energies Article Tidal Current Power Resources and Influence of Sea-Level Rise in the Coastal Waters of Kinmen Island, Taiwan Wei-Bo Chen 1, *, Hongey Chen 1,2 , Lee-Yaw Lin 1 and Yi-Chiang Yu 1 1 2 * National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction, New Taipei City 23143, Taiwan; [email protected] (H.C.); [email protected] (L.-Y.L.); [email protected] (Y.-C.Y.) Department of Geosciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei 10617, Taiwan Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: +886-2-8195-8612 Academic Editor: Aristides Kiprakis Received: 2 March 2017; Accepted: 4 May 2017; Published: 9 May 2017 Abstract: The tidal current power (TCP) resource, the impact of TCP extraction on hydrodynamics and the influence of sea-level rise (SLR) on TCP output in the coastal waters of Kinmen Island (Taiwan) are investigated using a state-of-the-art unstructured-grid depth-integrated numerical model. The model was driven by eight tidal constituents extracted from a global tidal prediction model and verified with time series of measured data for tide level and depth-averaged current. The simulations showed reasonable agreement with the observations; the skill index was in the excellent (0.71–0.93) range with regard to simulating tide level and currents. Model predictions indicated that the channel between Kinmen and Lieyu serves as an appropriate site for deploying the tidal turbines because of its higher tidal current and deeper water depth. The bottom friction approach was utilized to compute the average TCP over a spring-neap cycle (i.e., 15 days). Mean TCP reached its maximum to 45.51 kW for a coverage area of 0.036 km2 when an additional turbine friction coefficient (Ct ) increased to 0.08, and a cut-in speed of 0.5 m/s was used. The annual TCP output was estimated to be 1.08 MW. The impact of TCP extraction on the change in current is significant, with a maximum reduction rate of instant current exceeding 60%, and the extent of influence for the average current is 1.26 km in length and 0.30 km in width for the −0.05 m/s contour line. However, the impact of TCP extraction on the change in tide level is insignificant; the maximum change in amplitude is only 0.73 cm for the K2 tide. The influence of SLR on the TCP output in Kinmen waters was also estimated. Modeling assessments showed that due to SLR produces faster tidal current, the annual TCP output increased to 1.52 MW, 2.01 MW, 2.48 MW and 2.97 MW under the same cut-in speed and coverage area conditions when SLR 0.25 m, SLR 0.5 m, SLR 0.75 m and SLR 1.0 m were imposed on the model. Keywords: tidal current power; bottom friction approach; depth-integrated numerical model; sea-level rise; Kinmen Island 1. Introduction Global warming is expected to become more intense during this century due to the increasing emissions of greenhouse gases [1]. The relationship between the burning of fossil fuels and climate change is becoming more established. Therefore, renewable marine power resources, in the form of tides, waves, tidal currents and sea temperature (thermal energy), are potential candidates for possible energy sources [2,3]. The extraction of kinetic energy from tidal currents is a desirable form since it is predictable, regular, and has a high energy density with low greenhouse gas emissions [4]. Recently, many researchers have made great efforts to identify the most appropriate locations for the placement of tidal turbines and to assess how much tidal current power (TCP) can be extracted Energies 2017, 10, 652; doi:10.3390/en10050652 www.mdpi.com/journal/energies for the placement of tidal turbines and to assess how much tidal current power (TCP) can be extracted from a specific site [5–7]. Tidal currents are highly dependent on the geographic characteristics. For instance, a channel with varying cross-sections linking with two large water bodies is usually rich in TCP [5–9]. In addition, tidal currents can be accelerated in the area around a headland tip652 [10–15]. Energies 2017, 10, 2 of 15 Although tidal turbine operation has less negative influences on the marine environment, the hydrodynamics of a tidal system, such as tide level and current speed, might change due to the from a specific sitein[5–7]. Tidalsea currents are highly onan the geographic For extraction of TCP a certain or estuarine area dependent [2,16]. Thus, assessment ofcharacteristics. the environmental instance, a channel with varying cross-sections linking with two large water bodies is usually rich in impact should be conducted for a turbine farm before the deployment of tidal turbines. Although TCP [5–9]. In addition, tidal can be accelerated in the area around global warming may be farcurrents worse than thought and sea-level rise (SLR)aisheadland expectedtip to[10–15]. accelerate Although tidal turbine operation has less negative influences on the marine environment, the over the next century [17,18], few studies have concentrated on estimating the effect of SLR on TCP hydrodynamics of a tidal system, such as tide level and current speed, might change due to the output [19,20]. extraction of TCP inhydrodynamic a certain sea ormodel estuarine [2,16]. Thus, the environmental A numerical is aarea powerful tool an to assessment assess the of distribution of TCP impact should be conducted for a turbine farm before the deployment of tidal turbines. Although resources; a two-dimensional model (2D model) is required for shallow coastal waters [7,21,22], and global warming may model be far worse than thought and for sea-level rise (SLR) is expected to accelerate a three-dimensional (3D model) is required the deep sea [2,23,24]. In addition, two over the nextare century [17,18],incorporated few studies have on estimating the effect SLR on approaches commonly into concentrated numerical models to simulate the of effect of TCP TCP output [19,20]. extraction on hydrodynamics. The first method is the bottom friction approach, and a 2D model is A numerical hydrodynamic model a powerful assess theisdistribution of TCP resources; generally employed; the presence of is tidal turbinestool in to the water represented by adding an aadditional two-dimensional model (2D model) is required for shallow coastal waters [7,21,22], and a bottom friction in the model [25,26]. The second method is the momentum-sink three-dimensional model (3D model) is required for the deep sea [2,23,24]. In addition, two approaches approach, which usually adopts a 3D model; in this model, the momentum is diminished by adding are incorporated into numerical models to equations simulate the effect of TCP extraction on the commonly TCP extraction effect terms in the momentum [2,23,24]. However, these two hydrodynamics. The first method is the bottom friction approach, and a 2D model is generally approaches produce similar results [24]. employed; theIsland presence of tidalTaiwan), turbines located in the water is represented by adding Kinmen (Kinmen just off the southeastern coastanofadditional mainlandbottom China friction in the model [25,26]. The second method is the momentum-sink approach, which usually 2 (Figure 1a), covers an area of 153 km and has a population of 135,223 (2017). The Tashan Power adopts a 3D in this theon momentum is diminished by adding TCP extraction Plant (the redmodel; solid circle in model, Figure 1b) Kinmen Island is a fuel-fired power the plant built in 1967. effect terms in thegeneration momentumcapacity equations However, approaches produce similar The total power of [2,23,24]. the Tashan Power these Plant two is approximately 34 MW. It is results [24]. currently inadequate for meeting the