Kidnapping Risk Overview
Overview May 2014 – October 2014
Page 1 of X
Regional Risk Rating Kidnapping – MENA
1. Over the past months, the jihadist militant
group Islamic State (IS) has gained control
over large parts of eastern Syria and
northwestern Iraq. In these territories, the risk
of kidnapping is extreme. With mounting
Western support for the Iraqi government and
Kurdish authorities in fighting IS, the risk to
Western nationals of being kidnapped by IS
militants has further increased.
1
2
2. Kidnapping incidents are at an
unprecedentedly high level in Libya. Most
international staff has been evacuated, the
kidnapping risk to foreigners remains extreme.
With the deteriorating security situation, militias
of all kinds – Islamist, pro- and anti-government
– have resorted to kidnappings, particularly in
Tripoli and Benghazi, for both financial and
political reasons . Notably, the number of
kidnapped politicians, diplomats and foreign
employees has increased significantly, as well
as the duration of hostage takings. In many
cases, hostages were released after a payment
of ransom or an exchange of prisoners.
However, several abductees have been killed
after demands were not met, marking a critical
development in Libya.
3. Particularly tribal groups and militants linked to al-Qa’ida in the Arabian
Peninsula (AQAP) have continued their kidnapping operations throughout Yemen
over the past six months. Most notably in Sana’a’s southwestern Hadda district,
foreign nationals have repeatedly been targeted. Even well-protected foreign
consular staff have fallen victim to violent kidnapping attempts. Kidnappings
involving foreigners are usually financially motivated; the duration of captivity
tends to be extensive, often lasting for several months. In consideration of the
persistently volatile overall security situation in the country, kidnapping is likely to
remain a considerable risk to foreigners.
3
Summary
Kidnapping is a key risk to foreigners and locals working
for international companies and organisations in the MENA
region. Over the past six months, kidnapping incidents have
most notably occurred in Libya, Yemen, Pakistan, Lebanon and
Syria. Particularly in war-torn Syria, kidnappings of foreigners,
especially journalists and aid workers, have reached an
alarming rate.
Page 2
Regional Risk Rating Kidnapping – SSA
3
1. Kidnapping continues to pose a major
security threat in Nigeria. Two regions stand
out in this regard: whereas the Niger Delta and
the coastal waters of the Gulf of Guinea are
high-risk regions due to the presence of
militants and pirates that especially target
workers in the oil and gas industry, the
northeast of the country has been affected by
kidnappings perpetrated by the Islamist militant
group Boko Haram.
1
2
2. In the northeast of Cameroon, kidnapping
incidents have risen sharply in recent months,
as the Nigerian Islamist militant group Boko
Haram has extended its operations across the
border. In this context, both financially and
politically motivated kidnappings have
increased, including abductions of high-profile
figures such as religious and political leaders,
but also of numerous expatriate workers.
3. Amid political skirmishes over the country’s
future, the risk of kidnappings remains high in
Mali. Shifting alliances between militant Tuareg
and Islamists and the emergence of political
splinter groups have contributed to a
deteriorating security situation. Western
expatriates and local officials have repeatedly
fallen victim to abductions. Islamist militants of
the Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West
Africa (MOJWA) and of al-Murabitoun are often
involved in kidnappings and, in some cases,
have killed their hostages.
Summary
Kidnapping is a key risk to foreigners and locals working
for international companies and organisations in the sub-Saharan
Africa region, especially in West Africa. Over the past six months,
Nigeria, Cameroon and Mali have accounted for most kidnapping
incidents. In addition, Niger and Somalia continue to pose high
kidnapping threats although tightened security measures have led
to a decrease in actual incidents.
Page 3
Regional Risk Rating Kidnapping – Asia & Pacific
The risk of kidnapping to foreigners and locals
working with international companies in the
Asia & Pacific region is modest in global
comparison, which can be attributed to, among
others, the following factors:
•
•
•
•
•
The relatively low level of serious crimes
committed against foreigners
Generally strong state response to serious
crimes against foreigners
The importance of the tourism industry and
foreign investments to the socio-economic
situation of these countries
The absence of major violent internal
conflicts
The successful fight against terrorist groups
over the past few years
1
2
1. The significant risk of abduction in the
Philippines is due to the high crime level and
the operations of armed groups aiming for
financial and political gains. The kidnapping
risk is highest in western Mindanao, the Sulu
Archipelago and bordering waters. Other highrisk areas are Metro Manila, which has
witnessed an increase of kidnappings,
particularly of wealthy East Asian nationals, as
well as rural areas hit by the Maoist insurgency.
Abductees in the Philippines generally face a
high risk of being killed.
2. There is a high risk of kidnapping in the
southeastern parts of Malaysia’s Sabah
Province. Militants from the Philippines
specifically target tourists and businessmen in
coastal areas, on resort islands and in
bordering waters. In addition, the greater Kuala
Lumpur area has been the scene of two
kidnapping incidents involving foreigners in
recent years.
Summary
Kidnapping is not a key risk to foreigners and locals working with
international companies in the Asia & Pacific region. Yet, there are
several countries and sub-regions where kidnapping incidents for
