Diversity and Distributions, (Diversity Distrib.) (2008) 14, 95–105 Blackwell Publishing Ltd BIODIVERSITY RESEARCH Species richness patterns of obligate subterranean beetles (Insecta: Coleoptera) in a global biodiversity hotspot – effect of scale and sampling intensity Maja Zagmajster1*, David C. Culver2, Boris Sket1 1 Department of Biology, Biotechnical Faculty, University of Ljubljana, Vecna pot 111, PO Box 2995, SI-1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia, 2 Department of Biology, American University, 4400 Massachusetts Avenue, NW Washington DC 20016, USA *Correspondence: Maja Zagmajster, Department of Biology, Biotechnical Faculty, University of Ljubljana, Veçna pot 111, PO Box 2995, SI-1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia. Tel.: +386-1-4233388; Fax: +386-1-2573390; E-mail: [email protected] ABSTRACT We studied species richness patterns of obligate subterranean (troglobiotic) beetles in the Dinaric karst of the western Balkans, using five grid sizes with cells of 80 × 80, 40 × 40, 20 × 20, 10 × 10, and 5 × 5 km. The same two hotspots could be recognized at all scales, although details differed. Differences in sampling intensity were not sufficient to explain these patterns. Correlations between number of species and number of sampled localities increased with increasing cell size. Additional species are expected to be found in the region, as indicated by jackknife 1, jackknife 2, Chao2, bootstrap, and incidence-based coverage (ICE) species richness estimators. All estimates increased with increasing cell size, except Chao2, with the lowest prediction at the intermediate 20 × 20 km cell size. Jackknife 2 and ICE gave highest estimates and jackknife 1 and bootstrap the lowest. Jackknife 1 and bootstrap estimates changed least with cell size, while the number of single cell species increased. In the highly endemic subterranean fauna with many rare species, bootstrap may be most appropriate to consider. Positive autocorrelation of species numbers was highest at 20 × 20 km scale, so we used this cell size for further analyses. At this scale we added 137 localities with less positional accuracy to 1572 previously considered, and increased 254 troglobiotic species considered to 276. Previously discovered hotspots and their positions did not change, except for a new species-rich cell which appeared in the south-eastern region. There are two centres of troglobiotic species richness in the Dinaric karst. The one in the north-west exhibited high species richness of Trechinae (Carabidae), while in the south-east, the Leptodirinae (Cholevidae) were much more diverse. These centres of species richness should serve as the starting point for establishing a conservation network of important subterranean areas in Dinaric karst. Keywords Biodiversity, Dinaric karst, optimal cell size, sampling intensity, scale, subterranean beetles. The Dinaric karst in the western Balkan Peninsula is a global hotspot of subterranean biodiversity, with more than 900 aquatic and terrestrial obligate subterranean (troglobiotic) species recorded (Sket, 2005a). However, spatial patterns of species richness within the region are poorly known. Sket et al. (2004) indicate that the western Balkans are the richest area of the Balkans, within which the north-west part (Slovenia) is especially rich. Diversity studies were mostly based on species lists for the countries or larger geographical subunits within them, and areas of equivalent size have not been compared (Guéorguiev, 1977; Sket, 1999a,b, 2005a; Sket et al., 2004). The same applies to the knowledge on diversity of separate troglobiotic groups – none has been studied in detail. Troglobiotic beetles are considered the most important contributors to terrestrial subterranean biodiversity in most temperate karst regions, including the Dinaric karst, where they present about 42% of the terrestrial troglobionts (Sket et al., 2004). They make an ideal group for such analyses, with relatively many published references on their taxonomy and distribution. When mapping species richness, the problem of finding suitable scale for analyses needs to be addressed (Stoms, 1994). Individual caves may seem appropriate as the basic sample unit for comparisons. However, they vary widely in size, and, more importantly, when considered individually, each one harbours only a small part of © 2007 The Authors Journal compilation © 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd DOI: 10.1111/j.1472-4642.2007.00423.x www.blackwellpublishing.com/ddi INTRODUCTION 95 M. Zagmajster et al. Figure 1 Map of the study area and demonstration of subsequent divisions of larger grid cells into smaller ones. Line delimits the border of Dinarides; points present sampled subterranean localities with beetles. One point can present more localities, if their position was determined by the same centroid (Lambert Conformal Conical Projection). the subterranean fauna of a karstic region (Gibert & Culver, 2005). Even the world richest cave, Postojna Planina Cave System (Culver & Sket, 2000), where 84 species were known in 2005 (Sket, 2005a), represented only 9% of the troglobiotic species in the whole Dinarides, and around 32% of the species of the Slovenian portion (Sket et al., 2004; Sket, 