Progress Reviews Are Lacunar Strokes Really Different? A Systematic Review of Differences in Risk Factor Profiles Between Lacunar and Nonlacunar Infarcts Caroline Jackson, BSc; Cathie Sudlow, DPhil, MRCP Downloaded from http://stroke.ahajournals.org/ by guest on June 16, 2017 Background and Purpose—Differences in risk factors between lacunar and nonlacunar infarcts might support a distinct arterial pathological process underlying lacunar infarction. Methods—We did a systematic review of studies comparing risk factors in patients with lacunar versus nonlacunar infarction. For each risk factor, we calculated study-specific and pooled relative risks (RRs) for lacunar versus nonlacunar infarction. Results—A total of 16 of 28 studies included risk factors in their ischemic stroke subtype definitions. Hypertension and diabetes appeared commoner among patients with lacunar versus nonlacunar infarction. However, analyses confined to studies using risk factor–free ischemic subtype definitions found only a marginal excess of hypertension with lacunar versus nonlacunar infarction (RR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.04 to 1.19) and no difference for diabetes (RR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.83 to 1.09). Atrial fibrillation and carotid stenosis were associated more with nonlacunar than lacunar infarction but less so when only studies using risk factor–free classifications were considered. Otherwise, there was no evidence of differences in risk factor profiles. Conclusions—Risk factor–free ischemic stroke subtype classification methods should be used for comparing risk factor profiles between lacunar and nonlacunar subtypes. (Stroke. 2005;36:891-904.) Key Words: lacunar infarction 䡲 meta-analysis 䡲 risk factors 䡲 stroke A pproximately one quarter of ischemic strokes are caused by lacunar infarcts: small, deep cerebral infarcts, from 2 to 20 mm in diameter.1 These are presumed to result from the occlusion of single, small, perforating arteries supplying the deep subcortical areas of the brain. If the occlusive arterial pathology is distinct from the atherothromboembolic processes that occlude larger arteries, causing most other types of ischemic stroke, the best strategies for the investigation and treatment of patients with lacunar infarction might differ from those for patients with other ischemic stroke subtypes. Current knowledge of the arterial pathology of lacunar infarction is based largely on Fisher’s meticulous clinicopathological studies, in which he serially dissected the vascular supply of a total of 68 lacunar infarcts in 18 postmortem brains.2– 6 He found that most symptomatic lacunar infarcts were associated with occlusion of perforating arteries ⬇200 to 800 m in diameter by atheromatous plaques, with or without complicating thrombus. Most asymptomatic lacunar infarcts were associated with occlusion of perforating arteries ⬇40 to 200 m in diameter by “lipohyalinosis,” a destructive small vessel lesion characterized in the acute phase by fibrinoid necrosis and in the healed phase by loss of normal wall architecture, collagenous sclerosis, and mural foam See Editorial Comment, pg 902 cells. However, it is difficult to draw firm conclusions from Fisher’s work because the number of patients included was small, most of the lacunar infarcts were asymptomatic, and infarcts related to stroke symptoms were studied months or even years after the acute event. Further progress in understanding the arterial pathology of lacunar stroke has been limited. Pathological studies are rare because autopsy rates are declining, lacunar strokes have a low-case fatality rate,1 and tracing the vascular supply of subcortical lesions is technically difficult and time consuming.7 Difficulties in imaging the small perforating intracranial arteries have made informative imaging studies scarce. An alternative approach has been to compare the risk factor profiles of patients with lacunar infarcts versus those with nonlacunar infarcts because this may reveal differences suggestive of distinct arterial pathologies. However, these studies have tended to have methodological limitations: sample sizes were generally small; risk factors were inconsistently defined; and studies used a variety of different classification methods to define ischemic stroke subtypes (see Appendix A). Some used a classification based primarily on the clinical features of the stroke syndrome (most commonly the Oxford7 Received August 6, 2004; accepted August 31, 2004. From the Division of Clinical Neurosciences, University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom. Correspondence to Dr Cathie Sudlow, Division of Clinical Neurosciences, University of Edinburgh, Western General Hospital, Edinburgh, UK EH4 2XU. E-mail [email protected] © 2005 American Heart Association, Inc. Stroke is available at http://www.strokeaha.org DOI: 10.1161/01.STR.0000157949.34986.30 891 892 Stroke April 2005 Downloaded from http://stroke.ahajournals.org/ by guest on June 16, 2017 shire Community Stroke Project [OCSP] classification8), usually refined by the results of brain imaging (ie, if a patient’s computed tomography [CT] or magnetic resonance [MR] brain scan showed an infarct that was relevant to the presenting syndrome but whose site and size suggested a different ischemic stroke subtype classification from the clinical features alone, the patient was reclassified in line with the imaging findings). Other studies used the clinical and imaging features of the presenting stroke but also included risk factors in their ischemic stroke subtype definitions (most commonly the Trial of Org 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment [TOAST] classification9). This could bias the results of a comparison of the prevalence of such risk factors between subtypes. It might also bias comparisons between subtypes of risk factors not explicitly included in the definitions because many vascular risk factors are associated with each other. A few studies relied on imaging findings alone to classify ischemic stroke subtypes, regardless of the patients’ symptoms. Some patients in these studies may have been classified on the basis of asymptomatic or remotely symptomatic visible infarcts, whereas those with a definite ischemic stroke but no visible infarct would have been excluded. In this article, we report the findings of a systematic review of studies comparing the prevalence of a variety of risk factors in patients with lacunar versus those with nonlacunar ischemic stroke. Methods Study Identification We sought studies published in English up to and including June 2003 comparing the prevalence of risk factors among patients with stroke attributable to lacunar versus nonlacunar cerebral infarction. We identified studies by comprehensive textword and MeSH-based electronic searches of Medline and Embase, designed to retrieve articles about ischemic stroke subtypes, especially lacunar strokes (for details see Appendix B, available online only at http://www.strokeaha.org); perusal of reference lists of all relevant articles identified, searching within books on cortical and subcortical stroke, and discussions with colleagues. We subsequently decided to include only those studies published from 1985 onward because the few earlier studies we identified had very limited access to brain imaging (at that time, CT scanning), and this was often restricted to younger patients. We excluded studies among highly selected groups of patients, for example, randomized controlled trials, and studies in which the definitions used to classify ischemic stroke subtypes were unclear or in which there were data inconsistencies. Data Extraction We extracted information from each study on the population studied (community- or hospital-based; inpatients or outpatients; consecutive recruitment or not), ischemic stroke subtype definitions, risk factor definitions, and