ASSESSING THE PREPAREDNESS AND MITIGATION RESEARCH ON TORNADOES:
CLARIFYING RISK PERCEPTIONS AND IDENTIFYING CONTRADICTIONS
A Paper
Submitted to the Graduate Faculty
of the
North Dakota State University
of Agricultural and Applied Sciences
By
Pierre Albert Freeman
In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements
for the Degree of
MASTER OF SCIENCE
Major Department:
Emergency Management
December 2012
Fargo, North Dakota
North Dakota State University
Graduate School
Title
Assessing the Preparedness and Mitigation Research on Tornadoes:
Clarifying Risk Perceptions and Identifying Contradictions
By
Pierre Albert Freeman
The Supervisory Committee certifies that this disquisition complies with
North Dakota State University’s regulations and meets the accepted standards
for the degree of
MASTER OF SCIENCE
SUPERVISORY COMMITTEE:
Dr. Daniel Klenow
Chair
Dr. George Youngs
Dr. D. K. Yoon
Dr. Paul Homan
Approved:
December 2012
Date
Dr. Daniel Klenow
Department Chair
ABSTRACT
This paper examines literature from various disciplines contributing to the objective of
saving lives and reducing damages from tornadoes. Specific topics include changes in tornado
incidence, the genesis of tornadoes, and alterations in geographical distributions of tornadoes. I
also review data on damages, casualties and deaths along with associated housing type
vulnerability and atypical nocturnal tornado events. Literature associated with predictions
including historical data and forecasting is addressed. Further data was presented regarding false
alarms, warnings, watches and response behavior. Finally, mitigation issues regarding policy
and planning, building practices and sheltering is reviewed. While reviewing the data, several
contradictions were found regarding density, lead time expectations, vehicular use and actual
increases in events and damages. Perception of risk may be dependent on factors of cultural
geography and societal memory. Improved understanding of warning times, effective education,
outreach and removing the human factor in tornadoes are points that need further study.
iii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
David Berryhill, Ph.D., was a long time mentor, educator and friend. Due to Dave’s
enthusiasm, patience and interest, he provided the motivation to excel. Dave may not be here
today to witness the fulfillment of my degree, but I acknowledge, recognize and thank David
Berryhill as my informal advisor and as my outside member up until his passing in 2011. He is
as much a part of this paper as any and all who has contributed time and efforts to make it
happen.
I would also like to acknowledge my family for having the patience and support
throughout this process. Specifically, I would like to thank my wife, Sara for edits
encouragement, support and understanding. To those who have supported us, Brian and Annette
Freeman, the Godons and our friends, for which all this would not have been made possible
without their generosity, I would also like to say thank you.
I want to acknowledge and thank each committee member, Drs. Paul Homan (outside
member), George Youngs, DK Yoon, and my advisor, Dr. Daniel Klenow, for all their hard
work, discussions and knowledge. Each contributed enormously to my education and made it a
wonderful experience.
iv
TABLE OF CONTENTS
ABSTRACT. .................................................................................................................................. iii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ........................................................................................................... iv
LIST OF TABLES ........................................................................................................................ vii
LIST OF FIGURES ..................................................................................................................... viii
CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................1
CHAPTER 2. TORNADOES ..........................................................................................................4
Incidences, Genesis and “Alleys” .......................................................................................4
Nocturnal Events .................................................................................................................9
Damages ............................................................................................................................10
Casualties ...........................................................................................................................10
Housing Types ...................................................................................................................15
CHAPTER 3. PREDICTIONS ......................................................................................................17
History................................................................................................................................17
Forecast ..............................................................................................................................19
CHAPTER 4. PREPAREDNESS ..................................................................................................22
Warning and Watches ........................................................................................................22
False Alarms ......................................................................................................................26
Societal Behavior ...............................................................................................................28
CHAPTER 5. MITIGATION ........................................................................................................33
Policy and Planning ...........................................................................................................35
Building Practices ..............................................................................................................40
Mobile Home Threat ..........................................................................................................44
v
Sheltering ...........................................................................................................................45
CHAPTER 6. CONCLUSIONS ....................................................................................................49
REFERENCES ..............................................................................................................................53
vi
LIST OF TABLES
Table
Page
1.
Total number of tornadoes occurring per 10 year period..................................................11
2.
Enhanced Fujita scale……..……………………..............................................................12
vii
LIST OF FIGURES
Table
Page
1.
Tornadogenesis....................................................................................................................5
2.
Traditional tornado alley......................................................................................................6
3.
Modern tornado alleys.........................................................................................................7
4.
Projectile penetrating tire...................................................................................................13
5.
Hook pattern in radar echo.................................................................................................17
6.
Multiple vortices................................................................................................................20
7.
Greensburg Kansas damaged.............................................................................................36
8.
Debris fields pulling material into the center of the vortex...............................................41
9.
Hurricane strapping holding framing to foundation..........................................................42
viii
CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION
Each year the recorded number of tornadoes across the United States (U.S.) has
consistently increased beyond previously reported averages. According to the National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there were 1,400 recorded tornadoes in 2010. This is
in contrast to the annual average of 1,077 since the onset of tornado data documentation in 1950
(NOAA, 2012). To the casual observer, U.S. tornado data shows a trend towards increasing
events per year as well as increasing damages. While the raw data shows these increases, the
rationale for the increase is complex. For this reason it is important to look at the variables
behind the data. From 1950, the average annual property damage loss, according to NOAA, is
approximately $400 million. Injuries and deaths over this same period do not follow the same
pattern as the recorded damages and total number of events. In reviewing data for deaths caused
by tornadoes, it is observed that the annual number of deaths has remained relatively constant
over the past 30 years (approximately 57 deaths) opposed to the annual average of 81 since 1950.
However, over the last 60 years the annual downward trend seems to be consistent. I wanted to
review the research, specifically historical trends, predictions as well as, preparedness and
mitigation research to shed light on these seemingly interesting trends. I found several
contradictions in the literature and many other consistent points approached from differing
avenues of research. As an emergency manager it is important to understand all the potential
sources of information and how they impact and add to our discipline.
Considering the population increases, progress in efforts to reduce deaths seems to be
effective. In the last 30 years, annual injuries remained relatively unchanged, as have deaths due
to tornadoes. But unlike deaths, from 1950 to 1980, injuries increased, and then drastically
dropped in the following years. Annual average deaths due to tornadoes have stayed the same
1
despite the advancements in tornado understanding and detection. In theory, through our efforts
in prediction, preparedness and mitigation, these numbers should be on the downward trend, yet
in 2011 numerous lives were lost in Joplin, Missouri. While the use of warning systems has
been valuable, the technology of recognizing high risk weather patterns has increased lead times
in warnings. The same is also true for how we have been mitigating the effects of tornadoes.
While we may know that tornadoes are destructive we need to understand the details involved
such as, how they destroy property, how people react to warnings and what measures we can
take to save lives. There is evidence to guide emergency managers towards informed decisions
about tornadoes and their impacts.
Is current literature adequately guiding emergency managers through the trends and
directions that result in reductions of overall deaths, injuries, and losses? The purpose of this
review is to examine and synthesize literature on tornadoes, predictions, preparedness and
mitigation to understand the existing research, contradictions such as planning issues,
clarifications on the raw tornado data, a shifting historical “tornado alley” and possible gaps such
as nocturnal tornadogenesis. The articles reviewed are those that focus on tornado research in
the U.S. The aim is to aggregate that research literature aiding our understanding in the area of
tornadoes and emergency management today. I have elected not to discuss response and
recovery, as these two phases of emergency management focus on reactionary principles to
events, and the topics outlined above focus more on a proactive approach. The following sections
begin by examining the relevant facts regarding tornadoes specific to the U.S., focusing on the
damages, deaths and injuries. After establishing the prevalence and severity of tornadoes in the
U.S., I will provide an overview of the current research regarding tornado predictions. My focus
in this section is on the technology used in identifying tornadoes and meteorological patterns that
2
can create tornadic events. It is important to understand this issue because it underlies the basis
for preparedness and warnings are of the most critical actions in towards mitigation. The last
two sections will focus on preparedness and mitigation specific to tornadoes in the U.S. In
conclusion, this review will provide an understanding of the literature concerning tornadoes and
the findings specific to those three areas mentioned. Contradictions and important insights will
be presented throughout the review and summarized in the conclusions. Overall, tornadoes are
only understood to the depth of what has been provided in the literature. To understand one
issue it is important as emergency managers to inform ourselves in all the facets of the hazards.
3
CHAPTER 2. TORNADOES
Currently, the U.S. is encountering high incidences of tornadoes in areas beyond the
traditionally defined “tornado alley.” For tornadoes, 2011 was a year of record setting events for
annual damages, total number per day, total per month and second to 2004 in total number of
events per year. As technology improves and warning lead time increases, it is important to call
attention to the issues involved with advancing technology and warning. It is also relevant to
bring to light the potential issues in mitigation in an area where limited options are available.
Historically, “tornado alley” has been attributed to central Midwest region, but the impacts of
tornadoes go beyond this area and research shows increased vulnerability regarding deaths,
injuries and damages. Understanding this literature is critical at a time when tornadoes are
impacting communities that have not typically experienced this natural hazard.
Incidences, Genesis and “Alleys”
Tornadoes have been reported in all fifty states; no matter where one lives, the
probability of a tornado exists (Ashley 2007). Mileti (1999) stated that the U.S. has the most
tornadoes of any place on earth and tornadoes are the number one cause of injuries from natural
hazards. However, research shows that heat waves killed more people overall in the U.S. during
the period of 1970-2004 (Borden and Cuttter, 2008). Although it is not a “killer” it impacts the
U.S. significantly. The National Weather Service (NWS) has tracked tornadoes since the 1950s,
and subsequently there have been almost 60,000 total tornadoes, directly causing 5,600 deaths.
