Landscape Ecol (2011) 26:225–237 DOI 10.1007/s10980-010-9556-0 RESEARCH ARTICLE Fire severity and seed source influence lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. murrayana) regeneration in the southern cascades, Lassen volcanic National Park, California Andrew D. Pierce • Alan H. Taylor Received: 15 June 2010 / Accepted: 8 November 2010 / Published online: 20 November 2010 Ó Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010 Abstract Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine, (Pinus contorta var. latifolia) regenerates quickly after high severity fire because seeds from serotinous cones are released immediately post-fire. Sierra lodgepole pine (P. contorta var. murrayana) forests burn with variable intensity resulting in different levels of severity and because this variety of lodgepole pine does not have serotinous cones, little is known about what factors influence post-fire regeneration. This study quantifies tree regeneration in a low, moderate, and high severity burn patch in a Sierra lodgepole forest 24 years after fire. Regeneration was measured in ten plots in each severity type. In each plot, we quantified pre- and postfire forest structure (basal area, density), counted and aged tree seedlings and saplings of all species, and measured distance to the nearest seed bearing tree. There was no difference in the density of seedlings and saplings among severity classes. Distance and direction to the nearest seed bearing lodgepole pine were the best predictors of lodgepole seedling and sapling density in high severity plots. In contrast to Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine, regeneration of Sierra lodgepole pine appears to rely on in-seeding from A. D. Pierce (&) A. H. Taylor Department of Geography, Pennsylvania State University, 302 Walker Building, University Park, PA 16802, USA e-mail: [email protected] A. H. Taylor Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, 302 Walker Building, University Park, PA 16802, USA surviving trees in low or moderate severity burn patches or live trees next to high severity burn patches. Our data demonstrate that Sierra lodgepole pine follows stand development pathways hypothesized for non-serotinous stands of Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine. Keywords Lodgepole pine Fire severity Stand replacing fire Tree regeneration Dispersal distance Seed dispersal Safe sites Stand development Introduction High severity disturbance that kills most or all of the forest canopy is often followed by a pulse of tree establishment that leads to the development of an evenaged forest (Agee 1993; Gutsell and Johnson 2002). This post-fire regeneration pattern is exemplified in stands of Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia) where the pines have serotinous cones (Turner et al. 1997, Despain 2001). However, Rocky Mountain lodgepole can regenerate without fire in tree fall gaps and forms self replacing stands on some sites (Despain 1983). Moreover, there is evidence that cone serotiny varies among stands and that the degree of cone serotiny contributes significantly to both the abundance of post-fire regeneration immediately postfire and how lodgepole pine forests develop following fire disturbance (Turner and Romme 1994; Turner et al. 1997; Nyland 1998). Consequently, variation in cone 123 226 serotiny is thought to lead to distinct pathways of lodgepole pine forest development (Turner et al. 1997; Nyland 1998). Nyland (1998) hypothesized several stand development pathways for lodgepole pine depending on both degree of serotiny and percent mortality. In stands dominated by serotinous lodgepole pine, a single pulse of regeneration develops into a closed canopy of even-aged lodgepole pine (Nyland 1998). In stands without serotinous cones, post fire regeneration is thought to be regulated by local seed rain and short distance (\60 m) dispersal (Nyland 1998). Thus, large and severe burns, even those with small numbers of surviving mature trees, may take decades to centuries to develop into closed forest following fire resulting in multi-aged stands (Nyland 1998). In the upper montane zone of the southern Cascade range, Sierra lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. murrayana; hereafter lodgepole pine)1 grows in monospecific and mixed stands with red fir (Abies magnifica var. magnifica), white fir (A. concolor), and Jeffrey pine (P. jeffreyi) on both the western and eastern slopes of the range at elevations between 1900 and 2200 m (Franklin and Dyrness 1973; Parker 1991; Barbour and Minnich 2000). Lodgepole does not have serotinous cones in the southern Cascade Range or the Sierra Nevada and therefore the role of fire in the development and dynamics of lodgepole forests in these mountains is not well known (Lotan and Critchfield 1990; Despain 2001). In the southern Sierra Nevada, Caprio (2008) found fire scar evidence of extensive surface fire at intervals of 50 years (mean Fire Return Interval [FRI]) in self-replacing lodgepole forests. The fires were intense enough to scar trees, but the fire regime was interpreted as one of low and moderate severity with stands that were mainly multi-aged (Caprio 2008). In the southern Cascades, lodgepole occurs in nearly pure stands on moist valley bottoms and flats characterized by coldair drainage and nutrient-poor soils (Franklin and Dyrness 1973; Zeigler 1978; Parker 1991). Lodgepole are both even- and multi-aged and also display negative exponential size structures (Zeigler 1978; Parker 1993). In Crater Lake National Park (CLNP, approx. 