JUNE21,2016
THE WEARABLES
REPORT 2016:
REVIEWING A
FAST-CHANGING MARKET
•
Thewearabletechnologymarketwillbeworth$28.7billion
in2016,andthenumberofunitsshippedwillclimb18.4%,
to 275 million, according to estimates by the marketmeasurementfirmGartner.
•
In the first quarter of 2016, the top-selling wearables
brands were Fitbit (with 4.8 million units shipped), Xiaomi
(3.7 million) and Apple (1.5 million), according to marketmeasurementfirmInternationalDataCorporation(IDC).
•
We see two major trends underpinning the continued
growth of the wearables market. First, the emergence of
“wearables 2.0” will shift the category from stand-alone
devices to lifestyle-enhancing systems tying together
multipleconnecteddevicesandcloudservices.Second,the
clothingandsportswearcategoriesarelikelytoseeajump
in wearables offerings, with mass-market brands such as
Google,Levi’sandNikelaunchingnewproducts.
•
Innovation andchangearerifeinthewearablesmarket. A
large number of startups—fueled by access to cheap
components, 3D printing and willing crowdfunders—have
emerged, and some have been further funded or acquired
byventurecapitalfirmsorcorporatebuyers.
D EBO RA H WEI NS WIG
M A N A G I N G DI RE C TO R ,
F U N G G L O B AL R E T A I L & T EC H N OL O G Y
d e b or a h w e i n s w i g @ f u n g 1 9 37 . c o m
U S : 64 6 . 8 3 9. 7 0 1 7
H K : 85 2 . 61 1 9 . 1 7 79
C H N : 8 6 .1 8 6 . 1 4 2 0. 3 0 1 6
DEBORAHWEINSWIG,MANAGINGDIRECTOR,FUNGGLOBALRETAIL&TECHNOLOGY
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TABLEOFCONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
3
A MARKET SET FOR DOUBLE-DIGIT GROWTH
5
INVESTMENT ACTIVITY
6
WEARABLES BY PURPOSE
8
FITNESSANDWELLNESS..........................................................................................................................8
HEALTHCARE........................................................................................................................................8
LIFESTYLE.............................................................................................................................................9
GAMINGANDENTERTAINMENT................................................................................................................9
9
WEARABLES BY TYPE
CONSUMERPREFERENCES
9
1.H EAD ....................................................................................................................................10
EARWEAR
11
ARDEVICES
12
VRDEVICES
12
OTHERHEADWEAR
13
2.B ODY ....................................................................................................................................14
SMARTGARMENTS
14
OTHERBODY-WORNFITNESSMONITORS
18
BODYCAMERAS
19
3.W RIST ..................................................................................................................................20
FITNESSWRISTBANDS
20
SMARTWATCHES
22
ECOSYSTEMS AND THE IOT: THE FUTURE OF WEARABLES
24
KEY TAKEAWAYS
24
DEBORAHWEINSWIG,MANAGINGDIRECTOR,FUNGGLOBALRETAIL&TECHNOLOGY
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Executive Summary
TheShapeoftheMarket
In2016,theglobalwearable
technologymarketwillbeworth$28.7
billion,andbrandsinthismarketwill
ship275millionunits,up18.4%from
2015levels.
In2016,theglobalwearabletechnologymarketwillbeworth$28.7billion,
andbrandsinthismarketwillship275millionunits,up18.4%over2015
levels, according to market-measurement firm Gartner; these figures
include a substantial contribution from borderline subcategories such as
Bluetoothheadphones.Gartnerforecaststhattotalwearableunitsshipped
willgrowataCAGRof17.9%between2015and2017,withthewrist-worn
wearablessegmentgrowingthefastest,ataCAGRof30%.
Source:Shutterstock
According to market-measurement firm IDC, in the first quarter of 2016,
thetopwearablesbrandswere:
•
•
•
•
•
Fitbit,with4.8millionunitsshipped.
Xiaomi,with3.7millionunitsshipped.
Apple,with1.5millionunitsshipped.
Garmin,with0.9millionunitsshipped.
SamsungandBBK,whicheachshipped0.7millionunits.
Themarket’srapidadvanceisreflectedbydevelopmentsattopbrands:
•
•
InMay2016,ProjectJacquard,apartnershipbetweenGoogleand
Levi’s, unveiled a connected jacket designed for urban cyclists.
The jacket has functionality similar to that of a smartphone;
wearerscancontroltheirmusicandanswercallsusingtechnology
embeddedinthesleeve.
In the same month, news websites reported that Jawbone had
slowed manufacturing of its UP range of wristbands and was
forced to sell its remaining inventory to a third-party reseller in
order to raise funds. However, Jawbone said it remains
committedtotheconsumerwearablescategory.
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ProspectsandInvestments
Ourviewisthatthewearablesmarketwillcontinuetogrowinthecoming
years, but that a slowdown is possible before the release of “wearables
2.0,” a second generation of products offering improved autonomy and
use cases. Wearables 1.0 are effectively just another screen for
smartphones.Weexpectthesecondgenerationofwearablestoconsistof
smart devices that act in conjunction and integrate with the Internet of
Things(IoT)autonomously.
Venture capital (VC) firms have invested nearly $2.6 billion in wearables
companiessince2008,accordingtoouranalysisofCrunchBasedata.Some
$1.5billionofthatwasinvestedin2014and2015alone.
Wearables are naturally converging with the IoT, and a number of
companieshavefocusedoncreatingsoftwareecosystemsforwellnessand
personalhealthcaremonitoring.SportswearcompaniesandITgiantssuch
asGoogleandApplearealsodevelopingsoftwarethatconnectsdevices.
