R. A. Luettich et al Circulation characteristics of the Neuse River Estuary Circulation characteristics of the Neuse River Estuary, North Carolina Richard A. Luettich, Jr.*1, Janelle V. Reynolds-Fleming1, Jesse E. McNinch2, and Chris P. Buzzelli1 1 Institute of Marine Sciences University of North Carolina 3431 Arendell Street Morehead City, NC 28557 USA 2 Waterways Experiment Station 1261 Duck Road Kitty Hawk, NC 27949 USA *Corresponding author tel: (252) 726- 6841 ext. 137 fax: (252) 726-2426 email: [email protected] Manuscript for Estuaries, 20 April, 2000 R. A. Luettich et al 1 Abstract An observational program was initiated in 1997 to quantify dominant circulation characteristics in the Neuse River Estuary (NRE). The study included weekly hydrographic sampling along the estuary axis, analysis of approximately 14 months of velocity, salinity, temperature, and water level data from a near surface and a near bottom InterOcean S4 current meter moored midway along the length of the estuary, and two intensive cross-channel velocity and hydrographic surveys. Our results indicate that: (1) Astronomical tides constitute less than 2% of the variation in both water level and velocity; (2) Water exchange is dominated by remote atmospheric forcing for periods of days; (3) Fresh water discharge dominates water exchange for periods of days to weeks; (4) Variations in velocity with periods of 7 h to 20 h appear as barotropic standing waves. These motions account for roughly 75% of the total velocity variance but do not contribute to significant volume exchange due to their short periods; (5) Significant cross channel circulation occurs and exhibits side to side sloshing; and (6) The estuary has variable flow types with classical estuarine flow recorded approximately 50% of this study time. Introduction The Neuse River Estuary (NRE) is a drowned river valley located at the transition from the Neuse River to Pamlico Sound in North Carolina (Fig. 1). It is a shallow estuary with a mean depth of 3.6 m, mean width of 6.5 km, and length of 70 km. Like many estuaries, the NRE has seen rapid development along its shores and within its watershed during the past 50 years. Changing and diversifying land use practices that now include forestry, agriculture, industry, and urban development have placed increasing pressure on estuarine and coastal habitats to accommodate anthropogenic inputs. It is widely believed that these pressures have resulted in a R. A. Luettich et al 2 long-term degradation of water quality (Paerl 1983, 1987; Christian et al. 1986; Paerl et al. 1995, 1998). It has frequently been assumed that water quality problems in the NRE are exacerbated by a relatively long flushing time. Early studies in Pamlico Sound identified the important role wind has in forcing circulation in this waterbody and by inference, the lower NRE (Seiwell, 1927; Roelofs and Bumpus, 1953; Pietrafesa et al., 1986). The first circulation study in the NRE consisted of two dye releases by Woods (1969). He found average downstream dye transport rates of 5.4 cm s-1 during a 6 d release and 3.1 cm s-1 during an 18 d release. Knowles (1975) deployed nine current meters, 7 near bottom and two near surface, in the NRE for 38 d beginning in August, 1973. He found significant spectral energy near the semidiurnal period and attributed as much as a 20 cm s-1 current to the lunar semi-diurnal tide. This signal was weakest near the mouth of the NRE and increased with distance upstream. The strongest evidence for wind forcing was due to the diurnal sea breeze. A mean downstream current of 1.8 cm s-1 was computed by averaging data from all instruments during the deployment period. This corresponds to a transit time of 32 d from New Bern (near station 40 on Fig. 1) to the mouth (just past station 180 on Fig. 1) of the NRE. However, since it is likely that the majority of his near bottom current meters experienced upstream flow due to estuarine circulation at least part of the time, this mean current value may not accurately reflect downstream transport which would tend to be concentrated near the surface. Kim (1990) examined circulation as part of a study of turbidity maxima in the NRE. Vertical profiles of velocity and density collected at 20 stations along the estuary axis at monthly intervals over a 13 mo period frequently indicated vertical density stratification and estuarine R. A. Luettich et al 3 type circulation (downstream at the surface and upstream near the bottom). Power spectra of water level time series collected near Minnesott Beach suggested a signal of less than 5 cm in the approximate semi-diurnal frequency band. Robbins and Bales (1995) reported mean, median and maximum upstream and downstream velocities from 10 current meters deployed 1.5 m from the bottom along the