June 2012
THE FUTURE WE WANT FOR FORESTS
Stanley Hirsch & Mike May
The Intrinsic value of forests
Forests are of vital importance, covering 30% of the terrestrial land surface i, 1.6 billion people are
dependent upon them, and they host 50% of all known terrestrial species. Forests have
considerable tangible value - from the $327 billion worth of forest products, providing over 60
million jobs directly, to the huge range of non-timber forest products such as medicines with an
estimated value of over $100 billion.
Nevertheless, the intangible values bound up in the Ecosystem Services that forests provide in
controlling the water cycle, in controlling soil erosion and quality and in the provision of 40% of the
world’s oxygen are presently undervaluedii and we must strive to incorporate these services into
new economic models for growth.
And finally, although forests only cover 8% of the planet, they store 66% of all terrestrial carbon,
providing 30% of the total mitigation capacity needed to abate the rise in atmospheric carbon over
the next 20 yearsiii.
Balancing the need to avoid deforestation and meet demand for forest products
Actions to slow, halt or reverse deforestation from the present rate of 12 million ha per annum iv
must be implemented to protect this immense natural capital, whilst at the same time satisfy the
increasing demand for wood estimated to be at least 3 billion cubic meters per annum, and
predicted to increase 25% by 2020v.
The potential for planted forests as a multidimensional solution to meeting this challenge is
beginning to be appreciated, as exemplified by successes measured in carefully planned and
managed plantations of elite tree varieties in Brazil where since the 1970’s, the sector continues to
establish new milestones in sustainability through a mixture of better breeding and better
management practices – driving up socio-economic impacts whilst reducing environmental
footprint.
Any realistic climate change mitigation or adaptation strategy must by necessity invoke a
comprehensive forest protection plan. Avoided deforestation would provide 5.8 of the estimated
17 Gt CO2 equivalents necessary to keep atmospheric carbon concentrations below 450 ppm – of
which, planted forests could provide 1.5vi. By halving deforestation, net benefits of about. $ 3.7
trillion (NPV) - counting only the avoided damage costs of climate change could be generated vii
taking advantage of the 2 billion hectares of degraded land that is available for reforestationviii – of
which, 75% is in Africa.
Establishing planted forests on degraded land could significantly contribute to soil restoration –
since nowadays, through highly sophisticated forest management practices, 34% of all biomass
produced is returned to the soil and careful planning of harvest cycles minimises soil erosion.
To further increase social impacts, whilst lowering environmental footprint, integration of
plantations with agriculture can avoid food security issues and provide an income stream for
farmers, whilst a mixture of legislation and voluntary management decisions controls planting of
forests in sensitive riparian zones and water catchment areas, thus contributing to local and global
hydrological cycles. Plantations can also aid biodiversity conservation; of all land purchased by the
forest sector in Brazil, between 30 and 40% is set aside as legally protected reserves providing
refuges and corridors for biodiversity – totaling 3 million hectares of protected forest in 2010.
In other parts of the world, plantations are recognised as a practical solution for the control of
desertification – at a FuturaGene trial site in Gansu Province in North western China, native woody
species will be evaluated for their potential to restore degraded and salinized land, for reversal of
desertification and for biomass accumulation.
If we are to embrace the multiple challenges of sustainable development and build a resilient, lowcarbon future for a world operating within stringent natural resource limits, the prospect of scaling
up and replicating plantation forestry models, particularly in the least developed countries is a
highly compelling component of this vision.
Clustering stakeholders and actions to reach the Future we want.
A vibrant forest sector based on sustainable, scalable business models is needed if deforestation is
to be avoided, and all of the potential values of reforestation and afforestation programs are to be
captured and shared. The forest sector of the future will be transformed by scientific and
technological Innovation, through massive investments in advanced breeding, silviculture,
biotechnology and downstream processing technologies. These investments will create the
foundations for improving and protecting yield so that the plantations of tomorrow produce more
biomass with fewer inputs and have the resilience to withstand future environmental shocks and
stresses.
The result will be an explosion in the diversity of industrial products available for the needs and
benefit of citizens and communities of the future and will herald the beginning of the break in our
dependence upon fossil fuels. This will only be possible, however, if the sector can transform itself
through closer Public-Private partnerships, closer and more efficient linkages along the value chains
of the future and a world wide web of research co-operations and germplasm exchanges.
