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For more information about this research, email: [email protected] 2 Ambient Insight’s 2015-2020 North America Digital English Language Learning Market Table of Contents Ambient Insight’s Organizational Enterprise Licensing Model .......... 2 Table of Contents ................................................................ 3 List of Tables ...................................................................... 5 List of Figures ..................................................................... 6 Abstract ............................................................................. 7 The Primary Catalysts Driving the Digital English Learning Market in North America ..................................................................................... 7 Consumer Demand for Mobile Digital English Language Learning Products ................................................................................. 8 Government Spending on ESL Programs ..................................... 9 Large-scale Digitization Initiatives in the Academic Segments ...... 11 High Demand for English for Specific Purposes (ESP) .................. 13 Spending on Academic English by Foreign Students .................... 15 What You Will Find in This Report ............................................... 17 Who are the Buyers? .............................................................. 18 What Are They Buying? ........................................................... 19 Sources of Data on the North America Digital English Language Learning Market .................................................................................. 21 Related Research ................................................................... 23 2015-2020 North America Demand-Side Analysis ......................... 24 Digital English Language Learning Revenue Forecasts for North America by Six Buying Segments (US and Canada Combined).................. 24 The United States (US) ........................................................... 25 US Consumers ..................................................................... 27 The US Consumer ESL Demographic Breakout .................................28 US Consumer Expenditures on Four Other Digital Languages .............29 US Corporations .................................................................. 30 US PreK-12 ......................................................................... 32 US Higher Education ............................................................ 36 US Federal Government ........................................................ 40 US State and Local Governments ........................................... 43 For more information about this research, email: [email protected] 3 Ambient Insight’s 2015-2020 North America Digital English Language Learning Market Canada ................................................................................. 45 Canada Consumers .............................................................. 47 Canada Corporations ............................................................ 48 Canada PreK-12................................................................... 49 Canada Higher Education ...................................................... 53 Canada Federal Government ................................................. 55 Canada Provincial and Local Governments .............................. 57 Supply-side Analysis for Four Product Types in North America: All Countries Combined .................................................................. 59 US Supply-side Analysis .......................................................... 62 Canada Supply-side Analysis ................................................... 64 Index of Suppliers ............................................................. 66 For more information about this research, email: [email protected] 4 Ambient Insight’s 2015-2020 North America Digital English Language Learning Market List of Tables Table 1 - 2015-2020 North America Digital English Language Learning Revenue Forecasts for the US and Canada (in US $ Millions) .................................................................................... 24 Table 2 - 2015-2020 US Digital English Language Learning Revenue Forecasts for North America – US and Canada Combined (in US$ Millions) .......................................................... 25 Table 3 - 2015-2020 US Digital English Language Learning Revenue Forecasts for the US (in US$ Millions) .............................. 25 Table 4 - 2015-2020 US Revenue Forecast for Digital English Language Learning by Six Buyer Segments (in US$ Millions) ........... 26 Table 5 - 2015-2020 US Consumer Revenue Forecasts for Digital Language Learning Content (in US$ Millions) ....................... 27 Table 6 - 2015-2020 US Revenue Forecasts for Digital Language Learning in the Corporate Segment (in US$ Millions) ...................... 30 Table 7 - 2015-2020 US Revenue Forecasts for Digital Language Learning in the PreK-12 Segment (in US$ Millions) ......................... 32 Table 8 - 2015-2020 US Revenue Forecasts for Digital Language Learning in the Higher Education Segment (in US$ Millions) ............ 36 Table 9 - 2015-2020 US Revenue Forecasts for Digital Language Learning in the Federal Government Segment (in US$ Millions)........ 41 Table 10 - 2015-2020 US Revenue Forecasts for Digital Language Learning in the State and Local Government Segments (in US$ Millions) .......................................................... 43 Table 11 - 2015-2020 Canada Digital English Language Learning Revenue Forecasts for the US (in US$ Millions) ................. 45 Table 12 - 2015-2020 Canada Revenue Forecast for Digital English Language Learning by Six Buyer Segments (in US$ Millions) .................................................................................... 46 Table 13 - 2015-2020 Canada Consumer Revenue Forecasts for Digital Language Learning Content (in US$ Millions) ....................... 47 Table 14 - 2015-2020 Canada Corporate Revenue Forecasts for Digital Language Learning Content (in US$ Millions) ....................... 48 Table 15 - 2015-2020 Canada PreK-12 Revenue Forecasts for Digital Language Learning Content (in US$ Millions) ....................... 50 Table 16 - 2015-2020 Canada Higher Education Revenue Forecasts for Digital Language Learning Content (in US$ Millions) .................................................................................... 