Dispatch No. 143 | 3 May 2017
Zimbabweans still dissatisfied with the economy
and doubt usefulness of bond notes
Afrobarometer Dispatch No. 143 | Richman Kokera and Stephen Ndoma
Summary
Zimbabwe’s economic meltdown remains an enormous challenge affecting citizens from all
walks of life. The government’s 2009 introduction of various foreign currencies was welcomed by
many Zimbabweans who, after years of hyperinflation, witnessed a stabilization in general
consumer prices. But with lagging economic growth and a continuing drought, the country now
faces deflation and has even experienced reverse urbanization due to a lack of opportunities in
the cities (African Development Bank, 2016, 326).
In November 2016, the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe, seeking to stimulate the economy and
incentivize exports, introduced a new medium of exchange – “bond notes” pegged at par
value with the U.S. dollar – in a move seen by many observers as intended to ease crippling cash
shortages but ultimately unsustainable.
Using 2017 Afrobarometer survey findings in Zimbabwe, this paper examines public views on the
economy and the introduction of bond notes. Findings show that Zimbabweans are still largely
negative in their assessments of economic conditions in their country and their own households,
and that only a minority expect bond notes to provide much relief.
Afrobarometer survey
Afrobarometer is a pan-African, non-partisan research network that conducts public attitude
surveys on democracy, governance, economic conditions, and related issues in African
countries. Six rounds of surveys were conducted in up to 37 countries between 1999 and 2016,
and Round 7 surveys are being conducted in 2016/2017. Afrobarometer conducts face-to-face
interviews in the language of the respondent’s choice with nationally representative samples.
The Afrobarometer team in Zimbabwe, led by Mass Public Opinion Institute, interviewed 1,200
adult Zimbabweans in January and February 2017. A sample of this size yields country-level
results with a margin of error of +/-3% at a 95% confidence level. Previous surveys have been
conducted in Zimbabwe in 1999, 2004, 2005, 2009, 2010, 2012, and 2014.
Key findings
▪
▪
Almost two-thirds (63%) of Zimbabweans consider their country’s economic situation
“fairly bad” or “very bad.” A majority (56%) say the same about their personal living
conditions. These assessments are almost unchanged since 2014.
Citizens’ projections of the country’s economic future are evenly divided: One-third (33%)
expect things to be better in a year’s time, while about the same proportion (35%) think
they will be worse.
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▪
Only four in 10 Zimbabweans (39%) think that the recently introduced bond notes will
help ease the country’s economic problems, while a plurality (49%) are pessimistic about
their impact.
Economic condition of the country
Almost two-thirds (63%) of Zimbabweans consider the present economic condition of the
country “fairly bad” or “very bad,” while only one in five (20%) see it as “fairly good” or “very
good.” These assessments are almost identical to public perceptions recorded in
Afrobarometer’s 2014 survey (Figure 1). In fact, almost half (48%) of the population think that
economic conditions have gotten “worse” or “much worse” compared to 12 months ago, while
32% say they have improved.
Figure 1: Country’s economic condition | Zimbabwe | 2014-2017
100%
80%
62%
63%
60%
40%
18%
20%
20%
19%
15%
0%
Fairly/Very bad
Fairly/Very good
2014
Neither good nor bad
2017
Respondents were asked: In general, how would you describe the present economic condition of this
country?
While negative assessments of the country’s present economic condition are the majority view in
almost all socio-demographic groups, they are especially common among urban residents and
better-educated respondents (Figure 2). City dwellers are far more likely to describe the
economy as fairly/very bad (73%) than rural residents (56%). Negative assessments increase
consistently with educational attainment, from 39% of respondents with no formal schooling to
71% of those with post-secondary qualifications.
Older respondents (above age 55) are less negative in their assessments of the economy than
their younger counterparts.
Perceptions of the country’s economic condition also seem to vary greatly by province. Threefourths of residents in Harare (75%) and Manicaland (74%) see economic conditions as fairly/very
bad, while fewer than half (45%) in Mashonaland Central agree (Figure 3).
