Exposure of the Colombian Caribbean
coast, including San Andrés Island, to
tropical storms and hurricanes, 1900–2010
Juan Carlos Ortiz Royero
Natural Hazards
Journal of the International Society
for the Prevention and Mitigation of
Natural Hazards
ISSN 0921-030X
Volume 61
Number 2
Nat Hazards (2012) 61:815-827
DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-0069-1
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DOI 10.1007/s11069-011-0069-1
ORIGINAL PAPER
Exposure of the Colombian Caribbean coast, including
San Andrés Island, to tropical storms and hurricanes,
1900–2010
Juan Carlos Ortiz Royero
Received: 4 August 2011 / Accepted: 14 December 2011 / Published online: 27 December 2011
Ó Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011
Abstract An analysis of the exposure of the Colombian Caribbean coast to the effect
of tropical storms and hurricanes was conducted using historical records from between
1900 and 2010. The Colombian Caribbean coast is approximately 1,760 km long, and the
main coastal cities in this important region are Riohacha (RIO), Santa Marta (STA),
Barranquilla (BAQ), and Cartagena (CTG). The surface extension of the Colombian
Caribbean is almost 590,000 km2. The cumulative number of events was used to
determine the exposure and to identify the most vulnerable zones on the continental
coast of Colombia and in the country’s insular Caribbean. Although the Colombian
Caribbean coast is not registered as a potentially vulnerable zone in international databases, there have been significant events in the region, some of which even hit land.
The results show that the island of San Andrés (SA) and the Department of Guajira are
the zones most likely to be affected by storms in the Colombian Caribbean. Hurricane
Joan in October of 1988 has been the most devastating event in the history of hurricanes
in Colombian waters.
Keywords
Hurricanes Caribbean Colombia Climatology
1 Introduction
Hurricanes are a very common phenomenon in the Atlantic Ocean. There, they develop
over warm waters between June and November, with surface winds playing an important
role in their formation. In general, hurricanes form over the Atlantic due to the convergence of easterly winds on the West African coast, as explained in Mo et al. (2001). The
historical distribution shows that the Atlantic zone, including the Caribbean Sea, experiences 11% of hurricanes, whereas the Western Pacific zone features the highest percentage
J. C. Ortiz Royero (&)
Departamento de Fı́sica, Universidad del Norte, Km 5 a Puerto Colombia, Barranquilla, Colombia
e-mail: [email protected]; [email protected]
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of hurricanes at 39% according to Rubiera (2005). As seen in Fig. 1, the peak of the season
is from mid-August to late October. However, deadly hurricanes can occur anytime in the
hurricane season.
Historically, the southeastern coasts of the United States and the Greater Antilles
(Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Cuba) have been the zones most affected by hurricanes in the
Caribbean Sea. Researching North America, Zandbergen (2008) provides detailed information regarding the hurricanes that have hit the coasts of the United States since 1823.
Shapiro and Goldenberg (1997) provide a detailed analysis of the relationship between
surface sea temperature (SST) and cyclone formation in the Atlantic, demonstrating the
lack of correlation between this factor and major hurricanes and implying that the
underlying SST is not a significant factor in the development of the cyclones. Meanwhile,
Bell and Ray (2004) calculate the radial profiles of earth-relative wind speeds using the
Hurricane Research Division flight-level data archive for 1977–1999 North Atlantic hurricanes. The most important conclusions were as follows: (1) the two-parameter radius of
maximum wind and maximum wind speed explain sufficient variance in hurricane-force
wind radii (especially for minimal hurricanes) to warrant the development of a model that
would predict hurricane-force wind radii based on these two storm parameters and
(2) hurricane-loss modelers can benefit from the cumulative probability distributions that
are generated.
Few studies have been conducted in Central America, although government agencies
have conducted some studies that have analyzed the damages and human casualties caused
by hurricanes. Rubiera (2005) presents a general study of the Caribbean region, pointing
out that one of the most active cycles occurred during the first half of the twentieth century.
Between the 1920s and the 1950s, the Caribbean zone was affected by devastating hurricanes. The most devastating hurricane on the island of Cuba, for example, was in 1932,
which affected the southern zone of Santa Cruz. There were approximately 3,033 deaths.