2005a). Individual species-rich caves are also insufficient for establishing spatial correlation patterns, because there are relatively few of them. A few studies of subterranean fauna have used equally sized cells to standardize the area of comparison (Krow & Culver, 2001; Culver et al., 2004a,b; Christman et al., 2005; Deharveng et al., in press; Ferreira et al., 2007). But only rarely has the effect of different sampling unit size on the spatial pattern been considered (Krow & Culver, 2001; Christman et al., 2005), and sampling unit size was not the focus of these studies. If the basic sample cells are too large, the regional patterns and details are lost, but if the cells are too small, the data are over-scattered (Noonan, 1999; Hausdorf & Hennig, 2003; Fortin & Dale, 2005). Sampling adequacy is a problem in biodiversity studies, especially evident in subterranean habitats. Even in the comparatively well researched area such as the Dinaric karst in Slovenia, less than 10% of known caves had been sampled faunistically by 2000 (Culver et al., 2004a). New caves are being discovered every year, and they are mainly not faunistically investigated. Even when nearly all caves have been sampled, as was the case in a 5 km2 area in West Virginia (Schneider & Culver, 2004), sampling within caves was apparently not complete – species accumulation curves did not reach an asymptote. Still, locations of hotspots of subterranean species richness in Slovenian Dinaric karst remained the same as new data in subsequent time periods were added (Culver et al., 2004a). 96 In this study we investigated several aspects of biodiversity patterns of troglobiotic beetles in Dinaric karst. First, we looked for optimal sample cell size, by comparing patterns of species richness and estimated species numbers at five different scales, ranging from 25 km2 to 6400 km2. We initially used the subset of records that met the criteria of minimal positional accuracy, to ensure highest probability that they were delimited to correct cells also at smallest scale. Second, we mapped numbers of sampled localities to investigate the sampling intensity patterns at all scales. Third, we determined the optimal quadrat size by comparing spatial autocorrelations at different sizes, and find the scale with the largest spatial autocorrelation. Fourth, we investigated the impact of adding more data to the patterns observed, by including records with less accurately positioned localities at the optimal quadrat size. Finally, we identified hotspots of species richness and described their taxonomic nature and the effect of sampling intensity. METHODS Study area and preparation of data The Dinarides or Dinaric Alps, situated in the western Balkan Peninsula, are about a 600 km long and 150 km wide set of mountain ridges of more than 56,000 km2, near the Adriatic sea (Sket, 2005a). Our research area covers the whole Dinaric area, with small portions excluded (Fig. 1). Only in the north-western part, where Dinarides neighbour the eastern part of Southern Calcareous Alps, is the boundary for the Dinarides ambiguous. This is sometimes differently assessed, as there are also patches of isolated karst in between. We followed the delimitation in Slovenia © 2007 The Authors Diversity and Distributions, 14, 95–105, Journal compilation © 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd Hotspots of obligate subterranean beetles diversity according to the recent map of karst regions by Gams (2003), and in the rest of the study area according to Oppitz & Mardesic (1961). Dinardes are built mainly from carbonate rocks (mostly limestone, also dolomite), which enabled the formation of numerous underground caves and voids. Just in the Slovenian Dinaric portion of about 7000 km2, more than 5700 caves were registered in 2005 (Slovenian Cave Cadastre, Institute for Karst Research, Postojna). In Croatia, more than 7500 (Gottstein Matoçec et al., 2002) and in Bosnia and Herzegovina more than 4000 (Mulaomerovic et al., 2006) have been registered. The total number of caves for the whole Dinarides is not known, but it is likely to be more than 20,000. We focused our research on troglobiotic beetles from two families: Carabidae (subfamily Trechinae) and Cholevidae (subfamily Leptodirinae or Bathysciinae). Some authors (e.g. Perreau, 2000) classify the latter as the tribe Leptodirini, subfamily Cholevinae, of the family Leiodidae. The majority of the troglobiotic beetles are members of these two groups, while of the rest only the Pselaphidae with about 20 troglobiotic species are numerically important (Sket et al., 2004; Sket, 2005a). Defining whether a beetle species is troglobiotic or not is often not unambiguous, as morphological features, typical for subterranean environments (troglomorphies), are not always present in species known only from caves. In the case that a species is known mostly from caves, or if it was recognized as obligate subterranean in published reference, we considered it a troglobiont. That is, we used an ecological rather than a morphological criterion. We followed the delineation of species of recent catalogues for Trechinae (Moravec et al., 2003) and Leptodirinae (Perreau, 2000), and added some recently described species. There are several major works