SegmentationoftheMarket
Inthisreport,wehavedividedwearablesintocategoriesbasedonthepart
ofthebodyonwhichtheyareworn:head,bodyorwrist.
• Wearables for the head comprise a reasonably mature segment;
headphonesaloneareworthabout$10billionperyear,andBluetooth
headphonesaccountforabout55%ofthattotal.Otherdevicesinthe
category include virtual reality (VR) and augmented-reality (AR)
headsets.
• Wearables for the body include smart T-shirts, body cameras, highvisibility jackets, socks, shoes, bras and chest straps. Sportswear
companies are highly active in this segment and are working on
connecting fitness- and wellness-tracking devices with health-related
softwareecosystems.
• Wrist wearables is a segment that has experienced massive growth,
partlythankstoApple,whichshippednearly12millionAppleWatches
in2015,accordingtoIDC,despitelaunchingonlyinAprilofthatyear.
Apple’sentryinthepremiumwatchsegmenthasevenspurredsome
luxury watchmakers to create their own smartwatches. Another
notable maker of wrist wearables is Fitbit, which sold close to $2
billionworthoffitnessbandsandotherproductsin2015.
DEBORAHWEINSWIG,MANAGINGDIRECTOR,FUNGGLOBALRETAIL&TECHNOLOGY
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A Market Set for Double-Digit Growth
Thewearablescategoryisoneofthehottestconsumergoodsmarkets,and
verystronggrowthisexpectedintermsofunitsshippedandretailsalesin
2016 and the coming years. This report offers our latest overview of the
market, bringing together market data and forecasts, company and
subcategory profiles, and our wrap-up of the latest developments and
productlaunchesbysubcategory.Webeginwithasummaryofkeydataon
thesizeofthemarketandthedistributionofmarketshare.
MarketContinuestoGrowApace
Market-measurement companies have offered various forecasts for the
wearable technology market—the one thing they agree on is that the
marketisgrowingfast.InJanuary,Gartnerforecastthatthetotalnumber
ofwearableunitsshippedgloballywillgrowby18.4%yearoveryear,from
232millionin2015to275millionin2016.Thefirmexpectsunitshipments
to grow by 17.5% in 2017, to 323 million worldwide. Gartner values the
2016marketat$28.7billion,andforecaststhat:
• Wrist wearables will experience the highest growth within the
wearables segment; smartwatches and fitness bands are forecast to
growatCAGRof30.0%between2015and2017.
• Wearables worn on the head, including VR/AR devices, earwear and
Bluetooth headsets, will grow much more slowly, at a CAGR of 7.6%,
largelyduetothematurityoftheheadphonesmarket.
• Wearables for the body, including apparel, sportswear and body
cameras,areforecasttogrowataCAGRof11.8%.
Figure1.WearableUnitsShipped(Mil.)
322.69
WearablesCAGRs
2015–2017
Body:11.8%
Wrist:30.0%
Head:7.6%
Total:17.9%
274.59
232.01
35.31
34.06
81.49
39.42
137.73
109.35
Body
Wrist
Head
116.46
129.93
145.54
2015
2016
2017
Source:Gartner
Other market-measurement firms have estimated more conservative
figures, likely due to definitional reasons, such as whether Bluetooth
headsets are considered wearables. IDC, for instance, estimates that
around 110 million wearable devices will be shipped in 2016, up 38.2%
year over year. The firm forecasts that 100 million smartwatch and
wristband units will be shipped this year, along with 9.8 million units
spreadacrossclothing,eyewearand“hearables”(hi-techin-eardevices).In
2017,totalwearableshipmentswillgrowby26.1%,reaching137.8million
units,IDCforecasts.
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FitbitLeadsbyUnit-VolumeMarketShare
IDC said the top wearables brand owners in the first quarter of 2016, by
numberofunitsshipped,were:
• Fitbit,with4.8millionunitsshippedinthequarter.
• Xiaomi,with3.7millionunitsshipped.
• Apple,with1.5millionunitsshipped.
• Garmin,with0.9millionunitsshipped.
• SamsungandBBK,whicheachshipped0.7millionunits.
Across2015,thebrandrankingswerebroadlythesame.
Figure2.WearableUnitsShipped,byBrandOwner,2015
Units(Mil.)
Fitbit
21.0
Xiaomi
12.0
Apple
11.6
Garmin
Samsung
3.3
3.1
Others
27.0
Total
78.1
Source:IDC
It is worth reiterating that IDC’s definitions exclude some borderline
wearablescategories,includingBluetoothheadsets,thatsomeotherfirms
such as Gartner include in their market totals. IDC’s market research
focusesonfitnessbands,smartwatches,apparelandhearables.
Outlook:ConnectedSystemsWillFormWearables2.0
Ourviewisthatthewearablesmarketwillcontinuetogrowinthecoming
years, but that a slowdown is possible before the release of “wearables
2.0,” a second generation of products offering improved autonomy and
use cases. We expect wearables 2.0 to incorporate multiple connected
devices and cloud services that, together, offer more meaningful
enhancementstousers’lifestyles.
Wearables 1.0 are effectively just another screen for smartphones: the
devices include technology that is easily copied, and they have limited
functionality and normally require a connection via a smartphone. The
second generation of wearables will consist of smart devices that act in
conjunctionandintegratewiththeIoTautonomously.Oneexampleofthis
type of product is Sony’s Experia system, which combines wearables and
theIoTinordertofunctionasapersonalassistant.Anotherisconnected
garments from SensorKit, which rely on multiple sensors to detect the
wearer’sactivities.Thesensorsthencommunicatethedatatoasoftware
platformthatinterpretsandmeasuresthewearer’smovements.
