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New Era’s Impact on Young Voter Turnout
A case study of turnout data in Boulder, Colorado
New Era Colorado Foundation | 1722 Humboldt Street Denver, CO 80218 | wwww.NewEraColorado.org | 720.565.9317
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!Executive Summary & Methodology
!Founded in 2006, New Era is an innovative vehicle for hands-on democracy that engages, educates and
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trains a new generation of active citizens and young leaders in Colorado. Rather than intermittently invest
resources in young people, New Era Colorado Foundation works to create a long-lasting culture of civic
engagement among young voters every year.
!At the heart of our organization is a data-driven, peer-to-
peer civic engagement program. New Era runs large-scale,
on-the-ground voter engagement efforts during high profile
and off-year elections alike. New Era’s army of volunteers
are out every year registering voters and turning them out to
the polls, collecting pledge-to-vote cards, knocking doors,
making dials and having critical conversations about the
importance of electoral participation.
!New Era is consistently one of the only organizations that
registers and turns out young people in off-year elections
across the country, let alone in Colorado. New Era engages
young people in the political process around elections,
ballot measures, and legislation which directly impact the
communities in which they live.
!The following report takes an in-depth look at New Era’s impact on young voter participation levels by using
Boulder, Colorado as a case study. The report analyzes historic voter turnout data obtained from the
Boulder County Clerk & Recorder’s office, with a focus on analyzing young voter participation in municipal
off-year elections. The reason for looking at trends in young voter participation in off-year municipal Boulder
elections is three-fold:
• New Era was the only organized effort focused on engaging and turning out young voters in Boulder
during these election cycles, therefore we can attribute growth to New Era’s efforts with a high degree of
certainty.
• Even-year and high profile elections such as the 2010 midterm and 2012 presidential elections have a
crowded landscape of organizations and campaigns conducting voter outreach, therefore making it
difficult to attribute specific growth to New Era.
• It is logical that turning out underrepresented voters such as young voters in municipal elections is much
more difficult than in a presidential election. It’s a logical conclusion that if you turn out a voter in a
municipal election, then there is an extremely high probability that they will develop a habit and turn out in
future elections of all kinds.
!This report finds that over the course of five years, New Era’s data-driven voter engagement and
mobilization programs have almost quadrupled young voter turnout1 in off year elections in Boulder,
Colorado. Further and perhaps more relevant, is that this increase in raw turnout has led to a dramatic
increase in vote share of young voters--an increase from 11 percent of the electorate in 2009 to 22.2
percent of the electorate in 2013--thus shaping the makeup of the electorate in Boulder and potentially
having dramatic impacts on policies and elections. 1
For the purposes of this case study, the term “young voter” means 18-34 years of age.
Impact on Total Turnout of Young Voters
In 2013, as a result of New Era’s work engaging and turning out young voters, twice as many 18-year-olds
voted than in 2011, and six times more 18-year-olds voted than in 2009. In these five short years, Boulder’s
total youth voter turnout for off-year elections nearly quadrupled.
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Number of Voters
Youth Voter Turnout 2009, 2011 & 2013
540
480
420
360
300
240
180
120
60
0
18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34
Age
2013
2011
2009
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Impact on Turnout Parity by Age Group
!Youth turnout increased 120 percent from 2009 to 2011, and 60 percent from 2011 to 2013. Overall, that’s a
260 percent increase in the number of young people who cast a ballot from 2009 to 2013.
!Consequently, New Era’s work is quickly shrinking the gap between the number of 18-34 year-old voters
and 35-50 year-old voters. In 2009, 132 percent more 35-50 year-olds voted than 18-34 year-olds. By
2013, the gap between 18-34 and 35-50 year-olds shrank to just 15 percent.
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Turnout by Age Group and Year
9000
Number of Voters
7500
6000
4500
3000
1500
0
2009
2011
2013
Year
18-34
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35-50
Impact on Vote Share by Age Group
!Vote share is the percentage of votes that are made up by a specific group out of an entire election’s
turnout. Vote share is often used to calculate the “power” or influence a group has on the turnout of
elections. In this case we examined vote share by age group to determine what percentage of the total
voters each year was made up of 18-34 year-olds.
!The conclusion is that young voters have doubled their vote share from 11 percent in 2009, to 22.2 percent
in 2013, showing that New Era’s civic engagement program is quickly reshaping the electorate to better
represent the community as a whole.
2009 Vote Share
by Age Group
2011 Vote Share
by Age Group
11%
17%
26%
60%
63%
18-34
35-50
2013 Vote Share
by Age Group
51+
18-34
22%
52%
23%
35-50
26%
51+
18-34
35-50
51+
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Impact on Turnout of Youth-Dense Precincts
!We examined the number of voters within 8 youth-dense precincts concentrated on-and-off campus.
Turnout in all of these identified precincts has at least doubled since 2009. In Precinct 4, William’s Village,
2013 turnout is 22 times higher than it was in 2009.
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By taking a magnifying glass to the precincts where most of New Era’s registration and get-out-the-
vote efforts are concentrated, we can link an impact to dramatic increases in youth electoral
participation.
Voter Turnout in Youth Dense Precincts
Number of Voters
200
150
100
50
0
Precinct 1
Precinct 3
2009
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Precinct 5
2011
Precinct 7
2013
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Impact on Young Voter Turnout by Age Range
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In 2009, only 2 percent of all 18-24 year-olds living in Boulder cast a ballot. That number
increased more than four-fold to 9 percent in 2013. Voter turnout as a percent of the population for
all 25-35 year-olds in Boulder increased from 7 percent in 2009 to 21 percent in 2013, tripling
turnout rates for that age group. For an off-year municipal election, this is not dramatically off from
the turnout of the overall population as a whole.
Voters as Percent of Youth Population
Percent Turnout
30
24
18
12
6
0
2009
2011
18-24
2013
25-34
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Long-term Implications
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Studies show that when a young voter votes in 2 or 3 elections in a row, voting quickly becomes
habitual and is carried into adulthood. By turning out these young voters at such a young age,
New Era is creating life-long voters which will participate election after election, thus having a
profound long-term impact on the future democracy of Colorado for years to come.
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New Era’s organizing efforts have shown dramatic results in transforming the overall electorate of
Boulder. By 2013 total youth turnout in off-year elections increased by 260 percent and nearly
quadrupled from its original size in 2009. Furthermore, by encouraging young people to engage in
the democratic process, New Era has doubled youth vote share in Boulder from 11 percent to 22.2
percent in just less than five years.
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Although this case study only analyzes New Era’s impact on local elections in Boulder, it’s
important to note that New Era conducts similar voter registration and turnout efforts often all over
the state, including in Denver, Fort Collins, on the Western Slope, Colorado Springs, and other
communities.
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Although New Era’s impact to date is significant, there is still much more work to do in order to
reach true vote parity for young voters within the Colorado electorate. The work that is needed is
only accomplishable if New Era not only continues the data-driven, on-the-ground programs it has
mastered, but expands them with increased organizational capacity and into more communities
across the state.
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Contact Us
New Era HQ Boulder / 1648 Spruce Street, Boulder, CO 80302
New Era HQ Denver / 1722 Humboldt Street, Denver, CO 80218
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Phone: (720) 565-9317
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Email: [email protected]
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Facebook/NewEraColorado
Twitter/NewEraColorado
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