on the distribution of subterranean beetles in the Dinarides, with extensive reviews prepared by Pretner for Croatia (Pretner, 1973; Jalzic & Pretner, 1977), Montenegro (Pretner, 1977), Slovenia (E. Pretner, unpublished manuscript), and Bosnia and Hercegovina (E. Pretner, unpublished data cards). Additional data on troglobiotic species distribution were collected from more than 85 literature sources for Dinaric karst, resulting in more than 4300 records organized in the form of a relational database in Microsoft Access©. Localities were identified according to the descriptions in the literature sources, where they were given with different level of precision. We used different database and map sources (a complete list is given in Zagmajster et al., 2006) to get geographical coordinates of the localities. Positional accuracy of the localities was determined according to the accuracy of its description in the literature as well as of the map where the coordinates were taken from. When the exact position of the locality could not be determined, coordinates of the centroid of the wider circular area, where the locality occurs, were determined. Localities were associated with the grid cell that contained the centroid. To increase the probability of correct classification into cells, we set the maximum radius for a locality to be included according to the smallest grid size with the following rules – (1) the radius was not greater than the side of the cell, and (2) the probability that the locality was actually present in the grid cell with the centroid was always higher than the probability of its presence in any of the neighbouring cells. In the first data set for our analyses, where we used smallest cells of 5 × 5 km, we included only localities for which the position was determined with the centroid of the circle radius of 3 km or less. As a consequence of limiting our data set with such criterion, some troglobiotic beetle species had to be discarded. In the second data set, which was used in larger grid cells, we included localities with positional accuracy of 6 km or less. This allowed inclusion of additional species, but still five troglobiotic beetle species present in the area had to be discarded, due to poorly defined localities in original literature sources. The study region of the Dinaric karst was presented in the Lambert Conformal Conical Projection (central meridian 18°, standard parallels 42° and 46°), which presents the territory with least distortion (Zagmajster et al., 2006). We covered the research area by equal cell size quadratic networks, getting grids of five different sizes: 80 × 80 km, 40 × 40 km, 20 × 20 km, 10 × 10 km, and 5 × 5 km (Fig. 1). Data analysis In the first part of the analysis, we prepared maps of species numbers per cell at all five cell sizes. We defined a cell as a hotspot, if it contained at least 85% of the richest cell species number. We chose this class limit, because we wanted to observe the highest peaks of species richness, relative to the characteristics of species numbers distribution within the region observed. Second class contained at least 60% and the third at least 30% of the richest cell, fourth class contained more than one, and the last exactly one species. We used the applications of the program package arcgis, version 9.1 (ESRI©, Redlands, CA, USA). We calculated three measures of species number distribution, by including four neighbouring cells that share the same side (referred to as ‘rook’, Fortin & Dale, 2005). We calculated ‘join-count’ statistics to test whether occurrence of species in cells is random. If the observed joins of cells with the records and cell without (referred to as black-white joins) are smaller than would be expected, the pattern is not random (Fortin & Dale, 2005). We used package ‘spdep’ for the statistical software r (http://www.r-project.org). Spatial autocorrelation of species abundance data is dependent on the sample cell size (Fortin, 1999), which can be used in choosing the suitable basic unit for analyses. We tested autocorrelation of data on species numbers with Moran’s I and Geary’s c indices. Positive autocorrelation means that the data are clustered, and if it is negative, the data have dispersed pattern (Fortin & Dale, 2005). The size at which the autocorrelation is strongest is the most suitable for analyses (Fortin & Dale, 2005), which was already implemented in the set of subterranean data (Zagmajster et al., 2006). Significance was tested according to the values, calculated from 1000 Monte Carlo permutations. We used the freeware Add-In application for Excel (Microsoft) Rookcase.xla (Sawada, 1999) and ArcGIS (ESRI©). We calculated species accumulation curves based on Mau Tau values to compare sampling completeness at all different cell sizes (Colwell, 2005). Local richness can be estimated by using nonparametric techniques based on distribution of species among samples (Colwell & Coddington, 1994). We employed five estimators: © 2007 The Authors Diversity and Distributions, 14, 95–105, Journal compilation © 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd 97 M. Zagmajster et al. jackknife 1 and 2 (Burnham & Overton, 1978, 1979; Heltshe & Forrester, 1983; Smith & van Belle, 1984), Chao2 (Chao, 