Investment Activity
VC firms have invested nearly $2.6 billion in wearables companies since
2008,accordingtoouranalysisofCrunchBasedata.Overhalfofthattotal
DEBORAHWEINSWIG,MANAGINGDIRECTOR,FUNGGLOBALRETAIL&TECHNOLOGY
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($1.6billion)hasgoneintoCalifornia-basedstartups,andsome$1.5billion
ofthetotalwasinvestedin2014and2015alone.
WesummarizesomeofthemajorM&Aactivitybymarketsegmentlaterin
thisreport.
Figure3.VCFundingforWearablesCompanies(USDMil.)
$1,064.9
VCfirmshaveinvestednearly$2.6
billioninwearablescompaniessince
2008,accordingtoouranalysisof
CrunchBasedata.
$292
$35
$2.5
$32.1
2008
2009
2010
2011
$357
$361.5
2012
2013
$444.8
2014
2015
Source:CrunchBase
Fung Global Retail & Technology’s Market Matrix
The wearables market is seeing new segments develop and existing ones
merge. Fitness trackers are overlapping with smartwatches and with
software/cloud solutions that connect to multiple devices and to the IoT;
headphones embedded with smart sensors are converging with the
hearing-aid market; and autonomous products such as Nike’s self-lacing
shoesarebeinglaunched,furtherblurringtheboundariesofwearables.
Below is our matrix of companies active in key wearables segments,
followedbyadiscussionofthekeyusesforthedevices(suchasfitnessand
wellness),andareviewofproductdevelopmentsandmarketgrowth.
Figure4.WearablesMarketSegmentation
Fitness
Wellness
Head (e.g., Bluetooth
headsets)
and Earin
SpreeWearables
FreeWavz
Muse
Wrist(e.g.,smartwatches)
Body(e.g.,bodycameras)
IoT
(connected
systems)*
Fitbit
Jawbone
Xiaomi
Suunto
Lechal
Athos
Leo
Oxstren
OMsignal
ReTiSense
BodyCap
MediWiSe
MonicaHealth
Omron
Hexoskin
BionikLaboratories
MC10
Nike
Belty
UnderArmour
Polar
Healthcare
Sonova
Siemens
GNResound
Eargo
Lifestyle
Jabra
Sennheiser
Apple
SamsungGear
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Withings
Bluesmart
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JUNE21,2016
Plantronics
BlueAnt
Sony
Bose
Interaxon
DopplerLabs
Motorola
Bragi
Gaming
and OculusRift
Entertainment
GoogleGlass
HTCVive
HoloLens
PlayStationVR
LumusOptical
MagicLeap
Pebble
Garmin
Asus
TagHeuer
LG
Lenovo
SmaWatch
WiseWear
WiseWear
Thinx
Victoria’sSecret
RalphLauren
UnderArmour
Sony
GoPro
Narrative
ThalmicLabs
Somecompaniesareactiveinseveralcategories.Forsimplicity,wehaveorganizedthembythemainareaofactivityrelatedtowearables.
*TheIoTsegmentdoesnotconsistofindividualwearables,butofecosystemswheremultiplewearablesand/orotherIoT-connecteddevices
formagroupofproductsthatworktogether.Forexample,Polarcombinesitsfitnesssoftwarecloudwithawristtrackerandasmartscale.
Source:Companywebsites/FungGlobalRetail&Technology
Wearables by Purpose
Althoughwecategorizewearabledevicesbythepartofthebodyonwhich
theyareworn,thecoremeansofsegmentingwearabletechnologyisbyits
primaryuse.Asshowninthefirstcolumninthematrixabove,weidentify
fourcoreusecases:fitnessandwellness,healthcare,lifestyle,andgaming
andentertainment.
FitnessandWellness
Fitness and wellness wearable devices are designed to sense and track
datapointssuchasbodytemperature,workouttime,distancecoveredand
heart rate. Most of these are worn on the wrist, but there are also a
numberofclip-ons,chestbands,legbands,smartgarmentsandear-worn
devicesonthemarket.Numeroussoftwareapplicationsareincludedwith
these,fromverybasicmeasuringandmappingofrunningroutestomore
advancedofferings,suchascoaching,analysisanddailyrecommendations
foroptimizingone’sfitnessandwellness.
Healthcare
Healthcareusageinwearablescovers
bothconsumerandpatient
applications.Consumerhealthcare
productsarenoninvasiveandcanbe
purchasedoverthecounterwithouta
prescription.
Healthcare usage in wearables covers both consumer and patient
applications. Consumer healthcare products are noninvasive and can be
purchasedoverthecounterwithoutaprescription.Ifsoldasahealthcare
product, these wearables may be more heavily regulated. Patient
healthcareproducts(medicaldevices)arestrictlyregulatedbytheUSFood
and Drug Administration and the European Commission, among other
agencies. Healthcare wearables include hearing aids and sensors that
monitorheartrate,bloodpressureandglucose.Thesegmentalsoincludes
“lifestyle medical” cloud software applications that can collect data from
variouswearables.
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Source:Apple.com
In2015,ApplestartedtrialsforitsHealthKitcloudsolutionwithanumber
ofUShospitals.InMarch2016,thecompanyreleasedCareKit,describedas
“anewsoftwareframeworkdesignedtohelpdevelopersenablepeopleto
actively manage their own medical conditions.” The idea behind these
personal health record systems is to help patients manage their own
conditionsandassistphysiciansintreatingpatients.
