IEEJ:December 2016 © IEEJ2016 Oil Market Review in Japan No. 35/2016 December 16, 2016, Friday Released at 14:00 every Friday Publisher: Oil Information Center, Institute of Energy Economics, Japan Inui Bldg. Kachidoki, 11th Floor, 13-1, Kachidoki 1-chome, Chuo-ku, Tokyo, 104-8581 Japan https://eneken.ieej.or.jp/en/weekly_oil/index.php ■ Overview On the NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) in the November 24-30 week, the key WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil futures contract ranged between $45.23 per barrel and $49.44/bbl, rising substantially on the first decision to cut crude oil production by OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) at its ministerial conference in eight years after moving nervously toward the OPEC conference. On December 1, the January contract rose further with a substantial gain as Russia indicated a policy of reducing crude oil production after the OPEC production cut decision on the previous day. Also supporting buying was the dollar’s depreciation against the euro that made crude oil prices relatively lower. The contract closed at $51.06/bbl, up $1.62/bbl from the previous day, topping the psychological barrier of $50/bbl. On December 2, the key contract rose for the third straight day on the dollar’s further depreciation against the euro to make crude oil prices relatively lower, as well as on a reported U.S. Congress plan to extend the Iran Sanctions Act for 10 years, although buying welcoming the OPEC production cut decision came to a pause, with profit-taking selling emerging. The January contract closed at $51.68/bbl, up $0.62/bbl. On December 5 after bullish market sentiment in the previous week, the key contract rose for the fourth straight market day and reached a temporary high of $52.42/bbl, the highest in 17 months since mid-July 2015, as OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo announced that major oil producing countries including Russia would meet at OPEC Headquarters in Vienna on December 10. The January contract finished at $51.79/bbl, up $0.11/bbl. On December 6, the key oil futures contract turned down for the first time in five market days as skepticism about the OPEC production cut agreement grew on a Reuters report that OPEC production in November hit an all-time high of 3,419 bpd (barrels per day), with Russia boosting its production to a 30-year high. The January contract lost $0.86/bbl to $50.93/bbl. On December 7, the key contract fell further as pessimism about the OPEC production cut conditioned on non-OPEC oil producing countries’ coordinated cut grew before the December 10 meeting of major oil producing countries. Another factor behind the fall was a weekly EIA (Energy Information Administration) oil inventory report including increased petroleum product inventories. The January contract posted a decline of $1.16/bbl to $49.77/bbl. The Asian benchmark crude oil of Dubai for January delivery on the Tokyo market in the previous week moved within a range between $44.30/bbl and $45.80/bbl. It ended at $49.70/bbl on December 1, at $50.10/bbl on December 2, at $50.80/bbl on December 5, at $51.70/bbl on December 6 and at $51.00/bbl on December 7. On the foreign exchange market in the previous week, the dollar appreciated against the yen further, ranging between 112.24 yen and 113.78 yen. It changed hands at 114.39 yen in late trading on December 1, at 113.71 yen on December 2, at 113.81 yen on December 5, at 113.58 yen on December 6 and at 114.18 yen on December 7. According to preliminary 10-day trade statistics released by the Ministry of Finance on December 8, the average crude oil import CIF price in the November 11-20 period stood at 32,868 yen/kl (kiloliter), up 1,807 yen/kl from the previous 10-day period. In dollars, the price was $50.12/bbl, up $2.73/bbl. The average exchange rate