GLOBAL EVENTS, TRENDS & IMPACTS FROM A MACRO-LEVEL VIEW EVESTMENT INSTITUTIONAL INVESTMENT INTELLIGENCE 2016 SPEAKERS: Tate Haymond Charles Ashwanden Peter Laurelli Samuel Lanasa GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITY CURRENCY TRENDS THE SHIFT FROM DIVERSIFIED ASSET CLASS HOST GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITY Asset Flow and Activity Analysis (07/2015 – 06/2016) GLOBAL EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY – TOTAL AUM ($M) 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITY - ACTIVE VS. PASSIVE NET FLOW ($M) 10,000 5,000 0 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 -5,000 -10,000 -15,000 -20,000 Flows into Active Flows into Passive Q2 2016 GEM ACTIVE EQUITY AUM GROWTH BY DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL (07/15 - 06/16) SEGREGATED ACCOUNTS INSTITUTIONAL -10.8% -10.9% FUNDS RETAIL FUNDS MSCI EM EQUITY 1 YR RETURN -11.7% -17.3% Global Emerging Market Active Equity – 1 Year Net Asset Outflow Analysis by 3yr performance quartile ranking (07/15 - 06/16) TOP QUARTILE $-14,684.4 2ND QUARTILE 3RD QUARTILE BOTTOM QUARTILE -17,187.58 $-18,293.6 $-26,129.2 Global Emerging Market Active Equity – 1 Year Net Asset Inflow Analysis by 3yr performance quartile ranking $19,018.3 $10,757.4 $5,817.1 2,338.91 TOP QUARTILE 2ND QUARTILE 3RD QUARTILE * Quartiles are based on 3 year performance as of end of Q2 2016 relative to the eVestment Emerging Markets Equity Peer Group BOTTOM QUARTILE GEM Active Equity – 1 year Net Flows by quartile: Fees TOP QUARTILE (HIGHEST FEE) 2ND QUARTILE 3RD QUARTILE BOTTOM QUARTILE $-13,470.8 $-2,274.6 $-2,670.4 $-465.6 GEM Active Equity – 1 year Net Flows by quartile: Portfolio Concentration TOP QUARTILE (MOST CONCENTRATED) 2ND QUARTILE 3RD QUARTILE BOTTOM QUARTILE $-5,046.6 $-2,561.9 $-6,651.3 $-12,954.1 GEM Active Equity – 1 year Net Flows by quartile: Tracking Error (3yr) TOP QUARTILE (HIGHEST TE) 2ND QUARTILE 3RD QUARTILE BOTTOM QUARTILE $-2,417.7 $-5,130.1 $-8,202.1 $-13,357.4 GEM Active Equity – 1 year Net Flows by quartile: Standard Deviation (3yr) TOP QUARTILE (HIGHEST SD) 2ND QUARTILE 3RD QUARTILE BOTTOM QUARTILE $-1,573.8 $-5,241.0 $-5,648.4 $-6,644.2 GEM ACTIVE EQUITY – 1 YEAR NET FLOWS BY QUARTILE: ACTIVE SHARE TOP QUARTILE (HIGHEST ACTIVE SHARE) $525.1 2ND QUARTILE 3RD QUARTILE BOTTOM QUARTILE $-2,155.9 $-10,890.1 $-17,382.3 GEM Active Equity – 1 year Net Flows by quartile: Dividend Yield (1yr) TOP QUARTILE (HIGHEST DY) 2ND QUARTILE 3RD QUARTILE BOTTOM QUARTILE $-1,702.2 $-7,319.5 $-10,703.5 $-8,472.0 GEM Equity - 1 year Net Flow by quartile: Portfolio Allocation to China TOP QUARTILE (HIGEST ALLOCATION) 2ND QUARTILE $-2,009.8 $-5,614.2 3RD QUARTILE BOTTOM QUARTILE GEM Equity - 1 year Net Flow by quartile: Portfolio Allocation to Eastern Europe TOP QUARTILE (HIGEST ALLOCATION) 2ND QUARTILE $-3,291.5 3RD QUARTILE BOTTOM QUARTILE $-1,668.3 $-4,783.7 $-8,361.5 $-24,026.7 GEM Equity - 1 year Net Flow by quartile: Portfolio Allocation to Far East ex-China $-20,079.5 $816.0 TOP QUARTILE (HIGHEST ALLOCATION) 2ND QUARTILE 3RD QUARTILE BOTTOM QUARTILE $-7,806.0 GEM Equity - 1 year Net Flow by quartile: Portfolio Allocation to Latin America $-11,878.3 $1,691.1 $-16,014.4 GEM Equity - 1 yr Net Flow by quartile: Portfolio Allocation to Africa/ME TOP QUARTILE (HIGHEST ALLOCATION) $-3,538.2 2ND QUARTILE $-6,409.8 3RD QUARTILE TOP QUARTILE (HIGEST ALLOCATION) $-11,422.4 BOTTOM QUARTILE $-5,146.7 $-19,788.0 2ND QUARTILE $-25,861.8 3RD QUARTILE $264.7 BOTTOM QUARTILE CONCLUSIONS Metric Fees Quartile Range associated with