GLOBAL SECURE Theme 12:
Optimal Management of Water Resources and Flood Risk for
Hydropower Generation
Yangtze River
Three Gorges Dam
Wuhan
Yichang
Chongqing
Dongting Lake
Newcastle Researchers: Qiuhua Liang, Paul
Quinn, Alex Nicholson, Lili Zhang, Bin
He, Yaodong Wang, Lin Chen, Hongdong Yu,
Stephen Birkinshaw and Mark Wilkinson
China Partners: Junxian Yin, Bende Wang,
Yunfa Zhao
Puyang Lake
Shanghai
GLOBAL SECURE MISSION:
Main objectives of Theme 12
1. Compare the current practice in water resources and
flow extremes in China and the UK
2. Develop an integrated toolkit for the optimal
Yangtze River
Three Gorges Dam
Wuhan
Shanghai
management of water resources Yichang
and flood risk for
Chongqing
hydropower generation
Dongting Lake
Puyang Lake
3. Determine the sensitivity of the Three Gorges Dam to
upstream climate and land use change
Collaboration with Dalian University of Technology,
Dalian, China, 15 – 18 March 2013
Yangtze River
Three Gorges Dam
Wuhan
Yichang
Chongqing
Dongting Lake
Puyang Lake
Shanghai
Collaboration with Three Gorges Dam
Ltd, China, 19 – 20 March 2013
Yangtze River
Three Gorges Dam
Wuhan
Yichang
Chongqing
Dongting Lake
Puyang Lake
Shanghai
Collaboration with China Institute of Water Resources
& Hydropower, Beijing, 21 – 25 March 2013
Yangtze River
Three Gorges Dam
Wuhan
Yichang
Chongqing
Dongting Lake
Puyang Lake
Shanghai
BACKGROUND:
Three Gorges Dam (TGD)
• TGD contains nearly 40km3 of
water and has a surface area
of 1,045km2 (spanning 660km of
the upper Yangtze River)
• At full capacity, Three
can Gorges
generate
Dam
100 TWh annually from its 34
turbines
Yangtze River
• Construction of the Dam
displaced a town of 1.13
million inhabitants
• Downstream flood protection
increased from a return period
of 1:10 to 1:100 years
Shanghai
BACKGROUND:
Land use
• Forestry in the upper Yangtze help
to moderate discharge of river
water
• The Yangtze basin (1,800,000 km2)
contributes nearly half of China’s
crop production including
moreDam
Three Gorges
than 2/3 of the total volume of
rice
Yangtze River
• Most cultivation occurs near the
delta, downstream of TGD –
highlighting a high demand for
water.
• Water supply for urban areas
• Industrial water consumption
Shanghai
BACKGROUND:
Shrinkage
• Central Yangtze basin once
described as the Land of a Thousand
Lakes, rich in biodiversity.
Three lakes
Gorges Dam
• During the 1960s, many
were
disconnected from the river and
left to dry up to claim for urban
Yangtze River
and agricultural land.
• Less able to cope with floods and
the shrinkage reduces biodiversity.
(The Yangtze basin provides 50-60%
of the fish eaten in China)
Shanghai
BACKGROUND:
Yangtze River Delta at Shanghai
• Shanghai estuary prone to
salt water intrusion
especially when flow is
reduced in the Yangtze
Three Gorges Dam
• Dams contribute to the
reduction of sediment flow
Yangtze River
downstream. Sediment
transport is vital to
protect Shanghai from
coastal flooding
Shanghai
DATA MANAGEMENT:
Collation of resources and preparation of data for
modelling
Yangtze River
Three Gorges Dam
Wuhan
Yichang
Chongqing
Dongting Lake
--Raingauges
within
the
catchment
--Flow use
gauging
sites
upstream
and
--Land
data
for the
catchment
2
--90m
DEM and
resampled
into
a 10km
geo-referenced
andTGD
gaps
in
the
downstream
ofresampled
the
formatted
collated
onto
the
grid
data
nearestfor
into2 corrected
daily
and checked
10km
grid datausing
neighbour
interpolation
errors
Puyang Lake
Shanghai
SHETRAN V4
Evapotranspiration
Canopy interception
Root zone
Overland &
channel
flow
Landslides,
Snowmelt
erosion &
sediment
transport
Surface
contamination
Contaminant
migration
Unsaturated
zone
3D Variably
saturated
subsurface
flow model
Stream–aquifer interactions
•
3D flow and transport can be simulated for combinations of confined,
unconfined and perched aquifer systems
•
Soil erosion and sediment yield derives from raindrop impact, overland
flow and shallow landsliding
SHETRAN MODELLING:
Calibration and basic modelling tests
Yangtze River
Three Gorges Dam
Wuhan
Yichang
Chongqing
Dongting Lake
Puyang Lake
Shanghai
SHETRAN MODELLING:
Calibration and basic modelling tests
80000
70000
Discharge (m3/s)
60000
Pre Change
Less 10% Rain
Less 20% Rain
Less 30% Rain
50000
40000
Yangtze River
Three Gorges Dam
Wuhan
Yichang
30000
20000
10000
0
Chongqing
Dongting Lake
Puyang Lake
Shanghai
SHETRAN MODELLING:
Calibration and basic modelling tests
80000
70000
Pre Change
More 10%
More 20%
Discharge (m3/s)
60000
50000
40000
Yangtze River
Three Gorges Dam
Wuhan
Yichang
30000
20000
10000
0
Chongqing
Dongting Lake
Puyang Lake
Shanghai
SHETRAN MODELLING:
Calibration and basic modelling tests
4500
totals (mm) over 4 years
4000
precipitation
evaporation
discharge
3500
3000
Yangtze River
2500
Three Gorges Dam
Shanghai
Wuhan
Yichang
2000
Chongqing
1500
Dongting Lake
Puyang Lake
1000
500
0
less 30%
less 20%
less 10%
baseline
more 10%
more 20%
SHETRAN MODELLING:
Realistic climate and land use change simulations
•
•
•
•
•
1800
Cumulative totals after 4
years (mm)
Realistic CMIP5 simulations from source:
1600 comes from GLC2000 database:
Land cover
http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5/index.html
http://bioval.jrc.ec.europa.eu/products/glc2000/products.php
For
every
2.5 degree grid square (of which there are 20 in the
1400
1km grid
resolution.
Amalgamated
to 7factor.
different
types
1. at
Using
CMIP5,
overall
1.6% reduction
in
discharge
mostly
catchment)
there
is aa
monthly
change
1200
Arable,
2.
Deciduous
forest,
3. Evergreen
forest, from
4. (which
the
end
wetfactor
season
(September
to
November)
a 10.3
There
isof
a the
change
for
rainfall
and
temperature
Cum. Can. Evap.
Shrub/herbacious,
5.
Rice,
6.Three
Lakes/wetland,
7. Bare
increase
in
actual
and
a 4.7% increase
in rock/soil.
rainfall
has
been1000
converted
toRiver
a PE factor).
Shanghai
Yangtzeevaporation
Gorges Dam
Cum. Soil Evap.
Wuhan
Simulations
trees
all
removed
or thean
entire
catchment
• In
September
there
is
only
a
1.8% increase
in
rainfall
and4.7%
The
scenario
(rcp85
for
2050-2060)
gives
areal
average
800 with
Cum. Trans
Yichang
planted
trees.
Currently
approximately
15% Discharge
is
forested.
there
is with
actually
a reduction
in
rainfall
the
lower
increase
in rainfall
(2% in the
NE
of the around
catchment
to
10% part
in A
Cum.
Chongqing
600
reduction
from
to September
zero and
produces
a 2.5% increase
in an
of
the
catchment
from
to November.
the
west
of
the 15%
catchment)
13%
increase
in PE (from
400
discharge.
increase from
15% to 2
100%
a 21%
increase
in An
temperature
of between
and produces
3⁰C). Puyang
Lake
Dongting Lake
reduction
in is
discharge.
• The
scenario
the mean of all the GCM model outputs (of which
200
there are 80 models).
0
baseline
all trees
no trees
GORGE MODEL:
Simple model to simulate the function of the reservoir and
dam with flow input from SHETRAN
River
flow
Reservoir
level
volume
store
Yangtze River
Three Gorges Dam
Yichang
Chongqing
Outflow from
reservoir
(based on
Shanghai
sinusoidal
Wuhan
relationship)
Dongting Lake
Puyang Lake
GORGE MODEL:
Simple inflow/outflow model to simulate the function of
the reservoir and dam with flow input from SHETRAN
Scenario
Change in Av. Qout Change in Av. TGD
from TGD (%)
reservoir stage (%)
Risk during
simulation
20% more rain
+ 25
+ 2.0
High (full during all
wet seasons)
10% more rain
+ 16
+ 0.9
Low (full during 1 wet
season)
Baseline
…
…
…
CMIP5
- 0.5 Yangtze River
Three Gorges Dam
- 0.5
10% less rain
- 17
- 1.6
20% less rain
- 33
30% less rain
- 48
Yichang
With
simulated
SHETRAN
Chongqing
With
simulated
SHETRAN
With
observed
inflow
data
data
for
30%
less
rainfall
data for 20% more rainfall
Dongting Lake
- per
3.7 year
per
year
- 9.8
No change
Wuhan
Shanghai
High (reduction in
outflow during dry
seasons)
Puyang Lake
High (reduction in
outflow during dry
seasons)
High (reduction in
outflow during dry
seasons and reaches
critical low during 2
dry seasons)
DASH Modelling:
2D hydraulic model to simulate the function of the
reservoir and dam with flow input from SHETRAN
Yangtze River
Three Gorges Dam
Wuhan
Yichang
Chongqing
Dongting Lake
Puyang Lake
Shanghai
FROM ENVIRONMENT TO ENERGY:
What do these catchment sensitivities mean for the TGD?