Earlier records on average show there were approximately 600 tornadic events a year, although
there is research that disputes that average, and suggests there are 60 more tornadoes per hundred
reported across the U.S. Recently the reported number of annual tornadoes has been above
1,300. Mitchell and Thomas (2001) observed this upward trend and predicted that the trend
4
would not decrease. Their observations and predictions have been accurate thus far, but nuances
with the data need to be explored.
Tornadoes are not fully understood from a meteorological standpoint, although certain
components are accepted as theory. A tornadic event begins as air rushes inward centrally
toward a low pressure area. It then drives upward in a spiraling fashion centrifuging heavier
matter to the outside. This vortex is termed “the mesocyclone” coined by Ted Fujita. Although
that description sounds simple, there are mechanics and physics involved specific to
tornadogenesis. Tornadoes are hypothesized to develop according to Figure 1: a horizontal
rotational airflow (a wall cloud) resembling a tube rolling parallel to the ground surface gets
pulled up on end as it encounters an updraft due to ground or surface heating. This creates the
visual anvil as it pulls hot air into the upper atmosphere. As this tube gets stretched it increases
in rotation due to the physics of angular momentum. The moist, heated air rises and tilts the
formation forward releasing moisture in a downdraft as rain. Rain, although not always
associated with tornadoes, and cooler air spread out in front of the supercell. From here the
process of downdrafts, front and rear, and the shifting of the mesocyclone to the rear of the
supercell, away from the updraft column is all theory and not well understood. These events are
complex meteorologically, and due to the complexity, no two storms are the same nor are the
Figure 1. Tornadogenesis (Source, Freeman sketch 2012 –based on reproduction of figures
from the NWS Pamphlet # NOAA/PA 201051).
5
conditions identical for the creation of the tornado. Both the National Weather Service and the
Storm Prediction Center concur that neither organization understands the exact manner of how
tornadoes develop.
Tornadoes span a distance as narrow as a few yards to as wide as a couple of miles. The
widest tornado on record was two and a half miles wide in the May 3rd, 1999 Oklahoma
outbreak. Wind speeds have reached as high as 315 miles per hour, as was recorded in a 2004
Nebraska tornado. Tornadoes occur most often in the central U.S. in an area traditionally
classified as “tornado alley” (Figure 2). However, there have been more tornadoes occurring in
areas to the east, challenging previously held perceptions of where the higher risk of tornadoes is
centered (Concannon, Brooks & Doswell, 2000). Concannon, Brooks & Doswell (2000)
reviewed data on tornadoes to evaluate the risk across the U.S., and found that the frequency
forms an “L” shape extending up to the Dakotas, down to Oklahoma and across to Georgia.
Based on these results, it has become common practice to accept this more modern description of
the activity of the tornadoes across the U.S. Boruff et al (2003) looked at all tornado events from
1950 – 2010 and also found a shift in the alley to the south and east (Figure 3). Boruff et. al.
Figure 2. Traditional tornado alley (Source Keli Tarp, National Weather Service, 2001).
6
(2003) also showed that the increase in damages due to tornadoes in the recent years reflects the
increase in population in the areas of higher tornado risk. This follows the new alleys as they
tend to be in higher populated areas. Demonstrated by the most recent activity in 2011,
tornadoes have failed to follow or remain within the boundaries of the traditional alley. Without
the accessibility to long term data, spanning hundreds of years, we cannot make specific
conclusions regarding pattern changes or typical weather patterns across the U.S. Brooks,
Doswell & Kay (2003) reviewed data on daily tornado activity in the U.S. and found the
probability of daily tornadoes is higher than initially understood. In this study they isolated
tornadic activity, excluding severe thunderstorms. Excluding the thunderstorm data had not been
done before. By doing so the data was specific to tornadoes providing a clearer picture of
tornado behavior. More importantly, in this study they were able to show that as the season
progresses, the activity shifts to the north and east. The results of these studies should increase
Figure 3. Modern tornado alleys (Source, Michael Frates, University of Akron).
7
awareness for the emergency management administrators in the north and to the east to assess
their risks differently as the tornado season proceeds.
Aquirre, et al. (1993) demonstrated that counties with high numbers of previous
tornadoes have a higher probability of tornado occurrences. This was also established by Donner
2007), stating that “most tornadoes occur within twenty-five miles of previously occurring
events.” These two results support findings by Graves and Brensock (1985) who reported that
tornadoes are not random hazards, and in fact, we should prepare for subsequent events
immediately after a tornado occurs. Data from 1998, 1999 and 2003 found at the National
Climatology Data Center (NCDC) and the news releases of the Oklahoma outbreaks from the
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), support the results of Graves and Brensock’s
(1985) studies. In those years, Oklahoma saw events that took 36 lives and damaged property to
a sum of over $1.4 billion combined. Lives were saved after the first two storms due to the
community’s action to mitigate potential future and subsequent threats. It is not the geographic
factor of tornadoes we need to concern ourselves, but also the time of day.
The period between late spring and early fall has been identified as the tornado season.
However, tornadoes will occur all year depending on weather and conditions. As the seasons
progress, the weather patterns change, and the tornado threat geographically moves north and
east (Concannon, Brooks & Doswell 2000). For most people it is understood that during the
course of the day, tornadoes occur more frequently in the afternoons and evenings. Even though
data shows tornadoes occur more frequently during the evening hours, nighttime or nocturnal
tornadoes are of eminent risk. Nocturnal tornadoes have the highest risk of casualties due to the
inability of spotters to adequately recognize a tornado and because of the slow reaction time of a
8
sleeping community. This type is more prevalent in the southern and eastern states where
understanding and awareness of tornado risks are lacking (Concannon, Brooks & Doswell 2000).
Nocturnal Events
Nocturnal tornadoes are hard to spot, and due to the vulnerability of a sleeping
population, account for almost 40 percent of all fatalities (Ashley, Kremenic & Schwantes,
2008). Ashley, Kremenic & Schwantes (2008) analyzed tornado vulnerability and found that
nocturnal events are two and half times more deadly than daytime tornadoes. Even though
nocturnal tornadoes only account for a quarter of all tornadoes, they result in a high percentage
of deaths (Ashley, 2007). More importantly, the common meteorological tornadic theories used
for all tornadoes may not be accurate for nocturnal tornadoes; this area needs more study and
attention to the entire range of meteorological and environmental variables (Kis & Straka, 2010).
Ashley (2007) and Ashley, Kremenic & Schwantes (2008) also found that the south is more
likely to have nocturnal tornadoes than the upper Midwest. Davies and Fischer (2009) provided
the meteorological explanation for that conclusion, it simply takes more energy due to differing
forces in the layers of the atmosphere in the north to overcome inhibiting factors that do not exist
in the southern air masses. This is mostly a result of the jet stream and how the drier air flows
from the west and does not track to the south but rather into the upper Midwest. Exactly why the
nocturnal tornado death rate is higher is not fully understood, but may be due to a lack of
awareness by the communities where they occurred and because verification methods are
difficult at night, resulting in individuals not seeking proper shelter or receiving adequate
warnings. This area needs to be explored more deeply.
9
Damages
From 1950 to 2011, tornadoes caused over $21 trillion in damages. This figure does not
account for inflation (NCDC, 2011). Reviewing the data from the 1950s to 1999, Brooks and
Doswell (2000) evaluated the reasons for increased damage, and found that wealth and more
abundant accumulation of goods were the cause for the increases in damage, which was later
supported in further research by Brooks (2006). Frequently we see articles and presenters stating
that weather is become more severe and frequently. Unfortunately that data is not there to
support those claims (Schiermeier, 2012). Tornadoes are not necessarily causing more damage
due to their increased number or intensity, rather as a country we have more possessions (cars
per household, boats, real estate, and other personal assets) to damage when tornadoes come into
contact with our communities. Insured values have gone up even more, to almost double the
losses officially reported by government agencies (Changnon, 2009). The reason for the
variance in numbers is that governmental figures are estimates, whereas actual insured losses are
calculated based on real loss values reported or paid. Changnon et al. (2000) echoed the prior
study result. They cite two factors for increased losses: increasing population growth
(demographic shifts where people are moving to areas of high risk), and increasing urbanization
and wealth. All these losses are replaceable, but injuries and loss of lives are more significant
and have other implications to our communities.
Casualties
According to the NOAA, tornadoes have killed approximately 5,600 people in the U.S.
since 1950, 90 people per year on average from 1950-2011 (Table 1). The number of people
killed in any given year ranges from a low of 15 to a high of 580. The range is staggering, and
should heighten our awareness of the risk tornadoes present as an unpredictable event, due to
10
their frequent and regular occurrences. Similar figures reported in a 23 year period from 1975 to
1998, showed 58 annual deaths due to tornadoes (Mitchell & Thomas, 2001). In 2010 and 2011,
the recorded tornado related deaths show the total has surpassed all prior decades going back to
1950. The data shows injuries surpass those in the same recorded periods. If the trend holds
true, the total number of recorded tornadoes could easily pass the previous sixty year record, but
more importantly continue the trend of increasing observed and recorded occurrences across the
U.S.
A reasonable prediction of tornado outcomes is that the bigger the tornado, the greater the
casualties. Donner (2007) demonstrated in a study that in fact this may be the case in
relationship to area covered, not size of the tornado itself. The larger the area covered by the
tornado, the greater the number of deaths. Brooks and Doswell (2002) suggest that what seems
like a large number of deaths today (e.g. the 1999 Oklahoma tornado event) would have been a
common or normal number of deaths in the 1920s, which shows that our acceptable level, or
expected death toll, has been reduced.
The violent nature of tornadoes causes injuries due to debris, and the failure of structures
and vegetation. Most injuries occur when the tornado reaches significant enhanced Fujita rating
Table 1
Total number of tornadoes occurring per 10 year period.