1984, 1987), bootstrap (Smith & van Belle, 1984), and ICE (incidence-based coverage estimator) (Lee & Chao, 1994; Chazdon et al., 1998; Chao et al., 2000). Calculating procedures were made with 100 randomizations of sampling order, using the freeware program EstimateS, version 7.52 (Colwell, 2005). We evaluated the effect of sampling intensity in searching for troglobiotic beetles by considering the number of localities, where subterranean beetles were sampled. We also included cave localities, where only non-troglobiotic beetle species were reported because this indicated that the cave had been sampled for beetles. There may be differences among localities as a result of different numbers of times they were visited or different collectors’ efforts, but this information is rarely reported and could not be used. To investigate the effect of sampling intensity on the species richness patterns observed, we mapped the distribution of number of sampled localities at all cell sizes and used the same percentage delineation of classes as in case of species richness. We investigated the relationship between number of species and localities per sample cell by calculating the Spearman’s correlation coefficients. We used statistical software spss, version 14 (SPSS Inc., Chicago, IL, USA). Finally, we mapped data for troglobiotic beetles from the families together and separately at the optimal cell size. The dependence of number of species from number of sampled localities was investigated with linear regression analysis. We mapped also subset of localities, where at least one troglobiotic beetle was sampled, to compare this pattern to the species richness pattern of troglobiotic beetle subfamilies. RESULTS Number of species In the Dinaric karst area, we identified 282 troglobiotic beetle species from the two subfamilies we studied (Table 1). Seventy percent of them belong to the Leptodirinae and 30% to the Trechinae. According to the criteria of positional accuracy, 254 troglobiotic species were considered in the first data set, and 276 species in the second. Five species with corresponding five poorly defined localities and one species with dubious locality were not included in the analyses. Trechinae (Carabidae) No. of all troglobiotic species First data set No. of species No. of localities Second data set No. of species No. of localities 98 Leptodirinae (Cholevidae) More than 84% of all sampled localities contained at least one troglobiotic beetle of the studied subfamilies (Table 1). Less than one third of localities with troglobiotic beetles considered contained representatives of both subfamilies (383 within the first and 404 within the second data set). Observed and estimated species richness at different grid cell sizes Distribution of richness of troglobiotic beetles shows roughly the same general pattern at all different grid cell sizes (Fig. 2). Cells with highest species numbers are always situated close to the extreme north-west and south-east of Dinarides. Positions of the richer cells identified at the smallest size are for the most part included in the larger richer cells, even though this is not always the case. The discrepancy is especially evident if patterns at 10 × 10 and 20 × 20 km are compared. Cells in the middle Dinaric area that are ranked into second class at 10 × 10 km size are merged into cells of lower class at 20 × 20 km. This shows that other merged cells contained either the same species or none at all. The opposite effect, when new cells of high species richness appeared with increase in the cell size, can be observed. Merging 10 × 10 km cells of low species richness in extreme north-western Dinarides into a 20 × 20 km cell resulted in a species-rich cell. A similar result was obtained when 20 × 20 km cells in north-eastern Bosnia and Herzegovina are merged into a 40 × 40 km cell. In these cases, merged cells contained different species, and their sum presented higher portion of species number of the richest cell at larger scale. Observed frequency of black-white joins was smaller than expected by chance at all grid cell sizes (Table 2), so data are clustering (Christman et al., 2005; Fortin & Dale, 2005). The difference between expected and observed frequency was largest at the 20 × 20 km cell. The statistics could not be calculated for the largest grid network, as all cells had a species and no black-white joins could be observed. Moran’s I and Geary’s c indices of autocorrelation expressed the same trends at different sizes of grid cells (Table 3, see Appendix S1 in Supplementary Material). At the smallest cell size of 5 × 5 km, values of autocorrelation are lowest (Fortin & Dale, 2005). The strength of positive autocorrelation is gradually increasing, reaching its maximum value at the cell size of 20 × 20 km. As sample cells become larger than 20 × 20 km, the strength of autocorrelation decreases. Both groups All sampled localities 83 199 282 77 733 177 977 254 1329 1572 80 791 196 1058 276 1445 1709 Table 1 Number of troglobiotic beetle species of two species-rich subfamilies and number of sampled localities with beetles in Dinaric karst. The first data set includes records with localities of positional accuracy of 3 km or less, and the second with 6 km or less. © 2007 The