both financial and political gain occur on a regular basis. In some
Asian countries, isolated cases of kidnapping for ransom have
taken place in the recent past, which, however, have not led to a
change of the overall threat level in the respective countries.
Page 4
Regional Risk Rating Kidnapping – Europe & CIS
1. In the separatist-held areas of eastern
Ukraine, state law enforcement institutions
have been replaced by groups of heavily armed
separatists carrying out vigilante justice. The
separatists operate with a large degree of
autonomy, making their actions unpredictable.
The risk of kidnapping by separatist patrols is
extreme. Detainees are often tortured;
hundreds currently languish in makeshift
prisons. While the most frequent victims
include government officials and journalists,
foreigners – particularly Westerners – are also
specifically targeted.
3
2
1
2. In the rest of Ukraine, the risk of criminally
motivated kidnappings is elevated, having risen
slightly over the course of the year due to the
deterioration of the security situation. The
primary motive is immediate financial gain
through ransom payments. While local
businessmen are the main targets, foreigners
are also affected. In September, for instance, a
British tourist was abducted and held for
ransom for three days in Odessa. Although
less common, kidnappings are also used as a
form of pressure in extortion against business
owners.
3. Kidnappings for ransom by organised crime groups are a relatively frequent
occurrence in Russia, with several hundred to a thousand cases occurring
annually. The victims are almost always locals targeted for their perceived wealth.
Victims are typically forced into a vehicle at gunpoint and taken to an isolated
location. Those kidnapped by organised crime groups are usually released
unharmed. In a small number of cases, however, kidnappings are conducted as
crimes of opportunity by less professional forces. These incidents have a higher
chance of resulting in the death of the captives. Foreigners are rarely targeted for
kidnappings due to the higher risks of criminal persecution.
Summary
Across most of Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent
States (CIS), kidnapping is a marginal risk to foreigners and locals
working for international companies and organisations. Eastern
Ukraine is an exception, where foreigners face an extreme risk of
kidnapping at the hands of separatists. Criminally motivated
kidnappings can occur across the region, but the risk is most
significant in Russia, Ukraine and parts of Central Asia.
Page 5
Regional Risk Rating Kidnapping – Americas
1. The risk of kidnapping in Mexico is high. Between January and August
2014, over 1,400 people were abducted according to official data. The
number of unreported cases, however, is far higher. The most affected
areas are those which also suffer from high degrees of drug-related crime
and violence, e.g. the border region with the US, parts of the Caribbean
coast and several federal states on the Pacific Ocean, especially
Michoacán and Guerrero. In addition, a high number of kidnappings are
reported from Mexico City and the surrounding states of Morelia and
Mexico. The kidnapping risk is particularly high in the parts of the
metropolitan area of the capital that stretch into Morelia and the State of
Mexico.
2. Kidnapping remains an issue in Colombia. With 113 cases during the
first eight months of 2014, the number is unchanged from the
corresponding time period in 2013. Nowadays, common criminals are
responsible for the vast majority of kidnappings. However, the country’s
insurgent groups, particularly FARC, continue to generate revenues
through abductions. Although FARC officially renounced kidnapping at the
initiation of the peace talks in late 2012, the insurgent group is held
responsible for 13 kidnappings for ransom until August 2014.
1
3
2
3. Venezuela remains another hotspot of kidnappings in South America.
Officially, 110 cases were registered in the first part of 2014. The number
of unreported cases, however, is most likely far higher. Most kidnappings
take place in the capital Caracas, followed by the federal states of
Miranda, Carabobo and Zulia.
Summary
Kidnapping for ransom is a major problem in Latin America. Among
the most affected countries are Mexico, Venezuela and Colombia as
well as the Central American countries Guatemala, Honduras and El
Salvador. So-called express kidnappings, in which criminals use
their victim’s credit card to withdraw money from his or her bank
account, are not always included in official statistics. However, this
form of short-term abduction prevails in numerous major cities in
the region.
Page 6
Focus Topic
Islamic State
Focus Topic – Islamic State
Recent Developments
In early August 2014, the US Air Force started
attacks against positions of the militant jihadist
group Islamic State (IS) in Iraq with the objective
of weakening its infrastructure and military
capability. Until the end of September, air strikes
expanded into Syria as well, and the US has
been joined by an increasing number of Western
and Arab states in a coalition against IS.
In direct reaction to these developments, so far
two US and two British nationals, who all had
been in the hands of IS for months, have been
executed by IS militants in Syria. With the recent
beheading of a French hostage by the jihadist
group Jund al-Khilafa in Algeria, which has
shifted its allegiance from al-Qa’ida to IS, the
kidnapping threat emerging from IS and affiliated
groups has reached an unprecedented
dimension in the entire MENA region.
Particularly the total disregard for human dignity
and the ideological outlook of IS militants,
dominated by ruthlessness and hatred, pose a
significant threat to Western nationals kidnapped
by IS jihadists.
Page 8
Focus Topic – Islamic State
Areas of Operations