estuary for a period of 17 d in October, 1989. Their data contained mean velocities that were much higher than those recorded by Knowles (1975) and indicated that currents were generally lower on the north side of the estuary than on the south side and that upstream currents were more frequent near the northern shore while downstream currents predominated near the southern shore. Results from a companion two-dimensional, vertically-integrated circulation model indicated the longitudinal salinity gradient was significant in driving the long term circulation in the system and that short term circulation responds considerably to wind forcing. While the previous studies provide a basic impression of the circulation in the NRE, either the data quality or the analyses leave significant questions unanswered that we have attempted to address in our present study. Specifically, we seek to understand the following: 1) Does the semi-diurnal tide provide enough energy to influence circulation and water level? 2) How do fresh water discharge and wind forcing interact to drive circulation and water level? 3) What role does wind forcing play in moving the salt wedge along and across the axis of the estuary versus mixing and destroying vertical stratification? 4) Is there appreciable across channel circulation in the NRE? R. A. Luettich et al 4 Methods Mid-river hydrography study Physical/chemical properties (temperature, conductivity, dissolved oxygen and pH) of the water column were sampled weekly at mid-river stations by University of North CarolinaInstitute of Marine Sciences (UNC-IMS), Weyerhaeuser, and North Carolina Division of Water Quality personnel from June 1997 through December 1998. Observations were made at 0.5 m intervals from near-surface to near-bottom at mid-river locations (stations 0-180) from Streets Ferry bridge to the mouth of the NRE (Fig. 1). These efforts expanded a similar bi-weekly sampling program at a smaller number of stations (0-30, 50-70, and 120; Fig. 1) that had been in place since 1994. All sampling was conducted using Hydrolab Surveyor 3 data loggers and H20 CTDs with dissolved oxygen and pH sensors. These instruments were calibrated in the lab prior to each sampling trip. Current meter mooring Two InterOcean S4 electromagnetic current meters, positioned near-bottom (75 cm above bottom) and near-surface (75-125 cm below surface), were moored near Minnesott Beach (Fig.1) in an average depth of 4 m. The mooring was maintained from August 1997 through September 1998. From August 1997-June 1998, the S4s measured current speed and direction, conductivity, temperature, and pressure at 2 Hz for 5 min every 30 min. From June 1998 to September 1998, the S4s collected data at 2 Hz for 3 min every 15 min. Temperature and conductivity values were verified with an independently calibrated Hydrolab H20 CTD. R. A. Luettich et al 5 Across-channel ADCP and CTD transects Current speed and direction throughout the water column were measured using a shipboard acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP). An RD Instruments 1200 kHz broadband ADCP was boom-mounted and towed along the surface at approximately 4 kts. Ship position and flow velocities were calculated from Differential Global Positioning System (DGPS) and bottom tracking, respectively. Depth bins of 25 cm were used and ensemble averaging of pings over a horizontal distance of 200 m provided a flow speed accuracy of 2 cm s-1. Velocities from the near-surface and near-bottom depth bins were discarded due to velocity errors associated with surface disturbances and ship wakes and side lobe reflection at the bottom. Velocity calculations from the ADCP thus provided an effective range from approximately 75 cm below the surface to 25 cm above bottom. CTD/DO casts were performed using a Seabird SBE 19 CTD with attached DO sensor and pumped flow through system. The CTD/DO was lowered continuously at a constant speed of approximately 1.5 m per min and provided vertical profiles at 2.5 cm resolution. DO and salinity measurements from the Sea Bird CTD were calibrated and verified in the field with a YSI dissolved oxygen probe and a Hydrolab H20 CTD with DO sensor that were calibrated independently in the laboratory. Currents were measured with the ADCP along transects 100 and 120 two times per day during June 3-5, 1998 and along transects 100 and 148 every 5-9 h during July 27-30, 1998. Hydrography was measured by taking CTD casts at 5 stations spaced approximately 800-1200 km apart along each transect within 45 min of each ADCP run. R. A. Luettich et al 6 Meteorological Data Meteorological data collected by the Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station were obtained from the North Carolina State Climatological Office. These data consist of hourly