Lecture 1 – Inequality and Principles of Measurement CES Lectures, Fall 2004 Michael Hoy Preliminaries Useful Surveys: • Stephen Jenkins (1991) – short and accessible • Frank Cowell (2000) – more comprehensive • Peter J. Lambert (2001) – comprehensive book with several chapters on equity and taxation Free Software: • DAD – go to www.pep-net.org/ Structure of the Lectures • Basic principles I + applications • Basic principles II + applications • Comparing distributional impact of alternative tax schedules 1 Intended goals of this lecture series: • Provide a background to underlying principles of inequality measurement in a way that is useful for the “nonspecialist” practitioner • Perhaps entice someone to look more deeply into principles of inequality and how this relates to measurement in order to further theory of inequality measurement • Provide illustrative examples on applications (focus on impact of government policies) • Final lecture will be devoted to comparisons of income tax schedules with a special emphasis on recent reforms of tax flattening 2 Why study distributional impacts of economic/policy changes? • Poverty of efficiency analysis (growth issues excepted) • People care about distributional issues • Make economic analysis more relevant to policy making Why should “nonspecialists” become more involved in distributional analysis? • Improve link between behavioural and normative economics • Thinking about distributional issues widens one’s conceptual framework • Help specialists do more relevant work 3 Lorenz Curves and Quantile Shares Simplistically speaking, the goal of inequality analysis is to rank income distributions according to the inequality or distributive inequity they display. Discrete Case: Let x = (x1, x2, …, xn) and y = (y1, y2, …, yn) be two (ordered-nonincreasing) income vectors with the same mean income. Continuous Case: Compare two income distributions with the same mean, x~F(x), x~G(x), x ∈ ℜ + + Goals of Inequality Analysis • How to compare inequality in x vs. y or F vs. G. • Can we (should we) say anything about the degree of inequality in a cardinally meaningful way? • What types of comparisons could be of interest? 4 Illustrative Example: • A = (8, 13, 18, 25, 36) • B = (6, 15, 15, 23, 41) • C = (7, 14, 19, 24, 36) How would you rank these from “most equally distributed income” to “least equally distributed income”? Note – some income gaps are larger, some smaller between any pair of the above distributions. However, most emphasis is on relative incomes and types of transfers (progressive vs. regressive). Pigou-Dalton principle of transfers: If an income transfer from a poorer to a richer person in the income distribution is made, inequality rises. This principle has a status in income distribution analysis almost as important as the Pareto principle in welfare economics. 5 B = A + 3 regressive transfers i.e., $2 from person 1 to 2 $3 from person 3 to 4 $5 from person 4 to 5 Therefore, by the Pigou-Dalton principle of transfers, incomes in B are less equally distributed than incomes in distribution A. It is not so straightforward to compare the degree of inequality in A vs. C. C = A + one regressive transfer + one progressive transfer i.e., $1 from person 1 to 2 $1 from person 4 to 3 6 Quintile Shares (%) Quintile A B C Cum % Cumulative Shares (%) A B C Poorest 1 2 3 4 5 Cum. 8 13 18 25 36 100 6 15 15 23 41 100 7 14 19 24 36 100 .2 .4 .6 .8 1.0 8 21 39 64 100 6 21 36 59 100 7 21 40 64 100 *NOTE: The slope of the Lorenz curve at cumulative share point k (where we are cumulating the kth percent poorest person’s income) is in fact that person’s income xk divided by mean income µ (i.e., xk/µ). This can be a useful fact simply to help in sketching Lorenz curves but also to understand related inequality measures, etc. So, for distribution B, the Lorenz curve slope remains constant (at 15/20 = 0.75) from k=0.2 to k = 0.6. 7 Graph of Lorenz Curves 8 Lorenz Curves and Lorenz Criterion In fact, whenever one distribution (B) can be generated from another distribution (A) through a series of regressive transfers, the Lorenz curve for A will lie above (weakly at least) than for B at all points. In such cases it is common to say that distribution A is “unambiguously more equal” than is B and we say that distribution “A Lorenz dominates distribution B” (A >L B). This reflects the general acceptance of the Pigou-Dalton principle as central to inequality analysis. The Lorenz curves for A and C, on the other hand, intersect. However, we will see later that when Lorenz curves intersect, not all is necessarily lost. Cases of intersecting Lorenz curves are empirically important. Eg., Kakwani (1984) found Lorenz crossings in more than 30% of 2,556 possible pairwise comparisons between 72 countries. Also, many OECD countries (and others) have recently introduced tax flattening reforms and these typically lead to intersecting Lorenz curves for after-tax income distributions (see Davies and Hoy, 1995, 2002). 9 EXAMPLE • Impact of risk categorization (public vs. private insurance) Distributional Impact of Community Rating Legislation in Insurance (see M. Hoy, 1984). R-S-W Model: 2 states: Loss: x1 = x0 – L No Loss: x2 = x0 2 risk types; h, l: ph > pl Expected Loss: µh = phL , µl = plL Proportions of each type: q h , q l Full coverage price (actuarially fair): A = q h µ h + ql µ l Let r be rate of coverage (0 < r < 1). 