the numbers of lacunar and nonlacunar patients with each of the following risk factors: hypertension; diabetes; smoking; alcohol consumption; raised cholesterol concentration; previous transient ischemic attack (TIA); atrial fibrillation (AF); and carotid stenosis. We included in the nonlacunar patient group all the nonlacunar ischemic stroke patients apart from the small proportion of patients with an “unusual” cause of stroke (eg, nonatherosclerotic vasculopathies or hematological disorders), for studies in which these were categorized separately. Both authors independently extracted data from the articles, resolving any disagreements by discussion. Statistical Analyses We grouped studies according to whether the classification used to define ischemic stroke subtypes: included the risk factor under study; included various risk factors, but not specifically the risk factor under study; was based on brain imaging alone; or was based on the clinical features of the stroke syndrome, usually refined by brain imaging, but did not include risk factors. For each risk factor, we calculated study-specific and pooled relative risks (RRs) with 95% CIs for lacunar versus nonlacunar infarction using Cochrane RevMan software.10 We used standard 2 tests to assess statistical heterogeneity between studies. In a post hoc sensitivity analysis, we confined our analyses to community-based studies or studies that had recruited consecutive patients from hospital admissions and outpatient clinics. Results Included Studies We identified 41 potentially relevant studies. From these, we excluded 2 that were published before 1985,11,12 5 for which it was not clear how ischemic stroke subtypes were defined,13–17 1 with data inconsistencies,18 and 5 that included highly selected groups of patients.19 –23 This left 28 studies including 21 980 patients, of whom 5379 had a lacunar infarction.24 –51 The characteristics of the studies included are summarized in Table 1. Sixteen (16 216 patients) used classification methods that included risk factors in the definitions of ischemic stroke subtypes.24,27,28,30 –33,36,40,42– 45,48 –50 Ten of these (10 705 patients) used the TOAST classification,28,31–33,40,43– 45,48,50 which considers the presence of hypertension and diabetes to favor a diagnosis of lacunar infarction, whereas carotid stenosis of ⬎50% and potential sources of cardiac embolism such as AF should be absent for this diagnosis. One study (1262 patients) defined ischemic stroke subtypes on the basis of the site and size of infarction on brain imaging alone.39 Ten studies (4502 patients) defined ischemic subtypes on the basis of the clinical features of the stroke syndrome, generally modified by the site and size of any relevant infarct seen on brain imaging but not including risk factors (Table 1; Appendix).29,34,35,37,38,41,46,47,51,52 Five studies (2522 patients) were community based, whereas 23 (19 458 patients) were hospital based, mostly recruiting hospital admissions (Table 1). The mean age of the patients was higher in the community than in the hospitalbased studies (73 versus 66 years), and the proportion of males was higher in the hospital-based studies. Almost all patients studied had CT or MR brain imaging. Three studies excluded presumed cardioembolic stroke,25,30,41 2 excluded infratentorial infarcts,41,51 and 1 excluded total anterior circulation and posterior circulation strokes (Table 1).38 Table 2 shows the definitions given for the various risk factors studied. Hypertension A total of 25 studies (20 850 patients, 5034 with lacunar infarction) presented data on hypertension.24 –33,35,36,39 –51 Most defined hypertension on the basis of raised blood Jackson and Sudlow TABLE 1. Risk Factors for Lacunar Versus Nonlacunar Infarction 893 Characteristics of Studies Included Stroke Population Recruited Mean % Age Male % With CT/MR Brain Scan¶ Ischemic Stroke Subtype Classification Nonlacunar Comparison Group Risk Factors Studied Total Ischemic Stroke Patients Included (lacunar infarct patients)† Study Year* Ankara40 2002 Consecutive admissions to neurology department with complete evaluation 65 60 100% Risk factor–based (TOAST) All nonlacunar ischemic strokes‡ HBP, DM, AF, smoking, HC 264 (66) Athens48 2000 Consecutive admissions 71 58 100%# Risk factor–based (TOAST) All nonlacunar ischemic strokes‡ HBP, DM, TIA, AF, smoking, HC 850 (177) Barcelona36 1999 Consecutive admissions 66 57 100% Risk factor–based All nonlacunar ischemic strokes‡ HBP, DM, TIA, smoking, HC 2720 (399) Besançon39 2000 Consecutive admissions 69 57 100% Imaging-based All nonlacunar ischemic strokes with a single visible infarction on CT/MRI HBP, DM, TIA, AF, smoking, alcohol, HC 1262 (243) Boston45 2000 Consecutive admissions 69 54 100% Risk factor–based (TOAST) All nonlacunar ischemic strokes HBP, DM, AF smoking, alcohol, HC 410 (109) Buenos Aires44 2001 Consecutive admissions 64 64 100% Risk factor–based (TOAST) All nonlacunar ischemic strokes‡ HBP, DM, AF, smoking, alcohol, HC 234 (105) Downloaded from http://stroke.ahajournals.org/ by guest on June 16, 2017 Cincinnati49 1999 Admissions or autopsied cases (among blacks) NR NR 97%# Risk factor–based (NINDS) All nonlacunar ischemic strokes‡ HBP, DM, smoking 167 (39) Edinburgh38 1999 Consecutive admissions and neurovascular clinic outpatients NR NR NR Risk factor–free Partial anterior circulation strokes (TACI and POCI excluded) Ipsilateral CS 608 (215) Erlangen31 2001 Community-based (13% of original cohort excluded because of incomplete investigation) 73 44 100% Risk factor–based (TOAST) All nonlacunar ischemic strokes‡ HBP, DM, smoking 522 (120) Germany28 2001 Admissions (multicenter) 68 58 100% Risk factor–based (TOAST) All nonlacunar ischemic strokes‡ HBP, DM, TIA, smoking, alcohol, HC 4842 (1028) Izmir32 1997 Consecutive admissions to stroke care unit 63 56 100% Risk factor–based (TOAST) All nonlacunar ischemic strokes HBP, DM, TIA, smoking, HC, ipsilateral CS 1529 (198) L’Aquila46 1998 Community-based (unknown No. of original cohort excluded because of lack of brain imaging) 74 53 100% Risk factor–free Nonlacunar ischemic strokes, excluding CE strokes or strokes of uncertain or mixed etiology HBP, DM, smoking, HC, ipsilateral CS 393 (242) London29 2001 Community-based 72 48 NR Risk factor–free All nonlacunar ischemic strokes HBP, DM, AF, smoking, alcohol 862 (282) Lund (a)41 1989 Consecutive admissions of minor stroke patients to neurology department who were examined using CT, brain, and catheter angiography 58 75 100% Risk factor–free Nonlacunar ischemic strokes excluding potentially CE strokes HBP, DM, TIA, smoking, alcohol, HC, ipsilateral CS, contralateral CS 122 (61) Lund (b)34 1994 Consecutive admissions with brain imaging, carotid ultrasound, and echocardiography 73 55 100% Risk factor–free All nonlacunar ischemic strokes AF, ipsilateral CS 166 (49) Maastricht (a)25 1991 Admissions, excluding infratentorial infarcts 70 NR 100% Risk factor–free Atherothrombotic infarcts (excluding CE strokes for all comparisons except AF)‡ HBP, DM, AF, ipsilateral CS, contralateral CS 247 (103) Nonlacunar ischemic strokes HBP, DM 869 (287) Maastricht (b)26 1996 NR NR NR NR Risk factor–free Manchester37 1998 Acute stroke admissions NR NR 56%§ Risk factor–free Oxford35 1990 Community-based 73 49 85%§ Risk factor–free Nonlacunar carotid territory ischemic strokes HBP, DM, TIA, AF, smoking 304 (102) Riyadh24 1999 Consecutive admissions who had CT brain 59 68 Risk factor-based All nonlacunar ischemic strokes HBP, DM, AF, smoking 756 (248) Risk factor-based (NINDS) All nonlacunar ischemic strokes‡ HBP, DM, TIA, smoking 442 (72) Risk factor–free All nonlacunar carotid territory ischemic strokes HBP, DM, TIA, AF, smoking 517 (170) Risk factor-based (TOAST) All nonlacunar ischemic strokes‡ HBP, DM, TIA, smoking 448 (133) 100% All nonlacunar ischemic strokes AF, ipsilateral CS, contralateral (excluding POCI for CS