wind speed and direction, sky conditions, air temperature, relative humidity and barometric pressure. The station is located just south of the NRE near the center of the study area as shown in Fig. 1. Freshwater Discharge Freshwater volume discharge data were collected by the USGS for the Neuse River at Kinston, NC. This station is approximately 145 km upstream from the mouth of the estuary. The data were collected at quarter hour intervals. Discharge is largely regulated by the Falls Creek Dam approximately 129 km upstream of the discharge measuring station. Velocity Rotations Water velocity data from the current meter mooring were rotated into along- and acrosschannel components. Component directions were determined by computing power spectra for the velocity rotated in five degree increments around the compass. The direction producing the greatest total power (the greatest variance) was chosen as the along-channel direction. The along channel axis was determined to be NW-SE (300-120 degrees) at the current meter location and is aligned with the section of the NRE upstream of the 90 degree bend near Minnesott Beach, (Fig. 1). Wind velocities were also decomposed into along- and across-channel components by choosing the direction that gave the highest correlation between wind velocity and water level. This turned out to be NE-SW (50-230 degrees), which is aligned with the section of the NRE downstream of the 90 degree river bend. R. A. Luettich et al 7 Results Mid-river hydrography The mid-river CTD/DO data provide along-channel snapshots of the hydrography of the NRE. These results yield a nearly synoptic view of the location of the salt-wedge, the strength of stratification and dissolved oxygen levels down the length of the estuary. The data show considerable variability between weekly measurements in both the location and degree of stratification of the salt-wedge and associated dissolved oxygen levels. Figure 2 shows an example of the mid-river hydrography. Figures 2a and 2b present sigma T and dissolved oxygen (DO) data collected July 6-7, 1998. Prior to this sampling period, winds were toward the southwest for 1-2 days and the mean daily freshwater discharge was weak compared to the yearly mean. The water column was well mixed and DO levels were near saturation. Figures 2c and 2d represent data collected August 17, 1998. Prior to this sampling period, winds were light toward the northeast for 2-3 days and again the mean daily freshwater discharge was weak compared to the yearly mean. The water column is stratified with the terminus of the salt wedge extending upriver nearly to New Bern. Bottom waters were nearly anoxic within the salt wedge. Mid-river data collected prior to the 1997-98 field program (1994-97) were pooled with the 1997-98 data set and analyzed for relationships between dissolved oxygen concentration, stratification and water temperature. Frequency histograms of low oxygen conditions for three different temperature ranges and six different vertical salinity (density) variations are presented in Fig. 3. Low dissolved oxygen (DO £ 4 mg l-1) conditions occurred in ~70% of the samples when water temperatures were above 20°C and the water column was weakly stratified (∆ psu = R. A. Luettich et al 8 1-2). This increased to ~90% for stronger stratification. Hypoxic to anoxic conditions (DO £ 2 mg l-1) occurred in ~40% of the samples for weak stratification and ~ 85% for strong stratification during these warm periods. Low oxygen conditions were much less frequent during cooler temperature, however, they still appeared in 60-70% of the samples when stratification was strong, even during the winter months. A strong relationship between dissolved oxygen and stratification was found by Stanley and Nixon (1992) on the Pamlico River Estuary. A mechanistic/statistical model to predict DO concentration based on temperature and stratification has been developed by Borsuk et al (in review). Time Series Data An example of the time series data (wind velocity, water level, near-surface currents, near-bottom currents, 30 h low-pass filtered currents, and near-surface and near-bottom salinity) for the month of August 1997 is presented in Fig. 4. These data indicate that winds blowing toward the northeast force a set-down of water level and an increase in stratification (Fig. 4a,4b,4f; Julian days 214-217,225-230). These winds enhance the downstream surface current and may also enhance the upstream bottom estuarine circulation (Fig. 4e). Winds blowing towards the southwest drive an increase in water level and mix the water column (Fig. 4a,4b,4f; Julian days 218-223, 230-231,234-241). Power spectra of wind, water level, water velocity and salinity are presented for two 10 week periods, one during the winter (December 1997-February 