was 104.26 yen to the dollar. Wholesale prices of gasoline and middle distillates that major Motouri (petroleum products wholesalers) applied to the second week of December were raised by 2.0-4.0 yen/l (liter). Crude oil procurement cost rose as crude oil prices increased, with the yen depreciating against the dollar. Japan’s average retail price on December 5 stood at 126.0 yen/l for gasoline, up 0.4 yen/l from a week earlier, at 105.2 yen/l for diesel oil, up 0.4 yen/l, and at 68.2 yen/l for kerosene (heating oil), up 1.6 yen/l. The gasoline price rose for the first in four weeks. The diesel price increased for the first time in three weeks. The kerosene price went up for the eighth straight week. In the first week of December, Motouri companies lowered wholesale prices of petroleum products by up to 1.0 yen or raised them by up to 2.0 yen/l, as crude oil cost ($/b) From increased. From Crude oil This week a week earlier Crude oil runs Supply/ Topper capacity Demand utilization rate Crude oil inventories Middle Eastern crude oil (TOCOM) WTI crude oil (NYMEX) Crude oil import CIF (%) 11/27 ~ 12/3 〃 - 89.6 ▲ 1.2 → - 12/5 50.79 ($/bbl) 12/5 51.79 179 ▼ ▲ 5.61 ▲ 11.6 ▲ 4.71 ▲ 14.1 - 145.29 [NYMEX]WTI crude oil 138.54 [TOCOM]MiddleEastern crude oil 130.0 120.0 110.0 100.0 90.0 119.37 120.92 113.93 110.33 99.62 89.47 80.0 78.21 86.84 72.68 70.0 50.12 ▲ 2.73 ▲ 2.62 60.0 〃 32,868 ▲ 1,807 ▼ -3,345 50.0 (yen/dollar) 〃 104.26 ▼ -0.05 ▲ 16.95 (yen/dollar) 12/5 114.81 ▼ -1.57 ▲ 9.43 rate TTS exchange rate ②Yen-dollar exchange ▲ ($/bbl) (yen/kl) CIF price 52 ▲ Mid Nov ①Crude oil import ▲ 14,990 150.0 140.0 3,778 12/3 (1,000 kl) ($/bbl) price Prices (1,000 kl) a year earlier 40.0 30.0 20.0 12/5 1/5 1/5 1/5 1/5 1/5 1/5 1/5 1/5 1/5 1/5 1 IEEJ:December 2016 © IEEJ2016 Oil Market Review in Japan No. 35/2016 (Unit: 1,000 kl, yen/l) From This week Gasoline a week earlier 11/27 ~ Production Supply/ Demand 1,062 ▼ -35 ▲ Shipments 〃 971 ▼ -59 ▼ - Exports 〃 107 ▲ 85 ▲ - 1,619 ▼ -16 ▼ - average lorry rack price] (RIM) (TOCOM/ Futures [front-month contract/closing price] Tokyo Bay) (TOCOM/ Chubu) Retail prices [weekly (published trend] by ANRE) n.a. - n.a. Gyoten (spot) [4-district 11/29 ~ 12/5 45.0 ▲ 2.1 ▲ 0.4 11/29 ~ 12/5 45.9 ▲ 1.7 ▲ 0.4 12/5 47.0 ▲ 3.5 ▲ 2.0 12/5 126.0 ▲ 0.4 ▼ -1.8 This week a week earlier Supply/ 11/27 ~ 812 ▲ 7 ▼ Shipments 〃 684 ▲ 60 ▼ - Exports 〃 193 ▲ 124 ▲ - 1,481 ▼ -65 ▲ - 12/3 (RIM) (TOCOM/ Futures [front-month contract/closing price] Tokyo Bay) (TOCOM/ Chubu) Retail prices [weekly (published trend] by ANRE) n.a. - n.a. average lorry rack price] 120.0 115.0 110.0 105.0 12/5 45.4 ▲ 1.5 ▼ -3.9 11/29 ~ 12/5 44.8 ▲ 1.8 ▲ 2.0 - 12/5 105.2 - ▲ 0.4 11/9 12/5 (¥/L) 115.0 Diesel oil (retail) 110.0 n.a. 11/29 ~ 12/5 10/11 a year earlier 〃 Gyoten (spot) [4-district Prices 12/3 From Imports Inventories 123.0 9/12 From Demand 126.0 125.0 (Unit: 1,000 kl, yen/l) Production 130.0 n.a. *Gyoten and futures prices are before tax Diesel oil Gasoline (retail) a year earlier 〃 12/3 135.0 From Imports Inventories Prices 12/3 (¥/L) 105.2 105.0 102.5 100.0 95.0 - ▼ -3.8 *Gyoten and futures prices are before tax 90.0 9/12 10/11 11/9 12/5 (¥/L) (Unit: 1,000 kl, yen/l) From This week Kerosene a week earlier 11/27 ~ Production Supply/ Demand 433 ▲ 27 a year earlier ▼ 〃 n.a. Shipments 〃 560 ▲ 121 ▼ - Exports 〃 0 → 0 → - 2,232 ▼ -127 ▼ - Gyoten (spot) [4-district 12/3 average lorry rack price] (RIM) (TOCOM/ Futures [front-month contract/closing price] Tokyo Bay) (TOCOM/ Chubu) Retail prices [weekly (published trend] by ANRE) n.a. Kerosene (retail) - Imports Inventories Prices 12/3 75.0 From n.a. 11/29 ~ 12/5 50.4 ▲ 2.0 ▲ 5.7 11/29 ~ 12/5 50.1 ▲ 2.3 ▲ 6.0 12/5 51.0 ▲ 4.5 ▲ 8.0 12/5 68.2 ▲ 1.6 ▼ -5.7 70.0 68.2 65.0 63.9 60.0 55.0 9/12 10/11 11/9 12/5 2 IEEJ:December 2016 © IEEJ2016 Oil Market Review in Japan No. 35/2016 ■ Relevant Information