CS comparisons) 305 (80) Rochester42 1999 Community-based 76 41 Rome51 1995 Consecutive stroke patients hospitalized within 12 hours of onset of event 67 58 San Diego43 1993 Consecutive admissions to and outpatients seen at hospital 61 66 Seoul (a)30 1999 Admissions who had a CT or MRI and catheter angiography 61 76 100% Risk factor–based Seoul (b)33 2001 Admissions within 7 days of onset of event 62 63 100%# Risk factor–based (TOAST) All nonlacunar ischemic strokes‡ HBP, DM, TIA, smoking, HC 969 (215) Taiwan50 1997 Consecutive admissions 66 57 Most Risk factor–based (TOAST) All nonlacunar ischemic strokes‡ HBP, DM, AF smoking, alcohol, HC, ipsilateral CS 637 (195) Texas47 1991 Inpatients and outpatients seen in neurology department 61 75 100% Risk factor–free Nonlacunar carotid territory infarcts, excluding CE and unclassified infarcts HBP, DM, TIA, smoking, ipsilateral CS, contralateral CS 109 (55) USA27 1987 Admissions (multicenter) 68 47 Risk factor-based (NINDS) All nonlacunar ischemic strokes HBP, DM, TIA, AF 1273 (337) 92%# 100% 98%# 97%# Large vessel infarcts, excluding CE HBP, DM, smoking, alcohol strokes‡ 153 (49) *Year of publication. †Total of 28 studies with 21 980 ischemic stroke patients included in the lacunar vs nonlacunar comparisons, and 5379 patients with lacunar ischemic stroke. ‡Ischemic strokes with unusual causes excluded (generally⬍5% of ischemic stroke patients studied). §Siriraj score or Guy’s Hospital Stroke Diagnostic Scale was used to distinguish between ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke in the absence of brain imaging. ¶% of the total No. of ischemic stroke patients included (shown in final column), except where otherwise stated. #% of total cohort studied (all ischemic strokes⫾hemorrhagic strokes). NINDS indicates National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke; TACI, total anterior circulation infarct, POCI, posterior circulation infarct; HBP, hypertension; DM, diabetes mellitus; HC, hypercholesterolemia; CS, carotid stenosis; NR, not reported; CE, cardioembolic. 894 Stroke TABLE 2. April 2005 Definitions of Risk Factors in Studies Included* Hypertension Diabetes Severe Carotid Stenosis Pre/post Stroke Cutoff (mm Hg) Pre/post Stroke Cutoff (mmol/L) Smoking Alcohol† Raised Cholesterol (mmol/L) Ankara40 Pre or post 160/90 Pre or post Fasting ⬎7.8 or random ⬎11.1 Current smoking or within 5 years ND ⬎5.7 ND ND Athens48 Pre 160/90 Pre Fasting ⬎6.0 Current daily smoking or within previous year ND ⬎6.5 ND ND Pre or post 160/90 Pre or post Fasting ⬎6.1 Current smoking or within 5 years ND ⬎6.5 or triglycerides ⬎1.71 ND ND Study Barcelona36 Besançon39 Cutoff Method of Measurement Downloaded from http://stroke.ahajournals.org/ by guest on June 16, 2017 NR NR NR NR NR NR NR ND ND Boston45 Pre or post 140/90 NR NR ⬎10 cigarettes/day ⬎2 units/day NR ND ND Buenos Aires44 Pre or post 140/90 Pre or post Random ⬎11 ⬎10 cigarettes/day ⬎2 units/day ⬎5.7 ND ND Cincinnati49 Pre NR Pre NR Current smoking ND ND ND ND Edinburgh38 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND ⬎70% Ultrasound Erlangen31 Pre or post 160/95 Pre or post Fasting ⬎6.7 Current smoking ND ND ND ND Germany28 Pre 160/90 Pre or post NR Current smoking Daily alcohol consumed ⬎5.7 before stroke or lipid-lowering medication ND ND Izmir32 Pre 160/90 Pre Fasting ⬎6.0 Regular smoking ND ⬎6.5 ⬎50 % Ultrasound, MRA or catheter angiography Pre or post 150/90 Pre Fasting ⬎7.8 Daily smoking within at least last 2 months ⱖ2 units/day for women and ⱖ3 units/day for men ⬎5.7 ⬎50% Ultrasound London29 Pre 160/95 Pre Fasting ⬎7.8 Ever smoked ND ND ND ND Lund (a)41 Pre or post 160/90 NR NR NR Alcohol abuse NR ⱖ50% Catheter angiography L’Aquila46 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND ⱖ50% Ultrasound Maastricht (a)25 Pre or post 160/90 Pre or post NR ND ND ND ⱖ50% Ultrasound Maastricht (b)26 NR NR NR NR ND ND ND ND ND Manchester37 ND ND ND ND ND ND ND ⬎70% Ultrasound Oxford35 Pre 160/90 NR NR Ever smoked ND ND ND ND Riyadh24 Pre or post 160/90 Pre or post Fasting ⬎7.7 NR ND ND ND ND Rochester42 NR NR NR NR NR ND ND ND ND Rome51 NR NR NR NR NR ND ND ND ND San Diego43 NR NR NR NR ⱖ5 cigarettes/day at time of stroke ND ND ND ND Lund (b)34 Seoul (a)30 Pre NR Pre NR Current smoking ⬎7.5 units/day ND ND ND Seoul (b)33 Pre or post 160/90 Pre or post Fasting ⬎6.1 Current smoking ND ⬎5.7 ND ND NR NR NR NR NR NR ⬎6.2 ⱖ50% Ultrasound, MRA or catheter angiography Taiwan50 Texas47 NR NR NR NR NR ND ND ⱖ50% Ultrasound USA27 Pre NR Pre NR ND ND ND ND ND *Definitions for previous TIA and AF not shown. †Values converted from grams into United Kingdom units where necessary. ND, no data, indicates that the risk factor concerned was either not studied or extractable data were not given in the publication(s); NR, not reported, even though the risk factor concerned was studied; MRA, magnetic resonance angiography. pressure before or after the stroke (Table 2). Overall, hypertension was commoner among patients with lacunar infarcts (pooled RR lacunar versus nonlacunar infarction, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.20 to 1.25; Figure 1). However, there was substantial statistical heterogeneity between results of the individual studies (224df⫽105.70; P⬍0.00001), partly arising from the different methods used to define ischemic stroke subtypes (Figure 1). The apparent excess of hypertension in lacunar infarction was confined to studies in which the presence of hypertension favored a diagnosis of lacunar infarction (pooled RR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.21 to 1.28) and studies including risk factors other than hypertension in the definitions of ischemic stroke subtypes (pooled RR, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.23 to 1.34; Figure 1). Among studies defining ischemic stroke subtypes using a risk factor– free classification, the increased prevalence of hypertension among those with lacunar infarction was marginal (pooled RR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.04 to 1.19), with no statistical heterogeneity between studies (Figure 1). Jackson and Sudlow Risk Factors for Lacunar Versus Nonlacunar Infarction 895 Downloaded from http://stroke.ahajournals.org/ by guest on June 16, 2017 Figure 1. RRs (lacunar vs nonlacunar) for hypertension, grouped by ischemic stroke subtype classification method. The RR for each study is shown as a square, with size denoting statistical weight of the study. Horizontal lines represent 95% CIs. Diamonds represent pooled RRs, with 95% CIs represented by the width of the diamonds. N indicates total number of lacunar or non-lacunar patients; n, number of lacunar or non-lacunar patients with hypertension; RR, relative risk; CI, confidence interval. Heterogeneity between four groups: 23df⫽18.22; P⫽0.0004. Diabetes Mellitus Atrial Fibrillation A total of 25 studies (20 851 patients, 5035 with lacunar infarction) presented data on diabetes mellitus.24 –33,35,36,39 –51 Only 13 gave a clear definition of diabetes, generally comprising a history of diabetes before the stroke or raised blood glucose on admission (Table 2). There was a significant excess of diabetes in lacunar versus nonlacunar infarction among studies using a classification in which diabetes favors a diagnosis of lacunar infarction (pooled RR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.17 to 1.34) and among studies using a classification including risk factors other than diabetes (pooled RR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.09 to 1.32). However, among studies with a risk factor–free classification, there was no difference in the prevalence of diabetes in lacunar versus nonlacunar infarction (pooled RR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.83 to 1.09; Figure 2). Fourteen studies (8087 patients, 2266 with lacunar infarction) presented data on AF.24,25,27,29,34,35,37,39,40,44,45,48,50,51 Overall, there was a stronger association between AF and nonlacunar than lacunar infarction (pooled RR for all 14 studies, 0.35; 95% CI, 0.30 to 0.40; Table 3). There was substantial heterogeneity between the individual study results (213df⫽85.08; P⬍0.00001), largely explained by different ischemic subtype classifications (Table 3). The association of AF with nonlacunar infarction was particularly pronounced among studies in which the presence of AF favored a diagnosis of nonlacunar infarction (pooled RR, 0.13; 95% CI, 0.09 to 0.19) and was less extreme for studies using a risk factor–free classification (pooled RR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.42 to 0.62; Table 2). 