Iraq / Syria and Neighbouring Countries: IS militants are operating in
eastern Syria as well as in northern and western Iraq. In these areas, the risk
of kidnapping is considerable. However, IS is capable of carrying out
kidnapping operations anywhere in the two countries, upon which hostages
would most likely be brought to safe havens in IS-controlled areas. The
same applies to border areas with Syria and Iraq. Most notably in eastern
Lebanon, southeastern Turkey, northern Jordan and northern Saudi Arabia,
IS militants may carry out kidnappings.
Other Countries in MENA and the Rest of the Islamic World: There is a
considerable risk that militant groups affiliated or sympathising with IS and
operating in other parts of the Islamic world, including the MENA region, the
Sahel zone, southeast Asia and the Caucasus, will escalate their attempts to
kidnap Western foreigners. The recent incidents in Algeria and the
Philippines as well as the affiliation of Islamist groups in Libya to IS are
strong indicators of this trend. Most notably in countries where state control
is weak and jihadist groups have been able to establish safe havens in
certain areas, the risk of kidnapping is significant.

Western Countries: In contrast, IS-affiliated militants are unlikely to carry
out kidnapping operations in Western countries given the limited resources
and freedom of movement jihadist groups have there. However, abductions
for the purpose of executing the victim may take place in the Western world
as well.
Page 9
Focus Topic – Islamic State
Objectives
IS militants carry out kidnappings for three reasons: to generate financial gain
through ransom, to pressure for political concessions and / or to abuse hostages
for propaganda. In many cases, all three motives apply.