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Figure 2: Country’s economic condition bad | by urban-rural location, gender, age,
and education level | Zimbabwe | 2017
Rural
Urban
56%
73%
Female
Male
61%
65%
18-25 years
26-35 years
36-45 years
46-55 years
56-65 years
66+ years
63%
62%
65%
71%
53%
55%
No formal schooling
Primary
Secondary
Post-secondary
39%
56%
66%
71%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Respondents were asked: In general, how would you describe the present economic condition of this
country? (& who say “fairly bad” or “very bad”)
Figure 3: County’s economic condition bad | by province | Zimbabwe | 2017
Harare
75%
Manicaland
74%
Midlands
69%
Matabeleland South
66%
Bulawayo
62%
Matabeleland North
56%
Mashonaland East
56%
Mashonaland West
55%
Masvingo
54%
Mashonaland Central
45%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Respondents were asked: In general, how would you describe the present economic condition of this
country? (% who say “fairly bad” or “very bad”)
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Future economic conditions of the country
Zimbabweans are evenly divided in their outlook regarding the country’s economic future. Onethird (33%) expect the economy to be “better” or “much better” in 12 months’ time, while
another third (35%) think things will be “worse” or “much worse” (Figure 4). About one in six (16%)
believe that things are unlikely to change in the near future, while the same proportion (16%) say
they don’t know.
This is a slightly more optimistic outlook than recorded in the 2014 survey: The proportion of
respondents expecting improvement increased from 25% to 33%.
Figure 4: Country’s economic conditions in 12 months’ time | Zimbabwe | 2017
60%
50%
42%
40%
35%
30%
33%
25%
21%
20%
16%
16%
12%
10%
0%
Worse/Much
worse
Better/Much
better
2014
Same
Don’t know
2017
Respondents were asked: Looking ahead, do you expect economic conditions in this country to be better
or worse in 12 months’ time?
Views on the country’s economic outlook vary by socio-demographic characteristics (Figure 5).
The future looks bleaker to urban residents (43% who expect things to be worse in 12 months’
time) than to their rural counterparts (30%). And pessimism increases sharply with educational
attainment, ranging from 25% among those with no formal school to almost twice that level
(47%) among those with a post-secondary education. Men are slightly more pessimistic than
women (37% vs. 32%), and respondents aged 36-55 are less hopeful than their younger and
older counterparts.
Pessimism is highest in Matabeleland South (46%) and Harare (44%), while the outlook is brighter
in Masvingo (20%) and Mashonaland Central (25%) (Figure 6).
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Figure 5: Country’s economic conditions worse in 12 months’ time | by urban-rural
residence, gender, age, and education level | Zimbabwe | 2017
Rural
Urban
30%
43%
Female
Male
32%
37%
18-25 years
26-35 years
36-45 years
46-55 years
56-65 years
66+ years
32%
34%
44%
41%
24%
26%
No formal schooling
Primary
Secondary
Post-secondary
25%
30%
34%
47%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Respondents were asked: Looking ahead, do you expect economic conditions in this country to be better
or worse in 12 months’ time? (% who say “worse” or “much worse”)
Figure 6: Country’s economic conditions worse in 12 months’ time | by province
| Zimbabwe | 2017
Matabeleland South
46%
Harare
44%
Manicaland
41%
Bulawayo
38%
Midlands
37%
Matabeleland North
34%
Mashonaland West
30%
Mashonaland East
28%
Mashonaland Central
25%
Masvingo
20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Respondents were asked: Looking ahead, do you expect economic conditions in this country to be better
or worse in 12 months’ time? (% who say “worse” or “much worse”)
Copyright ©Afrobarometer 2017
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Personal living conditions
By asking respondents to describe their own living conditions, the survey also sought to establish
how different sections of society are managing at a more personal level. The results show that
more than half (56%) of Zimbabweans consider their personal living conditions “fairly bad” or
“very bad” – about the same level as in 2014 (Figure 7). About one in four (24%) say their living
conditions are “fairly good” or “very good,” while one in five (21%) say they’re neither good nor
bad.