Lifestyle
We characterize lifestyle wearables as products whose design is key to
their sale. This segment is effectively a subset of the broader lifestyle
brands segment, which spans apparel, technology and other categories
suchashomegoods.WeseeAppleasacorelifestylebrandanditsApple
Watch as a core lifestyle wearable; arguably, the main driver of Apple
Watch purchases is the value of the brand and design. We believe Nike’s
soon-to-be-launched HyperAdapt self-lacing shoe is also a lifestyle item,
givenNike’sbrandstrength.
GamingandEntertainment
The gaming and entertainment segment overlaps significantly with
wearablesdesignedforindustrialandenterpriseapplications.Forexample,
most AR wearables that are currently available target industrial and
enterprise use cases, while VR devices are almost exclusively targeted to
consumers via gaming and entertainment applications. However, only a
limited range of games and software are designed to incorporate VR, so
developers are still exploring various use cases for VR devices. It also
remainstobeseentowhatextententerpriseswillbewillingtopayforAR
wearables.
Wearables by Type
Morethanone-thirdofallconsumers
polledbyForresterresponded
positivelytotheideaofusinga
sensordeviceontheirwrist.
We segment the wearable device universe by the part of the body on
which the devices are worn. Below, we detail recent activity from major
brands,alongwithmarketestimatesandforecasts,brokenoutbythepart
ofthebodyonwhichthedevicesareworn:head,bodyorwrist.
ConsumerPreferences
In a 2014 study by Forrester, some 16,200 consumers across the US and
Europe were asked about their preference for wearing a sensor device.
Overall, US consumers reacted more positively to the idea than did their
European counterparts. But more than one-third of all consumers polled
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responded positively to the idea of using a sensor device on their wrist.
The wrist also proved the most popular location for a wearable device
amongthosesurveyed.
Source:SmartWatchReview
Figure5.PercentofUSandEuropeanInternetUsersRespondingFavorablyto“HowInterestedWouldYouBein
Wearing/UsingaSensorDevice,AssumingItWasfromaBrandYouTrustorOfferedaServicethatInterestsYou?”(2014)
42%
36%
35%
23%
19%
15%
OnWrist
Clippedonto
Clothing
Embeddedin
Clothing
21%
18%
12%
OnGlasses
US
Europe
10%
InEarphones/
Headphones
Base:4,556USInternetusersaged18+;11,647EUInternetusersaged18+
Source:Forrester
1. Head
TheheadwearablescategoryincludesBluetoothearphonesandARandVR
headsets. Some market-measurement firms do not incorporate any or all
oftheseintheirdataforthewearabletechmarket,butweincludethese
withinourdiscussionofthebroaderuniverseofwearables.
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Earwear
The earwear segment is mature and there is intense competition in the
category from established audio brands such as Sennheiser and Bose.
Amazon.co.uklistedmorethan1,000SKUsforBluetoothheadsetsinApril
2016, and about 500 of them were earbuds. Market intelligence firm ABI
Research estimated that Bluetooth headset retail revenues totaled about
$5.5 billion in 2014 (including stereo and mono headsets) and that the
combinedwiredandBluetoothheadsetmarketwasworthmorethan$10
billionthatyear.ABIforecastthatgrowthofBluetoothheadsetsaleswould
outpacethatofwiredheadsetsalesbetween2014and2019,withaCAGR
of18.7%.
Figure6.GlobalHeadsetRevenues,2014(USDMil.)
BluetoothHeadsets
(Mono)
$3,000
BluetoothHeadsets
(Stereo)
WiredHeadsets(Mono)
$2,500
$500
$4,500
WiredHeadsets(Stereo)
Source:ABIResearch
Continuedproductminiaturization
andnoise-cancellingandaudio
innovationscouldleadtheearwear
segmenttoconvergewiththe
hearing-aidmarketinthenear
future.
Most of the larger consumer electronics companies offer earwear. These
productsarehighlyinfluencedbycelebrityendorsementsandfashionable
designs,andincludeproductsfromBeatsbyDre(whichhasbeenacquired
by Apple) and 50 Cent’s SMS Audio (which has partnered with Intel).
Accordingtonewswebsite9to5Mac.com,Appleisgearinguptolauncha
brandedheadphonecalledAirPodswiththenewiPhone7.
Continued product miniaturization and noise-cancelling and audio
innovationscouldleadtheearwearsegmenttoconvergewiththehearingaid market in the near future. The global hearing-aid market was worth
$6.2billionin2015,accordingtoResearchandMarkets.Bone-conducting
hearingaids,whichtransmitsoundstoauser’searsthroughvibrationson
hisorherskull,havebeenaroundforawhile,buttheyhaveonlyrecently
become available for consumers. Damson, AfterShokz and Panasonic are
amongthebrandsofferingbone-conductingdevices.
Earbudproductshavealsoprovedpopularoncrowdfundingsites:
•
RippleBuds raised $750,00 by the end of April in its crowdfunding
campaignonKickstarter.
•
Earin raised $1.4 million on Kickstarter in June 2014. The Earin
product, which does not include any sensors or a microphone, was
shipped to preorder customers in October 2015 and now retails at
$249.
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•
Source:Earin.com
Bragi raised $3.4 million on Kickstarter for its Dash earbuds, which
include27sensorsandretailat$299.
Source:Bragi.com
ARDevices
AR applications have clearly defined industrial and business-to-business
usecases.Buthardwareandsoftwarepricesarelikelytoremaintoohigh
to ensure mass consumer uptake in the immediate future, and it is still
unknownifevenindustrywillbewillingtoinvestinARatcurrentprices.
Goldman Sachs lists four main players in AR: Google Glass, Microsoft
HoloLens, ODG Smartglasses and Atheer. The AR consumer segment may
well open up in gaming and entertainment, but it could ultimately
converge with the lifestyle eyewear market, in particular the high-end
segment.Lifestyleeyewearisworthabout$90billionperyear,according
to2015datafromEuromonitorInternational.
