September 25, 2016
On the eve of the first presidential debate, the race between Donald Trump and Hillary
Clinton is in a statistical dead heat.
By:
R. Kelly Myers
Marlin Fitzwater Fellow, Franklin Pierce University
603.433.3982
Portsmouth, NH. – The Presidential race between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat
Hillary Clinton has gotten tighter as the first presidential debate approaches. In our most recent
nation-wide polling, Clinton leads Trump 45-to-43 percent among likely voters, compared to 44to-41 percent in early September.
The first Presidential Debate is likely to see high viewership, as 87 percent of respondents
surveyed reported that they definitely (56%) or probably (31%) will watch the debate. And while
most say the debate performances are unlikely to change their planned vote, a small but
potentially significant minority (16%) indicate that they could change their mind about who to
vote for.
These results are based on a recent Franklin Pierce University / Boston Herald Poll conducted
by RKM Research, September 18 –22, 2016. The survey is based on responses from 1,017
randomly selected likely voters. Interviews were conducted by landline and cellular telephone.
The maximum sampling margin of error is +/- 3.1 percent.
Favorability ratings of presidential candidates:
(Sept. 25, 2016)
Favorability Ratings of presidential candidates (Sept. 25, 2016):
Hillary Clinton
54
43
Donald Trump
56
41
32
Gary Johnson
22
25 14
Jill Stein
Percent
Unfavorable
Favorable
Our polls continue to show that the two presidential candidates remain very unpopular, with
more than one-half of voters holding unfavorable views toward both candidates.
Donald Trump receives a favorable rating of 41 percent, and an unfavorable rating of 56
percent. Likewise, Hillary Clinton receives a favorable rating of 43 percent, and an unfavorable
rating of 54 percent. Both Trump’s and Clinton’s net favorability ratings, the percentage who
view them favorably minus the percentage who view them unfavorably, remain firmly
underwater at -15 percent and -11 percent, respectively.
Favorability
ratings ofratings
Donald
TrumpTrump
compared
over
time:
Favorability
of Donald
compared
over
time
Donald Trump
100
Unfavorable
58
57
56
40
41
9/4/16
9/25/16
38
Favorable
0
7/19/16
Sept. 25, 2016
No opinion
3%
Very
Unfavorable
48%
Very
favorable
26%
Somewhat
favorable
15%
Somewhat
unfavorable
8%
The unpopularity of the two leading presidential candidates continues to be exacerbated by the
intensity of voter sentiment. Nearly one-half of voters (48%) hold a very unfavorable view of
Donald Trump. Forty-one percent of voters hold a very (26%) or somewhat (15%) favorable
view toward Trump. These results have remained essentially unchanged since July.
Favorability
of Hillary
Clinton
compared
over
time
Favorability
Ratingsratings
of Hillary
Clinton
compared
over
time:
Hillary Clinton
100
Unfavorable
Favorable
53
42
55
42
54
43
7/19/16
9/4/16
9/25/16
0
Sept. 25, 2016
No opinion
3%
Very
Unfavorable
47%
Very
favorable
25%
Somewhat
favorable
18%
Somewhat
unfavorable
7%
Hillary Clinton also has similar favorability problems. Slightly less than one-half of voters (47%)
hold a very unfavorable view of her. Forty-three percent of voters hold very (25%) or somewhat
(18%) favorable view toward Clinton. As with Donald Trump, these results remain essentially
unchanged since July.
If the election for U.S. President were held today, which of the candidates
the election
for US President were held today, which of the
would you If
vote
for?
candidates would you vote for?
July 2016
September 4, 2016
September 25, 2016
Donald Trump
41
41
43
Hillary Clinton
44
44
45
Gary Johnson
8
7
6
Jill Stein
2
3
2
Other
3
1
1
Unsure
3
3
3
0
100
0
100
0
100
Among: All voters (includes “forced choice” responses)
If the election were held today, voters are most likely to vote for Hillary Clinton (45%) or Donald
Trump (43%). Few voters said that they would vote for Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson
(6%), Green Party candidate Jill Stein (2%) or some other candidate (1%). Only three percent of
voters remain unsure who they would vote for if the election were held today.
The margin of difference between Clinton and Trump is just 1.6 points, well within the margin of
sampling error of the poll.
Firmness
Is that a firm choice, or could you change your mind between now
the general election:
ofand
Presidential
Vote Choice:
Clinton (45%)
15
85
Trump (43%)
16
84
Could Change Mind
Firm Choice
Both candidates have solidified their base of support, and few currently planning to vote for
either candidate are likely to change their mind. According to our most recent poll, only 15
percent of Clinton supporters, and 16 percent of Trump supporters, said that they could change
their mind between now and Election Day.