300 km north), lodgepole exists in self replacing communities or as a post-fire colonist that 1 All nomenclature follows Hickman (1993). 123 Landscape Ecol (2011) 26:225–237 will succeed to forests of more shade-tolerant species—primarily red fir (Zeigler 1978; Chappell and Agee 1996). In Lassen Volcanic National Park (LVNP) and the surrounding Lassen National Forest, several authors have described fire regimes in lodgepole stands (Parker 1993; Taylor and Solem 2001; Bekker and Taylor 2001). Lodgepole pine stands experienced more high severity fire than adjacent forest types (38–75% high severity vs. 13–25%), and the interval between fires was longer (median FRI 67 vs. 41 years) (Taylor and Solem 2001). Bekker and Taylor (2001) confirm these findings and describe lodgepole pine stands that burned at long intervals, but with high severity and large extent. In contrast, the regeneration dynamics of lodgepole pine stands in LVNP appear to be driven by both tree fall gap disturbances and fire (Parker 1993). The effects of variable intensity fire on the abundance of post-fire regeneration of lodgepole in the Cascade Range is poorly known but regeneration is thought to be abundant following high intensity fire (Franklin and Dyrness 1973; Zeigler 1978). Yet, in contrast to Rocky Mountain lodgepole, Chappell and Agee (1996) found that categories of fire severity were not related to the abundance of post-fire lodgepole seedlings and saplings in CLNP. The high-severity post-fire environment may be less favorable than in mature forest, or seed sources may be too distant for the establishment of an abundant seedling population immediately following fire (Zeigler 1978; Chappell and Agee 1996). In CLNP lodgepole pine forests seedling density was negatively related to distance to seed sources (Chappell and Agee 1996). Further, because lodgepole pine cones develop in one year, shed their seeds in the second year, and viable seeds germinate in the third year (Lotan and Critchfield 1990), variation in snowpack depth and amelioration of abiotic conditions by safe microsites provided by shrubs and herbs are thought to be key factors contributing to successful post-fire lodgepole pine regeneration (Zeigler 1978; Chappell and Agee 1996). The goal of this study was to identify factors that influence post-fire regeneration in lodgepole pine stands in the southern Cascades within the perimeter of the 1984 Badger Fire. Specifically we address the following research questions: (1) Is the abundance of tree regeneration related to variation in fire severity? (2) In high severity patches, is the abundance of lodgepole regeneration related to the distance and Landscape Ecol (2011) 26:225–237 direction to the nearest seed bearing tree? (3) Is the abundance of tree regeneration related to safe microsites provided by logs, shrubs, or other ground cover that are known to influence tree regeneration in similar ecosystems? (4) Is there evidence of an effect of interannual climate variation on the timing or number of regenerating individuals? Methods Study area LVNP lies at the southern end of the Cascade Range, a volcanic plateau punctuated by high volcanic peaks (Fig. 1). LVNP itself is underlain by recent (Pliocene to Quarternary) andesites, rhyolites, and basalts (Kane 1980). Dominant vegetation communities covary with elevation (Parker 1986, 1991, 1993; Taylor 1990, 2000; Schoenherr 1992). High elevation forests are dominated by mountain hemlock (Tsuga mertensiana) and whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) often with pine mat manzanita (Arctostaphylos nevadensis) in the understory. Upper montane forests are composed of red fir (A. magnifica var. magnifica), white fir (A. concolor), and western white pine (P. monticola) with pine mat manzanita (A. nevadensis), greenleaf manzanita (A. patula), and snowbrush (Ceanothus velutinus) in the understory. Lodgepole pine (P. contorta spp. murrayana) occupies low lying depressions in the upper montane zone where cold air drainage is a dominant part of the regeneration climate often with rabbit bush (Chrysothamnus naseousus) in the understory. Lower montane forests are dominated by Jeffrey pine (P. jeffreyi) and white fir (A. concolor). 