There are no major differences in self-described personal living conditions by urban-rural
residence or gender, but youth (47%) and respondents with post-secondary education (46%) are
less likely to see their living conditions as bad than older or less-educated respondents (Figure 8).
Perceptions of personal living conditions differ significantly across provinces. Whilst more than
two-thirds of respondents in Manicaland (71%) and Bulawayo (67%) say they live in bad
conditions, fewer than half of those in Masvingo (47%), Midlands (48%), Mashonaland East (48%),
and Matabeleland South (48%) share that assessment (Figure 9).
Comparing themselves to fellow Zimbabweans, about four in 10 (38%) consider their own living
conditions “worse” or “much worse,” while 28% say they’re “better” or “much better” off and
32% think their living conditions are about the same as those of their compatriots (Figure 10).
Rural residents (42%) are more likely than urbanites (31%) to see themselves as worse off than
others. Similarly, perceptions of economic disadvantage are more common among older
respondents and less-educated citizens (Figure 11).
Majorities in Matabeleland North (56%) and Manicaland (52%) see their living conditions as
worse than their compatriots’, while this view is shared by only 27% in Bulawayo and 28% in
Masvingo (Figure 12).
Figure 7: Personal living conditions | Zimbabwe | 2017
60%
55%
56%
50%
40%
30%
22%
21%
23%
24%
20%
10%
0%
Fairly/Very bad
Neither good nor bad
2014
Fairly/Very good
2017
Respondents were asked: In general, how would you describe your own present living conditions?
Copyright ©Afrobarometer 2017
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Figure 8: Bad personal living conditions | by urban-rural residence, gender, age and
education level | Zimbabwe | 2017
Rural
Urban
55%
57%
Female
Male
55%
57%
18-25 years
26-35 years
36-45 years
46-55 years
56-65 years
66+ years
47%
55%
59%
61%
58%
64%
No formal schooling
Primary
Secondary
Post-secondary
56%
58%
58%
46%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Respondents were asked: In general, how would you describe your own present living conditions? (% who
say “fairly bad” or “very bad”)
Figure 9: Bad personal living conditions | by province | Zimbabwe | 2017
Manicaland
71%
Bulawayo
67%
Matabeleland North
62%
Mashonaland West
58%
Harare
58%
Mashonaland Central
51%
Matabeleland South
48%
Mashonaland East
48%
Midlands
48%
Masvingo
47%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Respondents were asked: In general, how would you describe your own present living conditions? (% who
say “fairly bad” or “very bad”)
Copyright ©Afrobarometer 2017
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Figure 10: Personal living conditions compared to others | Zimbabwe | 2017
60%
50%
40%
38%
32%
28%
30%
20%
10%
2%
0%
Worse/Much worse Better/Much better
Same
Don’t know
Respondents were asked: In general, how do you rate your living conditions compared to those of other
Zimbabweans?
Figure 11: Personal living conditions compared to others | by urban-rural residence,
gender, age, and education level | Zimbabwe | 2017
Rural
Urban
42%
31%
Female
Male
39%
36%
18-25 years
26-35 years
36-45 years
46-55 years
56-65 years
66+ years
33%
36%
39%
37%
43%
47%
No formal schooling
Primary
Secondary
Post-secondary
53%
43%
36%
30%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Respondents were asked: In general, how do you rate your living conditions compared to those of other
Zimbabweans? (% who say “worse” or “much worse”)
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Figure 12: Personal living conditions compared to others | by province | Zimbabwe |
2017
Matabeleland North
56%
Manicaland
52%
Midlands
42%
Matabeleland South
41%
Mashonaland West
37%
Mashonaland East
35%
Mashonaland Central
34%
Harare
32%
Masvingo
28%
Bulawayo
27%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Respondents were asked: In general, how do you rate your living conditions compared to those of other
Zimbabweans? (% who say “worse” or “much worse”)
Public views on bond notes and the economy
Regarding the government’s recent effort to stimulate the economy through “bond notes”
issued at par value with the U.S. dollar, four in 10 Zimbabweans (39%) think that the new medium
of exchange will help ease the country’s economic problems. A plurality (49%), however, do not
see them as helpful (Figure 13).