Presidential
vote choice
compared
by selected
characteristics
Presidential
Vote Choice
Compared
by Selected
Characteristics
Clinton
Trump
45
Overall
43
8
Republicans
28
Independents
Democrats
Men
Women
81
84
47
6
39
51
50
37
Percent
As expected, presidential vote choice is strongly linked with party identification. Eighty-four
percent of self-identified Democrats said that they would vote for Hillary Clinton, and 81 percent
of self-identified Republicans said that they would vote for Donald Trump. More Independents
said that they would vote for Trump (47%) than Clinton (28%).
Clinton holds a 14-point edge over Trump among female voters, while Trump holds a 11-point
advantage among male voters.
Do that
you think
thatClinton
Hillary Clinton
should
or should
required to
to release
Do you think
Hillary
should
or should
notnot
bebe
required
release all her medical records, or medical issues related to her
all her medical
records, or medical issues related to her health?
health?
Overall
16 21 19
Republicans
9 13 16
57
Independents
15 14 20
44
Democrats
23
29
22
39
20
Percent
Strongly
should not
Moderately
should not
Moderately
should
Strongly
Should
After disclosing she was diagnosed with pneumonia in early September, likely voters were
asked if they think Hillary Clinton should or should not be required to release more of her
medical records to the public. More than one-half (58%) of voters strongly (39%) or moderately
(19%) think that she should be required to release all of her medical records. Strong majorities
of Republicans (73%) and Independents (64%) think Clinton should be required to release her
medical records, while slightly more than one-half of Democrats (52%) do not think she should
be required to do so.
Do you think that Donald Trump should or should not be required to release
Do you think that Donald Trump should or should not be required to
his tax returns?
release his tax returns?
Overall
Republicans
9 12 18
16 16
26
Independents
5 16 15
Democrats
37 11
56
38
54
76
Percent
Strongly
should not
Moderately
should not
Moderately
should
Strongly
Should
Likely voters were also asked if Donald Trump should be required to release his tax returns.
Three-quarters of voters (74%) strongly (56%) or moderately (18%) think that he should be
required to release his tax returns. While there is a difference in the intensity of this position
linked to party identification, majorities of Republicans (64%), Independents (69%) and
Democrats (87%) all think Trump should be required to release his tax returns.
Do you think that Hillary Clinton’s remarks about some of Donald
Do you
think that Hillary Clinton’s remarks about some of Donald Trump’s
Trump’s supporters as a “basket of deplorables” are appropriate or
supporters
as a “basket
of deplorables”
appropriate
or inappropriate for a
inappropriate
for a candidate
runningare
for U.S.
President?
candidate running for U.S. President?
Overall
Republicans
Independents
Democrats
46
71
25 13 11
19 52
59
20
17 13 9
31
22
20
Percent
Strongly
inappropriate
Moderately
inappropriate
Moderately
appropriate
Strongly
appropriate
Voters were asked about recent comments by Hillary Clinton, saying that many of Donald
Trump’s supporters could be placed in a “basket of deplorables.” Nearly three-quarters of all
voters (71%) felt these comments were strongly (46%) or moderately (25%) inappropriate. A
majority of Democrats (51%) and Independents (76%), and nearly all Republicans (90%) said
the comments were inappropriate.
Do you think that Donald Trump’s sometimes favorable remarks about
you think that
Donald
Trump’s
favorable
remarks
RussianDoPresident
Vladimir
Putin
are sometimes
appropriate
or inappropriate
for a
about Russian President Vladimir Putin are appropriate or
candidate
running for
President?
inappropriate
for U.S.
a candidate
running for U.S. President?
Overall
38
Republicans
15 26
Independents
Democrats
23
41
61
22 9
34
14
13 24 11
22 8 4
Percent
Strongly
inappropriate
Moderately
inappropriate
Moderately
appropriate
Strongly
appropriate
Voters were also asked about Donald Trump’s occasionally favorable statements toward
Russian President Vladimir Putin. Sixty-one percent of likely voters said such statements toward
Putin were strongly (38%) or moderately (23%) inappropriate. Most Democrats (83%) and a
majority of Independents (54%) said Trump’s views towards Putin are inappropriate, while
Republicans were more divided, with 48 percent saying such views are appropriate and 41
percent saying they are inappropriate.
you
may know,
the first
presidential
debate
willbe
beheld
held next
next week on
As you As
may
know,
the first
presidential
debate
will
week on Monday September 26. How likely is it that you will watch
Monday,
September
26. How likely is it that you will watch the debate?
the
debate?