Year
Tornados
Deaths
Injuries
1950-59
5232
1419
14469
1960-69
7305
942
17265
1970-79
9362
997
21567
1980-89
9003
517
11237
1990-99
12061
586
11392
2000-09
13893
557
8214
2010-11
3141
580
5991
11
levels of EF3 or higher (Table 2). In a 20 year period from 1975 to 1994, approximately 23,000
people were injured (Mileti, 1999). Data from NCDC (2011) shows total injuries due to
tornadoes at 90,000 since 1950, and 1,400 annually. When considered annually, tornadoes are
periodically occurring events with injuries routinely exceeding any other natural hazard in the
U.S. Little research has been conducted on injuries alone, and most of that research focuses
specifically on deaths. The lack of specific injury research is because what causes injuries is also
the main cause of deaths, debris. The most common cause of deaths and injuries is due to soft
tissue impacts from flying debris termed missiles or projectiles (Carter, Millson & Allen, 1989,
Bohonos & Hogan, 1999). It has also been noted that deaths and injuries can occur from people
themselves “flying” (Legates & Biddle, 1999) into solid objects (Carter, Millson, and Allen,
1989). Comparably deaths have a greater emotional impact. Although injuries don’t rise to the
same emotional level as a death, they have significant consequences unseen during the recovery
periods. Although injuries and deaths occur in the same manner during tornadoes, injuries occur
more frequently, reducing productivity and recovery capabilities in the aftermath increasing
health costs. The result is that the high number of annual injuries increases the cost of tornadoes,
yet injuries are not reviewed specifically in the literature nor typically calculated.
Table 2
Enhanced Fujita scale.
Scale
Wind Speed (mph)
EF0
65-85
EF1
86-110
EF2
111-135
EF3
136-165
EF4
166-200
EF5
>200
(Source NOAA Storm Prediction Center)
Possible Damage
branches broken
mobile home pushed off foundation
strong built homes unroofed
trains overturned
houses leveled
automobile sized missiles generated
12
Several studies have tried to identify factors that are correlated to deaths and injuries.
Each of these studies identified similar variables. Age (70+ years) for example seems to be one
factor, depending on the study and location of the tornado (Cater, Millson, & Allen, 1989,
Hanson, Vitek, Hanson, 1979). The devastating effects are evident when debris becomes
enveloped in a tornado. Small items as well as larger ones can travel at incredible speed and on
impact the projectiles can penetrate brick walls increasing the potential for fatalities (Figure 4).
Structures or large trees falling on people are equally deadly. Schmidlin (2009) identified 407
deaths across the U.S. in a 12 year period ranging from 1995 to 2007 due to wind related tree
failures. Of interest in this study, which included both tornadoes and cyclones, the largest
number of fatalities occurred inside homes, followed by those in vehicles, then those occurring
outside. The range over all three locations was 42 to 25 percent, which shows little variation or
that one is substantially at higher risk indoors or outdoors comparatively. It seems however that
trees have a deadly effect in all locations, which may be counterintuitive. Safety concerns
Figure 4. Projectile penetrating tire (Source NOAA, 2012 ).
13
should be considered for lot size tree placement as well as boulevard and highway tree size, set
back, and placement.
During the 1999 tornado event in Oklahoma the most common injury was soft tissue
damage (Brown, Archer, Kruger & Mallonee, 2002). Although most of the injuries and deaths
were directly due to the event itself, others occurred during the preparation and clean up.
Interestingly enough, some records do not separate out cause of deaths where others do. The
argument is that the tornado must be the direct cause of death. However, if the tornado had not
occurred, additional deaths would not have resulted, thus they should be included in the total
deaths related to the tornado. In the Brown, et al (2002) study, it was determined that 30 percent
of the individuals who died were in recommended safe areas during tornadoes. Location within
a building seemed to be a factor as to whether an individual sustained a simple injury or fatal
injury. Basements and interior rooms were the second best location only to an approved storm
shelter. Vehicles are a hazardous place to shelter, as they provide no protection from debris, and
they can become debris (Cater, Millson, & Allen, 1989). However, Hammer and Schmidlin et
al. (2002) pointed out that during the May 1999 Oklahoma event many people fled the storm’s
path in vehicles, and none died as a result of evacuating in this manner. This event had a long
lead time, and residents could put considerable distance between themselves and the path of the
tornado. These results are not typical, and should not be taken as evidence that being in a vehicle
is safe. Farley (2007) reviewed many tornado related damages and injuries, and sought to
understand the safety behind advising people to shelter in ditches or in cars. His overall
evaluation depends on the geographical location. If you live in the open prairie and you can see
the tornado, determine the track’s direction, and have ample time to get out of the way, you
should drive in a car to safety. However, if you live in the eastern part of the U.S., you may not
14
see the tornado nor do you have straight roads that travel in one direction. A better choice in this
case is to abandon the vehicle, distance yourself from the vehicle, and lie in a low level area or
seek shelter in a solid structure. More notable is research by Schmidlin, et al, (2002) who
studied the safety of vehicles compared to mobile homes during tornadoes. They discovered that
in most cases the vehicle was safer than originally thought. Vehicles sit low to the ground, and
have few surfaces for the winds to act upon, leaving them in some cases virtually untouched.
When it comes to significant tornadoes (EF-4 and higher), no place is safer than a shelter.
Although emergency managers and safety experts do not advise seeking shelter in vehicles,
mobile home residents should seek shelter via evacuation by vehicle.
Housing Types
The type of housing occupied during a tornado can potentially increase the probability of
injuries and deaths. Mobile homes are particularly vulnerable during a tornado (Ashley, 2007,
Chaney & Weaver, 2010, Sutter & Simmons, 2010, Mcpeak & Ertas, 2012). In these recent
studies, a disproportionate number of deaths are occurring in the southeast. Most of these
victums are residents of mobile homes (48 percent). More importantly, the deaths are due to low
Fujita rated tornadoes occurring at night (Sutter & Simmons, 2010, Ashley, Kremenec, &
Schwantes, 2008). Sutter and Simmons (2010) showed that fatality rates are ten times higher for
those in mobile homes. Lower intensity events (EF1-3) kill more mobile home residents than
those in permanent structures. Occupants of permanent housing are killed during higher level
(EF4-5) tornadoes. However, there are by far more low intensity tornadoes, which present
mobile home residents with a higher potential for death and injuries.
As stated earlier, tornadoes are the number one natural hazard in the U.S. when you look
at the annual injuries and deaths. Some areas of the U.S. have greater meteorological probability
15
for occurrences of tornadoes and some have unique societal vulnerabilities with respect to
injuries and deaths. Historically, the U.S. has dealt with many tornadoes and in our most recent
history, has made improvements and advancements in our abilities to address the rapid onset,
low probability, high consequence, but frequent natural hazard. Contradicting data on vehicle
use should be noted as well as mobile home vulnerability. Injury impacts should be explored
more thoroughly to better quantify the impacts economically and behaviorally. To address
education and community understanding better the emergency manager should have a
heightened awareness of specific hazards in their jurisdiction.
16
CHAPTER 3. PREDICTIONS
Unlike run-up floods, hurricanes, droughts or volcanic activity, a tornado is an event that
develops and is over in a split second. Meteorologists attempt to anticipate tornadoes by
examining weather patterns and radar, but in reality tornadoes provide few visible or obvious
clues to clearly predict their occurrence based on the energy in the atmosphere (NOAA, 2011).
To study a tornado, one has to be in the right place at the right time. Teams of storm chasers
with equipment follow storms hoping for that one chance to witness and collect data on an actual
tornado. Unlike fluid dynamics and material testing, you cannot recreate a tornado in a lab,
which makes accurate data collection difficult.
History
Over the years tornado studies have helped us identify the true nature of tornadoes, such
as track length and intensity correlations (Schaefer, Schneider and Kay, 2002). Since the advent
of radar in 1948, and its subsequent first time use forecasting a warning by the Air Force in
Oklahoma, forecasting storms has improved. In 1953 at Willard Air Force Base in Illinois, the
first recognizable hook pattern associated with tornadoes was observed, giving forecasters an
edge in predicting tornadoes (Whiton, Smith, Bigler, Wilk & Harbuck, 1998) (Figure 5).
Figure 5. Hook pattern in radar echo (Source Wunderground, Jeff Masters)
17
Yet radar use for detection of these storms has limits. It has to have some mass or object to
reflect a signal back. Clouds have moisture, droplets of rain or ice which reflect the radar signal.
Strong wind occurrences do not reflect radar waves unless they include debris such as dust or
moisture. As with strong wind events, tornadoes are usually observed on radar by the reflectivity
of debris and moisture contained in them. However, by the time a tornado is detected using
these techniques, it is generally too late to broadcast effective warnings and are only effective to
downstream communities.
Since the early 1980s there has been an increase in tornado reports. Although more
tornadoes are being reported, that does not necessarily mean more tornadoes are occurring. It is
possible that the increased ability to detect and identify storms accounts for the apparently higher
numbers. The increase has several causes: the advancement of more sophisticated radar, the
population expansion into rural areas, and the ability to recognize the signs and characteristics of
tornadoes (Verbout, Brooks, Leslie, & Schultz, 2006). The number of reported tornadoes
annually in the U.S. has increased to more than double compared to reports sixty years ago
(NCDC, 2011).
When the data is reviewed, we see that the increases are mainly in lower level
events (EF0-1) (Verbout, Brooks, Leslie, & Schultz, 2005, Schaffer, Schneider, Kay, 2002).
However, urban sprawl and rural development increases the probability of a tornado impacting
property and lives (Brooks & Doswell, 2000, Aquirre, Saenx, Edmiston, Yang, Agramonte &
Stuart, 1993). Not only that, but it also increased the probability of detection. We have seen that
the increases are not just due to weather patterns changing but rather we know now that the
methods of tracking, observing and the expansion of the population will impact how we forecast
and prepare for such events.