227 Fires in LVNP occur mainly during the fall, after tree growth for the year has ceased (Taylor 2000). Point fire return intervals in LVNP vary with elevation and forest type: 16 years in low elevation Jeffrey pine forest to 22 years in mid-elevation white fir/red fir forest and up to 70 years in upper montane red fir-western white pine forest (Taylor 2000). Fire frequency declined dramatically after 1905 when a policy of suppressing fire was implemented on federal forest lands (Taylor 2000). The climate is Mediterranean and is characterized by hot, dry summers and cold, wet winters. Average monthly temperatures at Manzanita Lake, California (in LVNP), range from -6.6°C minimum and 5.0°C maximum in January to 7.5°C and 26.1°C in July (WRCC 2009). Annual average precipitation is 104 cm, but inter-annual variability is high. Most precipitation ([80%) falls as snow between November and April and annual maximum snowpack depth (usually in April or May) ranges from 1.63 to 8.41 m with an average of 4.63 m. The Badger fire burned 563 hectares with variable severity near the northern boundary of LVNP in 1984. This fire was left to burn inside the Park boundary, but was suppressed when it crossed out of the Park onto National Forest lands. The area dominated by selfreplacing stands of lodgepole pine before burning tended to be dominated by high severity effects. Since 1984, some areas have had no successful tree regeneration while other areas have abundant regeneration of lodgepole pine, Jeffrey pine, white fir and red fir (Fig. 2). Andesite and basalt of Quarternary age underlie the area, but surface material is mixed and includes significant amounts of gravel sized pumice. The topography is mostly flat to low relief. Fig. 1 Map showing Lassen Volcanic National Park and its location in northeastern California 123 228 Landscape Ecol (2011) 26:225–237 Fig. 2 A photograph of Badger Flat inside Lassen Volcanic National Park showing part of the area of severe burning in P. contorta dominated stands. Note the patchiness of regeneration Fire severity patch mapping Patches that burned at different fire severities were identified and mapped using aerial photographs, fire perimeter maps, and a vegetation cover type map in a GIS. A perimeter map of the 1984 Badger Fire was used to delimit the boundary of the study area. Recent fire perimeters from prescribed fires that overlapped the Badger Fire were used to exclude some areas from sampling. The vegetation cover type map was then used to identify the location of the lodgepole dominated area inside the Badger Fire perimeter. Fire severity patch types were delimited on 2005 aerial photographs based on a visual estimate of canopy loss between pre- and post-fire images. We defined severity patches based on observed canopy loss: C75% in high severity patches; between 25 and 75% in moderate severity patches; and \25% in low severity patches. Patches were visited once each to ensure that they fell into the above defined severity categories before sampling began. The minimum mapped patch size was 2.5 ha. Current stand size structure was identified during the summer of 2008 by randomly selecting one patch from each severity class and sampling 10 randomly located circular plots of 250 m2 in each patch (n = 30). All trees (dbh C 4 cm) rooted in the plot were identified to species and their dbh and status (live, 123 standing dead [snag], or down and dead) was recorded. The presence or absence of cones on live lodgepole pine trees was also recorded. Any dead trees having most of their bark remaining or still having needles were recorded as having survived the 1984 fire. All trees were later categorized into 10 cm size classes. Post-fire regeneration Post-fire regeneration was assessed by counting saplings (\4 cm dbh, C1.4 m height) large seedlings (0.5–1.4 m height), and small seedlings (\0.5 m height, C2 whorls) of each species in each quadrant of the circular plot. Temporal variation in recruitment was determined by estimating stem age by counting the number of branch whorls on each stem. We also cored to the pith all trees with low whorl counts (B25) and regular growth form which likely regenerated after the 1984 fire. All cores were taken at a height of 30 cm. To assess the accuracy of whorl counts and to estimate the number of years needed for seedlings to reach coring height, we randomly selected 20 open grown lodgepole pine seedlings at least 30 cm tall and then cut them off at ground level. In the lab, discs were removed at the stem base and at a height of 30 cm. Discs were dried, sanded to a high polish, and their age was determined by counting Landscape Ecol (2011) 26:225–237 229 their annual growth rings. Cores were sanded to a high polish and cross-dated to the Lemon Canyon chronology (Holmes and Adams 1981) using standard dendrochronological techniques (Stokes and Smiley 1996). The year of the inner most ring was then used as an estimate of tree age at coring height. The year of establishment for the seedlings, saplings, and post-fire trees was estimated by adding a correction factor to whorl and ring counts based on dated discs from the sampled seedlings and the tree core ages. We calculated the average difference between ring count at ground level and both the ring count at 30 cm and the total whorl count. For seedling and sapling ages, the field based whorl count was corrected by adding the average difference between the basal ring count and the total whorl count. The