Islington childcare sufficiency assessment 2015
Appendix F: Initial analysis of the six areas
APPENDIX F
INITIAL ANALYSIS OF SIX AREAS
Barnsbury (Planning Area [PA] 4)
Table F.1. Barnsbury
Supply
No. EY group settings (including
nursery classes)
No. childminders
12
Capacity and vacancies in early years group
settings (excluding nursery classes)
Capacity under twos
43
17
Capacity twos
87
No. funded after school settings
5
Capacity three to fours
156
Total capacity
286
No. funded ASC places
162
No. funded holiday settings
0
No. funded holiday places
0
No. adventure playgrounds
2
Table F.2. Population projections between school 2015 and 2020
Population
0-4s (GLA 2014)
4s (GLA 2015)
5-10s (GLA 2015)
Number in 2015
1,533
254
1,499
Projection 2020
1,575
278
1,645
Number change
42
24
146
% change
3%
9%
10%
According to LA-commissioned GLA 2015 full projections, the number of 11-18s is projected to increase by
1,025 (13%) from 7,914 young people in 2015 to 8,939 in 2020.
Headlines in relation to provision and population, compared to the other five areas

Early years childcare:
o Lowest number of provisions (including nursery classes) in the borough, including
childminders
o Lowest capacity (excluding nursery classes)
o Second lowest current population of four year olds
o Highest projected increase in population of four year olds, but only 24 in number terms – 9%
in percentage terms.

Childcare for school-aged children:
o No funded holiday provision, third lowest level of funded after school in the borough, but two
adventure playgrounds
o Second lowest current population of five to ten year olds
o Joint second lowest projected increase in population of five to ten year olds (146 – 10%)
Barnsbury has a relatively low level of childcare provision, but also relatively low population. Compared to
other areas, the projected increase in the population of four year olds between 2015 and 2020 is quite high
although it only represents 24 more children. It is likely there could be some shortages in childcare
provision. Supply of adventure play in the area may address some shortages for the over fives.
Rating in terms of gaps in childcare: Amber
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Islington childcare sufficiency assessment 2015
Appendix F: Initial analysis of the six areas
Canonbury (PA5):
Table F.3. Canonbury
Supply
No. EY group settings
(including nursery classes)
No. childminders
19
Capacity and vacancies in early years group
settings (excluding nursery classes)
Capacity under twos
86
26
Capacity twos
172
No. funded after school
settings
No. funded ASC places
4
Capacity three to fours
300
80
Total capacity
558
No. funded holiday settings
1
1
No. funded holiday places
25
No. adventure playgrounds
1
Table F.4. Population projections between 2015 and 2020
Population
0-4s (GLA 2014)
4s (GLA 2015)
5-10s (GLA 2015)
Number in 2015
2,057
348
1,945
Projection 2020
2,250
355
2,074
Number change
193
7
129
% change
9%
2%
7%
According to LA-commissioned GLA 2015 full projections, the number of 11-18s in the London Borough of
Islington is projected to increase by 1,025 (13%) from 7,914 young people in 2015 to 8,939 in 2020.
Headlines in relation to provision and population, compared to the other five areas

Early years childcare:
o Third lowest number of provisions (including nursery classes) in the borough, including
childminders
o Third lowest capacity (excluding nursery classes)
o Third lowest current population of four year olds
o Joint third highest projected increase in population of four year olds in number terms, but
only seven children (2%). Projected population of four year olds virtually static.