18
Forecast
Tornado predictions have become routine for most parts of the U.S. Until recently, these
were typically a warning for an entire county or larger region, leaving many wondering about the
reason for issuing a warning, a potential cry wolf scenario. Not only was the warning nonspecific but there was no indication of probability. In the later part of the 2000s the Storm
Prediction Center (SPC) developed and provided a probability factor for each potential tornado
in a well defined warning area rather than suggesting only that a tornado may occur in that
general area (Vescio & Thompson, 2001). This research showed that accurately predicting the
probability was difficult. The probability of intensity was predicted at a lower level than the
actual event. In time, an increased understanding of tornadoes as a whole improved the forecast.
Research by Dotzek, Grieser & Brooks (2003) brought both the European and U.S.
meteorological communities together to formulate intensity distributions. The study provided a
method and formula to predict intensity more accurately. They were able to show that using the
lower end and a negative EF scale including 0 wind speed allows for improved sensitivity of the
lower and upper level of tornado predictions. In addition, this new scaling and distribution of
scale fit existing predictions in the databases making predictions more accurate. This is critical
because those areas that have few but violent or frequent lower intensity tornadoes can use this
formula to facilitate preparing a more accurate picture of their risk and vulnerability.
More recent research on the interaction of near surface vortex and frontal boundaries and
supercells are revealing oddities in tornadoes that were not previously understood, such as corner
flow collapse where low intensity storms can create intense storms that brew from the near
surface level (Lewellen & Lewellen, 2007). In theory, most storms advance along a boundary
that pulls moist air from the Gulf of Mexico into the jet stream, and mixes with cool air from the
19
northwest along with dry hot air from the southwest. However, there have been cases (e.g.
Oklahoma, 1995), where tornadoes advance to a front, retreat into the cold air mass and then
draw in the southern front, causing the storm to back track to its origin (Blanchard, 2008).
Multivortex tornadoes present greater risk due to the increased wind loads on the right side of the
path, as the outer vortices accelerate the debris on the outer sides. The probability of being hit by
the outer vortices has been calculated. Through these calculations it was shown that with
multivoritces the initial path may not be the highest risk. In reality the outer path of the parent
tornado may, in fact be at higher risk for impact and damage (Twisdale & Dunn, 1983, McPeak
& Ertas, 2012) (Figure 6). A basic calculation is as follows; 30 mph tornado track, outer vortices
rotating at 10mph around the center of the event, along the right side it now is travelling at a
speed of 40 mph. So if the outer vortices had a rotationally speed (not track speed) of 170 mph,
as it travels around the center on the right side the wind speeds are now at 210 mph. This is
significantly faster than the left side and may mislead the observer as to where the true center of
the event had occurred based on wind damage.
Figure 6. Multiple vortices (Source Fujita 1971).
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The use of mobile Doppler units expanded the growing body of knowledge of tornadic
wind speeds aloft and on the ground (Wurman & Gill, 2000). The technologies such as
Enhanced Resolution Radar or polarimetric radar, has been tested to improve radar resolution to
view tornadic vortices (Brown, Wood & Sirmans, 2002, Palmer et al., 2011). Polarimetric radar
is a method that, similar to regular Doppler provides both lateral and vertical scan views. This
method has shown to be highly accurate in measuring inflow debris, giving meteorologists an
advantage in identifying tornadoes (Ryzhkov, Schuur, Burgess & Zrnic, (2005). Specific
tornadoes were studied using mobile radar Doppler readings which provided insight into their
multiple vortices and tornadogensis. Using that data, researchers were also able to superimpose
photographic evidence along with surveyed damage data from meteorological data sets which
proved to be valuable. These results provided clues into the oddities of tornadic paths and
generation, such as the strong right side wind patterns leading observers to believe the tornado
was actually further to the right of the actual vortex center ( Bluestein, Lee, Bell, Weiss &
Pazmany, 2003, Bluestein, Weiss & Pazmany, 2003, Speheger, Doswell & Stumpf, 2002,
Wakimoto, Murphey, Dowell & Bleustein, 2003). Research confirms the ability of satellite
imagery to indentify tornado events down to an EF-1 in rural areas, due to denuded vegetation
(Yaun, Dickins-Micozzi & Magsig, 2002). These studies, along with newer methods to view
meteorological events, will greatly improve the ability to prepare for tornadoes (Casati et al,
2008).
As we have moved further into technology we have improved forecasting and awareness.
With these bases we should be able to begin to make meaningful advances in preparedness and
mitigation activities. Continuous advancement in our basic understanding of the basics and
details of tornadoes can only lead us into a safer environment for our communities.
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CHAPTER 4. PREPAREDNESS
In preparation for a storm, back stage activities such as forecasting and storm chasing are
occurring but not recognized by the casual community member. One of these activities is the
meteorological monitoring of storms and weather in order to provide adequate watches and
warnings. Many weather enthusiasts watch and provide information on cloud formations and onsite weather readings, such as wind speed, direction and barometric pressure. More importantly,
the public behavioral response to warnings to shelter or evacuate is based on their knowledge
and understanding of this information. It is their response to warnings that based on those
assisting NOAA that will have a significant impact on safety. Response is based on the
perception of risk and what can be reasonably understood about safety or the hazard.
Understanding the language and terminology used by the scientific community such as
meteorologist, that improves risk perception. Warnings and watches are the two most significant
terms to be understood but the research conclusions that shed insightful rays of light on the
matter.
Warnings and Watches
Tornado warnings have been identified as a method to reduce injuries and deaths since
the turn of the 19th century (Finley, 1884, Bradford, 1999, Corfidi, 1999, Galway, 1985). The
first warnings given by the U.S. Army signal corp. were to protect commerce (Bradford, 1999,
Corfidi, 1999, Galway, 1985). The original system used in 1883 to notify the public was
developed by Edward Holden using the existing telegraph infrastructure (Coleman & Pence,
2009,). A national warning system was initially proposed in 1883 but the government did not
want warnings passed on to the public because it was feared the word “tornado” would cause
more harm and panic (Corfidi, 1999). It was not until the mid 1900s that the government lifted
22
the ban on warnings to the public about pending violent storms (Coleman, Knupp, Spann, Elliot,
& Peters, 2011). Modern warning systems would not have been possible without the
advancements in technology with the telegraph system and later radar development. Due to the
technology advancement of NOAA’s ability to recognize and detect potentially violent storms,
NOAA has improved warnings up to thirty minutes in advance of a tornado. The advent and
implementation of Doppler radar in the 1990s increased warning periods significantly, resulting
in reductions of casualties due to tornadoes (Simmons and Sutter, 2005). More recent progress
in radar shows promising improvements in identifying threatening weather patterns. These may
improve warning time beyond the typical thirteen minute time frame. However, the increase in
lead time, some research has shown, does not always result in a reduction in injuries and deaths
(Simmons & Sutter, 2008a).
Since the 1980s, tornado forecasting has improved, but it is not clear what caused the
reduction in injuries (Brooks, 2004, Glahn, 2005). The question is was it from warning times or
improved awareness by the community? The WSR-88D radar system commonly known as
Doppler, showed initial gains in probability of detection of at least 15 percent which was further
increased once the system was in full operation with trained meteorologists (Bieringer & Ray,
1996). Glahn (2005) admits and echoes Brooks’ (2004) conclusions that without the
technological advancements implemented in the 1990s, agencies would be less likely to have
improved forecasting to the level they do today. Although these warnings have often been
broadcast at approximately 30 minutes or more ahead of storms, some warnings only occur as
the storm arrives and sometimes not at all. The average warning time is 11 minutes (Simmons &
Sutter, 2008a) or up to 13 minutes, depending on the research (Brotzge & Erickson, 2009). The
amount of lead time varies with the accuracy of Doppler radar and the level of education and
23
advanced training within NOAA who provides the warning. In a recent study, lead time has
been shown to reduce injuries and fatalities by over 40 percent (Simmons & Sutter, 2008a). This
is significant and still may be argued was the impudence of reducing deaths.
In 1990 Hales (1990) looked at the critical role the tornado watch played in producing a
warning for significant tornadoes. He suggested that meteorologists should rely on atmospheric
clues and not exclusively on sightings is contrary to the push to implement spotter programs.
His study concluded that the data was more accurate if the software was able to produce the
warning. However increases should be made in the overall number of spotter networks.
Doswell, Moller & Brooks (1999) looked into the decrease in deaths in the 1950s and they
concluded that the reduction is attributed largely to the improvement of the publics tornado
knowledge, awareness of determining a sighting and the role as spotters. Furthermore, the
improvement in the 1980s in accuracy of tornado watches comes with improvements in training
spotters (Moller, 1978). Increased and heightened involvement in the spotter program can be
achieved by using a framework of spotters’ perceived risk and conceptualized spotting activities
(Reibestein, 2008). Overall, the ability to provide watches that activate highly trained spotters
will improve the warning capabilities of NOAA, resulting in improved accuracy and reduced
deaths and injuries. The opposite is seen in Canada, where spotters in rural areas are not
available. In this situation, rural tornadoes and any subsequent warnings are less accurate and
most tornadoes go undetected because there is less radars, fewer spotters and more rural (Durage,
Wirasinghe & Ruwanpura, 2012). Accuracy of warnings is important to reduce death and
injuries, and for the public’s confidence in the system to make better choices for safety.
An increase in warning lead time and the reduction in fatalities cannot be directly
correlated. Depending on the research, the results are mixed. According to Donner (2007) lead
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time has a positive effect on fatalities, but with lead times longer than 28 minutes, fatalities
increase. Simmons and Sutter (2008a) show that lead times over 17 minutes were associated
with a rise in deaths. This is counter intuitive. Longer lead times should provide residents more
time to evacuate and seek shelter knowing a violent storm is approaching. However, longer lead
time may leave residents wondering if a storm is really coming and may lead them to satisfy
their curiosity by going outside or to windows to see or assess for themselves the risks and
observable weather (Drabek & Stevenson, 1971). Perhaps over time the public will have more
confidence in the credibility and urgency of warnings and heed them accordingly.