53 For more information about this research, email: [email protected] 5 Ambient Insight’s 2015-2020 North America Digital English Language Learning Market Table 17 - 2015-2020 Canada Federal Government Revenue Forecasts for Digital Language Learning Content (in US$ Millions) .................................................................................... 56 Table 18 - 2015-2020 Canada Provincial and State Government Revenue Forecasts for Digital Language Learning Content (in US$ Millions) ............................................................................. 57 Table 19 - 2015-2020 North America Digital English Language Learning Revenue Forecasts for the US and Canada Combined (in US $ Millions)........................................................................ 59 Table 20 - 2015-2020 North America Revenue Forecasts for Digital English Language Learning by Four Product Types (in US$ Millions) ............................................................................. 60 Table 21 - 2015-2020 US Revenue Forecasts for Digital English Language Learning by Five Product Types (in US$ Millions) ............. 63 Table 22 - 2015-2020 Canada Revenue Forecasts for Digital English Language Learning by Five Product Types (in US$ Millions) .................................................................................... 65 List of Figures Figure 1 – Primary Catalysts in the 2015-2020 Digital English Language Learning Market in North America .................................... 8 Figure 2 - 2015-2020 Digital English Language Learning Fiveyear Growth Rates in North America by Six Buyer Segments ........... 18 Figure 3 - 2015-2020 Digital English Language Learning Fiveyear Growth Rates in North America by Four Product Types ............. 20 Figure 4 – 2015-2020 United States Revenue Forecast for Digital English Language Learning Products by Six Buyer Segments (in US$ Millions) .......................................................... 26 Figure 5 - 2015-2020 Digital English Language Learning Fiveyear Growth Rates in North America by Four Product Types. ............ 61 Figure 6 - 2015-2020 Digital English Language Learning Fiveyear Growth Rates in the US by Four Product Types ....................... 63 Figure 7 - 2015-2020 Digital English Language Learning Fiveyear Growth Rates in Canada by Four Product Types ...................... 65 For more information about this research, email: [email protected] 6 Ambient Insight’s 2015-2020 North America Digital English Language Learning Market Abstract The five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for digital English language learning products in North America is 8.6%. Revenues will reach $637.6 million in 2020, up from $421.6 million in 2015. Over 120 suppliers operating in Canada and the US are cited in this report to help international suppliers identify local partners, distributors, and resellers. This report provides forecasts for Canada and the United States (US). The growth rate in Canada is 10.9% and the growth rate in the US is 8.4%. Revenues are heavily concentrated in the US. The US was the secondlargest buying country for digital English language learning products in the world in 2015, second only to China. Revenue growth in Canada and the US will slow in the latter part of the forecast period, due mostly to lower price points for mobile English language learning apps, the fastest growing digital English language learning product type in North America. While the Canadian and US markets have similarities, there are significant differences in demographics and buying behaviors for digital English language learning products in the buying segments. Both Canada and the US have large foreign-born populations. Yet the demographics of the ESL learners are different in each country. The ESL community in the US is comprised of mostly native Spanish speakers. The ESL community in Canada is comprised primarily of people who speak Tagalog (Filipino), Chinese, and Hindi. Forecasts for digital English language learning products are broken out by six buying segments in both Canada and the US: consumers, PreK-12 systems, higher education institutions, federal government agencies, and municipal/state/provincial government agencies. In the US, consumers are the top buyers followed by PreK-12 buyers. In Canada, government agencies are the top buyers, followed by PreK-12 buyers. The Primary Catalysts Driving the Digital English Learning Market in North America The five major catalysts driving the digital English language learning market in North America are: Strong consumer demand for mobile English language learning apps Government spending on English as a Second Language (ESL) programs Digitization initiatives in the school systems (some on massive scales) including the digitization of ESL content Demand for English for Specific Purposes (e.g., academic, aviation, hospitality, medical, and business English) Spending on academic English by foreign students enrolled in North American higher education institutions For more information about this research, email: [email protected] 7 Ambient Insight’s 2015-2020 North America Digital English Language Learning Market Combined, these catalysts are driving the demand for digital English across the North America. The degree to which they impact the markets in either country is different and a detailed analysis of those differences are provided in this report. Figure 1 – Primary Catalysts in the 2015-2020 Digital English Language Learning Market in North America Perhaps the top catalyst for digital English language learning sales in the region is the near ubiquitous demand from consumers. Consumers in North America are primarily buying mobile-based English language learning products and there is a degree of product substitution as consumers opt for mobile products over legacy learning technology types. English language learning apps consistently rank in the top ten bestselling paid Mobile Learning apps in all of the commercial app stores in North America. Consumer Demand for Mobile Digital English Language Learning Products Consumers buy a large amount of mobile language learning apps and edugames in the region. Consumers across the region "prefer" mobile language apps over PC-based products. US consumers are avid buyers of mobile educational apps and edugames. Brain trainers, early childhood learning apps, and language learning apps dominate the commercial app stores. As of April 2016 in the US: The top selling educational