Copper (II) Sulfide Solar
Cleantech to Market
Siong Ang
Sushil Jacob
Andrew Jones
Pablo Menendez
Carlo Woods
May 7th, 2010
TEAM OVERVIEW
Our team combines expertise in chemistry, engineering, law, and
business
LBNL
Dr. Cyrus Wadia
MBA Program
Engineering
School
Andrew Jones
Law School
Siong Ang
Pablo Menendez
Carlo Woods
Sushil Jacob
PROBLEM – SCALING AFFORDABLE SOLAR ENERGY
Limited scale and cost structure of current PV technologies leave
1.6 billion people without access to electricity
Major solar PV installations around the world
Sub Sahara Africa
500M
Potential Energy
India
800M
China
200M
Annual
Worldwide
Energy
Demand
17,000TWh
Installed
Potential
Rest of World
100M
Sources: PV Research, Global installed PV base, 2005 and WEO, 2004
Current PV
Technologies
Document number
3
PV MARKET DEVELOPMENT
Thin Film Technology addresses many of the challenges with
crystal silicon technology
US PV Shipments: Crystal Silicon and Thin Film Cells (2002-2006) (% MW)
100%
7%
90%
80%
11%
12%
24%
26%
35%
70%
31%
35%
60%
44%
50%
TF
44%
40%
30%
Polycrystalline
Monocrystalline
67%
54%
53%
20%
32%
10%
25%
0%
2002
Source: SBI
2003
2004
2005
2006
Document number
4
PV MARKET DEVELOPMENT
Current Thin Film technologies do not address the scale issues
Estimation of Thin Film market share
segmentation by technologies (2006)
Drawbacks of current Thin Film technologies
a-Si
• Dependent on Si
• Silicon shortage already jeopardized PV
solar growth in 2004 and 2005
a-Si
CIGS
−Indium and Gallium are rare materials
and could potentially face supply
limitations
CdTe
57% - 64%
24% - 40%
CIGS
4% - 10%
Source: SBI
• Thin film materials used include: Copper,
Indium and Gallium
CdTe
• Potential shortage in Te, a rare metal that
tripled in price over 2006-2007
• Cd is toxic. Needed to create an insurance
and recycling program to enter Europe
• Inflexible glass used in its solar cells
Document number
5
OUR TECHNOLOGY
Our solution combines the strengths of Thin Film technology with
abundant metals that can be scaled
Thin Film
Technology
Source: Team analysis
Our
Technology!
Abundant
materials
Document number
6
OUR TECHNOLOGY
Our technology replaces CdTe with Cu2S, lowering toxicity, price,
thickness and temperature synthesis
Thin Film
Technology
ITO1
Cu2S
CdS
Al
Conductive backing
Heterojunction
Transparent conductor
O(<100 nm)
• Low material
quantity
requirements
• High
manufacturability
• High flexibility
Cu2S
• Cheap
• Low toxicity
• Low temperature
synthesis
• High absorption
characteristics
• Abundant
• Mined in USA
• High theoretical
efficiency
• Low diffusion length
1 International PCT (WIPO): #WO 2009/111388 A2
1) Also may include thin layer of PEDOT:PSS
Source: Study Group Team
Document number
7
OUR TECHNOLOGY
Cu2S provides several competitive advantages, though its 1.6% lab
efficiency remains a hurdle to commercialization
Key Components
Properties
Cu2S
Thin-Film Technology
Flexibility
High
Thickness
Low – Very Low
Weight
Low – Very Low
Cost
Low – Very Low
Manufacturability
High
Abundance
High
Toxicity
Low
Efficiency
Low
Materials (Cu2S)
Source: Study Group Team








Theoretical efficiency > Si
Document number
8
TECHNICAL ROADMAP
Cu2S could be ready for commercialization with 2 years of research
outside the university laboratory
Growth rate of other TF technologies on the past
14
Potential growth rate of our TF technology
14
CdTe - Boeing
CIGS - Kodak
a-Si - RCA
12
12
Commercialization
10
8
4% Growth
Rate
2% Growth Rate
6
Efficiency (%)
10
Efficiency (%)
Cu2S – Modular Solar
Today
8
6
4
4
2% Growth Rate
2
1% Growth Rate
2
0
0
0
2
8
6
4
10
Technology Life (in years)
Source: Study National Renewable Energy Laboratory
12
0
2
8
6
4
10
Technology Life (in years)
12
Document number
9
MARKET OPPORTUNITY AND TARGET MARKETS
At present our technology is best-suited for the emerging off-grid
market.