In some cases there is no lead time for a tornado, or even a negative lead time when the
warning is simultaneous with the storm. Brotzge & Erickson (2009) outlined several findings in
zero and negative lead times. Studies suggested that the first storm of the day will more than
likely have less warning or lead time than storms that occur later in the day. The month of May
had a significantly lower lead time average compared to the rest of the calendar months. A
discovery in this same study by Brotzge & Erickson, (2009) found that the more storms that
occurred in the same day increased lead time significantly. This suggests that as the forecasters
are following many storms, they are more aware of the potential for future storms and more
confident in meteorological clues of impending violent storms.
Interestingly, zero or negative lead times for tornadoes greater than EF-2, only account
for 8.5 percent of all fatalities. In following work of their earlier study, Brotzge and Erickson
(2010) found that the westernmost states had a higher percentage of events occurring without
warnings; January had fewer warnings, and May had the most tornado events and the least
warned events. Most interesting is that in areas of higher population, tornadoes with no warning
also increased. It would seem that rural areas may get more warnings than areas with higher
25
populations. This result does not hold in the higher (EF2-EF4) rated tornadic events. In the
conclusion of Brotzge and Erickson’s (2010) article, they showed that the longer the track, the
higher the probability of a warning. Also, the distance from tornado to radar site had little effect
on lead time, but had a significant effect on whether a warning was issued. Of note is that the
greater the distance, the less likely a warning and concluded that there were more tornadoes the
closer you were to a radar site. According to further research however, tornadoes do not occur
more often near radar sites or nearer to higher density areas (Ray, Bieringer, Niu and Whisel,
2003) contradicting the prior results.
Many challenges have been researched by scientists that have and will result in
improvements to tornado predictions and warnings. Examples include, improvements in spotter
networks and radar scanning abilities beyond the current radar systems’ capabilities. Current
discussion includes making the NWS fully automated and eliminating forecasters. It has been
argued that the automated system will remove the biases and uncertainty of the human factor.
This would potentially also eliminate the error seen in the first months of tornadoes and in the
first storm occurrences within a day (Lakshmanan, Smith, Stumpf & Hondl, 2007). The
usefulness of the automated system has been argued by forecasters. Forecasters suggest the
relevant local experience of geography, vegetation and topography will be lost as well as and
also the human gut feeling of a storm. However unpopular the decision to replace the forecaster,
cost reduction for the agency may be the big factor and the data supports the claim that the rate
of false alarms will improve if fully automated.
False Alarms
As part of the warning system it can be reasonably expected that some false alarms will
be issued along with accurate predictions and warnings. The NWS has a false alarm rate that is
26
acceptable at 70 percent (Brotzge, Erickson & Brooks, 2011). A false alarm is one where a
warning was issued, but the event could not be verified and never occurred. These false alarms
are the ratio of potential tornadoes to actually occurring tornadoes. However, as noted above the
false alarm rate could be impacted by the fact that there are 60 percent more tornadoes occurring
than reported (Ray, Bieringer, Niu, & Whissel, 2003). Findings suggest that most research on
false alarm rates does not take this into account and thus, the findings may be skewed. False
alarms affect the public’s confidence in the warnings (Simmons & Sutter, 2009, Donner,
Rodriguez & Diaz, 2007). After many false alarms a community can develop a normalcy bias
(Donner, Rodriguez & Diaz, 2007). A normalcy bias is where a recurring event does not elicit
the desired response, but rather will be part of the norm in society, desensitizing the public.
Donner, Rodriguez & Diaz (2007) noted that education is a key component of the false alarm
societal problem. They suggested that the lack of knowledge by the public in distinguishing
between watches, warnings, and false alarms go unrecognized by those giving this information.
The public tends to confuse these, and consequently over estimates the amount of false alarms.
This may have an effect on the compliance of the public with warnings and watches. Simmons
and Sutter (2009) suggested that the areas with higher rates of false alarms are at higher risk of
fatalities than those with a lower ratio of false alarms and probability of detection. It was also
concluded that the higher the rate of false alarms produced a higher rate of casualty. Barnes,
Gruntfest, Hayden, Schultz & Benight (2007) reviewed literature on this topic and determined
that although research on false alarms did lead to complacency in traditional settings, research
labs testing the “cry wolf syndrome”, in the case of natural hazards, did not. It was found that
when information on hazards is supported through several sources that are credible, the
perception of risk increases, which leads to action for safety.
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Although false alarms can effect decisions, an individual’s behaviors and actions are
based on several factors as they react to pending storms. Dash and Gladwin (2007) noted that
warnings themselves do not elicit a response; individuals must perceive the risk. Demographics
will also dictate how one perceives risks, as well as prior experiences with hazards. The
increased risk perception is key in the decision making process in that this perception will have a
greater effect on our response than just hearing a warning. A potential research question is, are
false alarms creating a higher rate of casualties because of a need to confirm tornados by the
public? There are negative impacts to false alarms no matter which side of the research you are
on. One of these is time spent on false alarm warnings for tornadoes alone, costing the U.S.
approximately $2.7 billion a year for communities reacting to the warnings (Erickson, 2006,
Sutter & Erickson, 2010). Although this seems immense, the cost of not warning may be greater
in lives, injuries and property damage.
Societal Behavior
A community’s collective memory is essential when it comes to how it will perceive, and
thus react to a hazard (Concannon, Brooks and Doswell, 2002, Comstock & Mallanee, 2005).
When communities have a memory of hazards over generations it solidifies the attitudes and
understanding of the risks. Hanson, Vitek and Hanson (1979) reported that according to prior
research reviewed, prior exposure was significant in how individuals respond to tornado
warnings. They discovered that exposure and how the previous events affected the individual
personally contributed to a person’s ability to evaluate the danger. In one study, those who
remembered the 1953 Flint Michigan Tornado recognized the threat of tornadoes better than
those who had not been impacted or who did not remember the event. Just like that generation
that lived through the great depression, who learned to save and be thrifty. The same can be said
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about disaster, people move out of harm’s way through preparedness and other means. Although
memory can be a powerful force, there are other factors that influence behavior.
Are there factors other than prior memory that will drive residents to shelter? Research has
shown that there are many factors that will cause people to shelter including having two sources
for the warning, hearing it on TV and hearing warning sirens. Balluz (2002) showed that one
quarter of the respondents to his study sheltered because of four predominant factors. If
respondents had a basement, had an existing household sheltering plan in place, heard a siren and
were a graduate of high school, then they sought shelter within five minutes of hearing the
warning. Bullaz (2002) concluded that preparedness through devising a plan to shelter and
exercising the plan as a household has the greatest impact if emphasized by emergency
managers. Emergency managers tend to emphasis the training and exercising in our municipal
preparedness but less is spent on individual preparedness. This may be because inserting
basements or increasing the student graduation rates may be difficult and out of the control of the
emergency management discipline. However, emergency managers can do a better job at
educating and emphasizing planning on a household level. A whole set of literature is devoted to
the societal aspects of improving our communities. Topics dealing with economics, housing,
education and health that is far outside of the purview of the emergency manager’s capabilities.
However, the way data is presented will improve perception of risk. Yamagishi (1997)
conducted a study to determine whether risk would be perceived differently pending the way it is
presented. What he concluded is that if the subject is presented with a hazard and a specific
number such as 1,242 out of 10,000 the subject would perceive that as riskier than a higher
percentage. In the end people will overestimate risk or payoffs such as those who gamble. The
payoff is greater and thus they anchor to that high payoff rather than the cost. In hazard risk
29
perception people will see the risk as the anchoring point and this may be due to the deep
impacts it has on each person.
Durkheim’s classical theory of “anomie” is based in the subject’s trigger of a bad event
such as divorce or unemployment resulting in a sense of hopelessness (Boholm, 1998). Based
partly on this theory Boholm (1998) reviewed literature and found in the studies he reviewed that
if one has to struggle on a daily basis that factor was correlated with increased risk perception.
One of the key factors was poverty. As wealth increases in a household the risk for lose is
lessened. This significantly alters ones perception of risk overall. Potentially those with less
money feel they have less control or fewer resources to protect their assets and safety. Hanson
Vitek & Hanson (1979) conducted studies to evaluate the question of how self control influenced
the ability to protect themselves in hazards. Their results concluded that those who felt in
control of the circumstances and outcomes had more positive response patterns than those who
felt they had no control. Seeking shelter is a learned behavior based on an understanding of the
risks. However, despite the depth of understanding risks, not everyone feels control over the
situation or what happens in their lives. Bohona and Hogan (1999) indicated that an attitude of
fatalism increases the risk of injury, failure to seek adequate shelter, or act on warnings. Mulilis
and Duval (1997) supported the Bohona and Hogan’s 1999 study reiterating self determination.
Mulilis and Duval (1997) reported that people who felt control over their preparedness
capabilities planned better than those who felt little control, for which they relied on external
resources or agencies for preparedness. On those same lines Siegrist and Cvkovich (2000)
conducted research that identified that most will rely on social trust to make the judgment of risk
when their knowledge and ability to process the information is low. While reviewing the factors
in these reviews it was easy to see that those in lower economic situations, in poverty, had less
30
education and having to rely on others will increase their perception of risk which can be easily
influenced if the data is presented accordingly.
Research that evaluated the different coping styles between the northern U.S. states and
the southern states supports the previous studies. In the Sims and Baumann (1972) study
Southerners were more likely to leave the outcomes up to fate, declaring that no matter the
preparation, fate will prevail. Southerners felt the event was between themselves and nature, and
their confidence as participants in disasters was nonexistent. Contrary to this train of thought,
the Northerner’s response to the survey demonstrated their autonomy and responsibility for
directing their own preparedness. A follow up question is to determine if, in fact Northerners are
more prepared, in such he self report being prepared, but are they prepared for all hazards etc.