Childcare for school-aged children:
o Third lowest level of funded holiday provision in the borough, fifth lowest level of funded after
school, and one adventure playground
o Third lowest current population of five to ten year olds
o Lowest projected increase in population of five to ten year olds in number terms (129) and
lowest in percentage terms (7%).
Canonbury has a relatively low level of childcare provision, particularly for school-aged children. It has the
third lowest child population. The population of four year olds is projected to be virtually static. There is
more likely to be a gap in supply for the over-fives, given the population increase projections.
Rating in terms of gaps in childcare: under fives Green; over fives Amber
1
In summer 2015, the council also funded a 14 day holiday scheme in the area, but as this was exempted from Ofsted registration due to its short
length, it is not included in the analysis above.
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Islington childcare sufficiency assessment 2015
Appendix F: Initial analysis of the six areas
Finsbury (PA6):
Table F.5. Finsbury
Supply
No. EY group settings (including nursery
classes)
No. childminders
16
Capacity and vacancies in early years group
settings (excluding nursery classes)
Capacity under twos
66
20
Capacity twos
103
No. funded after school settings
3
Capacity three to fours
264
No. funded ASC places
69
Total capacity
433
No. funded holiday settings
1
No. funded holiday places
20
No. adventure playgrounds
2
Table F.6. Population projections between 2015 and 2020
Population
0-4s (GLA 2014)
4s (GLA 2015)
5-10s (GLA 2015)
Number in 2015
1,399
251
1,325
Projection 2020
1,553
254
1,489
Number change
154
3
164
% change
11%
1%
12%
According to LA-commissioned GLA 2015 full projections, the number of 11-18s in the London Borough of
Islington is projected to increase by 1,025 (13%) from 7,914 young people in 2015 to 8,939 in 2020.
Headlines in relation to provision and population, compared to the other five areas

Early years childcare:
o Second lowest number of provisions (including nursery classes) in the borough, including
childminders
o Second lowest capacity (excluding nursery classes)
o Lowest current population of four year olds.
o Second lowest projected increase in population of four year olds, with only 3 children (1%) –
population of four year olds virtually static.

Childcare for school-aged children:
o Second lowest level of funded holiday provision in the borough, lowest level of funded after
school, but two adventure playgrounds
o Lowest current population of five to ten year olds
o Fourth highest projected increase in population of five to ten year olds in number terms (164)
and third highest in percentage terms (12%)
Finsbury has the second lowest level of childcare provision and relatively low child population. Anecdotally,
it is known that there are current shortages in nursery provision. The population of four year olds is
projected to remain virtually static between 2015 and 2020. There is likely to be a gap in supply for the
over-fives, given the population increase projections. The council will need to keep a close eye on this area,
in case further population increases come on stream due to housing developments.
Rating in terms of gaps in childcare: Amber
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Islington childcare sufficiency assessment 2015
Appendix F: Initial analysis of the six areas
Highbury (PA3):
Table F.7. Highbury
Supply
No. EY group settings (including
nursery classes)
No. childminders
21
Capacity and vacancies in early years group
settings (excluding nursery classes)
Capacity under twos
159
38
Capacity twos
244
No. funded after school settings
8
Capacity three to fours
271
Total capacity
674
No. funded ASC places
231
No. funded holiday settings
3
No. funded holiday places
125
No. adventure playgrounds
1
Table F.8. Population projections between 2015 and 2020
Population
0-4s (GLA 2014)
4s (GLA 2015)
5-10s (GLA 2015)
Number in 2015
3,043
370
1,927
Projection 2020
3,100
381
2,274
Number change
57
11
347
% change
2%
3%
18%
According to LA-commissioned GLA 2015 full projections, the number of 11-18s in the London Borough of
Islington is projected to increase by 1,025 (13%) from 7,914 young people in 2015 to 8,939 in 2020.
Headlines in relation to provision and population, compared to the other five areas

Early years childcare:
o Third highest number of provisions (including nursery classes) in the borough, including
childminders
o Highest capacity (excluding nursery classes)
o Third highest current population of four year olds.
o Second highest projected increase in population of four year olds between 2015 and 2020,
but only 11 children (3%) – population of four year olds virtually static