Market
Applications
Segments
Potential
DEVELOPED WORLD:
Centralized generation
(Grid-tied)
Utility-Scale Power
Plants
• Technology needs 20
years of proven durability
• Extra land needed to
compensate for cell’s low
efficiency
DEVELOPED WORLD:
Distributed generation
(Grid-tied)
Residential
Commercial
Industrial
Gov’t buildings
• Too many Thin Film
incumbent players with
higher efficiency
• Limited space creates an
opportunity cost from net
metering
EMERGING MARKETS:
Distributed generation
(Off-grid)
Rural Electrification
Consumer and Portable
Electronics
• Few incumbents in rural
market
• Utilizes our technology’s
key strengths
Source: Team analysis
OUR INITIAL MARKET
Characteristics of the rural, off-grid emerging market match our
technology attributes: Low energy demand, low income consumers
Thin Film
Technology
Our
Technology
Abundant
Our Initial
materials
Market!
• Potential Rural Market = 800M
people
• Rural India represents 50% of
national GDP
• India growing at 8.5% annually
• Stable, unified democratic
country with progressive solar
incentives
Indian Market
Source: The Hindu Newspaper; VNL, Census of India, Team Analysis
Document number
11
OUR CUSTOMER PROFILE
The Indian rural customer has basic needs (lighting) and growing
sophisticated needs (cell phone charging)
Issue
Lighting
Phone Charging
Problem
Dirty kerosene lamps
Low access to charging source
Income Bracket
Bottom of Pyramid ( < $1/day)
Low income ($2-6 /day)
Market Size
400 M
294 M
Penetration
56% of rural households lack reliable
access to electricity
58% of rural areas covered by cell
phone networks
Value
Proposition
• Better lighting
• Save on yearly kerosene costs
• Cleaner indoor air quality
• Convenient, reliable cell phone
charging source
Source: Team Analysis; Interviews; Census of India, FICCI
Document number
12
OUR PRODUCT: A MODULAR AND PORTABLE SOLAR CELL
Our Product: 1 Watt, flexible, modular, scalable and mail-able solar
panel that costs $0.50-$0.70 / W to produce
Standardized
1W, 15” X 8”
lightweight cell
Modular and
scalable design
Mail-a-solar
distribution
model
Easy deployment
Addressing a
potential $2.2 B
market
Plug and play with
existing portable
devices
Source: Team analysis
Charges lantern
for night use
COMPETITOR ANALYSIS
We are differentiated from major thin-film competitors by our
target market, lower cost and choice of a highly abundant metal
Our
Technology
Markets
Target Market
Utilities Power Plant
Utilities Power Plant
Thin Film Solar
Manufacturers
Off grid; portable
electronics
Cost Per Watt
$0.93
$1.00
Not disclosed
$0.50-0.70
Metals
Cd Te
Cu, In, Ga, Se
Inorganic
Cu(II)S
Cell Efficiency
11.1%
16.4%
9%
1.6% (6% in 2014)
Abundance
Low
Medium
Low
High
Technology
Sources: First Solar, Q12010 Investor briefing; Nanosolar White Paper, Sep 2009; Solexant raises $4.3M for new thin film solar cell, Aug 30, 2007 Document number
14
PATHWAY TO MARKET
Our core competencies lie in technology innovation and research.
We will partner with local distributors to get our product to market
Initial
Positioning
COMPONENTS
SUPPLIER
Research
Technology
innovation
Subsequent
Integration
SYSTEM
INTEGRATOR
DISTRIBUTOR
System
Integration
Local
distribution
Financing
CUSTOMER
Installation
Source: Team analysis (phone interviews and email exchanges)
FINANCIALS
Cu2S technology can reach 6% milestone in 2 years for around
$1.5M
Associated Costs
Target areas for cell improvement
1. Improve uniformity and purity in
layers
Labor
Labor
2. Improve back and front contacts
3.
Equipment Equipment
$360,000 , 30%
$360,000 , 35%
Chemicals Chemicals
$14,892 ,
1%
Gases
Gases
Utilities
Utilities
Rent
Rent
$10,000 , 1%
$4,147 , 0%
$14,892 , 1%
, 3%
$4,147 , $36,000
0%
0,000 , 1%
$600,000 , 59%
$800,000 , 65%
Improve uniformity at heterojunction
Total Projected Cost:
$1.245 M
$36,000 , 4%
Source: Study Group Team
Document number
16
FINANCIALS
With $2M seed funding and $15M series A in 2013, our technology
will turn a profit in 5 – 7 years and generate a 5x return in 10 years
Projected Investments and Revenue
$20M
$18M
$16M
$14M
$12M
$10M
$8M
$6M
$4M
$2M
$0
($2M)
($4M)
($6M)
($8M)
($10M)
($12M)
($14M)
($16M)
($18M)
($20M)
Seed Funding
(continue
research)
Source: Team analysis
2011
Break Even
Series A Financing
(build fab.)
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Free Cash Flow
Net Income
Document number
17