Overseas crude oil prices 1 On December 7, the most frequently traded WTI futures contract on the NYMEX fell further as pessimism grew about the December 10 meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC oil producing countries at OPEC Headquarters in Vienna, given that the November 30 OPEC production cut decision was conditioned on a coordinated production cut by non-OPEC oil producing countries. The weekly EIA oil inventory report said that although crude oil inventories posted a decline of 2.4 million barrels from a week earlier, faster than a market forecast decrease of 1 million barrels, gasoline inventories expanded by 3.4 million barrels (against a market forecast increase of 1.8 million barrels) and middle distillate inventories by 2.5 million barrels (against a market forecast increase of 1.8 million barrels). The report led concern to grow about oversupply in the United States. The January contract lost $1.16/bbl from the previous day to $49.77/bbl, slipping below $50/bbl for the first time in five market days. The February contract also fell by $1.03/bbl to $50.94/bbl. According to the EIA, the average U.S. retail price of gasoline as of December 5 increased by 5.4 cents per gallon from a week earlier to $2.208/gal (66.9 yen/l). The average diesel oil price went up by 6.0 cents/gal to $2.480/gal (75.1 yen/l). The gasoline price increased for the first time in four weeks. The diesel price rose for the first time in five weeks. 2 Petroleum products supply and demand in Japan (1) Shipments According to a weekly report by the PAJ (Petroleum Association of Japan), inactive topper capacity during the November 27-December 3 week came to 111,000 bpd, up 41,000 bpd from the previous week (total capacity stood at 3,790,000 bpd). Crude oil throughput in the week grew by 52,000 kl (kiloliters) from the previous week to 3,778,000 kl. From a year earlier, it rose by 75,000 kl. The topper capacity utilization rate stood at 89.6%, up 1.2 percentage points from a week earlier and up 4.6 points from a year earlier. Output decreased from the previous week for gasoline, Fuel Oil A and Fuel Oil C while increasing for other petroleum products. Output was down 3.2% for gasoline, up 4.8% for jet fuel, up 6.8% for kerosene, up 0.9% for diesel oil, down 2.7% for Fuel Oil A and down 11.4% for Fuel Oil C. Fuel Oil C imports in the week totaled 45,000 kl, up 43,000 kl from the previous week. Diesel oil exports aggregated 193,000 kl, up 124,000 kl. Shipments (sales volume) in the week decreased from the previous week for gasoline and Fuel Oil C and increased for other petroleum products. From a year earlier, shipments increased only for jet fuel and decreased for others. While crude oil prices continued to rise with retail gasoline prices increasing for the first time in four months, gasoline shipments decreased by 5.7% from the previous week to 971,000 kl. They decreased week on week for the first time in three weeks and year on year for the first time in 10 weeks, slipping below 1 million kl for the first time in two weeks. Shipments totaled 78,000 kl for jet fuel (up 75.3% from the previous week), 560,000 kl for kerosene (up 27.4%), 684,000 kl for diesel oil (up 9.6%), 265,000 kl for Fuel Oil A (up 1.7%) and 285,000 kl for Fuel Oil C (down 12.2%). (Unit: 1,000 kl) This week (11/27 ~ 12/3) From Previous week (11/20 ~ a week earlier 11/26) 971 1,030 ▼ -59 (-6%) 78 44 ▲ 34 ( 77%) 560 439 ▲ 121 ( 28%) Diesel oil 684 624 ▲ 60 ( 10%) Fuel oil A 265 261 ▲ 4 (2%) Fuel Oil C 285 325 ▼ -40 (-12%) 2,843 2,723 ▲ 120 (4%) Gasoline Jet fuel Kerosene (heating Oil) Total This week’s shipments = (Previous weekend inventories + This week’s production + This week’s imports) - (This week’s exports + This weekend inventories) 2 Petroleum products supply and demand in Japan (2) Inventories Inventories as of December 3 increased from