4th IASME/WSEAS International Conference on ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT, ECOSYSTEMS and SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT (EEESD'08)
Algarve, Portugal, June 11-13, 2008
Geographical Relations Dynamics (4)
- Haptic Megalopolis Minoru Ueda
York Institute of Technology
West-Osuga, Narita, Japan
[email protected]
Abstract:- The London Climate Change Agency has started a bold experiment to reduce
London’s Carbon dioxide emission by 60 perecent before 2025. Their measures are conventional energy saving technology and distributed small scale power generation system. Alan
Jones, the head of the Agency, claims that more than half of the world population live in
urban areas and CO2 emission out of cities accounts for 75 percent of the total world CO2
emission.
In this paper, the author tries to find the relationship between urabanization and GHG emission.
Using ”Geographical Relations Dynamics” model, the author foresees outgrowing megalopolises in the world and tries to figure out any feasible trend follow approach against the
global warming. The author proposes a new type of urban planning concept ”haptic megalopolis” in the 21th century, opposite to Le Corbusier’s international style in the 20th century.
Keywords:- London’s challenge, world urbanization, megalopolis
1
London’s challenge toward
carbon democracy
1.1
Action plan of the London
Climate Change Agency
The European Union has lead the materialization of
the Kyoto Protocol, while United State and other
countries are hesitating their commitments. Among
EU members, British goverment has announced the
plan to decrease her carbon dioxide emmision by 60
percent before 2050. Surprisingly, London municipality goverment has released more challenging action
plan to reduce her CO2 emission by 60 percent before
2025 (since June 2007). The mayor assigned Alan
Jones as the head of the London Climate Change
Agency[1]. Jones made a great success to reduce the
GHG emission by 75 percent at Walking city with
100,000 population, located 20 Km from London, so
that the mayor of London expects that Jone could
make another great success here.
1.2
Alan Jones’ basic strategy
The basic measures taken by the London Climate
Change Agency are:
• discourage the automoble use: Assigning a conISBN: 978-960-6766-71-8
429
gestion zone charge will reduce car entry into the
central business district but no charge for electric
car. (British govenment has already introduced
a carbon tax system)
• promote a distributed small power generation
sytem: currently, most of power plants providing electricity to the larger London metropolitan area are located several hundreds kilometers
away so that the energy loss over high-voltage
cable transmission is almost 50 percent of the
original generated electricity. Instead, they are
going to build many solor and wind power generators and bio-mass power plants within London.
They expect that localized power generation system can produce almost 25 percent of London’s
energy need and can reduce 20 percent of CO2
emision.
• promote a energy-saving housing: An ecoconcierge visits individual household and measures the degree of energy use and advices how
to use insulator and so on.
Those measures above belong to the conventional
technology categorized to alternative renewable energy and conservation technology being adovocated
by E.F.Schumacher and A.B.Lovins since 1970’s (the
first energy crisis). Jones’ plan does not employ any
ISSN: 1790-5095
4th IASME/WSEAS International Conference on ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT, ECOSYSTEMS and SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT (EEESD'08)
Algarve, Portugal, June 11-13, 2008
Table 1: Regional CO2 emission in 2030 (unit = million tons )
Polar
Canada
1
USA
8,351
C Ame
rica
1,413
Amazon
703
Patago
nia
425
North
EU
765
South
EU
6,462
Sahara
E
Rusia
922
Caspi
an
1,981
Arab
701
Congo
2,371
Cent.
Siber.
51
C
Asia
229
India
SEAs
3,284
East
Siber.
51
N
China
4,153
S
China
5,943
181
S
Africa
470
Korea
Japan
1,800
marin
Asia
1,265
Ocea
nia
642
new technology such as carbon dioxide capture and
storage (CDCS) or coal liquification technology[2][3].
He has a confidence that London can reduce her
CO2 emission only with a conbination of conventional
technologies.
2
Applicability of
London method
The author has estimated various parameters in
2030 using Geographical Relations Dynamics model
[4][5][6][7]. Table 1 is the estimation of GHG emission
in 2030 on regional basis.
