China’s Vulnerability Trap
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Jonathan Holslag is Research Fellow at the Brussels Institute of Contemporary China Studies, focusing on
regional security in Asia. He is the author of Trapped Giant: China’s Military Rise (IISS Adelphi series, 2010), and his
new book, The Price of Fear, is forthcoming in 2011.
Survival | vol. 53 no. 2 | April–May 2011 | pp. 77–88
DOI 10.1080/00396338.2011.571013
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China’s Vulnerability Trap ȩȱȱűųȱȱ
Table 1. Selected growth indicators (current US$)
2003
2009
1,274
3,744
Household final consumption expenditure per capita
546
1,338
General government expenditure per capita
249
650
GDP per capita
Trade balance per capita
Gross fixed capital formation per capita
36
220
502
1,708
Source: World Development Indicators
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ŲŪȱȱȩȱȱJonathan Holslag
Table 2. Examples of credit lines extended by Chinese banks to major industries in
2009–10
Company
Loan (US$ billions)*
Huawei
30
ZTE
25
Haier
1.5
Financer
China Development Bank
China Development Bank; Exim Bank
Exim Bank
Geely
3
Chengdu Bank, Exim Bank and others
Chery
1
Exim Bank
Beijing Automotive Industry
3
Bank of China
BYD
1
Bank of China
Baosteel
10
China Development Bank
Chinalco
15
Agricultural Bank of China
Semiconductor Manufacturing International
0.6
China Development Bank
Suntech
7.4
China Development Bank
Yingli Energy
5.3
China Development Bank
JA Solar
4.4
China Development Bank
Trina Solar
4.4
China Development Bank
LDK Solar
9
China Development Bank
Goldwind
China Aviation Industry Corp.
6
26
China Development Bank
Exim Bank, China Development Bank and others
Sources: Xinhua, China Daily, Dow Jones News Wire
*Includes export buyer’s credit, loans for technological development, and credit for branding and marketing activities. This list is not exhaustive.
The volume of credit lines does not indicate how much of these loans has actually been used.
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ŲŬȱȱȩȱȱJonathan Holslag
Table 3. China’s total trade surplus versus selected indicators of China’s foreign
economic aid and annual net US Treasury Bond purchases at year end (US$ billions)
Export credit
Concessional loans
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
1.5
16
21
26
24
0
2009
54
8
10
14
3
21
19
32
US Treasury Bonds purchases
41
63
88
86
81
250
162
Trade surplus
25
32
102
177
263
298
196
Sources: UN Comtrade, China State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) and US Treasury
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the people
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˜ž•ȱ ‹Žȱ ‘Žȱ ’—Š••’‹•Žȱ ŽěŽŒȱ ˜ȱ Š—ȱ ž—›Žœ›Š’—Žȱ Œ˜––Ž›ŒŽȱ ’‘ȱ ‘Žȱ
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˜‹œ˜—ȱ‘’œȱ Šœȱ–Š’—•¢ȱ“žœ’ꮍȱ‹¢ȱ‘ŽȱŽœ’›Žȱ˜ȱž’•’œŽȱŽ¡ŒŽœœȱœŠŸ’—œȱ
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˜ȱ’쎛Ž—ȱŒ˜ž—›’Žœȱ•’—Žȱž™ȱ’—ȱ‹ŠĴ•Žȱ˜›–Š’˜—ȱŠŠ’—œȱ˜—ŽȱŠ—˜‘Ž›ǰȱ’–™Ž8
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The menaces of mercantilism
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China’s Vulnerability Trap ȩȱȱŲůȱȱ
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‹Š››’Ž›œǯȱ —ȱ Ž—ŽŸŠǰȱ ‘Žȱ ‘’—ŽœŽȱ Ž•ŽŠ’˜—ȱ ˜ȱ ‘Žȱ ˜›•ȱ
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Europe and
the United
States are
frustrated
with China
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žȱ‘’œȱ›Š’œŽœȱ‘ŽȱšžŽœ’˜—ȱ˜ȱ ‘Ž‘Ž›ȱ‘Žȱ˜‘Ž›ȱ–Ž–‹Ž›œȱ˜ȱ‘ŽœŽȱ’—Ž›8
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Ž›˜Žœȱ ‘˜™Žœȱ ˜›ȱ ŽěŽŒ’ŸŽȱ •˜‹Š•ȱ ŽŒ˜—˜–’Œȱ ˜ŸŽ›—Š—ŒŽȱ Š—ȱ ’—Œ›ŽŠœŽœȱ ‘Žȱ
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ŲŰȱȱȩȱȱJonathan Holslag
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Ž›Žȱ‹˜‘ȱŠěŽŒŽǰȱ‹žȱ‘Ž’›ȱŠŽ—Šœȱ Ž›ŽȱŒ˜–™•ŽŽ•¢ȱ’쎛Ž—ǯȱ˜‘ȱœ’Žœȱ
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China’s Vulnerability Trap ȩȱȱŲűȱȱ
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ŲŲȱȱȩȱȱJonathan Holslag
Notes
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ūŲȱŠ›Œ‘ȱŬŪŪŭǯ
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Ž—Œ¢ȱ˜›ȱ˜›Ž’—ȱ¡Œ‘Š—Žǰȱ‘Ĵ™DZȦȦ
ǯœŠŽǯ˜ŸǯŒ—Ȧǯ
ŠŠȱŠŸŠ’•Š‹•ŽȱŠȱ‘’—ŠȱŠ’œ’ŒŠ•ȱ
ŽŠ›‹˜˜”ǰȱ‘Ĵ™DZȦȦ ǯœŠœǯ˜ŸǯŒ—ǯȦ
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ŬŪūŪDzȱȁ‘’—Šȱ˜ž›œȱǞŭȱ’••’˜—ȱ—˜ȱ
˜•Š›ȱ›˜“ŽŒœȂǰȱŽžŽ›œǰȱūųȱ˜ŸŽ–‹Ž›ȱ
ŬŪŪųǯ
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‘Ĵ™DZȦȦ ǯ›ŽŠœž›¢ǯ˜ŸȦǯ
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