1998) and one during the summer (July-September 1998), in Figs. 5 and 6. These time periods were chosen for three reasons: 1) complete data records exist for these periods; 2) the winter time period is typically dominated by winds blowing toward the SW whereas the summer time period is typically R. A. Luettich et al 9 dominated by winds blowing toward the NE; and 3) the winter time period is characterized by high freshwater discharge whereas the summer time period is not (Fig. 7). The wind spectra for both time periods are dominated by low frequency energy (periods longer than approximately 1.5 d and presumably associated with synoptic weather patterns). The along channel component is closely aligned with the prevailing wind direction and therefore generally contains more energy than the across channel component. There is no indication of a diurnal sea breeze signal in the wind spectra from either time period. Water level power spectra are also dominated by low frequency energy. There is an indication in both time periods of elevated water level energy around the semi-diurnal frequency. Surface and bottom salinity during both time periods also show energy primarily at low frequencies. In the winter period, there is indication of energy at higher frequencies, but does this is not the case in the summer period. Current velocity energy is much more evenly distributed across the frequency spectrum than for the wind, water level and salinity. A strong peak exists near 12 h in the along channel component in the summer and at slightly longer periods (lower frequency) in the winter. Coherence between the along-channel wind and water level is quite strong in both time periods at low frequencies (freq 0.01-0.035) with a phase angle of nearly 180 degrees, Figs 8a,c and 9a,c. This phase angle suggests that a positive along-channel wind (i.e. wind blowing towards the NE) corresponds to a decrease in water level in the NRE and vice versa. Coherence between wind and water level is not significant (at the 95% level) during either time period at 24 h (freq ~0.04) suggesting that the water level response at this frequency is not locally wind driven. Significant coherence between water level and fresh water discharge for frequencies less than 0.01 (approximately 4 d) in both time periods (Fig. 10) suggests that the underlying circulation driver for the system is freshwater discharge at these long time scales. At frequencies R. A. Luettich et al 10 higher than approximately 0.035, water level and along-channel wind as well as fresh water discharge and along-channel wind show significant coherence at a few isolated frequencies, but with little consistent pattern. During both time periods, along-channel near-surface currents are coherent with water level from roughly 7 h to 20 h (freq 0.05-0.14), Figs. 8b,d and 9b,d. The upstream current leads the water level by approximately 90 degrees suggesting that these motions represent barotropic standing waves. Near-surface and near-bottom currents are coherent across roughly this same frequency range with near-bottom currents leading near-surface currents by 0-40 degrees (Figs. 8f,h and 9f,h). This phase difference suggests the possibility of stratification induced decoupling between the upper and lower water column with bottom friction important primarily in the lower water column. In the winter data set, along-channel wind is coherent with near-surface alongchannel currents over roughly the same frequency range that wind and water level are coherent. The same pattern may also hold in the summer data set although the coherence is not as strong (Figs. 8e,g and 9e,g). This suggests that low frequency along channel winds drive along channel surface currents and ultimately water level. To examine the contribution of the astronomical tides to circulation in the NRE, a leastsquares analysis using seven tidal constituents, O1, K1, N2, M2, S2,M4, and M6, was calculated for water level for both the winter and the summer periods. The calculated phases and amplitudes were then used to reconstruct a water level time series due to the tides alone. This reconstructed tidal signal, Fig. 11, represents less than 1% of the raw water level variance. A similar analysis of the strength of the astronomical tides in the velocity record yielded a tidal variance of only 12% of the total variance in the raw velocity signal in both the near bottom and near surface records. Comparatively, 21% (19%) of the water level variance during the winter (summer) and R. A. Luettich et al 11 86% (83%) of the velocity variance is associated with nontidal energy in the diurnal to sextodiurnal frequency band. Across-channel flow and hydrography Both of the shipboard, cross-estuary surveys in the summer of 1998 indicated the presence of similar across-channel