Ransom: Kidnapping is one of the main sources of income for IS. After IS
conquered vast territories in Iraq and Syria, including oil fields and refineries
which provided alternative sources of constant funding, kidnapping
operations have to a certain extent lost their importance as a means of
generating financial resources. Additionally, the US and UK policy of not
paying ransom makes it virtually impossible to extort financial gain with
hostages of these countries. Nevertheless, ransom is likely to remain an
important source of funding for IS.

Political Concessions: Increasingly, IS militants carry out kidnappings to
pressure local, regional or Western governments for political concessions.
Such concessions can be the cessation of military actions against IS
positions, the release of jihadist militants or the suspension of support for
countries and parties opposed to IS.

Propaganda: IS militants often abuse their kidnapping victims for
propaganda purposes. Exposed in videos spread in social networks, victims
are forced to convert to Islam, to praise the Islamic State and to vilify their
governments. These humiliating acts are also intended to mobilise
sympathisers and exhibit the alleged impotence of Western nations in
protecting their citizens against an ostensibly omnipotent Islamic State.
Page 10
Focus Topic – Islamic State
Targets

Locals: Among the local population in Iraq and Syria, virtually everybody not
submitting to IS’s ideology and radical interpretation of Islamic law (shari’a) is
a potential target for kidnappings. However, members of non-Muslim
confessions as well as Shi’ite Muslims are especially targeted. Children and
teenagers are often kidnapped in order to indoctrinate them with IS ideology
and recruit them as fighters. Security forces are often kidnapped either for
intimidation by torturing and subsequently executing them or for using them
as bargaining chips for prisoner swaps.

Western Nationals: With the US-led international campaign against IS
unfolding, Western nationals have become the main kidnapping targets of IS
militants and members of affiliated groups.

Nationals of Arab Countries: Most notably citizens of Arab countries
participating in the US-led military campaign against IS, including Saudi
Arabia, Jordan, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, are exposed
to a considerable risk of kidnapping.
Page 11
Focus Topic – Islamic State
The Appeal of IS
Since the IS offensive in northern Iraq in June 2014, there has been an
increasingly apparent trend of fighters leaving al-Qa’ida-affiliated groups, such
as al-Qa’ida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and al-Qa’ida in the Arabian
Peninsula (AQAP), in order to join IS in Syria or Iraq. Additionally, over the past
weeks a growing number of Islamist groups in the MENA region have declared
their allegiance to or at least their support for IS, including the following:




(parts of) Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (western Pakistan and Karachi)
Jund al-Khilafa (northeastern Algeria)
Shura Council of Islamic Youth (eastern Libya, particularly Derna)
Ansar al-Shari’a (eastern Libya, particularly Benghazi)
Propaganda Tools of IS
The IS exploits social media to recruit fighters and supporters. Twitter
and Facebook have become key tools to spread Islamist propaganda
and promote the jihadist agenda. The glorification of the daily life in
the “Khalifat” and the exaggeration of jihadi heroism have already
lured hundreds of young people from Europe, North Africa and the US
into joining IS.
Page 12
Focus Topic – Islamic State
During Captivity
The captivity of Western nationals kidnapped by IS has several salient features:


Forced Conversion: In most cases, militant jihadists force their hostage to
convert to Islam. As an outward sign of conversion, the head of the abductee
is shaved, a tradition which allegedly goes back to the time of Prophet
Muhammad and symbolises the end of a person’s infidelity (kufr).
Additionally, male converts are usually circumcised. As recent examples
illustrate, the acceptance of conversion by a kidnapped person does not
necessarily prevent jihadist militants from executing their victim at a later
stage.
Physical and Psychological Torture: IS militants expose their victims to a
considerable degree of physical and psychological torture. This can range
from solitary confinement to the deprivation of food and water to mock
executions to direct physical violence, including waterboarding. The objective is
mostly to extract information. Consequently, most notably persons suspected of
espionage are exposed to a considerable risk of being tortured.
Forced Conversion to Islam


