OPEN RANGE
Third Quarter 2016
Frontier Financial Credit Union Newsletter
The Authentic Difference
Why do over 217 million people worldwide choose credit unions?
Because credit unions have a “people-first” philosophy that impels them
to constantly improve the communities and lives of their members.
As cooperative and democratic financial institutions, credit unions’
success depends on the success of their members and their community.
Your best interest is in our best
interest. This October 20th,
Frontier Financial Credit Union will join 57,000 credit unions from 105
countries and their 217 million members to celebrate International Credit
Union Day®.
Credit unions strive to make the world a better place for their members
by offering affordable rates and high quality service that simplify their
lives and empower them to meet their financial goals. Visit us at Frontier
Financial Credit Union to learn more about how credit unions fuel a force
of global good.
In This Issue

The Authentic Difference

Stocks and Presidential
Elections

Join Our Board of
Directors

Contact Information

Financial Statistics

Privacy Information
Stocks & Presidential Elections
What does history tell us – and should we value it?
As an investor, you know that past performance is
no guarantee of future success. Expanding that truth, history has no
bearing on the future of Wall Street.
That said, stock market historians have repeatedly analyzed market
behavior in presidential election years, and what stocks do when
Provided by Joanna Moran,
Certified Financial Planner
Overall, election
years have been
decent for the blue
chips.
different parties hold the reins of power in Washington. They have
Opening a very wide
noticed some interesting patterns through the years, which may or
historical window, the
may not prove true for 2016.
Dow has averaged nearly
Do stocks really go through an “election cycle” every four years?
a 6% gain in election
years since 1833. Across
The numbers really don’t point to any kind of pattern. (Some analysts contend that stocks
that same time frame, it
follow a common pattern during an election year; more about that in a bit.)
has averaged a 10.4%
In price return terms, the S&P 500 has gained an average of 6.1% in election years, going
back to 1948, compared to 8.8% in any given year. The index has posted a yearly gain in
76% of presidential election years starting in 1948, however, as opposed to 71% in other
years. Of course, much of this performance could be chalked up to macroeconomic factors
having nothing to do with a presidential race.1
Many election years have seen solid advances for the small caps.
The average price return of the Russell 2000 is 10.9% in election years going back to 1980,
with a yearly gain occurring 78% of the time.1
Do stocks respond if a particular party has control of Congress?
A little data from InvesTech Research will help to answer that. InvesTech studied S&P 500
yearly returns since 1928 and found that the S&P returned an average of 16.9% in the two
years after a presidential election when the White House and Congress were controlled by
the same party. In the 2-year stretches after a presidential election, when Congress was
controlled by the party that didn’t occupy the White House, the price return of the S&P
averaged 15.6%. When control of Congress was split – regardless of who was President –
the S&P only returned an average of 5.5% in those 2-year periods.2
Could stock market performance actually influence the election?
An InvesTech analysis seems to draw a correlation, however mysterious, between S&P 500
performance and whether the incumbent party retains control of the White House.
- continued on page 4
gain in “year three” –
years preceding election
years.2
Join our Board of Directors
At Frontier Financial CU, we take pride in knowing that our organization is owned by
the very group it is dedicated to serving – the members. Every great organization
has a great team of leaders dedicating their time and effort to making it an even
better place. And we are fortunate to have a knowledgeable and skillful group of
people who serve on our volunteer Board of Directors.
YOU are the boss at
your credit union.
And we mean it.
That is why every
decision we make as a
credit union is with you –
Your credit union’s volunteer Board of Directors is responsible for the lineup of
products and services offered, the price of those products and services, and
maintaining the founding principles of the credit union through ethical and sound
business practices. These directors represent you and other members by setting
policy and strategic direction for the credit union.
Each year, Frontier Financial members in good standing are invited to apply for a
position on the Board of Directors. Board service is a voluntary, two-year
commitment. If you are interested in volunteering your time to serve as a Board
Member, please send us information about yourself (150 words or less) no later than
December 31, 2016. Include your educational background, employment history and
positions held, plus any credentials or experience that would benefit you as a Board
Member. Please send to:
Chairman Nominating Committee
Frontier Financial Credit Union
P.O. Box 20700
Reno, NV 89515-0700
our member – in mind.
Stocks & Presidential Elections
- continued from page 2
There have been 22 presidential elections since 1928. In those 22 years, the incumbent
party won the White House 86% of the time when the S&P advanced during the three
months preceding Election Day. When the S&P lost ground in the three months prior to
the election, the incumbent party lost the White House 88% of the time. Of course, other
factors may have been considerably more influential in these elections, such as a given
president’s approval rating and the unemployment rate. 2
Annual returns aside, is there a mini-cycle that hits stocks in the typical
election year?
Some analysts insist so, with the cycle unfolding like this: stocks gain momentum during
primary season, rally strongly as the presumptive nominees appear and party conventions occur, and then go sideways or south in November and December. 3
There might be something to this assertion, at least in terms of S&P 500 performance.
A FactSet/Wall Street Journal analysis shows that, in election years starting in 1980, the
S&P has advanced an average of 4.9% in the period between when a presumptive
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Visit us on the web at
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nominee is declared and Election Day. After Election Day in these nine years, it declined
Financial Statistics for Month
Ended July 31, 2016
about half a percent on average.3
Shares
How much weight does history ultimately hold?
Perhaps not much. It is intriguing, and some analysts would instruct you to pay more
$38,691,218
Share CD
$694,444
Draft
$18,376,871
Money Market
$14,012,001
Total Shares
$71,774,534
Loans
$56,432,500
Investments
$15,307,835
attention to it rather than less. Historical “norms” are easily upended, though. Take 2008,
the election year that brought us a bear market disaster. The year 2000 also brought an
S&P 500 loss. While a presidential election undoubtedly affects Wall Street every four
years, it is just one of many factors in determining a year’s market performance. 1
Joanna Moran may be reached at 775.824.8006 or [email protected]. Please visit
renoretirementplanner.com for more information.
This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates.
This information has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no
guarantee of future results. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is
needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment,
tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are
unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.
Citations.
1 - marketwatch.com/story/2016-predictions-what-presidential-election-years-mean-for-stocks-2015-12-29 [12/29/15]
2 - kiplinger.com/article/investing/T043-C008-S003-how-presidential-elections-affect-the-stock-market.html [2/16]
3 - tinyurl.com/j82mg4c [6/12/16]
Joanna Moran is a registered representative offering securities and investment advisory services through Cetera
Advisor Networks LLC, member FINRA/SIPC. Cetera is under separate ownership from any other named entity.
Registered address: 5200 Neil Rd, Reno, NV 89502 • 775.824.8006. Investments are not deposits; Not NCUSIF Insured; Not
Insured by any Federal Government Agency. No credit union guarantee. May lose value.
Reserves
Assets
Members
$6,409,110
$78,894,996
7,026
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collect, share, and protect your
personal information. Our privacy
policy has not changed and you
may review our policy and
practices with respect to your
personal information at
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you call us at 775.829.2070.
32006-NEWS-092016