power resource demand for the residents of Kinmen Island. Kinmen (Kinmen from Taiwan), locatedwaters just offofthe southeastern coast of considered mainland China Therefore, theIsland TCP extracted the coastal Kinmen Island has been as an 2 and has a population of 135,223 (2017). The Tashan Power (Figure 1a), covers an area of 153 km alternative power generation method because of its lower pollution. PlantThe (theobjectives red solid circle Figure 1b)ason Kinmen is a fuel-fired power plant built in 1967. The of thisinstudy are follows: (1)Island investigate the distribution of TCP resources and total power generation of the the Tashan Plant is approximately It isIsland; currently find an appropriate sitecapacity for deploying tidalPower turbines in the coastal waters34 of MW. Kinmen (2) inadequate for meeting the power resource demand for the residents of Kinmen Island. Therefore, the calculate maximum mean TCP output over a spring-neap cycle using a high-resolution TCP extracted fromhydrodynamic the coastal waters of Kinmen has been as an two-dimensional model for theIsland turbine site; considered (3) evaluate thealternative impact ofpower TCP generation method because of its lower pollution. extraction on the tide level and tidal current; and (4) assess the influence of SLR on TCP output. Figure 1. Locations of: (a) the study area; and (b) tide level and current stations. The cyan area Figure 1. Locations of: (a) the study area; and (b) tide level and current stations. The cyan area represents ocean, while white areas are land. represents ocean, while white areas are land. 2. Materials and Methods The objectives of this study are as follows: (1) investigate the distribution of TCP resources and find an site Model for deploying the tidal turbines in the coastal waters of Kinmen Island; (2) calculate 2.1.appropriate Hydrodynamic maximum mean TCP output over a spring-neap cycle using a high-resolution two-dimensional hydrodynamic model for the turbine site; (3) evaluate the impact of TCP extraction on the tide level and tidal current; and (4) assess the influence of SLR on TCP output. Energies 2017, 10, 652 3 of 15 2. Materials and Methods 2.1. Hydrodynamic Model A state-of-the-art unstructured-grid hydrodynamic model called Semi-implicit Cross-scale Hydroscience Integrated System Model (SCHISM), has been used to simulate tide levels and tidal currents in the coastal waters of Kinmen Island. SCHISM is a modeling system that is a derivative product of the original SELFE model [27], with many enhancements and upgrades, including a new extension to the large-scale eddying regime and a seamless cross-scale capability from the creek to ocean scale [28]. Similar to the SELFE model, SCHISM is based on an unstructured grid and is designed for seamless simulation of three-dimensional baroclinic circulation across creek-lakeriver-estuary-shelf-ocean scales. A highly efficient, parallel computing, robust and accurate semi-implicit finite-element/finite-volume method with an Eulerian-Lagrangian algorithm is implemented in the SCHISM model to solve Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations for transport of heat, salt and tracers. The wetting and drying scheme is naturally incorporated into the model for inundation studies. Due to their highly flexible frameworks, the SELFE and SCHISM models have been widely used to solve cross-scale problems: general circulation [29], storm surges [30], tsunami hazards [31], water quality [32], oil spills [33], sediment transport [34,35], biogeochemistry [36,37], and assessment of tidal stream energy resources [9,38]. A two-dimensional version of SCHISM, SCHISM-2D, is employed in this study since Kinmen Island is surrounded by shallow coastal waters (as shown in Figure 2a). The governing equations of the SCHISM-2D model with hydrostatic form and Boussinesq approximation in the Cartesian coordinate system are given as follows: ∂η ∂uH ∂vH + + =0 ∂t ∂x ∂y Du ∂ PA τsx − τbx = fv − g(η − αψ̂) + + Dt ∂x ρ ρH τsy − τby Dv ∂ P = −fu − g(η − αψ̂) + A + Dt ∂y ρ ρH (1) (2) (3) where η ( x, y, t) is the free-surface elevation; u( x, y, t) and v( x, y, t) are the depth-averaged velocity in the x, y direction, respectively; f is the Coriolis factor; g is the acceleration due to gravity; ψ̂ is the earth’s tidal potential; α is the effective earth elasticity factor; ρ is the density of water; PA ( x, y, t) is the atmospheric pressure at the free surface; τsx and τsy refer to the wind shear stress in the x, y direction, respectively; τbx and τby are the bottom shear stress in the x, y direction, respectively; and H = η + h, where h( x, y) is the bathymetric depth. The formulas of the bottom shear stress are as follows: τbx = ρ(Cd + Ct ) p u2 + v2 u (4a) τby = ρ(Cd + Ct ) p u2 + v2 v (4b) where Cd is the bottom drag coefficient, which is determined through model validation. Ct is an additional bottom friction coefficient introduced by tidal turbine. Ct is equal to zero when turbine is absent; while is greater than zero when turbine is present. Energies 2017, 10, 652 4 of 15 Energies 2017, 10, 652 4 of 15 Figure 2. (a) Bathymetry; and (b) the unstructured grid of the computational domain. Figure 2. (a) Bathymetry; and (b) the unstructured grid of the computational domain. 2.2. Calculation of Tidal Current Power 2.2. Calculation of Tidal Current Power The extractable TCP over a tidal cycle (spring-neap cycle) for a turbine can usually be The extractable TCP over a tidal cycle (spring-neap cycle) for a turbine can usually be estimated estimated as follows: as follows: 11 2 23 23/2 P =P = MρC e (e (uu 2 + M ρeCAe A + vv2 ) ) (5)(5) 22 where P is the tidal power extraction rate in watts; M is the number of turbines corresponding to where P is the tidal power extraction rate in watts; M is the number of turbines corresponding to the maximum average TCP output; Ce is the turbine thrust coefficient; and Ae is the swept area the maximum average TCP output; C e is the turbine thrust coefficient; and Ae is the swept area of the turbine. The over-bar above velocity term indicates the time average over a spring-neap of the turbine. The over-bar above velocity term indicates the time average over a spring-neap cycle. cycle. Although Equation (5) has widely been used, the effects of additional bottom friction Although Equation (5) has widely been used, the effects of additional bottom friction induced by induced by turbine deployment on hydrodynamics cannot be appropriately represented. Garrett turbine deployment on hydrodynamics cannot be appropriately represented. Garrett and Cummins and Cummins [5] and Bryden and Couch [39] proposed that an additional drag term on the flow [5] and Bryden and Couch [39] proposed that an additional drag term on the flow will arise from the will arise from the deployment of turbines. The tidal current power output (Pt ) can be evaluated deployment of turbines. The tidal current power output ( Pt ) can be evaluated considering the considering the turbine-induced additional bottom friction coefficient (Ct ) using the bottom friction turbine-induced additional bottom friction coefficient ( Ct ) using the bottom friction approach approach [9,19,21,25,40]: Ct [9,19,21,25,40]: (6) Pt = P Ct + Cd Ct Pt =P 3/2 P = ρ(Cd + CtC )(t u+2C+d v2 ) At where At is the area covered by the tidal turbine field; 2u and v are obtained from SCHISM-2D. 2 32 P = ρ ( Cd + Ct ) ( u + v ) At (6) (7) (7) 2.3. Model Configuration where At is the area covered by the tidal turbine field; u and v are obtained from SCHISM-2D. The computational domain covers the entire Kinmen Islands group, including Kinmen and Lieyu, which are