Analysis of Respondents Mentioning “Carpetbagger”
UMass Amherst/WBZ Poll of NH Registered/Likely Voters
Field Dates:
Sample:
October 10 - October 15
400 Registered New Hampshire Voters
322 Likely Voters
Margin of Error: 6.0% for Registered Voters
6.6% for Likely Voters
YouGov interviewed 453 respondents who were then matched down to a sample of 400 to
produce the final dataset. The respondents were matched to a sampling frame on gender,
age, race, education, party identification, ideology, and political interest. The frame was
constructed by stratified sampling from the full 2010 American Community Survey (ACS)
sample with selection within strata by weighted sampling with replacements (using the
person weights on the public use file). Data on voter registration status and turnout were
matched to this frame using the November 2010 Current Population Survey. Data on
interest in politics and party identification were then matched to this frame from the 2007
Pew Religious Life Survey. The matched cases were weighted to the sampling frame using
propensity scores. The matched cases and the frame were combined and a logistic
regression was estimated for inclusion in the frame. The propensity score function included
age, gender, race/ethnicity, years of education, and ideology. The propensity scores were
grouped into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the frame and post-stratified
according to these deciles.
UMass Poll Directors
Brian F. Scha↵ner, Ph.D.
Raymond La Raja, Ph.D.
Tatishe Nteta, Ph.D.
Melinda Tarsi, Ph.D.
Cameron Roche
Director
scha↵[email protected]
Associate Director [email protected]
Associate Director [email protected]
Associate Director [email protected]
Assistant Director [email protected]
[email protected] - @UMassPoll - http://umass.edu/poll
1
What one word would you use to describe Scott Brown?
Top terms
Term(s)
Percentage Number
“Carpetbagger”
10%
48
“Carpetbagger” and related
14%
66
“Republican”
3%
11
“Moderate”
3%
11
“Independent”
3%
11
Note: Related terms include “opportunist,” “out of stater,” “transplant,” “new comer,”
and “Massachusetts.”
Comparing Respondents Mentioning “Carpetbagger” to Others
Did not mention
Mentioned
Category
“Carpetbagger” “Carpetbagger”
Intends to vote for Brown
45%
9%
Intends to vote for Shaheen
43%
81%
Democrat
Independent
Republican
29%
44%
26%
46%
51%
2%
Approves of Shaheen
Disapproves of Shaheen
43%
48%
77%
23%
Favorable opinion of Brown
Unfavorable opinion of Brown
44%
46%
11%
88%
Brown better representing NH
Shaheen better representing NH
38%
41%
5%
79%
Prefer Clinton for 2016
47%
60%
Note: Based on 400 Registered Voters, except question about 2016, which was only asked
of 204 Registered Voters who said they would vote in Democratic Presidential Primary in
2016.
[email protected] - @UMassPoll - http://umass.edu/poll
2
What one word would you use to describe Scott Brown?
Carpetbagger
Gender
Male Female
17
12
18-29
6
Age
30-54
18
>55
14
<$40k
9
Income
$40-$100k
15
>$100k
24
HS or less
9
Education
Some Coll. Coll. Deg.
13
15
[email protected] - @UMassPoll - http://umass.edu/poll
Postgrad
23
Dem.
21
Party ID
Rep. Ind.
1
16
Lib.
23
Ideology
Mod. Cons.
18
5