•
We have demonstrated the sensitive nature of the
catchment upstream of the TGD with regard to massive
extremes in rainfall and potential changes to land use
•
Yangtze River
Shanghai
Three Gorges Dam
Wuhandownstream?
How will these impact hydropower generation
Yichang
•
Can the catchment beChongqing
managed to prevent risk to
hydropower generation?
•
Dongting Lake
Puyang Lake
Potential modifications to hydropower generation due to
a changing catchment: using smaller-scale case studies
Sustainable hydropower generation:
High flows used to produce hydrogen to relieve demand
during peak usage
Hydrogen storage
Electricity
Hydrogen generator
Yangtze River
Three Gorges Dam
Wuhan
Shanghai
Yichang
Chongqing
Dongting Lake
Puyang Lake
Abandoned water
Hydrogen as fuel for
transportation
Hydrogen power
generation/generator
Sustainable hydropower generation:
High flows used to produce hydrogen to relieve demand
during peak usage
Month
1
2
4350
4000
Water-head (m)
108.5
108.5
Hours of power
744
672
Flow rate (m3/s)
Assumption:
3
4
5
6
5% of electricity for
4500
3720
12000
18600
hydrogen
generation.
generation (h)
Yangtze River
Month
Flow rate (m3/s)
7
30000
Three
8
Chongqing
28200
Water-head (m)
78
78
Hours of power
744
744
generation (h)
Hydrogen & electricity
Production model
108.5
108.5
78
78
26600
19800
10700
6030
Input data:
744
720 rate
744
720
Water flow
Water head
Shanghai
Gorges
Damof power
Hours
Wuhan
9 Yichang10
11
12
generation
per month
78Dongting
108.5
108.5
Lake model
Mathematic
Puyang Lake 108.5
720
744
720
N=9.81*η*Q* H
W= N*T
MH2=0.05*W/EH2* η H2*ρH2
W engine=0.05* W * ηengine
List of input data
744
Sustainable hydropower generation:
Results
Dymola
generator production
production
Dymola
output
of
monthly/yearly
hydrogen
Dymolaoutput
outputof
ofmonthly/yearly
monthly/yearlyhydropower
hydrogen production
generator
•
•
•
More electric power were generated during
wet season between June to October.
Total 85,000
tons/year
of hydrogen
will be
Yangtze River
Three Gorges
Dam
Wuhan
produced.
Yichang
1,350,000 kWh/ Chongqing
year of electricity will be
generated by hydrogen engine& generator.
Dongting Lake
Puyang Lake
Shanghai
Outcomes and Key successes:
• Upper Yangtze Catchment has been simulated
• Impact on the Three Gorges Dam introduced – sensitive to
climatic and land use change
• Impacts on hydropower generation have been established
Yangtze River
Three Gorges Dam
Shanghai
Wuhan
Yichang of data for
• We have demonstrated the importance
Chongqing
understanding the catchment and its processes
Puyang
Dongting Lake
Lake
• Possible optimisation to hydropower with hydrogen
generation discussed
Future vision:
CLEAN WATER AND CLEAN ENERGY
In a rapidly changing environment
New project: SECURE – PLAN 4 WATER & ENERGY
Year
1
2
New study site
New dam site
3
4
5
Evaluate a
Formulate an
SECURE plan
holistic
catchment plan
Set up
International
demonstration
catchment workshop
activities
The Yangtze Environmental Virtual
Observatory?
•Data
•Models
•Human activity
Knowledge
Information
and communication
Management
An observatory is an independent home
for data, models and discussion. It allows all
Stakeholders to access, learn and contribute to
the observatory
Questions?
http://www.ncl.ac.uk/ceg/research/water/floodrisk/hydropower/
index.htm
Yangtze River
Three Gorges Dam
Wuhan
Yichang
Chongqing
Dongting Lake
Newcastle Researchers: Qiuhua Liang, Paul
Quinn, Alex Nicholson, Lili Zhang, Bin
He, Yaodong Wang, Lin Chen, Hongdong Yu,
Stephen Birkinshaw and Mark Wilkinson
China Partners: Junxian Yin, Bende Wang,
Yunfa Zhao
Puyang Lake
Shanghai