the smallest 1 year net flow Quartile Range associated with the largest 1 year net flow 35 - 78bps 100 - 150bps .907 - 1 .737 - .817 3.53 - 4.88 4.88 - 6.37 15 - 58 94 - 180 2.13% - 2.60% 3.11% - 3.86% Africa/ME Allocation 11% - 17.6% 0% - 6.7% China Allocation 19.5% - 24% 0% - 12.4% 48.1% - 60.1% 43.3% - 48.1% Eastern Europe Allocation 2.7% - 5.2% 7% - 12.6% Latin America Allocation 0% - 10.9% 16.8% - 25.8% Active Share 3-year Tracking Error (MSCI EM) Number of Holdings Dividend Yield Far East ex China Allocation Global Active EM Equity – Flow Trends EM Equity Net Flows - Last 3 years EM Equity Net Flows- Last 6 months +$685m -$1,141m +$14,122m -$3,356m EUROPE EX-UK: PRE BREXIT VS. POST BREXIT INSTITUTIONAL SENTIMENT TOTAL NUMBER OF REVIEWS PER PRODUCT – PRIMARY UNIVERSE US Corporate Fixed Income Emerging MktsMkts All Cap Core Emerging All Cap CoreEquity Equity 155 US High Yield Fixed Income 1 month Pre Brexit Global High Yield Fixed Income Emerging Mkts Fixed Income - Local Currency Global Large Cap Core Equity Euro High Yield Fixed Income Fundamental - Long/Short Equity Global Small Cap Equity Global All Cap Core Equity 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 TOTAL NUMBER OF REVIEWS PER PRODUCT –PRIMARY UNIVERSE Mkts All Cap Core Equity EmergingEmerging Mkts All Cap Core Equity 320 Global GlobalREIT REIT 174 Emerging Mkts Fixed Income - Hard Currency Emerging Mkts Fixed Income - Blended Currency 1 month Post Brexit US REIT Global All Cap Core Equity Global Large Cap Core Equity Emerging Mkts All Cap Value Equity Emerging Mkts Large Cap Core Equity US High Yield Fixed Income 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Key Takeaway: Q3 Net EM Active Equity up $6.7BN Gross Flows – Total AUM $25K $20K $15K $10K $5K $0K $-5K $-10K $-15K $-20K $-25K $-30K $-35K Q3-2015 Inflows Outflows Net Flows CURRENCY TRENDS Influence on Global Allocations DEPRECIATION DXY GBP/USD EUR/USD USD/JPY How do regional asset owners tend to react to currency events? • Quickly reduce risk • Reposition currency exposure • Seek alternative, attractive sources of yield JAPANESE INVESTORS WHEN YEN DECLINED 5% $35,000 -5% $20,000 -15% $5,000 -25% -$10,000 2. Reposition currency exposure 3. Seek attractive, alternative source of yield -35% Mar-11 USD/JPY Feb-12 Jan-13 US Corp Fixed Income Dec-13 Nov-14 Oct-15 Emerging Markets Fixed Income -$25,000 Sep-16 Europe Fixed Income USD millions 1. Quickly reduce risk EUROPEAN INVESTORS 5% $55,000 WHEN EURO DECLINED 0% $45,000 1. Quickly reduce risk USD millions -5% $35,000 -10% $25,000 -15% $15,000 -20% $5,000 -$5,000 Mar-11 Feb-12 Jan-13 EM Fixed Income Dec-13 US High Yield Nov-14 Oct-15 EUR/USD (right) -25% Sep-16 IN E U R O P E AENU IRNOVPEESATNO R SV E S T O R S $30,000 $42,000 WHEN EURO DECLINED $26,000 USD millions 2. Accelerate allocations to home currency markets $20,000 $10,000 $10,000 $0 -$6,000 -$22,000 -$10,000 Mar-11 Dec-11 Sep-12 Jun-13 Mar-14 Dec-14 Sep-15 EUR/USD Europe Fixed Income Euro High Yield (right) Jun-16 EUROPEAN INVESTORS 105 $2,250 WHEN EURO DECLINED $1,750 USD millions 3. Seek alternative, attractive sources of yield 100 95 $1,250 90 $750 85 $250 80 -$250 -$750 Mar-11 Feb-12 Global REIT Jan-13 Dec-13 EUR/USD (scaled, right) Nov-14 Oct-15 75 Sep-16 Global REIT Views (scaled, right) UK INVESTORS $10,000 $10,000 $8,000 WHEN GBP/USD DECLINED $6,000 USD millions 1. Quickly reduce risk -$10,000 -$30,000 $4,000 -$50,000 $2,000 $0 -$70,000 -$2,000 -$90,000 EM Fixed Income US HY (right) GBP/USD GBP/EUR UK INVESTORS 25% $25,000 BUT WHEN GBP/EUR DECLINED NEXT… 2. Allocate