2.1
World urbanization in 2030
A. Jones claims that urban areas in the world
produce almost 75 percent of the world total carbon
dioxide emissions so that the efforts to reduce GHG
emissions out of urban areas is the key to slow down
the global warming.
United Nations Population Division released its
forecast on the world urbanization in 2007[8]. Based
on that data, table 2 is the estimated regional population (unit = million men) and its population density (men per square Km) in 2030 based on the same
tessellation of the Earth.
2.2
Megaropolis
Table 3 is the regional urbanization rate (percentage) based on UN Population Division report.
Figure 1 is the distribution of mega cities whose
population is over or almost 10 million in 2007 and
there are growing faster than other urban and rural
areas in the region, as if she had a gravity power to
attract people from other local places.
ISBN: 978-960-6766-71-8
430
Table 2: Regional population (million people) and
population density (men per square Km) in 2030
Polar
Canada
3
(3)
USA
432
(33)
C Ame
rica
359
(64)
Ama
zon
311
(26)
Patago
nia
107
(22)
North
EU
71
(38)
South
EU
443
(139)
Sahara
E
Rusia
101
(3)
Caspi
an
143
(92)
Arab
454
(28)
Congo
475
(60)
Cent.
Siber.
5
(1)
C
Asia
99
(12)
India
SEAsi
2513
(349)
East
Siber.
5
(1)
N
China
686
(167)
S
China
695
(323)
Korea
Japan
181
(329)
marin
Asia
457
(167)
Ocea
nia
47
(5)
1594
(77)
S
Africa
154
(34)
They are: 1 Tokyo(Japan), 2 Mexico City(Mexico),
3 Munbai(India),
4 Sao Paulo(Brazil),
5
New York(USA), 6 Lagos(Nigeria), 7 Los
Angeles(USA),
8
Kolkata(India),9
Shanghai(China), 10 Buenos Aires(Argentina), 11
Dacca(Bangla Desh), 12 Karachi(India), 13
Jakarta(Indnesia),
14 Delhi(India),
15 Osaka(Japan), 16 Manila(Philippines), 17 Peking
and Tianjin (China), 18 Rio de Janeiro(Brazil), 19
Cairo(Egypt), 20 Seoul(Korea), 21 Paris(France),
22
Istanbul(Turkey),
23
Moskva(Russia),
24 London(England),
25 Lima(Peru),
26
Bangkok(Thailand),27
Teheran(Iran),
28
Chicago(USA), 29 HongKong(China), 30 Hyderabad, Chennai and Bangalore (India), 31
Essen (Germany), 32 Bogota(Colombia), 33 Lohore(Pakistan) 34 Chongqing and Wuhan(China),
35 Sankt Peterburg(Russia), 36 Kinshsa(Congo)
French geographer Jean Gottmann studied the
northeastern United States during the 1950 and
described the region as a vast metropolitan area
over 700 Km long stretching from Boston in the
north to Washington, D.C. in the south and named
”Megaloplis”[9]. Also, he identified the greater
Chicago and the axis from San Francisco to Los
Angeles. Then, Japanese researchers identifyied
”Tokaido (eastern seaboard) megalopolis”, the region over 600 Km from Tokyo via Nagoya to Osaka,
Japan. European reseachers identify a megalopolis
named ”Blue Banana” from the northwest of London
through Germany to Milan, streching over 1,000 Km
in European Union[10].
Beside five megalopolises above, the author
ISSN: 1790-5095
4th IASME/WSEAS International Conference on ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT, ECOSYSTEMS and SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT (EEESD'08)
Algarve, Portugal, June 11-13, 2008
forsees growing megalopolises. They could be:
(1) Peking and Tianjin (China) [Bo Hai bay]
(2) Shanghai(China) [Yangtze river delta]
(3) HongKong(China) to Hanoi (Vietnum)
(4) Chongqing and Wuhan(China) [mid Yangtze
river]
(5) Dacca(Bangla Desh) to Kolkata(India) [Bay of
Bengal]
(6) Hyderabad, Chennai and Bangalore (India)
(7) Munbai(India) to Delhi(India)
(8) Istanbul(Turkey) to Athens (Greece) [Agean sea]
(9)
Beirut
(Lebanon),
Damaskus(Syria),Amman(Jorrdan),Jersalem(Israel),
and Kairo(Egypt) [East Mediterranean sea]
(11) Sankt Peterburg to Moskva(Russia)[Baltic sea]
(12) Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro(Brazil) to Buenos
Aires(Argentina)
(13) Bogota(Colombia) to Lima(Peru)
(14) Lagos(Nigeria) to Kinshsa(Congo)[Gulf of
Guinea]
All of them fit into 1,000 Km long and 500 Km
width zone. Execpt (6), there is a similarity among
old megalopolises and growing megalopolises. They
have large sea or river ports which huge container
ships are able to approach.
