rationales for their actions before, during and after the maize harvest,") The dominance of maize in the cropping pattern narrows the base of rural economic activities and probably has damaging environmental consequences. At least 80% of the nation's cultivable land area is planted to maize each cropping season (GOMlMOAlPD, 1984-93). Customary fallowing and rotation systems have gradually disappeared as Malawi's farmers expand their monocropped maize area in an effort to meet subsistence requirements with chronically low maize yields. In Malawi, a yield-increasing technical change in maize production can affect the land allocation decisions of smallholders by enabling them to meet their family maize needs on a less extensive crop area. Farmers can then reallocate land from maize to the cultivation of (a) other food crops that are of critical nutritional importance, and (b) the valuable export crops that generate the cash to pay for certain real rural goods and services. Historically, the primary source of public revenues in Malawi's agriculturally based economy has been export crops produced by either plantations, estates, or smallholders. Yield increases in Malawi's maize production are long overdue. Migrations of African populations into the Southern region and land alienation for colonial plantations have contributed to recognized land problems since 1900 (Pachai, 1973; Ross, 1975). The public maize breeding program commenced several years after the Great Famine of 19494• In 1988, several decades later, high-yielding maize cultivars covered only 7% of national maize area (GOMlMOAlPD, 1988). In the following section, evidence about colonial and postcolonial policies and institutions is used to explain why, despite the national importance of maize in Malawi, there was limited effective demand for maize research in Malawi until the I980s. 3. EXPORT-BASED GROWTH AND THE DEMAND FOR MAIZE TECHNOLOGY (a) The colonial period Malawi (formerly Nyasaland) had the smallest extent of land in the former British Central Africa, but because of its relatively favorable agroclimatic environment, supported the largest concentration of African peoples (Pachai, 1973) and was known as an exporter of labor to the mines of the Rand and farms of Rhodesia (Tindall, 1968; Vail, 1977). Compared to Zimbabwe (Southern Rhodesia), however, Malawi (Nyasaland) had few areas of high enough elevation to "MAIZE IS LIFE" attract a European population easily decimated by malaria (Pike, 1968; Willis, 1984). Malawi also lacked rich mineral deposits like those found in Zambia (Northern Rhodesia). Malawi's small European population consisted primarily of missionaries and government officials on temporary assignment, and a handful of planters working for companies based in the United Kingdom (Needham, Mashingaidze and Bhebe, 1984; Tindall, 1968; Wills, 1984). In 1953, the ratio of Europeans to Africans was 1:500, compared to 1:13 in Zimbabwe and I :40 in zambia (Thompson and Woodruff, 1954). At its height, European-held land was 14-15% of the total in Malawi, compared to 50% in Zimbabwe (Pachai, 1973; Thompson and Woodruff, 1954). Without improved transport or a railway to the sea until 1935, Malawi did not develop towns of the size found in the other territories (Tindall, 1968). Nor did Malawi's colonial plantation owners gain the supremacy in policy formulation that the established settler community enjoyed in self-ruled Zimbabwe (Southern Rhodesia). Effective power remained with the Colonial Office in London until the Federation of Rhodesia and Nyasaland in 1953. Even then, unlike in Southern and Northern Rhodesia, the Nyasaland government declined to transfer the responsibility for providing services to non-African farmers to the Federal government (Kettlewell, 1982). According to Gann, "Malawi never became a settler's country in the true meaning of those words" (1971, p. 124). Why? While the plantation export economy was not particularly successful, the market response of African farmers to production and price incentives was remarkable. Throughout the colonial period, Malawi's economy depended on a small number of agricultural exports - coffee, tobacco, tea, cotton and most persistently, rural people. Soon after the initial coffee boom, however, shifts in world market prices, the inefficiency of the transport system (Crosby, 1975; Vail, 1977), lack of technical skills, and the short-term perspective of the planters resulted in a stagnation from which the plantation economy appears never to have recovered (Kydd and Christiansen, 1982). From 1922 to independence, although tea produced on European plantations emerged as an important export crop, the major exports were crops produced by Africans on their own land or on land they sharecropped or leased from Europeans (Baker, 1962). Dark-fired tobacco, produced by Africans on customary landS, dominated the tobacco export crop from 1927 throughout the colonial period (Dean, 1966; Kettlewell, 1982; Rangeley, 1957). In his analysis of the tobacco supply response of African smallholders on customary land, Dean (1966) estimated a supply response as great or greater than those recorded in a number of examples from US and Indian agriculture. 821 Perhaps as a consequence, colonial development policy wavered between overt support of export production by European planters and by African smallholders (Kydd and Christiansen, 1982; Mkandawire and Ferguson, 1992; Pachai, 1973; Wills, 1984). Initially the colonial administration offered few direct incentives to smallholder production. Cash crops were introduced by European planters and taken up by Africans on their own land and under tenancy agreements. After WWII, the colonial administration recognized that there were limited opportunities for expanding European agriculture6, and the development of African agriculture became a primary policy aim (Kettlewell, 1982). In 1962, the Nyasaland Development Plan had as one of its priorities the modernization of agriculture "to increase yields per acre by modernizing farming methods, thereby freeing more land for cash crop production" (p. 53). By that time, the value of