located just off the southeastern coast of mainland China and are surrounded by the Taiwan 2.3. Model Configuration Strait (Figure 1a). A global gridded bathymetry dataset with a resolution of 30 arc-second obtained computational domain covers entire(GEBCO) Kinmen was Islands Kinmen and from The the General Bathymetric Chart of thethe Oceans usedgroup, in this including study. It was generated Lieyu, which are located just off ship the southeastern coastwith of mainland China and aresounding surrounded by by combining quality-controlled depth soundings interpolation between points the Taiwan Strait (Figure 1a). A global gridded bathymetry with aof resolution of 30 guided by satellite-derived gravity data. The modeling domaindataset is composed 197,020 triangle arc-second obtained from the General Bathymetric the Oceanswas (GEBCO) was this mesh grid cells and 100,714 nodes. Coarse mesh withChart 1000 of m resolution arranged to used open in ocean study. It was byStrait, combining depth soundings with interpolation boundaries in generated the Taiwan while quality-controlled fine mesh with 50ship m resolution was used around Kinmen between sounding points by satellite-derived gravitythe data. The bathymetry modeling domain is Island (Figure 2b). Once the guided unstructured grid was constructed, gridded data were composed ofto197,020 triangle gridSCHISM-2D cells and 100,714 nodes. Coarse mesh with 1000 of m interpolated each node (Figuremesh 2a). The model was driven by harmonic constants resolution arranged to open boundaries in the Taiwan Strait, while fine mesh with 50 m eight majorwas tidal constituents (Mocean , S , N , K , K , O , P , and Q ), which were extracted from the 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 resolution wastidal used around Kinmen 2b). Once unstructured gridofwas global inverse model, TPXO [41,42]. Island A time(Figure step of 60 s was set the to ensure the stability the constructed, the conditions gridded bathymetry data weremodel interpolated to free eachsurface node elevation (Figure 2a). The model. The initial for the hydrodynamic are the null and null SCHISM-2D model was driven by harmonic constantsare of not eight major tidal (M2, S2,The N2, velocity. Meteorological and hydrological conditions considered inconstituents the current study. K2, K1, O1, Pwere 1, and Q1),run which were extracted the global inverse tidal model,inTPXO [41,42]. A simulations only in barotropic mode,from i.e., density gradients are excluded the model. time step of 60 s was set to ensure the stability of the model. The initial conditions for the hydrodynamic model are the null free surface elevation and null velocity. Meteorological and Energies 2017, 10, 652 5 of 15 2.4. Model Performance Indicators Two criteria were used to evaluate the model performance for the simulation of tide level and the depth-averaged tidal current, which are the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and the skill [43]. It should be noted that the MAPE can only be used when there are no zero value among observations. The optimal value of the skill is 1, indicating perfect performance. A skill value ranging between 0.65 and 1.0 indicates excellent performance. Very good performance is in the range of 0.5–0.65; good performance is in the range of 0.2–0.5; and a skill value less than 0.2 expresses poor performance [44]: 1 N Oio − Ois MAPE = ∑ × 100 N i =1 Oio n (8) 2 ∑ |Ois − Oio | i =1 skill = 1 − n o o 2 ∑ Ois − O + Oio − O (9) i =1 where N is the total number of data points; Ois is the simulation value; Oio is the measured data; and o O is the mean value of the measured data. 3. Results 3.1. Model Validation for Tide Level and Tidal Currents The observational data provided by the Taiwan Central Weather Bureau were used to validate the hydrodynamic model for predicting tide level and tidal currents (the gauging station locations are shown in Figure 1b). The date was measured during the winter (from December 2016 to January 2017); this means that the observations are not affected by severe weather conditions (e.g., typhoon). Although the northeast monsoon is sometimes stronger in this area in winter, the effects of winter monsoon winds on tide level and depth-averaged tidal current are not significant. Because the Kinmen buoy is placed at a location with the water depth of 20–25 m. In addition, the unusual values such as −9999.0 were also filtered. The simulation period, a total of 29 days, was from 12 December 2016 to 9 January 2017. The first 14 days are designed to confirm that the model results will not be affected by the initial conditions. Figure 3 shows the model-data comparison for tide level at Suetao (Figure 3a) and Liaolowan (Figure 3b). Excellent agreement between the simulated and measured time series of tide level is observed at these two tidal stations. The model performance in the tidal simulations is illustrated in Table 1. The MAPE and skill values are 17.68% and 0.93 for Suetao and 15.41% and 0.93 for Liaolowan, respectively. Table 1. Statistical errors of the model-data difference for tide levels and currents. MAPE: mean absolute percentage error. Suetau Variables Tide level Current Liaolowan Kinmen Buoy MAPE (%) Skill MAPE (%) Skill MAPE (%) Skill 17.68 - 0.93 - 15.14 - 0.93 - 20.57 0.71 -: No data for comparison. The predictions of the depth-averaged tidal currents for the Kinmen buoy were compared with the measurements; the comparison results are presented in Figure 4. The results reveal that the hydrodynamic model faithfully reproduces the peaks and phases of the tidal current. Table 1 indicates that the MAPE is 20.57%, and the skill score of 0.71 indicates an excellent performance of the tidal current monsoon winds on tide level and depth-averaged tidal current are not significant. Because the Kinmen buoy is placed at a location with the water depth of 20–25 m. In addition, the unusual values such as −9999.0 were also filtered. The simulation period, a total of 29 days, was from 12 December 2016 to 9 January 2017. The first 14 days are designed to confirm that the model results will not be10, affected by the initial conditions. Figure 3 shows the model-data comparison for6 of tide Energies 2017, 652 15 level at Suetao (Figure 3a) and Liaolowan (Figure 3b). Excellent agreement between the simulated and measured time series of tide level is observed at these two tidal stations. The model simulations. bottom coefficient (Cd ) was determined 0.002 through model validation. The performanceThe in the tidal drag simulations is illustrated in Table 1. as The MAPE and skill values are 17.68% SCHISM-2D model can therefore be practically applied to the TCP calculations. and 0.93 for Suetao and 15.41% and 0.93 for Liaolowan, respectively. Energies 2017, 10, 652 6 of 15 Energies 2017, 10, 652 6 of 15 Figure 3. Mode-data comparison for tide level at: (a) Suetau; and (b) Liaolowan. The predictions of the depth-averaged tidal currents for the Kinmen buoy were compared with the measurements; the comparison results are presented in Figure 4. The results reveal that the hydrodynamic model faithfully reproduces the peaks and phases of the tidal current. Table 1 indicates that the MAPE is 20.57%, and the skill score of 0.71 indicates an excellent performance of the tidal current simulations. The bottom drag coefficient ( Cd ) was determined as 0.002 through model validation. The SCHISM-2D model can therefore be practically applied to the TCP Figure 3. Mode-data comparison for tide level at: (a) Suetau; and (b) Liaolowan. calculations. Figure 3. Mode-data comparison for tide level at: (a) Suetau; and (b) Liaolowan. The predictions