896 Stroke April 2005 Downloaded from http://stroke.ahajournals.org/ by guest on June 16, 2017 Figure 2. RRs (lacunar vs nonlacunar) for diabetes, grouped by ischemic stroke subtype classification method. Figure format as in Figure 1. N indicates total number of lacunar or non-lacunar patients; n, number of lacunar or non-lacunar patients with diabetes; RR, relative risk; CI, confidence interval. Heterogeneity between four groups: 23df⫽18.22; P⫽0.0004. Carotid Stenosis Other Risk Factors Nine studies (3850 patients, 1074 with lacunar infarction) presented data on ipsilateral stenosis.25,32,34,37,38,41,46,47,50 Definitions of severe stenosis varied, but ⬎50% or ⬎70% stenosis on ultrasound were the commonest (Table 2). Four of the studies using risk factor–free classifications also gave data on contralateral stenosis.25,37,41,47 Overall, there was an excess of ipsilateral carotid stenosis among patients with nonlacunar infarction. The association was more pronounced among studies in which severe carotid stenosis favored a diagnosis of nonlacunar infarction (RR, 0.08; 95% CI, 0.03 to 0.25) and was less extreme among studies using risk factor– free ischemic subtype definitions (RR, 0.35; 95% CI, 0.28 to 0.44). A similar result was observed for contralateral stenosis (RR, 0.21;95% CI, 0.11 to 0.41; Table 3). There was no clear association between smoking, excess alcohol consumption, or history of previous TIA and lacunar versus nonlacunar infarction, irrespective of the method used to define ischemic stroke subtypes (Table 3). Where given, definitions of smoking or alcohol excess varied considerably between studies (Table 2). The definition of raised cholesterol in most studies was based on the blood cholesterol concentration after stroke (Table 2). Although the overall pooled RR of 1.22 (95% CI, 1.15 to 1.30), suggested that raised cholesterol predisposes more to lacunar than to nonlacunar infarction, studies using risk factor–free ischemic subtype definitions found no definite association of raised cholesterol with lacunar versus nonlacunar infarction (Table 3). Jackson and Sudlow Risk Factors for Lacunar Versus Nonlacunar Infarction TABLE 3. Pooled RRs for Risk Factors Other Than Hypertension and Diabetes Studied, Grouped by Stroke Subtype Classification Method Risk Factor AF Stroke Subtype Classification AF included in definitions Other risk factors included in definitions Imaging-based Risk factor–free All groups combined* Downloaded from http://stroke.ahajournals.org/ by guest on June 16, 2017 Ipsilateral carotid stenosis Stenosis included in definitions Risk factor–free All groups combined† Contralateral carotid stenosis Smoking Risk factor–free Other risk factors included in definitions Imaging-based Risk factor–free All groups combined‡ Alcohol Other risk factors included in definitions Imaging-based Risk factor–free All groups combined¶ Previous TIA Previous TIA included in definitions No. of Studies/Ischemic Strokes/Lacunar Infarcts RR (95% CI) Heterogeneity Statistics 6/3668/989 0.13 (0.09 to 0.19) 25df⫽7.03; P⫽0.22 1/756/248 0.12 (0.05 to 0.29) 1/1262/243 0.59 (0.47 to 0.74) 6/2401/786 0.51 (0.42 to 0.62) 25df⫽11.96; P⫽0.04 14/8087/2266 0.35 (0.30 to 0.40) 213df⫽85.08; P⫽⬍0.00001 2/2166/393 0.08 (0.03 to 0.25) 21df⫽0.83; P⫽0.36 7/1684/681 0.35 (0.28 to 0.44) 26df⫽17.72; P⫽0.007 9/3850/1074 0.30 (0.24 to 0.37) 28df⫽27.98; P⫽0.0005 4/661/279 0.21 (0.11 to 0.41) 23df⫽4.56; P⫽0.21 15/14943/3153 1.06 (0.99 to 1.12) 214df⫽48.97; P⫽⬍0.0001 1/1262/243 1.22 (1.02 to 1.46) 6/2305/911 1.00 (0.92 to 1.08) 25df⫽11.79; P⫽0.04 22/18510/4307 1.05 (1.00 to 1.10) 222df⫽65.16; P⫽⬍0.00001 5/6276/1486 1.11 (0.96 to 1.29) 24df⫽4.42; P⫽0.35 1/1262/243 1.41 (0.98 to 2.04) 2/984/343 0.95 (0.68 to 1.34) 21df⫽0.27; P⫽0.60 8/8522/2072 1.12 (0.98 to 1.27) 27df⫽7.10; P⫽0.42 8/12964/2546 0.88 (0.78 to 1.00) 27df⫽7.03; P⫽0.43 897 898 Stroke April 2005 TABLE 3. Continued Risk Factor Stroke Subtype Classification Imaging-based Risk factor–free All groups combined§ Raised cholesterol Other risk factors included in definitions Imaging-based Downloaded from http://stroke.ahajournals.org/ by guest on June 16, 2017 Risk factor–free All groups combined# No. of Studies/Ischemic Strokes/Lacunar Infarcts RR (95% CI) Heterogeneity Statistics 1/1262/243 1.11 (0.83 to 1.48) 4/1052/388 1.26 (0.97 to 1.64) 23df⫽8.37; P⫽0.04 13/15278/3177 0.95 (0.86 to 1.05) 212df⫽21.71; P⫽0.04 9/12455/2492 1.26 (1.18 to 1.35) 28df⫽27.98; P⫽0.0005 1/1262/243 1.20 (0.92 to 1.57) 2/515/303 0.75 (0.58 to 0.97) 21df⫽0.14; P⫽0.71 12/14232/3038 1.22 (1.15 to 1.30) 211df⫽42.79; P⫽⬍0.0001 *Heterogeneity between 4 groups: 23df⫽66.1; P⬍0.00001 †Heterogeneity between 3 groups: 21df⫽9.4; P⫽0.002 ‡Heterogeneity between 3 groups: 23df⫽4.4; P⫽0.1 ¶Heterogeneity between 3 groups: 22df⫽2.4; P⫽0.3 §Heterogeneity between 3 groups: 22df⫽6.3; P⫽0.04 #Heterogeneity between 2 groups: 22df⫽14.7; P⫽0.0007. Sensitivity Analysis When we repeated our analyses including only communitybased studies or studies that had recruited consecutive patients from hospital admissions and outpatient clinics, we found very similar results for all risk factors (data available from authors on request). Discussion Many studies have explored the association of various risk factors with different subtypes of ischemic stroke. Their pooled results must be interpreted carefully, with consideration given to various potential sources of heterogeneity. Ischemic Stroke Subtype Classification Bias The most important and striking difference was in the classification systems used to define ischemic stroke subtypes. Many studies included the risk factors being studied in their definitions of ischemic stroke subtypes, which may lead to bias (referred to hereafter as “classification bias”) when assessing differences in risk factor profiles between lacunar and nonlacunar ischemic strokes. The most appropriate classification system for investigating possible differences in risk factors between ischemic stroke subtypes should, ideally, be free of etiological assumptions about risk factors and so based solely on the clinical features of the stroke syndrome along with the appearances on brain imaging (ie, the site and size of the relevant lesion).8 Classification bias was of particular importance in the results for hypertension and diabetes. The apparent excess of hypertension and diabetes among lacunar versus nonlacunar infarction patients disappeared when only studies using risk factor–free classifications were considered. Classification bias also affected the results for AF and carotid stenosis. The excess of AF and carotid stenosis among nonlacunar infarction patients was (unsurprisingly) more extreme among studies in which the presence of AF or carotid stenosis mitigated against a diagnosis of lacunar infarction. Emboli from the heart can occasionally occlude small, perforating cerebral vessels, and so it may be difficult to ascertain whether AF is causal or simply a manifestation of generalized vascular disease. Similarly, although carotid stenosis is more prevalent among nonlacunar infarcts, it does occur in association with some lacunar infarcts. The similarity of RRs for ipsilateral and contralateral carotid stenosis supports the concept that carotid