a week earlier only for Fuel Oil C and decreased for other petroleum products. From a year earlier, inventories increased only for diesel oil and decreased for others. Gasoline inventories totaled 1,619,000 kl, down 16,000 kl from a week earlier and down 58,000 kl from a year earlier. Kerosene inventories totaled 2,232,000 kl, down 127,000 kl from a week earlier and down 614,000 kl from a year earlier. Diesel oil inventories totaled 1,481,000 kl, down 65,000 kl from a week earlier and up 106,000 kl from a year earlier Fuel Oil A inventories totaled 710,000 kl, down 7,000 kl from a week earlier and down 52,000 kl from a year earlier. Fuel Oil C inventories totaled 1,877,000 kl, up 15,000 kl from a week earlier and down 281,000 kl from a year earlier. (Unit: 1,000 kl) From This week Previous week (12/3) (11/26) Gasoline 1,619 1,635 ▼ -16 (-1%) Jet fuel 949 962 ▼ -13 (-1%) 2,232 2,359 ▼ -127 (-5%) Diesel oil 1,481 1,546 ▼ -65 (-4%) Fuel oil A 710 717 ▼ -7 (-1%) Fuel Oil C 1,877 1,862 ▲ 15 (1%) 8,868 9,081 ▼ -213 (-2.3%) Kerosene (heating Oil) Total a week earlier 3 IEEJ:December 2016 © IEEJ2016 Oil Market Review in Japan No. 35/2016 Petroleum products wholesale prices in Japan (1) Wholesale price revision trend 3 Between November 29 and December 5, crude oil cost apparently rose as crude oil prices went up, with the yen depreciating against the dollar. Onshore cargo spot prices in the week moved between 97 and 101 yen/l for gasoline, between 44 and 47 yen/l for diesel oil and between 48 and 53 yen/l for kerosene, firming generally in response to crude oil price hikes. Offshore barge spot prices moved between 96 and 101 yen/l for gasoline, between 46 and 48 yen/l for diesel oil and between 49 and 53 yen/l for kerosene. The key futures price ranged between 97 and 102 yen/l for gasoline, between 43 and 47 yen/l for diesel oil and between 47 and 52 yen/l for kerosene, rising from the previous week. Motouri raised wholesale prices of petroleum products by 2.0-4.0 yen/l. On December 8, EMG Marketing notified that it would raise its onshore spot direct sales prices by 2.0 yen/l for gasoline and by 3.0 yen/l for other petroleum products for shipments from December 10. 3 Petroleum products wholesale prices in Japan (2) Spot (Gyoten) and futures price trend (RIM) As wholesale prices of petroleum products were raised, with crude oil cost rising, spot petroleum products prices firmed. Weekly gasoline sales volume fell back below 1 million kl after topping the level in the previous week for the first time in 12 weeks. The latest onshore cargo spot price (the average onshore rack price for four districts -- Chiba, Kawasaki, Chukyo and Hanshin - for November 29 through December 5) that influences Motouri’s wholesale prices applied to the second week of December (December 8-14) rose by 2.1 yen/l for gasoline, by 2.0 yen/l for kerosene and by 1.5 yen/l for diesel oil. The average offshore barge spot price in Tokyo Bay went up by 1.5 yen/l for gasoline, by 2.8 yen/l for kerosene and by 0.7 yen/l for diesel oil. The key futures price rose by 1.7 yen/l for gasoline, by 2.3 yen/l for kerosene and by 1.8 yen/l for diesel oil. As crude oil cost rose on crude oil price hikes and the yen’s depreciation, spot petroleum products prices generally firmed. Wholesale prices of petroleum products for the second week of December rose by 2.0-4.0 yen/l. Motouri companies based wholesale price revisions on crude oil and petroleum products market prices and each other’s prices from 2010 and have adopted an approach giving greater priority to crude oil acquisition cost since June 2014. (Unit: yen/l) [4-district This week average lorry rack price] Spot Prices (11/29 ~ 12/5) Previous week (11/22 ~ From a week 11/28) earlier Regular 45.0 42.9 ▲ 2.1 Kerosene 50.4 48.4 ▲ 2.0 Diesel oil 45.4 43.9 ▲ 1.5 This week Previous week (TOCOM) (Unit: yen/l) [Front-month