of the depth-averaged tidal currents for the Kinmen buoy were compared with the measurements; the comparison results are presented in Figure 4. The results reveal that the hydrodynamic model faithfully reproduces the peaks and phases of the tidal current. Table 1 indicates that the MAPE is 20.57%, and the skill score of 0.71 indicates an excellent performance of the tidal current simulations. The bottom drag coefficient ( Cd ) was determined as 0.002 through model validation. The SCHISM-2D model can therefore be practically applied to the TCP calculations. Figure 4. Mode-data comparison forfor thethe depth-averaged current at Kinmen Buoy. Figure 4. Mode-data comparison depth-averaged current at Kinmen Buoy. Table 1. Statistical errors of the model-data difference for tide levels and currents. MAPE: mean The distribution of the average tidal current over a spring-neap cycle (i.e., 15 days) around Kinmen absolute percentage error. Island is shown in Figure 5a. A higher current is observed in a narrow channel between Kinmen and Suetau Liaolowan Kinmen Buoy Lieyu, with a maximum current exceeding 2.0 m/s. This suggests that the area is appropriate for the Variables MAPE (%) MAPE (%) MAPE (%) Skill Skill Skill deployment of tidal power turbines. Water depths in the range of 20–50 m are also a requirement, in leveltidal velocity 17.68 [4]. Therefore, 0.93 15.14 additionTide to high Figure 5b shows a 0.93 desirable site (gray box), with an area Current 20.57 0.71 2 2 of 35762.44Figure m (0.036 km ), depths greater than 20 m and average velocity of 0.43 m/s, for deploying 4. Mode-data comparison for data the depth-averaged -: No for comparison. current at Kinmen Buoy. the turbines. Tabledistribution 1. Statistical of errors the model-data difference tide levels and currents. MAPE: mean The the of average tidal current over for a spring-neap cycle (i.e., 15 days) around absolute percentage error. Kinmen Island is shown in Figure 5a. A higher current is observed in a narrow channel between Kinmen and Lieyu, with a Suetau maximum current exceeding 2.0 m/s. This suggests that the area is Liaolowan Kinmen Buoy Variables appropriate for the deployment turbines. depths in the range 20–50 m are MAPE (%) of tidal (%) Water MAPE (%) of Skill SkillpowerMAPE Skill also a requirement, tidal velocity site Tide level in addition 17.68 to high 0.93 15.14[4]. Therefore, 0.93 Figure 5b- shows a desirable Current 0.71 velocity (gray box), with an area of- 35762.44 m-2 (0.036 km2),- depths greater than 2020.57 m and average of 0.43 m/s, for deploying the turbines. -: No data for comparison. The distribution of the average tidal current over a spring-neap cycle (i.e., 15 days) around Kinmen Island is shown in Figure 5a. A higher current is observed in a narrow channel between Kinmen and Lieyu, with a maximum current exceeding 2.0 m/s. This suggests that the area is appropriate for the deployment of tidal power turbines. Water depths in the range of 20–50 m are also a requirement, in addition to high tidal velocity [4]. Therefore, Figure 5b shows a desirable site Energies 2017, 10, 652 7 of 15 Energies 2017, 10, 652 7 of 15 Energies 2017, 10, 652 7 of 15 Figure 5.5.(a) (a)Distribution Distribution average current a spring-neap cycle days) Kinmen around Figure of of thethe average current over over a spring-neap cycle (i.e., 15(i.e., days)15around Figure 5. (a) Distribution of the average current over a spring-neap cycle (i.e., 15 days) around Kinmen Island; and (b) turbine deployment site (gray box). Island; and (b) turbine deployment site (gray box). Kinmen Island; and (b) turbine deployment site (gray box). 3.2. Assessment Assessment of of Maximum Maximum Tidal Tidal Current Power Power 3.2. 3.2. Assessment of Maximum TidalCurrent Current Power According to a typical power curve, Robins et al. [45] assumed a cut-in velocity of 0.7 m/s and According to atotypical power [45] assumed assumeda acut-in cut-in velocity According a typical powercurve, curve,Robins Robins et et al. al. [45] velocity of of 0.70.7 m/sm/s and and rated velocity of 2.7 m/s in the evaluation of tidal current power. However, this was an idealized rated velocity of 2.7 m/s in the evaluation of tidal current power. However, this was an idealized rated velocity of 2.7 m/s in the evaluation of tidal current power. However, this was an idealized representation of the potential performance of a turbine [46]. To assess the maximum potential TCP representation of the potential [46].To Toassess assess the maximum potential representation of the potentialperformance performance of of a turbine turbine [46]. the maximum potential TCPTCP output in this study, the cut-in speed was therefore set to 0.5 m/s [47] and the rated velocity was not output in this study, cut-in speedwas wastherefore therefore set to 0.5 and thethe rated velocity waswas not not output in this study, thethe cut-in speed 0.5 m/s m/s[47] [47] and rated velocity specified because the average tidal currents did not exceed 2.0 m/s at the turbine site. specified because average tidalcurrents currentsdid did not not exceed exceed 2.0 atat thethe turbine site.site. specified because thethe average tidal 2.0m/s m/s turbine TheThe depth-averaged tidal currents were calculated bybySCHISM-2D. SCHISM-2D. TCP outputs depth-averaged tidal currents were calculated TCP outputs werewere The depth-averaged tidal currents were calculated by SCHISM-2D. TCP outputs were computed computed using Equations (6) and (7); coveredby bythe thetidal tidal turbine field ) was 35762.44 computed using Equations andcovered (7); the the area area covered ( At )( A was tm2 35762.44 using Equations (6) and (7); the(6) area by the tidal turbine field turbine (At ) wasfield 35762.44 (0.036 km2 ), 2 2 2 2 m (0.036 kmkm ), and the drag incrementally increased from to 0.24. m ), and theturbine turbine drag term term ( Ct )increased incrementally from 0.04 to 0.24. was Ct Cdwas Ct to and the(0.036 turbine drag term (Ct ) incrementally fromincreased 0.04 to 0.24. Ct 0.04 was added in added in Equations andthat (4b),the thisbottom means that thestress bottom shearbe stress would with be increased Equations (4a) and (4b), this (4a) means shear would increased increasing Cin added to to C d Equations (4a) and (4b), this means that the bottom shear stress would be increased d C , and consequently slow the horizontal velocity in the hydrodynamic model. Each simulation was with increasing , and consequently slow the horizontal velocity in the hydrodynamic model. t with increasing Ct ,Ctand consequently slow the horizontal velocity in the hydrodynamic model. carried out for each value of C . In this way, the average TCP output over a spring-neap cycle increased t out for each value of C . In this way, the average TCP output over a Each simulation was carried Each simulation was carried out for each value of Ct t . In this way, the average TCP output over a withspring-neap increasing C , resulting in a reduction of the average velocity. There is a limit to the available TCP t cycle increased with increasing Ct , resulting in a reduction of the average velocity. spring-neap with increasing resulting in athe reduction of the average velocity. Ct , but output as toocycle manyincreased turbines not only create drag also slow current and therefore reduce the There is a limit to the available TCP output as too many turbines not only create drag but also slow There is a limit to the available TCP output as too many turbines not only create drag but also slow TCP output [4,17]. The maximum average TCP output is estimated to be 45.51 kW when Ct = 0.08, the current and therefore reduce the TCP