Promoting Community-based Adaptation Planning for Climate Change – INTERIOR ALASKA
FINDINGS: 2011-2012
Surveillance
Elements
Statewide
Health Outcomes Associated with Exposures
Environmental Observations
2011-2012
Surveillance
Elements
Environmental Observations
2013-2014
• Water from personal wells is variable
• Water quantities strained by frequent freezes, lack of rain and
hot weather
• Road conditions determine degrees of water reduction
• Industrial tourism lowering the water table
• Spring 2013: Unusually cold, more snow, late breakup
Atmosphere
• Summer 2013: Hot and dry June, July and August
• Autumn 2013: Late rainy season in September, ice and high
winds
• Winter 2013: Fluctuate warm and cold, late freeze-up
Biology/Ecosystems • Spring 2013: Snowshoe hare population on the rise
Effects on Plants • Fewer caribou in usual migration routes
• Less moose activity
and Wildlife
• Late tree budding
• Summer 2013: Bad mosquito season
• Late break-up affected Chinook salmon run
• Fewer bear sightings, more wolves
• Fall 2013: Berries lasted into October
• Difficult to see game because leaves are still on trees
• Fall foliage not as vibrant, changed in unusual patters
• Winter 2013: Moose on trails to avoid high snow
• Geese sightings
• Frustrations when the weather is not as expected, whether it
Social/Health
be unseasonably warm or cold
• Worry when seasonal business, or activity cannot begin with
tourist season
Water Quantity and
Quality
RESEARCH POSTER PRESENTATION DESIGN © 2012
www.PosterPresentations.com
Exposure Exposure
2:
2:
Changed Changed
Travel
Travel
Plans
Plans
2011-12 2013-14
Adaptation
Suggestions:
Increased health
education
Access to
healthcare,
increased air
quality
monitoring ,
increased
education for
area hunters,
access to
community
water source for
showers and
laundry
Fish and berries less
consistently available.
Exposure
1:
Unusual
Weather
2011-12
Exposure
1:
Unusual
Weather
2013-14
Allergic Asthma
1.53
1.25
1.09
1.04
Pollen Allergy
1.08
2.23**
.067*
1.13
Hypothermia
2.86
1.00
4.70**
1.77
Frostbiteb
1.99
1.20
3.67**
2.84*
Injury
3.62*
2.37*
4.72**
3.78**
Water Security
1.22
2.17
2.59*
1.48
Interior Region
Food Security
3.76**
0.90
1.21
1.02
Mitigation, Adaptation, Intervention
Outcome
Overall Health
(Excellent or
very good)
0.55*
0.91
0.63
Water Security:
Limited access to clean
water, particularly
among homesteaders
Respiratory
Ailments/Asthma:
Declining air quality
associated with
wind-blown dust in
the spring, increasing
pollen levels in fall,
and smoke from
forest fires in
summer
Intervention
1.20
*p < 0.05; **p< 0.01
File photo of Mississippi Fire, unknown date. InciWeb photo.
Source: Weather Underground Historical Archive: http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/PANN/2013/5/1/ CustomHistory.
html?dayend=22&monthend=7&yearend=2014&req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA
• Flood warnings in August after a dry June
• Water table is lowering in nearby lakes and ponds along the
highway
• Spring was late to start
• “Break up seems later this April. In other years snow has
completely melted by end of march.” (Participant 73)
Atmosphere
• Colder fall temperatures arrived slightly later than normal,
postponing freeze-up, yet when the colder temperatures did
arrive, it happened very quickly
• Beginning of June reported as warmer and drier than usual
• “It's never really the same summer twice in Alaska.” (Participant
77)
• Permafrost melting faster than normal
Land
• Wildfires started slightly earlier than normal
• “The extra rain has caused some major potholes in some of the
local dirt roads” (Participant 77)
• More thermokarsts have formed in Denali Park
Biology/Ecosystems • Blueberries were more abundant than last year, but still a
smaller harvest than some would have liked
• The snowshoe hare population seems to be down
• Infestation of rusty tussock moths
Social
• Extremely cold temperatures in January stopped some people
from going on hunts
• Outdoor hockey practice and games were cancelled many times
due to cold weather
• Icy road conditions prevented some people from attending
certain events
Image Credit: NASA/Jeff Schmaltz, LANCE MODIS Rapid Response Team, NASA GSFC
June 17, 2013, the date that the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer
(MODIS) on NASA's Terra satellite acquired this rare, nearly cloud-free view of the state.”
