The UK’s urban revolution – what
does it mean for Manchester?
Regional Total Employment Growth (Annualised)
4.5%
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
Source: Oxford Economics
North West just behind London
Economic update
2011-2014
2014-2017
Forecast GDP growth
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
Economic update
Greater Manchester to outperform
Source: Oxford Economics
2015
2016
2017
Annualised
Office (Private Sector) employment growth (2009-2014)
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
Source: Oxford Economics
Manchester leads the way
Economic update
Office employment growth forecast
Manchester
Employment growth pa, 2015-2019
2.5%
2.0%
Source: Oxford Economics
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
Manchester Greater
London
Economic update
Leeds
Bristol
Liverpool Edinburgh Glasgow Birmingham Newcastle
Total Employment Growth 2014-2019
Growth Forecast
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
-5.0%
-10.0%
-15.0%
Economic update
Strength in professional & business services
Source: Oxford Economics
GDP per capita
Manchester lags European rivals
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
European comparison
Source: Oxford Economics
JLL City momentum index 2015
European top 12
Economy
1
London
Connectivity
2
Corporate activity
3
Environment
10
Education
11
Dublin
Munich
Copenhagen
Stockholm
Edinburgh
Paris
Oslo
Randstad
Berlin
Manchester
R&D
12
Glasgow
Construction
4
5
Property prices
6
Real estate investment
7
Technology
8
9
Source: JLL, 2015
European comparison
JLL City Momentum Index 2015
Helsinki
Oslo
Europe Top 12
Glasgow
Edinburgh
Birmingham
Randstad
Hamburg
London
Düsseldorf
Brussels
Cologne
Frankfurt
Paris
Stuttgart
Zurich
Stockholm
Northwest Europe
Manchester
Dublin
St. Petersburg
Moscow
Copenhagen
Berlin
Warsaw
Kiev
Prague
Munich
Lyon
Vienna
Budapest
Milan
Bucharest
Madrid
Lisbon
Barcelona
Source: JLL, January 2015
European comparison
Rome
Istanbul
Athens
Investment volumes
3500
3000
The North West
Source: JLL
North West
Greater Manchester
£m
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2008
2009
Investment market
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Prime office yields compared to their last peak and trough
Southern
Europe
CEE
13.00
12.00
11.00
10.00
9.00
8.00
7.00
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
Northern/ Western Europe
Last Peak
Last Trough
Q4 2014
Warsaw
Prague
Budapest
Moscow
Bucharest
Milan
Lisbon
Madrid
Barcelona
Prime Office Yields (%) cyclical low and high
Source: JLL, January 2015
Investment market
Berlin
Copenhagen
Hamburg
Lyon
Dusseldorf
Stockholm
London - City
Munich
Luxembourg
Brussels
London - WE
Helsinki
Paris - CBD
Frankfurt
Amsterdam
Leeds
Rotterdam
Manchester
Birmingham
Utrecht
The Hague
Oslo
Glasgow
Edinburgh
Paris - LDF
Dublin
In %
Source: JLL, January 2015
Investment volumes European comparison
MUNICH AVG
£3.3bn
Source: JLL
HAMBURG AVG
£2.0bn
MANCHESTER 2014
£1.7bn
LYON 2014
£613m
Investment market