stenosis is unlikely to cause most lacunar infarctions. However, the benefit from carotid endarterectomy among patients with lacunar infarction and severe carotid stenosis suggests that artery-to-artery emboli and low flow Jackson and Sudlow Risk Factors for Lacunar Versus Nonlacunar Infarction resulting from carotid stenosis may play an etiological role in some lacunar infarcts.53 Variation Between Studies in Stroke Patient Population Studied Downloaded from http://stroke.ahajournals.org/ by guest on June 16, 2017 A further potential source of variability is in the population of patients studied. Most studies we identified were hospital based. The ideal study population would include all patients with an incident stroke in a particular geographical area (ie, a community-based stroke study), regardless of whether or not they attended hospital. A recent meta-analysis of community-based studies comparing the risk factor profiles of different ischemic stroke subtypes found only 4 such studies (and all but 1 small study including 102 patients that had not been published previously were included in our systematic review).54 Community-based studies should avoid spurious differences in risk factor profiles between ischemic stroke subtypes arising because of hospital admission selection bias. But diagnosis of ischemic stroke subtype will first require appropriately timed brain imaging to exclude primary intracerebral hemorrhage, and patients managed entirely outside hospital are unlikely to access such imaging. Thus, for our purposes here, a series of patients recruited consecutively from outpatients as well as hospital admissions is unlikely to be any more biased than a community-based stroke register. Reassuringly, our results were essentially unchanged by a sensitivity analysis including only those studies based in the community or studying inpatient admissions and outpatients. Potential selection bias could be reduced by using multivariate analysis methods to adjust the results for each risk factor for the confounding effects of other risk factors (eg, age, gender, etc). We could calculate only univariate associations because we did not have the individual patient data necessary for multivariate analyses. However, the few studies that performed both types of analyses found little difference between the results of univariate and multivariate analyses.25,26,29,35,46 Variable Misclassification of Ischemic Stroke Subtypes Another source of variation between studies using risk factor– based classification systems such as TOAST is the reliance on a number of investigations (such as carotid ultrasound, transcranial Doppler, echocardiography, etc) apart from brain imaging to allow assignment of an ischemic stroke subtype because access to these investigations is bound to vary between centers and according to patient characteristics such as age. Furthermore, the TOAST classification does not allow assignment of an ischemic stroke subtype when there is ⬎1 potential cause of stroke, which occurred in 7% of ischemic strokes in a large, hospital-based stroke register.55 In this case, or in the case of incomplete investigation, patients are placed in the “undetermined etiology” category. In the studies that used the TOAST classification, the proportion of patients in this category varied widely from 8%45 to 41%.33 This 899 must be partly the result of variable access to diagnostic investigations but could also reflect inconsistent application of the TOAST criteria.56 The large and variable proportion of patients in the “undetermined” subtype category (some of which will be lacunar, and others nonlacunar, in unknown proportions) introduces heterogeneity between the studies. A classification that can assign a stroke subtype to all (or at least almost all) ischemic stroke patients in the study population will be less prone to such heterogeneity, favoring classifications based mainly on clinical features of the stroke syndrome.8 However, even if all ischemic strokes are assigned a subtype, there will still inevitably be some misclassification. In particular, some lacunar infarcts will be misclassified as small cortical infarcts and vice versa57 because the clinical features of the stroke syndrome alone are of limited accuracy in distinguishing these subtypes, and frequently, the relevant infarct is not visible on CT or MR brain scan. The extent of misclassification will depend partly on the proportion of patients with brain imaging and the type and timing of imaging used, which varied between the studies included. Small recent infarcts are more likely to be seen with diffusion-weighted MRI, but none of the studies we identified used this technique. The effects of misclassification of subtypes on risk factor associations are difficult to predict and will only be clarified by further studies using modern imaging techniques (including diffusion-weighted MR whenever possible) in large numbers of patients. Variable Definitions of Risk Factors Variability in the definitions used for the risk factors studied (Table 2) could also account for some of the heterogeneity between the results of different studies. Summary Our results suggest that the controversial assertion that hypertension and diabetes are particularly associated with lacunar infarction may arise almost entirely from classification bias. Hypertension and diabetes are risk factors for ischemic stroke in general, but their presence does not help to distinguish the ischemic stroke subtype. In addition, although AF and carotid stenosis are associated more with nonlacunar than lacunar infarction, this association is not as extreme as risk factor– based classification systems might suggest. Finally, there is no clear evidence of any association between smoking, previous TIA, excess alcohol consumption, or raised cholesterol and lacunar versus nonlacunar ischemic stroke subtypes. Acknowledgments C.S. and C.J. were both funded by the Wellcome Trust, United Kingdom. We are very grateful to Professors Charles Warlow, Peter Sandercock, Martin Dennis, and Joanna Wardlaw, to Dr Steff Lewis, and to the anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments on earlier versions of this manuscript. 900 Stroke April 2005 Appendix A Method Based on risk factors as well as clinical and brain imaging features Downloaded from http://stroke.ahajournals.org/ by guest on June 16, 2017 Based on brain imaging only Based on clinical features and brain imaging only Description TOAST Ischemic stroke classified into one of 5 categories. Large-artery atherosclerosis: Clinical findings include cortical, cerebellar, or brain stem dysfunction and on brain imaging cortical, cerebellar, brain stem or subcortical lesions ⬎1.5 cm are considered to be of potential large-artery atherosclerotic origin. Diagnosis requires supportive evidence by duplex imaging or arteriography of ⬎50% stenosis of an appropriate intracranial or extracranial artery. Potential sources of cardiogenic embolism, such as AF should be excluded, and a history of TIAs in the same vascular territory supports the clinical diagnosis. Cardioembolism: Clinical and brain imaging findings are similar to those described for large artery atherosclerosis. At least 1 cardiac source of embolism, such as AF, must be identified. Previous TIAs in ⬎1 vascular territory supports the diagnosis. Potential large-artery atherosclerotic sources of thrombosis or embolism should be absent. Lacunar: Clinical findings of one of the lacunar syndromes should be present. Brain imaging should be normal or show a relevant brain stem or subcortical hemispheric lesion of diameter ⬍1.5cm. A history of diabetes mellitus or hypertension supports the diagnosis. Potential cardiac sources of embolism, such as AF, should be absent, and the large extracranial arteries should not demonstrate ⬎50% stenosis. Undetermined etiology: Includes patients with ⱖ2 potential causes of stroke (eg, AF and ⬎50% stenosis of extracranial arteries). Other determined etiology: Includes patients with rare causes of stroke (eg, nonatherosclerotic vasculopathies and hematologic disorders. NINDS Large-artery atherosclerosis: Clinical and brain imaging findings as described in TOAST. A history of TIAs is considered more common than among those with other types of stroke. Clinical diagnosis rests on finding evidence of arterial stenosis or occlusion at ⱖ1 sites. Cardioembolism: Clinical and brain imaging findings as described in TOAST. The basis for the clinical diagnosis is the demonstration of a cardiac–transcardiac source of embolism (such as AF) and no evidence of other causes of stroke. Lacunar: Clinical findings of a lacunar syndrome with normal brain imaging or relevant lesion. No mention of risk factors that specifically support a lacunar diagnosis. Undetermined etiology: Cerebral infarction in the absence of stenosis or occlusion of extracranial or intracranial arteries, cardiac source of embolism, or other demonstrable mechanism. Unusual cause: Includes patients with rare causes of stroke (eg, nonatherosclerotic vasculopathies and hematologic disorders. Site and size of visible infarction on CT or MRI scan used to classify stroke subtypes irrespective of patient’s symptoms. Patients with a definite ischemic stroke but no visible infarct excluded. eg, OCSP Clinical stroke syndrome (eg, TACI, PACI, LACI, and POCI) used to assign stroke subtype, then revised in light of site and size of any relevant infarct seen on CT or MRI scan. NINDS indicates National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke: Classification of Cerebrovascular Diseases III; TACI, total anterior circulation infarction; PACI, partial anterior circulation infarction; LACI, lacunar infarction; POCI, posterior circulation infarction. References 1. Bamford J, Sandercock P, Jones L, Warlow C. The natural history of lacunar infarction: the Oxfordshire Community Stroke Project. Stroke. 1987;18:545–551. 2. Fisher CM. The arterial lesions underlying lacunes. Acta Neuropathol. 1969;12:1–15. 3. Fisher CM. Bilateral occlusion of basilar artery branches. J Neurol Neurosurg Psychiatry. 1977;40:1182–1189. 4. Fisher CM. Thalamic pure sensory stroke: a pathologic study. Neurology. 1978;28:1141–1144. 5. Fisher CM. Capsular infarcts. The underlying lesions. Arch Neurol. 1979; 36:65–73. 6. Fisher CM, Tapia J. Lateral medullary infarction extending to the lower pons. J Neurol Neurosurg Psychiatry. 1987;50:620 – 624. 7. Lammie GA. 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Jackson and Sudlow Risk Factors for Lacunar Versus Nonlacunar Infarction Downloaded from http://stroke.ahajournals.org/ by guest on June 16, 2017 21. Inzitari D, Eliasziw M, Sharpe BL, Fox AJ, Barnett HJ. Risk factors and outcome of patients with carotid artery stenosis presenting with lacunar stroke. North American Symptomatic Carotid Endarterectomy Trial Group. Neurology. 2000;54:660 – 666. 22. Lee TI, Hsu WC, Chen CJ, Chen ST. Etiologic study of young ischemic stroke in Taiwan. Stroke. 2002;33:1950 –1955. 23. Nagai Y, Kitagawa K, Sakaguchi M, Shimizu Y, Hashimoto H, Yamagami H, Narita M, Ohtsuki T, Hori M, Matsumoto M. Significance of earlier carotid atherosclerosis for stroke subtypes. Stroke. 2001;32: 1780 –1785. 24. Awada A, al Rajeh S. The Saudi Stroke Data Bank. Analysis of the first 1000 cases. Acta Neurol Scand. 1999;100:265–269. 25. Boiten J, Lodder J. Lacunar infarcts. Pathogenesis and validity of the clinical syndromes. Stroke. 1991;22:1374 –1378. 26. Boiten J, Luijckx GJ, Kessels F, Lodder J. Risk factors for lacunes. Neurology. 1996;47:1109 –1110. 27. Foulkes MA, Wolf PA, Price TR, Mohr JP, Hier DB. The Stroke Data Bank: design, methods, and baseline characteristics. Stroke. 1988;19: 547–554. 28. Grau AJ, Weimar C, Buggle F, Heinrich A, Goertler M, Neumaier S, Glahn J, Brandt T, Hacke W, Diener HC. Risk factors, outcome, and treatment in subtypes of ischaemic stroke. Stroke. 2001;32:2559 –2566. 29. Hajat C, Dundas R, Stewart JA, Lawrence E, Rudd AG, Howard R, Wolfe CD. Cerebrovascular risk factors and stroke subtypes: differences between ethnic groups. Stroke. 2001;32:37– 42. 30. Kim JS, Choi-Kwon S. Risk factors for stroke in different levels of cerebral arterial disease. Eur Neurol. 1999;42:150 –156. 31. Kolominsky-Rabas PL, Weber M, Gefeller O, Neundoerfer B, Heuschmann P. Epidemiology of ischaemic stroke subtypes according to TOAST criteria. Incidence, recurrence and long-term survival in ischaemic stroke subtypes: a population study. Stroke. 2001;32: 2735–2740. 32. Kumral E, Ozkaya B, Sagduyu A, Sirin H, Vardarli E, Pehlivan M. The Ege Stroke Registry: a hospital-based study in the Aegean region, Izmir, Turkey. Analysis of 2000 stroke patients. Cerebrovasc Dis. 1998;8: 278 –288. 33. Lee BI, Nam HS, Heo JH, Kim DI, The Yonsei Stroke Team. Yonsei Stroke Registry. Analysis of 1000 patients with acute cerebral infarctions. Cerebrovasc Dis 2001;12:145–151. 34. Lindgren A, Roijer A, Norrving B, Wallin L, Eskilsson J, Johansson B. Carotid artery and heart disease in subtypes of cerebral infarction. Stroke. 1994;25:2356 –2362. 35. Lodder J, Bamford JM, Sandercock PA, Jones LN, Warlow CP. Are hypertension or cardiac embolism likely causes of lacunar infarction? Stroke. 1990;21:375–381. 36. Marti-Vilalta JL, Arboix A. The Barcelona Stroke Registry. Eur Neurol. 1999;41:135–142. 37. Mead GE, Shingler H, Farrell A, O’Neill PA, McCollum CN. Carotid disease in acute stroke. Age Ageing. 1998;27:677– 682. 38. Mead GE, Wardlaw JM, Lewis SC, McDowall M, Dennis MS. Can simple clinical features be used to identify patients with severe carotid stenosis on Doppler ultrasound? J Neurol Neurosurg Psychiatry. 1999; 66:16 –19. 39. Moulin T, Tatu L, Vuillier F, Berger E, Chavot D, Rumbach L. Role of a stroke data bank in evaluating cerebral infarction subtypes: patterns and outcome of 1776 consecutive patients from the Besancon stroke registry. Cerebrovasc Dis. 2000;10:261–271. 901 40. Murat SM, Erturk O. Ischaemic stroke subtypes: risk factors, functional outcome and recurrence. Neurol Sci. 2002;22:449 – 454. 41. Norrving B, Cronqvist S. Clinical and radiological features of lacunar vs non-lacunar minor stroke. Stroke. 1988;20:59 – 64. 42. Petty GW, Brown RD Jr, Whisnant JP, Sicks JD, O’Fallon WM, Wiebers DO. Ischemic stroke subtypes: a population-based study of incidence and risk factors. Stroke. 1999;30:2513–2516. 43. Rothrock JF, Lyden PD, Brody ML, Taft-Alvarez B, Kelly N, Mayer, Wiederholt WC. An analysis of ischemic stroke in an urban southern California population. The University of California, San Diego, stroke data bank. Arch Intern Med. 1993;153:619 – 624. 44. Saposnik G, Gonzalez L, Lepera S, Luraschi A, Sica RE, Caplan LR, Rey RC. Southern Buenos Aires stroke project. Acta Neurol Scand. 2001;22: 449 – 454. 45. Saposnik G, Caplan LR, Gonzalez LA, Baird A, Dashe J, Luraschi A, Llinas R, Lepera S, Linfante I, Chaves C, Kanis K, Sica RE, Rey RC. Differences in stroke subtypes among natives and caucasians in Boston and Buenos Aires. Stroke. 2000;31:2385–2389. 46. Schmal M, Marini C, Carolei A, Di Napoli M, Kessels F, Lodder J. Different vascular risk factor profiles among cortical infarcts, small deep infarcts, and primary intracerebral haemorrhage point to different types of underlying vasculopathy. A study from the L’Aquila Stroke Registry. Cerebrovasc Dis. 1998;8:14 –19. 47. Tegeler CH, Shi F, Morgan T. Carotid stenosis in lacunar stroke. Stroke. 1991;22:1124 –1128. 48. Vemmos KN, Takis CE, Georgilis K, Zakopoulos NA, Lekakis JP, Papamichael CM, Zis VP, Stamatelopoulos S. The Athens Stroke Registry: results of a five-year hospital-based study. Cerebrovasc Dis. 2000; 10:133–141. 49. Woo D, Gebel J, Miller R, Kothari R, Brott T, Khoury J, Salisbury S, Shukla R, Pancioli A, Jauch E, Broderick J. Incidence rates of first-ever ischemic stroke subtypes among blacks: a population-based study. Stroke. 