Authors Diversity and Distributions, 14, 95–105, Journal compilation © 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd Hotspots of obligate subterranean beetles diversity Figure 2 Distribution of troglobiotic beetle species number in Dinaric karst at different grid cell sizes: (a) 80 × 80, (b) 40 × 40, (c) 20 × 20, (d) 10 × 10, (e) 5 × 5 km. Included are records with localities of positional accuracy of 3 km or less, including 254 species (Lambert Conformal Conical Projection). Table 2 Frequency of black-white joins of troglobiotic beetles presence in the Dinaric karst per sample cells of different size. Considered are records with localities of positional accuracy of 3 km or less, including 254 species. All the values are statistically significant (P < 0.001). Table 3 Moran’s I and Geary’s c indices for number of troglobiotic beetles per sample cells of different size. Considered are records with localities of positional accuracy of 3 km or less, including 254 species. All values are statistically significant (P < 0.05 at 80 × 80 km and P < 0.001 at the rest). Cell size (km × km) Observed frequency Expected frequency Cell size (km × km) Moran’s I Geary’s c 80 × 80 40 × 40 20 × 20 10 × 10 05 × 05 0 0.192 0.286 0.233 0.120 / 0.397 0.499 0.357 0.169 80 × 80 40 × 40 20 × 20 10 × 10 05 × 05 0.233 0.472 0.527 0.442 0.366 0.638 0.539 0.511 0.584 0.649 Species accumulation curves, calculated from presence of individual species in the sample cells of different sizes, did not reach an asymptote at any cell size (Fig. 3). The slope of the curves did get less steep, as the cells got smaller. Estimations of species richness differed among predictors, as well as at different cell sizes (Table 4). The lowest predicted values are given by bootstrap estimator, which is also least dependent on the sample size used. Values of jackknife 1 and jackknife 2 rise gradually until 20 × 20 km cell size, after which the values of jackknife 2 get much higher. Change in the ICE estimator is most apparent, with large jump in predicted values at cells larger than 20 × 20 km. At smaller cell sizes, the highest estimates are given by jackknife 2, while at larger sizes the highest estimates are from ICE (see Appendix S2 in Supplementary Material). Only Chao2 species estimator exhibits a different pattern with increase in cell size (see Appendix S3 in Supplementary Material). At the cell size of 20 × 20 km, it reaches lower value than at the 10 × 10 km cell. The number of single cell species is very high already at the smallest scale (representing 109 or 42.9% of all species) and increases substantially with cell size (up to 179 or 70.4% of all species studied) (Fig. 4). The number of species, represented in exactly two cells (duplicates), is highest at the cell size of 20 × 20 km (reaching 56 species). Sampling intensity at different grid cell sizes Cells with highest sampling intensity are situated at the northwestern Dinaric karst at all grid sizes except the smallest one © 2007 The Authors Diversity and Distributions, 14, 95–105, Journal compilation © 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd 99 M. Zagmajster et al. Table 4 Values of species number estimators for troglobiotic beetle diversity in Dinaric karst per sample cells of different size. Considered are records with localities of positional accuracy of 3 km or less, including 254 species. Percentage increase of the observed species numbers is given in parentheses. Cell size (km × km) Jackknife 1 Jackknife 2 Chao2 80 × 80 40 × 40 20 × 20 10 × 10 05 × 05 426.12 408.93 383.33 370.70 362.82 551.47 515.69 456.85 444.43 431.67 587.01 500.63 400.34 407.83 397.33 (67.76%) (61.00%) (50.92%) (45.94%) (42.84%) (117.11%) (103.03%) (79.86%) (74.97%) (69.95%) ICE (131.11%) (97.10%) (57.61%) (60.56%) (56.43%) 729.58 582.07 451.56 403.03 381.70 Bootstrap (187.24%) (129.16%) (77.78%) (58.67%) (50.28%) 324.84 318.91 310.63 304.72 301.29 (27.89%) (25.56%) (22.30%) (19.97%) (18.62%) ICE, incidence-based coverage estimator. Figure 3 Species accumulation curves for troglobiotic beetles in Dinaric karst for different grid cell sizes. Considered are records with localities of positional accuracy of 3 km or less, including 254 species. (Fig. 5). At the largest 80 × 80 km cells, the richest cell contains such a large number of localities, that there is no other cell that would contain more than 60% of this number (none can be classified into second class). As the cell size decreases, cells with high number of sampled localities appear at the south-eastern Dinarides. The pattern demonstrates that north-western parts of the Dinarides are better sampled than the rest. The number of sampled localities in the middle Dinarides in Croatia is comparable to other areas except for Slovenia, but there are unsampled areas especially at the western borders of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Fig. 5). The relationship between number of species and number of localities changes as the cell size increases. Correlation among number of species and number of localities increases and begins levelling off at the largest cells (see Appendix S4 in Supplementary Material). When the maps of species and localities numbers distribution are compared (Figs 2 and 5), only some of the highly sampled