output [4,17]. The maximum average TCP output is 2 and the estimated current therefore reduce the TCP output [4,17].mThe maximum average TCPis output is cut-in speed and is m/s, kW turbine area is 35762.44 the average velocity 0.33 m/s to 0.5 be 45.51 whencoverage Ct = 0.08 , cut-in speed is 0.5 m/s, turbine coverage area is 35762.44 estimated to be 45.51 kW when , cut-in speed is 0.5 m/s, turbine coverage area is 35762.44 (as shown in Figure 6). This indicates that the annual TCP output was estimated to be 1.11 MW C = 0.08 t m2 and the average velocity is 0.33 m/s (as shown in Figure 6). This indicates that the annual TCP (45.51 kW × 365/15/1000 = 1.11 MW) theshown turbine deployment site. indicates The results at shown in Figure 6 m2 and the average velocity is 0.33 m/sat (as 6)./1000 This the output was estimated to be 1.11 MW ( 45.51 in the annual turbineTCP kWFigure × 365 /15 = 1.11 MW )that are similar to those of other studies for the calculations of TCP output using numerical models output was estimated to be shown 1.11 MW ( 45.51 ) at the turbine 365 /15to/1000 MW studies deployment site. The results in Figure 6 kW are ×similar those= 1.11 of other for the or theoretical methods [5,9,19,21]. deployment site. Theoutput results shown in Figure similar methods to those[5,9,19,21]. of other studies for the calculations of TCP using numerical models6 orare theoretical calculations of TCP output using numerical models or theoretical methods [5,9,19,21]. Figure 6. Average TCP and its corresponding average current over a spring-neap cycle (i.e., 15 days) Figure 6. Average TCP and its corresponding average current over a spring-neap cycle (i.e., 15 days) at at the turbine deployment site. the turbine deployment site. Figure 6. Average TCP and its corresponding average current over a spring-neap cycle (i.e., 15 days) at the turbine deployment site. Energies 2017, 10, 652 Energies 2017, 10, 652 8 of 15 8 of 15 3.3. Influence of Tidal Current Power Extraction on Hydrodynamics 3.3. Influence Influence of of Tidal TidalCurrent CurrentPower PowerExtraction Extractionon onHydrodynamics Hydrodynamics 3.3. TCP extraction may alter the hydrodynamics (e.g., tide level and currents) over an area where TCP extraction extraction may may alter the the hydrodynamics hydrodynamics (e.g., (e.g., tide level level and and currents) currents) over over an an area area where where TCP the turbines are deployed.alter To understand the impacts oftide turbine operation on tidal dynamics, time the turbines are deployed. To understand the impacts of turbine operation on tidal dynamics, time the turbines are deployed. Toofunderstand the currents impacts were of turbine operation tidal dynamics, time series and spatial differences tide level and compared for anonarea with and without series and and spatial spatial differences differences of of tide tide level level and and currents currents were were compared compared for for an an area areawith with andwithout without series turbines. Due to C produced the maximum mean TCP , Figure 7 depicts a tidaland water level t = 0.08 produced the maximum mean TCP, Figure 7 depicts a tidal water level turbines. Due to C = 0.08 t 0.08 produced the maximum mean TCP, Figure 7 depicts a tidal water level time turbines. Due to Ct = time series for Ct = 0 and Ct = 0.08 at the turbine site. The turbine-induced tide level change is time series the turbine site. The turbine-induced tidechange level change is series for Ct for = 0Cand Cand = 0.08 the at turbine site. The turbine-induced tide level is minor; Ct =at 0.08 t =0 t minor; the difference is difficult to distinguish in Figure 7. The spatial distribution of tide level the difference is difficultistodifficult distinguish in Figure 7.inThe spatial tide level differences is minor; the difference to distinguish Figure 7. distribution The spatial of distribution of tide level differences is shown in Figure 8a.difference The tide level difference atobtained each node was obtained fromlevel the shown in Figure 8a. The tide level at each node was from the average tide differences is shown in Figure 8a. The tide level difference at each node was obtained from the average tide level over a spring-neap cycle for minus that for Ct in . The differences in = 0.08 over a spring-neap Ct = 0.08 minus The differences average tide level t = 0. average tide level cycle over afor spring-neap cycle that for Cfor minus that for Ct ==0the differences in 0 . The Ct t =C0.08 the average and in the spatial distribution are negligible, between Ct =tide 0.08 level and Cbetween spatial distribution are negligible, although an enlargement of the C = 0.08 C = 0 t = 0 in the the average tide level between Ct t = 0.08 and Ct t = 0 in the spatial distribution are negligible, turbine site shown in Figure although anisenlargement of the8b. turbine site is shown in Figure 8b. although an enlargement of the turbine site is shown in Figure 8b. Figure 7. Comparison of the time series of tide level between Ct = 0.0 and Ct = 0.08 at the turbine Figure 7.7. Comparison Comparison of of the the time time series series of oftide tidelevel levelbetween betweenCC andCtC= at the the turbine turbine Figure 0.08 at t t== 0.0 and t = 0.08 deployment site. deployment site. deployment site. Figure 8. (a) Spatial distribution of tide level (average tide level over a spring-neap cycle) Figure8.8.(a)(a) Spatial distribution of tide (average level (average tide over a spring-neap cycle) Figure Spatial distribution of tide tide level overlevel a spring-neap cycle) differences differences between Kinmen waters; and (b) an enlarged view of Ct = 0.0 and Ct = level 0.08 around differences between and around Kinmen waters; and (b) an enlarged view Ctt ==0.0 Ct =Kinmen 0.08 between C = 0.0 and C 0.08 around waters; and (b) an enlarged view of the turbine site.of the turbinet site. the turbine site. a very reduction in the tidal Figure 9 demonstrates TCP extraction extractionproduced produced a noticeable very noticeable reduction incurrent. the tidal current. Figure 9a TCP extraction produced a very noticeable reduction in the tidal current. Figure 9 time series of the depth-averaged current for C = 0 and C = 0.08 at the turbine site. The maximum t current for t demonstrates a time series of the depth-averaged and at the turbine site. demonstrates a time series of the depth-averaged current for CCt t ==00 and CCt t ==0.08 at the turbine site. 0.08 waters; instant tidal current exceeded 1.1 m/s when the turbines are absent in the coastal it The maximum instant tidal current exceeded 1.1 m/s when the turbines are absent in however, the coastal The reduced maximum instant tidal current exceeded 1.1 m/s when the turbines are absentnoting in thethat coastal was to 68% due to the presence of tidal turbines (i.e., C = 0.08). It is worth the t waters; however, it was reduced to 68% due to the presence of tidal turbines (i.e., Ct = 0.08 ). It is waters; however, was reduced to 68%was due77% to the of tidalbetween turbinesCt(i.e., It is Ct = 0.08 decrease in the timeit average tidal current for presence the comparison = 0 and Ct =). 