to home currency/cash 3. Seek alternative source of yield (not quite there yet) $5,000 USD millions 1. Further reduce external exposure 20% 15% 10% -$15,000 5% -$35,000 0% -$55,000 -5% Global Fixed Income UK + US Enhanced Cash UK Fixed Income GBP/EUR NON-US EQUITY – GLOBAL INVESTORS $50,000 $140,000 PASSIVE. QUANTITATIVE. $40,000 $100,000 $30,000 $20,000 $60,000 $10,000 $20,000 USD millions • U.S., Japan, Canada to quant after USD appreciation USD millions • International, not U.S. $0 -$20,000 -$10,000 Passive - US (left) Quant - US Quant Canada Quant - Japan Quant - Europe ex-UK NON-US EQUITY – GLOBAL INVESTORS $100,000 PASSIVE. QUANTITATIVE. USD millions -$300,000 -$700,000 -$1,100,000 -$1,500,000 Passive - US (left) Quant - US Quant - Europe ex-UK Quant Canada Quant - Japan Active - All Citi Global Investor Sales November 2016 The Shift from Diversified Asset Class to Factor-Driven Index Portfolios Reshapes Active Management & Wealth Distribution Overview of Key Findings from the 2016 Citi Industry Evolution Survey Citi Business Advisory Services Sam LaNasa, 212-723-9078 [email protected] For Institutional Investors Only 5 MAJOR TRENDS DRIVING THE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INDUSTRY Each of these drivers is contributing to a foundational shift in how investors view portfolio construction. All are helping to promote increased use of passive products. Low Return Environment Reduced Bank Liquidity Improved Portfolio Risk Analytics Increased Demand for Low Cost Investment Funds Benefit of Holding Indexes Over Individual Securities Better Insight Into the Factors that Make Up Returns Disruptive Impact of Emerging Technologies Growth in Retirees & SelfDirected Investing Democratization Of Quantitative Risk & Portfolio Construction Frameworks Use of Robo-Advisory to Support Fiduciary Role & Avoid Underperformance Impact Confluence of these Factors Moving the Industry to the Tipping Point for Passive Investing MACRO INVESTING ENVIRONMENT LIMITS RETURNS 1. Low Return Environment Policy rates plummeted and correlations across and within asset classes increased in the wake of the GFC making yield scarcer and diversification harder. Interest Rate Trends in the Period Pre- & Post-GFC Actions stemming from the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) either created or exaggerated the following challenges to effective portfolio management: • Falling yields compressed the return environment. • Diminished independence between yields of the same asset class across countries, and also between different asset classes in the same country • Increasing correlations that were already evident pre-GFC accelerated making it harder to diversify the portfolio Correlation Between U.S. Equities & Bonds Source: Bloomberg, Citi Business Advisory Services FOCUS ON MANAGEMENT FEES INTENSIFIES 1. Low Return Environment Fees assume a much higher level of importance when the absolute level of available returns is low, and investors become much more sensitive to their impact. • Irrespective of the prevailing yield environment, when fees are fixed, the amount of portfolio returns retained by the investor erodes when returns fall. Effect of Fees On Portfolio Returns Over 30 Years: $100,000 Initial Investment 20% 87,996 80,236 54,548 71,239 60,815 30% INITIAL INVESTMENT 63,546 40% 73,970 48,746 34,785 50% 86,038 60% 100,000 18,645 116,140 Percentage of total return 275,886 INITIAL INVESTMENT 70% 46,788 20% Capital 156,308 251,058 222,437 Fees 181,136 30% 209,757 40% 189,468 107,854 50% 80% 242,726 60% 151,515 70% 90% 