1999;30:2517–2522. 50. Yip PK, Jeng JS, Lee TK, Chang YC, Huang ZS, Ng SK, Chen RC. Subtypes of ischemic stroke. A hospital-based stroke registry in Taiwan (SCAN-IV). Stroke. 1997;28:2507–2512. 51. Toni D, Fiorelli M, De Michele M, Bastianello S, Sacchetti M, Montinaro E, Zanette EM, Argentino C. Clinical and prognostic correlates of stroke subtype misdiagnosis within 12 hours from onset. Stroke. 1995;26: 1837–1840. 52. Boiten J, Lodder J. Risk factors for lacunar infarction. In: Donnan GA, Norrving B, Bamford J, Bogousslavsky J, eds. Subcortical Stroke. New York: Oxford University Press. 2002; 87–97. 53. Kelly J, Hunt BJ, Rudd A, Lewis RR. Should patients with lacunar stroke and severe carotid stenosis undergo endarterectomy? QJM. 2002;95: 313–319. 54. Schulz UGR, Rothwell PM. Differences in vascular risk factors between etiological subtypes of ischemic stroke: importance of population-based studies. Stroke. 2003;34:2050 –2059. 55. Moncayo J, Devuyst G, Van Melle G, Bogousslavsky J. Coexisting causes of ischemic stroke. Arch Neurol. 2000;57:1139 –1144. 56. Goldstein LB, Jones MR, Matchar DB, Edwards LJ, Hoff J, Chilukuri V, Armstrong SB, Horner RD. Improving the reliability of stroke subgroup classification using the Trial of ORG in Acute Stroke Treatment (TOAST) criteria. Stroke. 2001;32:1091–1097. 57. Mead GE, Lewis SC, Wardlaw JM, Dennis M, Warlow CP. Should computed tomography appearance of lacunar stroke influence patient management? J Neurol Neurosurg Psychiatry. 1999;67:682– 684. 902 Stroke April 2005 Editorial Comment Time to Burn the TOAST There will be a rediscovery of the worth of the nowalmost-abandoned autopsy and clinical pathological conference and the realization that MRI, computed tomography, and ultrasonography cannot substitute for direct postmortem examination of the brain and blood vessels.1 James F. Toole Downloaded from http://stroke.ahajournals.org/ by guest on June 16, 2017 The observations of many 20th century stroke studies led their authors to question whether there were any significant special risk factors, like hypertension, for little strokes. By assuming the onerous and painstaking task of systematically reviewing all of the pertinent literature, Jackson and Sudlow have accomplished a unique task, the proof of a negative!2 There are no specific etiological diagnostic risk factors for small-vessel occlusion (lacune), the most common variety of stroke in the TOAST (Trial of ORG 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment) tabulation.3 TOAST was the standard classification system for clinical definition of ischemic strokes. Even BT (before TOAST), the common knowledge of most experienced clinicians was that family history, age, smoking, hypertension, cardiac or systemic atherosclerosis, previous stroke, diabetes, obesity, and cachexia of any cause are pertinent to general health and probably to the incidence of stroke. And they knew that big strokes are worse than little strokes, especially for debilitated older patients. In 1993, the TOAST stroke investigators recognizing “the etiology of ischemic stroke affects prognosis, outcome, and management,” proposed a “classification of subtype of acute ischemic stroke: definitions for use in a multicenter clinical trial.”3 Their premise was “determining the cause of stroke does influence choices for management.” Their Table 1 illustrates the range of their causal conclusions, 5 major categories, segregated with modest hedging. For large-artery atherosclerosis, there is an (embolus/thrombosis) choice, and for cardioembolism, a choice of (high-risk/ medium-risk). These, along with small-vessel occlusion (lacune) and stroke of other determined etiology, are adorned with an asterisk whose footnote indicates the premise that “investigators are allowed to express their certainty by classifying the likelihood of diagnosis as probable or possible. . . . because most etiological diagnoses in stroke are not based on pathological confirmation and are thus presumptive.” The reliability test of the system was that “two physicians agreed in their final diagnosis of subtype of ischemic stroke in 19 of 20 [independently assessed] patients.” In 1998, the authors of the TOAST system reported their therapeutic trial of danaparoid. “Subtypes of acute ischemic stroke were also a pre-specified end point. . . . The effects of the severity of stroke on admission or the cause [italics ours] of stroke on outcomes at 3 months are listed in Table 3” (Table 2).4 The diffident asterisks and graded choices have been replaced by unqualified “cause.” “Subtypes are determined by the Clinical Coordination Center.” Their terminal extension of this democratic method was, “A panel of three physicians who are not aware of the treatment allocation ascertained the most likely cause of death” (82 deaths, 0 autopsies). (Recall the story of the kindergarten teacher who explained to her class that she could not ascertain by inspection the sex of their new pet gerbil. The bright girl in the first row solved the conundrum; “Let’s vote!”) This article established the unfortunate precedent of verbal slippage from possible to probable, then often via risk factor or mechanism to cause, a noun that should carry the rigorous onus of homology to Koch’s postulate.5,6 The same slippage is evident in the recent classification of posterior circulation strokes.7 Review of the projected TOAST criteria for the choice of cause is pertinent.3 Large-artery atherosclerosis requires big symptoms, multiple or severe, forebrain or hindbrain, big lesion, and imaging evidence of stenosis ⬎50% of an appropriate artery, intracranial or extracranial. It is well known that such vasculopathy is commonplace in the absence of stroke, a fact underlined by the secondary need to “exclude potential sources of cardiogenic embolism.” Conversely, it is certain that such strokes do occur in the absence of conspicuous arteriographic pathology. Cardioembolism “presumably due to an embolus arising in the heart.” This presumption automatically magnifies the incidence of cardioembolism by arbitrarily purging the possibility of any other cause for stroke while lumping together with atrial fibrillation 23 listed less common sources of cardioembolism. It has been proved only that the incidence of stroke is reduced by coumadin in patients with atrial fibrillation.8 Small-vessel occlusion (lacune). Walter Alvarez first called special attention to the clinical phenomenology of “little strokes.”9,10 Two score years ago, before computed TABLE 1. TOAST Classification of Subtypes of Acute Ischemic Stroke Large-artery atherosclerosis (embolus/thrombosis)* Cardioembolism (high-risk/medium-risk)* Small-vessel occlusion (lacune)* Stroke of other determined etiology* Stroke of undetermined etiology a. Two or more causes identified b. Negative evaluation c. Incomplete evaluation TOAST indicates Trial of Org 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment. *Possible or probable depending on results of ancillary studies. Jackson and Sudlow Risk Factors for Lacunar Versus Nonlacunar Infarction 903 TABLE 2. Influence of Stroke TOAST Subtype on Rates of Favorable and Very Favorable Outcomes at 3 Months After Stroke* TOAST Subtype No. (%) of Patients Treated With ORG 10172 No. (%) of Patients Treated With Placebo P Odds Ratio (95% CI) 1.77 (1.04–3.03) Favorable Outcome Atherosclerosis† 77/113 (68.1) 64/117 (54.7) 0.04 Cardioembolism 97/143 (67.8) 85/123 (69.1) 0.82 0.94 (0.56–1.59) 144/158 (91.1) 134/148 (90.5) 0.86 1.07 (0.49–2.34) 11/13 (84.6) 14/17 (82.4) 0.87 1.18 (0.16–8.60) 150/210 (71.4) 167/226 (73.9) 0.56 0.88 (0.58–1.35) Small vessel† Other cause Undetermined Very Favorable Outcomes Atherosclerosis† 49/113 (43.4) 34/117 (29.1) 0.02 1.87 (1.08–3.22) Cardioembolism 69/143 (48.3) 58/123 (47.2) 0.86 1.04 (0.64–1.69) Small vessel† 93/158 (58.9) 93/148 (62.8) 0.48 0.85 (0.53–1.34) 