contract/closing price] [Average] Futures Price (11/29 ~ 12/5) (11/22 ~ From a week 11/28) earlier Regular 45.9 44.2 ▲ 1.7 Kerosene 50.1 47.8 ▲ 2.3 Diesel oil 44.8 43.0 ▲ 1.8 Above prices are before tax. Reference (November 29 - December 5 actual data) (Unit: yen/l) Products Spot Futures Average Gasoline 2.1 1.7 1.9 Kerosene 2.0 2.3 2.2 Diesel oil 1.5 1.8 1.6 Fuel Oil A 1.5 (Source) Spot: RIM 4-district average lorry rack price (Chiba, Kawasaki, Chukyo, Hanshin) Futures: TOCOM average offshore barge spot price for Keihin District 4 Retail prices of petroleum products in Japan The average retail service station price as of December 5 rose by 0.4 yen/l from a week earlier to 126.0 yen/l for gasoline, by 0.4 yen/l to 105.2 yen/l for diesel oil and by 1.6 yen/l to 68.2 yen/l for kerosene. The gasoline price fell for the first time in four weeks. The diesel oil price fell for the first time in three weeks. The kerosene price increased for the eighth consecutive week. Gasoline prices increased in 31 prefectures, remained unchanged in nine and decreased in seven. The lowest gasoline price among the prefectures was 120.5 yen/l in Saitama Prefecture (down 0.3 yen/l from a week earlier). The second lowest was 122.1 yen/l in Chiba (up 0.3 yen/l). The highest price was 134.3 yen/l in Nagasaki (unchanged). Posting the largest price hike of 1.9 yen/l was Fukui (127.6 yen/l). Recording the fastest drop of 0.3 yen was Saitama (120.5 yen/l). While crude oil cost rose, the average retail gasoline price increased for the first time in four weeks. Motouri companies this week raised wholesale petroleum product prices by 2.0-4.0 yen/l. As crude oil cost rose on crude oil price hikes and the yen’s depreciation, Motouri companies raised wholesale gasoline prices. Given the Motouri wholesale price trend, retail gasoline and kerosene prices are likely to increase next week. (Unit: yen/l) (Published by ANRE)[Weekly This week Previous week (12/5) (11/28) 126.0 125.6 ▲ 0.4 Kerosene 68.2 66.6 ▲ 1.6 08/8/11 132.1 Diesel oil 105.2 104.8 ▲ 0.4 trend] Regular From a week earlier Latest high 08/8/4 185.1 Nationwide average cash retail price (including consumption tax) Retail Price Since April 2007, 2,000 service stations have been covered. Latest highs are highest levels since 08/8/4 167.4 October 2003. 4 IEEJ:December 2016 © IEEJ2016 Oil Market Review in Japan No. 35/2016 Gasoline price trend (2016/9/26 ~ 130.0 2016/12/5) (¥/L ) (¥/L) Left scale: retail prices 60.0 Retail price 120.0 55.0 110.0 50.0 RIM (offshore barge) RIM (onshore) 100.0 45.0 TOCOM/ futures, Chubu 90.0 40.0 TOCOM/ futures, Tokyo Bay 80.0 35.0 Right scale: RIM and futures prices 70.0 9/26 30.0 10/3 10/11 10/17 10/24 10/31 11/7 11/14 11/21 11/28 12/5 Retail price RIM (offshore barge) TOCOM ( futures, Tokyo Bay) TOCOM ( futures price, Chubu) RIM (onshore) (Note) ① Retail price includes consumption Tax, RIM, TOCOM prices are before tax. ② RIM (onshore) is the aberage of four district . 5 IEEJ:December 2016 © IEEJ2016 Oil Market Review in Japan No. 35/2016 ■ Announcement This report is available at the center’s website (http://eneken.ieej.or.jp/en/). The next issue (No. 36or 2016) will be announced at 14:00 on December 22 . On use of this report The copyrights to texts, graphics and other information (hereinafter combined into “documents”) in this report belong to the Oil Information Center of the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (hereinafter referred to as this Center), or to third parties contributing the documents to this Center. This Center forbids the documents from being repurposed, duplicated or altered without approval by this Center. This Center has made the documents comprehensive but no guarantee is made as to accuracy or safety. Weekly Oil Market Review In an interim report compiled in May 2004 by a petroleum products market trend study panel