Water
Regional Health Outcomes Ranking
Wildlife
Interactions/Injury:
Growing number of
people with little idea
how to deal with bears ,
scraps from hunting
and fishing activities.
Source
Timely severe weather
notifications
(October ‘13 – Present)
NOAA Hazards: Winter
advisories, flood
warnings, red flag
Air Quality Warnings
(October ‘13 – Present)
NOAA, Alaska DEC
Newsletter: Collection of
climate and weatherrelated information
sources
(October ‘13 – Present)
Multiple sources.
Frequent Topics: Food
safety, wildlife patterns,
climate policy, current
research
2011-2012
2013-2014
Pollen Allergy
Pollen Allergy
Food
Food
Weather Injury
Weather Injury
Asthma
Frostbite
Water
Water
Asthma
Frostbite
Hypothermia
Hypothermia
Weather
Mortality
PSP
Weather
Mortality
PSP
Photo Credit ICHS 2010
ENVIRONMENTAL EXPOSURES
Promoting Community-based Adaptation Planning for Climate Change – Northwest ALASKA
Observations
Water
• Ice melt is occurring quicker and sooner on the Noatak River
• River is too shallow
• River stayed open in some places despite the freezing cold temperatures in
February, leading to ice fog
• Larger amount of snow than normal
• Sea ice cover took off earlier in the spring and was late to come in the winter, not
until after December
• When sea ice comes, doesn’t freeze as far out as it used to
• Less snow than normal reported
• More rain in July than normal
• Temperature fluctuations are quick and abundant
• “The temperature seems to drop from really cold to warm pretty quick like no
gradual change.” (Participant 43)
• Very cool summer temperatures
• Extra long cold snap in January and February
• Got a lot warmer a lot sooner
• “Elders say that it's getting hotter and hotter every year.” (Participant 33)
• Unexpected warm waves came through October-December until cold snap in
January
• Run off causes damage to roads
• River banks are eroding
• Permafrost has been melting in the cemetery making grave markers skew
• Erosion of town is a constant fear which has lead to many discussions of relocation
Atmosphere
Land
Biology/Ecosystems
Source: Weather Underground Historical Archive:
http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/PAVL/2013/5/1/CustomHistory.html?dayend=2&monthend=6&yearend
=2014&req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA
Surveillance
Elements
Environmental Observations
2013-2014
• Water quality varies greatly between communities
• Water quantities strained by water tank levels and operation
• Poor water quality affects what foods are eaten
• Water from the tank is frequently boiled, filtered and/or
bought or collected from rain catchment systems
• Spring 2013: Unusually cold, more snow, late breakup
Atmosphere
• Summer 2013: Late snow in June, hot July and August
• Autumn 2013: Lots of rain, early snow, rapid weather changes
• Winter 2013: Early winter rain, late freeze-up
Biology/Ecosystems • Spring 2013: Caribou harvested in spring
Effects on Plants • New ptarmigan population
• Ducks were late
and Wildlife
• Summer 2013: Prolonged ice fishing
• Odd bugs, larger bees
• Fall 2013: Caribou were late, early rut
• More bears
• Early berries
• Freeze/thaw patter ruined cranberries and blackberries still
on the bush
• Shee fish in village, late salmon
• Winter 2013: More wolves
• Good health linked to being active and/or participating in
Social/Health
subsistence activities
• Ailments connected to weather – personal health issue, worry
for someone traveling, or worry over property damage
• Lots of respiratory illness both indoor and outdoor
Social
Not enough vegetation on the tundra
Fish were being caught about a month earlier than normal
Caribou did not come during the 2010 fall hunting season
Trout catch was low
Berries were smaller but abundant
A lot of cotton grew
Caribou shortage was extremely damaging
Camping trips and travel were postponed due to the late break-up
Some planes were canceled due to fog and cold temperatures
“Weather changed too much, it also made change of our plans.” (Participant 86)
Cold weather and unpredictable changes in the winter weather limited people
from taking hunting trip
• Whaling stopped one month early because of sea ice coverage
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
RESEARCH POSTER PRESENTATION DESIGN © 2012
www.PosterPresentations.com
Image Credit: NASA/Jeff Schmaltz, LANCE MODIS Rapid Response Team, NASA GSFC
June 17, 2013, the date that the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's
Terra satellite acquired this rare, nearly cloud-free view of the state.”