Recently, Japanese megalopolis has extended
to Pusan(Korea). Seoul(Korea) is being absorbed
to Peking(China) megalopolis as their economic
relations becomes tighter.
The major driving
force to grow megalopolis is development of highways, bullet train, and airplane by which traveler
and cargo can move swiftly within a megalopolis. It
accelerates a clustering effects of industries.
In the case of (6), Hyderabad(India) locates
inland without neither large ports nor well developed
highway system.i.e., logistics infrastructure. Their
major industry is IT outsourcing from USA and EU
via communication satellite network. They need
only big parabola antennas as an IT infrastructure.
This urban cluster could be a completely new type
of urabanization.
Figure 1: Megalo cities
The original model in ”Geographical Relations
Dynamics” consists of 10 times 9 = 90 meshes tessellerating the Earth surface and there are 24 mehses
standing for land and its adjacent continental shelves.
ISBN: 978-960-6766-71-8
431
Table 3: Regional urbanization rate in 2030 (percentage = urban population / total population)
Polar
Canada
100
USA
88
C Ame
rica
79
Ama
zon
88
Patago
nia
87
Alaska
North
EU
76
South
EU
79
Sahara
E
Rusia
95
Caspi
an
75
Arab
58
Congo
66
Cent.
Siber.
100
C
Asia
65
India
SEAs
41
East
Siber.
100
N
China
60
S
China
60
Korea
Japan
76
marin
Asia
72
Ocea
nia
73
47
S
Africa
28
Polar
Canada
Green
Land
N
EU
Russia
C
Siberia
E
Siberia
(10)
N Amrica
S
EU
Caspi
C Asia
N
China
(1)
(8)
C Amrica
(7)
Sahara
(9)
Amazon
(13)
old megalopolis
(12)
Patagonia
India
(4)
S
China
(2)
Arab
(6) (5)
(11)
legend
new megalopolis
Congo
Korea
Japan
(3)
maritime
Asia
S Africa
Oceania
Isolated mega city
Figure 2: Megalopolis and cities on Extended Geographical Relations Dynamics
Now, when we divide each land mesh into 4 times 4
uniformly, we get smaller mesh of 1,000 Km x 1,000
Km in size along the equator. Nominally, this uniform divide provides 90 x 4 = 360 meshes but this
tesselaration increase the complexity in calculation
and database building. There have been studies on
how to avoid unnecessaty tessellaration.
Peter Lindstrom and others published how to use
non-unformed tessellatated surfaces[11]. Their basic
idea is:
1. evaluate the importance of data
2. create a finer mesh whose weight is heigher
3. leave a large area mesh whose weight is small.
Based on this criteria, they create a tessellation of a
mountainous area. Where shaper slope, make mesh
size smaller,while ehere flat slope, leave large size
meshes. The problem of this approach is to render smoothly at the boundarie where different size
meshes meet. They propose an algorithm for smooth
ISSN: 1790-5095
4th IASME/WSEAS International Conference on ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT, ECOSYSTEMS and SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT (EEESD'08)
Algarve, Portugal, June 11-13, 2008
Table 4: an Extended Mesh system on Geographical
Relations Dynamics
ID size of
number content
mesh (Km) of mesh population
density
1
4000x4000
66
seas
0
2
4000x4000
12
land
3-150
3
2000x2000
24
land
200
4
1000x1000
60
cities
> 300
total
162
18
megalopolis
5
mega city
Table 5: Energy Use Efficiency (after IEA World Energy Statistics 2007)
country
unit energy to produce
unit GDP
Japan
1
EU
1.7
USA
2.0
Australia
2.4
Korea, Canada
3.2
China
8.7
India
9.2
Russia
18.0
rendering.
