Photo: Gustaaf Hallegraeff
Chapter 4
Vulnerability of open ocean food webs in the tropical
Pacific to climate change
Robert Le Borgne, Valérie Allain, Shane P Griffiths, Richard J Matear,
A David McKinnon, Anthony J Richardson and Jock W Young
‘The immense size of the Pacific is reflected in strong longitudinal differences in
mixed layer depth and other physical circulation features, themselves reflected
in the regional phytoplankton ecology.’ (Longhurst 2006)i
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189
Contents
190
Page
4.1 Introduction
191
4.2 General structure and function of food webs for tuna
194
4.3 Physical nature of the provinces in the region
4.3.1 Pacific Equatorial Divergence
4.3.2 Western Pacific Warm Pool
4.3.3 North Pacific Tropical Gyre and South Pacific Subtropical Gyre
4.3.4 Archipelagic Deep Basins
201
203
204
206
206
4.4 Structure and variability of food webs in each province
4.4.1 Pacific Equatorial Divergence
4.4.2 Western Pacific Warm Pool
4.4.3 North Pacific Tropical Gyre and South Pacific Subtropical Gyre
4.4.4 Archipelagic Deep Basins
4.4.5 Overview of differences in food webs among provinces
206
206
208
210
210
212
4.5 Critical requirements for maintenance of food webs in each province
4.5.1 Macronutrients and micronutrients
4.5.2 Temperature
4.5.3 Dissolved oxygen
4.5.4 Solar radiation
4.5.5 Carbon dioxide
214
214
215
216
216
216
4.6 Recent observed changes in the food webs of provinces
217
4.7 Projected changes to the environment and food webs of provinces
218
4.8 Projected vulnerability of food webs in provinces
4.8.1 Water temperature
4.8.2 Mixed layer depth
4.8.3 Upwelling
4.8.4 Solar and ultraviolet radiation
4.8.5 Dissolved oxygen
4.8.6 Ocean acidification
222
222
225
226
227
229
230
4.9 Integrated vulnerability assessment
4.9.1 Integrated assessments for each province
4.9.2 Ecopath model for the Warm Pool
232
232
235
4.10 Uncertainty, gaps in knowledge and future research
239
4.11 Management implications and recommendations
241
References
242
CHAPTER 4
4.1 Introduction
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Food source
Size range
Dissolved organic
matter
< 0.2 μm
Detritus
> 0.2 μm
Heterobacteria
> 0.2 μm
Representative organisms
Cyanobacteria (Prochlorococcus,
Synechococcus), pico-eukaryotes
Diatoms, dinoflagellates,
Nanophytoplankton 2–20 μm
haptophytes, pelagophytes
Diatoms, dinoflagellates,
Microphytoplankton 20–200 μm
filamentous cyanobacteria
(Trichodesmium)
Heterotrophic flagellates, small
Nanozooplankton
2–20 μm
ciliates
Radiolarians, foraminiferans,
Microzooplankton
20–200 μm
tintinnids, larval copepods
Copepods, chaetognaths,
Mesozooplankton
200–2000 μm larvaceans, ostracods,
doliolids, larval fish
Pteropods, heteropods,
Macrozooplankton 2–20 mm
siphonophores, jellyfish, salps
Small fish, amphipods,
Epipelagic
2–10 cm
cephalopods, and shrimp
micronekton
Small fish, amphipods,
Mesopelagic
2–10 cm
cephalopods, and shrimp
micronekton
Fish, cephalopods,
Deep micronekton 2–10 cm
and shrimp
Picophytoplankton
0.2–2 μm
Trophic status
Paraprimary
level
Paraprimary
level
Paraprimary
level
Depth of
habitat
All depths
All depths
All depths
Primary level
Photic zone
Primary level
Photic zone
Primary level
Photic zone
Secondary level All depths
Secondary level All depths
Secondary/
tertiary level
Secondary level
and over
Secondary level
and over
Secondary level
and over
Secondary level
and over
All depths
All depths
0–200 m
200–500 m
> 500 m
193
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4.2 General structure and function of food webs for tuna
4.2.1 Phytoplankton production: regenerated and new
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600
300
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400
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provinces
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218
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Biomass (mmol C per m2)
50
40
30
20
10
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Year
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Surface nitrate concentration
threshold (μM)
10°S–10°N
> 0.1
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< 0.1
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< 0.1
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Latitude range
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180°
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180°
140°W
100°W
140°W
100°W
30°N
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0°
10°S
20°S
30°S
B1 2035
140°E
180°
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140°W
30°N
20°N
10°N
0°
10°S
20°S
30°S
B1 2100
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30°N
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0°
10°S
20°S
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Feature of Province
Province
Year Scenario
SST
Area
B1
2035
A2
PEQD
B1
2100
A2
O2
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NPP
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-20
+1 (0.3)
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-8 (26)
-10 (3.43)
0
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-27
+2 (0.5)
-9 (24) -12 (26)
-9 (3.51)
0
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-30
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-12 (23)
-5 (28)
-15 (3.24)
+2
-3
-35 (2.49)
+4
-6
-50
+6 (1.6)
-26 (19)
-26
(22)
+18
+1 (0.4)
+3 (32)
0 (50)
-8 (3.82)
-7
-6
+21
+2 (0.5)
-5 (27)
-2 (49)
-10 (3.74)
-5
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+26
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0 (30)
0 (50)
-17 (3.46)
-9
-9
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-33 (2.79)
-9