sponsored by the Petroleum Distribution and Retail Division of the Natural Resources and Fuel Department at the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, the panel stated, “We hope that the Japanese oil industry will solidify its market and price-finding functions and that the oil industry as a mainstay industry in Japan will further enhance its rationality and vitality over a medium term as industry people deepen their understanding of the need for rational price recognition based on market and price-finding functions to be established in the oil industry and for business decisions based on recognition under the principle of self-responsibility.” In response to the report, this Center has published the Weekly Oil Market Review as a tool for oil-related people, business administrators (particularly service station managers) and ordinary consumers to accurately understand crude oil and petroleum products supply and demand and price trends, in cooperation with relevant organizations such as the Petroleum Association of Japan and the Zensekiren (Japan’s Dealers Association) since May 2005. Sources of data provided in this report ① [Crude oil and petroleum products supply and demand] (weekly PAJ report) Data in weekly statistics on crude oil and petroleum product supply by the Petroleum Association of Japan are calculated in terms of 1,000 kiloliters. Shipments are estimated by this Center. ② [Crude oil and futures prices] (WTI crude and Middle Eastern crude) For the WTI crude, the front-month WTI crude futures contract’s daily closing price on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) is adopted. For the Middle Eastern crude, the front-month Middle Eastern crude futures contract’s closing price on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) is adopted. *”Secondmonth (next-month) contract” Underlying the Middle Eastern crude price is the average price for the Dubai and Oman crude oil. The telegraphic transfer middle rate (TTM) released by the Bank of TokyoMitsubishi UFJ is adopted as the foreign exchange rate. The crude oil import CIF price is a dollar-denominated reference price estimated by the PAJ based on the average crude oil price (on a 10-day basis) in the Ministry of Finance trade statistics. ③[Motouri wholesale prices of petroleum products in Japan] Motouri wholesale prices are prices for transactions between Motouri petroleum products wholesalers (primary wholesalers) and their affiliates (secondary wholesalers). Motouri companies modified their new pricing system in April 2010 to decide specific policies in comprehensive consideration of crude oil and petroleum products market prices, each other’s prices and other data. In June 2014, they modified the system further to give greater priority to crude oil cost. ④ [Gyoten spot prices of petroleum products in Japan] (RIM gyoten) Onshore cargo spot prices are the average onshore lorry rack prices for the four districts of Tokyo, Kawasaki, Chukyo and Hanshin in the Lorry Rack Report of RIM Intelligence Co. ⑤ [Futures prices of petroleum products in Japan] (TOCOM) Front-month petroleum products futures contracts’ daily closing prices for TOCOM Tokyo Bay and Chubu are adopted. TOCOM Tokyo Bay prices are the average offshore barge prices for the Keihin district. TOCOM Chubu prices are the average lorry rack prices in the Chubu district. ⑥ [Retail prices of petroleum products in Japan] (Weekly trend survey) Average cash retail prices at some 2,000 service stations subject to a weekly nationwide survey are adopted (as released by the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy). The survey covers prices on Monday and is released at 14:00 on Wednesday (available on the website of the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy). 6 Contact :[email protected]
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