cells overlap with species-rich cells. There are many cells where sampling intensity is at a comparable rate, but differences in species richness among them are very high. Examples of that can be found especially in south-western Dinarides. Overall, sampling intensity cannot explain the species richness pattern. Species richness patterns of troglobiotic beetles Mapping of species richness and sampled localities distribution at different scales shows that the pattern depends on the scale size 100 Figure 4 Number of unique (present in exactly one sample cell) and duplicate (present in exactly two sample cells) species of troglobiotic beetles in Dinaric karst per different grid cell sizes. Considered are records with localities of positional accuracy of 3 km or less, including 254 species. we use. Spatial autocorrelation of species numbers among cells is highest at the cell size of 20 × 20 km, so we used this cell size for further analyses (Fortin & Dale, 2005; Zagmajster et al., 2006). This cell size also permitted us to include less precise localities in the analysis. We mapped the species and sampled localities numbers using the expanded data set (Fig. 6). As we included additional species and localities on the map, this did not change positions of the richest cells, discovered at the smaller data set (Figs 2 and 6). However, one new species-rich cell in the south-east Dinarides appeared. Species number estimators gave higher estimations (Table 5), compared to the estimator of the limited set of data (Table 4), but percentage increase is comparable. Higher absolute number of species is expected to be discovered within the Leptodirinae than Trechinae. We investigated the nature of the richest cells, and mapped the two subfamilies separately (Fig. 7). Their pattern of species richness differ between the two, and the correlation between the number of species of each subfamily is not high (Spearman’s correlation coefficient = 0.484, P < 0.01). The subfamilies exhibit different centres of highest species richness. The hotspots for Trechinae are situated in the north-western Dinarides, while for Leptodirinae species they lie in the south-eastern Dinarides. When the larger data set is considered (Fig. 6), once again overall species pattern cannot be explained by sampling intensity. Only about 54% of variance in species numbers can be © 2007 The Authors Diversity and Distributions, 14, 95–105, Journal compilation © 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd Hotspots of obligate subterranean beetles diversity Figure 5 Distribution of sampling intensity in Dinaric karst per different grid cell size: (a) 80 × 80, (b) 40 × 40, (c) 20 × 20, (d) 10 × 10, (e) 5 × 5 km. Considered are sampled localities of positional accuracy of 3 km or less (Lambert Conformal Conical Projection). Table 5 Values of species number estimators for troglobiotic beetle diversity in Dinaric karst at sample cell size of 20 × 20 km. Considered are records with localities of positional accuracy of 6 km or less, including 276 species. Percentage increase of the observed species numbers is given in parentheses. Trechinae (Carabidae) Leptodirinae (Cholevidae) Both groups Jackknife 1 Jackknife 2 Chao2 ICE Bootstrap 118.72 (48.40%) 297.43 (51.75%) 416.28 (50.83%) 142.48 (78.10%) 354.05 (80.64%) 496.76 (79.99%) 125.98 (57.48%) 307.36 (56.82%) 436.98 (58.33%) 132.75 (65.94%) 350.27 (78.71%) 483.18 (75.07%) 96.74 (20.93%) 240.65 (22.78%) 337.43 (22.26%) ICE, incidence-based coverage estimator. described by number of all sampled localities, and even less if subfamilies are considered separately (Table 6). The overlap among the richest cell in species and number of localities of that subfamily remains very low. This is especially evident in Leptodirinae (Fig. 7), but also in Trechinae. Table 6 Linear regression coefficients of considered troglobiotic beetle species numbers, with number of sampled localities as independent variable. Considered are records with localities of positional accuracy of 6 km or less, including 276 species. All coefficients are statistically significant (P < 0.01). Dependent variable R2 Intercept Slope Trechinae (Carabidae) Leptodirinae (Cholevidae) Both groups 0.491 0.402 0.536 0.459 1.195 1.654 0.111 0.165 0.276 DISCUSSION Pattern of species richness is dependent on scale (Stoms, 1994), a problem that is not often addressed in diversity studies (Whittaker et al., 2005). We could recognize two large areas, where speciesrich cells appeared, at all grid sizes, but we wanted to locate richest areas with higher precision. Calculating the strength of autocorrelation among species numbers at all scales proved useful in this regard (Fortin & Dale, 2005; Zagmajster et al., 2006). A cell size of 20 × 20 km seemed to be optimal, according to strength of black-white joins and highest level of autocorrelation. The number of samples taken from a population affects species estimates, until at certain number of samples they stabilize (Chazdon et al., 1998). With change in the sample cell size in our study, we actually changed also the number of samples from the same population and area studied. With decrease in sample cell © 2007 The Authors Diversity and Distributions, 14, 95–105, Journal compilation © 