Mobile home residents were surveyed to assess their tornado shelter seeking behavior,
and it was found they did not seek adequate shelter when warnings were provided, with more
than half failing to do so (Schmidlin, Hammer, Ono and King, 2009). To put this into
perspective, the South contains more mobile homes than in the North, not only in parks, but also
spread out in rural communities. The Schmidlin, Hammer, Ono, King (2009) study reports that
although mobile home residents had options none were good options for shelter. More
importantly, the adequate options available, to mobile home residents, such as permanent homes
within 200 meters, were underutilized. Mobile home parks are infrequently equipped with
shelters; only 33 percent of all mobile home parks in the U.S. have shelters. Despite the number
of shelters in mobile home parks the rural manufactured/mobile homes have no shelters and
comprise a large segment of housing. Taken together the risk to mobile home residents is very
high. Without proper shelters in which to evacuate, mobile home residents have few options.
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Tornado warnings, as noted earlier originated by the telegraph system in 1883. Warnings
have evolved into the current system predominately by way of radio, television, public
announcements, or sirens and are administered by the NWS, news outlets and municipal
agencies. A recent study on a university campus by Sherman-Morris (2010) studied a midday
tornado event and observed that TV, albeit a less effective media than social media and cell
phones, was a highly utilized and trusted source for university residents and staff. Students
reported alerts were first received via cell phone, and faculty and other employees received alerts
via instant messaging on their computer. There has been an emphasis to use social media as a
source for emergency information, but that source alone will not be effective. People who were
surveyed in the 1999 tornado in Oklahoma took shelter following the warning on TV, but this
was not their only source of information (Hammer & Schmidlin, 2002). Hammer and
Schmidlin’s (2002) survey results support prior research by Sorensen (2000) and Sorensen and
Mileti (1988) that the residents in the May 1999 Oklahoma event had contact with friends and
neighbors in addition to the initial media sources for the warning. In these prior studies and
review of research alike, it has been suggested that people need more than one source of
information, or confirmation by reliable sources in order to react to the initial warnings. Current
results support past research and strengthen the case for multiple source warnings in emergency
management situations.
Overall preparedness for tornadoes needs to be explored in terms of getting the
information out to the public. We know it takes several sources to make the public react to the
warnings. We also know that false alarms are going to be problematic for emergency managers
trying to motivate their communities to action. If preparedness is proving to be challenging can
we handle the risks through mitigation?
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CHAPTER 5. MITIGATION
Successful mitigation practices can be categorized into two types, structural and
nonstructural. Nonstructural practices include storm spotters, sirens, radar, building code
regulations, policy and planning, and land use. Structural types include tying framing down to
foundations, retrofits, shelters and safe rooms. Both types of activities result in decreases in
damages and deaths. However, if residents don’t have access to these mitigated structures,
injuries and deaths will occur during a tornado. Resulting casualties can be reduced when
applications in modern building codes are implemented within communities publically and in the
private sectors (Glass & Noji, 1992).
A common mitigation method commonly used is to provide warnings with a siren system
administered by the municipality to ensure people are alerted. Lui, Quenemoen, Malilay, Noji,
Sinks & Mendlein (1996) found that residents that did not have a siren nearby or in their
community received the warning via radio or TV. This study showed that the use of sirens
resulted in a two-fold increase in warning notification to the residents. It stands to reason that
not everyone has a TV or radio on but a community siren will be one for everyone. Thus, those
who do not have sirens within the community are two times less likely to receive a tornado
warning via other sources. Sirens usually exist in higher density locations but not in rural
communities, which may put the rural communities at a disadvantage. Specific communities
have studied their needs for sirens and placement (Chaney, 2003) and noted that sirens serve not
only to warn of tornado hazards, but hazards of any nature (Current & O’Kelly, 1992). The
results echo and support an all hazards approach. It was also noted that the expense and overall
benefits to the population are considerations for proper placement of sirens.
33
Stimers (2006) also studied siren use and placement and concluded that initial placement
based on old standards may be inadequate. Utilization of improved assessment tools, like GIS,
can provide better placement. With GIS functions, one can input multiple variables such as
housing density, typical wind directions, vegetation, and siren height to help assess geographic
siren placement effectiveness saving money, time, and lives. Benefits from technology are
abundant; however, sometimes the benefits entail long term costs and unforeseen future risks.
For years the answer to flooding was damming rivers, however ecological damage is
irreplaceable. Our short term perceived risk, usually a reaction to a current hazard leaves us
blind to actual long term hazards.
For centuries, humans have devised ways to address consequences of hazards. In recent
history, the U.S. developed vaccines for viruses, saving lives and eradicating diseases in entire
countries or regions. Communities have dammed rivers and set channel walls to contain rising
waters, which preserved lives and property while controlling water resources for recreation and
commerce. Housing materials and building practices strengthened dwellings and gathering
places saving lives and reducing the impacts of minor intensity hazards. As humans we tend to
react to nature, not take proactive measures to what may come. Implementing long term
measures that are also cost effective reduces losses to life and property from violent hazards.
Long term planning is one method to ensure that communities stay vital but presents hurdles
along with demonstrated benefits.
Hazard mitigation efforts received a major boost in 2000 when the executive branch of
the U.S. government implemented the Disaster Mitigation Act (DMA). It requires that local
planning be proactive in order to be eligible for funding. According to the DMA requirements
each community has to have mitigation goals based on their local hazards. However, the public
34
and policy makers had difficulties admitting risks and approving actions that were meaningful
(Drabek & Hoetner, 1991). Implementation of any plan also encounters the hurdle of cost. The
benefits to incurring the cost are increased safety, and few towns have the chance to start anew
with complete business and residential support. To bring stakeholders together the hazards have
to be real, meaningful and of significant risk. Planning and policy outcomes will get minimal
traction if the risks of hazards don’t meet those factors of being meaningful and significant for
all.
Policy and Planning
Devising policies to mitigate disasters requires all stakeholders to be vested. These
policies may dictate planning. While we can all see the benefit of taking actions to mitigate the
hazards, not all plans and policies will directly impact saving lives and property especially in the
short term. Greensburg, Kansas, openly decided and implemented plans, after being completely
destroyed in 2007, which would lead to the city going completely “green” (Paul & Che, 2011).
Greensburg’s problems have been cost barriers in achieving LEED certifications, and retaining
residents and businesses in a community that had 95 percent of its residential and business
structures damaged (Figure 7). A continued effort is still required, along with economic
development (Paul & Che, 2011). Because the entire community was impacted, long term
planning is needed as the community continues to develop and plan. They will have to bring the
stakeholders together to discuss reviewing current actions and future plans to reduce hazards in
order to save lives and property in the future. The event in Greensburg is important as a less or
model for future communities to assess recovery and mitigation avenues proceeding disasters.
Focusing events are those that dramatically shift the political and sociological behavior
after a disaster (Birkland, 2006). Some events do not reach this magnitude, and thus the
35
resulting communities do not improve or advance. As Birkland (2006) defines focusing events,
it takes both the community and its administrators to feel that the event was rare, sudden and
could cause future harm to their geographic area. Birkland (2006) demonstrates that as far as
natural disasters go, earthquakes have generated not only local but also national change, whereas
hurricanes, at the time of this writing, have not. The current east coast “Hurricane Sandy” event
could change that. Tornadoes still have not reached the level of hurricanes and earthquakes at
the national level but continue to impact many local communities annually. It is because they
impact smaller areas they will more than likely achieve local rather than national change.
Planning for disasters benefits communities but also possess many problems. In the
planning process strengths and weaknesses can be found, and issues that might not have been
Figure 7. Greensburg Kansas damaged (Source FEMA, 2012
http://www.photolibrary.fema.gov/photodata/original/30066.jpg).
36
addressed or seen can be brought forward. New technology will be introduced, and it is
important to review plans often to make sure new ideas and inventions can be considered and are
relevant. However, these new technologies may not always be good. Historically, we have
produced products, like can liners for pop that are linked to increases in cancer rates. Better
construction materials and methods may lead to a false sense of security, encouraging
homeowners to live in hazardous areas (Burby et al 1999). The same idea was echoed by Burby
and Dalton (1994) that showed a reliance on building codes alone that give the consumer a false
sense of security leading them to occupy areas that are inherently unsafe. The mere idea that
hazards are mitigated by new technologies only increases our risk. The problem arises when we
build in hazardous areas where we mitigated the prior disasters, not the new ones. What
contributes to our failure to learn from our mistakes and experience as we continue administering
previous policies is the lack of consensus amongst stakeholders (White, 1996). The same can be
said on a local level.
According to other hazard literature, when local governments spend resources on
policies, mitigation and education, the risk is lowered and so are real damages during events
(Burby, French & Nelson, 1998). Do state mandated comprehensive plans incorporating natural
hazards have a positive effect on disaster losses? According to Burby (2005), the insured losses
for states that had comprehensive plans addressing natural hazards were significantly lower than
those that did not. If this study had been done across all states, Burby (2005) concluded there
would have been a significant reduction in losses for residential property over the period studied.
With total losses from tornadoes averaging more than most other hazards, a reduction in damage
losses through actions such as increased building codes to an EF-4 standard would have lessened
37
insured losses significantly. Planning for disasters theoretically is wise and it has been shown
practically to be penny wise as well.
Nelson and French (2002) demonstrated that high quality planning, especially in land use,
reduced damages to natural hazards, specifically demonstrating that high investment by local
governments in the mitigation process reaps benefits. Hall and Ashley (2008) studied the 1990
Plainfield, Illinois tornado event reviewing several scenarios as if they were to occur presently.
