HOW MIGHT DRIVERLESS
CARS AFFECT OUR CITY?
Special London supplement to the Future
Advocacy report “An Intelligent Future?”
Driverless cars are on their way
According to our new exclusive YouGov poll, most
Londoners still see driverless cars as a futuristic
phenomenon that will not be seen on the streets of
London for many years.
But driverless cars will be with us much sooner than
many people think. They are already being trialed
as part of Uber’s fleet in Pitsburgh. And London will
not be far behind.
Britain is a leader in this field, and the government
has been swift to adapt legislation to make the
UK an attractive place to pioneer this technology.
While other countries work to build public and
commercial acceptance, the UK has established a
clear – and liberal – set of national rules, and
AN INTELLIGENT FUTURE?
Maximising the opportunities and minimising the risks of
artificial intelligence in the UK
published a code of practice for those who wish to
road-test here. Trials are ongoing or planned in
Bristol, Milton Keynes, Greenwich and Coventry.1
Motorway trials will be under way in 2017 and Volvo
plan to have 100 cars driving Londoners and their
families around within two years as a part of their
‘Drive Me London’ programme.2
The Modern Transport Bill, announced in this year’s
Queen’s Speech, will aim to “put the UK at the forefront
of autonomous and driverless vehicles ownership
and use.” Though not unique in encouraging this
pioneering technology, the UK’s hospitable and
liberal regulation make the Government’s position
clear: the UK welcomes a future where human drivers
will no longer be necessary, and is working hard to
ensure it is one of the first places where these cars
are widely tested, and then deployed.
Headlines
• Exclusive new online YouGov poll shows that many Londoners think that driverless cars will only
be seen on the streets of London in ten years or more BUT in fact they are already being tested,
or about to be, in Bristol, Milton Keynes, Greenwich, and Coventry; Volvo has plans to have 100
driverless cars on London streets within 2 years; and Uber’s goal is to replace all drivers in its fleet.3
• Driverless cars could eliminate congestion, boosting London’s economy by up to £5.5 billion a year.
• 1,800 deaths or serious injuries could be prevented in London every year (in addition to this
reductions in pollution could help prevent some of 9,400 deaths in London every year).
• 104,000 taxi and private hire drivers’ jobs will be put at risk.
• 9,000 football pitches of parking space could be freed up.
1.
2.
3.
Murgia, M. (2016, 11 April) Britain leads the world in putting driverless vehicles on the roads. The Telegraph (retrieved from http://telegraph.co.uk,
accessed 19 October, 2016).
Tovey, A. (2016, 27 April) Look, no hands! Driverless Volvos to hit Britain’s streets. The Telegraph (retrieved from http://telegraph.co.uk, accessed
19 October, 2016).
All figures, where stated, are from YouGov Plc. Total sample size was 2070 adults, of which 252 were in London. Fieldwork was undertaken between
10th - 11th October 2016. The survey was carried out online. The figures have been weighted and are representative of all UK adults (aged 18+).
AN INTELLIGENT FUTURE? MAXIMISING THE OPPORTUNITIES AND MINIMISING THE RISKS OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE IN THE UK
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YouGov Poll Graph 2
Approximately, when, if ever, do you think driverless cars will be on the road in London?
In less than a year
– Our exclusive new poll
shows that many Londoners
think that driverless cars will
be seen on the streets of
London in ten years or more.
2%
In a year
6%
In 2 years
8%
In 5 years
24%
In 10 years
21%
In more than 10 years
19%
Don’t know
7%
Not applicable - I don’t think
driverless cars will ever be on
the road in Britain
12%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Figures are from YouGov Plc. Total UK sample size was 2070 adults. 252 Londoners responded. Fieldwork was undertaken between 10th - 11th October 2016.
The survey was carried out online. The figures have been weighted and are representative of all UK adults (aged 18+).
Driverless cars will allow great
progress in London
London has one of the lowest rates of car ownership
in the country, with 2.6 million cars registered as of
2012.4 In spite of low ownership rates, the capital
is one of the worst places to drive in the country.
London regularly tops global tables for congestion,
and for the past two years has been consecutively
named the ‘world’s most gridlocked city’.5
This congestion has serious knock-on effects. Economically, a Transport for London study places the
costs at a staggering £5.5 billion a year, a sizeable
fraction of the city’s £364 billion annual output. The
average London driver spends an estimated 101
hours a year stuck in traffic, compared to an average
of 30 hours for the UK as a whole. 6 All of this
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contributes to significant noise and chemical pollution
associated with heavy traffic, which in turn have
their own negative knock-on effects.