African agriculture was four times that of European agriculture (Nyasaland Development Plan, 1962). As part of the general appeal from the Colonial Office to concentrate on increasing food production after WWII, a Master Farmers' Scheme was initiated by the administration in Malawi in an attempt to develop a "yeoman" class of farmers. A combination of stringent qualifications for entering the scheme and tenure issues set the Master Farmers apart from the rest of the rural population. Without the bonus payments they received from the government, the Scheme was unprofitable for the Master Farmers. Although nationalists referred to them as "stooges," many later rebelled against the government. The Scheme was terminated in 1962 (Kalinga, 1993). What happened to maize production in this process? Malawi's colonial planters, unlike Zimbabwe's settler farmers, did not need to concern themselves with feeding plantation laborers and urban workers. The tenurial systems that evolved on Malawi's plantations allowed tenants to feed themselves. In the thangata system of the Southern region, tenants were permitted to cultivate on European plantations in return for rent and labor on the estate (Kydd and Christiansen, 1982). In the "visiting tenant system" of the Central Region, tenants sharecropped tobacco on the plantation but remained independent producers in close association with the traditional community, growing maize and other crops on customary land. In colonial Malawi, there was no class dependent solely upon wages or the sale of cash crops for its livelihood (Pike, 1968). Africans produced the maize they consumed - with the exception of a few skilled workers and those employed by the colonial administration. Wage earners traveled to their homes to work their maize fields at critical points in the growing season. Even in cotton and tobacco-growing areas on customary lands, food crops covered a large proportion of the garden area (Pike, 1968). 822 WORLD DEVELOPMENT After a brief flurry of administrative interest over the potential for maize as an export crop before WWI, maize remained a subsistence crop produced or exchanged by Africans (Rusike, 1994). Questions of maize self-sufficiency did not assume policy importance until the Great Famine of 1948-49. Until then, the plantations depended entirely on Africans to meet domestic maize requirements. Thereafter, maize produced by Europeans in Malawi rose to only 4,000 tons in 1952, as compared to 245,000 tons produced by Europeans in Zimbabwe in that year - some of which was already hybrid maize. Maize sold (excluding consumption) by Africans in Malawi in the same year was ten times the European crop. In Zimbabwe maize sold by Africans was less than a third of the European crop and estimated African production was only 200,000 tons (Thompson and Woodruff, 1954, pp. 137-138). The Great Famine spurred the administration to raise maize prices in order to increase maize marketed. For several years thereafter, marketed maize surpluses were hefty and maize was exported. In the mid-1950s, the inability to find a world market for Malawi's maize led to further policy revision. From then on, the policy of the administration was to set prices in order to coax only enough maize onto official markets to support a small urban population and administration and maintain a modest level of stocks (Kettlewell, 1982).7 Malawi's colonial history had several implications for maize research. First, most incentives for smallholder production were directed to the promotion of export crops. Second, consistent with the approach of Pinerio and Trigo, the fact that the national maize crop was produced by numerous unorganized smallholders rather than a comparatively small group of politically active settler farmers (as in the case of Zimbabwe) meant that there was no means for promoting the development higher yielding maize cultivars. The fact that Malawi was directly administered as a protectorate rather than a colony or Crown Colony also hel ps to explain why the legal institutions to enhance the collective capacity of the European settlers and the seed research, production, and marketing institutions to support maize production were never created (Rusike, 1994). Settler influence on administration was necessarily muted and there were, relatively speaking, more attempts by the administration to "make smallholder agriculture work" as a matter of explicit policy (M. J. Blackie, personal communication). Certainly concern for the reasons behind and the implications of maize monoculture were not expressed in government policy statements until late in the late colonial period, when the maize research program began. Unfortunately, much of the belated colonial effort to support smallholder agriculture through credit plans, Master Farmer schemes and agronomic research for smallholders became the focus of nationalist rhetoric aimed at discrediting the colonial administration during the independence period. (b) From independence After a brief period following independence in 1964, Malawi's estate-based economic development strategy emerged and intensified (Chanock, 1977; Mkandawire and Ferguson, 1992). Historical data show no discernible trend in estateS production as a percentage of the value of total agricultural export production from WWll through independence. From independence, that percentage rose almost consistently from 30 in 1964 to over 80 in the early 1980s (Pryor, 1988, p. 14). By 1981, estates occupied 13% of total cultivated land in Malawi, as opposed to 2% in 1970 (Mkandawire and Ferguson, 1992). This figure is nearly as high as the ceiling percentage alienated to Europeans in Southern Region alone (the smallest region in land area) during the colonial period. New estates established since independence were opened by Malawians. The concept of estate-based development had an economic rationale. Malawi's smallholder export production was an unreliable source of government revenues because it fluctuated considerably from year to year (Barber, 1961; Chanock, 1977; Nyasaland Development Plan, 1962). In the absence of an organized farmer cooperative