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+1 (61)
-8 (3.57)
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-3
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+3 (60)
-11 (3.66)
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+7 (63)
-18 (3.27)
-11
-10
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+8 (64)
-33 (2.66)
-22
-18
+4
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0 (40)
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-8 (3.69)
-3
-3
+7
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-4 (65)
-11 (3.60)
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0 (40)
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-18 (3.32)
-3
-5
+14
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-34 (2.65)
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0
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0
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0
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-20
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0
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-35 (2.70)
-33
-26
B1
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2035
A2
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B1
2100
A2
B1
2035
A2
NPTG
B1
2100
A2
B1
2035
A2
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B1
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CHAPTER 4
Present
140°E
180°
140°W
100°W
30°N
20°N
10°N
0°
10°S
20°S
30°S
20
60
100
140
180
300
500
NPP (g C per m2 per year)
B1 2035
140°E
180°
A2 2035
140°W
100°W
140°E
180°
140°W
100°W
30°N
20°N
10°N
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10°S
20°S
30°S
B1 2100
A2 2100
30°N
20°N
10°N
0°
10°S
20°S
30°S
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-80
-40
0
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1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Biomass of zooplankton (g C per m2)
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30°N
140°E
180°
A2 2035
140°W
100°W
140°E
180°
140°W
100°W
20°N
10°N
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20°S
30°S
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30°N
20°N
10°N
0°
10°S
20°S
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CHAPTER 4
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Province Year Vulnerability
2035
Moderate
PEQD
2100
2035
Warm
Pool
2100
2035
High
Moderate
High
Low
NPTG
2100
2035
SPSG
2100
Moderate
Low
LowModerate
2035
Low
ARCH
2100
Moderate
Projected changes
Decrease in surface area of 20–27% as western boundary of PEQD
moves eastwards from 180° to 170°W. Minor (2%) reduction in
zooplankton biomass. No direct effect of higher SST, and lower O2 and
pH, on biomass or composition of plankton.
Decreases in surface area of 30–50% and movement of boundary to
160–150°W. A 2–4% increase in NPP and 3–6% decrease in biomass of
zooplankton. No direct effect of higher SST, and lower O2 and pH, on
biomass or species composition of plankton.
Increase in surface area eastwards by 18–21%, with a 5–7% reduction
in NPP and 3–6% decrease in biomass of zooplankton throughout the
water column. No direct effect of higher SST, and lower O2 and pH, on
biomass or species composition of plankton.
Increase in surface area eastwards by 26–48%, with a 9% reduction in
NPP and 9–10% decrease in biomass of zooplankton throughout the
water column. No direct effect of higher SST, and lower O2 and pH, on
biomass or species composition of plankton.
Surface area increases limited to 1% as the province extends to the
north. NPP decreases by 3–5% and zooplankton biomass declines by
3 to 4%. No direct effect of higher SST and O2, or lower pH, on biomass
or species composition of plankton.
Increase in surface area stabilises at an increase of 1% but NPP
decreases greatly (11–22%) and biomass of zooplankton declines by
10–18%. No direct effect of higher SST and O2, or lower pH, on biomass
or species composition of plankton.
Surface area increases by 3–7%. NPP decreases by 4–5% and biomass
of zooplankton declines by 3–4%. No direct effect of higher SST, and
lower O2 and pH, on biomass or species composition of plankton.
Surface area increases by 7–14% and extends poleward, with a 3–6%
reduction in NPP and 5–10% decrease in biomass of zooplankton due
to deepening of the thermocline. No direct effect of higher SST, and
lower O2 and pH, on biomass or species composition of plankton.
No change in surface area. A reduction in NPP of 5–8% and a 5–6%
decrease in biomass of zooplankton due to deepening of the
thermocline. No direct effect of higher SST, and lower O2 and pH, on
biomass or species composition of plankton.
No change in surface area. Greater (20–33%) reduction in NPP and a
17–26% decrease in biomass of zooplankton due to deepening of the
thermocline. No direct effect of higher SST, and lower O2 and pH, on
biomass or species composition of plankton.
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Very low
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0% 5%
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Medium
33%
High
66%
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Change in biomass (%)
Mesozooplankton
Epipelagic
micronekton
Mesopelagic
micronekton
Bathypelagic
micronekton
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
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249
Vulnerability
of Tropical Pacific Fisheries and Aquaculture
to Climate Change
Edited by Johann D Bell, Johanna E Johnson and Alistair J Hobday
3
Vulnerability
of Tropical Pacific Fisheries and Aquaculture
to Climate Change
Edited by Johann D Bell, Johanna E Johnson and Alistair J Hobday
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