app in the Apple store in the US was Age of Learning's ABCmouse, an app with language learning content for very young children. There were four other language-related apps in For more information about this research, email: [email protected] 8 Ambient Insight’s 2015-2020 North America Digital English Language Learning Market the top ten best-selling education apps and all of them were for young children. There were four language learning apps in the top ten in the Google App Store and all of them were for English. There were four language learning apps in the top ten best-selling educational apps in the Amazon store and all of them were English apps for young children. There were six language learning apps in the top ten best-selling educational apps in the Windows store in the US and four of them were for English. LeapFrog (acquired by Hong Kong-based VTech in January 2016) is a major supplier of English language learning content for young children in the US. LeapFrog's US app store sells dozens of English language learning apps for the LeapPad tablet for young children including the popular Little Pim series designed for children under six. "Your child will love following along with Little Pim, the adorable cartoon panda bear who serves as the teacher. Together with Little Pim, your child can learn 360 words and phrases, providing the essential building blocks for language learning." LeapFrog's Canadian app store sells a range of digital English language apps for their LeapPad children's tablet. Most of the mobile educational content purchased by Canadian consumers is mobile edugames designed for young children. Parents who have immigrated to Canada buy the products to prepare the children for the Canadian school system. The parents also buy supplemental English for their older children. Canadian consumers buy mobile language learning apps, although English is just one of the languages that they buy. As of May 2016 in Canada: There were five language learning apps in the top ten best-selling educational apps in the Apple store: three for English and one each for Danish and German. In the Google App Store, there were six language apps in the top ten: four for English and one each for Spanish and French. There were only three language apps in the top ten best-selling educational apps in the Windows store in Canada in May 2016: two for English and one for French. There was also a multi-language translation app in the top ten. Government Spending on ESL Programs The US federal government spends over $565 million a year on adult English language learning. It funds the Adult Education State Grant Program administered by the individual states. The program reaches 1.1 million English language learners a year, mostly through classroom instruction. The federal government subsidizes digital classes. The US Department of Education's Office of Vocational and Adult Education (OVAE) offers free For more information about this research, email: [email protected] 9 Ambient Insight’s 2015-2020 North America Digital English Language Learning Market digital English language learning to immigrants on the USA Learns portal (funded by the DoE and operated by The Sacramento County Office of Education) and free digital courses for ESL teachers on the EL/Civics Digital portal. While the online courses are free, USA Learns has four mobile English language learning apps that they sell for 99 cents each the Apple and Google app stores. The Voice of America (VOA) hires suppliers to produce a wide range of English language learning content including the online portal VOA Learning English, which includes videobased courses, audio-based lessons, and interactive courses. In March 2013, the US Department of Education (DoE) announced funding for a series of mobile digital English language learning apps based on the popular cartoon character Pocoyo. The funding is part of the DoE's Ready to Learn initiative. The apps were created by the Hispanic Information and Telecommunications Network (a Spanish-language educational media company) and Zinkia Entertainment, the Spanish media company that created Pocoyo. The apps are "preparing low-income, Spanish-speaking three- and four-year-olds for school." US schools spent over $440 million on English language learning (ELL) instructional content in 2015 and only 14.3% was spent on digital products, indicating that there are significant revenues for digital English language learning suppliers. The majority of the content purchased was for young children in the first three grades. The US Department of Education (DoE) estimates that there are 5.5 million PreK-12 students classified as English language learners (ELLs), which is 10% of the total enrollment. According to the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), over 45,000 of the 93,600 public schools in the US have English language learner enrollments, a number that has doubled since 2004. According to the NCES, the three states with the highest percentage of ELLs are Nevada, California, and New Mexico at 31%, 24%, and 19%, respectively. There are 5.1 million primary and secondary students in the Canadian PreK-12 system. The provinces are responsible for public education and provide most of the funding for the schools in their province. However, local school districts are autonomous; they set the curriculum and make the buying decisions. Due to a range of socio-economic conditions in Canada, education funding for instructional content has been declining. For example, The Ontario Ministry of Education has cut funding for learning resources and textbooks by 15% since 2000. While the Canadian federal government pays for English or French language training for the adult immigrants, the schools teach the children. Additionally, there is a demand for English language learning in schools in the French speaking provinces and in remote First Nation areas. All children enrolled in French public schools in the predominately Frenchspeaking province of Québec are introduced to English language learning starting in the first grade and English language learning is compulsory through high school. For more information about this research, email: [email protected] 10 Ambient Insight’s 2015-2020 North America Digital English Language Learning Market The use of digital PreK-12 content is concentrated in four provinces: British Columbia, Alberta, Québec, and Ontario. They also happen to have the highest concentration of English language learners. According to Statistics