system, it was easier to create and control a coordinated system to produce, market, and finance research and development among several hundred estates than among over a million smallholders 9 • Economic growth based on large-scale commercial agriculture was a recognized development strategy for an agrarian economy with surplus labor. Greater security of tenure was believed to provide investment incentives. The strategy also became a convenient means for a political elite to gain economic strength (Mtewa, 1986), and for new estate operators to join the elite. The intensification of Malawi's estate-based development strategy was accomplished through both deliberate means and unforeseen opportunities 10. In the 1970s, a number of large corporate estates were opened by holding companies and parastatal marketing institutions with special political status (Gulhati, 1989). Malawian businessmen, politicians and active and retired civil servants were also encouraged to open estates in the spirit of Chitukuko, a term that referred to the development process. The estates were viewed as the training ground for the country's future commercial farmers (Mkandawire, Jaffee and Bertoli, 1990). Estate development was facilitated by favorable access to low-cost financing from the commercial banks and the willingness of village headmen to lease large tracts of land at low cost (Gulhati, 1989; Mkandawire, Jaffee and Bertoli, 1990). The government's policy of restraining wages through discouraging trade unions, controlling inflation, and regulating wages in the private sector contributed to main taining a flow of labor from small farms to estates 823 "MAIZE IS LIFE" (Gulhati, 1989, p. 12). International outmigration was curbed. Structural shifts were reinforced by fortuitous marketing developments. In 1965, the government of Ian Smith issued the Unilateral Declaration of Independence in Zimbabwe. When trade sanctions were subsequently imposed by the United Nations, major international tobacco buyers encouraged Malawi to expand tobacco and sugar production to compensate for reduced Rhodesian output and sales (Chembezi, 1991; Gulhati, 1989; Mkandawire, Jaffee and Bertoli, 1990). After the 1973 Lome convention, Malawi's tobacco also attained preferential access to the EEC market over US and South American tobacco through duty-free market status (Mkandawire, Jaffee and Bertoli, 1990). Similarly, the esclation of the Rhodesian civil war provided the opportunity to fill gaps in technical cadres by hiring Rhodesian farmers as managers of tobacco estates in Malawi. The net result of policies and events was a decline in the prominence of smallholder agriculture in commercial and export production II. The Special Crops Act of 1972 imposed a licensing system for burley and flue-cured tobacco, which were produced by estates, and sold by international auction to the cigarette industry. Smallholders were permitted to produce only dark-fired, sun-cured, and oriental tobacco, which fill a limited international market in plug, roll, snuff and pipe mixtures. Smallholder tobacco was sold to ADMARC, the parastatal marketing institution and holding company that for many years had effective monopsony and monopoly status for agricultural inputs and smallholder crops. Flue-cured and barley production increased annually at an average rate of almost 18% between 1967-82, but smallholder production of dark-fired, sun-cured and oriental tobacco grew at an average annual rate of only 4.7% (Chembezi, 1991). Small farms grew smaller l2 • Land quality declined as maize monocropping increased and more marginal areas were opened for food crop production. Smallholder agriculture was implicitly taxed by a growing differential between adjusted producer prices and prices paid to the marketing board for exports (Kydd and Christiansen, 1982; Lele, 1989). From the I960s, per capita maize output stagnated and the output of other smallholder crops either declined or showed no trend (Kydd and Christiansen, 1982; Lele, 1989). Since independence, Malawi's estate owners were the interest group with the political clout to promote publicly funded maize research. Yet they had only a limited demand for improved maize seed because they grew maize as a secondary crop in rotation with tobacco l3 • They produced only an estimated 8-10% of the nation's maize (Mkandawire, Jaffee and Bertoli, 1990). The true clients of the maize research system were over a million silent smallholders who grew 90% of Malawi's maize with family labor and a hoe. Although their demand was potentially large, their willingness to pay for improved maize seed was virtually unknown. Stratified administratively by region and district and developmentally by holding size qualifications, smallholders could not represent a unified interest group (Christiansen and Kydd, 1985). In those years, the political expression of rural Malawians was also vertically controlled through a strong. effective, single-party system. In terms of the Pineiro and Trigo approach, neither case 1 nor case 2 conditions for maize seed innovations held. 4. GRAIN TEXTURE AND THE SUPPLY OF VARIETAL RELEASES4 (a) The grain texture issue The difference between the interests of estate producers and smallholders is also the key to understanding how the other factor in the maize research equation - the supply of maize varietal releases - was affected by germplasm availability. Estate owners valued yield above all other criteria because they grew maize as a secondary commercial crop or to feed it to their laborers IS. As a commercial crop, maize is not stored on-farm but sold after harvest on official markets, to be stored by the official marketing agency or industrially processed. Smallholders produced maize for consumption as well as for sale, and one characteristic they valued highly was flinty grain texture. Malawi's smallholders need flinty maize to produce nsima, the stiff porridge that is the staple of their diet. The preferred type of nsima is the nearly iridescent porridge made from the refined maize flour called ufa woyera (meaning "white" or "pure" flour). The dominant farmers' varieties, loosely