THE RISE OF THE
MEGALOPOLIS
R.C. “RICK” MOBLEY, ASLA, AICP, FITE
REGIONAL DIRECTOR OF
TRANSPORTATION PLANNING AT RS&H
MEGALOPOLIS
A VERY LARGE, HEAVILY POPULATED
CITY OR URBAN COMPLEX
Snapshot
» Global Trends
» US Trends
» Texas Trends
» Demographic Trends
» Questions and Discussions
GLOBAL TRENDS
|POPULATION|URBANIZATION|
World Population Reached 7.3 Billion by Mid 2015
North America
and Oceania
25%
Asia
22%
Africa
12%
Latin America
and Caribbean
23%
Europe
18%
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects
World Population by Age Group
» More than half of the population
is between the ages of 15 and 59
>60 yrs
12%
15-59 yrs
62%
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects
<15 yrs
26%
World Population by Year & Group
» The rural population
peaks in 2030
11.0
10.0
9.0
1950
1970
1990
2030
2050
POPULATION IN BILLIONS
» As the world population
increases, trends
indicate the urban
population will continue
to increase, reaching
over 6 billion by 2050
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
World
World Urban
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects
World Rural
World Population by Group
» Data shows the world
rural population will
experience a decline
starting in 2030
400%
1950-1970
1970-1990
1990-2014
2014-2030
2030-2050
AVG ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE
» Although the population
will continue to increase,
data shows population
growth has slowed since
1970 and will continue
to slow until 2050
300%
200%
100%
0%
World
World Urban
-100%
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects
World Rural
World Population Average Annual Rate of Change by Group
» World population
growth is slowing down
190%
183%
129%
94%
63%
1950-1970
1970-1990
1990-2014
2014-2030
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects
2030-2050
World Urban Population Average Annual Rate of Change by
Group
» World urban population
growth is slowing down
296%
263%
221%
166%
113%
1950-1970
1970-1990
1990-2014
2014-2030
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects
2030-2050
World Rural Population Average Annual Rate of Change by
Group
» World rural population
is declining
137%
130%
43%
1%
1950-1970
1970-1990
1990-2014
2014-2030
2030-2050
-23%
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects
UNITED STATES TRENDS
|POPULATION|URBANIZATION|
US Population by Year
» The US population is
increasing and will reach
an estimated 389 Million
by 2050
400
1950
1970
1990
2030
2050
POPULATION IN MILLIONS
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
United States
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects
US Population Density by Year
» The US population
density will increase to
an estimated 43 persons
per square mile by 2050
1950
1970
1990
2030
2050
DENSITY (PERSONS PER SQUARE MILE)
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
United States
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects
Urbanization Trends
» Urbanization in the
US is increasing
81%
87%
64%
36%
19%
Urban
Rural
1950
2014
2050
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects
13%
What is Urbanization?
» The migration from rural areas to urban areas
» Absolute growth in the urban area (urban growth)
» Urban growth that is faster than rural growth
Source: US Census Bureau
What is an Urban Area?
» The US Census Bureau identifies two types of urban areas
1. Urban Cluster: Densely settled territory with 2,500-50,000 inhabitants
2. Urbanized Area: Densely settled territory with 50,000 inhabitants or more
Source: US Census Bureau
Source: Herald Sun | Melbourne, Australia
Are we thinking about this all wrong ??
» “We think urban planning ..focuses on making dense cities denser,
where the minority of the worlds population wants to live”
– Alan Berger MIT
» “only one in eight urban dwellers worldwide live in dense mega cities”
– United Nations report
» “we're looking and focusing on cities….take all the cities in the world,
you could fill up India. My question is, what about the rest ?
– Pierre Belanger – Harvard Graduate School of Design
Produced by data-viz blogger Max Galka, this map was generated using statistics compiled by a NASA research unit.