They discovered that, due to urban sprawl and increased personal wealth in just a ten year period,
a fifty percent increase in damages would occur. The sprawl in the fringe areas of a
metropolis/urban center is the focus of the Hall and Ashley (2005) study, showing that sprawl
may be contributing to increased hazard vulnerability and risk. What can we do to counter
sprawl? Some planners have been implementing what is called “New Urban” designs. New
urban design is the melding of residential and commercial uses into one structure within
communities. These designs reduce sprawl while combining real estate uses into. The idea is to
reduce and harden infrastructure and limit the reason for movement by providing more essential
needs within a neighborhood. For example, having grocery stores and hygiene stores next to
housing so people can walk to obtain basic needs reducing gas consumption and need for
parking. Are these new designs advantageous? It turns out that research may be proving the
designs contribute to increased risk and vulnerability (Berke, Song & Stevens, 2009, De Silva,
Kruse & Wang, 2008). The increased density exposes more property and individuals to hazards.
In the event of tornado mitigation, the amount of structural requirements prove to be too costly,
thus increasing the risk overall by low quality construction and high density populations in
higher prone areas to hazards.
38
A theory to reduce damages and deaths is to reduce the density. However, this goes
against the planning trends to bring residential and commercial activities closer together that
reducing infrastructure and resources and hardening them through designs. However, as for
tornado safety it has been proven that population density is not a factor alone in reducing deaths
(Donner, 2007). In these same studies, it was shown that living in rural areas decreases the
probability of fatalities. So, even though density has no relationship, living in rural areas
decreases fatality rates. Cities are complex organisms; each one is presented with unique
challenges and opportunities and is subject to various stressors not necessarily experienced
among all. Goldschalk (2003) suggests that collaboration among government and the private
sector or professional groups will improve mitigation at the municipal level. A combination of
methods such as education, land use planning, building codes and practices ultimately will
reduce damages and deaths due to tornadoes.
Another event that resulted in a case study is the Hoisington Kansas tornado that
impacted 45 percent of the community (Brock & Paul, 2003). The resulting outcome was that
the community became more aware of the risk, and consequently implemented new codes and
standards for buildings and land use. City blocks could no longer house eight homes, rather
only contain four residential units. The density was decreased in hopes of reducing future
damages and possibly reducing risks. Construction improved, while 90 percent of the new
construction met higher standards to mitigate tornado winds. Reducing density has advantages.
Research suggests that if a tornado was to impact higher density urban areas, the results would
be catastrophic. Wurman, Alexander, Robinson and Richardson (2007) researched what might
occur if a tornado struck Chicago, Illinois. They suggest that due to the density, the results at a
one percent impact would be 1300 deaths and 40 billion in damages. The one percent is based
39
on adequate warnings, improved shelters and efficient public response. If none of these things
occurred, the most significant tornado (EF-5) would result in upwards of 45,000 potential deaths.
Unfortunately you cannot reduce the density in a city like Chicago, nor would an area such as
Chicago, based on the literature reviewed here, with low frequency be properly prepared.
Building Practices
While density of land use has been studied and considered in reducing losses, the same is
true for residential housing construction and commercial building/environmental interactions.
Wind profiles and loads on structures, and the fluid dynamics of wind storm force were studied
regarding the interaction of tall buildings, debris fields, and risk assessments (Chen, 2008,
Dagnew, Bitsuamalk, Merrick, 2009). The results of these studies have lead to improvements in
building materials on taller structures as well as a better understanding of risk potential to
adjacent buildings. Tall buildings next to other buildings have increased risks at the lower
floors. The risk of damage and injury to persons inside the buildings is reduced at the floors
above the nearest adjacent building due to the debris fields, velocities of debris and increased
pressures between buildings. Implications would be where to shelter, risk assessments for
occupants at the lower levels and building materials needed for safety at the lower levels. These
conclusions and implications do not carry over to the typical residential developments, and
different avenues must be sought when addressing risks across a larger metropolitan area.
Case studies done on tornadoes and specific cities that were impacted have resulted in
dissemination of lessons learned and knowledge to impact mitigation efforts and planning. In a
particular study utilizing a building performance assessment team (BPAT) to assess the damage
after the 1999 Oklahoma tornado outbreak, several conclusions were made (Doswell & Brooks,
2002). An unexpected discovery was that regardless of how safe your home is, if your
40
neighbor’s home quality is poor, nearby homes and lives are at risk from debris fields. Doswell
and Brooks (2002) concluded that homes rarely survive EF4-5 events, and most are only able to
withstand an EF3 tornado. However, if structures are incapable of withstanding even an EF1
event, debris may be brought into the higher wind zones and compromise more capable
structures (Figure 8). The BPAT showed that weather radios were underutilized in a significant
number of homes and businesses. As well it was seen that there were very few acceptable
shelters for people. Moreover, mobile homes, schools and other public buildings need to
consider constructing appropriate shelters (Doswell & Brooks, 2002). Similar conclusions were
supported by Marshall (2002) and in a follow up to an initial survey, it was found that new
housing stock and replacement housing in tornado impacted areas were not constructed with
higher safety standards. Governmental approval of building codes, such as those that define
standards for shingle installation to withstand specific wind speeds and specific framing designs
that attach to the foundations of homes has clear benefits in reducing property losses, damages
and deaths (Figure 9). With each dollar spent on mitigating the effects of tornadoes, the
drawback results in less household financial resources. The health impact to a household is
Figure 8. Debris fields pulling material into the center of the vortex (Source Doswell and
Brooks, 2001).
41
significant as the building cost of a home increases (Hammit, Belsky, Levy & Graham, 1999). It
has been shown that as the building cost increases such as reinforcing walls and additional
improvements to withstand higher rated tornadoes, the increase in cost decreases the available
resources for health care, nutrition and basic needs. In this risk assessment, one has to compare
the benefits, probability and cost to other variables.
Construction practices in residential and low rise buildings are more important because
most people who die in tornadoes live in single family homes and mobile homes. Recent
research found that current building standards are below the standards needed. Haan,
Balaramudu & Sarkar (2010) found that wind load coefficients in laboratory settings showed that
straight line winds are greater than originally predicted and that in tornado alley, single family
homes are not properly designed for those winds. Similar research assesses the ability of wood
framed structures to withstand high winds and windborne debris that penetrates buildings
(Minor, 1994, Sparks, Hessig, Murden & Sill, 1988, Sherman, 1973, Lui, Gopalalratnam &
Figure 9. Hurricane strapping holding framing to foundation (Source Journal of Light
Construction, 1997).
42
Nateghi, 1990). These studies review practices such as toe nailing framing and the envelope
protection during high wind events. Their conclusions demonstrated weak code and practices
subject occupants to windborne hazards.
Where emergency management or hazard studies literature falls short, the engineering
profession provides technical information needed to make appropriate decisions in policy and
safety. Many studies show insight in the technical abilities of structures and how materials
withstand debris impacts (McDonald, 1990, Hhoemaker & Womack, 1990). Specific studies
examined the impact resistance of unreinforced masonry walls with carbon fiber reinforced
polymer strips. Cheng and McComb (2010) used a pendulum system to test walls, and found
that reinforcement specific epoxies woven across the walls drastically increase the strength of the
walls and reduces the effects from impacts. A recent study by Moradi, Davidson and Dinan
(2008) showed that reinforcing walls with membranes or steel sheets made a significant
improvement in high impact forces. Although these results were meant for the military
applications and further testing needs to be done for wind loads, commercial applications would
also benefit. Commercial applications of these materials may be implemented at a reasonable
cost to consumers in the private sector. Construction quality and building codes have been
blamed time and time again for property loss and deaths. Although the research is bountiful
regarding materials, structure and design the same cannot be said for research specific to
mitigation and tornadoes. However, despite the abundance of research from other disciplines
and their recommendations based on the results, very little has been implemented into codes and
common practices for tornadoes.
43
Mobile Home Threat
During a tornado, mobile home occupants account for a high number of deaths (Brooks
and Doswell, 2002, Daley et al. 2005). Overall, mobile homes prove unsafe during tornadoes.
They provide little protection from flying debris, are not anchored to the ground or solid
foundations to withstand high winds and will become a hazard when lifted and moved off their
foundations during EF1-3 or greater events. Simmons and Sutter (2007a) reviewed as a case
study, the 2003 Groundhog’s Day tornadoes in Florida and found that the earlier Housing and
Urban Development (HUD) requirements had a significantly positive impact on lives saved. The
event was one that struck at night, in a region not geographically known for tornadoes, during the
off peak season, and largely in an area populated with mobile/manufactured homes. All the
deaths occurred in mobile homes. The newer homes built after the 1998 HUD requirements,
were 60 % less likely to be damaged. Further studies by Simmons and Sutter (2008b) showed
that even prior regulations (1976) for wind loads on manufactured homes had a 68 percent
improvement in safety to mobile homes. Although mobile homes are comparatively unsafe,
simple tie down and construction techniques can reduce those risks substantially.
If a homeowner is not able to absorb the cost of mitigating against tornadoes upon new
construction or retrofitting old housing stock, can the park owners improve safety with shelters?
Again Simmons and Sutter (2007b) assessed the cost to benefit ratio for creating mobile home
park shelters provided by the owner of the park, and absorbed through rental space fees. They
found rental space costs higher for parks with shelters, but that is not a feasible option for mobile
home owners as most, about 35 percent in Oklahoma for example, are not in parks. They also
found that in tornado prone areas like Oklahoma, renters prefer not to live in mobile home parks.
As a result, park owners are taking more steps to create a safer environment with better shelter
44
options to attract renters. This is encouraging and challenging because in the current economy,
mobile home housing stock may be increasing. Most mobile homes are purchased by older
individuals and placed in rural areas. These homes have fewer shelter options which may add to
the vulnerability for communities. Because of the higher vulnerability, those communities may
have to assess cost versus benefits for safety options differently than before. Merrel, Simmons &
Sutter (2005) reviewed the cost effectiveness of these shelters and found mobile home parks
providing shelters to be cost effective. The study was conducted in Oklahoma, and they
admitted that due to the high frequency of tornadoes in this area, the shelter construction was
cost effective per life saved. However, in the areas that have low probability, high impact
tornadoes outside of the traditional alley but have out of season events, potential future studies
may conclude that the risk for southern states may outweigh the cost from shelter construction
too.