categorized as chimanga cha makola or local maize, have a flinty grain texture. Flinty maize types have a higher proportion of hard starch granules in the kernel than dents. On the farm, they have a higher flour-to-grain extraction rate because the germ separates more easily from the bran when pounded in the mortar. Their tip cover and harder grains protect them longer from the weevils that compete for the family's stored grain supply. Until recently, however, all of the maize hybrids developed by the national research program or imported since independence have been dents. In Malawi, as in other parts of the world, most breeding efforts have emphasized dents because of the belief that dent maizes have higher yield potential than flints (Blackie, 1988). A major contention of this paper is that the emphasis on harvest yields (rather than yield from the mortar) in Malawi also reflected the interests of estate owners since independence. Grain texture does not affect economic returns to the farmer when the maize crop is sold immediately after harvest, but 824 WORLD DEVELOPMENT any yield advantages of dent hybrids are significantly eroded by processing and storage losses when produced for home consumption by smallholders. (b) The rate and type of varietal releases The importance of flint grain texture to smallholders was recognized by Nyasaland's first maize breeder, R. T. Ellis (1959). The most promising of the new cultivars he developed were the flint synthetics SYI7 and SY37 and the flint hybrid LH11. Preindependence pressures within the colonial administration led to Ellis's resignation in 1959. After independence in 1964, the post of plant breeder was filled intermittently by a series of expatriates on short-term contracts (GOMIDOA, 1964-74). Plant breeders had responsibility for both maize and tobacco. Research efforts focused on the testing of existing lines rather than the release of new maize materials. Through much of 1959-67, breeding lines deteriorated because of vacancies and shortage of supplies and funds (zambezi, 1992). In 1967 the hybrid maize research program was officially discontinued (Mloza-Banda, Mtambo and Chavula, 1988). Coincidentally, suspension of the Malawi hybrid program at this point also eliminated any opportunities for borrowing genetic material from the Zimbabwe program during the period when R201 and R215, two early-maturing dent hybrids that have since gained regional popularity, were being developed. In 1971, a British Overseas Development Team led by Bolton was posted to the Malawi research system, with Bolton's research time devoted exclusively to maize. In a series of trials comparing the performance of the hybrids and synthetics bred before independence to imported composite and hybrid materials, Bolton concluded that the dent hybrid SR52 (of Zimbabwean origin), and the semi-flint composite UCA (of Tanzanian origin) were most promising l6 • Bolton described SR52, the highest yielding cultivar in the trials, as appropriate for the few Malawian commercial farmers (estate owners and progressive, surplus-producing smallholders) who could produce it for sale under high-management conditions. National breeding efforts could then be concentrated on the development and adaptation of semi-flint composites for consumption or sale by small farmers (Bolton, 1974). SR52 seed could then be imported directly from Zimbabwe. Through the late 1970s, the government adopted a two-pronged strategy of importing SR52 seed from Zimbabwe for estates and breeding flinty composites for small farmers. This strategy in part reflected the dominant perspective that improved open-pollinated varieties (OPYs, composites and synthetics) are more appropriate for small farmers than hybrids. This perspective was founded on several mistaken beliefs: (i) that all hybrids require high input levels, (ii) that all hybrids have poor storage and hand-pounding characteristics, (iii) that small farmers will never use hybrids without seasonal credit, and (iv) that seed systems for delivering hybrids are necessarily more difficult to maintain than seed systems for the delivering improved OPYs. Instead, the only consistent generalization about seed types is that while breeders recommend that farmers replace hybrid seed every season, they suggest that farmers purchase replacement seed for improved OPYs after two or three seasons. The positive aspect of the two-pronged strategy was that it allocated scarce national research resources to breeding for the mass of smallholders rather than the few estates. In 1977, after a lO-year hiatus, the hybrid maize research program was officially restored (MlozaBanda, Mtambo and Chavula, 1988). One of the motivating forces behind this decision was the high cost of importing SR52 seed for estate production after UN sanctions were imposed on Zimbabwe in 1965. Pressure to replace costly seed imports also led to the release in Malawi of the dent hybrid MHI2 (Malawi Hybrid 12) in 1978. MHI2 is based on SR52 germplasm obtained from Zambia. Releasing MH 12 was only an "import-replacement" strategy. The two-pronged breeding strategy of dents hybrids for estates and progressive, surplUS-producing smallholders and flinty OPYs for the mass of smallholders continued through the 1980s. During 1978-81, the national breeders and technicians developed the lines for the adapted, denty hybrids, MHI4-16, and the semi-flint composites, CCC and CCD. When all of the national breeders left for advanced training in 1981, the technicians maintained the newly developed hybrid and composite lines. In the mid-1980s, the National Seed Company of Malawi (NSCM) obtained foreign exchange clearance to import NSCM41 (Ciba-Geigy 4141, related to Zimbabwe hybrid R201), a denty, short-season hybrid. MHI4-16, CCC and CCD were officially released by the national program. Shortly thereafter, donor pressure to develop flint hybrids intensified J7 • In 1987, when B. T. Zambezi returned from overseas training to assume the post of Chief Maize Breeder, the national maize research team initiated their flint hybrid program. For the first time since the late I950s, grain texture became a