The second most devastating hurricane was Flora in 1963, which caused approximately
1,200 deaths.
Gray (1984) showed how hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin is affected by the
ENSO phenomenon or El Niño-Southern Oscillation. In general, Atlantic hurricane activity
is reduced during El Niño and increased during La Niña.
Fig. 1 The official hurricane season for the Atlantic basin (the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the
Gulf of Mexico) is from June 1 to November 30. Source: http://hurricanes.noaa.gov/prepare/season.htm
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Although little has been published regarding the impact of hurricanes in Colombia, the
following studies are worth highlighting: Ortiz and Mercado (2006) produced a study of
the impact of extreme swell conditions from hurricanes on the Magdalena River Delta,
which corresponds to the entrance of the Barranquilla Port. Ortiz (2007) points out the
relationship between storms and hurricanes that have crossed through Colombian waters
since 1900 but does not analyze the characteristics and potential effects of these storms.
Ortiz et al. (2008) created a simulation of the winds and swell generated by Hurricane
Joan in 1988. A similar study of Hurricane Lenny was also conducted in 1999 (Ortiz
2009).
The purpose of this article is to analyze the current state of knowledge regarding
hurricanes that have affected Colombia based on historical records from between 1900 and
2010 and thereby to establish the degree of vulnerability of the Colombian coast given the
frequency and intensity of the storms in this zone of the Caribbean Sea.
2 Description of study area
The Caribbean Sea borders South America to the south, Central America to the west,
the Lesser Antilles to the east, and the Greater Antilles (Cuba, Haiti, Dominican
Republic, and Puerto Rico) to the north. It is connected to the Gulf of Mexico by the
Yucatan channel to the northwest and to the tropical Atlantic Ocean to the east. Figure 1 shows the Colombian Caribbean and the location of the island of San Andrés.
The Colombian Caribbean coast is approximately 1,760 km long, and the main coastal
cities in this important region are Riohacha (RIO), Santa Marta (STA), Barranquilla
(BAQ), and Cartagena (CTG). The surface extension of the Colombian Caribbean is
close to 590,000 km2. These sea and river port cities are of great economic importance
for Colombia’s economy. Of the four cities, the one with the largest population is
Barranquilla (2,400,000 inhabitants), followed by Cartagena (1,200,000 inhabitants),
Santa Marta (415,000 inhabitants), and Riohacha (150,000 inhabitants). The first three
districts form an urban-port passageway for the coastal Colombian Caribbean, where
more than 40% of the population of the Colombian Caribbean is concentrated. The
most popular recreational swimming pools, visited by tourists year-round, are also
found here, with the busiest tourist seasons occurring from June to July and from
December to January. The most visited locations include El Rodadero (STA), Puerto
Colombia (BAQ), and Bocagrande (CTG). Bocagrande has historical zones featuring
seventeenth century castles and city walls, making it the main tourist destination in
Colombia. Puerto Bolı́var, which is 166 km from Riohacha, is the largest port in the
Colombian Caribbean. The coal from the Cerrejón Mines, 150 km to the south, is the
main export from this port, where boats carrying up to 175,000 tons of cargo are
received (Viloria 2006).
San Andrés is located in the Caribbean Sea, approximately 192 km to the east of
Nicaragua, northeast of Costa Rica, and 775 km to the northeast of the Colombian coast.
San Andrés Island is the largest of the islands in San Andrés, Providencia, and Santa
Catalina Archipelago and has a total area of 26 km2. It has belonged to Colombia since
1803. The northeastern part of the island is surrounded by a small coral reef and several
cays that are home to a variety of marine flora and fauna, which attract crowds of tourists
every year (approximately 350,000). San Andrés has an approximate population of 75,000
inhabitants (Meisel 2003) (Fig. 2).
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Fig. 2 Bathy-topography map of Colombian territorial waters and the island of San Andrés. The red
crosses correspond to CTG, BAQ, STA, and RIO, and the red circle corresponds to San Andrés Island
3 Methodology
3.1 Databases
The HURDAT (HURricane DATa) database, which is available at http://weather.unisys.
com/hurricane/index.html, was analyzed in this study. This database, which belongs to the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), is the largest official database
containing historical records for the storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean, including
the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. The HURDAT database is widely used
worldwide for different purposes, including addressing coastal risks, analyzing potential
losses, verifying and validating models, and analyzing climate change, among others. The
storms that hit the Colombian Caribbean Sea were analyzed and quantified using the grids
located between 68° and 84° WEST and between 8° and 16° NORTH as the geographical
domain.