Above,fromtop:MicrosoftHoloLens,
$3,000;ODGR7Smartglasses,$2,750;
AtheerAiR,$3,950;GoogleGlass,
$1,500(discontinued;GoogleGlass
v2.0isscheduledforreleasein
summer2016)
Source:Companywebsites
In 2015, Intel partnered with Italian eyewear manufacturer Luxottica and
its Oakley brand to fuse premium, luxury and sports eyewear with smart
technology. According to tech news website Slashgear.com, Luxottica has
collaborated with Google as well. In 2015, Intel acquired Recon
Instruments,anARheadsetmanufacturer,furtherenhancingitspositionin
theconsumersmart-glassescategory.
VRDevices
The VR market has opened up with the introduction of “smartphone VR
sets,”whicharemostlypricedfrom$10–$150.Essentiallyaboxwithtwo
holes to see through, such devices can be connected to a smartphone in
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ordertoconvertitintoaVRset.GoogleCardboardisoneofthecheapest
versions on the market, and the boxes are produced by a variety of
suppliers.
“Proper”VRheadsetsincludeabuilt-inscreen,anaccelerometerandother
advanced electronics. Examples of these include the Oculus Rift, released
in April 2016 with a selling price of $600; the Sony PlayStation VR, to be
releasedinthefourthquarterof2016withapriceofabout$400;andthe
HTCVive,whichbeganshippinginApril2016withapriceofaround$799.
SmartphoneVRHolders
GoogleCardboardandSamsungGearVR
Source:Google.com/Samsung.com
OtherHeadwear
SpreeSmartCapandArchosMusicBeany
Source:SpreeWearables.com/Archos.com
Spree Wearables offers various headwear products, including the
SmartCap and the Spree Headband fitness monitor, as well as a fitness
app.TheSmartCapwaslaunchedin2014andSportsIllustratedawardedit
“Best in Show” at the CES trade show that year. Amazon.com lists the
SmartCap for $185, including delivery. Also in 2014, Archos, which
produces a range of smartphones, tablets and IoT gear, launched the
Archos Music Beany. This hat is currently available from the Archos
websiteforabout$40.
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2. Body
SmartGarments
A number of clothing brands have produced apparel with built-in
technology.However,thelongevityandappealofsomeofthesegarments
hasbeenlimited,insomecasesapparentlyduetoopportunisticmarketing
and a lack of strategic foresight. For example, toward the end of 2014,
Victoria’sSecretlauncheda$75heart-monitoringbrabasedontechnology
fromClothing+,buttheproductappearedtohavebeendiscontinuedwhen
wesearchedforitinJune2016.
ProjectJacquardjacketcuff
Source:Google.com
A wearable tech partnership that has recently borne fruit is Project
Jacquard, which Google and Levi’s launched in 2015 to develop products
thatuseconductivetextilesandmachinelearningtointerpretmotions.In
May 2016, the two companies unveiled a connected jacket designed for
urban cyclists. The jacket has smartphone-connected functionality that
allows users to control their music and answer calls using technology
embeddedinthejacket’ssleeve.
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Clockwisefromtopleft:ClothingfromFhossTechnology,LumoandVisijax
Source:Companywebsites
Anumberofsmallercompaniesareproducingsafetywearforcyclistsand
workers in the building trades. Visijax and Lumo are two UK-based
manufacturers of garments with built-in, battery-powered LEDs. Fhoss
Technology creates similar, high-visibility clothing that is targeted to
customers in the construction industry. The company had revenues of
about$120,000in2014.AcompanycalledInfi-texproducesaconductive
ink that can be applied to garments pre- or postproduction, making it
possible to create flexible electrical circuits on top of garments. The
company says it has experienced an increase in inquiries over the last 12
months.
SmartGarments:SportswearandtheIoT
NikewillreleaseitsHyperAdapt1.0
self-lacingshoeinthefourthquarter
of2016,initiallyonlytousersofthe
Nike+app.Theshoewillenablethe
wearertogetjusttherightfitand
tightnessasit“adapts”tothe
wearer’sfoot.
Source:Nike.com
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Clockwise from top left: Adidas miCoach Football; UA Gemini 2; Adidas miCoach Fit Smart;
UAScale(partofHealthBox)
Source:Companywebsites
Since 2013, Adidas, Under Armour and Asics have spent a combined $1
billion acquiring companies that develop fitness and health software
applications. Nike dropped its fitness-tracking-band division in 2014, but
hassincedevelopedtheNike+fitness-trackingsoftwareapplication,which
isfeaturedontheAppleWatch.Underscoringtheimportanceofsoftware
applications to the sportswear market, in January 2016, Under Armour
partnered with IBM Watson to ensure that UA Record software users
receive notifications that help them optimize their daily fitness, wellness
andsleeprhythms.
Therehasbeenotheractivityinthissegment,too:
• Under Armour has been partnering with HTC since 2015 to develop
wearablesandIoTgear.
• Adidasislicensinganddevelopinghardwaretechnologyin-house.
• AsicsisofferingSony’sSmartB-Traineronitswebsiteincombination
withtheMyAsicsactivity-trackingandcoachingsoftwareapplication.
• Nikehasallowedmostfitnessandactivityhardwaretrackersandgear
to connect to its Nike+ coaching and personalized fitness and health
software platform, and the company is focusing its efforts on
functional wear powered by mechatronics (a mixture of electronics
andmechanics)inordertoattractuserstoitsplatform.