breeding objective with both hybrids and open-pollinated varieties. In 1990, B. T. Zambezi, E. M. Sibale and W. G. Nhlane released the national maize program's first adapted, semi-flint hybrids, MHI7 and MHI8. Using a nonconventional breeding technique, dent hybrid material from Malawian lines and flint material from CIMMYT, they were able to develop and release the new hybrids in three years, an unexpectedly short time period. The establishment by CIMMYT in 1985 of their mid-altitude station in "MAIZE IS LIFE" Zimbabwe enabled the direct collaboration between Malawian and CIMMYT scientists that reduced both the time-to-release and the cost to the national research program of developing new hybrids that meet acceptable grain texture and yield criteria. The sustained support and flexibility of the Rockefeller Foundation has since enabled a talented, well-trained team of maize researchers to further their agenda. With the promising new materials in hand, NSCM and a new entrant to that seed industry, Lever Bros., could commence active production and seed sales campaigns. About 30 calendar years passed from the development of the semi-flint hybrid LHl1 to the release of the semi-flints MH17 and MH18. The breeding lines developed during the late 1950s deteriorated in the years following independence. Staffing changes and shifts in breeding strategy between a mixed (hybrid and improved OPV) program and an improved OPV program, and back again, led to dormant periods in hybrid maize breeding. In the 1980s, the three senior breeders traveled back and forth in overseas training programs, while technicians maintained the breeding lines. Staffing and funding discontinuities lengthened the time period before the release of semi-flint hybrids by the national program (see Kydd 1989), but another critical constraint was scientific. Suitable germplasm for developing flinty hybrids was scarce. Inbred lines developed from local flint materials are too tall and their growing season is too long (B. T. Zambezi, personal communication). Exotic flint germplasm was difficult to locate regionally. (c) Comparing maize research in Malawi and Zimbabwe Zimbabwe's maize research story is often cited as one of the two examples (with Kenya) of maize-based "Green Revolutions" in Africa. Malawi's has been cited as a failure (Kydd, 1989). In 1949, 17 years after the hybrid maize program was initiated by H.C. Arnold, the first Zimbabwean hybrid (SR-1) was released but was biologically unstable. Research continued until 1960, when the hybrid SR-52 was released to commercial farmers. By 1968, around 65% of commercial maize area was planted to SR52 (MuirLeresche, 1984). Today, virtually all of both the commercial and communal maize area is planted to hybrids (Rohrbach, 1988). Zimbabwe's maize research team was also small (two to four researchers) but known for its continuity, scientific leadership and commitment (Eicher, 1990). The Zimbabwean team enjoyed several advantages relative to Malawi's national team. First, in breeding 825 for commercial farmers who would grow denty hybrids under high management conditions, the Zimbabwean team had access to a broader international germplasm base because most of the world's hybrids are denty. Second, mass selection 18 by commercial farmers preceded the team's scientific research and provided them with a national germplasm collection as a starting point. Third, Zimbabwe's early research breakthroughs occurred in a comparatively stable and protected scientific environment during 1930-50, long before the major events of its 1965-80 civil war, which culminated in independence in 1980}9 Malawi's first maize research efforts were caught in the transfer of political power from the colonial administration to the independent government, and thereafter, suffered from the shifts in strategy and ideologically based conflicts that often accompany donor financing. One of the most important distinctions between the Malawi and Zimbabwe stories reflects the composition of maize research clientele. In Malawi, both the first and most recent hybrids were semi-flints bred specifically to meet the on-farm processing and storage needs of small farmers. Each of Malawi's senior maize breeders in Malawi recognized the significance of flint texture by breeding either semi-flint hybrids or semi-flint OPVs. Yet the farmers who had the political power to lobby for greater investment in maize research had more interest in grain yield than in grain texture criteria, and more interest in tobacco than in maize research. Eight decades ago, Zimbabwe's settler farmers formed the first farmer associations to promote agricultural interests in the political area. Five decades ago, commercial farmers established the first maize seed association to produce certified maize seed and deliver maize research results to farmers (Eicher, 1994). It is important to recognize that all of the hybrids released by the Zimbabwean team were developed for commercial farmers. The first shorter season Zimbabwean hybrid that was appropriate to small farmer conditions (R200) was not released until 1970 - 21 years after the first hybrid release. R201 and R215, the hybrids that spread most widely in the communal areas (Friis-Hansen, 1992), were released in 1974 and 1976, respectively. Even these hybrids were bred for the commercial farmer operating in marginal areas. They were the product of a program to breed short-seasonlshort-stature maize suitable for use as livestock feed in the sandy-soiled "tobacco belt," and provided a cropping alternative for commercial farmers after tobacco exports were curtailed by trade sanctions imposed by the UN in 1965. It is likely that the subsequent popularity of these cultivars among smallholders is largely incidental. 