The auther adopt Lindstrom’s concept and generate
the original 9 x 10 meshes to the extended version
consiting of 162 meshes to deal with megalopolis (Figure 2, table4).
• electrification of household: The family size has
decreased signifiantly over decades. In the past,
one family of 5 to 6 members lived in a house.
Today, there are many households whose member is one or two. In spite of decreasing family
size, every household equips as same facilities as
before. It means the total energy consumption
of household are increasing. To match incresing
use of electricity, thermal power stations burn
coals and heavy oil more. 1 Kg of coal produces
2.35 Kg of CO2 (or 0.64 Kg carbon). At iron
and steel works, 1 Kg of coke produces 2.76 Kg
CO2 (or 0.75 Kg carbon). Japanese iron makers
had made a significant technology development
and their energy efficiency is at the top in the
world.
3
Megalopolis, Japan
3.1
Problems
As for Kyoto protocol, Japanese government
committed that Japan will reduce her GHG emission
by 6 percent before 2012. However Japan’s GHG
emission has increased 6 percent over last 10 years
so that it would become impossible to fulfill its commitment on time. Japan does not have any fossil fuel
resource domestically and energy from hydro-power
can not match her need at all. Since the first energy crisis in 1973, Japanese enterprises have made
enormous efforts to improve the energy use efficiency
against their production (GDP basis).
As a result, table 5 shows that the energy use efficiency of Japan is the best in the
world[12][13][14]. However, still today, the energy
produced through various alternative renewable energy technology stands for less than 0.1 percent of
the total energy consumption in Japan. If only, take
a look at industrial sector in Japan, it has become
energy effective over decades.
3.2
Reasons
With the highest energy efficiency, why Japan
can not reduce GHG ?
• automobilism in rural areas: Residents in rural areas have to use his/her car everyday. The
governmental statistics tells that a rural resident
drives more than 40 Km everyday and emmit
about 1.4 tons of carbon dioxide annually. The
ISBN: 978-960-6766-71-8
432
public transportation system in rural area has
decayed significantly as automobilism advances
in rural areas.
So, rather than industrial sector, thermal power stations and cars are the largest CO2 emitters in Japan.
The dilemma comes from not the megalopolis but
from less energy efficient rural society.
3.3
Hopes in the megalopolis, Japan
On the contrary, in the megalopolis, there are less
need for residents to drive cars. They use commuter
trains and buses. Every morning, adults and students
walk or go on a bicycle to any train or bus station.
It takes about 10 to 15 minutes from a house to a
station. Then, travel by train or bus takes 30 to 60
minutes. After getting off from the public transportation, people walks about 10 minutes or so on foot to
their offices or schools. Thus, the public transportation system in the megalopolis is thriving. In Tokyo,
people does not own cars but rent a car over the
weekend for leisure drive. The Energy Conservation
Center, Japan estimates CO2 emission by different
transportation measures (table 6).
In addition, while rural residents live in independent house, urban residents tend to live in large
ISSN: 1790-5095
4th IASME/WSEAS International Conference on ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT, ECOSYSTEMS and SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT (EEESD'08)
Algarve, Portugal, June 11-13, 2008
v1 k
v1 i
Table 6: CO2 emission per transportation
transportation carbon dioxide emission
measure
( per 1 Km man)
bicycle
0g
railway
19g
bus, LRT
51 g
car
151 g
v1 l
v2-1
v1 j
v2-1 k
l
v1 m
v2-1 j
v2-1
v2-2
v3 j
i
v1 n
v3 i
ve
Space Ve
Space V3
apartment complexes which Japanese government
promote energy-saving measures.
What is the major difference between the megalopolis and rural areas in Japan is population density. The density in the megalopolis is more than
1,000 men per square Km, while the average density
in rural areas are about 100 men per square Km.