Water Quantity and
Quality
Statewide
Health Outcomes Associated with Exposures
Outcome
Exposure
1:
Unusual
Weather
2011-12
Exposure Exposure Exposure
1:
2:
2:
Unusual Changed Changed
Weather
Travel
Travel
2013-14
Plans
Plans
2011-12 2013-14
Allergic Asthma
1.53
1.25
1.09
1.04
Pollen Allergy
1.08
2.23**
.067*
1.13
Hypothermia
2.86
1.00
4.70**
1.77
Frostbiteb
1.99
1.20
3.67**
2.84*
Injury
3.62*
2.37*
4.72**
3.78**
Water Security
1.22
2.17
2.59*
1.48
Food Security
3.76**
0.90
1.21
1.02
Overall Health
(Excellent or
very good)
0.55*
0.91
0.63
1.20
Regional Health Outcomes Ranking
Food Security:
Changes in location and
safety of shore-fast ice
impact marine hunting
and fishing
Changes in caribou
migration routes
Water Security:
Erosion causing heavy
particulate load in water
supply
Adaptation
Suggestions:
Erosion
control
Health
Education
Tribal
newsletter
Respiratory
Ailments/Asthma:
Declining air quality
associated with
wind-blown dust
associated with
warm and dry
weather as well as
high winds
Northwest Region
2011-2012
2013-2014
Falls
Food
Broken Bones
Pollen Allergy
Frostbite
Water
Asthma
Asthma
Hypothermia
Weather Injury
Food Security
Frostbite
Mental Health
Hypothermia
Water Security
Weather Mortality
Colds
PSP
Mitigation, Adaptation, Intervention
Intervention
*p < 0.05; **p< 0.01
Source
Timely severe weather
notifications
(October ‘13 – Present)
NOAA Hazards: Winter
advisories, flood
warnings
Ice Desk Updates
(October ‘13 – Present)
NOAA
Newsletter: Collection of
climate and weatherrelated information
sources
(October ‘13 – Present)
Multiple sources.
Frequent Topics: Food
safety, wildlife patterns,
climate policy, current
research
Photo Credit: S. Zuray/2011 USFWS Alaska Fish Photo Contest
Surveillance Elements
Photo Credit: ICHS 2013
FINDINGS: 2011-2012
ENVIRONMENTAL EXPOSURES
Promoting Community-based Adaptation Planning for Climate Change – Southeast ALASKA
Klawock, Alaska
Surveillance
Elements
Water
Atmosphere
Land
Environmental Observations
2011-2012
• Amounts of snowfall and rainfall fluctuated very frequently and quickly
which leads to dangerously icy conditions on the roads and other flat
surfaces
• Noticeably larger amounts of snowfall
• Changing tides affect boaters’ anchorage
• Low water levels at Silvis Lake affected the Beaver Falls hydroelectric facility
which supplies electricity to the city of Ketchikan
• Flooding over the road systems
• July and June reported as hotter and drier than usual in Angoon
• “The weather changes so fast. It always looks like it's going to be good
weather, and before you know it, it's raining.” (Participant 17)
• September storms led to property damage, power outages, and cruise ship
cancellation in Ketchikan
• Cold weather in combination with snow fall and plowing result in damaged
roads, such as potholes and cracks.