7/13 (53.8) 10/17 (58.8) 0.79 0.82 (0.19–3.59) 97/210 (46.2) 101/226 (44.7) 0.75 1.06 (0.73–1.55) Other cause Downloaded from http://stroke.ahajournals.org/ by guest on June 16, 2017 Undetermined *The TOAST (Trial of ORG 10172 [danaparoid sodium, the low-molecular-weight heparinoid] in Acute Stroke Treatment) subtypes are determined by the Clinical Coordinating Center. CI indicates confidence interval. †Atherosclerosis refers to large-artery atherosclerosis and small-vessel to small-artery occlusive disease (lacuna). tomography, Miller Fisher first sponsored the term “lacune” and the impression that lacunes are caused by a specific lesion called lipohyalinosis, conditioned by vascular hypertension.11–14 He further came to believe, “These data support the proposition that small penetrating branch artery disease tends to occur where it gives rise to symptoms rather than being distributed by chance.” In his 1991 review, he claimed to have defined 70, although only 65 specific syndromes are listed, and several of these are multiple-lesion or redundant.15 Here he also opined “MRI has made dependence on clinical detail more or less obsolete.” General use of computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging has made certain that little lesions are not always associated with acute symptoms, and that the syndromes do not always meet rigidly prescribed clinical patterns.14,16 Miller Fisher’s careful pathological observations in 22 new “lacunar infarcts” included only 4 with lipohyalinosis.15 Four empty-vessel cases were presumed to represent lysed emboli, rather than spasm or other mechanism. The other 14 cases included “stenosing atheroma with super-imposed thrombus, 5; stenosing atheroma, 5; mural atheroma of the basilar artery, 2; microaneurysm, 1; and inconclusive, 1.” Evidently there is no longer a specific vascular occlusive pathology of little strokes. Jackson and Sudlow now show that there are no specific clinical risk factors.2 It follows that smallness of lesion by clinical estimate or imaging is the only criterion for lacunes. The best common sense hypothesis for the prevalence of small strokes is that simply because they are very narrow, the tiny lumina of myriad small terminal arteries/arterioles are most readily brought to complete occlusion by any partial obstruction: atheroma, or clot, or circulating detritus. TOAST provides no rationale for arbitrarily limiting the lacune label to crosssectional diameters less than 1.5 cm. Stroke of other determined etiology solicits a vote for long-shot risk-factor diseases involving blood vessels or coagulation that require exclusion of the more common conditions. Unproven, such cases may offer excuse for therapeutic failure or complication. Nevertheless, there are too few to complicate most large-scale clinical studies anyway. Stroke of undetermined etiology is the uncontroversial democratic vote of maximal insecurity, either too poor or too rich; incomplete or absent basis for exculpation of a cause, or conversely, 2 or more adequate but mutually exclusive causes. It would not be fair to vote for one or the other. (Cf. kindergarten simile.) We accept the hope that therapeutic efficacy may differ among various sorts of pathology. Different strokes may need different pokes. But the fact is that every clinician’s best operational diagnosis is based on integration of hard data, some measurable with real numbers: chronological history of symptom details, clinical examination, and laboratory and imaging data. The specious character of TOAST is the translation of a majority guess into an autonomous causal power, a factoid, “an invented fact believed to be true because of its appearance in print.”17 Even a 0.05 correlation coefficient between phenomenon X and some aspect of stroke does not become a scientifically proven cause by endowing the association with the pejorative title of risk factor. “Impression” is not the singular form of the noun “data.” Consistently reliable guessing provides no proof of validity. After a decade of the routine TOAST classification system, we question whether it has contributed to the efficacy of stroke treatment or prevention. Instead of including the intervening variable of each clinician’s analogical estimate, we submit that it is valid, and essentially more reliable, to record for each case the original data points, a computerized census of the bases of each operational diagnosis. Without prejudice regarding mechanism, it is now possible to measure the volume and vascular location of every stroke, including dynamic magnetic reso- 904 Stroke April 2005 Downloaded from http://stroke.ahajournals.org/ by guest on June 16, 2017 nance imaging variant techniques.18 –22 Correlations can be sought only after the facts are recorded. Retrievable details of interest beyond age and sex might include duration of onset, stepwise or continuous, multiple lesions in brain or other organs, specific nature of cardiac abnormalities, stroke adjacent to or away from previous infarction, severity details of systemic disease like hypertension and diabetes, ad infinitum and ad libitum. Cholesterol can be spared.23,24 As Toole points out, stroke investigators have neglected modern opportunities for neuropathological auditing of disease process and therapeutic endeavors. For example, several studies have indicated that microhemorrhage may be associated with ischemic infarction.25–29 Is there anything different about the brains of patients who have gross hemorrhage from tissue plasminogen activator treatment?30 To our knowledge, no one has looked. In the last decade or so, our colleagues in neurology who are concerned with dementia, movement disorders, and multiple sclerosis have accomplished powerful conceptual and practical new information by aggressive recruitment of autopsy material. The unfortunate fact is that many stroke patients do not survive long.31–33 Whether they die in acute hospital, nursing facility, or home, early or late, how does their neuropathological status relate to their intensive clinical evaluation and therapeutic effort? Patients and families are certain to cooperate if solicited with sincerity and grace. The predominant know-it-all separation of clinical stroke specialists from the fine tissue neuropathology of stroke seems to us to be improvident, if not unforgivable. We welcome Dr Toole’s hopeful prediction. William M. Landau, MD Abdullah Nassief, MD Department of Neurology Washington University School of Medicine Saint Louis, Mo References 1. Toole JF. Stroke research and the 21st century. Arch Neurol. 2000;57:55. 2. Jackson C, Sudlow C. Are lacunar strokes really different? A systematic review of differences in risk factor profiles between lacunar and nonlacunar infarcts. Stroke. 2005;36:891–901. 3. Adams Jr, HP, Bendixen BH, Kapelle LJ, Biller J, Love BB, Gordon DL, Marsh EE 3rd. Classification of subtype of acute ischemic stroke: definitions for use in a multicenter clinical trial. Stroke. 1993;24:35– 41. 4. 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J Clin Epidemiology. 2003;56:262–268. Editorial Comment−− Time to Burn the TOAST William M. Landau and Abdullah Nassief Stroke. 2005;36:902-904 Downloaded from http://stroke.ahajournals.org/ by guest on June 16, 2017 Stroke is published by the American Heart Association, 7272 Greenville Avenue, Dallas, TX 75231 Copyright © 2005 American Heart Association, Inc. All rights reserved. Print ISSN: 0039-2499. Online ISSN: 1524-4628 The online version of this article, along with updated information and services, is located on the World Wide Web at: http://stroke.ahajournals.org/content/36/4/902 Permissions: Requests for permissions to reproduce figures, tables, or portions of articles originally published in Stroke can be obtained via RightsLink, a service of the Copyright Clearance Center, not the Editorial Office. 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