ETAC Meeting June 4, 2015
Vice President
2015
Solar Resource Definition
NorthWestern retaining consultants for
evaluation of commercial scale
installations
– Generic “best practices” solar design for
Montana (DNV GL)
– Solar irradiance data for up to six sites
across six Montana divisions (Clean
Power Research)
– Simulation of solar production at a scale
where portfolio impacts can be observed
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Solar Resources - Summer
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Solar Resources - Winter
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Small-Scale Renewables
NorthWestern Customer Renewable Production - Montana
Annual
Solar
Production
(kWh)
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NWPCC
Graph C26 Historic and Range of Annual Forecast of Generation from
Rooftop Solar MWa
Growth rate lower after 2016
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Graph C26 shows the historic and range of forecast of generation from the rooftop solar. By 2035 level of generation from
rooftop solar units is estimated to be between 150 to 225 average megawatts, growing from about 30-40 average megawatts
in 2012-2013. Majority of installs are expected to be in residential units. Loads and sales figures reported in the earlier
sections of this report are net of the solar generation.
Rooftop Solar
Applying NWPCC growth to NorthWestern:
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2013 Plan Comments
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“account for net metering as well as other forms of
distributed generation”
Consider modeling net metering capacity of 25 to 45 MW by
the end of the planning horizon based on input from ETAC
5MW of solar PV installed from 1999 through 2014
954kW added in 2014
Additional 20MW over 20 years is ~1MW per year growth
Additional 40MW would be roughly double or 2MW/year
Key challenge: how do we define the resource in the
model? Meter interval data for the rooftop solar resource
does not exist.
In addition to rooftop solar what other types of small-scale
resources should be considered?
DEQ Work
This page intentionally left for
Jeff Blend.
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Carbon – 2015 RPP
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Carbon emissions treatment for 2015 Plan is work
in progress…we have many questions and not as
many answers
MPSC staff comments on 2013 Plan point to
ETAC for input & guidance
Limited references to carbon prices from
published sources since 1-1-14
EIA 2015 AEO is silent on carbon cost as are
other sources such as NRDC study, NERA,
Rhodium Group
NWPCC (Sept 2012) “Carbon emissions were a significant factor in the 5th
and 6th Power Plans, and can be expected to be a significant factor again in the 7th Plan. They are
perhaps the greatest source of environmental uncertainty the Council will need to deal with in the
7th Plan.”
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Current Portfolio
NorthWestern coal ownership 8-9% of total MT
fleet: remainder owned by out-of-state interests
Portfolio with hydroelectric assets is 41% under
2030 Clean Power Plan target
NorthWestern responsible for 80% of statewide
energy efficiency
Additional energy efficiency needs to fit a utility
business model
Supply portfolio is mostly “full”: resource additions
must be cost-effective and satisfy specific load
needs such as peak demand and flexibility
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Carbon Cost Reference Points
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Generic Carbon Values
What do you need to know?
• Beginning value
• Start date
• Rate of change
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Portfolio Modeling
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Risk premium determination requires stochastic variables
– Natural gas and electricity variability will be defined using
historic values and derived implied volatility
– Don’t recognize carbon cost in historic record (NW mkt)
– Possible alternatives for carbon price risk
o Market price of electricity (CPP compliance,
transformation)
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Need to know what states will do
States/regions to create rules of the road
What will generators do
What will the new generation fleet look like
Carbon price adder (based on CO2 emissions)
– Accounts for multiple forms of CO2 costs
– Fits with modeling construct
– Enables direct comparison of portfolio alternatives
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Stochastic / Monte Carlo Methods
• Both the stochastic and Monte Carlo
methods require a data point
distribution from which to select values
• 2013 Plan used a triangular distribution
$21.11
2021
$0
$42.22
What other distribution types or value sampling should be considered?
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Hydroelectric Resource Descriptions
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Hydroelectric Generation and Capacity Factor
Long-term Planning Assumptions
o Ten years worth of
historical production is
loaded in PowerSimm by
facility.
o NorthWestern will use low
production from the 10-year
history to simulate
minimum hydro conditions
in the 2015 Plan.
o Simulated weather
conditions will be applied
across all weather sensitive
resources and load.
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ETAC Opportunities
• PowerSimm workshop (August?)
• Viewing the model
– Inputs
– Results
– Results validation & demonstration
• Exporting results to Excel could
eliminate the need for direct access
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