826 WORLD DEVELOPMENT 5. MALAWI'S EMERGING GREEN REVOLUTION: 1988-93 During 1988-92, the percent of Malawi's smallholder maize area planted in hybrids rose from 7% to 24% (Figure I). Maize hybrids now playa crucial role in national food security. In 1992, a drought year, they represented half of total maize output (Figure I). Other data show that as the percent of smallholders planting hybrids has grown, farmers in smaller size classes are adopting. The most rapid increase in the use of hybrid seed in recent years is observable in Blantyre and Liwonde Agricultural Development Divisions, where farm sizes are considerably smaller than in the Central and Northern Regions (Smale and Heisey, 1994). The stereotype of the hybrid maize grower as a credit-financed, surplus-producing, large farmer is being replaced by a much more diversified picture that includes farmers who purchase inputs with cash, those who grow hybrids primarily for home consumption, and those who grow small plots of early-maturing hybrid maize to sell green in periurban areas (Smale et at., 1991). What explains these changes? First, because they have a flint grain texture, the Malawi hybrids released by the maize research program are appropriate for production by those who consume their own maize. Survey and experimental results show that the semiflint hybrids can be processed and stored on the farm like local maize - consistent with the objectives of smallholders (Smale et at., 1993). Second, trial and demonstration results show that there are, on average, only minor yield differences among the various Malawi hybrids (GOMlDAR, 1987-93). The new flint hybrids are therefore as suitable for sale as dent Hybrid percent of maize area, output 60 50 40 30 I -------l l Outpurl i I ~I I Table I. Ulladjusted meall yields. MOAIUNDPIFAO Fertilizer Demollstratioll Program (MT Hk l ) "Normal" seasons (1989-90, 1990-91, and 1992-93 combined) Local maize Fertilizer rates 0-0 1.0 40-10 1.8 95-37 n.a. Drought year (1991-92) Fertilizer rates Local maize 0-0 0.4 ::1 o Malawi hybrids. The harvest yield performance of the dent hybrids has not been sacrificed to grain texture in the semi-flint hybrids. Third, recent research evidence demonstrates conclusively that both the denty and semi-flint hybrids currently grown in Malawi mature more rapidly and yield more than local maize even under low management conditions with low nitrogen levels (Byerlee and Heisey, 1993; Jones and Heisey, 1994). The figures in Table I, for example, show that both in the drought year and otherwise, unfertilized hybrid maize outyielded unfertilized local maize. Coupled with the greater fertilizer responsiveness of hybrid maize, this finding suggests that at any level of fertilizer application, the expected yield of hybrid maize is greater than the expected yield of local maize. Analysis of extensive on-farm demonstration data show that for any year and for any treatment for which spatial yield distributions could be compared, hybrid maize yield distributions dominated local maize yield distributions in the first order stochastic sense (Jones and Heisey, 1994)20. Flint grain texture has not been the only factor that has contributed to the emerging popularity of hybrids. Farmer adoption rates began to rise before the release of the semi-flint hybrids. Major institutional factors include changes in the organization of seed production and distribution and the design of extension programs. From the beginning of the maize-breeding program until the organization of the National Seed Company of Malawi (NSCM) in 1978, seed multiplication and distribution were the responsibility of the Ministry of Agriculture and the Agricultural Development and Marketing Corporation (ADMARC). During that period, the government relied on imports to meet the demand for hybrids. NSCM has since played a major role in establishing the basis for foundation seed production and maintenance, organizing and training seed growers, and inspecting seed together with 40-10 95-37 I 1980 Figure I. I \ 82 I T-----r- 84 I 86 I I 88 \ I 90 I I 92 Hybrid maize diffusioll ill Malawi. I 0.9 n.a. Hybrid maize 1.6 2.5* 3.8 Hybrid maize 0.8 n.a. 1.9 Source: Jones and Heisey (1994), based on analysis of data from MOAIUNDPIFAO Fertilizer Demonstration Program, 1989-93. *1992-93 only. 827 "MAIZE IS LIFE" government seed officers (Rusike, 1994). In 1990, Cargill21 purchased a majority interest in NSCM. The seed company rationalized operations and embarked on a more aggressive marketing strategy for Malawi maize hybrids. In 1993, Lever Bros. entered the seed industry as a competitor with NSCM. With limited private markets for inputs, the dominant diffusion methods for inputs has been official credit clubs. Official credit clubs are organized and assisted by extension agents employed by the Ministry of Agriculture. Until recently, farmers were instructed to grow hybrid maize only in pure stand with recommended fertilizer levels. The packages distributed to club members were of fixed size and composition. Club members generally used the input amounts and types allocated to them, on one-acre plots. Package diffusion, although easy to administer, restricted farmers' adaptation of the technology to their own conditions. Further, in the early 1980s, only 10-15% of farmer households used credit. Extension messages that were oriented to surplus-producing smallholders, the difficulty of qualifying for credit, and the risk of default curbed the effective demand for hybrid seed. A decade later, the national percentage of smallholders using credit is 30%, and is higher than 30% in the major maize-producing zones. In recognition of the diversity of farmer objectives and the constraints that the smaller farmers face, the extension service has begun to distribute smaller seed and fertilizer packages. In response to recent research results, they are considering a recommendation that cash-constrained farmers purchase semi-flint hybrid seed and small amounts of fertilizer, rather than fertilizer for their local maize. Intercropping of hybrids is no longer discouraged. The 1980s was also a period of major changes in Malawi's economy. Population pressures caused by returning migrants and Mozambican refugees, and the closure of port outlets with the Mozambican civil war meant insecurity of transport and rising import costs (Lele, 1989). The exorbitant costs of transporting fertilizer inland led to the gradual substitution of highanalysis (higher nutrient content per unit weight of