Canada, "The vast majority of the foreign-born population live in four provinces: Ontario, British Columbia, Québec, and Alberta, and most live in the nation's largest urban centres." In Ontario, the average percentage of English language learners is 9% in elementary schools and 24% in secondary schools. More than half of Ontario’s primary schools (60%) and secondary schools (54%) have English language learning students. In Toronto, the percentage is 85% in elementary schools. Vancouver, British Columbia accounts for the second-highest immigrant population in Canada after Toronto, Ontario. The province has a program called the English Language Services for Adults Network, which has a portal that includes a directory of hundreds of ESL resources. Alberta is a pioneer in academic online learning. In the 2014-2015 school year, Alberta had over 80,000 students enrolled in online classes via the province's Alberta Distance Learning Centre (ADLC). The ADLC licenses the ESL software from US-based Imagine Learning. In March 2013, during a round of budget cuts, Alberta reduced their ESL instruction from 7 years to 5 years. Children past the fifth grade no longer get formal ESL instruction in the schools. There were over 52,000 English language learners in Alberta by the end of 2015. In June 2013, the province of Alberta announced that they would have all the textbooks and instructional content used in the province digitized by March 2014. According to Project Tomorrow, approximately 27% of middle school students and 35% of high school students use digital textbooks in the US. Large-scale Digitization Initiatives in the Academic Segments Large-scale digitization of educational content is now underway across North America. Government agencies are spending a substantial amount of money annually on digital content, live online tutoring, and custom content services. The conversion of the print-based English language learning content is part of this digitization wave. It should be noted that academic digitization efforts in governmentoperated school systems are essentially policy decisions, which can literally change overnight. A good example is the infamously botched iPad rollout in the Los Angeles Unified School District. The district began distributing iPads to students in 2013 and planned to spend $1.3 billion to equip every student in the district with a tablet. In August 2015, the district canceled its contract with Apple, essentially sidelining what would have been one of the largest digitization initiatives in the world. As schools in North America migrate to digital content, a massive amount of commercial, open source, and indigenous print-based English language For more information about this research, email: [email protected] 11 Ambient Insight’s 2015-2020 North America Digital English Language Learning Market learning content is being ported to interactive digital formats. Large-scale national deployments of tablets in the academic segments began in the developed economies in North America several years ago and more recently in developing economies. PC and tablet deployments are integral components of digitization initiatives. The infrastructure is the foundation for learning technology tools, platforms, personal learning devices, and digital content. The high demand for the integration of these learning technology products into the infrastructures represents a significant revenue opportunity for services suppliers. English is the top language taught to young children in US schools. This is a matter of necessity due to the influx of nonEnglish speaking children into the US. In December 2015, the US National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) reported that "To gain a better understanding of the role virtual schools play in public elementary and secondary education, NCES added a flag identifying these schools to its Common Core of Data (CCD). Twenty-eight states and the District of Columbia reported having one or more virtual schools for a total of 478 virtual schools in the U.S. in 2013–14. Florida reported the most of any state with a total of 182." The CCD distinguishes several types of local education agencies, defined by their level of governance. Almost all virtual schools are administered by regular, local school districts (350 schools). Most other virtual schools are administered by independent charter school districts (116 schools), which are districts composed exclusively of charter schools. The two states with the largest number of students in virtual schools were Ohio (38,169) and Pennsylvania (36,596). Idaho had the largest percentage of students in virtual schools (2.4%), followed by Ohio (2.2%), and Pennsylvania (2.1%). There are dozens of companies that supply digital English language learning to the schools. In the US education system, ESL content is defined as supplemental curricula and different from language arts and literacy. Reading Horizons sells ESL software primarily to the PreK-12 schools for children 4-12, but they also sell an ESL package for homeschooled children for $239. Reading Horizons claims to have ESL software in over 10,000 schools in the US. In February 2012, McGraw-Hill announced a partnership with Cambridge University Press in which Cambridge University Press will be the exclusive distributor of McGraw-Hill's 150 digital ESL titles in the US. Renaissance Learning is a major supplemental educational supplier in the US PreK-12 segment and reaches over 20 million students. They have six ESL packages that they sell to the schools. In February 2014, Google Capital invested $40 million in the company. In September 2015, Cambium Learning report that revenues for their ELL product Learning A-Z reached $13.7 million in the third quarter, a 24% increase from the year before. For more information about this research, email: [email protected] 12 Ambient Insight’s 2015-2020 North America Digital English Language Learning Market There are also smaller suppliers that specialize in ESL software including Edmentum, Hatch, Exceller Software, BrainPOP, and Merit Software, that sell institutional licenses for their ESL products to US academic buyers. McGraw-Hill reported in January 2016 that, "California adopted math materials in 2013, with purchases spread over 2014 and 2015, and is scheduled to purchase English language arts materials in the beginning of 2016." Since its creation in 1993, the Computers for Schools Program in Canada has refurbished and donated over 1.4 million computers