Sheltering
Since the inception of modern warning systems, such as sirens or broadcast of storm
information to the communities via radio and television, we have seen improvements in the
number of people who seek shelter before an impending tornado (Coleman, Knupp, Spann,
Elliott & Peters, 2011). Liu, Quenenmoen, Malilay, Noji, Sinks & Mendlein (1996) reviewed
the response to warnings during tornadoes in Alabama, and found that individuals sought shelter
more often when adequate facilities were available. They concluded that education was
necessary in regard to actions to take during warnings and watches, specifically for those
individuals with less than a high school education. Television, despite siren use, was a major
source of information during storms and warnings. Lastly, a majority of respondents reported
that they did not have access to adequate sheltering options. Adequate shelter overall in public
45
buildings and private residences is a factor that needs to be emphasized in every community
where tornadoes are a risk factor, despite the low probability. Emergency managers need to
focus education on adequate shelter during tornadoes because it is crucial to saving lives.
Building practices in residential and commercial structures are one of the many
mitigation practices that afford overall safety in a community. While reducing the possibility of
structure failure during high wind events, shelters in public buildings are needed to provide
safety to citizens outside their residences. Most lives are lost in residential homes, where people
feel they should stay, as they cling to news and warnings. To ensure safety within a residential
structure, safe rooms and retrofits should be considered.
Mitigation reduces the loss from future hazards but this comes with upfront cost and must
be justified. FEMA has reviewed cost/benefit analysis of their hazard mitigation grants and
found that the benefits significantly reduce the possible losses to hazards (Rose et al., 2007).
Rose et al. (2007) found wind hazards cost $1 for every $4.7 saved. However, the greatest
benefit was to the utilities infrastructure, not to residential built environments. Even though the
utilities gain the most per dollar spent, the overall benefit across all hazards is four to one.
Having hardened utility infrastructures ultimately benefits the home owner indirectly by
providing power to maintain heat or storage of food. Policies set in place by federal
administrators for many common consumer products were reviewed against tornado shelters.
Merrell, Simmons and Sutter (2002) found that half the regulations for consumer products e.g.
seatbelts, Clean Air Act, scored higher in cost per life saved than tornado shelters. However, the
benefits to preserving property and maintaining a workforce after an event are better than most
regulations and could easily be argued in a discussion on policy. Shelters do not attract a lot of
46
political discussion, but we need this discussion to realize the true cost of lives lost and
rebuilding cost to fully perceive the benefits.
Buckley (2001) describes the benefits and the potential cost of building the highest safety
rated shelter in a school. The level of safety parents demand is high and even one child lost is
one too many. Unfortunately, with time hazard memory and concern from a tornado event fades
reducing the desire to build and the cost hurdle higher. Looking at shelter cost from a
manufacturing point of view, business is good when the experience of a tornado is fresh in their
mind. Miller, Morgan and Womack (2002) found that when the memory of a tornado is fresh,
such as currently experiencing one or near a community where a person lives the desire and
inquiries for tornado shelters increases. However, the inquiries to builders quickly fall, and
incentives are needed to encourage construction of tornado shelters within months after an event.
Follow up research by Merrell, Simmons and Sutter (2005) revealed that residents see low
probability as no probability thus will not commit to safety measures even if there are high
consequences. In the above research it was again noted that cost effectiveness is greater for
mobile home, not for permanent homes (Merrell, Simmons & Sutter, 2005, Simmons & Sutter
2006). However you look at it those who can afford effective measures are already in the safer
homes. This may be more of an issue of recognizing where benefits are most cost effective than
simply preparedness.
The tools accessible to emergency managers to assess risk are abundant. Whalen, Gopal
and Abraham (2004) developed a model to help assess the cost/benefit of constructing shelters in
communities. The model will greatly benefit the emergency manager to continue to assess safety
within their areas of responsibilities. FEMA has a Benefit Cost Analysis tool and readily
accessible on its website. This tool, although not specific to tornadoes, gives the ability to
47
emergency managers to assess assets and evaluate the impacts in certain hazards and events.
There are many useful life saving tools available to emergency managers and communities.
How we use them to predict, warn, prepare or mitigate hazards determines the level of safety we
can achieve.
48
CHAPTER 6. CONCLUSIONS
The number of tornadoes reported is increasing, but there is little evidence that tornadoes
are more numerous or intense than in the past. Most data suggests that reports are increasing due
to heightened community awareness and improved technology aiding identification of tornadoes
between F0 and F2. These factors have improved our abilities to identify tornadoes in areas not
observed in the past (Anderson, Wikle, Zhou & Royle, 2007). Tornadoes are not increasing in
intensity, and the link to damages is only due to the community’s increased wealth. The problem
is those who have not dug into the research will only see the raw data indicating an increase of
tornadoes and damages per year. This is misleading as those numbers do not represent all the
variables we have discussed in this review. Without a thorough knowledge and review of the
underlying variables it becomes impossible to arrive at reasonable assumptions why tornado
occurrences are increasing.
The research shows that there is an increase risk overall outside the typical or traditional
tornado alley. This is important because these areas receive the least education and preparedness
efforts needed to save lives. The risk due to factors such as lack of knowledge, ability to provide
warnings, building practices and atypical events needs to be considered by emergency managers.
Nocturnal tornadoes need to be studied further and nighttime events need to be monitored more
closely as they are the most deadly. The need to generalize results across populations is a real
problem. Tailored preparedness must be conducted to provide messages for dwelling types
specific to regions. Addressing the North/South differences by emergency managers with
specific messages and assessments should be done based on these research results. Improvement
in awareness will also be achieved with education which will lead to mitigating hazards and risks
associated with tornadoes.
49
The traditional risk of the alley in our current period has to be thrown out and as
emergency managers our perception of the risk has to be tailored more specifically to our
locality. Belief in a warning system alone is not good enough and more has to be involved to
keep our communities safe. A comprehensive attack has to be made with public warning,
individual knowledge, technical advancement and socio-economic improvements.
The ability to predict tornadoes is increasing and efforts to identify potentially high risk
storms have been improved. However, a tornado may occur anytime and develop in many
unpredictable ways. What we do know is our prediction abilities are less sensitive in the first
month of the season and the first storm cell of the day. That lack of sensitivity increases our risk,
and has been argued it would be eliminated with the implementation of the automated warning
systems. However, those same systems remove experience and the intuition of the person who
knows the area, weather patterns, and the history of the area. It was also noted that meteorologist
should rely on equipment and less on visual verification, which may improve warnings for
nocturnal events. However, as part of the comprehensive method of improving tornado safety
individual knowledge is critical and why we use spotters. If we are expected to rely on the
technical data and modeling of the forecasters computer programs we would inherently dismiss
the local spotters. The data I reviewed seems to contradict itself and although the improvement
of software has improved forecasting, teasing out the conclusions, spotters and increased
education in our communities about tornadoes is a must.
More education geared towards the public on prediction terminology is needed. The
public gets terminology confused and consequently reacts poorly to warnings, watches and
sightings. Improving understanding of terminology by the public will save lives by reducing
complacency brought about by overly long lead times. By understanding and trusting the
50
warnings, the public will likely stay sheltered and be patient for events to pass. As some of the
research pointed out, if the public is less education and relies on the social trust for risk
perception the message has to be simple and clear. It must also be noted that most research
identified a need but none was found on how to specifically address this issue.
Unfortunately, there are conflicting results on sprawl and density of planning. Research
has shown that after a high impact event, improvements in construction do not occur. The
tradeoff between safety and acceptable risk is a discussion that will continue. We cannot be
fooled into believing that technology will save or improve safety in high risk areas while
ignoring unanticipated future hazards and events. Consequently, we adapt to what has occurred
and hope that we have seen the worst of what is to come. Planning and policy making has to be
specific to the region for which you’re planning. High density may work for flooding, heat
waves, or drought areas, but the infrastructure issues involved with tornadoes, earthquakes may
not be reasonable. The economic bases for new urban designs make sense and have been
successful in areas like Portland Oregon; however in rural North Dakota the main street ideal is
much different and less feasible. The benefit cost ration in this matter is again specific to a
community and again socio-economic factors have to be considered.
The idea of mitigation is to reduce the impacts of hazards. Birkland (2006) provided a
realistic approach to the hazard problem. Birkland concludes that preparing and mitigating the
hazard impacts, we will routinize the events. Our natural environment cannot be controlled nor
dictated. Consequently, communities need to modify their actions and understanding to adapt to
the environment. We have to live with the hazards because we cannot and will never eliminate
them. Continued population growth and its secondary and tertiary impacts increase the
interaction between the natural environment and the built environment. Given this continuous
51
expansion, frequent interactions with hazards require routinized response to typical disasters
(Birkland, 2006). As we move forward and time passes it is not enough to just consider one
factor or one variable. Perception of hazards is done best when it considers the thousand points
of light. It is not our role as emergency managers to address all aspects of the disasters such as
socio-economical hazards but we must consider and understand them in order to serve our
communities and regions. We need to not only be aware of the environmental risk, but also the
economical, technological, societal, and global factors that impact our communities and how
those impacts outside our communities as well. This review only brushes lightly on factors
involved in tornadoes, their impacts, research gaps and contradictions. It may however allow a
reader to understand the history of tornadoes in the U.S., our predictive abilities, shortcomings
and the preparedness and mitigation issues to be considered. It should be noted that overall the
literature on tornadoes is far less abundant than that on floods, earthquakes and hurricanes. This
is an area that would benefit in bringing together multidiscipline approaches to research and
information dissemination. For tornadoes to be understood it is necessary to go beyond
emergency management literature and into accompanying disciplines to capture all the details
related to this low frequency high impact hazard.
52
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