The methodology described in Zandbergen (2008) was used to calculate the vulnerability of the territory. The cumulative number of impacts was analyzed, and a qualitative
analysis was conducted of the distance from the eye of each hurricane to the coast and of
its sustained wind speed. According to Ortiz (2007), approximately 57 storms have passed
through the Colombian Caribbean prior to 2008; however, three events that occurred in
2008, 2009, and 2010 also need to be included: Paloma in 2008, Ida in 2009, and Tomas in
2010. This addition increases the number of events to 60 in 110 years. Figure 3 shows the
activity of all of the storms between 1900 and 2010.
3.2 Significant events
According to Willoughby and Rahn (2004), the damage caused by storm winds is confined
to a radius of no more than 100 to 150 km. Even if the eye of the storm is outside of this
range, effects such as deep-sea waves, rain, and ocean swells can pose a hazard for coastal
areas. Figure 4 shows the most significant events caused by the proximity of the eye to the
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Fig. 3 Historical trajectory of storms and hurricanes in the Colombian Caribbean, 1900–2010
Colombian coast. Additionally, satellite images providing meteorological information
regarding the events were inserted using Google EarthÒ and the HURSAT (HURricane
SATelite data) tool. Unfortunately, these images are not available for the 1909 or 1911
storms or for Irene (1971), as can be observed in Fig. 5 a and b. Figure 6a–c shows a
satellite photograph of the most significant storms in the Colombian Caribbean Sea.
Table 1 summarizes the characteristics of the six events that have significantly affected
the continental portion of the Colombian Caribbean. The closest distance between the eye
of the storm and the main coastal cities was calculated, as was the intensity of the strongest
winds at that moment.
Fig. 4 Historical trajectory of storms and hurricanes with a distance of less than 150 km from the hurricane
eye
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Fig. 5 a Historical trajectories of Joan 1988 (middle), Bret 1993 (bottom), and Cesar 1996 (top) and the
location of the main cities of the Colombian Caribbean based on Google EarthÒ and HURSAT (HURricane
SATelite) data. b Historical trajectories of Joan 1988 (pink and red), Cesar 1996 (yellow), and Beta 2005
(green) near San Andrés Island in the Colombian Caribbean based on Google EarthÒ and HURSAT
(HURricane SATelite) data
The insular Caribbean zone of Colombia includes the archipelago of San Andrés,
Providencia, and Santa Catalina, which is composed of three main islands and a group of
smaller islands, atolls, and coral reefs. With an extension of approximately 300,000 km2,
Fig. 6 a Satellite image of Joan 1988 based on Google EarthÒ and HURSAT (HURricane SATelite) data. c
b Satellite image of Cesar 1996 based on Google EarthÒ and HURSAT (HURricane SATelite) data.
c Satellite image of Beta 2005 based on Google EarthÒ and HURSAT (HURricane SATelite) data
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Table 1 Storms and hurricanes near the Colombian Caribbean coast
Name
Category
Date
Storm No. 10
Tropical storm
1909-10-06
Storm No. 4
IRENE
JOAN
BRET
CESAR
Tropical storm
Tropical storm
Tropical storm
1911-09-07
1971-09-17
Maximum
wind (km/h)
RIO (350.6)
55.6
STA (205.5)
55.6
BAQ (75)
55.6
CTG (64)
74.1
RIO (130.6)
101.9
STA (208.3)
101.9
BAQ (270)
101.9
CTG (375)
101.9
RIO (108)
64.8
STA (133)
64.8
BAQ (160)
64.8
CTG (228)
64.8
RIO (26)
111.1
H1
STA (64)
120.3
H1
BAQ (79)
129.6
H1
CTG (116)
138.9
Tropical storm
Tropical storm
1988-10-18
Closest distance
to coast (km)
1993-08-09
1996-07-26
RIO (120)
74.1
STA (60)
74.1
BAQ (46)
74.1
CTG (107)
64.8
RIO (96)
74.1
STA (115)
83.3
BAQ (174)
83.3
CTG (150)
92.6
the archipelago accounts for almost 10% of the total Colombian Caribbean zone. It is home
to the second largest barrier reef in the Caribbean, one of the most productive marinecoastal systems in the Atlantic Ocean and Colombia. The northern and western sides of the
island of San Andrés are permanently exposed to winds; in some months, such as January
and February, these winds can reach a speed of 18.5 m/s, which, if sustained, can cause
significant surges. San Andrés has been affected by the same hurricanes that have hit
Providencia, although the intensity has been lower. Cyclonic activity in the archipelago has
been more intense than on the continental coast. Figure 7 shows the trajectories of the
storms occurring close to the islands since 1851. Until 2010, the seven most significant
events, given their proximity to this zone of the Colombian Caribbean, have been Storm
No. 4 in 1911, Hattie in 1961, Alma in 1970, Joan in 1988, Cesar in 1996, Katrina in 1999,
and Beta in 2005. Table 2 summarizes the characteristics of these events.
