Participation
•  Voting
•  Campaign Activity
–  Volunteer
–  Contribute money (corporations are people)
•  Contacting officials
•  Group Activity
•  Protest
Voter Participation
•  What trends?
•  How does US compare?
•  Which mode has greatest effect?
Voter Participation
•  Trends
–  Voting is way down in most nations
•  But in US, we elect lots…
–  Campaign activity is flat
•  3% volunteer
–  Donating flat in US (about 10%)
–  Activity of the wealthiest
•  But trying to persuade others is way
% who tried to influence how
others vote
Voter Participation
•  Trends
–  Contacting officials up (?)
•  People say they will, but do they
•  When? How? (email?)
–  Group activity (30%)
•  Dalton says it’s up,
•  Putman it’s down
•  Does Internet act as social group?
Other Participation
•  Trends
–  Protesting up?
•  Most sign petitions, up most places
•  Boycott up US, GB
•  Demonstrate, way up in FR & Germany
–  17% in US
•  Occupy down/flat
–  2-4% in US
•  Strike down/flat
Participation
•  Again, what has most consequences for
what government does?
•  Which is easiest?
•  What differences between how wealthy
and others participate?
Voter Turnout
• 
• 
• 
• 
• 
Who votes, who doesn’t?
Why?
Why a decline?
Is there a decline?
What proposals to increase turnout?
Voter Turnout in US
•  Is there a turnout problem?
•  In US
•  about 50-55% vote in presidential elections
–  up in 2004 & 2008 (+60%), down in ‘12
•  about 30-35% vote in congressional elections
•  Washington state above the national average
US Turnout Compared
•  US turnout low
compared to other
est. democracies
•  Other democracies
also show decline
US Turnout Compared
•  1950s vs. 1990s /
2000
•  Few est.
democracies have
turnout increasing
Voter Turnout
•  In the US
•  there was a steady decline •  turnout 10% lower 2000 than 1960
•  up in 2008
•  turnout much lower now than 1900
–  why ??
•  today, a lower % of eligible voters participate
–  far more eligible voters now
Turnout Trend through 2008
•  Large change in
VAP vs. VEP turnout
•  Since 1980
•  Pool of eligible
voters smaller vs.
voting age
population
M. McDonald data
Voter Turnout
•  1896 90%  drop to 62% in 1904
–  voter registration laws
–  Jim Crow laws
•  1916 61%  drop to 42% in 1920
–  suffrage to women
–  size of eligible electorate doubled
•  1936 59%  drop to 51% in 1948
–  WWII
•  1968 60%  drop to 52% 1972
–  suffrage granted to 18 y/olds
Voter Turnout in US
•  Why a decline since 1890s?
•  Old numbers from a different context
–  high mobilization
•  labor intensive parties
–  limited pool of eligible voters
–  fraud
–  more mobilization then vs. now?
Voter Turnout in US
• 
• 
• 
• 
• 
• 
• 
1960 = 63% in pres (47% in 1962)
1964 = 62% in pres (48% in 1966)
1968 = 61% in pres (47% in 1970)
1984 = 54% in pres (36% in 1986)
1988 = 50% in pres (36% in 1990)
1996 = 49% in pres (36% in 1998)
2012 = 57% in pres (41% in 2010)
Voter Turnout in US
•  Why a decline since 1960s?
•  Demise of parties
–  campaigns now capital intensive (ads)
–  less direct contacts w/ voters
–  candidate centered politics
–  “party building” efforts (soft money) for
GOTV had little effect
Voter Turnout in US
•  Why a decline?
•  Demise of competition
–  Fewer US House races competitive vs.
1960s
•  even with demise of one-party south
–  Fewer state legislative seats competitive
–  Campaign activity concentrated in rare,
competitive districts (and states)
Voter Turnout in US
•  Why a decline?
•  Demise of Competition
•  Effects of competition
–  10% more competitive presidential race in
state = 1% more turnout
•  ie: Ohio (2%) vs (22%) = 2% more
–  2 initiatives = 1% more
–  Senate race, Gov race...
Voter Turnout in US
•  Why increase in 2004 & 2008
•  Were the stakes higher?
–  2000 election result?
–  some new issue?
–  candidate effects?
Voter Turnout in US
•  Why low in US?
•  Regulatory barriers
–  30 day advance registration
–  vote only on day of election
–  must vote at specific location
–  limits on use of mail, absentee ballots
–  Prohibition on felons voting
Barriers to voting
•  Lowest
–  ND, OR, UT, IA, ME, VT, NH, CA
•  Highest
–  MS, AL, KY, VA, MD, FL, TX, LA
Voter Turnout in US
•  Why a decline
•  Regulator barriers
–  What effects of Election Day Registration
(EDR)?
•  Seven states
•  4.5% increase in presidential elections
•  2.0% increase in midterm
Voter Turnout in US
•  Election Day Registration
–  Idaho, Iowa, Maine, Minnesota, Montana,
New Hampshire, North Dakota, Wisconsin,
Wyoming (ND doesn’t require registration)
–  In WA
•  proposal to have shorter pre-reg. period but not
EDR
Voter Turnout in US
•  Election Day Registration
–  Why bother?