To make public transportation system economical,
dense population is the key. For example, Amsterdam, Netherlands, is famous for its intense use of
bicycle. Pedestrian, bicycle, car, LRT are getting together. People ride on a train with his collapsible
bicycle on board. Dense population makes this phenomena possible. On the other hand, with an average
density in USA is about 100 so that American people
need private moving measure.
Figure 3: Vernacular vs. international style
Figure 4: Haptic multi layered megalopolis
4
4.1
Haptic Megalopolis
International style
in 20th century
Before the Industrial Revolution, there were clear
geographical difference on villages and cities in the
ISBN: 978-960-6766-71-8
433
Space V2
Space V1
Figure 5: Velocity geography
world. Buildings were made of local material such as
earth, brick, stone, grass, and wood. In desert and
arctic area, wall were very sick for better insulation.
In humid tropical area, wooden house were designed
for better ventilation. Network of narrow paths and
market plaza for various events were common worldwide. We call them ”vernacular style”. Velocity of
moving cargo and travel were same everywhere and
long-distance horse relay system was the fastest measure. Walls surrounding medieval cities has a common size of about 4 Km x 4 Km in length where one
can walk from one gate to another within 20 minutes
or so
A Swedish geographer Heagerstrand proposed
”time-geography” in the early 1970’s and it has been
widely accepted and proved its usefulness especially
in analyzing a working woman with children, who has
to live under severe time use constraints[15].
Paris grand remodeling in the 19th century
have made a great influence over the modern urban
planning in the world. Le Corbusier proposed his
concept of a modern city ”International style” consisting of big buildings which are separated far apart
by wide bouleverds and parks. This idea suits the age
of automobility. There was no need for Le Corbusier
to worry about intensive use energy and construction
material (concrete, steel,and glass). ”International
style” can be built anyplace ignoring the geographical characters in that place. As for logistics, train
and automoble and telegram and telephone for communication.
Toward the global warming age, we are realizing
problems of ”international style”.
The author proposed ”velocity geography”
which can apply the same criteria to any societies[16].
Regardless when and where man lives, man has only
24 hours per day and 365 days in a year. Under this
limitation, man has to perform various duties such
as eating, working, shopping, going to various offices
(e.g., bank, postoffice, hospital, and governmental offices).
ISSN: 1790-5095
4th IASME/WSEAS International Conference on ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT, ECOSYSTEMS and SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT (EEESD'08)
Algarve, Portugal, June 11-13, 2008
Table 7: Velocities of Logistics and Communication
period
histori
-cal
time
18002000-
atom (logistics)
5 km/hour
horse,camel
sailboat
60 Km/hour
train, car
600Km/hour
highway, airplane
bit (communication)
10 Km/hour
long-distance
horse relay system
telegram
telephone
the Internet
(1) 5-10 Km/hour velocity: daily life (primary school,
shopping)
(2) 30-50 Km/hour: commuting, go to any offices
(3) 200-600 Km/hour (bullet train, highway, airplane) go far away
On the other hand, velocities have developed through
the history of mankind (table 7). Today, one can
select any move measure depending on its speed according to the necessity.
Living pattern in the megalopolis suggests some
types of multi-layered spatial structure (figure 4) At
the bottom, there is a traditional vernaculer community both in residential and CBD areas[V1 in figure
5]. Via higher speed network, one can go to another
space (offices, factories, large shopping centers, theators and so on)[V2]. When one goes abroad, one go
to a higher node, an airport node. From airport node,
one transfer himself to more high speed network (airplane) and get out another airport node [V3]. Ve in
fugure 5 is the Internet network whose velocity is the
light speed.
4.2
Renaissance of vernacular
style in 21th century
Man has five senses, such as sight, hearing, smell,
taste and touch. In historical time, man living in vernacular settlement utilizes all five senses, especially
haptic, somatic, and tangible sense. This is the major reason why men loved a narrow path and crowded
market place, where people come together and feel
each other in haptic sense especially at big event such
as religious festival. As same as herbivore, man is social animal who loves getting together.
Today, for the competition sake, architects make
visually nice models either as a miniature or a computer graphic model. Except sight, architects call
remaining four senses simply ”human scale”. Why
urban planner dislike narrow path is that fire engine
can not enter. Fire-resistant building material has
advanced.