circulation. Therefore, we present only the results of the July experiment (Figs 12-14). Sampling was done during a period when the river appeared to be characterized by estuarine circulation. The along-channel flows at transect 100 indicate this estuarine flow, although significant variation in flow direction exists across channel as well as vertically within the water column. A possible pattern is suggested in which upstream flow is focused toward the southern shore and downstream flow is focused towards the northern shore (Figs. 12a-12d). The across-channel flow was initially toward the southern shore near the surface and toward the northern shore near the bottom (Fig. 13a). The corresponding hydrography indicated upwelling along the northern shore (Fig. 14a). Winds around the time of this transect were light (5-10 kts) and toward the southwest throughout the morning (Fig. 13e). Within 5 hours, both wind direction and speed had changed to blowing strongly (15-20 kts) toward the northeast. By the second transect, the across-channel velocities were reversed from the first transect and were flowing toward the northern shore near the surface and strongly towards the southern shore near the bottom (Fig. 13b). Hydrography indicates that the isohalines and isotherms responded quickly to the across channel flow with upwelling occurring along the southern shore (Fig. 14b). The across-channel flow weakened considerably during the third transects and slightly reversed (Fig. 13c), which corresponds to a decrease in wind velocity and a further shift in wind direction. R. A. Luettich et al 12 Hydrography indicates the cessation of upwelling on the southern shore as evident by relaxation in the isohalines (Fig. 14c). By the fourth transect, across-channel velocities weakened further, yet shifted to northward flow at the surface and southward flow at the bottom (Fig. 13d). There is indication of southern shore upwelling in the hydrographic data (Fig. 14d). Discussion and Conclusions This paper reports on results from an observational study of the physical characteristics of the Neuse River Estuary (NRE), a shallow, lagoonal/riverine estuary in eastern North Carolina. This study provides a much more thorough description of stratification and dissolved oxygen, along and across channel circulation and physical forcing mechanisms than has been previously reported for this system. Harmonic analysis of approximately a year of water level and current meter data clearly indicates that semi-diurnal and diurnal astronomical tides are insignificant in the NRE. Significant low frequency coherence between water level and fresh water discharge in the Neuse River confirms the coupling between these variables at time scales of days to weeks. Strong coherence in the synoptic weather band between water level and wind aligned with the lower NRE (which is also aligned with the long axis of Pamlico Sound) indicates that these winds are the predominant forcing mechanism for water movement on time scales of days. Others have shown that water level variations in Pamlico Sound are coherent with synoptic band winds blowing in the along sound direction (e.g., Pietrafesa et al., 1986). Therefore, we believe that at these time scales water level (and consequently along estuary circulation) in the NRE is actually driven by setup of Pamlico Sound rather than direct wind stress upon the NRE. We did R. A. Luettich et al 13 not find evidence of significant wind energy or estuary response at the diurnal frequency suggesting that the daily sea breeze was not significant in this area. Spectra of along-channel water velocity indicate the presence of substantial energy at diurnal and higher frequencies with elevated levels around 12 h. These velocities are highly coherent with and approximately 90 degrees out of phase with water level fluctuations suggesting that at these time scales motion is dominated by barotropic standing waves. While these relatively short time scale motions do not result in the displacement of large volumes of water, they comprise an oscillatory motion that can, in areas of significant geometric/bathymetric irregularities and/or spatially varying low frequency flows, lead to horizontal dispersion of materials similar to tidal dispersion (Geyer and Signell, 1992). A possible cause of these motions can be identified by considering the lowest mode resonant period, T0, of a shallow, barotropic, frictionless waterbody: T 0 = 2d gh where g is the acceleration of gravity, h is the water depth and d is the length of the water body. Applying this to the long axis of Pamlico Sound plus the lower NRE ( h ≈4.5m , d ≈130km ) gives T o ≈11hrs . Therefore we propose the semi-diurnal signal that was initially identified by Knowles (1975) and that is pervasive in our data is