Overall
31
56
Republicans
37 28
61
Independents
10 13 28
Democrats
48
48
44
34
53
Percent
Definitely will
not
Probably will
not
Probably will
Definitely will
The first Presidential Debate is likely to see strong viewership ratings. Voters were asked how
likely it is that they will watch the first debate scheduled for September 26. The vast majority of
voters (87%) reported that they definitely (56%) or probably (31%) will watch the first debate.
However, among self-identified Independents, a significant minority (23%) said they are not
likely to watch the debate.
How likely is it that you could change your mind about who to support for
president How
based
oniswhat
see and
hear
from
candidates
in the
likely
it thatyou
you could
change
your
mindthe
about
who to
support
for
president
based
on
what
you
see
and
hear
from
the
debates and press coverage?
candidates in the debates and press coverage?
Overall
53
30
133
Republicans
52
33
124
Independents
Democrats
41
57
29
20 7
26 122
Percent
Definitely will
not
Probably will
not
Probably
could
Definitely
could
Despite indications of strong viewership, it appears most likely voters will be watching to
reinforce their vote choice rather than to influence it. Likely voters were asked about the chance
that the debate, and coverage of the debate, could influence their vote choice. Eighty-three
percent of voters said the debates will probably (30%) or definitely (53%) not cause them to
change their mind about who to vote for. These results were similarly high among current
Clinton supporters (84%) and Trump supporters (91%).
However, in such a close election, there is a small but potentially significant minority (16%) who
reported that the debate could cause them to change their mind.
Who do you think is more likely to benefit from the first presidential
Who do you
think is more likely to benefit from the first presidential debate?
debate?
Clinton
Trump
37
Overall
35
Republicans
15
Independents
20
Democrats
Men
Women
62
59
34
12
32
42
43
28
Percent
Voters are currently divided on who is likely to come out ahead after the first Presidential
Debate. When asked who is more likely to benefit from the debate, 37 percent predicted Clinton
and 35 percent predicted Trump, while 10 percent believed both candidates will benefit and 18
percent were unsure.
Do you think
thethink
presidential
debates
would
be be
better
with
Do you
the presidential
debates
would
better
withor
orwithout a
moderator?
without a moderator?
Overall
Trump Voters
16
80
28
66
5
Clinton Voters
92
Percent
Without Moderator
With Moderator
Despite some comments by Donald Trump for the debates to be held without a moderator, most
likely voters think the debates will be better with a moderator. Eighty percent of likely voters
indicated that the presidential debate would be better with a moderator. Majorities of both
Clinton supporters (92%) and Trump supporters (66%) feel the debates will be better served
with a moderator.
Now I’m going to read to you a list of topics. When I’m done, I’d like you to
Now I’m going to read to you a list of topics. When I’m done, I’d like
identify the
most the
important
youtopics
are interested
in learning
about
youtwo
to identify
two mosttopics
important
you are interested
in
about during
the presidential debates.
during thelearning
presidential
debates.
The leadership skills of the
candidates
20
The honesty and integrity of the
candidates
31
The health of the candidates
3
The likeability of the candidates
3
The domestic social and economic
policy differences between the
candidates
49
The foreign policy differences
between the candidates
41
The candidates' vision for the future
of the U.S.
34
The experience of the candidates
10
Other
4
Unsure
1
0
100
Voters were asked to identify the two most important topics they are interested in learning about
in the upcoming presidential debates. Voters were most likely to cite the domestic, social and
economic policy differences between the candidates (49%) and the foreign policy differences
between the candidates (41%). These results suggest that the candidate who is best able to
articulate specific policy differences between themselves and their opponent could be better
positioned coming out of the first debate.
Methodology
The results outlined in this report are based on a survey conducted by RKM Research
on behalf of Franklin Pierce University and the Boston Herald. All interviews were
conducted by paid, trained and professionally supervised interviewers.
The survey is based on a probabilistic sample of 1,017 likely voters in the United States.
Interviews were conducted by landline and cellular telephone, September 18 – 22, 2016.
The sampling margin of error is +/- 3.1 percent.
The data are weighted to adjust for probability of selection, respondent gender,
respondent age and region of the US. The four regions of the country as reported in this
poll are:
East: Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island,
Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, West
Virginia and District of Columbia.
Mid-West: Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa,
Missouri, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska and Kansas.
South: Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Kentucky,
Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma and Texas
West: Montana, Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, Nevada, New
Mexico, California, Oregon, Alaska, Hawaii and Washington.
In addition to sampling error, all surveys have other potential sources of non-sampling
error including question wording effects, question order effects and non-response.
Any figures shown in the graphics that do not add up to precisely 100 percent are the
result of rounding error.
More information available at www.rkm-research.com (603.433.3982).