280,679 Percentage of total return 80% 1% Real Growth Rate 100% 324,340 90% 374,532 100% 57,662 5% Real Growth Rate 10% 10% 0% 0% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% Fees 3.50% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% Fees Gross Return: $432,194 Fees Paid: $189,468 (44%) Gross Return: $134,785 Fees Paid: $60,815 (45%) Net Return: $242,726 (56%) Net Return: $73,970 (55%) Source: Bloomberg. Returns based on Citi Broad Investment Grade Index and S&P500 3.50% Fees Capital LIQUIDITY CONCERNS IMPACT TRADING DECISIONS 2. Reduced Bank Liquidity Post-GFC capital requirements for banks have resulted in much less liquid markets, driving investors to change how they obtain exposures from individual securities towards index products. Tradable Securities Held on U.S. Consumer Bank Balance Sheets (Excluding Loans) • Basel III capital requirements resulted in a significant reduction in banks’ balance sheets post-GFC • Reduced capacity and appetite to take on and warehouse risk from the sell-side has made markets more difficult to trade • Survey participants noted that these challenges are discouraging many investors from holding individual securities and instead prompting them to look at replacing those exposures with indexes S&P 500: Volume Comparisons 5 Most Actively Traded Stocks 493 400 -46% 300 268 200 100 Volume (millions of shares) 1.5 500 Volume (millions of shares) 5 Least Actively Traded Stocks 1.461 -34% 1 0.958 0.5 0 0 2011 2016 2011 2016 Sources: Tradable Securities from the Federal Reserve Board of New York, Quarterly Trends for Consolidated U.S. Banking Organizations Q1 2016, http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/banking_researc/quarterly_trends.html ;Source for S&P 500 Volume charts, Bloomberg . BETTER INSIGHT INTO PORTFOLIO RISK & RETURN FACTORS 3. Improved Risk Analytics With greater transparency into their investment managers’ position holdings in the years postGFC, institutional investors are now better at grouping & understanding their portfolio level risks. Risk Factors Running Across Asset Classes Real Assets Source: Citi Business Advisory Services based on inputs from Callan Associates Inflation Sensitivity Absolute Return Credit Risk: Ability to Repay Bonds Equity Risk: Ability to Generate Earnings on Cash ASSET CLASSES Equities Interest Rate Sensitivity RETURN DRIVERS An enhanced ability to view, slice and dice their portfolio level risks has led institutional investors to the following realizations: • Each asset in a portfolio is composed of a complex set of risk factors • Risks run across asset classes • Equities, bonds and alternative allocations (absolute return and real assets) share many of the same risk exposures DEMOCRATIZED ACCESS TO QUANTITATIVE FRAMEWORKS 4. Impact of Emerging Technologies Increased processing speed and real-time analysis of vast pools of data are democratizing access to quantitative frameworks that were once only the domain of specialized investment firms. “Today, your cell phone has more computer power than all of NASA back in 1969 when it placed two men on the moon.” Dr. Michio Kaku, futurist and co-founder of String Theory. Actionable Risk Insights Portfolio dissection and risk modelling tools provide insights to identify the factor exposures that make up portfolio holdings and manage those exposures in a timeframe that results in meaningful impacts Dynamic Index & Factor Portfolios Improved processing power and velocity enables the data crunching required to dynamically reweight indices or construct factor portfolios in a