fertilizers) for low-analysis fertilizers. The price of nitrogen relative to the price of maize fell slightly over the past two decades (Smale and Heisey, 1993), increasing the incentives for applying fertilizer to maize, and because hybrids are more responsive to fertilizer than local maize, encouraging the use of hybrids. The dire social consequences of household food insecurity may also have become more widely recognized by the official community as the decade of the 1980s unfolded (e.g., Centre for Social Research, 1988). As that recognition spread in the official and donor community, the pressure to generate high-yielding maize of suitable grain texture for small farmers mounted. Another factor has not yet been fully researched but may be contributing to changes in smallholder maize cultivation practices. In recent years, the desire of smallholders to obtain a license to grow burley tobacco and to secure their tenure in leasehold rather than customary rights has contributed to differentiation among estates. Nearly half of Malawi's leasehold estates are now under 20 hectares. Many are operated by farm families or middle-ranking civil servants who registered customary land they had cultivated for years. The rapid emergence of "graduated smallholder" estates (Mkandawire, Jaffee and Bertoli, 1990) may have finally generated the demonstration and learning effects so inappropriately attributed to the large corporate and private estates of the 1970s. The smaller estates may also embody the learning effects of the larger estates. 6. CONCLUSIONS Although Malawi's configuration of agroclimatic conditions, population density and dietary preferences have favored technical change in maize production, farmer adoption of improved maize seed has been slow. The supply-side reason why technical change in maize production has not occurred is that the maize research, seed production and distribution systems did not provide a high-yielding maize type with the grain texture suitable for smallholders who consume and sell their maize, in sufficient qualities and at a price they were willing to pay. As a complement to this observation, which has been made elsewhere in the literature on maize research in Malawi (e.g., Kydd, 1989), this article proposes an explanation about the demand for maize research that is equally simple but has important implications for the future of agriculture research in sub-Saharan Africa. Unlike in Zimbabwe and Kenya, the European population in Malawi during the colonial period had neither the demand for high-yielding maize varieties nor the political clout to ensure that a strong national research system was developed. Following independence in 1964, Malawi's estate owners were politically influential but they were more concerned with enhancing exports such as tobacco, and more interested in maize yield than grain texture criteria. Malawi's maize research clients have always been over a million smallholders who lacked the formal organization and supporting political institutions to enable them to articulate their research needs to the government. Moreover, as the recent market experience Cargill and Lever Bros. suggests, smallholders have also been prevented by price controls from communicating their demands to the private sector. In the Pineiro and Trigo paradigm, the conditions for successful collective action by maize producers 828 WORLD DEVELOPMENT were not satisfied in Malawi. Pineiro and Trigo argue that in similar cases, when the commodity is of national significance as a wage good or a source of foreign exchange, the state may act on behalf of numerous, unorganized producers. Yet although maize is a vital wage good in Malawi, national development policy has not acted on behalf of the ultimate beneficiaries of technological change in maize. One interpretation of this story is that the government has too long monopolized maize development in Malawi or has directed maize research away from being responsive to small farmers' needs. In any case, regardless of the optimal mix of public and private sector activity, the government has the responsibility of ensuring that maize seed research and development can respond to farmer demand. Malawi's ongoing process of political change may now permanently affect how interest groups engage in collective action in that nation. While the evidence presented here argues for the importance of farmer organizations in shaping the demand for technical change, the converse may also be true. Bates (1993) has recently argued, based on evidence from Asia and .Latin America, that one previously unrecognized but positive political consequence of technical change is the growth of farmer organizations and industrial lobbies protective of agrarian incomes. The process of technological change in maize seed may have been slow in Malawi, but individual maize breeders have always oriented their research, in principal and in part, to the perceived needs of smallholders. What is revolutionary about Malawi's hybrid maize research program since 1990 was, however, unanticipated. First, the semi-flint hybrids yield almost as much as Malawi's denty hybrids but can be processed and stored on the farm like local maize consistent with the objectives of either commercial farmers or smallholders. Second, agronomic research is demonstrating that the semi-flint hybrids perform well compared to local varieties even under low-input and low-management conditions. One of the reasons why MHI7 and MH18 hold so much promise is because, after a long gestation period, the technology released by the national program appears to be well adapted to both agroclimatic conditions and smallholders' objectives. This positive outcome illustrates the potential for localIy adapted maize hybrids to spread among Africa's smallholders, particularly where private seed companies work in partnership with public breeding programs. In Malawi, ongoing technical innovation in maize production, if adequately supported by the development of private and public institutions, could become a smalIholder "Green Revolution." NOTES 1. For example, until recently, research in international agriculture research centers (lARCs) such as CIMMYT focused almost exclusively on population improvement and the development of open-pollinated varieties (OPVS) over hybrids because of their conviction, and that of the development community in general, that OPVs were more suitable for cash-constrained small farmers and for the agenda of international public breeding programs. Other examples include "integrated rural development," "basic needs," "farming systems research," and more recently. "sustainability." 