•  makes voting more convenient
–  Who will take advantage?
•  ???
•  ???
Voter Turnout in US
•  Election Day Registration
–  Proponents:
•  Democratic Party
–  Opponents:
•  County Auditors
•  Bureaucratic nightmare
–  requires more staff
–  vote provisional ballot?
–  check if registered/voted in other county
Voter Turnout
•  Felon disenfranchisement
–  Two states do not ban from voting (Maine
and Vermont)
–  Some states restore after release /
probation (ex Felons)
–  Some states make ban permanent (unless
govt. approves individual’s restoration)
Voter Turnout
•  Felon Laws
–  Adoption corresponds with extension of
rights to Black Americans
–  Before 1860, 12 of 21 states w/ laws
–  By 1890s, 38 of 45 had laws
•  type of crimes covered changed
Voter Turnout
•  Effects of Felon bans
–  There might not be a decline in turnout
–  Levels of criminal punishment in US way,
way up
–  More felons than ever (Why??)
•  1.4% of Voting age pop by 2000
•  was .5% before 1982
–  More non citizens
•  6% of US Voting age population by 2000
•  up from 2% in 1966
Voter Turnout in the US
•  Why a decline
•  Regulatory Barriers
–  Not a factor growing over time
–  Easier to register now, easier to vote by
mail
–  EDR explains variation in an election, not
since 1960.
Voter Turnout in US
Decline mostly outside of south
•  Low turnout rate of young (post 1972)
accounts for 1/4 of decline
•  VAP vs. VEP....
Turnout 2004, 2008
•  Change VEP
» 
–  White
–  Black
–  Hispanic
–  Asian
–  All
2008
2004
66.1%
65.2%
49.9%
47.0%
63.6%
63.8%
60.3%
47.2%
44.7%
63.8%
-1.1
+4.9
+2.7
+2.4
-0.2
Turnout by Age
•  Not quite linear
•  Young voters lowest
turnout
•  Youth vote up in 2004
(red line) & 2008
charles franklin data
Turnout by Age
•  Youngest cohort
largest segment of
the electorate
•  Greatest underrepresentation in
voting
Turnout by Age
•  Under-representation?
•  Youth vote by party
–  2000
–  2004
–  2008
–  2012
51% Dem
54% Dem
66% Dem
61% Dem
Decline or not...
•  Many, most don’t vote
•  In many nations, clear decline
•  Where are the voters going?
–  Cohort vs. lifecycle effects
Voter Turnout
•  So why don’t young people vote?
–  efficacy
–  life experiences re: politics
–  campaigns don’t care about them?
•  ‘Rock to Vote’, “Vote or Die”?
•  youth vote way up in place where competitive
races (stakes are higher)
•  youth vote 17% nationally in 2004; 19% 2012
Vote or Die?
•  Campaign spending,
ads, targeting youth
vote vs...
•  Generic, contextfree “youth”
campaigns
Voter Turnout
•  So, who votes?
•  Education
•  Age (old people rule)
–  Cohort and life cycle effects
•  Partisans (not independents)
•  Income
•  Efficacy
–  OK, so what drives efficacy
Voter Turnout
•  When & Why do they vote?
•  Regular voters
–  older people and well educated
•  Peripheral voters
–  younger people and less-educated
Voter turnout
•  Competitive elections mobilize
•  larger effect on young & less educated
•  Presidential race 2004
–  person living in uncompetitive state w/ 10th
grade ed. had .46 prob. of voting
–  person in Ohio w/ 10th grade ed .55 prob.
Voter Turnout
•  Midterm election (2002)
–  33 y/o person in state w/ no US Senate
race = .37 prob. of voting
–  33 y/o in state w/ most competitive Senate
race .77 prob. of voting
–  for 62 y.o., high prob. of voting anyway
Voter Turnout in US
•  What difference would it make if turnout
was higher?
–  Composition of electorate change?
•  EDR, Vote by Mail, etc. seem to increase
turnout but not change electorate
•  Competitive elections seem to increase turnout
of everyone
–  greater effect on young, less educated
Voter Turnout in US
•  What happens if higher turnout
–  and low participating groups show up?
•  Young people
•  Less affluent
•  Ex-felons
Voter Turnout
•  Uggen & Manza
–  Because felons are drawn from ranks of
poor and racial minorities, laws take votes
from Dems.
–  Estimate that 2000 Pres. election would
have been reversed
–  Estimate that Dems would have controlled
US Senate after 1984 if not for these laws
•  Thus changed composition of US Courts
Young voters nominated Obama
•  2008 Primaries
–  Ds NH 18-24
–  Ds NH over 65
60% Obama, 22% HRC
32% Obama, 48% HRC
–  Ds FL 18-24
–  Ds FL over 65
49% Obama, 39% HRC
24% Obama, 59% HRC
–  Ds IA 17 - 29
–  Ds IA over 65
57% Obama, 11% HRC
18% Obama, 45% HRC
Voter Turnout
•  Dem primaries: Obama won where
youth turnout reduced age gap
–  28% over 65 in FL, 5 % under 25
–  13% over 65 in NH, 11% under 25
–  25% over 65 in IA, 22% under 27
–  26% over 60 in MI, 8% under 25