cost-effective and timely manner Falling Cost of Memory Targeted Portfolio Construction Once solely the domain of professional wealth advisors, new robo-advisory modelling tools can assess an investor’s risk tolerance and return targets in order to construct a well diversified investment portfolio available to individual investors via the internet and mobile devices Sources: Falling Cost of Memory Chart from “Let’s Talk Data Blog” , Phillip Johnson, http://letstalkdata.com/2014/04/falling-cost-of-memory-1957-to-present/ Quote: “A Modern Smartphone or a Vintage Supercomputer: Which is More Powerful?”, June 14, 2014, http://www.phonearena.com/news/A-modern-smartphone-or-a-vintage-supercomputer-which-is-more-powerful_id57149 MASSIVE INCREASE IN LONG-LIVING RETIREES 5. Retirees & Self-Directed Investing The population is ageing and living longer. Baby boomers have longer retirements to fund than previous generations. Their children & grandchildren will have to wait longer to inherit what is left. Changing World Demographics: 2015 vs. 2030 • By 2030, 16.9% (1.4 billion people) of the world’s projected population (8.3 billion) will be aged 60+ • 45% of the expected population increase will be individuals age 60 or over • The life expectancy of those retirees also continues to rise Source: Demographic chart, U.S. Census Bureau, http://www.census.gov/population/international/data/idb/informationGateway.php Years of Retirement: Global Health & Aging Report, National Institute on Aging, U.S. Health & Human Services, https://www.nia.nih.gov/research/publication/global-health-and-aging/note-about-data-behind-report HIGH COSTS CAUSE ACTIVELY MANAGED FUNDS TO UNDERPERFORM INDICES The value proposition that returns from active management offer sufficient outperformance to both cover costs and beat their relevant benchmark is challenged by the actual performance data. • Data on the relative performance of active managers versus their underlying indexes seems to support the efficient market theory -- few active managers were able to generate sufficient outperformance to both cover the costs of their funds and still outperform their benchmark SPIVA H1 2016 Scorecard: Percent of Time Indices Outperformed Active Managers Fund Category 1-Yr 3-Yr All Domestic U.S. Equity Funds 90.20% 87.41% 94.58% 87.47% Global Equity Funds 75.35% 76.96% 82.45% 81.19% Emerging Market Equity Funds 42.22% 77.42% 67.63% 81.94% Investment Grade Long Funds 94.39% 97.32% 98.41% 98.21% High Yield Funds 75.00% 80.47% 88.78% 96.62% Emerging Market Debt Funds 74.65% 88.89% 92.31% 81.82% 49% or less of Active Managers Underperformed the Index Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices, LLC https://us.spindices.com 50-79% of Active Managers Underperformed the Index 5-Yr 10-Yr 80%+ of Active Managers Underperformed the Index INVESTOR FLOWS MOVE OUT OF ACTIVE & INTO PASSIVE AUM in passive strategies represents a growing share of the global asset management industry and the rate of investor flows out of active and into passive is accelerating. Growth in Passive AUM & Passive as Percent of Total Industry AUM • Since January 2014 net inflows into Passive have been ~$1 Trillion, compared to net outflows of -$668 Billion from traditional Actively managed funds • YTD inflows into Passive have been $280 Billion and we are on track for a record setting year of ~$560 Billion Net New Investor Flows into Active & Passive Products net positive flows • YTD outflows from traditional Active are -$249 Billion, on track for a record outflow year of -$498 Billion. Source: AUM Chart: Citi Business Advisory Services estimates based on Global Asset Management 2016: Doubling Down on Data, The Boston Consulting Group, https://www.bcgperspectives.com/content/articles/financial-institutions-global-asset-management-2016-doubling-down-on-data/ ; Flows: Citi Business Advisory Services based on data from eVestment, Preqin, HFR, Strategic Insight, BlackRock ETP report, IMA, OECD, Towers Watson, P&I Lipper ETF GROWTH BEGINS TO OUTPACE GAINS IN OTHER PASSIVE PRODUCTS The dramatic growth in ETFs is coming not only at the direct expense of actively managed funds, but is even outstripping growth of index mutual funds and other passive products. Cumulative Flows into U.S. Domestic Equity Funds: Monthly 2007-2015 Growth of ETFs • From 2007 to 2011, the number of ETFs in the market place nearly tripled from 1,315 to 3,608 while assets nearly doubled, rising from $825B to $1.5T. • Between 2007 and 2015, investors pulled $835B from actively managed U.S. equity mutual funds & put $1.2T in U.S. equity passive funds • Growth since 2011 has continued apace. By June 2016, there were 5,169 ETFs and a record $3.1T AUM. • U.S. equity index ETF AUM rose from $573B (43% of U.S. passive) to $1.76T (49%) between 2007 and 2015 Source: ETF Growth: Citi Business Advisory Services analysis based on proprietary data subscription to Strategic Insight SimFund database. U.S. Flows: Note: Equity mutual fund flows include net new cash flow and reinvested dividends. Data excludes mutual funds that invest primarily in other mutual funds. Source: ICI, 2016 Fact Book, www.ICI.org PASSIVE PRODUCT INNOVATION DRIVES ADOPTION ETFs overcome the disadvantages of SMAs and mutual fund wrappers and represent a significant step forward in making a wide variety of index exposures affordable and liquid. Source: Citi Business Advisory Services PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION MOVING TOWARD SET OF DIVERSIFIED FACTOR EXPOSURES The growing numbers and types of index trading products are making it easier to look through asset classes as an organizing principle for the portfolio to factors as a new diversification option. Current State Portfolio Construction • Today, the average institutional portfolio can be abstracted into a matrix that combines the main asset classes (equities, bonds, alternatives) with different selection criteria (style, geography & macro sector/theme) • Many survey participants saw this use of asset classes as an allocation framework as being too coarse Future State Portfolio Construction • The range of index offerings - not only around smart beta and risk premia, but also style boxes and niche strategies - is pushing the industry towards a fundamental shift in how portfolios are constructed. • Easy to access, low cost, ETFs, often built around indices or risk factors, is expanding investors’ portfolio construction and beta capture choices. Source: Citi Business Advisory Services THE FACTOR CUBE AS THE EMERGING CORE PORTFOLIO BUILDING BLOCK The factor cube’s ability to provide a set of highly diversified beta exposures is likely to make this the core portfolio building block for all investors with most realizing that exposure via ETFs. Cost of Obtaining Returns Higher Foundational Building Block Low Broad Accessibility of Return Stream Limited Use of Factor-Cube in Future-State Portfolio Construction Diversified Index Exposure Retail HNW QIP Institution Investor Type • More technically advanced institutional investors are already using this factor cube approach. 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