The Seventh Japan–Russia Energy and Environment Dialogue in Niigata
K-MINAMI
Energy Relationship Between
Japan and Russia
Ryo Minami
Director, Petroleum and Natural Gas Division
Agency for Natural Resources and Energy
Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI)
Japan
High Dependency On Fossil Fuels For Power Generation
¾ The nuclear power ratio in domestic power generation has decreased after the Great
East Japan Earthquake due to the long-term shutdown of nuclear power plants .
¾ On the other hand, the thermal power ratio has increased to 90%. Currently, LNG
thermal power alone accounts for nearly 50% of domestic power generation.
Trend in Domestic Power Generation Ratio
100%
90%
80%
32%
70%
60%
2%
9%
12%
9%
79%
12%
16%
8%
60%
5%
50%
40%
30%
89%
32%
48%
43%
13%
0%
11%
89%
11%
0%
12%
88%
10%
0%
11%
89%
9%
48%
51%
52%
53%
28%
27%
26%
27%
1%
9%
90%
32%
20%
10%
23%
12%
23%
25%
FY2010
FY2011
FY2012
2%
0%
Coal
LNG
Oil, etc
1%
0%
FY2013
Hydro, etc
FY2014 April
Nuclear
Nuclear
0%
May
0%
June
Thermal
Source: Compiled by METI through power company hearing etc
©ERINA
The Seventh Japan–Russia Energy and Environment Dialogue in Niigata
K-MINAMI
Increase in LNG Demand and LNG prices
¾ After the Great East Japan Earthquake, Japan’s LNG demand increased by 24%
due to the shutdown of nuclear power plants.
䠄)<07$ĺ)<07$䠅
¾ In addition, Japan’s LNG import price, linked to crude oil import price, has soared.
¾ As a result, Japan recorded a trade deficit for the first time in 31 years.
Japan’s Energy Demand
Natural Gas price trend䠄US$ / MMBTU䠅
25
2010FY to 2013FY
Increase by 20 M tons
䠄1015 kcal䠅
18.7$/MMBTU
20
㻢
㻡
87 MTA 88 MTA
71 MTA 83 MTA
㻠
15
㻻㼠㼔㼑㼞㼟
15.9$/MMBTU
㻺㼡㼏㼘㼑㼍㼞
10
㻴㼥㼐㼞㼛
㻟
㻳㼍㼟
㻞
㻻㼕㼘
7.12$/MMBTU
5
㻯㼛㼍㼘
㻝
㻜
3.90$/MMBTU
0
㻞㻜㻝㻜㻲㼅 㻞㻜㻝㻝㻲㼅 㻞㻜㻝㻞㻲㼅 㻞㻜㻝㻟㻲㼅
Source: The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan
3
Update on Restart of Japan’s Nuclear Power Plants
¾ 20 units (in blue squares) are under review for restart by the Nuclear Regulation
Authority (NRA) in accordance with its new safety regulations.
¾ Two of the NPPs, Sendai 1st and 2nd units, have just got the first permission
towards their restart.
1
2
3
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
4
5
6
7
1
1
2
3
1
1
2
1
2
1
2
2
3
3
3
3
4
1
4
3
2
3
4
3
4
5
4
1
2
NPP in operation
NPP in shutdown
1
2
3
Under review by Nuclear
Regulation Authority(NRA)
©ERINA
The Seventh Japan–Russia Energy and Environment Dialogue in Niigata
K-MINAMI
Importance of Russia to Japan
¾ Russia is one of the world’s top resource-rich countries for both oil and gas.
¾ Japan imports over 80% of its oil from the Middle East. In this regard, Russia is very
important in our mission to reduce our dependency on the Middle East.
¾ The geological proximity to Japan also makes Russia an attractive source of supply.
Japan’s LNG Import䠄
䠄2013䠅
Japan’s Oil Import䠄2013䠅
Indonesia
3%
Iran
5%
Russia
7%
Kuwait
7%
Nigeria
Other
4%
6%
Oman
5%
Brunei
6%
Other
10%
Saudi Arabia
32%
Total Oil Imports
3.65 million b/d
䠄2013䠅
Qatar13%
Total LNG
Imports
87 MTA
䠄2013䠅
UAE
6%
Indonesia
7%
Russia
10%
UAE
23%
Australia
21%
Qatar
18%
Malaysia
17%
5
Oil & LNG imports from Russia
¾ In addition to oil exports from Sakhalin I (2005) and Sakhalin II (1999), the
construction of ESPO (2009, 2012) has led to the increase of oil imports from Russia.
Currently, Japan imports 7% of its oil from Russia.
¾ Japan imports 10% of its LNG from Sakhalin II, which started LNG exports to Japan
from March 2009.