This revolution will be a central asset of the “Resilient Planet” described by the High Level Panel on
Global Sustainability of the UN Secretary Generalix in their report earlier this year – and will give life
to the “safe and just place for humanity” portrayed by Oxfamx.
The cost of engineering this bold transition will be substantial, but there is no doubt that without it,
unsustainable practices will remain locked into the current rapid growth in the emerging
economies. A blend of public and private sector funding, including direct industry investment will
be required, but to enable this flow of investment and technologies, industry and investors will
require clear signals from Governments as active and permanent partners in creating and sustaining
this long term commitment through implementing stable and predictable policy frameworks that
will shape the ultimate structure of this network. Governance - global, national and local is vital.
There are four critical areas where policy will play a vital role in delivering the full scope of this
technology-driven change:
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science-based regulatory mechanisms,
technology development incentives,
policies to promote payment for environmental services, and
policies that stimulate greater public sector funded research.
Clear Planted Forest Policy will be essential.
Inclusivity is essential – the design and implementation of this transformation will require the active
involvement of the rural communities who will be the stewards of the plantations and forests, the
bio refinery workers, and the consumers who will benefit from the more sustainable products and
services this network will provide.
And finally, and certainly not least, the convening power of the United Nations multilateral system
with its mandate for implementation of the Rio Principles, Agenda 21 and its commitment to
providing a coherent and enabling Institutional Infrastructure for Sustainable Development has a
key role in implementing this common vision.
Impacts of stakeholder clustering
Stimulating the productivity of planted forests to meet growing demand for forest products would
directly reduce pressure on natural forests, and with a stronger scientific and technological
innovation focus, the tools, skills and knowledge base for ecosystem restoration and ecosystem
protection services would be available.
What is of great interest from the point of view of the objectives of Rio +20 is the fact that any large
scale initiatives that raise primary productivity have immediate and long-term benefits for rural
development and rural social protection through the generation of incomes and stabilization of
rural employment prospects. At the same time, more efficient primary productivity means not only
more sustainable production processes and more resource efficient value chain creation, but also
more competitive markets and trade benefits, more stable returns on investment and more
environmentally benign consumer products and services.
And finally, and perhaps most significantly, the potential for a biomass based industrial
development translates into a whole world of opportunities for novel, carbon neutral, sustainable
industrial products such as plastics – the bio-economy, which, because it has its roots in a rural
setting could have significant returns for development initiatives – most particularly because such
models can be directly applied to some of the most vulnerable communities in the least developed
countries.
Biotechnology – more from less
Since the 1970’s, breakthroughs in genetics and breeding have provided an incremental series of
improvements in yield, and reductions in rotation cycle time, and place Brazilian short-rotation
eucalyptus plantations by far the most productive form of forestry in the world. Coupled with
parallel advances in processing technology, the amount of land needed to produce a given quantity
of pulp goes down. Yield intensification does not adversely affect key sustainability indicators when
careful planning and management practices are applied; Water use efficiency in modern eucalyptus
plantations compares well with other forms of land use – even forest biomes, and with a root
system that only descends 2.5 m, eucalyptus does not penetrate the water table and perturb
groundwater recharge. Compared with other crops grown in similar soils, eucalyptus is also
efficient in its use of soil nutrients – and both soil hydrology and nutrient composition are
benefitted by no-till planting and harvesting techniques that return 34% of all biomass to the soil.
To counterbalance the predicted increase in the world population to up to nine billion people by
2050, and the related implications of climate change, biotechnology offers a suite of options to the
forest sector that increase yields and productivity in a sustainable way, while lowering the demand
for fertilizers and pesticides, and providing the resilience to match future environmental shocks and
stresses.
Conserving today’s resources for tomorrow means that sustainability must be built on productivity
intensification. Biotechnology is opening new doors to yield improvements on a scale and time
frame and with a precision that would not be possible through conventional breeding alone whilst
reducing the environmental footprint, protecting forests and allowing adaptation of feedstocks for
lower processing needs and more diverse offtakes. In particular, the creation of pest and disease-
resistant trees through the insertion of genes that confer resistance towards the growing list of
insect pathogens that threaten future productivity gains will be essential. According to the FAO,
more than 20 pests and pathogens have increased in impact on forest productivity as a result of
climate changexi, the most notable example so far being the mountain pine beetlexii.