actually the lowest mode resonance of the combined NRE/Pamlico Sound system. The higher frequency barotropic standing waves are probably due to resonances created by shorter length scales in the system. These resonant motions are commonly called seiches. Preliminary results from a numerical circulation model are consistent with these expectations and will be reported on fully in the future. Seiche motions are common phenomena in deeper water bodies. In the Chesapeake Bay, Wang (1979) attributed R. A. Luettich et al 14 seiches to direct wind stress in the longitudinal (N-S) direction whereas Chuang and Boicourt (1989) relate similar seiche motion to lateral (E-W) wind. Despite the shallow water depths and strong barotropic behavior, the bi-weekly to weekly mid-river data we have collected since 1994 show that the estuary is frequently (salinity) stratified over the vertical. In the NRE, stratification is due to the existence of a persistent fresh water discharge (the Neuse River) and the absence of a persistent vertical mixing mechanism (such as a strong astronomical tide). Wind plays an episodic role in this process as winds directed down estuary (primarily toward the northeast) enhance downstream fresh water surface flow and may also enhance upstream near bottom estuarine circulation. Conversely, winds oriented up estuary (toward the southwest) tend to mix the water column. Thus the NRE can behave as anything from strongly stratified estuary to a well-mixed estuary depending on which way the wind is blowing. It has been shown that wind fields acting on the Chesapeake Bay can both destratify the water column (Goodrich, et al, 1987) and lead to enhanced stratification (Valle-Levinson, et al, 1998). A rough idea of the "estuarine" nature of the NRE can be obtained from the year-long data set of near surface and near bottom current velocities we have obtained. After low pass filtering (30 h) these data to remove seiches and other high frequency components, the direction of the near surface current was compared with the direction of the near bottom current. Estuarine circulation (defined as downstream near the surface and upstream near the bottom) occurred 52 percent of the time; riverine circulation (defined as downstream near the surface and near the bottom) occurred 36 percent of the time; anti-riverine circulation (defined as upstream near the surface and near the bottom) occurred 7 percent of the time; reverse estuary circulation R. A. Luettich et al 15 (defined as upstream near the surface and downstream near the bottom) occurred 5 percent of the time. The presence of stratification has significant ecological implications, many of which are due to the relationship between stratification and the dissolved oxygen concentration below the pycnocline. At water temperatures above 20 0C, benthic and lower water column oxygen consumption is sufficiently strong to cause significant oxygen reduction when vertical stratification is as little as 1-2 psu. Even at cold water temperatures (e.g., below 10 0C) when microbial oxygen consumption is strongly curtailed, significant instances of low dissolved oxygen to hypoxic bottom water occur during periods of stronger stratification. Finally, this study has documented the existence of rapid (less than 6 hr) cross-river sloshing and accompanying near shore, bottom water upwelling in the portion of the NRE between Cherry Point and New Bern. Due to the 90 degree bend in the NRE near Cherry Point, the prevailing northeast-southwest winds are oriented nearly across channel in this section of the estuary. Thus the same winds that ultimately drive the majority of the longitudinal circulation are oriented to drive cross-channel flow upstream of Cherry Point. In this case winds blowing toward the southwest are expected to cause upwelling on the northern shore and winds blowing toward the northeast should cause upwelling on the southern shore. These upwelling events will intermittently fill the near shore water column with bottom water. If the dissolved oxygen concentration in this bottom water is sufficiently low, the upwelling may be lethal for fish that are engulfed by these waters. Alternatively, repeated exposure to upwelled waters with sublethal dissolved oxygen concentrations may have chronic effects on fish and/or their habitat. R. A. Luettich et al 16 Acknowledgements We thank Crystal Fulcher for assistance with the hydrographic field work, data analysis, and data management, Jennifer McNinch and Joe Purifoy for assistance with the circulation and hydrographic field work and data analysis, and Jim Hench for his insightful comments regarding this manuscript. We thank the North Carolina State Climate Office for meteorological data from Cherry Point and Alex Cardinell of the US Geographical Survey in Raleigh for the Kinston discharge data. Funding was provided by the CISNet program (Environmental Protection Agency grant R-826938-01-0) and by the Neuse River MODMON program (UNC Water Resources Research Institute grant UNC-CH-040-197-1). A presentation of data obtained during the MODMON program can be found in Luettich et al. (2000) and on the web at www.marine.unc.edu/neuse/modmon/modmon.html. Literature Cited Borsuk, M.E., C. A. Stow, R. A. Luettich, H. W. Paerl, and J. L. Pinckney. 