0.08 worth noting that the decrease in the time average tidal current was 77% for the comparison (as shown in Figure 6). decrease Figure 10a spatial tidal distribution tidal worth noting that the in exhibits the timetheaverage current difference was 77% of forthe theaverage comparison between Ct = 0 and Ct = 0.08 (as shown in Figure 6). Figure 10a exhibits the spatial distribution current cycle Ct = in 0.08 minus6).CtFigure = 0. The of the is 0.30 km betweenover and Ct = 0.08 (as for shown Figure 10aextent exhibits theinfluence spatial distribution Ct =a0spring-neap difference of 0.13 the average tidalfor current overm/s a spring-neap for km minus . The 0.08 in length and in width the −0.10 contour line,cycle and 1.26 length andCC 0.30 in t = 0 km difference of the km average tidal current over a spring-neap cycle for CCt t ==in minus . The 0.08 t =0 extent of the influence is 0.30 km in length and 0.13 km in width for the −0.10 m/s contour line, and extent of the influence is 0.30 km in length and 0.13 km in width for the −0.10 m/s contour line, and Energies 2017, 10, 652 Energies Energies 2017, 2017, 10, 10, 652 652 999 of of 15 of 15 15 1.26 1.26 km km in in length length and and 0.30 0.30 km km in in width width for for the the −0.05 −0.05 m/s m/s contour contour line line (as (as shown shown in in Figure Figure 10b). 10b). The The width for the − 0.05 m/s contour line (as shown in Figure 10b). The installment of turbines not only installment of turbines not only significantly retards the tidal current but also affects a certain area installment of turbines not only significantly retards the tidal current but also affects a certain area significantly retards the tidal current adjacent TCP site. adjacent to to the the TCP extraction extraction site. but also affects a certain area adjacent to the TCP extraction site. Figure 9. Comparison time series of the current between and at the turbine 0.0 = 0.08 Figure 9. 9. Comparison Comparison time time series series of ofthe thecurrent currentbetween betweenCt C andCC the turbine turbine t = C= 0.0 and Figure 0.08 at at the tCtt== 0.08 t =0.0 deployment site. deployment site. deployment site. Figure Figure 10. 10. (a) (a) Spatial Spatial distribution distribution of of current current (average (average current current over over aa spring-neap spring-neap cycle) cycle) differences differences Figure 10. (a) Spatial distributionaround of current (average current over a spring-neap cycle) differences between and Kinmen waters; and (b) an enlarged view of the turbine = 0.0 C = 0.08 between C and around Kinmen waters; and (b) an enlarged view of the turbine t t C = 0.0 Ct =0.08 0.08around Kinmen waters; and (b) an enlarged view of the turbine between Ct t= 0.0 and Ct = site. site. site. 3.4. Influence of Sea-Level Rise on Tidal Current Power Output 3.4. 3.4. Influence Influence of of Sea-Level Sea-Level Rise Rise on on Tidal Tidal Current Current Power Power Output Output According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5 report, the sea levels According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5 report, the Panel Change (IPCC) AR5 the sea sea couldAccording rise 0.26 mtotothe 0.54Intergovernmental m for RCP 2.6; 0.32 m toon 0.62Climate m for RCP 4.5; 0.33 m to 0.62report, m for RCP6.0; levels could rise 0.26 m to 0.54 m for RCP 2.6; 0.32 m to 0.62 m for RCP 4.5; 0.33 m to 0.62 m for levels could rise 0.26 0.54 mby for2100 RCP[48]. 2.6; 0.32 m to 0.62 for RCP 4.5;on 0.33 m to 0.62 m for and 0.45 m to 0.81 mm fortoRCP8.5 Therefore the m effects of SLR TCP output were RCP6.0; and 0.45 m to 0.81 m for RCP8.5 by 2100 [48]. Therefore the effects of SLR on TCP output RCP6.0; and 0.45 m to 0.81 m for RCP8.5 by 2100 [48]. Therefore the effects of SLR on TCP output assessed by conducting the scenario simulations for SLR 0.25 m, SLR 0.5 m, SLR 0.75 m and SLR 1.0 m. were assessed by conducting the simulations for SLR m, 0.5 SLR 0.75 and were assessedthat by the conducting the scenario scenario simulations forregion SLR 0.25 0.25 m, SLR SLR 0.5 m, m, 0.75 m m and and We assumed tidal dynamics outside of the study do not change. AllSLR boundary SLR 1.0 m. We assumed that the tidal dynamics outside of the study region do not change. All SLR 1.0 m. We assumed that the tidal dynamics outside of the study region do not change. bathymetry conditions are kept constant except for increasing the water depth by 0.25 m, 0.5 m, 0.75All m boundary and bathymetry conditions are kept constant except for increasing the water depth boundary and the bathymetry conditions are keptand constant except for increasing the water approach depth by by and 1.0 m over entire computational domain open boundaries. This straightforward 0.25 m, m, m m entire computational domain and This 0.25been m, 0.5 0.5 m, 0.75 0.75 m and andto1.0 1.0 m over over the the domain and open open boundaries. boundaries. This has widely adopted investigate the entire effectscomputational of SLR on coastal hydrodynamics and tidal energy straightforward approach has been widely adopted to investigate the effects of SLR on coastal straightforward approach has been widely adopted to investigate the effects of SLR on coastal resources [19,44,49,50]. TCP outputs were also calculated by Equations (6) and (7) with an incremental hydrodynamics and TCP 2 hydrodynamics and tidal tidal energy energy resources resources [19,44,49,50]. [19,44,49,50]. TCP outputs outputs were were also also calculated calculated by by C t , a cut-in speed of 0.5 m/s and At of 35762.44 m ; the depth-averaged tidal currents were obtained 2; the Equations (6) and (7) with an incremental , a cut-in speed of 0.5 m/s and of 3 5762.44 m 2 A C Equations (6) andof(7) with an incremental Ctt , a cut-in speed of 0.5 m/s and Att of 35762.44 m ; the from the outputs SCHISM-2D. depth-averaged tidal currents were from the depth-averaged tidal currents were obtained obtained fromcorresponding the outputs outputs of oftoSCHISM-2D. SCHISM-2D. Figure 11 illustrates the average TCP outputs different Ct values. The maximum Figure 11 illustrates the average TCP outputs corresponding to different values. Figure illustrates the average TCPkW, outputs corresponding to 121.94 different values. The average TCP11 output is evaluated to be 62.64 82.43 kW, 102.12 kW and kWCCfor SLR 0.25The m, t t maximum average TCP output evaluated to be 82.43 kW, and 121.94 kW SLR 0.5 m, 0.75 m and SLR 1.0 m.is sea level, the102.12 annualkW TCP output increased maximum average TCP output isCompared evaluatedto topresent-day be 62.64 62.64 kW, kW, 82.43 kW, 102.12 kW and 121.94 kW for for SLR 0.25 m, SLR 0.5 m, 0.75 m and SLR 1.0 m. Compared to present-day sea level, the annual TCP to 1.52 MW, 2.01 MW, 2.48 MW and 2.97 MW under the SLR 0.25 m, SLR 0.5 m, SLR 0.75 m and SLR SLR 0.25 m, SLR 0.5 m, 0.75 m and SLR 1.0 m. Compared to present-day sea level, the annual TCP output increased to 2.01 MW, 2.48 MW and MW the SLR m, SLR 0.5 1.0 m scenarios, respectively. This means TCP due the0.25 faster output increased to 1.52 1.52 MW, MW, 2.01 MW,that 2.48SLR MWproduces and 2.97 2.97higher MW under under theto SLR 0.25 m,tidal SLRcurrent 0.5 m, m, SLR 0.75 m and SLR 1.0 m scenarios, respectively. This means that SLR produces higher TCP due at the turbine site in the coastal waters of Kinmen Island (Figure 12). SLR 0.75 m and SLR 1.0 m scenarios, respectively. This means that SLR produces higher TCP due to to the the faster faster tidal tidal current current at at the the turbine turbine site site in in the the coastal coastal waters waters of of Kinmen Kinmen Island Island (Figure (Figure 12). 