Childcare for school-aged children:
o Highest level of funded holiday and after school provision in the borough, and one adventure
playground
o Fourth highest current population of five to ten year olds
o Second highest projected increase in population of five to ten year olds in number terms
(347) and in percentage terms (18%)
Highbury (PA3) has a relatively high level of childcare provision and population. The increase in the
population of four year olds is projected to be low between 2015 and 2020. On the other hand, there is a
high number of additional five to ten year olds projected in that period. The council will need to work with
existing providers to sustain and if possible develop provision. Supply of adventure play in the area may
address some shortages for the over fives.
Rating in terms of gaps in childcare: under fives Green; over fives Amber/Red
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Islington childcare sufficiency assessment 2015
Appendix F: Initial analysis of the six areas
Holloway (PA1):
Table F.9. Holloway
Supply
No. EY group settings (including nursery
classes)
No. childminders
23
Capacity and vacancies in early years group
settings (excluding nursery classes)
Capacity under twos
157
43
Capacity twos
206
No. funded after school settings
6
Capacity three to fours
304
Total capacity
667
No. funded ASC places
183
No. funded holiday settings
3
No. funded holiday places
84
No. adventure playgrounds
3
Table F.10. Population projections between 2015 and 2020
Population
0-4s (GLA 2014)
4s (GLA 2015)
5-10s (GLA 2015)
Number in 2015
2,332
407
2,256
Projection 2020
2,464
414
2,481
Number change
132
7
225
% change
6%
2%
10%
According to LA-commissioned GLA 2015 full projections, the number of 11-18s in the London Borough of
Islington is projected to increase by 1,025 (13%) from 7,914 young people in 2015 to 8,939 in 2020.
Headlines in relation to provision and population, compared to the other five areas


Early years childcare:
o Joint highest number of group provisions (including nursery classes) in the borough (with
Hornsey), second highest number of childminders
o Second highest capacity (excluding nursery classes)
o Second highest current population of four year olds.
o Joint third highest projected increase in population of four year olds in number terms, but
only seven children – 2%. Projected population of four year olds virtually static.
Childcare for school-aged children:
o Second highest level of funded holiday and after school provision in the borough, and three
adventure playgrounds (one providing specialist support for disabled children and young
people)
o Second highest current population of five to ten year olds
o Third highest projected increase in population of five to ten year olds in number (225) and
fourth highest in percentage terms (10%).
Holloway has a high level of childcare provision and of adventure playgrounds. Compared to other areas, it
has high population, though not quite as much as Hornsey. The population of four year olds is projected to
be virtually static. There is more likely to be a gap in supply for the over-fives, given the population increase
projections.
Rating in terms of gaps in childcare: under fives Green; over fives Amber
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Islington childcare sufficiency assessment 2015
Appendix F: Initial analysis of the six areas
Hornsey (PA2):
Table F.11. Hornsey
Supply
No. EY group settings (including
nursery classes)
No. childminders
23
Capacity and vacancies in early years group
settings (excluding nursery classes)
Capacity under twos
127
48
Capacity twos
226
No. funded after school settings
7
Capacity three to fours
302
Total capacity
655
No. funded ASC places
172
No. funded holiday settings
2
No. funded holiday places
33
No. adventure playgrounds
3
Table F.12: Population projections between 2015 and 2020
Population
0-4s (GLA 2014)
4s (GLA 2015)
5-10s (GLA 2015)
Number in 2015
2,998
485
2,351
Projection 2020
3,058
482
2,881
Number change
60
-3
530
% change
2%
-1%
23%
According to LA-commissioned GLA 2015 full projections, the number of 11-18s in the London Borough of
Islington is projected to increase by 1,025 (13%) from 7,914 young people in 2015 to 8,939 in 2020.
Headlines in relation to provision and population, compared to the other five areas

Early years childcare:
o Joint highest number of group provisions (including nursery classes) in the borough, highest
number of childminders
o Third highest capacity (excluding nursery classes)
o Highest current child population.
o The only projected decrease in population of four year olds – but only a reduction of three
children (1%). Projected population of four year olds virtually static.

Childcare for school-aged children:
o Third highest level of funded holiday and after school provision in the borough, and three
adventure playgrounds
o Highest current population of five to ten year olds
o Highest projected increase in population of five to ten year olds – a significant increase of
530 children (23%).
Hornsey (PA2) has a high level of childcare provision and of adventure playgrounds. It currently has the
highest child population and will continue to do so in 2020. A very small decrease in the population of four
year olds is projected between 2015 and 2020. On the other hand, there is a very high number of additional
five to ten year olds projected in that period. The council will need to work with existing providers to sustain
and if possible develop provision. Supply of adventure play in the area may address some shortages for the
over fives.
Rating in terms of gaps in childcare: under fives Green; over fives Red
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