Figure 13: Views on bond notes | Zimbabwe | 2017
60%
50%
40%
49%
39%
30%
20%
12%
10%
0%
Bond notes will ease
economic problems
Bond notes will not ease
economic problems
Neither/Don't know
Respondents were asked: For each of the following statements, please tell me whether you disagree or
agree, or haven’t you heard enough to say: The introduction of bond notes will help ease Zimbabwe’s
economic problems? (% who “agree” or “strongly agree” vs. % who “disagree” or “strongly disagree”)
Copyright ©Afrobarometer 2017
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Pessimism regarding the bond notes is far more common among urban (60%) than among rural
residents (42%) and increases dramatically with education level, from 23% among those with no
formal schooling to 63% among those with post-secondary qualifications (Figure 14).
Residents in Harare (59%), Bulawayo (57%), and Manicaland (56%) are most skeptical about a
boost from bond notes (Figure 15).
Figure 14: Perception of bond notes as unhelpful | by urban-rural residence, gender,
age, and education level | Zimbabwe | 2017
Rural
Urban
42%
Female
Male
60%
47%
50%
18-25 years
26-35 years
36-45 years
46-55 years
56-65 years
66+ years
45%
35%
33%
No formal schooling
Primary
Secondary
Post-secondary
23%
0%
20%
37%
40%
47%
57%
54%
52%
60%
63%
80%
100%
Respondents were asked: For each of the following statements, please tell me whether you disagree or
agree, or haven’t you heard enough to say: The introduction of bond notes will help ease Zimbabwe’s
economic problems? (% who “disagree” or “strongly disagree”)
Figure 15: Perception of bond notes as unhelpful | by province | Zimbabwe | 2017
Harare
Bulawayo
Manicaland
Matabeleland North
Masvingo
Mashonaland West
Midlands
Mashonaland Central
Mashonaland East
Matabeleland South
59%
57%
56%
50%
48%
47%
43%
41%
40%
39%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Respondents were asked: For each of the following statements, please tell me whether you disagree or
agree, or haven’t you heard enough to say: The introduction of bond notes will help ease Zimbabwe’s
economic problems? (% who “disagree” or “strongly disagree”)
Copyright ©Afrobarometer 2017
10
Conclusion
Despite the government’s efforts to address the country’s economic crisis, a majority of
Zimbabweans see the country’s and their personal economic conditions as bad. Only a minority
of citizens expect much relief from the government’s latest attempt to stimulate the economy
and incentivize exports through the use of “bond notes.”
Do your own analysis of Afrobarometer data – on any question,
for any country and survey round. It’s easy and free at
www.afrobarometer.org/online-data-analysis.
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References
African Development Bank. (2016). African economic outlook. Co-published with the Organisation for
Economic Co-operation and Development and United Nations Development Programme.
https://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Publications/AEO_2016_Report_Full
_English.pdf.
Richman Kokera is research officer for Mass Public Opinion Institute in Harare, the Afrobarometer
national partner in Zimbabwe. Email: [email protected].
Stephen Ndoma is principal researcher for Mass Public Opinion Institute. Email:
[email protected].
Afrobarometer is produced collaboratively by social scientists from more than 30 African
countries. Coordination is provided by the Center for Democratic Development (CDD) in
Ghana, the Institute for Justice and Reconciliation (IJR) in South Africa, the Institute for
Development Studies (IDS) at the University of Nairobi in Kenya, and the Institute for Empirical
Research in Political Economy (IREEP) in Benin. Michigan State University (MSU) and the University
of Cape Town (UCT) provide technical support to the network.
Financial support for Afrobarometer Round 7 has been provided by the Swedish International
Development Cooperation Agency (SIDA), the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the William and
Flora Hewlett Foundation, the U.S. State Department, the National Endowment for Democracy,
and the World Bank.
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Afrobarometer Dispatch No. 143 | 3 May 2017
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