12). Energies 2017, 10, 652 Energies 2017, 10, 652 10 of 15 10 of 15 Energies 2017, 10, 652 11 of 15 According to the numerical experiments conducted in Section 3.4, the maximum average TCP was increased with SLR because a higher sea level produces faster tidal currents (as shown in Figure 12). The momentum equations in Equations (2) and (3) can be used to explain this phenomenon. The last term on the right-hand side of Equations (2) and (3) shows that the horizontal velocities, u( x, y, t ) and v( x, y, t ) , are proportional to the total water depth ( H = η + h ) when the wind shear stresses ( τ sx and τ sy ) are excluded in the model. In other words, deeper water depth (i.e., SLR) leads to faster tidal currents if the bottom drag coefficient remains constant. Lopes and Dias [53] estimated the impacts of SLR on tidal dynamics for the Ria de Aveiro lagoon in Portugal, using the ELCIRC 2D model. Chen and Liu [9] assessed the influences of SLR on tidal Figure 11. Average a spring-neap cycle (i.e., days) for present-day sea level, sea-level rise Figure 11. Average TCPTCP overover a spring-neap (i.e., 1515 days) for present-day level, sea-level rise energy output for the Taiwan Strait. The cycle same findings were also found insea their studies, suggesting (SLR) 0.25 m, SLR 0.5 m, SLR 0.75 m and SLR 1.0 m, and its corresponding C . t (SLR)SLR 0.25produces m, SLR 0.5faster m, SLR 0.75currents m and SLR 1.0consequently m, and its corresponding Ct . output. that tidal and increases TCP 4. Discussion and Future Work The effect of TCP extraction on the change in tide level is difficult to determine in the time series and spatial difference figures (Figures 7 and 8). To quantify TCP extraction impact on tide level change, harmonic analysis was conducted to extract the main eight tidal components for Ct = 0 (without TCP output) and Ct = 0.08 (with maximum mean TCP output) at the turbine site. Table 2 lists the amplitudes and phases of eight tidal constituents for Ct = 0 and Ct = 0.08 . The maximum changes in amplitude and phase caused by turbines are only 0.73 cm and 0.77° for the K2 tide, respectively. The change of tide level for TCP extraction is ignored in both qualitative and quantitative analyses. Yang and Wang [51] compared the tide level changes of a tidal channel with and without turbines. They found that TCP extraction had a minor influence on the tidal elevations. Defne et al. [2] assessed the effects of TCP extraction on water level for an estuarine area, they concluded that both the decrease in the maximum water level and the increase in the minimum are kept below 0.05 m. Chen et al. [38] estimated the influences of TCP extraction on water level for the Figure 12. Average tidal current over aapproach. spring-neapTheir cyclestudy (i.e., 15 days) found for present-day sea level, Taiwan Strait the momentum sink results that TCP extraction at Figure 12. using Average tidal current over a spring-neap cycle (i.e., 15 days) for present-day sea level, SLR SLR 0.25 m, SLR 0.5 m, SLR 0.75 m and SLR 1.0 m, and its corresponding Ct . a specific could significantly tidalitscurrent, but the 0.25 m,farm SLR 0.5 m, SLR 0.75 m and affect SLR 1.0the m, and corresponding Ct .change in tidal amplitude and tidal phase could be neglected. Plew and Stevens [52] also suggested that introducing turbines in Uehara etand al.Future [54] model to investigate tidal andthrough tide-dependent theDiscussion numerical model hasused only aa two-dimensional minor influence on the difference in water level the Tory 4. Work changes in the northwest European shelf seas over the last twenty thousand years. They adopted Channel. This phenomenon might be due to the water level simulations are mainly determined by The effect ofto TCP extraction on theof change inocean-tide tide level is difficult to determine in the time of series two approaches consider the effect future variability on the open boundary the the tide elevations specified at open boundaries. and spatial difference figures (Figures 7 and 8). To state; quantify extraction impact on tide level numerical model. One is fixed to the present theTCP other is variable according to achange, global harmonic analysis was conducted to extract the main eight tidal components for C = 0 (without paleotidal They found that of theeight M2 amplitude only increases byand 1.0 Ct m =(0.9–1.9 m) turbine in the west Table model. 2. Amplitudes and phases tidal constituents for Ct = 0.00 0.08 at tthe TCP output) and (with maximum output) at the turbinechanges site. Table 2 liststides the t = 0.08twenty of the Sea through thousand mean years. TCP Although more realistic in shelf siteCeltic yielded byC harmonic analysis. amplitudes and phases of eight tidal constituents for C = 0 and C = 0.08. The maximum changes in t t during ten thousand years can be obtained in this way, the variation of tidal amplitude might be o) Amplitude (m) Phase ( ◦ amplitude and phase turbines are onlyto0.73 cm and for the K tide, respectively. The Constituent small Tidal 100 years from caused now. It by would be sensible assume that0.77 the change of2 tidal amplitudes from Ct = 0.00 Ct = 0.08 Ct = 0.00 Ct = 0.08 change of tide level for TCP extraction is ignored in both qualitative and quantitative analyses. Yang 2017 to 2100 is ignorable. Therefore, we compared the TCP output between present-day sea level M2 2.4714 2.4678 114.5893 114.8391 and compared the tide level changes of a tidal channel and without turbines. They and Wang future [51] SLR boundary conditions in the model.with However, modeling assessment S2 using the same0.7518 0.7474 159.1727 159.7660 found thathydrodynamics TCP extractionmight had a minor influence the tidal projections elevations. of Defne et al. [2]variations assessed the of future be more faithful on if accurate for N2 0.5004 0.4987 97.1582 future tide97.4440 effects of TCP extraction on water level for an estuarine area, they concluded that both the decrease in model boundary available. 0.2227 138.5008 139.2686 K2 conditions are0.2300 the maximum water level and the increase in the minimum are kept below 0.05 m. Chen et al. [38] 0.5387 a series of 0.5422 165.6684 K1 Green [19] conducted Pelling and numerical experiments to assess the165.0175 SLR influence estimated theOinfluences TCPof extraction water level for Taiwan Strait using the momentum 1 0.3885 0.3878 124.8016 124.7191 on TCP output for the of Gulf Maine. Inontheir study, SLRthe was implemented according to two 1 Their study results 0.0765 0.0719 124.7396 125.4009 P sink approach. found that TCP extraction at a specific farm could significantly approaches. The first approach was to increase the water depth over the entire model domain and Q1current, 0.0644 0.0634 (referred 102.4989 affect tidal but on thethe change amplitude and tidal phase neglected. Plew allow the low-lying elements landintotidal be flooded to 102.3196 as the could ‘floodbe run’). The second method was the same as the first except that no area was allowed to be flooded (referred to as the ‘no-flood run’). They found that the no-flood run produced higher maximum power output than the flood run for the Minas Passage. This is because TCP became dissipated when new shallow-water areas were created in the flood run. The difference in maximum TCP output is only 8.7% between these two approaches for the Minas Passage. Ward et al. [49] used the flood run Energies 2017, 10, 652 11 of 15 and Stevens [52] also suggested that introducing turbines in the numerical model has only a minor influence on the difference in water level through the Tory Channel. This phenomenon might be due to the water level simulations are mainly determined by the tide elevations specified at open boundaries. Table 2. Amplitudes and phases of eight tidal constituents for Ct = 0.00 and Ct = 0.08 at the turbine site yielded by harmonic analysis. Phase (o ) Amplitude (m) Tidal Constituent M2 S2 N2 K2 K1 O1 P1 Q1 Ct = 0.00 Ct = 0.08 Ct = 0.00 Ct = 0.08 2.4714 0.7518 0.5004 0.2300 0.5387 0.3885 0.0765 0.0644 2.4678 0.7474 0.4987 0.2227 0.5422 0.3878 0.0719 0.0634 114.5893 159.1727 97.1582 138.5008 165.6684 124.8016 124.7396 102.3196 114.8391 159.7660 97.4440 139.2686 165.0175 124.7191 