to schools and not-for-profit learning organizations across Canada. The government agency Industry Canada "leads this program for the federal government, working with provincial and territorial governments, not-for profit organizations as well as the private and volunteer sectors." In June 2913, Alberta announced the closure of Alberta Education, which stored print-based textbooks in a move to aggressively migrate to digital content. "Moving forward, there will no longer be a need for the province to have warehousing and shipping capacity for large quantities of K-12 print resources." Boeing-owned Jeppesen has offices in 50 countries and sells online aviation English courses. They have six offices in the US and an office in Montreal. Their North American headquarters is in Denver. All Alberta schools are connected to the national broadband SuperNet. "Digital resources are accessible from anywhere, can include multimedia and specialized software such as speech-to-text programs, can be personalized for each student and can be updated often, unlike a textbook." School districts decide what devices students may use and are responsible for making sure students are equipped with the technology they need to use the digital content. High Demand for English for Specific Purposes (ESP) The demand for English for Specific Purposes (ESP), also known as vocational English, is also a catalyst for the North America digital English language learning market. These products are purchased by corporate buyers, government agencies, academic segments, and individuals. Specialized vocational English types include aviation, nautical, business (sometimes called workplace English), hospitality, finance, law, medical, transportation, tourism, energy, information technology, and engineering English. Some suppliers offer highly-specialized forms of online English language learning such as English for accounting, chemistry, architecture, human resources, real estate, sales, and logistics. There is even a form of English learning called automotive English. There are dozens of global suppliers that specialize in online business English active in North America including EF's Englishtown (rebranded as English Live in November 2015), goFLUENT, inlingua, and GlobalEnglish (owned by Pearson). The mainstream language learning brands like Berlitz, For more information about this research, email: [email protected] 13 Ambient Insight’s 2015-2020 North America Digital English Language Learning Market Wall Street English (also owned by Pearson), and Rosetta Stone are active in the North America market. Rosetta Stone launched their Advanced English for Business in February 2014. The courses include self-paced content, live tutors, and mobile components and are offered for both American and British English. The Wall Street Journal launched their subscription-based business English service called Newsmart in October 2015. Newsmart costs $7.50 a month. In December 2015, CNN launched their new CNN Learn English service that includes legal and business English for $29 a month each. Both the US and Canada are member states of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), which is a UN agency that works with "global industry and aviation organizations to develop international Standards and Recommended Practices (SARPs) which are then used by States when they develop their legally-binding national civil aviation regulations." ICAO's Aviation English Language Test Service (AELTS) is the world's aviation English certification body and recognizes three tests: the RMIT English Language Test for Aviation (for pilots), the Test of English Language Level for Controllers and Pilots (TELLCAP), and the English Language Proficiency for Aeronautical Communication (ELPAC). Online aviation English courses are available all over the world and buyers in any given country often purchase courses from suppliers outside the country. RMIT offers their test prep material in both print textbooks and online courses. The TELLCAP and ELPAC are interesting exams that are delivered by a live "examiner" and the exams are essentially conversation-based assessments, which include ad hoc roleplay. The test taker must verbally demonstrate English proficiency during a live interaction with the examiner. These examinations are now often delivered via web conferencing technology. There are global suppliers of online aviation English. US-based DynEd is the world market leader in online aviation English and has clients all over the world. Macmillan sells four packaged ICAO-compliant digital aviation English language courses that are purchased by individuals and training companies all over the world. Carnegie Speech was spun out by Carnegie Mellon University and sells four subscription-based ICAO-compliant online courses in a series called Climb Level 4. One of the most well-known English for hospitality products in the US is Hotel English Online developed by a Las Vegas company called Workplace ESL and the Las Vegas PBS affiliate. The product is licensed by hotels in North America for their ESL employees. For more information about this research, email: [email protected] 14 Ambient Insight’s 2015-2020 North America Digital English Language Learning Market Academic English is the top selling English for Specific Purposes (ESP) type and the demand is concentrated almost entirely in the higher education segments in North America. Spending on Academic English by Foreign Students There is a very specialized form of English known as academic English (also referred to as English for Academic Purposes, or AEP). Academic English is intended not only to increase proficiency but also designed to teach the cognitive skills required to be successful in English-speaking higher education institutions. Academic English includes cognitive, linguistic, and psychological components not found in conversational English. Academic English is often contrasted with so-called "social" or conversational English and is a highly-complex form of English required to perform well in an English-speaking academic context across all the subject areas encountered in higher education. Macmillan sells digital Academic English courses and maintains that "Students of English for Academic Purposes need to develop not only a high level of linguistic competence, but also advanced academic skills." According to the US Department of Commerce, spending by foreign students contributed "more than $30 billion to the US economy in 2014." According to