4 Results and discussion
The previous results show that a total of 10 storms significantly affected the Colombian
Caribbean during the period between 1900 and 2010. The continental area was affected by
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Fig. 7 Trajectories of the events that have affected the archipelago since 1851 (Plazas et al. 2011)
Table 2 Storms and hurricanes close to the Archipelago of San Andrés
Name
Category
Date
Closest distance
to coast (km)
Maximum
wind (km/h)
Storm No. 4
H1
1911-09-09
89
138.9
HATTIE
Tropical storm
1961-09-17
60.1
101.8
ALMA
Tropical depression
1970-05-18
131.1
46.3
JOAN
H3
1988-19-21
73.8
203.7
CESAR
Tropical storm
1996-07-28
62.7
120.4
KATRINA
Tropical depression
199-10-29
60.5
55.6
BETA
Tropical storm
2005-10-28
70
92.6
6 storms (5 tropical storms and a Category 1 hurricane), whereas the insular area was
affected by 7 storms (1 tropical depression, 3 tropical storms, a Category 1 hurricane, and a
Category 3 hurricane), as shown in Fig. 8.
Of the ten events, four have hit land: (1) Storm No. 4 of 1911, which struck the island of
San Andrés after having been upgraded to a category 1 hurricane; (2) Joan 1988, which
was a category 1 hurricane while it was off the continental coast of Colombia but hit land
as a tropical storm; (3) Bret 1993, which hit the Caribbean coast as a tropical storm; and (4)
Cesar 1996, which hit land as a tropical storm. Thus, the continental portion of the
Colombian Caribbean has only been hit by tropical storms, whereas the archipelago of San
Andrés experienced a Category 1 hurricane.
Even if they do not hit land or if the eye is farther than 150 km away, hurricanes can
produce significant secondary effects such as rains and ocean swells. On this basis, we
defined four zones according to the frequency of storms in each one. Thus, we established
that the area of the Colombian Caribbean that is most vulnerable to storms is the archipelago of San Andrés (AREA 1), followed by the continental coast. With respect to the
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Fig. 8 Events that have affected
the Colombian Caribbean
coast—1900–2010
latter, it was observed that RIO (AREA 2), together with the entire coast of the Department
of Guajira, is the second most vulnerable area, followed by BAQ, STA, CTG (AREA 3),
and finally, by the Gulf of Urabá zone (AREA 4), which is the southernmost portion of the
coast, and hence the most sheltered from cyclonic activity. Figure 9 shows the number of
events in each zone; Figure 10 presents a descriptive vulnerability map based on the
number of events, where 1 represents the greatest vulnerability and 4 the least.
One of the most significant events was Hurricane Joan in 1988. On October 10 at 18:00
(local time), tropical depression #11 from the Central Atlantic cyclonic season formed
(8.90°N and 42.20°W). On October 18 at 18:00 (local time), it became a Category 1
hurricane featuring maximum winds of 120 km/h and 990 mb of pressure. Only 1 day
later, Joan had reached Category 2 status and entered the zone known as the Gulf of
Darién, close to Panamá.