125.4009 102.4989 According to the numerical experiments conducted in Section 3.4, the maximum average TCP was increased with SLR because a higher sea level produces faster tidal currents (as shown in Figure 12). The momentum equations in Equations (2) and (3) can be used to explain this phenomenon. The last term on the right-hand side of Equations (2) and (3) shows that the horizontal velocities, u( x, y, t) and v( x, y, t), are proportional to the total water depth (H = η + h) when the wind shear stresses (τsx and τsy ) are excluded in the model. In other words, deeper water depth (i.e., SLR) leads to faster tidal currents if the bottom drag coefficient remains constant. Lopes and Dias [53] estimated the impacts of SLR on tidal dynamics for the Ria de Aveiro lagoon in Portugal, using the ELCIRC 2D model. Chen and Liu [9] assessed the influences of SLR on tidal energy output for the Taiwan Strait. The same findings were also found in their studies, suggesting that SLR produces faster tidal currents and consequently increases TCP output. Uehara et al. [54] used a two-dimensional model to investigate tidal and tide-dependent changes in the northwest European shelf seas over the last twenty thousand years. They adopted two approaches to consider the effect of future ocean-tide variability on the open boundary of the numerical model. One is fixed to the present state; the other is variable according to a global paleotidal model. They found that the M2 amplitude only increases by 1.0 m (0.9–1.9 m) in the west of the Celtic Sea through twenty thousand years. Although more realistic changes in shelf tides during ten thousand years can be obtained in this way, the variation of tidal amplitude might be small 100 years from now. It would be sensible to assume that the change of tidal amplitudes from 2017 to 2100 is ignorable. Therefore, we compared the TCP output between present-day sea level and future SLR using the same boundary conditions in the model. However, modeling assessment of future hydrodynamics might be more faithful if accurate projections of future tide variations for model boundary conditions are available. Pelling and Green [19] conducted a series of numerical experiments to assess the SLR influence on TCP output for the Gulf of Maine. In their study, SLR was implemented according to two approaches. The first approach was to increase the water depth over the entire model domain and allow low-lying elements on the land to be flooded (referred to as the ‘flood run’). The second method was the same as the first except that no area was allowed to be flooded (referred to as the ‘no-flood run’). They found that the no-flood run produced higher maximum power output than the flood run for the Minas Passage. This is because TCP became dissipated when new shallow-water areas were created in the flood run. The difference in maximum TCP output is only 8.7% between these two approaches for the Minas Passage. Ward et al. [49] used the flood run method to investigate the impact of SLR on tidal dynamics for the European shelf; they also suggested that different way to implement SLR in the model shown a significant effect on response of tide. Although the flood run approach is much more realistic than the no-flood run approach, we can only adopt the latter due to the scarcity of accurate Energies 2017, 10, 652 12 of 15 topography data and land-use data for Kinmen Island and Lieyu Island. In other words, we can suppose that an actual average maximum TCP might be 41.55 kW (45.51 × (1 − 0.087) = 41.55 kW) in the Kinmen coastal waters if the flood run were used. Due to the amount of TCP output is small and semi-diurnal intermittency of tidal current at the turbine deployment site in the Kinmen coastal waters; it might be possible to conduct storage into the supergrid [15,55]. Besides, Neill et al. [56] proposed that optimization of the TCP and finding the optimal site for parallel development for relative low number of arrays are import for large scale exploitation of TCP and should be conducted in the future work. In addition, Lewis et al. [57] found that the wave-current interaction could potentially alter tidal currents and should be included in hydrodynamic models in future studies. Using a combination of Equations (5) and (7) to obtain the number of turbines is too simple when maximum mean TCP output was given. Myers and Bahaj [58] and Mestres et al. [59] suggested that the separation between both rows is taken as 10 times the dimeter of the tidal turbine rotor and the inter-lateral turbine separation 2.5 times the diameter. The configuration of tidal turbine array should be carefully considered before the construction of tidal turbine farm; however this requires further examination, which is beyond the scope of this paper. 5. Conclusions The hydrodynamics in the coastal waters of Kinmen Island have been simulated using a state-of-the-art unstructured-grid depth-integrated numerical model, SCHISM-2D. The simulations were verified with tide level and depth-averaged tidal current measurements, showing a reasonable agreement with the observations. The validated model was then applied to evaluate TCP resources and appropriate sites for deploying tidal turbines around the coastal waters of Kinmen Island. A narrow channel between Kinmen and Lieyu was found to be a suitable area for turbine deployment because of its higher mean tidal current. The site has an area of 0.036 km2 , depth greater than 20 m and average velocity of 0.43 m/s, making it suitable as a tidal current turbine farm. The bottom friction approach was employed to calculate the mean TCP over a spring-neap cycle. The maximum average TCP output is estimated as 45.51 kW when the additional turbine friction coefficient Ct = 0.08, cut-in speed is 0.5 m/s and average velocity is 0.33 m/s. The impacts of TCP extraction on hydrodynamics were also estimated. The TCP extraction effect can be ignored for tide level but shows a significant reduction in tidal currents. We found that the installation of turbines not only retarded tidal currents but also affected a certain area near the TCP extraction site. Four SLR scenarios, SLR 0.25 m, SLR 0.5 m, SLR 0.75 m and SLR 1.0 m, were conducted to investigate the influence of SLR on TCP output. Compared to the present-day sea-level condition, the annual TCP output increased to 1.52 MW, 2.01 MW, 2.48 MW and 2.97 MW for SLR 0.25 m, SLR 0.5 m, SLR 0.75 m and SLR 1.0 m, respectively, due to the faster tidal current. Acceptable simulations of tidal dynamics for the coastal waters of Kinmen Island were accomplished in this study, however, there are still many uncertainties associated with tidal current simulations, and TCP calculation should be further considered in the future. Acknowledgments: This research was funded by the Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST), Taiwan, grant No. MOST 105-2625-M-865-002. The authors would like to thank the Central Weather Bureau, Taiwan, for providing the measurements, and Joseph Zhang of the Virginia Institute of Marine Science, College of William & Mary, for kindly sharing his experiences of using the numerical model. Author Contributions: Hongey Chen, Lee-Yaw Lin, Yi-Chiang Yu and Wei-Bo Chen conceived the study, and Wei-Bo Chen performed the model simulations. The final manuscript has been read and approved by all authors. Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest. References 1. Solomon, S.; Qin, D.; Manning, M.; Chen, Z.; Marquis, M.; Averyt, K.B.; Tignor, M.; Miller, H.L. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK, 2007. 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