• Nike will release its HyperAdapt 1.0 self-lacing shoe in the fourth
quarterof2016,initiallyonlytousersoftheNike+app.Itwillbethe
first mass-produced self-lacing shoe and will rely on a mixture of
mechanical and electronic engineering for its functionality, enabling
thewearertogetjusttherightfitandtightnessastheshoe“adapts”
to the wearer’s foot. The price and release date have not yet been
announced.
• UnderArmourlauncheditsHealthBoxinJanuary.For$400,customers
getascale,fitnesswristbandandachest-strapheart-ratemonitor.The
setincludesasubscriptiontoappssuchasMapMyRun,MyFitnessPal,
EndomondoandUARecord.
• In February, Under Armour launched its UA Record–equipped
SpeedForm Gemini 2 smart shoes, which retail for $150. The shoes
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include an auto-sleep fitness sensor that activates the tracking
functionality when the wearer is working out. The shoes can record
five runs’ worth of details before the runner needs to download the
informationtoacomputerorsmartphone.
• In January, New Balance announced that it was launching a Digital
Sport division to develop wearable, embedded and analytic
technology. The company also revealed that it was partnering with
Intelondevelopingasportswatchforrunners.
NikeHyperAdapt1.0,UAHealthBox
Source:Nike.com/Underarmour.com
Source:Adidas.com
Adidas was an early mover in wearable technology. In 2008, it acquired
Textronics,aspin-offfromDuPontTextiles&Interiorsthatwasbackedby
Physic Ventures. The company developed wearable sensors for use in
fitnessandhealthmonitoring,andStaceyBurr,itsCEO,movedtoAdidasas
VP of Wearable Sports Electronics. In 2015, Adidas acquired fitness and
health applications developer Runtastic. Adidas produces a range of
wearablefitnesstechnologyunderthemiCoachbrand,whichisakeyline
for the company and includes fitness and health software developed by
Exos and hardware from Mio. In April 2016, Adidas.com listed nine
miCoachproductsranginginpricefrom$30–$420.
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SmartSports:SummaryProfiles
Figure7.Nike(2015)
Revenues
$30.6billion
Category%ofRevenues
Footwear
Apparel:
Equipment:
Converse:
GlobalBrands:0.4%
Wearables
HyperAdapt
1.0
FuelBand(discontinued)
SoftwareApp
Nike+
59.7%
28.1%
5.3%
6.5%
(shoes)
Source:Companyreports/FungGlobalRetail&Technology
Figure8.Adidas(2015)
Revenues
$19.3billion
Category%ofRevenues
Footwear
Apparel:
Hardware:9.4%
Wearables
FitSmart(fitnesswristband),SmartRun
(smartwatch),SmartBall(soccerball),X-Cell
(chest-strapheart-ratemonitor),SpeedCell
(fitnessclipforshoes),HeartRateMonitor
SoftwareApp
miCoach
49.4%
41.2%
Source:Companyreports/FungGlobalRetail&Technology
Figure9.UnderArmour(2014)
Revenues
$3.1billion
Category%ofRevenues
Footwear:
Apparel:
Accessories:
Licensing:
ConnectedFitness:1.7%
Wearables
UAHealthBox(setofproducts),UABand(fitness
tracker),UAScale,UAHeartRate(cheststrap),UA
Headphones(Bluetooth),GeminiSpeedForm2
(shoes)
SoftwareApp
UARecord,MapMyFitness,MyFitnessPal,
Endomondo
19.7%
65.6%
10.7%
2.3%
Source:Companyreports/FungGlobalRetail&Technology
Asics had revenues of about $4 billion (¥428 billion) in 2015, but the
companydoesnotbreakdownsalesbycategory.
OtherBody-WornFitnessMonitors
Some fitness monitors include clips or other types of fasteners for
attachingthemtothebody.Gartnerhasforecastthatthenumberofcheststrap and other body-worn devices will remain stagnant, at about 33
million units shipped per year. However, the firm predicts that this
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segment’s share of the overall wearables market will drop from 15% in
2015tojustover10%in2017.
UnderArmourlauncheditsHealthBox
inJanuary2016.For$400,customers
getascale,afitnesswristbandanda
chest-strapheart-ratemonitor.Theset
includesasubscriptiontoappssuchas
MapMyRun,MyFitnessPal,Endomondo
andUARecord.
UAHeartRatecheststrap,whichisincludedintheUAHealthBox
Source:Underarmour.com
BodyCameras
In the body cameras segment, new entrants, smartphone manufacturers
andtraditionalcameramakersarefightingformarketshare.GoProisthe
leaderinthesegment,with2015revenuesof$1.6billion.Itscamerasstart
atabout$130andpricesgouptoabout$580forpremiumcameras.Sony
and Panasonic are also active in the segment, but they have elected to
createcamerasforgeneraluseandtoofferattachmentsthatcanbeworn
on the chest or head (or by dogs) rather than to create cameras that are
specificallydesignedtobewornonthebody.
Thesegmentiscrowdedwithnumerousgenericbrandsandvarioustypes
of “spy cameras” in the $20–$70 range, which are providing tough
competitionforthemoreestablishedbrands:
• iONandXiaomiaretwobrandsfightingitoutinthesub-$100rangeof
wearablecameras.
• The midrange, where cameras run from about $150–$400, is
populatedbybrandssuchasNarrative,PolaroidandVievu.
• GoProhasestablisheditselfatthemedium-to-highendofthemarket.
• Nikonjoinedthehighendin2016whenitlauncheditsKeyMission360
wearable camera, which is priced just below $600. The product
competesdirectlywithGoPro’sHero4camera.