the Open Doors report by the Institute of International Education that was released in November 2015, "the number of international students at U.S. colleges and universities had the highest rate of growth in 35 years, increasing by ten percent to a record high of 974,926 students in the 2014/15 academic year." Chinese students account for over 300,000 of the total. The report identified the universities with the largest foreign student enrollment. "Eight institutions hosted more than 10,000 international students: New York University, University of Southern California, Columbia University, Arizona State University, University of Illinois – UrbanaChampaign, Northeastern University, Purdue University – West Lafayette and University of California – Los Angeles." Academic English is relatively complex to develop and it is cheaper for the institutions to buy commercial products rather than develop their own material. Macmillan sells six cloud-based academic courses for both American and British English as well as test prep courses for the IELTS. In September 2015, Berlitz's ELS Educational Services licensed the digital English language learning content from US-based English Central. ELS provides academic English classes at thirty-three locations in the US. Oxford University Press' Oxford Learner's Dictionary of Academic English includes an interactive "tutor" called the Oxford Academic iWriter. Germany-based Paragon Software developed a mobile versions of the products that were released in late 2014 with limited For more information about this research, email: [email protected] 15 Ambient Insight’s 2015-2020 North America Digital English Language Learning Market free access. The commercial mobile products costs $29.99, relatively high for a Mobile Learning app. Cambridge University Press' sells three digital products under their Cambridge Academic English brand. "Designed specifically for students at university and in foundation courses, this integrated skills course develops language and real academic skills essential for successful university studies across disciplines." The product is available in print, digital audio, or DVD formats. In July 25, 2013, Kaplan International Centers announced a licensing deal with Carnegie Speech to use their "online NativeAccent program in 23 of Kaplan’s English-language schools in North America." Ed2Go is a division of Cengage Learning and offers live online academic English classes taught by teachers from local community colleges. The average cost of a class that runs six weeks is $99, which is very low for this type of product. "We've served more than one million students, making the Ed2Go network the world's single largest provider of online learning opportunities. These high volumes help us keep our prices well below industry standards." eCampusAlberta is a consortium of 19 Alberta postsecondary institutions and offers over 900 online courses and 70 programs. The only ESL course offered is an online ESL for Nursing course. The University of Arizona's Center for English as a Second Language (CESL) offers live online tutoring provided by Cengage Learning's Ed2Go division and via self-paced courses from EnglishCentral. They charge $350 for 30 hours of online English and $590 for 50 hours of instruction (plus application and technology fees). The UCLA Extension offers online academic English classes for up to $525 for a course that runs for six weeks. The English Language Institute (ELI) at Florida International University (FIU) in Miami, Florida sells their tenweek online academic class for $550. The majority of US-based EnglishCentral's consumers and academic buyers come from outside North America, but they do compete in North America. EnglishCentral has several US higher education institutions licensing their platform. The most common form of English for Special Purposes (ESP) offered by Canadian higher education institutions to enrolled students is academic English. For example, the University of British Columbia offers their selfpaced academic English courses for free, but charges $280 for their online instructor-led academic English courses. The Canadian College of Online Training (CCOT) for Professional Studies in Toronto, Ontario provides "high quality online distance education English language certificate courses to national and international students in areas including academic English, TOEFL exam preparation, and business English." They issue certificates to students that successfully complete the programs. For more information about this research, email: [email protected] 16 Ambient Insight’s 2015-2020 North America Digital English Language Learning Market Canadian Virtual University (CVU) is a consortium of thirteen of Canada's leading universities specializing in online and distance education. CVU offers a range of online academic English classes designed to prepare foreigners and immigrants to enter Canadian colleges. They offer nine online ESL courses from three providers. CVU offers online test prep for the academic version of the International English Language Testing System (IELTS). "The Academic Version is intended for those who want to enroll in universities and other institutions of higher education and for professionals such as medical doctors and nurses who want to study or practice in an English-speaking country." Over 30 colleges and universities across Canada offer Cengage's Ed2Go live online collaboration-based course called Grammar for ESL "one of the required courses in most college ESL programs to transfer to mainstream English." The live online class costs $99. ESL for Nursing is another common form of specialized English taught in Canadian universities. The Canadian English Language Benchmark Assessment for Nurses (CELBAN) is the exam that foreign nurses must pass to obtain licensure in Canada. There are dozens of online sites that offer commercial test prep content for the exam. What You Will Find in This Report All Canadian revenues forecast in this report are expressed in US Dollars as of the currency exchange rate in May 2016. There are two sections in this report: a demand-side analysis and a supplyside analysis. In the demand-side analysis, five-year revenue forecasts are broken out for two countries in the region: Canada and the US. In the supply-side section, five-year forecasts are provided for the four primary digital English learning technology types. The demand-side analysis is broken out for both Canada and the US by six buying segments: consumers, corporations & businesses, PreK-12 systems, higher education institutions, federal government agencies, and state/provincial/municipal government agencies. This report does not include revenues for early childhood literacy products designed for English speaking children. This report only includes revenues for digital English as a Second Language (ESL) products, English for Speakers of Other Languages (ESOL) products, specialized types of English for non-English speaking people, and standardized English proficiency test prep products. This report does not include the revenues for online delivery of the standardized English proficiency exams, because they are not instructional products, per se. This report does not include products designed for English teachers. For example, the Teaching English to Speakers of Other Languages (TESOL) program is designed to provide instruction on how to teach English, not how to learn it. For more information about this research, email: [email protected] 17 Ambient Insight’s 2015-2020 North America Digital English Language Learning Market Who are the Buyers? In general, the two major digital English language learning buyers in North America are consumers and academic institutions. That said, the growth rates are much higher in the government segments. The digital English language learning market in the consumer segment is now a mature market and pricing pressures are driving revenue growth downward. Additionally, consumers are opting for mobile products that have much lower price points than legacy products. PreK-12 buying is heavily concentrated in products designed for young children. Both Canada and the US have large populations of immigrant children that speak a range of native languages and digital English language learning products are effective at providing personalized and adaptive learning to the children. Figure 2 - 2015-2020 Digital English Language Learning Five-year Growth Rates in North America by Six Buyer Segments Most higher education institutions in North America use digital language learning labs. They are particularly interested in academic English, business English, and hospitality English content for the labs. They tend to develop their own online courses with the exception of language learning courses, which they usually license from commercial suppliers. The federal governments in Canada and the US are major buyers of ESL products and the growth rate for both countries combined for that segment For more information about this research, email: [email protected] 18 Ambient Insight’s 2015-2020 North America Digital English Language Learning Market is 21.1%. The state and provincial governments are not far behind at 17.4%. Private language schools and for-profit academic institutions are strong buyers of third-party commercial digital English language learning products. North America has a thriving private language school industry. Kaplan International has 23 English language learning schools in North America including two in Canada. They developed their own content and delivery platform, but they do license third-party products for use in the language learning labs. What Are They Buying? The current digital English language learning revenues in North America are concentrated in four learning technology product types: There is a degree of product substitution underway with buyers opting for mobile products over the other product types. This is particularly acute in the consumer segment Retail packaged Self-paced eLearning (off-the-shelf courseware) Collaboration-based Learning (live online classes and live online tutoring) Digital Reference-ware (eTextbooks, ePhrasebooks, audio books, digital videos, test prep, and digital translation dictionaries) Mobile Learning apps and edugames The supply side section provides revenue forecasts for each of these products for Canada and the US. It is interesting that there are no commercial Mobile Learning VAS products on the market in either Canada or the US. North America is the only region in the world without operational Mobile Learning VAS products. This report only includes revenues for digital English language learning content and does not provide revenues for custom development services or language learning lab hardware. There are simulation and game-based products on the market, but simulation-based products tend to be expensive and the game-based products in the region are now mostly mobile. Self-paced English courses have a growth rate of 6.1% in North America. The demand is being dampened by consumer preference for mobile products and the prevalence of classroom training in the organizational segments. Live online classes and online tutoring have a growth rate of 11.6% with revenues heavily concentrated in the corporate and higher education segments. The demand is different in both segments: corporations tend to buy a range of English for Specific Purposes (ESP), but higher education institutions focus primarily on academic English. The growth rate for reference-based digital English language learning is 5.9%. Revenues are derived mostly from eTextbooks and test prep products for standardized English exams. For more information about this research, email: [email protected] 19 Ambient Insight’s 2015-2020 North America Digital English Language Learning Market Figure 3 - 2015-2020 Digital English Language Learning Five-year Growth Rates in North America by Four Product Types Mobile digital English language learning apps and edugames have a growth rate of 11.2%, yet this product will generate the highest revenues throughout the forecast period. The language learning lab suppliers are distributors and resellers of thirdparty commercial content. The private language schools and both academic segments buy third-party digital language learning labs and license commercial content for the labs. The labs in use are still mostly PC-based software products with headsets. The newer digital language learning labs are cloud-based and compatible with tablets. All of the major English international language learning publishers operate in North America, usually selling to school systems, but selling directly to consumers as well. Print-based language learning textbooks, phrasebooks, and translation dictionaries are increasingly being converted into digital formats, particulalry in countries undertaking national digitization initiatives. Selfpaced courseware is also purchased during these initiatives. Mobile Learning content procurement