2000. Modeling oxygen dynamics in an intermittently stratified estuary: Estimation of process rates using field data. (submitted to Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science). Christian, R. R., W. Bryant, and D.W. Stanley. 1986. The relationship between river flow and Microcystis aeruginosa blooms in the Neuse River, NC. Water Resources Research Institute, Report 223, Raleigh, North Carolina. R. A. Luettich et al 17 Chuang, W. S. and W. C. Boicourt. 1989. Resonant Seiche Motion in the Chesapeake Bay. Journal of Geophysical Research , 94(C2): 2105-2110. Geyer, W. R. and R. P. Signell. 1992. A Reassessment of the Role of Tidal Dispersion in Estuaries and Bays. Estuaries, 15(2), 97-108. Goodrich, D. M., W. C. Boicourt, D. Hamilton and D. W. Pritchard. 1987. Wind-Induced Destratification in Chesapeake Bay. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 17, 2232-2240. Jarrett, J. T. 1966. A study of the hydrology and hydraulics of Pamlico Sound and their relation to the concentration of substances in the sound: North Carolina State University, Dept. of Civil Eng., M.S. thesis, Raleigh, North Carolina, 156 pages. Kim, S. Y. 1990. Physical Processes and Fine-Grained Sediment Dynamics in the Neuse River Estuary, NC: University of North Carolina, Curriculum of Marine Sciences, PhD. thesis, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, 128 pages. Knowles, C. E 1975. Flow dynamics of the Neuse River, North Carolina, Sea Grant Publication UNC-SG-75-16, Sea Grant Program, Raleigh, North Carolina. Luettich, R. A., J. E. McNinch, J. L. Pinckney, M. J. Alperin, C. S. Martens, H. W. Paerl, C. H. Peterson, and J. T. Wells. 2000. Neuse River Estuary Modeling and Monitoring Project, Final Report: Monitoring Phase, Water Resources Research Institute, Raleigh, North Carolina, 190 pages. R. A. Luettich et al 18 Paerl, H. 1983. Factors regulating nuisance blue-green algal bloom potential in the lower Neuse River. Report No. 177, Water Resources Research Institute, Raleigh, North Carolina, 139 pages. Paerl, H. 1987. Dynamics of blue-green algal (Microcystis aeruginosa) blooms in the lower Neuse River, NC: causative factors and potential controls. Report No. 299, Water Resources Research Institute, Raleigh, North Carolina, 164 pages. Paerl, H. W., M. A. Mallin, C. A. Donahue, M. Go, and B. L. Peierls. 1995. Nitrogen loading sources and eutrophication of the Neuse River Estuary, NC: Direct and indirect roles of atmospheric deposition, Report 291, Water Resources Research Institute, Raleigh, North Carolina, 116 pages. Paerl, H.W., J. Pinckney, J. Fear, and B. Peierls. 1998. Ecosystem response to internal watershed organic matter loading: Consequences for hypoxia in the eutrophying Neuse River Estuary, North Carolina, Marine Ecological Progress Series 166:17-25. Pietrafesa, L. J., G. S. Janowitz, T. Y. Chao, R. H. Weisberg, F. Askari, and E. Noble 1986. The physical oceanography of Pamlico Sounds, UNC Sea Grant Report, UNC-SG-WP-86-5, Sea Grant Program, Raleigh, North Carolina, 126 pages. Robbins, J. C. and J. D. Bales. 1995. Simulation of hydrodynamics and solute transport in the R. A. Luettich et al 19 Neuse River Estuary, North Carolina, US Geological Survey, Open File Report 94-511, Raleigh, North Carolina, 85 pages. Roelofs, E. W. and D. F. Bumpus. 1953. The hydrography of Pamlico Sound. Bulletin of Marine Sciences of the Gulf and Caribbean, 3(3), 181-205. Seiwell, H.R. 1927. A brief report on the physical hydrography of Pamlico Sound and its tributaries. Typed report to the Dept. Geol., Univ. N.C. and U.S. Bureau of Fisheries. Unpublished. Stanley D. W. and S. W. Nixon. 1990. Stratification and Bottom water hypoxia in the Pamlico River Estuary. Estuaries, 15(3), 270-281. Valle-Levinson, A., J. L. Miller and G. H. Wheless. 1998. Enhanced Stratification in the lower Chesapeake Bay following northeasterly winds. Continental Shelf Research, 18, 16311647. Wang, D. D. 1979. Wind-driven circulation in the Chesapeake Bay, winter 1975. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 9, 564-572. Woods, W. J. 1969. Current Study in the Neuse River and Estuary of North Carolina. Report no. 13. Water Resources Research Institute, Raleigh, North Carolina, 34 pages. R. A. Luettich et al 20 Figure Legends Fig. 1. The Neuse River Estuary site location. The map shows locations of the S4 current meter mooring, across-channel hydrographic transects, meteorologic station and mid-river sample stations in which CTD/DO casts were conducted weekly from June 1997-December 1998. Fig. 2. Mid-river hydrographic plot from July 6-7, 1998 and August 17, 1998. New Bern is approximately 11 km and Cherry Point is approximately 40 km downstream of Streets Ferry Bridge (Station SFB). a) sigma T and b) dissolved oxygen show unstratified conditions and near saturated levels of dissolved oxygen existed down the length of the NRE following a period of winds blowing toward the southwest. c) and d) show stratified and hypoxic conditions existed below the salt-wedge following a period of light winds blowing toward the northeast. Fig. 3. Frequency diagrams from the mid-river sampling program. Data represent the frequency of low dissolved oxygen (a) and hypoxic (b) conditions under varying temperature ranges and varying stratification (represented by ∆psu=bottom salinity – surface salinity). Sample size, n, is shown for each temperature range and ∆psu combination. Fig. 4. Time series from the S4 mooring near Minnesott Beach during August 1997 showing a) wind velocity (direction wind is blowing towards), b) water level, c) near-surface currents, d) near-bottom currents, e) near-bottom and near-surface currents filtered with a 30 h low-pass filter, and f) near-surface and near-bottom salinity. R. A. Luettich et al 21 Fig. 5. Power spectra and 95% confidence intervals for wind, water level, salinity and water velocity from a 10-week winter period (December 1997-February 1998). Wind data are from Cherry Point MCAS and all other variables are from the S4 mooring near Minnesott Beach. Fig. 6. Power spectra and 95% confidence intervals for wind, water level, salinity and water velocity from a 10-week summer period (July-September 1998). Wind data are from Cherry Point MCAS and all other variables are from the S4 mooring near Minnesott Beach. Fig. 7. Fresh water discharge from the NRE at Kinston, NC for 10-week winter (December 1997February 1998) and summer (July-September 1998) periods. The station is located 145 km upstream from the mouth of the NRE. Fig. 8. Coherence squared and phase differences (degrees) for a 10-wk winter period (December 1997-February 1998). Coherence squared values above 0.4 indicate data are coherent at the 95% significance level. Phase differences are not reliable for coherence below the 90-95% significance level. Fig. 9. Coherence squared and phase differences (degrees) for a 10-wk summer period (JulySeptember 1998). Coherence squared values above 0.4 indicate data are coherent at the 95% significance level. Phase differences are not reliable for coherence below the 90-95% significance level. R. A. Luettich et al 22 Fig. 10. Coherence squared and phase differences (degrees) from a 10-wk winter period (December 1997 – February 1998) and summer period (July – September 1998). Coherence squared values above 0.4 indicate data are coherent to the 95% significance level. Phase differences are not reliable for coherence below the 90-95% significance level. Fig. 11. Comparison of de-meaned raw water level signal from 10-wk winter and summer periods with reconstructed tidal signal as computed from least squares analysis of seven major tidal constituents (O1, K1, N2, M2, S2, M4, M6). A 1 m mean has been added to the reconstructed tidal signal for plotting convenience. Fig. 12. Along-channel velocity component at Transect 100 in July 1998. Survey times are EDT. The white dashed line represents the zero-contour. Fig. 13. Across-channel velocity component at Transect 100 in July 1998. Survey times are EDT. The white dashed line represents the zero-contour. Fig. 14. Water column hydrography at Transect 100 in July 1998. R. A. Luettich et al 23 Figure 1. R. A. Luettich et al 24 Figure 2. n=47 n=59 n=145 n=38 n=28 4 mg/L or less 90 80 70 60 a. 50 n=24 n=3 n=5 n=7 n=25 10 n=8 20 n=22 n=117 30 n=29 40 n=17 n=103 frequency (% of samples) n=53 100 n=169 R. A. Luettich et al 25 0 0 to 1 1 to 2 2 to 3 3 to 4 4 to 5 over5 0-10 deg C 10-20 deg C 20-30 deg C 70 n=59 n=145 n=28 80 n=38 2 mg/L or less 90 n=47 50 n=53 60 b. n=5 n=22 n=8 10 n=7 n=25 20 n=117 30 n=3 n=24 n=29 40 n=17 n=103 frequency (% of samples) n=169 100 0 0 to 1 1 to 2 2 to 3 3 to 4 delta salinity (psu) Figure 3. 4 to 5 over5 R. A. Luettich et al 26 Figure 4. R. A. Luettich et al 27 Figure 5. R. A. Luettich et al 28 Figure 6. R. A. Luettich et al 29 Figure 7. R. A. Luettich et al 30 Figure 8. R. A. Luettich et al 31 Figure 9. R. A. Luettich et al 32 Figure 10. R. A. Luettich et al 33 Figure 11. R. A. Luettich et al 34 Figure 12. R. A. Luettich et al 35 Figure 13. R. A. Luettich et al 36 Figure 14.
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