age of a cored tree was corrected by adding the average difference between the basal ring counts and the ring count at 30 cm. Spatial patterns and dynamics To assess the spatial relationship between seed source and regeneration, we took additional measurements in 8 of the 10 high severity plots that contained no seed bearing lodgepole pine stems. From the plot center, we measured the distance and direction to the nearest cone bearing lodgepole pine. To determine if the directions to the cone bearing individual were randomly distributed, we compared observed directions to a uniform distribution using Kuiper’s Test of Uniformity (Jammalamadaka and SenGupta 2001; Agostinelli 2009). We also obtained wind direction data for Manzanita Lake, CA (7 km west) from the Remote Automated Weather Stations (RAWS) archive maintained by the Desert Research Institute (DRI 2010) to compare the direction of cone bearing individuals to dominant wind directions using a circular version of a correlation test (Jammalamadaka and SenGupta 2001; Agostinelli 2009). We investigated the relationship between regeneration density and distance to seed source by applying an exponential dispersal kernel (Willson 1992). Assuming that the density of seedlings and saplings in each plot would decay exponentially with distance, we used the linear form: lnð yÞ ¼ lnðaÞ bx ð1Þ where y is the count of seedlings and saplings and x is the distance to the nearest cone bearing individual (Willson 1992). To investigate the relationship between regeneration age and distance, we constructed a linear regression of plot average age against distance to seed source. Microsites We related the density of regeneration to pre- and post-fire basal area by identifying the types of fire effects on each tree. The categories were live trees (survivors) dead trees (killed by fire), and post-fire trees (survivors plus newly established trees). We then calculated pre-fire live basal area, post-fire live basal area, and current live basal area for each plot and then correlated these values with the number of seedlings and saplings in each plot. The effect of fire severity on total regeneration in each plot for each species was identified using ANOVA. Tukey’s HSD post-hoc test was used to identify differences between severity types. Variation in types of ground cover thought to provide safe microsites for germination was determined by quantifying ground cover characteristics in four 10 m2 circular subplots in each plot. Subplot centers were placed equidistant between the plot center and the plot edge along the four plot radii. In each subplot the percent cover of logs (C4 cm dbh), rock ([10 cm across), rock fragments (1–10 cm across), shrubs, forbs, and grasses were recorded in one of seven cover classes: 0, absent; 1, \1%; 2, 1–5%; 3, 5–25%; 4, 26–50%; 5, 51–75%; 6, 76–100%). The association between ground cover characteristics and seedling and sapling abundance was then identified using a Pearson’s product moment correlation. Interannual climate variation The impact of interannual variation in climate on the temporal pattern of post-fire regeneration was investigated using correlation analysis. We used climate data for the period 1962 to 2006 from the Manzanita Lake, California climate station to represent climate variation in the study area (WRCC 2010). We used snowpack depth and water content data from the lower Lassen snow course for the same period as a proxy for both the opening of the site in the spring and also for the availability of groundwater in this excessively well drained site (CA DWR 2009; USDA 123 230 Landscape Ecol (2011) 26:225–237 and down basal area (21.2 m2/ha) with only 3.0 m2/ ha of live basal area. White fir and red fir were common in the plots but neither species accounted for [10% of basal area in a plot. Jeffrey pine was present in a few plots. Live tree and overall tree density was highest in the low severity plots. Lodgepole averaged 956 live stems/ha and 844 down and dead stems/ha in low severity plots and 216 live and 616 down and dead stems/ha in the high severity plots (Table 1). White fir and red fir both had higher densities in high severity plots than in moderate and low severity plots. Jeffrey pine densities were overall very low, with most individuals in high severity plots. The average size structure of all plots was broadly similar across severity patches (Fig. 3). The size structures in the low and moderate severity plots were nearly identical, but the moderate severity plots had more large seedlings. Large seedlings were more abundant than small seedlings in the regeneration layer in high severity plots. High severity plots also contained an average of 172 stems ha-1 of fast growing lodgepole pine in the 5–15 cm diameter class that established post-fire beginning in 1984. In general, all plots exhibited size structures dominated NRCS 2010). We correlated the frequency of establishment dates of seedlings, saplings, and trees with seasonal and annual average temperature (n = 5 comparisons) and seasonal and annual total precipitation and snowfall (n = 5 comparisons) for the current year and the previous year. Finally, we correlated the frequency of establishment dates with maximum snow water equivalent and snow pack depth for the current year, previous year, and for three year averages (n = 12 comparisons). We used a Bonferroni’s correction to reduce Type I errors in all cases. Results Stand structure Basal area in all plots was dominated by lodgepole and ranged from 11.4 m2/ha to 73.9 m2/ha (Table 1). Low severity plots averaged 45.3 m2/ha of live basal area and 9.9 m2/ha of dead and down basal area. Moderate severity plots had roughly equal amounts of live (21.9 m2 ha-1) and dead and down basal area (16.7 m2 ha-1). High severity plots were mostly dead Table 1 Average (±s.e.) of basal area and density (ha-1) by patch severity and tree status (live, snag, or dead and down) Severity: Basal Area (m2/ha) Low Density (stems/ha) Moderate High Low Moderate High Abco Live 0.2 ± 0.0 10 ± 0.8 0.4 ± 1.1 44 ± 67 48 ± 111 28 ± 38 Dead & down 0.0 ± 0.2 0.8 ± 2.7 1.6 ± 0.6 4 ± 13 156 ± 130 300 ± 178 Snag 0.0 ± 0.0 0.1 ± 0.3 0.3 ± 1.1 0±0 8 ± 17 4 ± 13 Abma Live 0.0 ± 0.0 0.5 ± 0.3 1.0 ± 2.7 0±0 56 ± 150 28 ± 53 Dead & down 0.0 ± 0.0 0.1 ± 1.0 2.0 ± 2.1 0±0 24 ± 43 188 ± 261 Snag 0.0 ± 0.0 0.0 ± 0.1 0.0 ± 0.0 0±0 4 ± 13 4 ± 13 3.0 ± 11.6 Pico Live 956 ± 352 540 ± 240 216 ± 183 9.9 ± 11.0 16.7 ± 9.1 21.2 ± 4.6 844 ± 697 744 ± 444 616 ± 238 Snag Pije 6.1 ± 4.4 0.9 ± 1.9 0.4 ± 0.7 244 ± 183 28 ± 50 12 ± 19 Live 0.0 ± 0.0 0.0 ± 0.0 0.0 ± 4.2 0±0 4 ± 13 4 ± 13 Dead & Down 45.3 ± 6.9 21.9 ± 6.7 Dead & down 0.0 ± 0.0 0.0 ± 0.0 1.7 ± 0.0 0±0 0±0 20 ± 28 Snag 0.0 ± xx 0.0 ± xx 0.0 ± xx 0±0 0±0 0±0 Values represent average over 10 plots in each severity class. Double x’s (xx) indicate there was not enough data to compute the statistic. Abbreviations are Abco: A. concolor; Abma A. magnifica; Pico P. contorta; Pije P. jeffreyi 123 Landscape Ecol (2011) 26:225–237 231 Fig. 3 Size structure for low-, moderate-, and highseverity patches. Each graph shows the average size structure of 10 plots. Xaxis shows the upper limit of the size classes in centimeters (cm). Note that the Y-axis is logarithmic for all three graphs. Abbreviations are as in Table 1 by regeneration, with progressively fewer trees in larger size classes. Regeneration Overall patterns Total regeneration was most abundant (P = 0.015) in the moderate severity plots (mean = 4,416 stems ha-1) and lowest in the high severity plots (mean = 1532 stems ha-1). Lodgepole pine seedlings and saplings dominated the regeneration layer in moderate severity plots while white fir was most abundant in low severity plots (Table 2). When all species were analyzed together, regeneration was significantly different for all three severity types (ANOVA, P = 0.015) however, post-hoc tests were significant only for white fir. Lodgepole pine regeneration was proportionally more abundant in high severity plots (77.0% of total) compared to a more even distribution of lodgepole pine and white fir in the moderate and low severity plots. Moreover, the proportion of lodgepole pine saplings was higher in high severity plots (172 stems ha-1; 14.6%) than in low (28 stems ha-1; 1.8%) and moderate (108 stems ha-1; 4.0%) severity plots. There were no white fir or red fir saplings in high severity plots and the few Jeffrey pine seedlings and saplings were present only in moderate and high severity plots. Regeneration age Counted and adjusted ages of seedlings, saplings, and small trees were widely dispersed in low-severity plots, but more narrowly dispersed in both moderateand high-severity plots (Fig. 4). High-severity plots contained very few individuals that were estimated to be older than 24 years. Nearly all ([97%) stems in 123 232 Landscape Ecol (2011) 26:225–237 Table 2 Average (± s.e.) seedling and sapling density and ages in low, moderate, and high severity patches Severity: Age (years) Density (stems/ha) Low Moderate 12.7 ± 8.3 12.1 ± 6.9 High Low Moderate High 8.4 ± 5.6 1,584 ± 1,352 1,296 ± 1,181 140 ± 197 Abco Small seedling Large seedling 31.0 ± 6.9 30.4 ± 7.2 27.2 ± 4.1 280 ± 376 80 ± 92 12 ± 26 Sapling 49.2 ± 16.5 44.3 ± xx xx ± xx 44 ± 44 4 ± 13 0±0 60 ± 93 Abma Small seedling 16.9 ± 9.7 13.9 ± 9.2 10.4 ± 4.9 76 ± 212 192 ± 365 Large seedling 34.6 ± 16.6 29.7 ± 6.5 xx ± xx 28 ± 75 20 ± 39 0±0 Sapling 51.3 ± xx 44.3 ± xx xx ± xx 16 ± 51 8 ± 25 0±0 420 ± 576 Pico Small seedling 9.9 ± 3.5 11.1 ± 3.1 10.9 ± 2.5 1,412 ± 1,755 1,800 ± 1,482 Large seedling 18.3 ± 5.4 17.0 ± 2.3 15.9 ± 2.3 120 ± 217 812 ± 563 588 ± 820 Sapling 16.7 ± 16.0 20.8 ± 3.6 19.2 ± 2.7 28 ± 42 108 ± 152 172 ± 352 Pije Small seedling 7.1 ± 0.0 9.3 ± 2.1 9.8 ± 2.1 8 ± 25 76 ± 93 68 ± 65 Large seedling Sapling xx ± xx xx ± xx 13.9 ± 5.2 xx ± xx 13.0 ± 2.3 14.0 ± 2.2 0±0 0±0 20 ± 39 0±0 64 ± 125 8 ± 17 Ages were determined from modified whorl counts as described in the ‘‘Methods’’ section. Densities are averaged over 10 plots per severity patch with standard errors shown. Double x’s (xx) and abbreviations are as in Table 1 Fig. 4 Box and whisker plot of adjusted ages for all P. contorta