is an integral part of tablet adoption in the schools. Many of these initiatives are nearing completion stages in several states and provinces and buying cycles are returning to normal cyclical replacement patterns. Finally, there is a high demand for test prep courses and online sample test prep for standardized English tests such as the IELTS, TOEIC, TOEFL, Aptis, For more information about this research, email: [email protected] 20 Ambient Insight’s 2015-2020 North America Digital English Language Learning Market the LCCI Business English Test, Pearson's PTE Academic, BULATS, OPI, and OPIC. Academic institutions, governments, and corporate organizations use the scores on these tests to determine eligibility for admission, immigration, and employment (or promotion), respectively. In this context, they can be considered "high-stakes" tests. ETS reports that the TOEFL was taken 2.2 million times in 2015 and that over 9,000 organizations accept the exam across the globe. The TOEIC, LCCI Business English Test, and the BULATS are primarily used to determine employment eligibility. Some of these tests are relatively new on the market. Pearson launched the PTE Academic in 2009 and is still rolling it out across the planet. The British Council launched the Aptis in late 2012. Most standardized English tests are administered (and scored) by the entity that owns the test and most are still pen and paper-based. Even the digital TOEFL iBT exam is delivered at physical testing centers. The British Council has taken a new approach with the Aptis and grants licenses to organizations allowing them to administer the test themselves via internal digital platforms. Despite the availability of free online courses, there is a cottage industry of commercial online test prep courseware suppliers, particularly in North America. These specialized courses can command high price points, particularly if they include live online tutors. There is a wave of academic digitization efforts in in the region and the governmentoperated school systems identify the budgets for those multi-year programs. Sources of Data on the North America Digital English Language Learning Market The financial reports from the domestic and international education technology companies that operate in North America provide invaluable insight into the rapidly evolving market conditions and revenue opportunities in the region and in specific countries. Most of these learning technology companies focus on particular products and buying segments with targeted types of content so their financial reports provide details on specific buying behavior patterns. The major international educational publishers are active in North America. Pearson, McGraw-Hill, Cambridge University Press, Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, ETS's Edusoft, Macmillan, Scholastic, Santillana, Elsevier, John Wiley & Sons, Oxford University Press, Cengage Learning's National Geographic, and Japan-based Benesse (parent company of Berlitz) all have significant market presence in North America. Their financial reports provide detailed data on the markets in specific countries. Oxford University Press, ETS, and Cambridge University Press are non-profits but they release financial reports on a regular basis. For more information about this research, email: [email protected] 21 Ambient Insight’s 2015-2020 North America Digital English Language Learning Market It is not uncommon for firms to disclose annual revenues when they obtain private investment. Private equity firms will also sometimes disclose annual revenues for the companies they fund. Companies will often report annual revenues for companies they acquire. For example, when Pearson acquired GlobalEnglish in 2011, they reported that the corporate-facing online English language learning company was generating $42 million a year. There are several analytics firms that track the top selling mobile apps in the major app stores in countries across the planet. All of them have an education category and it is easy to identify the top selling educational apps (which varies from country to country). App Annie and Distimo (now owned by App Annie) are the best-known global app analytics firms. An excellent source of information about ELL in the US is the Migration Policy Institute, a non-profit think tank. They publish highly-detailed reports and fact sheets that include the breakouts for total number of ELL students in each state and the first languages spoken (ranked in order) by ELL students in every state. The US Federal Government has a portal called USAspending.gov that reports the payments made to suppliers. It is easy to search the site by a supplier's name and get exact expenditures made to that supplier by fiscal year. The Canadian Federal Government has a similar portal called Buyandsell.gc.ca that functions much like the US portal. A search on a supplier by company name yields exact amounts paid to them. Both Canada and the US use the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) system for reporting taxable revenues. The suppliers that sell digital English language learning products generally fall into just three NAICS codes: Education Services (611), Publishing Industries (511), and 516 for Internet Publishing. The Publishing Industries category includes both print and digital content. "Software publishing is included here because the activity, creation of a copyrighted product and bringing it to market, is equivalent to the creation process for other types of intellectual products." Both governments report on the total revenues for each NAICS code by subsets in so-called economic census tables, For example, the NAICS code for language schools is 611630. These are actual revenues enabling analysts to have the exact baseline revenues for education-related products. For more information about this research, email: [email protected] 22 Ambient Insight’s 2015-2020 North America Digital English Language Learning Market Related Research A detailed description of Ambient Insight's Evidence-based Research Methodology is included in our research taxonomy. Buyers of this report may also benefit by the following Ambient Insight market research: The 2015-2020 Worldwide Digital English Language Learning Market Ambient Insight’s 2016 Learning Technology Research Taxonomy “We Put Research into Practice” www.ambientinsight.com For more information about this research, email: [email protected] 23
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