Driverless cars would change this. Autonomous
vehicles would be capable of travelling closer together
and at a much greater average speed, improving
traffic flow immensely. Autonomous vehicles would
be able to optimize driving to road and traffic
conditions, which when coupled with the removal of
congestion-causing bad driving habits, such as inefficient lane merging and panic braking, could lower
congestion further. Changes could be even more
drastic, with one OECD study suggesting that when
combined with high-capacity public transport 9 out
of every 10 cars could be removed and still deliver
the same degree of mobility experienced today.7
TfL (2013) Roads Task Force Supporting Documents – Technical Note 12. How many cars are there in London and who owns them? Transport for London.
Mann, S. (2016, 15 March) London ‘the world’s most gridlocked city’. Evening Standard (retrieved from http://standard.co.uk, accessed 19
October, 2016).
See INRIX (2015) INRIX 2015 Traffic Scorecard. INRIX (retrieved from http://inrix.com, accessed 19 October, 2016).
International Transport Forum (2015) Urban Mobility System Upgrade: How shared self-driving cars could change city traffic. OECD.
AN INTELLIGENT FUTURE? MAXIMISING THE OPPORTUNITIES AND MINIMISING THE RISKS OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE IN THE UK
It is possible, then, that driverless cars could add up
to £5.5 billion to the London economy by eliminating
or reducing congestion alone. Beyond this, fuel use
would become more efficient, helping to cut down
on emissions which have negative consequences for
the environment and Londoners’ health. For example,
levels of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), which can arise
as a consequence of vehicular nitrogen oxide
(NOx) emissions, widely exceed the EU limit for
safe exposure. At or below this level, a review by
the World Health Organization points to adverse
health effects from short or long term exposure,8 and
a recent study by King’s College London suggests
this is responsible for up to 5,900 deaths a year in
London.9
Another pollutant, fine particulate matter, is harmful
at any level,10 and though London largely meets
EU limits, long-term exposure is still responsible for
3,500 deaths a year.11 Exposure to nitrogen dioxide
and fine particulate matter alone is estimated to cost
London between £1.4 and £3.7 billion each year.
Though driverless cars will not eliminate emissions,
improved efficiency in fuel use, amongst other
factors, will decrease these, and likely result in
substantial improvements to the health of Londoners.
Autonomous vehicles would also eliminate the need
for much parking space, a significant problem in
London today. Studies suggest that all on-street
residential parking could be eliminated and up to
80% of off-street parking.12 In London this could
save the equivalent of 9,000 football pitches of
space. This space could be used in a number of
ways, from enlarging footpaths and creating recreational areas, to creating new cycle paths or even
providing a space for new urban farms.
Many lives will also be saved. In 2015, 2,092
people were killed or seriously injured in London
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in 30,182 collisions.13 With approximately 90% of
traffic accidents being the responsibility of drivers,14
27,000 of these collisions could have been avoided,
and 1,800 people saved from death or serious injury.
This would relieve a considerable amount of strain
from the NHS, freeing up staff and resources – particularly in A&E and orthopedic wards – to deal
with other problems.
According to a recent White House report “the consensus of experts is that automated surface vehicle
technology will eventually be safer than human drivers
and may someday prevent most of the tens of thousands
of fatalities that occur annually on the Nation’s
roads and highways.” And “may save hundreds of
thousands of lives every day worldwide”.15
Driverless cars also offer the possibility of greater
mobility for the elderly and those with disabilities
who may not be able to drive. First- and last-mile
access to public transport may provide isolated
communities easier access to health care, groceries,
and employment.16
Beyond the more immediate impact of driverless
cars in London, there are likely to be more profound
changes to the urban landscape. The city will expand,
with suburban areas extending as a function of
increased speed of transit17 and a longer commute
made more bearable by the ability to focus on tasks
other than driving, such as work or relaxation. Similarly,
it is likely that property prices will no longer be
dictated by their proximity to tube stations, or at
least not to the extent it is today.
Though for smaller cities driverless cars may
‘completely obviate the need for traditional public
transport’,18 London’s size points towards coexistence.
Indeed, driverless cars would provide much needed
relief from the strained underground system.
World Health Organization (2013) Review of evidence on health aspects of air pollution – REVIHAAP Project. World Health Organization (retrieved
from http://euro.who.int, accessed 19 October, 2016).