Tokyo residents do their daily work such as shopping on foot to nearby shopping mall. There are
small community parks (100 m x 100 km in size)
where aged people play gymnastics in the morning.
Daytime, young mothers come together with their
ISBN: 978-960-6766-71-8
434
infants. Evening, school kids play there. At night,
adult come to have drinks together. The turnover
rate of small parks in Tokyo is very high, while well
designed parks in rural cities are empty.
If local goverment installs a set of collection of
garbage by type in the community park permanently
as same as in Rome or German cities, it would be
nice. Especially, a special garbage can to convert
fresh garbage into compost through bacteria fermentation or by earthworm activity. This community
area just matches to a primary school zone in size.
5
Conclusion and Discussion:
Alan Jones’ strategy to reduce CO2 emisson consists of:
(1) reduce the entry of car into the city.
(2) reduce CO2 emission and energy loss due to the
centralized thermal power plants located far away.
UN population division predicts the urban population in the world surpasss the rural counterpart soon.
A trend follow approach suggests that Alan Jones’
starategy is correct one. In other words, the key to
success is whether we could deal with infrastructure
problem in growing megalopolis in the world. They
are:
(1) megalopolis scale solution:
modal shift from car to a well organized public transportation. In this sense, ”haptic megalopolis” could
be a leading concept in future.
Development of haptic megalopolis could reduce
GHG emission and become more environemntal
(waste treatment, shrubbery along path, and roof
gardens). We have to develop urban infrastructure.
(2) global reallocation of renewable energy production and its transportation:
During 20th century, man had developed the production system and transportation system for nonrenewable fossil fuels because few countries can be
energy self sufficient. Fossil fuels distribute unevenly
on the Earth so that global logistics system have developed such as tankers for oil, LNG ship and gas
pipeline for gas, coal freighter train and cargo ship
for coal.
Everyone has hope on advancement of renewable
energy. But after decades efforts, ratio of renewable
energy use in Japan stands for less tahn 0.1 percent.
German government started to develop all types of
renewable energy use in her territory.(renewable energy self sufficiency policy). It might be wrong.
As same as fossil fuels, renewable energy resouses
have a nature of geographical uneveness. There is
a geographical deviation e.g.,
(a) solar power is best at desert area such as in Saher
zone.
ISSN: 1790-5095
4th IASME/WSEAS International Conference on ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT, ECOSYSTEMS and SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT (EEESD'08)
Algarve, Portugal, June 11-13, 2008
(b) wind power is best along the western European
coasts
(c) wave paper is good at bayor
(d) geo-thermal power at volocvanic zone
Ken Zweibel and his colleagues publish ”A Solar Grand Plan” for USA. The best place for solar
power generation locates in westsouthern desert area
in the continental USA, while the largest consumers
live in American megaloplis. Zweibel proposes an infrasturacture investment for direct-current transmission system with compressed-air energy storage and
hot salt storage[18].
Japanese companies have kept the top position
of manifacturing photo- voltaic panels. Their association poposes a global solar energy reallocation plan
”GENESIS (Global Energy Network Equipped with
Solar cells and International Superconductor grid”.
Utilize the world deserts as solar energy generation
sites so that power can generate 24 hour basis (when
some desert is at night, another desert is in the daytime). To transmit the energy worldwide, built a
global power line grid system based on superconductor technology to make energy loss at minumum[19].
Both groups claim the feasibility when oil price
will be kept higher than 1 barrel 100 US dollars from
now on.
References
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[9] Gottmann, J., Megalopolis: The Urbanized
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[10] Hospers,Gert-Jan,et al., beyond the blue
banana ?
Structural change in Europe’s
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[11] Lindstrom,P.,et al.,”Real-time, Continuous
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[12] The Energy Conservation Center, Japan
http://www.eccj.or.jp/
[13] Agency for Natural resources and Energy
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[14] IEA,World Energy Report 2007,
http://www.iea.doe.jgov/oiaf/ieohecon.html
http://www.iea.org/Textbase/stats/index.asp
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[16] Le Corbusier, Vers Une Architecture, Paris, Le
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