world water day, march 22 2010
EPN
ESTIMATING THE MELTING OF TROPICAL GLACIERS USING LOCAL, REGIONAL,
AND GLOBAL HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DATA AND MODELING
Daniela Freile1, Carla Manciati1,2, and Remigio Galárraga‐Sánchez1,3
1School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Escuela
Politécnica Nacional, Quito, Ecuador 2University of Montpellier, France
3Geological and Mining Engineering and Sciences, Michigan Technological University, Houghton, USA
INTRODUCTION: Long‐term water supplies for large cities in the Andes, such as Quito, Ecuador, may be in jeopardy due to increasing rates of glacial melting. Melting rates in the tropics of South America in the past years have experienced greater amounts of retreat (Cáceres, et. al., 2005.; Sémiond, et. al., 1998). Climate data from a range of spatial (local, regional, and global) and temporal (monthly and seasonal) scales in conjunction with direct observations of melting of Glacier 15α and Los Crespos formed the basis for initial modeling of climate change effects on glacier hydrology.
Antisana
Icecap
ECUADOR
LOCAL INDICES, REGIONAL VARIABLES AND GLOBAL REANALYSIS
LOCAL INDICES: precipitation with 2 and 9 months lag in the stations located in the glacier and in the paramo area were used as meteorological indices to define the degree of melting from the glacier.
REGIONAL VARIABLES: Principal component analysis showed that there is a 38% in variance between local and regional stations located at the mountain zone (Highland region) and the Amazon region.
GLOBAL REANALYSIS: ENSO, SOI, zonal wind, relative humidity, temperature reanalysis were used for these models, but temperature was the best variable to explain the melting from the glacier.
MODELS TO EXPLAIN MELTING IN THE ABLATION ZONE AND LOCAL, REGIONAL AND GLOBAL HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL VARIABLES
LOCAL AND REGIONAL MODEL
South America
http://www.exploringecuador.com/maps/region_todas.htm
OVERALL OBJECTIVES: Define mathematical relationships between monthly and seasonal hydro meteorological data to determine the extent and rate of glacier melting from Glaciar 15α and Los Crespos in the Antisana Volcano in Ecuador. Quantify the temporal melting behavior into local, regional, and global hydro meteorological data.
STUDY AREA AND BASIC DATA: ANTISANA VOLCANO, ECUADOR, SOUTH AMERICA
FULL REGIONAL AND GLOBAL MODEL
MODELIZACIÓN DE LA FUSIÓN VS. VARIACIÓN DE TEMPERATURA DE LA SUPERFICIE DE
LA TIERRA (IPCC)
1000
1.100
ANTISANA VOLCANO, ECUADOR
0.700
0.500
400
0.300
200
0.100
-0.100
0
-0.300
-200
-0.500
01/08/2006
01/08/2004
01/08/2002
01/08/2000
01/08/1998
01/08/1996
01/08/1994
01/08/1992
01/08/1990
01/08/1988
01/08/1986
01/08/1984
01/08/1982
01/08/1980
01/08/1978
01/08/1976
01/08/1974
01/08/1972
01/08/1970
01/08/1968
01/08/1966
-0.700
01/08/1964
-400
Glacier 15 α and Los Crespos study area
Source: INFORME ANUAL 2004 GREATICE
Drawn by: Cáceres & Villacís, 2005
LOCAL, REGIONAL AND GLOBAL INFORMATION
LOCAL DATA: The GREATICE Project (INAMHI, EMAAP‐Q, IRD) provided local information (precipitation, temperature, runoff) for 8 meteorological stations located in the Antisana Volcano
from 1995 through 2005 for Glacier 15α and Los Crespos Glaciers.
0.900
600
Anomalía de Temperatura (ºC)
- Balance de la Zona de Ablación (mm w.e./month)
r2 = 60 %
800
Fecha
INVERSO BALANCE OBSERVADO
INVERSO BALANCE CALCULADO
Variación de Temperatura Superficie Terrestre
SIMPLIFIED REGIONAL MODEL
REGIONAL DATA: INAMHI provided regional information
(precipitation and temperature) from 50 meteorological
stations nationwide, including the oldest meteorological
recording station in Ecuador (Observatiorio Astronómico de Quito)
MODELIZACIÓN DE LA FUSIÓN VS. VARIACIÓN DE TEMPERATURA DE LA SUPERFICIE DE
LA TIERRA (IPCC)
1.000
r2 = 52 %
700
0.800
0.600
500
0.400
300
0.200
100
0.000
º
-0.200
-100
-0.400
Anomalía de Temperatura (ºC)
- Balance de la Zona de Ablación (mm w.e./month)
900
-300
-0.600
-0.800
01/01/2006
01/01/2001
01/01/1996
01/01/1991
01/01/1986
01/01/1981
01/01/1976
01/01/1971
01/01/1966
01/01/1961
01/01/1956
01/01/1951
01/01/1946
01/01/1941
01/01/1936
01/01/1931
01/01/1926
01/01/1921
01/01/1916
01/01/1911
01/01/1906
01/01/1901
01/01/1896
01/01/1891
-500
Fecha
INVERSO BALANCE OBSERVADO
GLOBAL DATA: The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu) provided
global data on temperature, humidity, specific humidity, El Niño and ENSO indices, wind velocity and reflected long‐
wave radiation.
INVERSO BALANCE GENERADO
Variación de Temperatura de la Superficie Terrestre
CONCLUSIONS:
1. Melting from high altitude glaciers located in the tropics of South America are subject to the direct influence of global temperature and it has been subject to an increasing rate in the past 30 years.
2. The great variability in the melting in the last 30 years show that changes are mainly subject to the variability of temperature and precipitation, but it is not clear if these changes are due to human intervention.
3. A linear combination of local precipitation—using a 9‐month lag at station Paramo—and precipitation (M376) and temperature (M003) from regional meteorological stations reflects the time variability of melting from glaciers 15α and Los Crespos in the Antisana. 4. 4. A linear combination of high‐altitude temperature (700 mb of pressure) together with regional temperature (M003) and precipitation (M736) accounts for the time variability of melting from glaciers 15α and Los Crespos.
5. 5. A simple linear regression between regional temperature (M003) and melting balance from glaciers 15 α and los Crespos represents the melting behavior of these two high‐altitude tropical glaciers.
BIBLIOGRAPHY:
Cáceres, B., Maisincho, L., Taupin, J.D., Francou, B., Cadier, E., Delachaux, F., Bucher, R., Villacís, M., Paredes, D., Chazarin, J.P., Garcés, A., y Remy Laval, 2005. Glaciares del Ecuador: Antizana y Carihuayrazo. Balance de masa, Topografía, Meteorología e Hidrología. Informe del año 2004.
IRD, INAMHI, EMAAP‐QUITO. Quito.
Sémiond, H., Francou, B., Ayabaca, E., De la Cruz, A. y Ramón Chango. 1998. El Glaciar 15 del Antizana Investigaciones glaciológicas 1994 – 1997. IFEA‐ORSTOM, ORSTOM‐CNRS, EMAAP‐QUITO, INAMHI. Quito.
Freile, Daniela & Manciati Carla, 2007 Relación a escala mensual y estacional entre la información hidrometeorológica local y regionaly la fusión de los glaciares tropicales del Ecuador. Casos de estudio: Glaciar15 y Glaciar “CRESPOS” del nevado Antisana. Tesis de Grado. Escuela Politécnica Nacional.