Where Most of Humanity Lives: Half lives in the black space and the other half in the yellow
The Emerging Megaregions
Urbanized
Areas &
Urban
Clusters
Source: US Census Bureau – 2010 Census Urban Area Delineation Program
Ten Most
Populous
Urbanized
Areas
Source: US Census Bureau – 2010 Census Urban Area Delineation Program
The Five States with the Largest Numeric
Increase from July 1, 2014 to July 1, 2015
490,036
Texas
365,703
Florida
352,527
California
Georgia
Washington
117,728
107,185
Source: US Census Bureau – News Release , Number: CB16-43 | December 22, 2015
TEXAS TRENDS
|POPULATION|URBANIZATION|
Texas in 2010
» Houston
» DFW
» San Antonio
» Austin
Texas Population Projections by Year
» Projections indicate the
population in Texas will
reach 40.5 Million by 2050
50
40.50
2020
2030
2040
2050
POPULATION IN MILLIONS
40
30
28.80
20
10
0
Source: US Census Bureau – Texas Population Projections, 2010 to 2050
Texas
Projected Percent Change from 2010
» 61% increase in
population from
2010 to 2050
PERCENT CHANGE (%)
61.07
45.36
29.96
14.59
2010-2020
2010-2030
Source: US Census Bureau – Texas Population Projections, 2010 to 2050
2010-2040
2010-2050
Four Texas Metro
Areas Collectively
Add More than
400,000 People in the
Last Year – Census
Bureau Reports
Source: US Census Bureau – Texas Population Projections, 2010 to 2050
Projected Geographic Distribution of the Population
» Growth in the majority of
Texas counties
Percent population change in Texas counties, 2010 to 2050
0.5 migration scenario
» Especially in suburban
counties that surround large
urban centers AND counties
along the southern border
Source: US Census Bureau – Texas Population Projections, 2010 to 2050
The New Suburbia
» Flexible densities
» Mix of uses. Live, work, play.
» Self Contained
» Connections to Center City
» Affordable
Formation of Megalopolises
» As urbanized areas expand and
urban clusters increase, they begin
to merge with each other to create a
megalopolis
Megalopolises of
the future
Source: Future of Suburbia | MIT Center for Advanced Urbanism
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS
|POPULATION|URBANIZATION|
Demographic Changes
» Older population
» Young professionals
» Empty nesters
» Solopreneurs
» Cultural diversity
» Demand for modal choices
New Millennial Mindset
» Generation’s homebuyers are drawn
to suburbs with aspects of city living
» 35% of the homebuyers are
millennials
» Cost and proximity to work are factors
» 17% of home purchases are located
within an urban area or central city
» National Association of Realtors found
more than ½ of millennials buying
houses are choosing the suburbs
Source: Houston Chronicle | Tuesday March 29, 2016
Changes in
Development Patterns
» Re-densification
» Livable centers
» Mixed uses
» Refocus on transit
» Walkable, bikeable communities
Denser Urban Environments
» Lower auto ownership
» Higher transit ridership
» Mixed uses for live/
work/play environments
» More multi-modal
opportunities
» Escapees from the city
Denser Urban Environments
Denser Sub-Urban
Environments
» Homebuyers move farther from city
center amid rising home prices
» In Austin, the median home sold in
2011 was 13.2 miles from the city
center, and 14.8 miles in 2015
» In Houston, the median home sold in
2015 was 20.6 miles from the urban
core, increasing 5.6% since 2011
» National median price per square
foot in 2015 was $284 in urban
centers vs. $148 in non-urban centers
Source: Austin Business Journal| Friday March 25, 2016
Different Work Environments
» Satellite offices
» Work form home
» Virtual offices
» Shared work spaces
» Community work spaces
(collaboration spaces)
Different Retail Experiences
» Big – Boxalypse
» Corner stores and
support retail
» Show rooms
» On line shopping
» Front door delivery
So How Do We Respond ?
» Take advantage of technology and implement TDM and TSM
techniques across all modes
» Emphasize Shared Use Facilities (roads, sidewalks, parking)
» Take advantage of transit development and become more
multi-modal in approach to solutions
» Recognize needs of different users and respond appropriately
in providing transportation solutions
So the theory is…
» Urbanization will continue with a mix of users in the center cities and highly
urbanized areas including boomers, genX and Y’ers as well as millennials.
» The phenomena of escapees and soltrepenures will continue as the population ages.
» Suburbanization will continue – but it must take on a new form – not just the typical
bedroom community.
» As suburban centers become more self contained the city center and traditional core
will have less importance, except for major cultural activities and sporting events.
» Transportation as we know it will change. Less need to connect to city center. More
needs internally for the new suburbia. New interconnections with multi node cities
as well as between cities.
» The Megalopolis will be our future. We must change our thinking about
transportation out to the new horizon years of 2050 and beyond.
QUESTIONS AND
DISCUSSION
Community Evolution
» Early circulation concepts
– Historical circulation systems
– American circulation systems
» Community pattern
–
–
–
–
–
Early forms
Mass transportation
Automotive transportation
Community shape
Future patterns
Community Evolution (cont’d.)
» Growth trends
– Population trends
– Employment distribution
– Travel trends
Estimated Vehicle Miles Driven on All Roads
Estimated Vehicle Miles Driven and Gasoline Prices
Human Mobility
» People and goods
» Auto
» Truck
» Rail
» Air