Integrated Climate Protection in a Megalopolis
– the
th case off Gauteng,
G t
South
S th Africa
Af i
Dr. Till Jenssen
Berlin, November 3rd 2010
Energy as a Key Element of an Integrated Climate
Protection Concept for the City Region of Gauteng, South Africa
Jenssen, EnerKey Team
Integrated Climate Protection
Nov.
Febr.
Febr.
3rd2009
,2009
2010
1
A concept for efficient energy and climate protection structures
A concept for efficient energy and climate protection structures
Training, capacity building
and technology transfer
Jenssen, EnerKey Team
Energy supp
ply technologies
s
Long term perspective
development
p
Transporrt and mo
T
obility
Scenario analysis and
policy recommendations
Buiildings a
and settlements
Socio-demographic
Socio
demographic determinants
Integrated Climate Protection
Tshwane
EkurhuEkurhu
Johannes- leni
burg
Nov.
Febr.
Febr.
3rd2009
,2009
2010
2
Energy demand and CO2‐emissions by sector
Energy demand and CO
‐emissions by sector
Mio. t CO2
PJ
400
Energy demand
48,7%
Total Final Energy Demand by Sector [801 PJ]
53,7%
9.0%
60
0.5%
33.3%
350
300
50
CO2 emissions
33%
40
48.7%
8.5%
250
Transport
Commerce
Residential
Government
Industry
200
150
1 %
17%
100
20
15,8%
8,5%
9,0%
12,6%
50
10
0,5% 1,2%
0
Transport
Transport
p
Jenssen, EnerKey Team
Residential
Residential
30
Industry
Industryy
Commerce
Commerce
Integrated Climate Protection
0
Government
Government
Nov.
Febr.
Febr.
3rd2009
,2009
2010
3
The Ecological Footprint of Gauteng
The Ecological Footprint of Gauteng
12
10
gha/capita
8
6
4
2
es
es
Co
un
tri
ou
nt
ri
e
C
Lo
w
M
id
dl
e
In
co
m
Co
un
tr i
es
e
In
co
m
h
Hi
g
In
co
m
e
W
or
ld
ca
Af
ri
So
ut
h
Ca
na
da
Un
i
te
d
Ki
ng
do
m
an
y
G
er
m
To
wn
Ca
pe
ag
ar
y
Ca
l
Lo
nd
on
Be
rli
n
0
Land use
Service
t/a
Land area (gha)
Land area (gha/cap)
Built-up land
Residence,
R
id
IIndustry,
d t
Commerce and Traffic
-
960,987
0.09
Solid Waste
5,729,520
1,369
0.00
Timber Pulp and Paper
Timber,
-
2 822 000
2,822,000
0 27
0.27
Food
5,592,710
12,400,293
1.19
Energy
gy ((GHG-Emissions))
102,066,000
28,073,669
2.69
-
44,780,882
4.29
Forest
Grazing and
Cropland
Carbon
F t i t
Footprint
Total
Jenssen, EnerKey Team
Integrated Climate Protection
Nov.
Febr.
Febr.
3rd2009
,2009
2010
4
First EnerKey Performance Certificate to City of Joburg
First EnerKey Performance Certificate to City of Joburg
Other implementation
activities
• Energy management
• Energy auditors training
• SeTAR stove test
center
• iEEECo settlements
• ASH climate house
• Long term perspective
group (ELPG)
• EnerKey schools
project
• Training for energy
planners
• CDM evaluation tools
• CDM PoA development
Jenssen, EnerKey Team
Integrated Climate Protection
Nov.
Febr.
Febr.
3rd2009
,2009
2010
5
Cost – potential curve for CO
Cost potential curve for CO2 emission reduction
emission reduction
3,500
Rapeseed biodiesel
3,000
Costly
LPG cooking – Income group (I) & (II)
2,000
1,500
LPG space heating
Income group (III)
1,000
LPG cooking
Income group (III)
Wind (high speed)
500
Concentrated
Solar Power
Sugar cane bioetthanol
GHG Abate
ement cost (R 007 / t CO2eq )
2,500
Wind (low speed)
Wi d ((mid
Wind
id speed)
d)
0
Promising!!
-500
SWH-FP – Income group (IV)
SWH-FP – Income group (III)
-1,000
CFL lighting – All income groups
-1,500
Paying off
today!!
y -2,000
Kettle – Income group (I)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
Cummulative GHG emission reduction potential (kt CO2eq / a)
Jenssen, EnerKey Team
Integrated Climate Protection
Nov.
Febr.
Febr.
3rd2009
,2009
2010
6
What could Gauteng look like in 2040?
What could Gauteng look like in 2040?
Scenarios for Gauteng
Socio‐Economic Framework
Population
Employment
Poverty and
Equity
2007
2040
2007
2040
Income
Distribution
GDP
World Oil Prices
Series of Energy Scenarios
Reference
Energy Strategy
gy
Imple‐
mented
Policies
GIES Energy Targets
Low Carbon Province
GIES CO2 Targets
Least Cost
GET
IPO
Solar Province
LGS
LGL
CO2 Emission as required by science (LTMS)
LRS
LGL&LGS: -38 % CO2-Emissions in 2040
LGS: additional modal shift to public transport and higher share of alternatives
LRS: - 40 % CO2- Emissions in 2040 (2007 level)
Jenssen, EnerKey Team
Integrated Climate Protection
Nov.
Febr.
Febr.
3rd2009
,2009
2010
77
CO2 emissions by sector for different scenarios
emissions by sector for different scenarios
CO
O2 [Mt]
Agriculture
Government
Residential
Electricity
Mining
Trade
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
IPO:
Implemented
p e e ed
Policies
LGL:
Provincial CO2
Targets
LGS:
Provincial CO2
Targets - Solar
IPO
2007
•
•
•
Construction
Manufactoring
Transport
IPO
LGL
LGS
2025
LRS
IPO
LGL
LGS
LRS
2040
LRS:
Required by
science
to reach global 2°
path
p
With current policies: emissions double in 2040
Huge potential: decarbonisation of electricity generation
Huge potential: decarbonisation of electricity generation
Gauteng can reach 2° path Jenssen, EnerKey Team
Integrated Climate Protection
Nov.
Febr.
Febr.
3rd2009
,2009
2010
8
A climate protection concept for a megalopolis…
● …requires an integrative view on technologies, technologysystems and the socioeconomic framework!
● …is a balancing act with regards to environmental, social and
economic challenges!
● …calls for incremental projects and technology transfer
(practical connectivity) united under a common, accepted
umbrella!
● …needs long term perspectives and participatory-visionary
planning!
Jenssen, EnerKey Team
Integrated Climate Protection
Nov.
Febr.
Febr.
3rd2009
,2009
2010
9
A work p
performed within the
EnerKey project
www.enerkey.co.za
funded by the German Ministry
of Education and Research
Thank you
very much
for your
attention!
This project is supported by:
Dr. Till Jenssen
Institute of Energy Economics and the Rationale Use of Energy
D
Department
t
t System
S t
Analysis
A l i and
dR
Renewable
bl E
Energies
i (SEE)
Heßbrühlstr. 49; D - 70565 Stuttgart; www.ier.uni-stuttgart.de
Tel. +49-(0)711-685 878 68, [email protected]
Jenssen, EnerKey Team
Integrated Climate Protection
Nov.
Febr.
Febr.
3rd2009
,2009
2010
10