According to the newspaper El Tiempo, the city of Cartagena, called ‘‘La Heroica,’’
suffered serious flooding associated with storm surge and rain (Fig. 11). The route through
the city Barranquilla to Cartagena was partially destroyed by the increased water level in
the streams flowing from the Caribbean Sea, which pass through this zone. Some 660
tourists were evacuated from San Andrés Island. There are no official reports of the
damage incurred, but it is estimated that 25 thousand people were affected in Cartagena
and approximately 50 thousand throughout the Colombian coast. In Santa Marta, waves of
Fig. 9 Events that have affected each of the vulnerable zones since 1900
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Fig. 10 Vulnerability to the impact of hurricanes in the Colombian Caribbean. The number 1 represents the
greatest vulnerability and 4 the least
Fig. 11 Flood produced by Hurricane Joan in 1988 in Cartagena (called ‘La Heroica’). The Times
newspaper, historical archive. October 21, 1988
up to 6 m and flooding of the main avenue were observed, which affected commercial
spaces. There are no official reports of deaths and damage caused by Hurricane Joan in the
Colombian Caribbean.
The city of Riohacha, which was the closest to the eye of the hurricane (26 km), was hit
by 111.1 km/h winds, and Cartagena, which was located at a distance of 116 km from the
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eye of the storm, endured winds of 138.9 km/h. In the insular Caribbean, the situation is
much more dangerous. In 1971, the eye of Hurricane Hattie was 60.1 km from the coast of
the island of San Andrés, with maximum winds of 101.1 km/h, and in 1988, Joan was
73.8 km from the southern coast of the island, with maximum winds of 203 km/h.
Undoubtedly, Joan was the most devastating hurricane in the history of the Colombian
Caribbean (Ortiz et al. 2008). Although the eye of Hurricane Lenny in 1999 was distant
from the Colombian continental coast, its atypical trajectory (West-Northeast) also produced significant effects. The simulation of this hurricane that was carried out in Ortiz
(2009) proves that if Lenny’s trajectory had occurred at lower latitude, it would have
caused considerable damage because its winds would have hit the Colombian coast
perpendicularly.
5 Conclusions
This paper presents a historical analysis of storms and hurricanes that have caused considerable damage in Colombian territory due to the proximity of their eye. Although the
Colombian Caribbean coast is not registered as a potentially vulnerable zone in international databases, it was possible to determine that there have been significant events in the
region, some of which even hit land. The analysis made it possible to identify ten significant events that have occurred since 1900 and to determine the vulnerability of the
Colombian territory to storms and hurricanes. Furthermore, it was possible to establish four
areas of vulnerability as follows: area 1 (greatest vulnerability), the Archipelago of San
Andrés; area 2 (medium vulnerability), the coastal zone of the Department of Guajira; area
3 (medium–low vulnerability), the coast of the Departments of Atlántico and Bolı́var; and
area 4 (low vulnerability), the coast of the Departments of Córdoba and Antioquia.
The most destructive event in Colombia’s continental Caribbean zone was the movement of Hurricane Joan through the city of Riohacha in October 1988. The eye of the storm
was approximately 26 km from the coast, and the sustained wind speed was 111.1 km/h. In
its westward trajectory, the storm was upgraded to a Category 1 hurricane, and its eye was
64, 79, and 116 km from the port cities of Barranquilla, Santa Marta, and Cartagena,
respectively, with sustained wind speeds of approximately 130 km/h. The coastal zones of
Cartagena and Santa Marta were severely affected by swell and were flooded by the storm
surge. Several thoroughfares collapsed from the rain produced, and approximately 50
thousand people were affected. There are no cost reports of damages incurred or death tolls
associated with the hurricane. Hurricane Joan in October 1988 was also a very destructive
event in the insular Caribbean zone of Colombia. The eye of the storm was approximately
78 km from the island of San Andrés, with a sustained wind speed of 203.7 km/h, when it
was upgraded to a powerful Category 3 hurricane.
These results show that it is necessary to establish a hurricane alert and mitigation
program for the Caribbean coast of Colombia. This type of program, which does not
currently exist, is indispensable for the insular zone and for the northeastern continental
coast of Colombia because these are the most vulnerable areas according to the results of
the study. Although an eastward trajectory such as Lenny’s is not very common, it could
cause considerable damage to the coastal region of Colombia.
Acknowledgments The authors would like to thank the Office of Research and Projects (DIDI) at the
Universidad del Norte.
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