Russian shares in
Japan’s total oil imports
ESPO started
oil exports
8.0%
10.0%
7.1%
7.0%
6.0%
3.5%
2.0%
1.0%
0.7%
0.7%
8.6%
9.0%
9.1%
4.4%
3.4%
S1 started
oil exports
9.5% 9.8%
7.0%
4.6%
5.0%
3.0%
6.9%
8.0%
S2 started fullyear production
4.0%
Russian shares in
Japan’s total LNG imports
6.0%
5.0%
4.2%
ESPO Phase II
Started oil
exports
3.0%
2.0%
0.0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Year
Source䠖Natural Resources and Energy Statistics
4.3%
4.0%
1.0%
0.0%
S2 started
LNG exports
0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
0.0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Year
Source䠖MOF Trade Statistics
©ERINA
The Seventh Japan–Russia Energy and Environment Dialogue in Niigata
K-MINAMI
Oil and Gas Existing Projects in Russia
Sakhalin II
Sakhalin I
䞉Japanese Firms
䠄Mitsui & Co. Ltd,
Mitsubishi Corporation)
䞉Crude Oil exports to
Japan (since 1999)
䞉LNG exports to Japan
(since 2009)
䞉Japanese Firm (SODECO)
䞉Crude Oil exports to Japan
(since 2005)
䞉Natural Gas undeveloped
ESPO Phase I
(Sep. 2009)
ESPO Phase II
(Dec. 2012)
Gas Pipeline
Oil Pipeline
Russian Oil and Gas Future Projects in Russia
Yamal LNG Project
Magadan 2 and 3
Far East LNG
Project
Sakhalin II
Expansion Project
Gas pipeline
Oil pipeline
Vladivostok LNG Project
8
©ERINA
The Seventh Japan–Russia Energy and Environment Dialogue in Niigata
K-MINAMI
Deep Methane Hydrate
䕿In 2001, deep methane hydrate deposit surveys and R&D were launched as a national project. In 2006,
detailed survey to identify the amount of deposits was completed. In 2008, onshore gas production test in
Canada was conducted.
䕿In March 2013, the world’s first experiment of methane hydrate gas production at sea was conducted using
the depressurization method.
䕿Based on the results of the production experiment, the Japanese government established a policy target in
which the technology for commercialized gas production will be prepared by FY 2018. Technological
development will be promoted so that a project for commercialization led by private businesses can be
started between 2023 and 2027.
<The First Offshore Gas Production Test>
<Distribution of Methane Hydrate>
Concentrations of MH are confirmed
Concentrations of MH are suggested
Concentrations of MH are not suggested
Eastern Nankai Trough
As for the Deep Methane Hydrate, it is
estimated that in the eastern Nankai trough
area, there are original gas in place as much
as 10 years of the natural gas consumed in
Japan.
Flare from offshore production test
Deep Sea Drilling Vessel “CHIKYU”
Gas production test was conducted off the coast of the Atsumi and Shima
peninsulas for about 6 days. The total output was approximately 120,000
cubic meters, and the average daily output was approximately 20,000 cubic
meters.
(Reference)
In 2008, onshore production test by using the depressurization method was
conducted in Canada for 5.5 days. The total output was approximately 13,000
cubic meters, and the average daily output was approximately 2,400 cubic
meters.
9
Shallow Methane Hydrate
䕿As for the shallow methane hydrate, deposit of which have been confirmed mainly in the Sea of Japan, a wide-area distribution
survey will be conducted for 3 years from FY2013 to assess the amount of deposit. In FY2013, wide-area geological survey on
the offshore Joetsu district and west of the Noto peninsula was conducted, and geological structure was confirmed.
䕿As a result of the analysis, ”Gas Chimney structure”, a potential area for methane hydrate bearing structure, was confirmed as
225 sites in survey area. In addition, they are observed to be significantly large, with diameters from about 200m to about
500m, occasionally reaching up to about 900m.
䕿It was also revealed for the first time that methane hydrate is densely distributed within gas chimney structure.
䕿In FY2014, a wide-area survey was continuously conducted along with geological sampling for methane hydrate evaluation.
<Target areas for shallow methane hydrate>
䞉FY 2013 䠖 Offshore Joetsu, west of the Noto
Peninsula
䞉FY 2014 䠖 Around Oki islands, Offshore Joetsu,
Offshore Akita and Yamagata,
Offshore Hidaka
䞉FY 2015 䠖 Offshore Hokkaido㻌 etc.
FY 26,7
2015ᖺᗘ
ᖹᡂ
⛅⏣䞉ᒣᙧἈ
Offshore
Hokkaido
Gas Chimney
FY 2014䡚
Offshore Akita
and Yamagata
FY 2014䡚
Offshore Hidaka
Example of cross-section
diagram of the sea bed
FY 2013䡚
Offshore Joetsu
FY 2013䡚
West of Noto Peninsula
FY 25
2014䡚
ᖹᡂ
ᖺᗘ
Around
Oki islands
⬟Ⓩ༙ᓥす᪉Ἀ
Marine resource research vessel “Hakurei”
10
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