individuals showing distributions by size class and by patch fire severity, either high, moderate, or low severity. The heavy line is the median while the boxes extend to the first and third quartiles. The whiskers extend to the last data point that is no more than 1.5 times the interquartile range from the box. Outliers are shown as open circles. Vertical dashed line shows the year of the fire the high severity plots established post-fire, and corrected tree, sapling and seedlings ages were B24 years old as expected but a few older stems were present (Fig. 5). Ages of seedling and saplings 123 in the low severity plots had a wider range, up to 56 years. The moderate and low severity plots contained a few small diameter stems that possibly had survived the 1984 Badger fire. Landscape Ecol (2011) 26:225–237 233 Fig. 5 Bar chart of average ground cover characteristics for low-, moderate-, and high-severity plots. An asterisk (*) indicates categories that were significantly different (ANOVA, P \ 0.05) between severity classes was negatively associated with log (P = 0.007) and rock fragment (P = 0.044) cover. There was no association between regeneration and microsite characteristics in either the moderate or high severity plots. However, in low severity plots, lodgepole pine seedlings and saplings were positively associated with percent cover of shrubs, forbs, and grasses (results not shown). Interannual climate variation Fig. 6 Scatter plot and regression line of the negative exponential relationship between total P. contorta regeneration and distance to the nearest cone-bearing individual by plot The abundance of lodgepole seedlings was related to temporal variability in snowpack conditions. The number of seedlings was negatively correlated with the 3 year average maximum snow depth (r = -0.59, P = 0.0027). The density of regeneration, however, was unrelated to snow water equivalent or seasonal or total temperature or precipitation. Spatial patterns of regeneration density Microsite effects on regeneration Ground cover of logs and rock fragments differed (logs: P = 0.029; rock fragments: P = 0.004) among severity classes. However, there was no difference between percent cover of rocks, forbs, grasses, or shrubs. Ground cover of logs and rock fragments was highest in high severity plots, and decreased as severity decreased (Fig. 5). Microsite effects on species’ abundance patterns were negligible. Across all plots, white fir regeneration Distance to the nearest cone bearing lodgepole pine individual was a significant predictor of total regeneration in high severity plots. The negative exponential function used to model the number of seedlings and saplings yielded a significant relationship with distance (r2 = 0.53, P = 0.025, Fig. 6). Kuiper’s Test of Uniformity indicated that the directions to the nearest cone bearing individual were different from a uniform distribution of directions (P = 0.038). The circular correlation test comparing wind directions 123 234 and seed source directions was not significant (P = 0.992). A linear regression using distance as the independent variable and average estimated age of lodgepole pine regeneration was not significant (P = 0.062). Discussion Regeneration success in high severity fire patches is dependent on propagule availability. High and moderate severity plots were dominated by lodgepole pine regeneration, while low severity plots had roughly equal amounts of lodgepole pine and white fir regeneration. Differences may be explained by each species’ seed weight, and the proximity to seed sources. Lodgepole pine seeds are very light, and in this variety may number up to 258,000/kg (Lotan and Critchfield 1990) while white fir seeds are heavier, numbering 19,000–39,000/kg (Laacke 1990). In low and moderate severity plots, trees that survived the fire provided an ample seed source for both species, explaining their relative parity in low severity plots and the abundance of small white fir seedlings in the moderate severity plots. In high severity patches seeds would need to be blown in which might favor the lighter seeded lodgepole pine given equal distances to seed-source. A similar effect of seed weight and seed-source proximity on post-fire regeneration of red fir in Oregon was identified by Chappell and Agee (1996). Red fir has heavier seeds than white fir, and in the Oregon study, the number of red fir seedlings was negatively associated with factors that would influence propagule availability, such as distance to nearest patch capable of propagule production, patch size, and percent mortality of conspecific basal area from fire (Chappell and Agee 1996). Moreover, red fir seedling density was positively related to live residual conspecific basal area (Chappell and Agee 1996). Each of these effects, though not all tested here, are analogous for white fir in the current study. Interannual variation in successful establishment by lodgepole pine was correlated with antecedent weather conditions during key stages in this species’ regeneration cycle. Sierra lodgepole pine cones mature, open, and