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd 101 M. Zagmajster et al. Figure 6 Distribution of numbers of troglobiotic beetles considered (a), all sampled localities (b), and localities with troglobiotic beetles (c) in Dinaric karst per grid cell size 20 × 20 km. Considered are records with localities of positional accuracy of 6 km or less, including 276 species (Lambert Conformal Conical Projection). Figure 7 Distribution of number of species of troglobiotic beetle species (S) and sampled localities (L) per Trechinae (a) and Leptodirinae (b) in Dinaric karst per grid cell size 20 × 20 km. Considered are records with localities of positional accuracy of 6 km or less, including 80 Trechinae and 196 Leptodirinae species (Lambert Conformal Conical Projection). size and the resulting increase in number of samples, almost all species richness estimators show some degree of stabilization after 20 × 20 km sample cells. At this cell size, ICE and Jack 2 estimators give similar predicted value, while Chao2 gives lower estimate than at smaller cell. Stabilization of estimators at certain cell size can give additional support to choose it as optimal scale size for the analysis. Even though changing spatial pattern should have insignificant effect on the bias, precision, and accuracy of estimates at the same grid size (Brose et al., 2003), it may be different when sample cell sizes change. In our case, at cell size 20 × 20 km species richness pattern showed highest positive autocorrelation. Estimators calculated at different cells can give further support to choosing optimal cell size for analyses. 102 Five estimators expressed different height of expected species richness. Small differences in uniques and duplicates among different grid cells were observed in the study of Guralnick & van Cleve (2005), who therefore recorded very slight changes of individual estimators at different grid cell sizes. In our data set, unique species present very high part of all species observed, and increased with sample cell size, presenting 42.9% of observed species at smallest sample cells and 70.4% at largest cells. High number of unique species in data set on subterranean fauna can only partly be attributed to inadequacy in sampling (Longino et al., 2002). Cave animals exhibit high levels of endemism (Guéorguiev, 1977; Sket, 1999b; Christman et al., 2005) being known from one site only or having small distribution ranges compared to surface counterparts (Guéorguiev, © 2007 The Authors Diversity and Distributions, 14, 95–105, Journal compilation © 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd Hotspots of obligate subterranean beetles diversity 1977; Trontelj et al., in press). It is therefore highly unlikely that the number of unique species would decrease to near zero with additional sampling effort (Longino et al., 2002). It is actually expected that the number would stabilize at a certain value. Decisions on the choice of the most proper estimator in the analysis can differ according to the data sets used (overview given in Magurran, 2003). For studies of cave fauna, estimators less dependent on rare species may be considered more appropriate. Jackknife 2, Chao2, and ICE included two measures of rarity (numbers of both unique and duplicate species or unique and species present in less than 10 samples) and expressed greatest changes at different sample cell sizes. Similarly, Chazdon et al. (1998) by using the abundance data discovered that Chao2 and ICE performed well at moderate degrees of patchiness of individual species’ distribution (when the number of unique species was low) and less well at higher patchiness (and the number of unique species was higher). Poulin (1998) used computer-simulated parasite communities and discovered that Chao and jackknife estimators were less precise when there were many rare species and overestimated the true richness value. In our study, jackknife 1 increased at a slower pace with increasing sample cell size than jackknife 2, and may be considered more appropriate than the latter. The least dependence on scale and hence the number of rare species in our study was exhibited by the bootstrap estimator. Poulin (1998) has also shown that bootstrapping gave the best estimate when there were rare species present. Because rare species were very numerous in our study, bootstrap may be the most accurate. Sket et al. (2004) reported that the area of highest species richness of terrestrial fauna is situated in the south-eastern Dinarides. This more detailed analysis of troglobiotic beetles only partly supports that statement. Even though the hotspots of beetle diversity do lie in the south-east, there are two larger centres of high troglobiotic beetle richness in Dinaric karst. Contribution of individual subfamilies to these centres is different. Troglobiotic Trechinae are richest in the north-west, while troglobiotic Leptodirinae beetles are most diverse in south-eastern parts. The latter was proposed already by Sket (2005a) and in preliminary spatial analysis by Zagmajster et al. (2006). Correlation between the species numbers of both subfamilies is not strong, and reasons for species richness within both are different. Within Trechinae there is an intense speciation within small amount of genera, while