10 If no categorization (B): If Loss: x1 = x0 –rA – (1-r)L No Loss: x2 = x0 –rA x1 < x2 Let S1B, S2B be set (and number) of individuals receiving income x1, x2, respectively • See Lorenz curve. Suppose categorization is allowed (A): 2 (imperfect) risk categories – H, L Prices: AH > A > AL → obtain 4 income groups: S1A : Class H, pay AH, suffer loss L S2A : Class L, pay AL, suffer loss L S3A : Class H, pay AH, suffer no loss S4A : Class L, pay AL, suffer no loss 11 Formal Definition of the Lorenz Curve For a discrete distribution x = (x1, x2, …, xn): j x j L = ∑ i , where 1 ≤ j ≤ n n i =1 X n and X = ∑ xi is total income. i =1 For a continuous distribution F(x), assume x ∈ [ x , x ] , and frequency density f(x) is nonzero throughout the income range. Then there is just one income level y with rank p, which satisfies p=F(y), the income of the first 100p percent of income recipients is min xmax y N ∫ xf ( x)dx xmin max and total income is N ∫ xf ( x)dx = Nµ xmin Hence, the Lorenz curve L(p) is defined by y p = F ( y ) ⇒ L( p ) = ∫ xmin xf ( x)dx µ , 0 < p <1 We will assume throughout that xmin > 0. 12 Lemma For 0 < p < 1, L(p) = y/µ and L (p) = 1/[µf(y)] > 0. Proof: Differentiate L(p) using the chain rule dL d [ L( p) / dy ] yf ( y ) / µ y = = = µ dp dp / dy f ( y) Now differentiate again for the second result, noting dp/dy = dF(y)/dy=f(y). So the Lorenz curve is upward sloping and convex. Moreover, L(p) = y/µ = 1 at the percentile point corresponding to mean income (i.e., when the pth person’s income is µ). At this point p the slope of the Lorenz curve is equal to the slope of the line of perfect equality and so this marks the point at which the Lorenz curve is furthest away from the line of perfect inequality. 13 Graph of Lorenz Curve with Illustration of Lemma. 14 Inequality Indices We present a formal definition of an inequality index only for the case of continuous distributions. Let x ∈ [ x min , x max ] , be an interval of real-valued Let f(x) be a strictly positive, continuous, relative frequency distribution from a space Ω over incomes. A “valid” inequality index is a function I:Ω → R that rises when there is regressive transfer. 15 Two commonly used inequality indices based on the geometry of the Lorenz curve: Schutz Index (S): (1) S = F(µ) – L[F(µ)] (i.e., maximum distance between L(p) and line of complete equality) Gini Index (G): 1 (2a) G = 1 − 2 ∫ L( p )dp 0 (i.e., area A divided by A+B indicated on the above graph, or twice area A) 16 The Gini index is probably the most used inequality index by practitioners. Also, Gini index is a normalization of the difference between any two randomly drawn persons’ incomes from the distribution. (2b) G=∑ i ∑ j | xi − x j | 2N 2 µ From a normative perspective neither of these indices is compelling. 17 Other commonly used inequality indices include: Variance: n 2 (3) V = (1 / n)∑ ( xi − µ ) i =1 Coefficient of Variation: (4) CV = V / µ Logarithmic Variance: n (5) n L = (1 / n)∑ [log( xi ) − log( µ )] = (1 / n)∑ [log( xi /µ )] 2 2 i =1 i =1 Kolm family of inequality indices: n (6) K (α ) = (1 / α ) ln[(1 / n)∑ exp(α ( µ − xi ))], α > 0 i =1 18 Atkinson family of inequality indices: (7a) n Aε = 1 − (1 / n)∑ ( xi / µ )1−ε i =1 1 /(1−ε ) = 1 − exp (1 / n)∑ ln( xi / µ ), , ε ≠ 1, ε > o ε =1 Note that the Atkinson family (Aε) is based on the utilitiarian welfare function using utilities: x1−ε u ( x) = , ε ≠ 1, ε > 0 1− ε u ( x) = ln( x), ε = 1 That is, the utility function is iso-elastic; i.e., %∆(u ' ( x)) x ⋅ u ' ' ( x) = = −ε %∆ ( x) u ' ( x) 19 Remarks: • Inequality and welfare are inversely related • I ≠ -W since normalizations for I are useful • u(x) in Atkinson’s formulation is the CRRA utility function used in risk theory The Atkinson index and associated welfare function allow one to develop a useful cardinal, albeit subjective, measure of inequality - “cost of inequality”. First, define equally distributed income, xe, by: n n i =1 i =1 W = (1 / n)∑ u ( xi ) = (1 / n)∑ u ( x e ) = u ( x e ) Due to concavity of the utility function, xe < µ, mean income. The extent to which xe is less than µ is interpreted as the “cost of inequality”. It can be shown with a little algebra that Atkinson’s measure of inequality is also defined by (7b): 1− ε n Aε = 1 − ( xe / µ ), xe = (1 / n)∑ xi i =1 1 /(1− ε ) 20 This is illustrated by in the following graph, where µ - xe is equivalent to the risk premium in risk theory and µAε is the cost of inequality, or just Aε is the fraction of income/welfare lost due to inequality: 21 <<Insert Figure 1>> 22 Cowell, F. A. (2000) "Measurement of Inequality" in Handbook of Income Distribution, (ed. Atkinson, A.B. and Bourguignon, F.), North Holland, Amsterdam Hoy, M. (1984) “The Impact of Imperfectly Categorizing Risks on Income Inequality and Social Welfare,” Canadian Journal of Economics, vol. 17, no. 3, pp. 557-568. Jenkins, S. (1991), “The Measurement of Income Inequality,” in Economic Inequality and Poverty: International Perspectives (ed., Lars Osberg), M.E. Sharpe Ltd. Armonk, New York. Lambert, P. J. (2001), The Distribution and Redistribution of Income, pp. 302. Manchester University Press. 23
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