Rethinking Nuclear
Can We Change the World’s
Cumulative Carbon Emissions Soon Enough?
Joseph B. Lassiter, III
Senior Fellow
Senator John Heinz Professor of Management Practice
In Environmental Management, Retired
Harvard Business School
April 2016
Copyright @ 2016 President & Fellows of Harvard College
1
Venture Capital Return Profile 1995 - 2009
636 Investments
$1,200 MM Cost / $3,000 MM Value - 2.5X
0.7
62.4%
0.6
52.8%
% of Total Cost or Terminal Value
0.5
0.4
0.3
20.1%
0.2
15.7%
15.3%
12.6%
9.1%
0.1
5.3%
3.5%
0
<1X
3.1%
1X to 3X
3X to 6X
Multiple on Invested Capital
% of Cost
6X to 10X
>10X
% of Value
Can you get into the “Big” Ideas?
Private Capital Ecosystem for US and Canadian
Privately Funded Nuclear Efforts
• Approximately $1.6+ billion invested in last 10 years
• Professional Investors:
•
•
•
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Venrock, NEA, RedPoint, Charles River, Lux Capital, Founders Fund, Braemar, Intellectual Ventures, Khosla Ventures,
The Wellcome Trust, RussNano, Chrysalix, SDTC, Mithral, Y-Combinator
High Net Worth Individuals – Gates, Bezos, Samberg
SWF: Saudi, Russian
Corporates – Lockheed, General Atomic, Fluor, Toshiba,
Existing Industry Strategic Partners
•
•
Many are circling
Do they have the “innovators dilemma”
• Nuclear utilities engaged in discussions
• Prototype Testing Announced: TerraPower (China) , ThorCon (Indonesia) and Terrestrial (Canada)
• Industrial MOUs signed in TerraPower (China) and ThorCon Power (Indonesia)
Rothrock March 31, 2016
3
Funded Nuclear Efforts:
Advanced Reactor Nascent Industry
Rothrock March 31, 2016
4
Nuclear
Entrants
Infrastructure
Style
Construction
Gen-III+ Passive
LWRs
Gen-IV Passive
SFRs
Gen-IV Passive
HTGRs
Gen-IV Passive
MSRs
Westinghouse
AP-1000
GE-Hitachi/Areva
(Korea/China/Russia)
TerraPower TWR
Site Excavation Only
Site Excavation Only
NuScale
GE-PRISM
UPower
PBMR
Areva NGNP
General Atomic EM2
(Reactor Module)
(Reactor Module
and Whole Plant)
(Reactor Module and
Whole Plant?)
Terrestrial Energy
ThorCon
Transatomic
Moltex
(Reactor Module and
Whole Plant)
Repair?
Upgrade and Repair
Upgrade and Repair
Upgrade and Repair
By Swap Out
Centralized
Fuel Processing
No Refueling
Continuous Refueling
Continuous Refueling
Centralized
Fuel Processing
Hi P/Low Temp
Water
Atm P/Hi Temp
Liquid Metal Sodium
Hi P/Hi Temp
He Gas
Atm P/Hi Temp
Na/Be/Li Salts
Factory
Manufacture
Service and
Fueling
Reactor
Physics Impact
Nuclear Must Be Cheaper Than Coal...
Maybe Even Natural Gas
(< $0.05/kWh by 2025)
Uncertain, Lumpy Investments and
Technology Cost Curve Forecasts
Cost per kWh
Gen-III+ LWRs
AP-1000 & NuScale
Asian Pulverized SC Coal
Gen-IV MSRs
Gen-IV SFRs
ThorCon, Terrestrial, and Transatomic
PRISM, TerraPower, & UPower
North America CCGT
Gen-IV HTGRs/GFRs
GA & Areva NGNP
Time
Nuclear Must Be As Scalable as Coal
(50-100 GWe/yr by 2030)
Build Everything on an Assembly Line
Make Everything Repairable & Upgradeable On Site
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Reactor yard produces 150--500 ton blocks. About 100 blocks per 1GWe plant.
Blocks are pre-coated, pre-piped, pre-wired, pre-tested.
Focus quality control at the block and sub-block level.
Blocks barged to site, dropped into place, and welded together.
No major repairs or upgrades on-site....ship the block back to the yard.
100 GWe/year yard block diagram; 2,000,000 tons steel per year