Selected feature: Investments and the asset risk charge December 2016 (released 16 February 2017) Disclaimer and Copyright While APRA endeavours to ensure the quality of this publication, it does not accept any responsibility for the accuracy, completeness or currency of the material included in this publication and will not be liable for any loss or damage arising out of any use of, or reliance on, this publication. © Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia Licence (CCBY 3.0). This licence allows you to copy, distribute and adapt this work, provided you attribute the work and do not suggest that APRA endorses you or your work. To view a full copy of the terms of this licence, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/au/ AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY 2 Investments and the asset risk charge This feature describes emerging trends in general insurers’ investments and the implications on capital adequacy. It also highlights how newly released statistics in the Quarterly General Insurance Performance Statistics publication can be interpreted and used for analysis. Findings General insurers have slightly shifted the risk profile of their investment portfolio in recent years. However, the total asset risk charge has remained relatively stable. In 2013 and 2014, the counterparty quality of direct interest bearing investments for general insurers gradually decreased, with a small shift from grade 2 to grades 3 and 4. The distribution of the counterparty grades has remained largely unchanged in 2015 and 2016 (see appendix for definitions of the counterparty grades). General insurers have recently increased their direct holdings in equity. Indirect equity holdings had been on a decreasing trend in 2014 and 2015, but this trend was no longer observed in 2016. Whilst property investments remain a relatively low proportion of the investment portfolio for general insurers, this has increased in recent years, particularly for indirect holdings. Understanding the asset risk charge The asset risk charge is the minimum amount of capital required to be held against asset risks. The asset risk charge relates to the risk of adverse movements in the value of an institution’s on-balance sheet and off-balance sheet exposures. Asset risk can be derived from a number of sources, including market risk and credit risk. The asset risk charge is determined by the impact on capital base as a result of the following stresses: Real interest rate stress Expected inflation stress Foreign exchange (currency) stress Equity stress Property stress Credit spread stress Default stress Negative capital base impacts from each stress are then aggregated allowing for diversification impacts, with tax benefit deductions and adjustments approved by APRA to calculate the asset risk charge. Details of the asset risk charge calculation are outlined in GPS 114 Capital Adequacy: Asset Risk Charge. AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY 3 1. Asset risk charge The total asset risk charge has remained relatively stable over time (figure 1). However, there have been trends in the risk profile of investments of general insurers which have led to a redistribution of a number of its components. Figure 1: Components of the asset risk charge Notes: The black line represents the total asset risk charge Currency, expected inflation and real interest rate stress components include both upwards and downwards components, which contribute to the overall risk charge ‘Other components’ includes tax benefit deductions and adjustments to the asset risk charge approved by APRA The main components of the asset risk charge that have shifted as a result of the movements in investment risk profile are the property, equity and credit spread stress components (figure 2). The value of these stress components can be interpreted as the magnitude that the capital base falls under a given stress. AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY 4 Figure 2: Property, equity and credit spread stress components of the asset risk charge Credit spread stress mostly impacts interest bearing investments compared to other balance sheet items. The trend of an increasing credit spread stress component has been largely associated with the counterparty grade distributions of direct interest bearing investments from grade 2 to grades 3 and 4. This is reflective of the changes in default risk associated with the credit spread stress1. The trends in the equity stress component have largely aligned with the trends of total equity investments. However, the trends in the equity stress component have been further exacerbated by the movements in dividend yields. An increasing trend in dividend yields up until the end of 2015 had contributed to lower adverse stress test outcomes, which contributed to the decreasing trend in the equity stress component. The increase in the property stress component for general insurers was largely related to the increase in total property investments. To a lesser extent, this was also impacted by declines in rental yields, which led to larger negative stress test outcomes on property investments. Additional details on the changes in the investment portfolio for general insurers are explored in the next section. 1 The credit spread stress component measures the impact on the capital base of an increase in credit spreads and risk of default. However, the default stress component applies to all credit or counterparty exposures that have not been affected by the credit spread stress. AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY 5 2. Changes in investment portfolio for general insurers a) Direct interest bearing investments Interest bearing investments continue to make up most of the investment portfolio for general insurers, particularly in direct holdings. As at 31 December 2016, direct interest bearing investments was $51.0 billion, which was 74.8 per cent of total investments. Whilst this component of the investment portfolio has shown relatively little variability over time, there were shifts in the underlying counterparty composition (see appendix for definitions of the counterparty grades). The proportion of direct interest bearing investments with counterparty grade 1 for general insurers remained relatively stable in recent years. However, the composition of interest bearing investments has shifted from counterparty grade 2 to grades 3 and 4 for a number of institutions. This trend has since stabilised in 2015 and 2016 (figure 3). Figure 3: Direct interest bearing investments by counterparty grade As at 31 December 2016, there were 26.1 per cent of direct interest bearing investments in counterparty grade 2, down from 33.8 per cent as at 31 December 2013. In contrast, 20.0 per cent of direct interest bearing investments were with counterparty grades 3 and 4 as at 31 December 2016, up from 13.9 per cent as at 31 December 2013. AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY 6 b) Equity investments Total equity investments (direct and indirect) for general insurers was $3.2 billion as at 31 December 2016, which represented 4.8 per cent of total investments. Of this, 50.7 per cent were indirect holdings. Whilst total equity investments had no clear trend in recent years, there were different trends for direct and indirect holdings (figure 4). Figure 4: Equity investments by direct and indirect holdings Direct equity investments has steadily trended upwards in recent years. As at 31 December 2016, direct equity investments was $1.6 billion, an increase of 47.6 per cent from 31 December 2013 ($1.1 billion). In contrast, indirect equity investments trended downwards in 2014 and 2015, but this trend was no longer observed in 2016. These trends were largely associated with investment reallocations from large insurance groups. AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY 7 c) Property investments Property investments remain a relatively low proportion of the investment portfolio for general insurers. However, there has been growth overall in this component in recent years (figure 5). As at 31 December 2016, property investments made up 1.3 per cent of the total investment portfolio, which was up from 0.8 per cent as at 31 December 2013. Figure 5: Property investments by direct and indirect holdings As at 31 December 2016, total property investments (direct and indirect) for general insurers was $0.9 billion. This was an increase of 77.4 per cent compared to 31 December 2013 ($0.5 billion). The increase in total property investments was largely associated with a number of institutions increasing their holdings of indirect property investments. Indirect property investments made up 85.6 per cent of total property investments as at 31 December 2016, which was up from 53.5 per cent as at 31 December 2013. AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY 8 Appendix – Counterparty grade definitions The following table shows long-term counterparty grade definitions according to agency ratings. Additional detail can be found in GPS 001 – Definitions. Table 6: Long-term counterparty grade definitions according to agency ratings as per GPS 001 Grade 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Standard & Poor’s Moody’s AM Best AAA AA+ AA AAA+ A ABBB+ BBB BBBBB+ BB BBB+ B B- Aaa Aa1 Aa2 Aa3 A1 A2 A3 Baa1 Baa2 Baa3 Ba1 Ba2 Ba3 B1 B2 B3 Debt aaa aa+ aa aaa+ a abbb+ bbb bbbbb+ bb bbb+ b b- Below B- Below B3 Below b- AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY FSR A++ A+ A AB++ B+ B BC++ C+ C CBelow C- Fitch AAA AA+ AA AAA+ A ABBB+ BBB BBBBB+ BB BBB+ B BBelow B- 9 AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY 3
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