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Figure10.PriceMapofSelectedWearableCameras,April2016(USD)
700
580
570
600
USD
500
349
400
300
150
200
150
75
70
XiaomiYi
iONSnapcam
100
0
GoProHero4
Nikon
KeyMission360
Vievu
Polaroid
Narraqve
Source:Companywebsites/FungGlobalRetail&Technology
Despiteitsgrowth,thebody
wearablessegmentillustratesthe
difficultyofbuildingconsumer
brandsfromscratch.
A recent study by Gartner estimates that 170,000 body cameras will be
shippedin2016and1.05millionin2017.However,webelievethemarket
may have matured faster than these estimates suggest, and that 2016
couldseecloserto1millionunitsshipped.Webaseourownestimateon
GoPro’stotalrevenuesfor2015:assumingallthecompany’scamerascost
$600andthat10%ofallthecamerasitsoldlastyearwerebodycameras,
GoProwouldhavesold270,000bodycamerasin2015,weestimate.
OMG Life was one of the first companies to produce a wearable camera.
However, in 2014, the company recognized the unaffordable marketing
spend required to build a consumer brand for its Autographer range of
wearablecameras.Initsmostrecentannualaccounts(forfiscalyear2014),
the company announced it would drop its consumer range and switch to
licensingitsintellectualpropertytoconsumertechnologymanufacturers.
3. Wrist
FitnessWristbands
Shipments of activity-tracking wristbands will reach 44.1 million units in
2017, up from 30.2 million in 2015, according to Gartner estimates.
However, this 46% forecast growth is less than half of the 120%-plus
growthexpectedforsmartwatches.
The prospect of such growth has heightened competition, which has, in
turn, prompted makers of fitness wristbands to respond with closures,
acquisitionsandlaunches:
• InMay2016,websiteTechInsiderreportedthatJawbonehadceased
manufacturing its UP range of wristbands and was forced to sell its
remaining inventory to a third-party reseller in order to raise funds.
However, Jawbone was quick to deny these reports, and said it
remainscommittedtotheconsumerwearablescategory.TechInsider
subsequently revised its story to report that Jawbone had slowed
DEBORAHWEINSWIG,MANAGINGDIRECTOR,FUNGGLOBALRETAIL&TECHNOLOGY
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productionofitsdevices,butstoodbyitsclaimsthatthecompanyhad
offloadeditsinventory.
• Following Apple’s 2014 announcement that it would launch a
smartwatch,andtherunawaysuccessofFitbit,Nikedecidedtoclose
itsownfitnesstrackerdivision.
• In the same year, Intel acquired Basis Science, a maker of fitness
wristbands.
• In2015,FossilacquiredfitnessbandmakerMisfitfor$260million.
• Swatch launched Touch Zero One, a smartwatch targeting beach
volleyballplayers,in2015.
Figure 11. Selected Fitness-Tracking Wristbands: Original Price and Price on
Amazon.comasofApril2016(USD)
OriginalPrice
Amazon.com
Price
PolarA360
199.95
190.00
MicrosoftBand2
249.99
174.99
GarminVivosmart
149.99
149.99
BasisPeak
199.99
149.99
AdidasmiCoachFitSmart
199.99
136.30
PolarA300
159.95
130.00
FitbitChargeHR
149.95
129.99
FitbitAlta
129.00
129.00
SamsungGearFit
149.99
119.00
MisfitShine2
99.99
99.99
GarminVivofit3
99.90
99.90
JawboneUP2
99.90
74.30
FitbitFlex
99.95
68.99
GarminVivofit
129.99
49.99
SonySmartBandSWR10
99.99
30.99
XiaomiMi
23.98
23.98
MisfitFlash
29.99
19.99
Doesnotincludesmartwatches.
Source:Amazon.com
Fitnesswristbandsvaryinpricefromabout$20–$200,withmostbranded
productsfallinginthe$100–$200range.However,wethinkthe$100-plus
segmentwillseefurtherpricepressuresandthatpricesarelikelytodrop,
especiallyasthemarketforlower-pricedsmartwatchesgrows.
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Smartwatches
Marketforecastsforunitsalesof
smartwatcheshaverangedfrom
enthusiastictoveryoptimistic,but
alackofdataonAppleWatch
shipmentshasaddeduncertainty
toestimates.
Source:Apple.com
Market forecasts for unit sales of smartwatches have ranged from
enthusiastic to very optimistic, but a lack of data on Apple Watch
shipments has added uncertainty to estimates. IDC estimates that 28.3
million smartwatches will be shipped in 2016, with Apple Watches
accountingfor14millionofthese.By2020,some82.5millionsmartwatch
unitswillbeshippedannually,IDCforecasts.
Market analysis firm Canalys estimates that Apple shipped 4.2 million
Apple Watches in the second quarter of 2015, following its April release
that year. Canalys further estimates that the Apple Watch accounted for
two-thirdsofthesmartwatchmarketin2015,withabout12millionunits
shipped.
Despiteitsgrowth,thesmartwatch
markethasexperienceddownward
pricepressurefrommanufacturersof
cheapermodels.
Despite its growth, the smartwatch market has experienced downward
price pressure from manufacturers of cheaper models, such as Airsspu,
Yuntab,VcallandUWatch.
SignsthatthemarketmaybecoolingsurfacedinMarch,whensmartwatch
brand Pebble announced it would lay off 25% of its workforce and Apple
droppeditsentrypricefortheAppleWatchSportfrom$349to$299.
Cheapergenericsmartwatchesnowstartatabout$20andgoupto$100,
whilebrandedsmartwatchesstartatabout$100andgoupto$17,000for
theAppleWatchEdition18-Karat.High-endnonluxurysmartwatchesrange
fromabout$250–$600.Apple’sleastexpensivesmartwatchstartsat$299.