Biotechnology as a catalyst for change: the bio-economy
Where tree biotechnology will truly find its place will be in the emerging bio-economy since it has
the potential to revolutionize product diversification and value chain efficiency. Drawing on the
remarkable evolution of biology as a scientific discipline, the concept of the bio-economy provides
many scientific and technical solutions to enhance resource efficiencies and presents one of the
most compelling opportunities to break the association of GDP growth with fossil-fuel-based carbon
emissions in an inclusive, economically viable and environmentally sensitive manner.
In many respects the bio-economy has already begun, since as the OECD defines itxiii, the bioeconomy refers to economic activities relating to the invention, development, production and use
of biological products and processes.….” Estimates indicate that the European bio-economy is
worth EUR 2 trillion annually and accounts for some 22 million employeesxiv.
Bio-economy models will directly link advances in planted forest biomass through dedicated biorefineries to a whole range of high-value, low volume products that will transform the carbon-based
chemicals market which presently constitutes 66% of the $1.3 trillion global chemicals market. In
Europe alone, it is expected by 2030, products of the bio-processing industry & bioenergy will have
33% share, worth €300bnxv.
Further, because a bio-economy is science based and knowledge intensive, there are realistic
grounds for stimulation of higher education and stimulation of an SME culture. Knowledge
infrastructure policies encompassing the way in which knowledge is generated, managed and taken
up by the relevant industries will define the rate of regional and global transition to a bio-economy.
Countries and companies with the right policy frame, the desire to foster innovation and the ability
to deploy the resulting technology will be poised to secure market share in these areas and
experience growth rates far above those being generated by the traditional forest product sector.
Conclusions
Thus, for the forest sector, “The Future We Want” can be envisaged as a constantly evolving
network of stakeholders united through interdependent actions towards a common, impactoriented vision. Collectively, these actions could mean that deforestation is slowed, halted or
reversed; ecosystems are restored and rural development is realized. Underpinning all of this will
be sustainable, technologically advanced plantation forests driving a global bio-economy that
reduces fossil fuel dependency and breaks GDP growth from carbon emissions.
This scalable, replicable model lies at the heart of some of the most pressing mandates for global
attention and through it, the foundations of trust, empathy and coherence that must be established
between industry, communities and governments can be established.
Sustainable Development has remained trapped in silos for twenty years, the implementation of
Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) that embrace the reality of the complex linkages that govern
actions offers a new vision for inclusive and green growth. The model we present here draws on
the challenges of Common but Differentiated Responsibilities to structure solutions on the scale and
with the urgency that necessity requires.
The forest sector stands ready to support the UN and Governments around the world in making
available its knowledge and experience and to actively participate in the design and implementation
of the pathways of innovation and Sustainable Development Goals that will be agreed upon in Rio in
June 2012.
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i
Forests for People Factsheet, (2011). FAO - www.un.org/forests
The Economics of Ecosystems & Biodiversity (2010). TEEB: Mainstreaming the economics of nature: A synthesis of the
approach, conclusions and recommendations of TEEB - www.teebweb.org Studies such as “The Economics of
Ecosystems and Biodiversity” are providing insights into the ways in which these services could be valued for the
promotion of biodiversity conservation.
iii
McKinsey A cost curve for greenhouse gas reduction, 2007
iv
http://www.adpartners.org/
v
WWF-New Generation Plantations “Bioenergy and Carbon Report 2011”
vi
The McKinsey Quarterly Number 1. Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve v2.0, 2007
vii
Eliasch J. Climate Change: Financing Global Forests 2008
viii
“World of Opportunities” report of the World Resources Institute and the International Union for the Conservation of
Nature (2012)
ix
“Resilient People Resilient Planet. A future worth choosing” (2012). Report of the United Nations Secretary General’s
High Level Panel on Global Sustainability.
x
A Safe and Just Space for Humanity Oxfam Discussion Paper, February 2012
xi
www.fao.org/forestry/54138/en/
xii
http://www.nature.com/climate/2008/0805/full/climate.2008.35.html
ii
xiii
OECD International futures programme. (2006). “ The bioeconomy to 2030: designing a policy agenda”
xiv
A decade of EU-funded GMO research. (2010). Directorate-General for Research and Innovation Biotechnologies,
Agriculture, Food EUR 24473 EN. (2001 - 2010)
xv
Bloomberg New Energy Finance, “Moving towards a next generation ethanol economy”, 11 JANUARY 2012;