Conversion to Islam is carried out by simply reciting the Islamic
testimony of faith (shahada): “There is no true deity but God, and
Muhammad is the prophet of God.”
According to most Islamic scholars, the conversion is valid only if
the shahada is said with genuine intention (niyya) and not forced.
Page 13
Focus Topic – Islamic State

Execution: As a consequence of the US-led international military campaign
against IS, the risk of being executed by IS militants has increased
considerably for Western nationals over the past weeks. While jihadists
previously had an interest in keeping Western hostages alive, as they were
considered a high-value bargaining chip for ransom, they are increasingly at
risk of being executed in revenge for the ongoing air strikes against IS
positions. The executions of Westerners are virtually always taped on video
and widely published later on in order to achieve maximum psychological
deterrence. Executions are mostly staged as follows:
• Victim and Perpetrator: The hostage is usually dressed in an orange outfit,
an allusion to the prison garb in Guantanamo Bay, where, in the eyes of
jihadist militants, many of their ideological comrades have been humiliated
and tortured. With a shaved head (either showing his recent conversion to
Islam or symbolising his infidelity), the hostage is exhibited in a humiliating
kneeling pose, while an IS member dressed and masked in black garb and
armed with a knife or gun stands behind him reciting words from the
Qur’an, religiously sanctioning the imminent execution. Equally, in most
instances the respective government is claimed to be responsible for the
death of the hostage, as demands, articulated in an earlier video message,
have not been met before the end of the ultimatum.
• Beheading: The preferred form of execution by IS militants is decapitation,
which serves as a means of political propaganda and intimidation and also
humiliates the victim. The act of beheading is mostly carried out by one
person using a long knife or dagger
Words of Jund al-Khilafa Militant Before Beheading
French Hostage in Algeria:
“Let the French people know that their blood is cheap for their
president, and it is the same as you made the blood of Muslim women
and children cheap in Iraq and Syria.”
Page 14
Focus Topic – Islamic State
Outlook
It is highly likely that IS and affiliated groups will
increase their attempts to kidnap citizens of
Western countries or of nations participating in
the anti-IS coalition, not only in Syria and Iraq,
but also in other countries of the MENA region
and beyond.

Shorter Duration of Captivity and
Significant Potential for Physical Harm:
In future kidnappings carried out by IS
militants and affiliated groups, the political
demands are likely to be stated rather
promptly. Victims can be expected to face
their execution within weeks or days if
demands are not met by their respective
government. This stands in contrast to the
prolonged captivity of previous Western
hostages, which were retained until often
lengthy ransom negotiations had been
completed successfully.

Possible Backfiring of Excessive
Violence against Hostages: The
excessive violence against Western and
other kidnapping hostages, as exhibited on
widely distributed videos and images, may
increasingly erode the backing of IS
activities even among radically oriented
Sunni militants. Already one of the
precursor organisations of IS, al-Qa’ida in
Iraq (AQI), has experienced wide-ranging
opposition to its practice of decapitation,
even from within the leadership of core alQa’ida. In the medium to long term, it can
be expected that the ongoing beheadings of
hostages will alienate a rising number of
Sunni Muslims from IS and expose the
jihadist group to increasing opposition
among Muslims in areas under the control
of IS.
Excessive Violence


Hostages of IS are likely to face execution within a short
period of time compared to the partly prolonged captivity of
previous Western hostages.
The violence exerted by IS may provoke opposition of other
Islamist groups in the medium term, contributing to an
erosion of the jihadist movement.
Page 15
Regional Risk Rating Kidnapping – MENA
EXOP
At a Glance




German risk management consultancy firm headquartered in Constance on
Lake Constance, Germany
Premium services for corporate security, travel safety and project assurance
Largest private analysis centre for security abroad in Western Europe
Works for international corporations, major medium sized companies,
development organisations and authorities
Contact
EXOP GmbH
Advisory Group
Byk-Gulden-Straße 24
78467 Constance, Germany
Phone: +49 (0) 7531 942160
Email: [email protected]
Page 16