Walton, H., Dajnak, D., Beevers, S., Williams, M., Watkiss, P., and Hunt, A. (2015). Understanding the health impacts of air pollution in London.
King’s College London (retrieved from https://london.gov.uk, accessed 19 October, 2016).
TfL (2014) Ultra Low Emission Zone consultation. Supplementary information. Transport for London (retrieved from https://consultations.tfl.gov.uk).
Walton, H., Dajnak, D., Beevers, S., Williams, M., Watkiss, P., and Hunt, A. (2015). Understanding the health impacts of air pollution in London.
King’s College London (retrieved from https://london.gov.uk, accessed 19 October, 2016).
International Transport Forum (2015) Urban Mobility System Upgrade: How shared self-driving cars could change city traffic. OECD.
TfL (2016) Casualties in Greater London During 2015. Transport for London (retrieved from http://content.tfl.gov.uk, accessed 19 October, 2016).
Bertoncello, M. and Wee, D. (2015, June) Ten ways autonomous driving could redefine the automotive world. McKinsey (retrieved from http://
mckinsey.com, accessed 19 October, 2016).
Executive Office of the President (2016, October) Preparing for the Future of Artificial Intelligence.
Executive Office of the President (2016, October) Preparing for the Future of Artificial Intelligence.
Mims, C. (2016, 20 June) Driverless Cars to Fuel Suburban Sprawl. The Wall Street Journal (retrieved from http://wsj.com, accessed 19 October, 2016).
International Transport Forum (2015) Urban Mobility System Upgrade: How shared self-driving cars could change city traffic. OECD.
AN INTELLIGENT FUTURE? MAXIMISING THE OPPORTUNITIES AND MINIMISING THE RISKS OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE IN THE UK
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Driverless cars will have some negative
impacts on Londoners
Though there are many compelling reasons to support
driverless rollout, there are a number of downsides.
Many jobs will be lost. For example, few of London’s
104,000 private hire and taxi drivers will remain
employed with the uptake of driverless technology.19
Uber, which now boasts 25,000 drivers in the city,
has made clear its plans for replacing its fleet of
drivers entirely. Uber believe this will transform the
notion of owning a car. This summer the company
began conducting trials of autonomous vehicles in
Pittsburgh, becoming one of the first companies in
the world to trial this technology with members of
the public.
Travis Kalanick, Uber’s CEO, says that
“The reason Uber could be expensive is because
you’re not just paying for the car — you’re paying
for the other dude in the car. When there’s no other
dude in the car, the cost of taking an Uber anywhere
becomes cheaper than owning a vehicle. So the
magic there is, you basically bring the cost below
the cost of ownership for everybody, and then car
ownership goes away.”20
Jobs as taxi dispatchers and car rental businesses
are also likely to disappear, and though new jobs
will emerge, for instance in maintaining the fleet of
driverless cars, these are likely to be far fewer in
number than those lost.
It is also likely that other sectors of employment will
experience decline. Fewer traffic accidents will likely
reduce demand for car repairs and mechanics, and
fewer, if any, attendants will be needed to man and
police car parking or traffic. There are also likely
to be direct monetary losses as well, with the £308
million surplus in parking revenue London councils
generated last year likely to vanish completely.21
Uber began trialling driverless cars in Pittsburgh in September 2016.
POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
The Mayor of London should commission a detailed study on how a wide rollout of self-driving cars
will impact London.22 Such a study should assess the impact of driverless cars on London’s traffic
system, urban planning, existing transport systems and more. This study could be used to inform
public urban and transport policy, and to fully engage and inform the public of the big changes
that are coming.
19. TfL (2016) Taxi and Private Hire Action Plan 2016. Transport for London (retrieved from http://content.tfl.gov.uk, accessed 19 October, 2016).
20. Newton, C. (2014, 28 May) Uber will eventually replace all its drivers with self-driving cars. The Verge (retrieved from http://theverge.com, accessed
19 October, 2016).
21. RAC Foundation (2015, 7 December) Council parking ‘profits’ up again in England. RAC Foundation (retrieved from http://racfoundation.org,
accessed 19 October, 2016).
22. A useful model could be the OECD study of how shared self-driving cars could change city traffic in Lisbon. See International Transport Forum (2015)
Urban Mobility System Upgrade: How shared self-driving cars could change city traffic. OECD.
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AN INTELLIGENT FUTURE? MAXIMISING THE OPPORTUNITIES AND MINIMISING THE RISKS OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE IN THE UK