release seeds in the fall and then germinate in the spring (Lotan and Critchfield 1990). These seeds then overwinter under the snow, and 123 Landscape Ecol (2011) 26:225–237 germination begins soon after snowmelt, but as late as the first day of summer in this location (Lotan and Critchfield 1990). Our results also indicate that latelying snowpack, here analyzed as annual maximum snowpack depth, has a strong negative effect on current year seedling establishment. Mountain hemlock (T. mertensiansa) regeneration in LAVO is also known to be negatively impacted by deep, late-lying snow (Taylor 1995). There was a weak but consistently negative correlation between winter, spring, and summer temperatures and current year snowpack (results not shown) and no relationship between current year temperatures and regeneration density. Thus it seems that late-lying snowpack inhibits germination in the current year. However, the relationship between current year temperatures and snowpack perhaps indicates that current year temperatures are less important to germination and that snowpack is a limiting factor in the late spring. Microsite influences on establishment have been demonstrated for a number of tree species in the Pacific Northwest. Perhaps most influential is moisture stress, which has been shown to significantly alter red fir regeneration and survival (Selter et al. 1986; Chappell and Agee 1996). In western hemlockSitka spruce (Tsuga heterophylla-Picea sitchensis) forests, nurse logs are critically important substrates promoting establishment (Harmon and Franklin 1989). In an experimental regeneration study of ponderosa pine in central Oregon using ponderosa pine seeds, seedlings germinated better when buried and shaded to simulate rodent caches (Keyes et al. 2009). In our study, measured variation in microsites had little to no effect on establishment of lodgepole pine in high severity patches but there was a negative effect of logs and rock fragments on white fir. However, lodgepole pine seedlings were positively related to cover of shrubs, grasses, and forbs in low severity plots. Yet these types of cover tended to be higher in high severity plots, and this relationship was only discovered in our post-hoc analysis. The negative effects of logs and rocks on white fir regeneration could be artifacts of the fact that these types of cover were higher in high severity plots. Here white fir seedlings would be subject to increased moisture stress, akin to the effect of moisture stress on red fir regeneration (Chappell and Agee 1996). Disturbance intensity can influence plant regeneration through its modification of the post-disturbance Landscape Ecol (2011) 26:225–237 environment, most directly through plant and propagule mortality (Halpern and Franklin 1990), but also through modification of abiotic conditions (Chappell and Agee 1996). The highest abundance of lodgepole pine regeneration and the highest total amount of regeneration was in the moderate severity plots. This suggests that moderate levels of disturbance promote the optimal conditions for the emergence and establishment of the two dominant species in this system. These patches, with some areas of full sun and some shaded pockets, as well as their abundant local seed sources, would promote both lodgepole pine regeneration on mineral soil in full sun (Lotan and Critchfield 1990), and white fir regeneration on mineral soil in partial shade (Laacke 1990). In contrast, severely burned patches, with no canopies and higher moisture stress, tend to favor lodgepole pine. The abiotic conditions across the majority of the severely burned areas are harsh enough to preclude establishment by all species except lodgepole pine which is noted for its wide ecological amplitude (Franklin and Dyrness 1988). The lodgepole pine stand we investigated occupies a pumice flat characterized by cold air drainage (Franklin and Dyrness 1988), short frost-free periods (USDANRCS 2010), and soils that are very well drained, with extremely limited water holding capacity (USDA-NRCS 2010). The timing of high severity patch regeneration is thus limited by seed source proximity and the composition of regeneration is limited by abiotic conditions. The empirical relationship demonstrated here between distance and regeneration abundance illustrates a strong spatial influence on patch infilling in this system. We determined the ages of over 1,200 seedlings and saplings, and greater than 98% of stems in the high and moderate fire severity plots were B24 years old—a pattern consistent with post-fire establishment following the 1984 fire. Seedlings and saplings that survived the fire in high severity patches were found in small unburned areas skipped by the fire similar to surviving Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine in the 1988 Yellowstone fires (Turner et al. 1997; Nyland 1998). The distribution of ages of seedlings and saplings was not uniform, however. A post-fire peak of regeneration centered around the 15year age class is notably evident. Following this age class, counted individuals