in the Leptodirinae diversification already at the level of genera is much higher. When investigating centres of biodiversity, sampling intensity should be accounted for. If more sampling is done at a certain area, it is expected that more species can be found there. We confirmed that north-western parts in Slovenia are sampled better than others (Culver et al., 2004a). The rest of the Dinarides are sampled at a comparable rate, but there are also some larger unsampled areas. Efforts in sampling cave beetles should focus on less well-sampled areas. But, new species in the area can be discovered not only by sampling new caves, but also by additional sampling of already investigated caves. When patterns of species richness and sampling intensity are compared, they differ. Sampled localities in Croatia and southeastern Dinarides reach comparable numbers, but species richest cells can be found only in the latter. Variation in species numbers can only partly be explained by variation in sampling intensity, and when the two subfamilies are treated separately, variance of their species richness explained by variance in sampling intensity is even smaller. Further on, additional sampling had little effect on hotspots discovered. We simulated new discoveries in the Dinaric karst by adding species and localities with less positional accuracy in the analysis at the optimal cell size. Even though there were some cells, where changes in species richness were substantial, positions of hotspots remained the same. Comparisons of species richness at different time snapshots in the past revealed the same pattern when the number of localities increased (Culver et al., 2004a). There are other influences that could explain species patterns discovered. Palaeogeographical and palaeoclimatic events that influenced dispersal and migrations of ancestors to subterranean realm influence present richness patterns (Guéorguiev, 1977). Habitat availability, like number of all available caves, is related to centres of troglobiotic diversity (Christman & Culver, 2001). It was also proposed that surface primary production should have influence on subterranean biodiversity (Culver et al., 2006). Subterranean habitats mostly lack primary producers (with exceptions of chemoautotrophs in some systems) and are dependent from organic matter income from surface. What is the most important in the case of troglobiotic diversity in Dinaric karst remains to be tested. Despite the Dinaric karst having been recognized a global hotspot according to richness and special elements of its subterranean fauna (Sket, 1999a,b; Sket et al., 2004; Sket, 2005a), there is no unified system of conservation of the unique fauna in this area. Most protection activities are aimed at individual speciesrich caves, and differ among the seven countries where Dinarides are spreading. For example, in Slovenia the troglobiotic beetles along with amphibian Proteus anguinus Laurenti are protected by law at the individual species level, while the rest of the subterranean fauna is protected through general habitat protection of caves (Sket, 2005b). A similar situation is found in Croatia, with individual species protection of all subterranean fauna (Gottstein Matocec et al., 2002). For long-term conservation of cave fauna in whole Dinaric karst, establishment of a network of important subterranean areas in the region is necessary. Choosing the areas should be based on species richness, as well as endemism, rarity, and complementarity (Reyers et al., 2000; Michel et al., in press). Troglobiotic beetles are appropriate group to be regarded as indicator of terrestrial troglobiotic diversity centres in Dinaric karst as well as its karstic surroundings. They present nearly half of the terrestrial troglobiotic fauna (Sket et al., 2004), of which they are considered best-studied group. Hotspots and species richness patterns of troglobiotic beetles in Dinaric karst that we identified present first candidate areas to be included in such network for terrestrial troglobiotic fauna. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We are particularly indebted to late Slovenian speleobiologist Egon Pretner for his extensive work in collecting data on © 2007 The Authors Diversity and Distributions, 14, 95–105, Journal compilation © 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd 103 M. Zagmajster et al. subterranean beetles in Dinaric karst. 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Appendix S4 Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient between number of sampled localities and number of troglobiotic species per cells of different sizes. This material is available as part of the online article from: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.14724642.2007.00423.x (This link will take you to the article abstract). Please note: Blackwell Publishing is not responsible for the content or functionality of any supplementary materials supplied by the authors. Any queries (other than missing material) should be directed to the corresponding author for the article. © 2007 The Authors Diversity and Distributions, 14, 95–105, Journal compilation © 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd 105
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