• “People are working on the roads from the bad winter.” (Participant 20)
Biology/Ecosystems • Berries late if any at all (salmonberries and blueberries)
•
•
•
•
Social
Source: Weather Underground Historical Archive:
http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/PAKW/2013/4/25/CustomHistory.html?dayend=25&monthend=5&yearend=20
14&req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA
Angoon, Alaska
• Travel via ferry or plane can be canceled or rescheduled due to extreme
wind, cold, or fog
• Weather hindered the ability to complete outdoor work which lead to
frustration
• Fog and cold in winter months decrease the amount of flights that bring mail
and other supplies to the village
Surveillance
Elements
Environmental Observations
2013-2014
Water Quantity and •
Quality
Atmosphere
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Biology/Ecosystems •
•
Effects on Plants and
•
Wildlife
•
•
•
Social/Health
•
•
•
Source: Weather Underground Historical Archive:
http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/PAGN/2013/4/1/CustomHistory.html?dayend=1&monthend=6&yearend=2014&req
_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA
RESEARCH POSTER PRESENTATION DESIGN © 2012
www.PosterPresentations.com
Plant growth in Spring was slow or delayed
Not nearly as many bear sightings as there has been previously
Increase in cones growing atop some Sitka Spruce trees
Increased rates of PSP infected shellfish
Some of those on water systems that are treated with chloramine are
avoiding municipal water in favor of rain catchment and bottled water
Rain catchment water levels stressed by warm summer and fall
Low lake levels result in “dirty” tasting water
Occasional boil notices are received
Spring 2013: Colder than usual in May with lots of precipitation.
Summer 2013: Little rain, but lightening storms occurred along with lots of
sunshine.
Fall 2013: Hot and dry August and September, but rain in October replenished
the water supply.
Winter 2013: Rain, wind and ice made travel difficult. Flood warnings came
in December. Warmer than usual for January in Ketchikan, and heavy fog hit
in February.
Spring 2014: Heavy rains resulted in flooding, landslides and continued ice.
Seaweed was short and sparse in the spring of 2013
Herring were late and salmon were early around Angoon in summer of 2013
Low water levels on Prince of Wales Island slowed fish return in summer
Some plants dried up in the heat, while others like berries flourished
Lots of pollen observed in the fall of 2013
Fewer geoducks, crab, and clams while there were more otters observed in
December 2013
Poor weather causes stress among community members waiting on personal
or family travel, as well as mail planes bringing bills and other documents.
Poor weather affects subsistence activities, which in turn affects mood
More sun during spring and summer improves emotional health, but brings
itchy, watery eyes with seasonal allergies
Regional Health Outcomes Ranking
Statewide
Health Outcomes Associated with Exposures
Outcome
Exposure
1:
Unusual
Weather
2011-12
Exposure Exposure Exposure
1:
2:
2:
Unusual Changed Changed
Weather Travel
Travel
2013-14 Plans
Plans
2011-12 2013-14
Allergic
Asthma
1.53
1.25
1.09
1.04
Pollen Allergy
1.08
2.23**
.067*
1.13
Hypothermia
2.86
1.00
4.70**
1.77
Frostbiteb
1.99
1.20
3.67**
2.84*
Injury
3.62*
2.37*
4.72**
3.78**
Water Security
1.22
2.17
2.59*
1.48
Food Security
3.76**
0.90
1.21
1.02
Overall Health
(Excellent or
very good)
2013-2014
Food Security
Food Security:
Declining food security
associated with
increased Paralytic
Shellfish Poisoning (PSP)
Pollen Allergy
Asthma
Air Quality:
Allergies and respiratory
ailments linked to
increasing amounts of
black mold inside homes
Adaptation
Suggestions:
Improved
access to
healthcare
and health
education
Air quality
monitoring
information
Weather Related
Injury:
Unintentional injury
associated with
deteriorating
infrastructure from
frost heave and
intense rain events
0.91
0.63
1.20
*p < 0.05; **p< 0.01
Mitigation, Adaptation, Intervention
Intervention
Weather Injury
Hypothermia
Weather Mortality
Frostbite
Southeast
0.55*
Water Security
PSP
Source
Timely severe weather
notifications
(October ‘13 – Present)
NOAA Hazards: Winter
advisories, flood
warnings
Newsletter: Collection of
climate and weatherrelated information
sources
(October ‘13 – August
‘14)
Multiple sources.
Frequent Topics: Food
safety, wildlife patterns,
climate policy, current
research
Photo Credit: S. Laura Rauch, AP
ENVIRONMENTAL EXPOSURES