2. Increasing reliance on purchased grain to meet subsistence requirements does not reflect growing cash incomes among smallholders. Long-term trends in the real wage and off-farm employment opportunities are stagnant or negative (Sahn and Arulpragasam. 1991). collectively and the rights for its use are allocated by traditional authorities. 6. When the Nyasaland government declined special Federal support to European settlers during the Federation of Rhodesia and Nyasaland. European tea planters established their own tea research organization. 7. Additional detail on the administration's response to the Great Famine is found in Vaughan (1987). 8. The Land Bill of 1965 defines an estate in terms of a legal conception rather than a farm size. Any freehold or leasehold land held under some form of documentary or registered title is an estate - although all such enterprises were large before the 1980s. 4. Although the colonial administration began to screen varieties as early as 1909, active breeding work did not commence until the 1950s with the appointment of R. T. Ellis to service (Rusike, 1994). 9. For example, the 1980/1 National Sample Survey of Agriculture estimated 1.2 million smallholdings with an average area of one hectare and an average of 4.5 persons per holding. Data compiled by Mkandawire, Jaffee and Bertoli (1990) indicate about 1,300 leasehold estates in 1980, with an average size of 80 hectares. Through 1970, only 229 leasehold estates were registered; with an average size of 345 hectares. 5. Customary land, then known as Native Trust Land (land kept in trust for Africans by the Crown of England), is held 10. In a number of articles and papers, Kydd and Christiansen have detailed how the development strategy 3. From villagers' statements reported in Peters and Herrara (July 1989. pp. 47-48). "MAIZE IS LIFE" was implemented and what have been its effects. For example, see Kydd and Christiansen (1982). • II. The Government did invest in several large Integrated Rural Development Projects in the late 1960s (the Lilongwe Land Development Program, Lower Shire Valley Project, Karonga Project and Central Regional Lakeshore Project) and a number of smaller rural development programs during the late I970s, but Christiansen and Kydd (1987) describe the results of these interventions as disappointing. Kalinga (1993) notes that the World Bank-financed Integrated Rural Development Projects replaced the original Master Farmers' Scheme, and speculates about the extent to which these farmers reemerged under a different guise after independence. 12. The extent to which farm size distributions have been affected by rising population density or land alienation to estates is the subject of controversy - in part because of difficulties in measurement and in reconciling data sources. Certainly the estates established in the 1980s, described by Mkandawire, Jaffee and Bertoli (1990) as "graduated smallholders," compete for land with smallholders still farming land registered as customary. These recently established estates, small in size, are primarily an attempt to secure customary land rights under leasehold status as well as to acquire certain rights previously held exclusively by estate owners, such as the right to grow burley tobacco and auction it to international buyers. 13. Tobacco research was funded through earnings from both smallholder and estate-produced exports. 14. For more details on the history of the maize varietal research in Malawi, see the provocative article by Kydd (1989), and update by Smale and Heisey (forthcoming). For more on institutional aspects of the supply side of maize research (including agronomic research), see Kydd (1989) and more recently, Blackie and Jones (1993). 15. The limited evidence available suggests that estates continue to allocate land for tenants to produce their own local maize, but where estates produce maize to feed laborers, they grow hybrids. In general, estates generally produce both hybrid and local maize. Certainly a key research issue that remains to be explored is why, for both the colonial and the independence period, the equilibrium solution between 829 the estate owners and their labor source was not to produce the type of maize that suited laborers' or tenants' demands. To do so might have reduced the price of the main wage good and released land and labor for further cash crop production. 16. The designations "semi-flint" and "semi-dent" are based on a kernel index developed by R. Ward and B. T. Zambezi that classifies maize types on a grain texture continuum from flint to dent, based on controlled tests. 17. Some of the flinty, improved OPVs had performed well in farmers' fields, household mortars and on-farm granaries (see Kydd, 1989). But the comparative yield evidence is sketchy (see also Hildebrand and Poey, 1985), and improved OPVs were never produced and distributed commercially in large enough volumes to track farmers' responses through more than a few isolated case studies. 18. Mass selection is one of two methods of population selection, and is often called pure phenotypic selection. In mass selection, the farmer chooses a mature plant or cob based on the characteristics he or she observes, and plants the grain from that plant or cob as seed. The seed contains only the genetic contribution of the female plant, since at maturity, it has already crossed. Progeny selection is when, instead of saving the harvested grain for seed, the farmer or breeder saves the original seed of the plant whose phenotype he or she wishes to reproduce or cross. 19. 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