decrease towards the present; however, yearly counts were never \60% 235 of the maximum number. Interannual variation in maximum snowpack depth indicates that lodgepole pine regeneration is negatively impacted by late-lying snow. Because all years had a large number of regenerating individuals, we posit that seasonal climatic conditions only mediate regeneration and are not limiting. While some years may be more favorable for regeneration than others, no single year can be identified that was particularly favorable or unfavorable. In contrast, the peaks of regeneration found by Chappell and Agee (1996) were considerably narrower, occurred in a 3–5 year window following their studied fires, and were hypothesized to coincide with periodic peaks in red fir cone production. Since lodgepole pine produces seed annually, and climate was not a factor, we hypothesize that this pulse represents some kind of distance delay followed by the sustained influence of wind speed and direction on regeneration density. Nyland’s (1998) work on Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine stand development patterns hypothesizes different pathways depending on the overall level of serotiny within the stand. The Converging Tree Island posits that widely spaced legacy lodgepole pine slowly create expanding islands of regeneration which over time merge to form a closed, multi-aged canopy (Nyland 1998). The statistical work presented here supports the idea that Sierran lodgepole, with no evidence of serotiny, follows the Converging Tree Island Pathway (Nyland 1998). Our study presented empirical evidence of this Pathway by establishing a strong relationship between the total number of regenerating stems and the distance and direction to the nearest cone bearing Sierran lodgepole pine individual. The relationship between the amount of regeneration and the distance to the nearest cone bearing individual strongly followed the negative exponential dispersal kernel that has been proposed by a number of authors (Willson 1992; Borchert et al. 2003; Greene et al. 2004). This relationship, while strong at first, may break down over time as seedlings mature and begin to produce their own cones. In Badger Flat, 11 cone-bearing trees had established after the 1984 burn and they had an average age 23 years. If lodgepole pine had serotinous cones in this study area, post-fire regeneration would have been expected to be greatest in the high severity plots, as was found in the post-fire period in Yellowstone National Park (Turner et al. 1997). 123 236 Our stands exhibited no relationship between pre-fire live basal area and the total number of regenerating individuals. Our estimate of pre-fire live basal area for all plots is similar to live basal area of unburned stands (P = 0.055, t-test) in nearby unburned lodgepole pine stands (Taylor 2000). Because the direction to the cone bearing individual was different than expected at random and because the dominant direction of seed source was not different from the dominant wind direction, we hypothesize that wind and not rodents are the primary dispersal vector for lodgepole pine in LVNP. Rodents prefer to cache larger seeds, especially the large seeds of Jeffrey, ponderosa, and sugar pine and prefer to consume lodgepole pine seeds immediately (Vander Wall 2008). In our system, the large seeded red and white firs probably complement the supply of Jeffrey pine seeds available to rodents for caching. The small seeded lodgepole pine, however, is very rarely cached and rarely germinates when cached (Vander Wall 2008). In contrast, Jeffrey pine seeds are very often cached, and regenerate at much higher rates when cached (Vander Wall 2008). Thus, we hypothesize that wind dispersal of lodgepole pine seeds is the dominant mechanism of propagule availability into the area of the Badger Fire. The relatively slow rate of infilling of lodgepole pine regeneration after the Badger Fire in the high severity patches raises questions about the use of static age structures to identify historic fire severity patterns. While Johnson et al. (1994) examined problems with static age structure interpretation from an aspatial point of view, our data suggest that spatial variability in regeneration abundance and timing itself can lead to false interpretations regarding disturbance dynamics that shape the static age structure of lodgepole pine forests. Since patch size and shape influence the tree age distribution, inferences about fire severity and regeneration dynamics may be complicated. Since the interior of a patch fills later than the edges, aggregating plot level age structures may indicate more than one regeneration pulse, or may reveal an age structure that is typical for a continuously regenerating forest. This could lead to the erroneous conclusion that tree fall gap dynamics or low or moderate severity fires are the predominant disturbances in the ecosystem when it may be high severity fire. 123 Landscape Ecol (2011) 26:225–237 Acknowledgments A. Hurley, T. Korkmaz, and E. 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