TheSmartwatchGroup,anindependentresearchcompany,estimatedthat
the number of smartwatch suppliers more than doubled from 2013 to
2014,fromabout40toabout90,andforecastthattherewouldbecloser
to300in2016.
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Figure12.SelectedSmartwatches:RetailPrice,April2016(USD)
600
549 500 499
500
USD
400
350 330
300
200
299 299 295 289
265 240
220 210 200 195
179 170
130 110
100
0
Source:Amazon.com/Watchshop.com/Apple.com
LuxurySmartwatches
The response to the growing smartwatch market from luxury watch
manufacturers has been muted to date. However, according to Creative
Strategies, the traditional wristwatch market reached $62 billion and 1.2
billionunitsshippedin2015,soperhapsluxurywatchmakers’hesitationto
launchnewproductlinesisunderstandable.
Applehasreleasedtwowatchrangesin
theluxurysegment,theAppleWatch
Hermès(startingat$1,100)andthe
AppleWatchEdition18-Karat(which
retailsforupto$17,000).Breitling,
Bulgari,MontblancandTagHeuerhave
alsoreleasedsmartwatches.
Apple has released two watch ranges in the luxury segment, the Apple
Watch Hermès (starting at $1,100) and the Apple Watch Edition 18-Karat
(which retails for up to $17,000). Breitling, Bulgari, Montblanc and Tag
Heuer are a few of the luxury brands that have released smartwatches.
Bulgari’s smartwatch incorporates an NFC chip and Breitling has added a
smartphoneconnectiontoitsExospaceB55model.TagHeuer’sConnected
watchcomesclosesttotheAppleWatchintermsoffunctionality.
Figure13.SelectedLuxurySmartwatches:RetailPrice,April2016(USD)
$10,000
$9,330
$3,900
$3,300
$1,500
AppleEdiqon18- BreitlingExospace BulgariDiagono
Karat
B55
Magnesium
Montblanc
Timewalker
TagHeuer
Connected
$1,100
ApplexHermès
Source:Companywebsites/FungGlobalRetail&Technology
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Ecosystems and the IoT: The Future of Wearables
XperiaProjectorandXperiaAgent
Source:Sony
Thefutureofthewearabletechnologymarketlookslikeitwillbemarked
by new products in existing categories, strong market growth and
diversification, with brands offering ecosystems of connected devices.
Already, some companies are starting to ideate concepts rather than
individualproducts.Notableexamplesinclude:
• UnderArmour’sHealthBox,whichcomeswithaUAScale,aUABand
and a UA Heart Rate chest strap, all of which connect to UA Record,
thecompany’sfitnessandhealthsoftwareapplication.Customersare
keentomeasurevariousaspectsoftheirhealth,fitnessandwellness,
andtheirinteresthasgivenrisetothenotionofthe“quantifiedself.”
• Fitbit, Polar and Withings, which are all diversifying from their core
productsandofferingsmartscales,amongotheritems.
• Sony,whichhasextendeditsXperiasmartphonebrand.Thecompany
now also offers a smart headset, a smart camera and a smart
projector.Theheadsetcanassistthewearerwithdirections,weather,
and updates from social media and email. The Sony PlayStation Eye
(camera) is voice activated but can also film automatically. The
company’s projector will be able to beam interactive content onto a
wallortable.Thecentralthemeisthatthecompanywillincorporate
machine learning in the range, allowing for a more user-centric
experience, with the technology acting as the user’s own personal
assistant.
As the market matures, we expect to see the emergence of more
ecosystemofferingsthatmixwearablesandcloudapplications.
Key Takeaways
Innovationandchangearerifeinthewearablesmarket.Alargenumberof
startups—fueled by access to cheap components, 3D printing and willing
crowdfunders—have emerged, and some have been further funded or
acquiredbyVCfirmsorcorporatebuyers.
Themarketischaracterizedbyanumberofkeytrends:
•
The wearables market is merging and overlapping with other
markets,suchasmedicaldevices.
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•
Largercompaniesappeartobedevelopingwearableswithamore
strategic approach; the collaboration between Levi’s and Google
is one example of this. In the past, a number of companies
launched items such as smart shirts, bras or socks, but these
effortsseemedtobemainlyforPRvalue.
•
Fitness is becoming synonymous with wellness and personal
health.Thetrendisbeingdrivenbythesportsweargiantsandby
IT companies such as Google and Apple, which are developing
wellness data clouds that allow people to measure, track and
analyzemoreoftheirdailyactivities.
More significantly, we see two major trends underpinning the continued
growthofthewearablesmarket:
•
The emergence of “wearables 2.0” will shift the category from
stand-alonedevicestolifestyle-enhancingsystemstyingtogether
multiple connected devices and cloud services. Brands such as
UnderArmourarecurrentlyleadingthewayinofferingbundlesof
connectedproductsandservices.
•
Wristwear has dominated product launches and driven market
growthsofar,buttheclothingandsportswearcategorieslookset
to expand in terms of wearables offerings. In May 2016, Google
and Levi’s launched their first product collaboration, a smart
jacket, and products scheduled to launch later in 2016 include
Nike’sself-lacingshoes.
DEBORAHWEINSWIG,MANAGINGDIRECTOR,FUNGGLOBALRETAIL&TECHNOLOGY
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DeborahWeinswig,CPA
ManagingDirector
FungGlobalRetail&Technology
NewYork:917.655.6790
HongKong:852.6119.1779
China:86.186.1420.3016
[email protected]
JohnMercer
SeniorAnalyst
JohnHarmon,CFA
SeniorAnalyst
ThomasAndersson
GuestWriter
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